It's been a restless two weeks for me. Not only does my pristine season come down to one pick that I have to get right in order to hold off Jason for the handicapping title, but the matchup of Rams-Pats is the one with the least juice. This has been maybe the least exciting Super Bowl march of them all. So with no oomph and on very little sleep, I make my final pick of the season and I once again choose to believe in the dynasty that is the New England Patriots, because I'll be damned if I go down picking a 14-year-old coach over maybe the greatest coach in history.
Fav
Spread
Dog
Final
Dre
Jay
NE (13-5)
2½
LAR (15-3)
NE
LA
120
109.4
Last Week
+0
+8
=120
=117.4
All of our thoughts and observations, including my final awards for IMLD Honors & Dishonors that I couldn't give out on the last show because my connection crapped out, can be heard here:
The -50 wind chills are cooling things off around these parts, so I figured that posting this years Honors and Dishonors was a good way to waste a morning.
So here they are, in all their glory (?!?!?!)
MVP - Patrick Mahomes, QB Chiefs. On the podcast, we highlighted the transformative season Mahomes had, joining Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in the 50 TD club, and not a single mention that Mahomes is black. Change may be slow, but it is happening. Gander at these stats and marvel : Andre gave him "The Shit" award too
LVP - Kirk Cousins, QB Vikings. No sense looking at the stats, because they're very GOOD! But Cousins inability to win big games, with a winless record against winning opponents, sent the 13-3 Vikings from title contenders to home for the playoffs. That's how you blow $84 million!
Quote of the Year - John Gruden, Coach Raiders. "It's hard to find a great one, it's hard to find a good one." This was said in reference to finding great pass rushers. Holy shit dumbass, you traded away one of the best in the league a few weeks before, and THEN lamented how hard it is to find one. What comes first? Gruden actually finds a great pass rusher, or he's back in the TV booth?
Best Play - This is all you need :
Worst Play - This nonsense :
Best Rookie - Saquon Barkley, RB Giants - Nooooope, not Baker. Barkleys 2000 all purpose yards were very Marshall Faulk-like, and made Eli Manning almost look like an NFL QB. Thats Hurculean!
Worst Rookie - Josh Rosen, QB Cardinals - When you have a higher rush per attempt versus pass (6.0 versus 5.8), things aren't going to go well. The Cards offense was DFL in every major category. All is not bad news? Previous winners of this award, Jared Goff and Melvin Gordon, those guys turned out OK.
Rookie Steal of the Draft - Tre Flowers, DB Seahawks, 5th Round, Pick 146. Left for dead, the Legion of Boom had turned in to the Legion of Room. In a stunning turnaround, not only did Seattle markedly improve their defense, they thrived! Not to the level of their Super Bowl days, but to the level that things are looking good in the Northwest.
Story of the Year - The Season-Long Nuclear Meltdown of the Pittsburgh Steelers. It's clear that Mike Tomlin had lost control of this squad and season, with holdouts, underachievement, and diva-WR drama all coming to a head with a seat on the couch for the playoffs. It was a slow motion train wreck, and eminently watchable.
The Jimmy Garoppolo Team (Previously the Houston Texans Preseason Chic Pick to Make the Playoffs Award, or The White Mouse Award) - Whatever it's called, its the Cleveland Browns. All the talking heads will want to sound smart annointing the Browns as playoff contenders for 2019.
It Happened this Season But It Feels Like So Long Ago - The Jaguars were 3-1 and looking like title contenders, and making me and Dre look really smart. Fuck the Jags.
Game of the Year - Packers 24, Bears 23, Week 1. Nope, not the 54-51 offensive bukkake display between the Rams and Chiefs. I'm picking a game that featured literally everthing: amazing defense, an inqured HOF QB gutting it out Willis Reed-style, a late second half comeback, a thrilling catch and run to win it. Literally all the scoring and drama you need in a game that featured less points total than either the Rams or Chiefs scored on that Monday Night.
Worst Game of the Year - Titans 20, Texans 17, Week 2. Blaine Gabbert beat DeShaun Watson. A safety threw a 66 yard touchdown pass. Derek Henry completed a pass. Sound interesting? It wasn't.
And the Grammy For Outstanding Acting Goes To..... Tom Brady. You are not underdogs. You are not disrespected. You are a terrible actor. Just stop.
The mystery is gone from the picks left this season as Jay now has to pick the opposite of me for the conference finals and Super Bowl if he wants to beat me in our handicapping challenge. So all the pressure is on me to not go 0-3. He could have picked the same as me on one of the conference games because he sees the game the same as me, but he couldn't just give up the picks title to me. Especially since I'm underwater in these playoffs, so there's a chance I could be dead wrong these next three games. In any event, Jason spelled out his real feelings on the games on our podcast, but for prosperity, here are our official picks for the two battles that determine the Super Bowl teams:
Fav
Spread
Dog
Final
Dre
Jay
NO (14-3)
3
LAR (14-3)
NO
LA
KC (13-4)
3
NE (12-5)
KC
NE
Last Week
114
106.4
+6
+3
=120
=109.4
All of our thoughts and observations can be heard here:
So after watching the three games Jason and I disagreed on last week all go his way, anything he says now has to make me nervous. And Jay has only one disagreement with me this week, and it's Colts-Chiefs. I break out into hives thinking about that particular playoff matchup because it was a mere five years ago when my Chiefs were up in Indy 38-10...and lost. Now, this isn't Alex Smith at QB for Kansas City so at least there's that, but this is another kid QB making his first playoff start, and those kids making their first playoff starts were 0-3 last weekend. And they had better supporting defenses than the Chiefs. So I will be quite nervous for the first game of the Divisional Round weekend, hoping that the evil spirit of Alex Smith will be barred from entering the building. Here are all four of our picks for the Conference Semifinals:
Fav
Spread
Dog
Final
Dre
Jay
Saturday
KC (12-4)
5
Ind (11-6)
KC
Ind
Sat. Nite
LAR (13-3)
7½
Dal (11-6)
Dal
Dal
Sunday
NE (11-5)
4
LAC (13-4)
NE
NE
NO (13-3)
8
Phi (10-7)
NO
NO
Last Week
112
98.4
+2
+8
=114
=106.4
All of our thoughts and observations can be heard here:
Another playoff szn is upon us, starting with Texivus, which is the holiday celebrated by the Texans on Saturday at 3:30 in Houston on Wild Card Weekend. Really, it's their special time of year. I only wish I had come up with the term so I could market it. Jason and I are going the other way on the last three games of the weekend, but we're on the same page for Texivus. He has a long road to make up to catch me in pursuit of the picking title for this NFL season, but he's got it all mapped out: If he can take a game from me each round, he's got it. Go get 'em, kid. Here are our picks for Wild Ward '19, along with the playoff points system:
Fav
Spread
Dog
Final
Dre
Jay
Coin
Saturday
HOU (11-5)
1
Ind (10-6)
Ind
Ind
Sat. Nite
DAL (10-6)
2½
Sea (10-6)
Dal
Sea
Sunday
BAL (10-6)
3
LAC (12-4)
Bal
LA
CHI (12-4)
6½
Phi (9-7)
Chi
Phi
Week 17
8-7-1
9-6-1
6-9-1
0.533
0.600
0.400
Season
140-110-6
123-127-6
0.560
0.492
Lock Total
9
9
x200
x200
Playoff Points
112
98.4
Scoring System
Wild Card
2 pts. each
Conf. Semis
3 pts. each
Conf. Finals
4 pts. each
Super Bowl
5 pts.
All of our thoughts and observations, including thoughts on "Hall of Famers" Lee Smith and Harold Baines, can be heard here:
The final week of the NFL regular season traditionally gives some very unusual results, so as you know if you're a regular reader of this blog, Jason and I flip a coin for each and every pick to see if we can do better than a random coin flip. Most of the time, we don't. I added an extra element of randomness this year. Thanks to nflpickwatch.com, I can see which teams I pick well and which teams I'm the worst at picking, and I found a couple of matchups this week between teams that I'm under .500 picking both squads. So since I don't know what I'm picking with those teams anyway, and this is the extra-screwy Week 17, I just picked the opposite of what I actually like for those games. I have those picks italicized for full disclosure. And I'm winning the fan challenge by two games with one week to go, so if those two games are the ones I lose, I have no one to blame but myself. Here are our official Week 17 picks, where Jay and I go head-to-head on six games:
Fav
Spread
Dog
Final
Dre
Jay
Coin
GB (6-8-1)
7½
Det (5-10)
GB
GB
GB
NO (13-2)
7
Car (6-9)
Car
NO
NO
Atl (6-9)
2
TB (5-10)
Atl
TB
Atl
HOU (10-5)
7
Jack (5-10)
Hou
Hou
Jack
NE (10-5)
14
NYJ (4-11)
NY
NE
NE
BUF (5-10)
5½
Mia (7-8)
Buf
Buf
Mia
NYG (5-10)
6
Dal (9-6)
NY
NY
Dal
LAC (11-4)
6
DEN (6-9)
LA
LA
LA
SEA (9-6)
13½
Ariz (3-12)
Sea
Sea
Sea
MIN (8-6-1)
5½
Chi (11-4)
Min
Chi
Chi
LAR (12-3)
10½
SF (4-11)
SF
LA
LA
BAL (9-6)
6½
Cle (7-7-1)
Bal
Bal
Bal
PIT (8-6-1)
14½
Cin (6-9)
Cin
Cin
Pit
Phi (8-7)
7½
WASH (7-8)
Phi
Phi
Phi
KC (11-4)
14½
Oak (4-11)
KC
Oak
Oak
Sun. Nite
Ind (9-6)
3
TENN (9-6)
Ind
Ind
Tenn
Week 16
7-9
7-9
0.438
0.438
Season
132-103-5
114-121-5
0.562
0.485
Lock Total
9
9
All of our thoughts and observations can be heard here:
Well, we had our "football party" where we get into the previous week's action before picking the upcoming games, just like we do in the playoffs. That's a lot of talking without a break, so it was no surprise that Jason and I were all partied out at the end of those two hours. But we got our talking points in and raised each other's eyebrows with some of our observations. This will be a weekend without football for me, because my wife and I will be off on a Christmas cruise to Mexico. I'm very much looking forward to being off the grid and not finding out about the picks until I'm back in America next Thursday. Hopefully I will have avoided some dreadful 2-14 week or something. Here are our selections for Week 16, which has us battling on eight picks:
Fav
Spread
Dog
Final
Dre
Jay
Saturday
TENN (8-6)
10½
Wash (7-7)
Tenn
Tenn
Sat. Nite
LAC (11-3)
4½
Bal (8-6)
LA
LA
Sunday
CLE (6-7-1)
10
Cin (6-8)
Cle
Cin
DAL (8-6)
7½
TB (5-9)
Dal
Dal
Min (7-6-1)
6
DET (5-9)
Min
Det
IND (8-6)
10
NYG (5-9)
NY
Ind
MIA (7-7)
4
Jack (4-10)
Mia
Mia
NE (9-5)
13½
Buf (5-9)
Buf
NE
GB (5-8-1)
3
NYJ (4-10)
GB
GB
PHI (7-7)
1
Hou (10-4)
Hou
Phi
Atl (5-9)
3½
CAR (6-8)
Atl
Car
LAR (11-3)
14
ARIZ (3-11)
Ariz
LA
Chi (10-4)
4
SF (4-10)
SF
SF
NO (12-2)
5½
Pit (8-5-1)
NO
Pit
Sun. Nite
KC (11-3)
2½
SEA (8-6)
Sea
Sea
Mon. Nite
Den (6-8)
3
OAK (3-11)
Oak
Oak
Week 15
7-8-1
7-8-1
0.467
0.467
Season
125-96-5
107-114-5
0.566
0.484
Lock Total
9
9
All of our thoughts and observations can be heard here:
