2013 Week #11

Jason and I go head-to-head on seven games this week as I continue my season-long quest to catch him in the standings after his torrid Week 1.  Here are this week's selections:

	Thu. Nite
Ind (6-3)	2½	TENN (4-5)	Ind 30-27		Tenn	Ind
	Sunday
NYJ (5-4)	1	BUF (3-7)			NY	NY
TB (1-8)	1	Atl (2-7)			TB	TB
Det (6-3)	1	PIT (3-6)			Det	Det
PHI (5-5)	4½	Wash (3-6)			Wash	Phi
CHI (5-4)	3	Bal (4-5)			Bal	Chi
CIN (6-4)	5½	Cle (4-5)			Cin	Cle
HOU (2-7)	10	Oak (3-6)			Hou	Oak
Ariz (5-4)	9½	JACK (1-8)			Ariz	Ariz
SD (4-5)	1	MIA (4-5)			SD	Mia
SEA (9-1)	12	Min (2-7)			Sea	Sea
NO (7-2)	3½	SF (6-3)			SF	NO
NYG (3-6)	4	GB (5-4)			NY	GB
	Sun. Nite
DEN (8-1)	7½	KC (9-0)			Den	Den
	Mon. Nite
CAR (6-3)	3	NE (7-2)			NE	NE

All of our thoughts and observations can be heard tonight at 10P Central at our show page:  blogtalkradio.com/inmuchlessdetail

2013 Week 10: What I Learned

• Two weeks in a row since Jay and I laughed at the pathetic record of the editor of a blog on Yahoo! Sports that the blogger has beaten me in picks ATS.  Grrr.  He won seven this week, although one was Arizona giving 2½ in their 3-point win over Houston, which would be an extra win for me with that line.  But no matter.  If I can't start winning weeks over a schlub thirty games under .500 on the year, then there's truly no chance in hell of catching Jason.
• Games in no detail:  Raiders-Giants (just two horrible teams with two horrible QBs making horrible mistakes and turnovers), Jaguars-Titans (inspired effort by Jags off the bye assisted by Ryan Fitzpatrick fumbling at the very worst time), Bills-Steelers (if Pittsburgh is going to use six offensive linemen in protection and injure the best playmaker on the other team every game, bet their unders the rest of the year).
• When two crappy defenses get together on Thursday night, the results can be predictable, and I did yell "Take the over!" when picking the Vikings to knock off the Redskins.  But how it happened was very weird:  Washington played classic Shannyball, gashing Minnesota on the ground relentlessly, and then stopped doing so late in the game and let the Vikes rush the passer and secure the win.  Both RBs--Alfred Morris and Adrian Peterson--gave clinics on how to hit the hole.  But in the 2nd half it was Christian Ponder who outplayed RG3, making quick decisions on throws and scrambles.  As I Tweeted, it figured that Ponder's two smart decisions with his feet got his arm crunched, and he had to leave the game.  But he still led the Vikings to a win.  Griffin had fun going downfield through the air on Minnesota, but he was still getting punished high and low on those read-options.  It's getting to where the Shanahan Boyz are going to have to consider taking that concept out of the playbook entirely.  Griffin still isn't fast enough to make the defense pay when he does keep it, so what's the point?
• Jason in his recap was incorrect in having Cincinnati go 3-and-out in overtime to give Baltimore the chance to drive and win.  I wish.  Cincy stubbornly went on 4th-and-short for the 5th time in that game, and it didn't work.  I'm not sure what got into Marvin Lewis, but he was adamant that his Bengals could convert any short-yardage situation against the Ravens front seven, and it did work three of the five times, but the two failures were very costly.  That OT decision was to go or kick a 50-yard FG into some wind with Mike Nugent, and call me an idiot, but I'd go for the three.  I know Giovani Bernard had success running around the Ravens, but he's not a hammer in short-yardage.  The Bengals and OC Jay Gruden tried to get cute by swinging the pass out to Bernard, who then (cue the Benny Hill theme) ran backwards trying to outrun the defenders to no avail.  Of all the options, even punting would have been better than that.  As for the rest of the game, Cincy fell behind because Andy Dalton was again very off, and I don't have a clue why he's been off lately.  Baltimore couldn't put them away because they still can't run vertically.  Their best run was an 18-yard end-around.  I still don't think Baltimore is a better team than Cincinnati.
• Congrats to Jay Cutler for finding his way into the Cowboy Club, and that's the club where guys get full of imaginary testosterone and try to play through some injury that they need to rest, like Robert Griffin III in the playoffs last season.  Cutler now has found himself on both sides of the coin, after being called a pussy for not playing through a knee injury in the playoffs a few years ago that turned out to be torn ligaments.  The guy can't win, I suppose, but he deserves some blame for trying to turn torn groin muscles into a one-week absence.  His coach Marc Trestman also deserves some blame for letting Cutler try to play hero.  Trust in Trest for on-the-field decisions, not off.  And any fan or player who criticized Cutler in that playoff loss to Green Bay also deserves blame, because I'm sure the pressure of that returning hot air made him decide to press his timeline.  The Lions-Bears game Sunday was close in the 1st half, then the team with more healthy athletes took over, meaning the team with Matt Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Reggie Bush.  You know who else looked healthy out there?  Josh McCown.  Wonder how the outcome may have changed if he played the whole way.
• And speaking of athletes not being healthy and influencing games, Green Bay started the day with an experienced QB on the sideline and ended with two as Seneca Wallace checked out after the first series, leaving the Pack Attack to someone named Scott Tolzien.  That turned out as expected.  It was funny because both the Packers and the Eagles came out running their offenses with great pace, but one team's been doing that since the beginning of the season, and it showed.  That GB possession was disastrous.  Not only did Wallace get hurt, but Mason Crosby doinked the FG attempt off the upright giving Philadelphia great field position, then two plays later, Nick Foles flung a ball into double coverage that got tipped by both defenders into DeSean Jackson's hands for a TD, and the game was over.  Shady McCoy kept running laterally around B.J. Raji and Johnny Jolly to move the sticks, and Tolzien kept throwing with almost no accuracy.  RODGERS!!  DISCOUNT DOUBLE-CHECK YO ASS BACK SOON!!
• Indianapolis came home to continue their momentum from the miraculous win in Houston, and instead played host to The Tavon Austin Show.  Tavon was THE SHIT, sprinting to and fro on punt returns and long bombs that made Kellen Clemens look like a competent QB.  It was the outburst that people had been waiting for from Austin and his world-class speed.  In picking the Colts to win by 10, I and many others forgot how dreadful the Indy defense can sometimes be.  And in hoping that Andrew Luck would lead another comeback, we also overlooked the loss of Reggie Wayne and the lack of Colts weapons.  That Houston win was on the back of T.Y. Hilton, and whatever you think of him, he can't do that shit every week.  And Darrius Heyward-Bey isn't consistent either.  Indy will lose games against teams with offensive outbursts like what Tavon Austin did because the Luck miracles of last year had the consummate pro Wayne in common.  The Rams can be dangerous with Austin and that defensive line.
• I hate to use the term THE DRIZZLING SHITS on what the Atlanta Falcons did against Seattle, because it was so much worse than that.  They gave up points in the 2nd quarter on a FG and then a flea-flicker from their 43 when they know Russell Wilson throws into the end zone whenever he gets across midfield.  And they fucking quit right there.  Matt Ryan had little help from his beat-up receivers, he welcomed Roddy White back with one throw for 20 yards, and the defense lost interest after the flea-flicker.  So sad to watch.  I've seen teams quit before, and I'll warn you, eventually they get a 2nd wind and start playing better in the last few games of the year because of personal pride and maybe fear of losing jobs in the offseason.  But until you see a glimmer of heart, do not touch the Atlanta Falcons with a ten-foot pole.  And Seattle was the same plodding, deliberate offense in the 1st quarter that they have been on the road all year before Atlanta quit, so be careful about putting a lot of love on the Seahawks.
• And be careful about believing in the Carolina Panthers, too.  San Francisco led 9-0 before the radio silence on offense commenced, and yeah, Carolina gets credit for that, but look critically at that 49ers offense.  They came into the game dead last in passing yards per game, and then their best receiver, TE Vernon Davis, got concussed and missed the 2nd half.  Something's happened to the magic created last year when Coach Insane, Jim Harbaugh, got his hands on Colin Kaepernick.  And for that duo to not rediscover it during the bye week scares me greatly.  I thought they would have all kinds of wrinkles and fakes and reverses ready for this important game.  Maybe they underestimated the Panthers, just as Jason and I did.  On defense, the Niners got sliced by Cam Newton on passes when rushing four, but got hits and sacks when blitzing, which is how they held Carolina to 10.  The only big Panther plays all day were the DeAngelo Williams TD run and the Ted Ginn punt return which set up the game-winning FG.  Other than that, Carolina got excellent punts to place San Francisco in terrible field position, and they never overcame.  That's got to improve if SF wants to be taken seriously as a Super Bowl contender.  Do they need Michael Crabtree back that badly?
• Allow me to bitch and moan about a play that cost me a pick, which I'm good at doing.  Arizona led Houston by 10 points in the 4th quarter when the Texans' Case Keenum underthrew a corner end zone pass for Andre Johnson that Cardinals CB Patrick Peterson had in his sights, to the extent that Peterson put two hands on the pass while positioned in front of Johnson.  The hand of God or something flicked the ball out of Peterson's grasp, and Johnson corralled it for a TD catch.  That's some bullshit, period.  Now that that's established, I'll admit that Houston's effort was very good and they looked like a team at least equal to Arizona, if not better.  No slick, athletic RBs (Arian Foster's having back surgery, ending his season) means more straightforward hammering between the tackles with Ben Tate when ahead and more creative chance-taking with Keenum when behind, and it almost worked out.  They fell behind on a Keenum fumble recovered for a TD, which is the same basic result as when Matt Schaub tosses a TD to the other team, so the Texans could have thrown up their hands and quit, but they didn't.  And I liked Arizona's effort too, especially the creativity with RB Andre Ellington, who didn't just catch swing passes in the Darren Sproles role but also played Wildcat QB and provided a spark in general.  Rashard Mendenhall responded to the competition by fumbling at his own 5-yard line in the 4th, setting up that bullshit Andre Johnson TD.  Nice job, dillhole.
• The Denver-San Diego game followed a linear line:  Both teams got much better pressure on the QBs than I expected, but Peyton Manning adjusted better and got rid of the damn ball quicker, and that's why the Broncos scored more than the Chargers.  They happened to score eight more and not seven, so that worked for my only winning pick of the week over Jas, but they weren't necessarily that much better.  The Chargers seemed to be in some kind of soft zone for all of those 2nd-quarter TD throws by Peyton, and once they cut that out in the 2nd half, Peyton was much less successful.  Huge sequence to end the 1st half:  Denver's up 14-6 and Philip Rivers and SD piece together a five-minute drive into the red zone only to watch Nick Novak flub a 37-yard FG, leaving Peyton Manning 1:38 to drive back and throw another TD to make it 21-6.  That's how you take advantage of an opponent's fuck-up.  Kansas City was taking notes, I'm sure.  They also noticed how sensitive Peyton's ankles seemed to be, as he hobbled around all day after every hit.  Think the refs will be on alert to watch Tamba Hali diving low this coming Sunday night?
• Boy, it was hard to watch Dallas get snowed under by New Orleans as someone who picked Dallas to stay close.  It started with the Cowboys not taking advantage of the muffed punt by Darren Sproles, only tacking on 3 points.  It continued with the baffling lack of offensive balance, following the shunning of running last week with the shunning of throwing to the best player this week.  Dez Bryant had one catch on two targets.  Unacceptable.  I don't care what defense Rob Ryan shaded towards Bryant, you have to take a chance and let him make a play, especially losing.  What the hell do you have to lose?  And the theme throughout, of course, was the Dallas defenders dropping.  Not just Sean Lee but fellow LB Justin Durant had to depart, not to mention DeMarcus Ware limping all around the field.  And as soon as Lee checked out, Drew Brees started using the middle of the field for throws, and you're screwed when Brees gets more area where he can operate.  Two other issues that doomed Dallas:  You can't give Brees that kind of time, and you can't miss tackles.  Between Brees and the running attack, there was no opportunity for the Cowboys to create momentum.  Just one of those nights.  Dallas will have more nights like that if the defense doesn't get healthy over the bye.
• So much fun to watch Miami get shit down their throat on Monday night, even if it meant the college coach Greg Schiano got his first win.  You could plainly see why Tampa Bay U. is so bad throughout that game, but they got the W.  The Bucs had school spirit from the start, helped by the Dolphins trying to pass block terribly on purpose as a new way to show love to Richie Incognito, or so it seemed.  Miami looked totally disinterested in all phases for the entire 1st half.  Distracted?  I think, but who really knows.  Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill started throwing quicker in the 2nd half, focusing on slot receiver Rishard Matthews, and lo and behold, Miami took a lead thanks to great field position and many Bucs penalties.  Then someone named Bobby Rainey had to come in at RB for Tampa, and his speed burst gave the Bucs the lead back, allowing the pass rush to charge one more time and bury Tannehill for good, fittingly.  Just a perfect O-line collapse by Miami to end the festivities.  It will be the season highlight for TBU, and that whole Miami organization deserves all the nausea this loss creates.

Week 10 Records--Dre 5-8-1, .385; Jay 7-6-1, .538
YTD Records--Dre 68-76-3, .472; Jay 75-69-3, .521

Week 10 ATS Recap: And the Meek Shall Inherit the Earth

Week 9 was the week of the Almost Upset. So many poor quality teams went up big against heavily favored teams but, in the end, found a way to falter. Not so this week. The winless Bucs and Jags both got their first win, Carolina put the league on notice, and the Rams and Ravens showed they might not be just dead yet. What a week.

Picks We Both Won (4)

• Vikings (+1) 34, Redskins 27 - It's always nice to start off the week with a win. This one didn't look so certain, with Minnesotas offense sputtering along in the first half and RG3 putting up huge numbers against the Vikings secondary. Whatever the Skins had done in the first half to be so successful, they went completely away from it in the second, allowing the Vikes to rally behind Adrian Peterson and a suddenly game Minnesota defense.
• Lions (+1) 21, Bears 19 - Memo to Jay Cutler: you are not a pussy, OK? Next time, heal completely instead of rushing back from an injury. Cutler was clearly injured still, and while he can be commended for gutting this one out until he left with an ankle sprain, he didn't have the A-game the Bears needed to hold off the Lions. Calvin Johnson was too much for Peanut Tillman, and Detroit now has a stranglehold on the NFC North with two wins over the Bears and the Packers in free fall minus Aaron Rodgers.
• Eagles (-1) 27, Packers 13 - Packers GM Ted Thompson was ready to shoulder the blame for the uninspired backup QB choices on the Green Bay roster, and it's easy to blame him. Since the departure of Matt Flynn, the Packers have been lucky that Aaron Rodgers has remained relatively healthy. Rodgers does have a history of missing some time, and it looks to be biting the Packers in the ass right now. They've lost two winnable games in a row, and have now turned back to Flynn, signing him to compete with Scott Tolzien for the starting QB job. Quietly, the Eagles have ascended to a tie atop the NFC Least, and now every team in that division is within 2 games of the division lead. Eeeek!!
• Bucs (+1) 22, Dolphins 19 - The Bucs jumped on the controversy riddled Fins to the tune of a 15-0 start, complete with a safety. All looked lost for Miami, but since they were playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they mounted a comeback and even took a 19-15 lead into the final quarter. Tampa was able to compose themselves enough to score a late TD and hold on the rest of the way, making things even messier in Miami.

Picks We Both Lost (5)

• Ravens (+1) 20, Bengals 17 (OT) - After the "are you kidding me?" moment of the season, you know the one, a Hail Mary bomb that was batted into the air and floated gently into the hands of A.J. Green, you just KNEW the Bengals had this one. Alas, it was not to be. Cincy quickly went 3-and-out on the opening possession of OT and the Ravens marched down for a game winning FG. Really, the Bengals had no business being in the game at all, as the Ravens D finally stood up and made some plays, making Andy Dalton uncomfortable all game long and collecting three picks. That's two bad losses in a row now for a Bengal team that was supposed to be asserting its dominance. Still waiting, guys.
• Rams (+9½) 38, Colts 8 - In the WTF game of the week, the Colts decided to let Tavon Austin make them his personal bitch.
• Jaguars (+13) 29, Titans 27 - Dre and I spent some time looking through the Jaguars schedule looking for their one win. We overlooked this one, obviously.
• Steelers (-3) 23, Bills 10 - Looks like we rode that Buffalo bandwagon off the cliff together this time. Thelma and Louise style.
• Panthers (+5½) 10, Niners 9 - Clearly we underestimated the Panthers. They've ascended into Chiefs territory now. Let me explain: great defense, fairly pathetic offense, probably good enough for a one-and-done come playoff time. But that's not an insult, there's plenty of teams that would like to be in that position right now.

Smellin' Pushy (1)

• Cardinals 27, Texans 24 - Give the Toxins credit, they keep trying. There's just something not right with that team, and I have a sense this will all end in a coaching change in Houston. That team is too talented for the results on the field.

Picks Dre Won Head to Head (1)

• Broncos (-7) 28, Chargers 20 - San Diego played tough and got after Peyton Manning, but having to settle for 2 early field goals after dominating the first quarter in time of possession proved to be the difference in this game.

Picks I Won Head to Head (3)

• Seahawks (-4) 33, Falcons 10 - This was the perfect team for Seattle to get well against after the near disaster against Tampa. Atlanta has zero pass rush, zero rushing game, and as it seems as the season progresses, zero heart.
• Giants 24, Raiders (+7) 20 - The Giants have won three in row to pull to 3-6 and are only two games out in the NFC East. Good for them. This was simply a case of not trusting the G-Men to cover a big number against ANYONE, and it paid off.
• Saints (-6½) 49, the Sean Lee-less Cowboys 17 - I joked on the podcast about the NBC Sunday Night crew being in the bag for the NFC East teams, and was it ever on display here in this one. No, there was no oral service on Tony Romo, but Chris Collinsworth sure had a mouthful of Sean Lee all night. To hear Collinsworth tell it, the Saints were only able to put up their 600 yard, 40 first down performance due to the pulled hamstring of Lee. Forget for a moment that Drew Brees was shredding the Boys WITH Lee in the game. Yes, Lee being out made a difference. No, Dallas would not have won or covered the number with him. No joke, nearly every time the Saints had a big play, in rushed Collinsworth, and later Micheals, to state that Lee's absence was allowing this all to happen. This had to infuriate Colts fans, who suddenly realized that they may have won that second Super Bowl had they just had Sean Lee on their team.

Jay 7-6-1
Dre 5-8-1

2013 Week #10

We differ on five games this week as the NFL season rolls along.  Here's Week 10:

Fav	Spread	Dog	Final		Dre	Jay
	Thu. Nite
Wash (3-5)	1	MIN (1-7)	Min 34-27		Min	Min
	Sunday
Cin (6-3)	1	BAL (3-5)			Cin	Cin
CHI (5-3)	Pk	Det (5-3)			Det	Det
Phi (4-5)	1	GB (5-3)			Phi	Phi
IND (6-2)	9½	StL (3-6)			Ind	Ind
Sea (8-1)	4	ATL (2-6)			Atl	Sea
NYG (2-6)	7	Oak (3-5)			NY	Oak
TENN(4-4)	13	Jack (0-8)			Tenn	Tenn
PIT (2-6)	3	Buf (3-6)			Buf	Buf
SF (6-2)	5½	Car (5-3)			SF	SF
ARIZ (4-4)	3	Hou (2-6)			Ariz	Hou
Den (7-1)	7	SD (4-4)			Den	SD
	Sun. Nite
NO (6-2)	6½	Dal (5-4)			Dal	NO
	Mon. Nite
Mia (4-4)	1	TB (0-8)			TB	TB

All of our thoughts and observations can be found on the show page:  blogtalkradio.com/inmuchlessdetail

2013 Week 9: What I Learned

• In a weekend filled with news and developments, Jason and I started Thursday night losing a game we think we should have won.  The Bengals for all their flaws appeared to be a higher class outfit than the Dolphins, and with Richie Incognito in the fold, we now know that's as low class as it gets.  Why did Miami beat Cincinnati then?  Cincy didn't have more points than Miami in regulation because Andy Dalton all by himself kept the Fish in the game with terribly inaccurate interception throws.  I thought Dalton was past that stage of his development, but he had a very bad night.  Miami used a very cautious game plan to try to keep QB Ryan Tannehill from getting bounced around, and while it looked strange to see an NFL team run almost exclusively despite not being a very good run team, they kept Tanny clean mostly.  Cincy actually looked like they would pull out the win late on Gio Bernard's "WTF?!?" run of the year, but give the Dolphins credit for hanging in there.  Cameron Wake made the difference in the beginning with an early Dalton sack which caused the Bengals to go shotgun for almost every pass thereafter and in the end by burying Dalton for a GW safety even with the shotgun snap.  Hard to overcome animals on pass rush.  Hopefully Cincy learns from the loss and comes back stronger, because they had no business dropping this game.
• I don't want to say Atlanta has now looked like they quit necessarily, but man, if they haven't quit, then their effort on tape looks like shit.  Matt Ryan without his top two speed weapons now produces INTs into triple coverage and Pick-6s on throws he would never make if he were concentrating.  Embarrassing.  A sure sign of quit is missed tackles, and Atlanta had massive trouble wrapping up Carolina runners and receivers on the day.  They blitzed more as the desperation grew, and Cam Newton made them pay with on-target throws and of course the 8-yard TD run, which is his calling card.  I think I now believe in the Panthers against pass defenses in the bottom half of the league, because the run is the base of that offense and sets up play action and read options, and even if you take away the run from Carolina, if you're not disciplined in your defensive backfield, Cam can shred you anyway.  Atlanta is asleep and tucked away for this season as far as playoffs.  They may be a value bet ATS when they play defenses that can't rush the passer.
• Two normally reliable factors had not been clicking lately in the Minnesota-Dallas matchup, and so Jas and I ignored those factors, and they bit us in the tookus.  Dallas had not been coughing up games by having massive brain farts; even in losing last week at Detroit in the last seconds, the Cowboys played their end game correctly but just got overwhelmed by a career day by Calvin Johnson.  And Minnesota had not been getting the all-world effort from their HOF RB Adrian Peterson.  Both those factors came into play Sunday.  Dez Bryant not only got a pass interference penalty with Dallas in FG range, but then removed his helmet to argue, drawing an extra penalty and forcing a punt.  What a surefire way to snuff your team's momentum.  And Peterson decided to show up, looking as beastly as ever on his 4th-quarter TD run.  It was actually Christian Ponder looking decent at QB that kept the Vikings in the game.  His comfort in the pocket was easy like Sunday morning compared to Tony Romo.  And when the Cowboys did make it to Ponder, he showed good feet and avoided the big hits.  Dallas is a mess on defense.  Their front 7 don't make waves in pass rush without DeMarcus Ware, their secondary is young and undisciplined, and they had several Pick-6 chances on weak sideline throws but couldn't make it happen.  Minny's front 7 had an A+ day, but they lost because their DBs weren't good enough on the final drive.
• And I ignored New Orleans having a subpar defense and a track record of mediocrity on the road, and the Jets made me pay dearly.  The Saints have to feel great about having Jimmy Graham out there knowing no one can stop him even if he's gimpy, but if they're going to turn around and refuse to stop Chris Ivory, it comes out even after all that.  Injuries played a huge factor in a few games, but losing Darren Sproles early doesn't make waves in the league.  But maybe it should.  Do the Saints make play calls like running a reverse on 4th down with their backup TE if Sproles is an option?  I would guess hell no.  Geno Smith wasn't a stud at all in this game, but when you call plays like that and give up 1st half points, you let Rex Ryan and the defense turn up the pressure in the 2nd half, and Brees was smothered.  I'm sure if NO had the lead in the 2nd half, Rob Ryan would have buried Geno with blitz pressure.
• A bad turnover by the Rams started their day against Tennessee, and a bad turnover ended it.  In between, the Titans had all they could handle from Zac Stacy and the St. Louis run blocking, which dominated the line of scrimmage all day.  If they could control the football instead of turning it over, they could have won this game easily.  Instead, they ceded field position to the Titans and let Chris Johnson have his biggest running day of the season.  Tennessee gaining a 4th-quarter lead should have meant that they crush Kellen Clemens with pass blitz and lock the game away, but Stacy carried the Rams back.  Jake Locker responded with his good and bad traits--he's a playmaker, but he's not the best decision maker.  It was the Titan blitz that worked to get the strip sack from Clemens and give Johnson the ball for the final TD.  Gregg Williams' D can do that coming off the bye, but later in the year, if you're a Titans fan waiting for that to save your bacon, you might be waiting a long time.
• You're up 10-3 in the 3rd quarter, you're 3rd-and-goal at the 1, you're playing an overrated defense that allows 4.7 yards per rush, you're starting a rookie QB who has shown an alarming lack of accuracy in his short career, and you call...a throw which goes directly to the other team for a 100-yard Pick 6???  I guess that's why Jason wanted to take Kansas City if Jeff Tuel was going to be the Buffalo starting QB.  Smartest play of the day.  Jason, not the play call.  No, the play caller, Bills OC Nathaniel Hackett, and Tuel melded their wit and acumen to be THE DRIZZLING SHITS.  I'm sure their parents are so proud.  Kansas City scored nine points on offense and still deserved the win more than Buffalo.  The Chiefs get a bye and then go to Denver on Sunday night.  I don't care what the number is, Denver in Week 11 is the Lock of the Week.
• Washington's defensive backfield looked dazed and confused, but Robert Griffin III and the Redskins running game worked their way back and earned a late W.  Nothing surprising here.  San Diego is a flawed team with a resurgent QB but a lack of trust in its running game or its defense.  Washington is a flawed team with an athletic QB still figuring out his own boundaries and a undisciplined secondary unconcerned with assignments as much as INTs.  San Diego had the win late in regulation but didn't trust in its RBs.  The Chargers had 1st-and-goal at the 1 with 30 seconds left and ran once with Danny Woodhead, who's no one's definition of a goal-line back, then threw two incompletions before taking the FG and forcing OT.  Sad.  The patented Matt Stafford snap-and-reach probably would have worked, much less give it to a damn real running back and let him do his job.
• I don't think Michael Vick expected when he got off the plane with his Eagles teammates in Oakland that one of them would be throwing a surprise Michael Vick Forced Retirement Party.  But that's just what Nick Foles did in firing seven TD passes to lead Philadelphia to a rout over the Raiders.  Nick Foles no doubt was THE SHIT.  I still don't know why Chip Kelly's stuff doesn't work like this when Philly is at home, but damn if it's not that fyah as a visitor.  And on the heels of Incognito's racist voicemails, it was great to see The Aryan Connection in full effect for the Eagles, as Foles once again singlehandedly made a fantasy superstar out of Riley Cooper, who's shoulder-to-shoulder with Incognito ready to fight every n---er in here, I'm sure.  Hell, Foles tossed five of his seven TDs to white guys, which in 2013 is a sentence that I cannot believe I just typed.  White Power rules in Philly, which means Vick can forget about playing for the Iggles ever again.  (Send your hate mail to @imlddre.)
• Mike Glennon was the second lightweight QB to move his feet and make some plays and almost lead a shocking road upset, the first being Ponder.  At least I fell on the right side of this one, taking Tampa Bay U. to cover a large number in Seattle.  In addition to the Seahawks having major issues moving the ball in the air, which is why I took Tampa initially, Seattle also appeared to back off pressuring Glennon after they sent LB Bobby Wagner in on a blitz where he almost killed Glennon by hitting him so hard.  They didn't pressure Glennon the rest of the day after that until late when they were rallying.  Perhaps Seattle would have slept all the way through and lost the game, but the Bucs had RB Mike James throw a jump pass for the 3rd TD that made it 21-0 TBU, and that served as cold water in the Hawks' faces.  Tampa may also have pulled the upset if they could get their pass D out of that stupid Tampa-2 that everyone has already seen doesn't work for their personnel.  They weren't in zone the whole game, but they were in it enough to hurt them.
• I'm not going all the way back to Brown Fever with Jason Campbell, where I declared you had to pick Cleveland every time Brian Hoyer started at QB, but that team definitely plays better behind a QB not named Brandon Weeden.  I'm about done with Baltimore until Ray Rice starts running again.  Joe Flacco's not good enough to carry a team all by himself.
• Ben Roethlisberger's used to carrying teams with little support from the run game, but not even he could overcome Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, who looked like a USFL team on Sunday with all the points and yardage.  Call them the Foxborough Express or something.  But I want to warn you, dear reader:  You may have heard lots of opinions about how Brady's back, how NE is an AFC power team again, how all is right with the world, but I'm telling you, Brady looked great because he had no one in his face.  Pittsburgh cannot pass rush.  Can't do it.  I thought I was being bold calling for a 300-yard day for Brady.  He went for 432 and four TDs!  Come on.  I'm carefully watching the sack numbers for Patriots opponents in the future, and if they can pressure the QB, I'm being very careful.  Rob Gronkowski opened up the offense early, and when Brady wanted another receiver, he found him wide open because Troy Polamalu was out of position leaning towards Gronk.  You knew Bill Belichick was confident because he went on 4th-and-goal in the 1st quarter and got stuffed.  Belichick knew the Pats were better, and if they didn't make it they could get it back later, and the next play was Big Ben getting blitzed and throwing a terrible pick, followed by Brady to Danny Amendola wide open for a score.  Roethlisberger hung in there long enough to lead a comeback to tie it up, and that just angered Brady, who led the rout from that point along with the NE blitz.  But I'm still not a full New England believer.
• After the fact, I heard reports that the Houston offense was directionless in the 2nd half against Indianapolis due to their coach Gary Kubiak's collapse at halftime.  That's fine reporting.  It's also bullshit.  Tom Brady doesn't lose that game.  Ben Roethlisberger doesn't lose that game.  Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, or Aaron Rodgers don't lose that game.  This is on the kid Case Keenum, who had the heart and courage to light up the Colts with long bombs and good intermediate passes in the 1st half and didn't have that courage in the 2nd half because he doesn't know how to win NFL games, not because his damn coach collapsed.  I felt so bad for RB Ben Tate, who clearly was in pain trying to run with four broken ribs but soldiered on anyway because Arian Foster wasn't able to go after a couple of plays.  I felt bad for Andre Johnson, rediscovered as a weapon with the benching of Matt Schaub and then forgotten again.  And I felt bad for the Texans defense, saddled with stopping the preeminent comeback QB in the game, Andrew Luck, and having no support from the offense the entire 2nd half.  And I also felt good for Luck, because I think he's "elite" and I watched as a fan as he grinded out a big W, even though I Tweeted that Houston was going to win the AFC South at halftime and Luck was making me look retarded.  One more observation:  Wow, both these teams looked fast and excited and hyped up!  Amazing what a Sunday night showcase game can look like when both teams are coming off a bye.
• The Monday night battle became interesting for a different reason--the star QB getting retired for the evening very early on, giving me a lucky win.  Considering Green Bay found 20 points behind Seneca Wallace after Aaron Rodgers got KTFO by Shea McClellin, I concede that they probably would have found 40 behind Rodgers and spanked Chicago and covered the number.  The whole complexion of the game changed from that injury, unsurprisingly.  The Packers D spent so much time on the field, it's no wonder they couldn't contain the great Josh McCown and the Bears offense.  It was the Marc Trestman Systems of Football (#trustintrest) prevailing in this one, as I predicted, but that Chicago D is worse than I thought.  They couldn't tackle, they couldn't stop the run, and the only time they looked competent was when Wallace was forced to throw.  Green Bay's offense is more run-based than normal these days, so they actually didn't look that off-balance with Seneca at QB.  It's just that he had to throw and lead a comeback win, and that wasn't happening.  That last drive for the Bears to wrap it up was excellent all around--great pass protection for McCown, great run blocking for Matt Forte, and great bleeding of the clock to leave the Pack with no time.  Funny, I kept picking against GB when they started going through all of their injuries on offense and defense, and I get bailed out on this crazy pick because of the one injury they couldn't overcome.

Week 9 Records--Dre 7-6, .538; Jay 6-7, .462
YTD Records--Dre 63-68-2, .481; Jay 68-63-2, .519

2013 Week #9

We get a little fancy with this week's picks, as we have an Elvis game (meaning one of us is caught in a trap) and Jason has a contingency pick (as observed by the question mark).  On to the picks!

Fav	Spread	Dog	Final		Dre	Jay
	Thu. Nite
Cin (6-2)	3	MIA (3-4)	Mia 22-20, OT		Cin	Cin
	Sunday
CAR (4-3)	9½	Atl (2-5)			Atl	Atl
DAL (4-4)	10	Min (1-6)			Dal	Dal
NO (6-1)	6½	NYJ (4-4)			NO	NY
Tenn (3-4)	1	STL (3-5)			Tenn	Tenn
KC (8-0)	3½	BUF (3-5)			Buf	KC?
SD (4-3)	1	WASH (2-5)			Wash	Wash
OAK (3-4)	1	Phi (3-5)			Phi	Phi
SEA (7-1)	15½	TB (0-7)			TB	Sea
Bal (3-4)	1	CLE (3-5)			Cle	Bal
NE (6-2)	7	Pit (2-5)			NE	Pit
	Sun. Nite
Ind (5-2)	1	HOU (2-5)		Elvis	Hou	Ind
	Mon. Nite
GB (5-2)	10½	Chi (4-3)			Chi	GB

All of our thoughts and observations, as well as the explanations for those fancy picks, can be heard in ten minutes (10P Central) at blogtalkradio.com/inmuchlessdetail

2013 Week 8: What I Learned

• We may have laughed about it on the podcast, but I learned that it may be time to go back to the Sacks Allowed/Sacks Earned stat, because this week seemed to be all about shitty pass blocking, game after game after game.
• In Tampa last Thursday, the Bucs took a flawed defensive strategy on the field against Carolina and, shocker, got exploited over and over.  Tampa Bay U. hasn't actually quit yet on its college coach; a different Florida team has earned the first FedEx Mail-It-In Team™ award of the season, but we'll get to them next, ol' chap.  Tampa just doesn't know how to adjust and do things differently, a trait no doubt earned from their rigid coach Greg Schiano.  Cam Newton and the Panthers shredded the zone pass defense repeatedly and without much effort.  The Bucs offense of course couldn't rally behind rag-armed Mike Glennon, but they were also plagued by bad snaps, Glennon's inaccuracy, lack of a run attack, and just being bad.  All I can say is, at least they did appear to be still trying.
• And now, presenting the first 2013 FedEx Mail-It-In Team™, the Jacksonville Jaguars!!  Confetti showers all around.  Does anyone think they're trying out there?  If Schiano is the college coach at Tampa Bay U., Gus Bradley is presiding over Jacksonville Prep Academy of Hair Design.  It's the 1-7 ATS that stands out for the Jaguars, not just the 0-8 SU.  They've only covered that ridiculous four-TD line at Denver, and nothing else.  I really don't know where they're going to get a win down the road, or a cover, for that matter.  Oh, that's five wins in a row for San Francisco.
• Jason Campbell was much better than anticipated for the Brown Fever, and he led them to a cover over the still-not-impressive Kansas City Chiefs.  He couldn't get the win late partially because a bad KC punt broke good when the Browns muffed it, and partially because the Chiefs finally clamped down on defense.  But most of the game, Campbell found success with quick deliveries, avoiding the KC pass rush, and a couple of times, he was mobile enough to escape pressure.  Now, quick throws, a flea-flicker, and a little mobility shouldn't be enough to almost beat an 8-0 team, but again, Kansas City isn't that good.  The Browns seemed to adjust mid-game to Alex Smith's tricks of throwing screens against the blitz and short crossing patterns against deep coverage.  The Cleveland blitz started getting home, and the Browns had chances to pull off the upset.  We'll see if Campbell can be consistent and provide some basic QB play for the Browns the rest of the way.  He's better than Brandon Weeden, for damn sure.
• What happened in Massachusetts was sad to watch for me as a Miami believer.  The Dolphins outplayed the Patriots in the first half, came out fired up for the second half eager to put the Pats away, and melted under the New England no-huddle offense and vomit-inducing blocking.  It was like LT Bryant McKinnie had one good half left in him before he retired on the field without giving notice.  He was great helping Miami execute a short passing game early, and it was clear the Dolphins' Job One was to protect Ryan Tannehill.  They even ran the ball on 4th-and-1 right where Vince Wilfork would have been standing, and they rattled Tom Brady, and everything was going their way...and then New England brought the blitz in the 2nd half and Tannehill had no chance.  He even seemed to lose trust by the end, cringing and bracing himself before the D arrived.  That's dangerous.  If your starting QB doesn't think he's got time to do anything, even when he has time, there goes your entire game plan.  Give the Pats credit for awesome run blocking out of the no-huddle, but Miami had an opportunity to make a real statement and shit the bed.
• New Orleans still can't stop the run, but they can hit the hell out of a QB and make him skittish in the pocket.  More bad pass blocking helped the Saints beat the Bills and cover the big number, and yes, I crushed another bandwagon.  Thad Lewis wasn't the same QB by the end of his game either.  Perhaps he can share a beer with Tannehill and commiserate.  If the Bills could have stayed on Fred Jackson's back and kept running all game long instead of playing catch-up, they may have had a chance.  But holding Drew Brees and the Saints offense back is a very tough task, especially when Jimmy Graham plays only in the red zone and can't be stopped even when everyone knows the ball is coming his way, and especially when a pass coverage results in a linebacker trying to cover Kenny Stills.  Why the fuck a linebacker was trying to cover Kenny Stills for even one play, I don't know, but that's how he caught his first of two TDs on the day.  I still think New Orleans' best defensive player is Drew Brees.
• How?  How did Dallas let Detroit drive down the field in four plays and win the game with no timeouts and Calvin Johnson open for more catches after an already hellacious day??  Because that's the Dallas Cowboys in a nutshell, I suppose.  Teams who were -4 in turnover ratio were 1-54 all time SU before the Cowboys coughed this one up.  I'm not even mad at losing the pick ATS because I said this game was going to be close and I didn't feel strongly about the pick.  Like a lot of these football simulator websites, I have my games where I'm very confident, and those where it's so close that I don't feel the least bit confident about my pick, but hey, we pick 'em all.  Lots of stuff in this game besides the obvious Megatron display and Dez Bryant tantrum.  Detroit's dirty defense was awake early, and it looked like Tony Romo was going to get KO'd if Dallas didn't protect him better, but they made the adjustment and called more runs to counter the Lions overaggressiveness.  Bryant only had three catches to prove how much of a beast he is, and he did it.  But Johnson was unbelievable.  The quick slants were open for him for some reason, and when Dallas tried to adjust and stop that, Matthew Stafford just started lofting it up for him to go grab it and make video game plays.  The Lions were losing because Stafford's second-most open receiver was Cowboys LB Sean Lee, and because Reggie Bush and Megatron had really bad fumbles in the 2nd half.  As for Bryant, I'm not going to pick one side or the other.  It's true that he's an immature diva for ranting like a madman on the sideline while his team was winning, presumably being selfish and upset for getting way less targets than Megatron was getting.  It's also true that he probably wanted to make more plays to help his team because he knew he was the best option, and as a competitor he should be pissed that he wasn't getting those chances.  Both are truths.  There's no definite side to take.
• Still don't know what's wrong with Eli Manning and why he can't make it click with his receivers this year, but he didn't need to in Philadelphia because the Eagles find ways to shoot themselves in the foot at home.  This time, they actually did it the way Jason and I accurately predicted:  They went to Michael Vick at QB even though he probably wasn't physically ready because Nick Foles was concussed and Matt Barkley isn't trustworthy, and Vick got hurt again, and Barkley came again and wasn't good enough.  That was all she wrote.
• Can a team look more old and slow than the Pittsburgh Steelers did on the first play from scrimmage at Oakland?  Terrelle Pryor ran a simple read option and took it 93 yards up the middle untouched, and the Raiders were off and running.  From there, Pittsburgh forced Pryor into mistakes when he had to throw, but the Steelers couldn't stop the run or run a balanced offense because they were down 14-0 and 21-3, allowing the blitz to tee off on Ben Roethlisberger and smother the comeback attempt.  The atrocious punting and kicking (2 short missed FGs by Shaun Suisham) will get the press, but the Steelers lost because they couldn't protect Big Ben or slow the rush.  If the Steelers' front seven have lost their ability to move laterally and stop the run, they can pack it in now.
• Bengals 49, Jets 9??  Even Ron Burgundy thinks that escalated quickly.  Geno Smith saw what a QB with poise and weapons looks like, and realized that it wasn't him, so he threw two Pick-6s to take the blowout to the ridiculous stage.  I said that Andy Dalton has been steadily showing signs of improvement this season, and this was the culmination.  The Jets took away his favorite toy, A.J. Green, and Dalton shrugged and made a star out of rookie Marvin Jones, throwing him eight completions, four in the end zone.  Can we now say that the Bengals can win even if you take away A.J. Green?  If so, it's exactly the kind of growth I was hoping for when I picked Cincinnati to go to the Super Bowl.  And media coverage tried to put the blame for the pass coverage breakdown on Jets rookie CB Dee Milliner.  That looked like the whole secondary having problems to me, not just one kid.
• I wanted to give Atlanta the next FedEx Mail-It-In Team™ award, but I don't think they mailed it in versus the Cardinals.  I think the Falcons were another of those teams with horrible pass protection this week, I think the Atlanta DBs were as lost as any group I've seen all year between pass coverage and run contain, and I think Matty Ice, naturally, wasn't on the same page with his new receivers at the most inopportune times.  His INTs were nowhere near the intended receivers, and I suspect most or all of the receivers weren't where they were supposed to be.  And this was after Interception Santa gave Atlanta their first three points on a total gift pick, so Atlanta had momentum and opportunity.  Now, keep an eye on them in these next games as their reality sinks in.  They might be ready to mail it in behind their clearly unhappy star TE Tony Gonzalez.  If his effort wanes, the rest of them could follow suit.
• Washington, like Miami, had a better team down and in the crosshairs in the 2nd half and couldn't figure out how to put them away, and we really should take the mental note and learn something about both teams.  Whatever we may have thought about the Dolphins or Redskins, they showed what they're really made of on Sunday.  Pierre Garçon made a great one-handed catch in the 1st half for the Skins, and the next play, the center snapped the ball early and Robert Griffin III wasn't looking for it at all.  RG3 was not in rhythm, he was throwing his deep ball but into double coverage, he got TE Jordan Reed hurt on a throw where he was covered but two other WRs were wide open...and Washington led in the 4th quarter after all that.  Shannyball was in effect, as Washington ran and ran and ran, taking occasional deep pass shots and then going back to the run.  So what happened?  As soon as Peyton Manning got Denver in a rhythm and on the comeback trail in the 4th quarter, Shannyball stopped, RG3 started getting pounded by the Bronco blitz right up the middle, and the snowball rolled down the mountain.  Before you knew it, Griffin was knocked out of the game and Kirk Cousins shouldered the responsibility to lead the comeback against a fired-up Denver D, and that went predictably bad.  Combine an overwhelmed defense with an overwhelmed offensive line, and this is what happened to the Skins in Colorado.  Can't blame just Griffin for this one.
• Speaking of overwhelmed, isn't it obvious by now that Christian Ponder sucks and shouldn't be starting?  Okay, Josh Freeman had a "concussion," but why would Leslie Frazier not go back to Matt Cassel, who's not very good but is better right now than Freeman or Ponder?  I picked Minnesota to cover at home against Green Bay because I hoped that Ponder would feed Adrian Peterson all day like he did last year as Peterson earned league MVP honors.  And AP did work when he could.  But the problem was, when it came time for Ponder to throw, he looked scared shitless to let the ball go.  This is as dangerous as Miami with a QB who looks afraid of contact.  This loss wasn't all on Ponder, of course.  The Vikings D got outclassed by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers all night long.  At one point there was another LB, Chad Greenway, caught covering a WR, Jordy Nelson, and of course that resulted in a Packer TD.  And the run attack wore down Minnesota over time, which it's designed to do.  I'm still amazed at Green Bay's seamless adjustment to being a run-first outfit.  Stick with them until someone stops them, I guess.
• The trend that I cited on the podcast and ignored came up to bite me on the tookus.  Teams favored on Monday night by ten or more points were 5-8 ATS coming into the Seahawks-Rams tilt, but I stuck with Seattle anyway because the Rams were sending Kellen Clemens as their QB and I thought that would be a total disaster against the Seattle secondary.  It wasn't.  Clemens mixed in strong throws with totally off-target ones, and that was enough to lead three FG-scoring drives and cover the number.  Why didn't Seattle score more than 14?  Because of all the offensive offensive line performances this weekend, this was the worst.  Paul McQuistan's still impersonating an offensive lineman, and Robert Quinn couldn't have been happier, as he, Chris Long and the St. Louis defense spent all evening deeper in the Seattle backfield than Lexington Steele in Alexis Texas.  I also have words for Seahawks offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell:  Dude, you tried to get too cute all game long, and you almost got your QB killed.  First-and-goal at the 1 and you called no runs for Marshawn Lynch??  Bullshit!  Total bullshit, and I don't even own Lynch in a fantasy team.  But it was stuff like that that resulted in no rhythm for Russell Wilson and his receivers, along with the lack of protection.  Wilson was also holding the ball a little too long.  The last drive summed up the Rams nicely:  Great running effort from Zac Stacy and Daryl Richardson, good throws from Clemens, a drive that started at their own 3 gets them at about the Seattle 1 needing a TD to win, and...no rushing attempts?  Kellen Clemens' arm against the Seahawks DBs FTW??  Nice try, Rams.  The Redbirds weren't the only losers in town.

Week 8 Records--Dre 5-8, .385; Jay 8-5, .615
YTD Records--Dre 56-62-2, .475; Jay 62-56-2, .525