Thu. Nite Texans @ Eagles

Philly is an 8½ point fav against Houston, and methinks that's a tad high.  Asante Samuel should return at CB for the Eagles, but Andre Johnson is a bad mofo to cover at 100%, much less with a balky knee.  This feels like a go-for-broke shootout with Houston smoking the Eagles D and Philly responding by torching the terrible Texans secondary.  I'll pick the Texans to cover when the smoke clears, but the Eagles to come out on top.

My Pick:  Philadelphia 34-27

2010 Week 12: What I Learned

• 8-8 record.  So much for the Thanksgiving home field theory.
• Poor Alphonso Smith.  The Detroit DB got absolutely tortured by the Patriots on Turkey Day, getting spun around and discarded on several plays, including a Deion Branch TD run-after-catch that gave simultaneous orgasms to his fantasy owners.  I was interested in what Tom Brady and Bill Belichick were trying to accomplish in the 4th quarter already up 38-24 and going for the final TD.  BenJarvis Green-Ellis eventually ran it in, but the two plays prior, Brady attempted to sneak it in unsuccessfully.  Hope it was worth almost getting the franchise QB killed trying to get him a meaningless rushing TD.
• The Saints ran out to a hot start on the Cowboys, but lost their 17-point lead thanks to 3 mistakes: a pick that bounced right off the receiver's hands, a wide open drop by Reggie Bush, and a Bush fumble on a punt return.  Fortunately for New Orleans, Dallas WR Roy Williams had the biggest gaffe of all, getting stripped racing toward the end zone up 27-23.  The Saints took that possession and scored the game-winning TD.  Unfortunately for Jason and me, the spread wasn't 3 but rather 3 and a hook.
• Strange game to end Thanksgiving--Carson Palmer made his patented drive-killing interceptions early in the game, yet Cincinnati fought back to take a halftime lead against the Jets.  They may have pulled off the upset if they could stop Brad Smith, who scored TDs on a reverse and a kickoff return in the 3rd quarter.  But after last year's Week 17 and subsequent playoff game, it's time to admit that the Jets certainly have the Bengals' number.
• OK, if any other interim coaches get a crack this season, I guess I have to pick that team no matter how shitty the team had played up to that point.  Congrats to Leslie Frazier, the newest Vikings skipper, on his win over the awful Redskins.  Here's hoping he's not psycho like his Bears teammate Mike Singletary.
• I felt really bad for Steve Johnson, the Bills WR who dropped the game-winning TD in OT against the Steelers, until I heard about his postgame tweet asking God how He could forsake him after all his previous faith.  God may have privately IM'd Johnson to remind him that, hey dipshit, I don't care about a fucking football game, you dropped the ball because you're not very good.  Guess we'll never know.  The story in this game was, Steelers dominate early, Bills fight back, Steelers ultimately win.  Pretty much the way everyone felt this one would go, with the exception of that clear Buffalo TD to win the damn game that was flat-out dropped.
• Amazing that Jake Delhomme didn't throw several bad balls for pick-6s to let Carolina come all the way back and win.  But he threw one, which was enough for Jason and me to get the backdoor cover.  Nice.  Yes, Delhomme got picked off; in other news, the sun came up.
• In a conspiracy theorist's dream, Andre Johnson will not be suspended for using Tennessee DB Cortland Finnegan's head as a punching bag Sunday, coinciding with Johnson, maybe the best WR in the business, playing in prime time this coming Thursday against Michael "Top Dog" Vick.  Seriously, can you see any scenario in which a black man rips a player's helmet off and just whales away on his dome and doesn't get suspended by El Capitan Roger Goddell immediately?  The only other tidbit to take away from this game: Never trust a black man named Cortland.
• That had to be the worst Giants run defense all year by a mile.  207 yards rushing as a team!  The Jacksonville Jaguars were running left, right, up the middle, any way you name it, they were running it.  How the hell do you lose rushing for over 200 yards?  Your horrible pass defense bails out your opponent.  Eli Manning hit TE Kevin Boss on a 3rd-down play, and Boss shook some weak tackling attempts to step into the end zone for the game winner.  Remember this game if the Giants make the playoffs.  A good rushing team could have a field day against New York's quick but light front 4.
• In what may be the Game of the Year, the Packers almost marched down to the Georgia Dome and put a rare home loss on Matt Ryan and the Falcons.  But two things were spotlighted that put an end to Green Bay's hopes for a win:  their glaring lack of a running attack, which would have helped balance their offense and given them a chance to keep up with Atlanta (that potent Packer aerial attack should never be held to 3 1st-half points), and the moxie of Ryan, who made bold throws into tight spots all day, including on the final drive to give the Falcons the game-winning FG.  You couldn't help but be a fan of Atlanta and Ryan after watching how they operate down in their home stadium.  They may not be impossible to beat in the Dome, but they will be a hell of a problem for a playoff opponent.
• If Kansas City makes the playoffs, will they be able to keep up the run-pass balance that has given them success this year?  A combo of Jamaal Charles running anywhere he pleases with a suddenly explosive Cassel-to-Bowe connection could be a nightmare.
• The Miami-Oakland tilt can be summed up this way:  Chad Henne hit his receivers on their routes all day, Bruce Gradkowski didn't.  This QB carousel in Oakland has to be maddening to all involved.  Jason Campbell will never be a consistent QB, I think we can all admit that.  But if every QB got pulled every time he had an off outing, no one would stay on the field.  I'm convinced Tom Cable would have found reason to sit Dan Marino if he were coaching in Miami in the '80s.
• Oh, now Baltimore wants to choke offensively and not get enough points to cover a somewhat large spread.  Now, when I pick them and Jason took the opposition.  Fuck you, Baltimore.  Fuck you.
• Man, I'd love to blame that dogshit turf at Soldier Field for slowing down Vick and the Eagles, but the fucking Bears seemed to be flying on that crap all day.  The offense was once again cohesive and opportunistic, burning whoever played RCB in place of Asante Samuel.  And this Chicago D is scary.  They refused to fly to Vick at all costs, instead surrounding him and making him throw into tight spots with varying degrees of success.  Sure, they hit Vick and sacked him when they could get there, but they didn't sell out and try to collapse his pocket using 3 or 4 blitzers.  They know that's asking for him to hit one of his fleet WRs with a quick slant or take off and run for days.  But I can't shake the thought that the Bears aren't for real and that their schedule will be their downfall.  For now, tip your cap to them--on Sunday, they were definitely better.
• Denver gave up a Thanksgiving cornucopia of blown coverages and soft defense to Sam Bradford and the Rams, and the result was 308 yards and 3 TDs for Bradford.  The Broncos came in to that game giving up 8.1 yards per pass attempt, which was 3rd most in the league.  It will probably go up.  Say goodnight to Josh McDaniels and the Broncos, who may not win again this year.
• This wasn't how I thought San Diego would knock out Indianapolis, using defense and running to stifle the Colts.  Four picks of Peyton Manning?  Did he and Jay Cutler switch bodies before Sunday's action?  As Manning's biggest fan, I have to say that he doesn't look right, but I really don't know what to attribute that to.  Yeah, he's missing weapons like Dallas Clark and Austin Collie, but he routinely has to adjust to new players in his lineup.  He's just plain bad lately.  Speaking of losing players, how many receivers has Philip Rivers had this year?  He finally gets Vincent Jackson back, and he immediately has a seat with a calf injury.  Rivers is lucky that the Chargers didn't have to rely on his arm in this one, because it seemed that he had trouble finding healthy pass catchers.  We'll see how that affects the Bolts in the next few games.
• My fiancee had to point me to Derek Anderson's postgame meltdown after he gagged it up for the Cardinals last night against Coach Psycho.  Derek put on quite the show during the game too, flinging the ball all around the greater Phoenix area, hitting everything but his intended receivers.  What I want to know is this:  As light as Arizona's D was hitting San Francisco, getting gashed for 261 yards on the ground, how did they manage to hit Frank Gore hard enough to break his hip?  When the fuck did that happen?  And what was the overnight rating for this eyesore of a game?  Will it be half of this Thursday night's Houston-Philly matchup now that Andre Johnson has gotten the hall pass from the principal?

Week 12 Records--Dre 8-8, .500; Jay 9-7, .563
YTD Records--Dre & Jay 92-82-2, .529

Week 12 ATS Recap: The Return of Robocop

A coworker of mine was reminiscing about the worst thing he ever saw in Pro Wrestling. It involved Robocop saving Sting from a "steel" cage during a pay per view card. I try to avoid wrestling as much as I can, but much like Al Pacino in "Godfather III," every time I think I'm away from wrestling, it pulls me back in. It doesn't help that many of my closest friends over my lifetime are big wrestling fans. So when I asked Dre about the "Return of Robocop," which of course he has on tape (?!?!?!), he pointed out that an entire PPV was framed around the appearance of Robocop, who spent all of roughly three minutes on screen. So, in other words, all our week 12 NFL games only had three less minutes of Robocop than an entire Robocop-themed wrestling card.

Thanksgiving Games

• Patriots 45, Lions 24 - Both winners - Much like our favorite Robocop baddie, Clarence Boddicker, the Lions kicked ass early but succumed to the Patriots late. Maybe they realized they were doomed to be forever known as the dad from "That 70s Show." This post now has more to do with "Robocop" than the freaking "Return of Robocop!" Robocop was based in Detroit, by the way. How fitting!

• Saints 30, Cowboys 27 - Both losers - Live by the hook, die by the hook. The Saints spent most of the game rolling the overmatched Cowboys. That is until the Pokes revealed their secret weapon: No it's not Robocop, it was Reggie Freaking Bush. Bush decided to show off all six weeks of rust from an injury in about a minute span of the game that resulted in two fumbles and allowed the Cowboys back into the game.

• Brad Smith 26, Bengals 10 - Both losers - After getting screwed by a hook, the Bengals decided to lay an egg and allow Brad Smith to explode on two long scoring plays. At least the Thanksgiving dinner was good.
  

Sunday and Monday Games

• Vikings 17, Redskins 13 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Looks like Jason Garrett Syndrome is contagious!


• Steelers 19, Bills 16 (OT) - Both winners - Steve Johnson must have thought the deep ball from Ryan Fitzpatrick that would have won the game was laced with toxic waste or something. Oh shit, that happened in "Robocop" too, minus the football.


• Browns 24, Panthers 23 - Both winners - Jake Delhomme threw a pick-6 to let Carolina back in the game. In other news: water is wet, the sky is blue, and a former drill sargeant makes a terrible therapist. Jake Delhomme = Jackwagon.


• Texans 20, Titans 0 - Both winners - A guy I worked with asked for a lock of the week for a friendly wager. I produced the Houston Texans.


• Giants 24, Jaguars 20 - Both winners - Yes, the Giants won, but they continue to play poorly at home.


• Falcons 20, Packers 17 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Hard to say I'm a loser on this one, since my Falcons improved to 9-2 and have an inside track on home field before them. The Packers showed a lot of heart, but the thing they lack Atlanta has in spades: balance. After watching the Dirty Birds win late and win often, was there any doubt Matt Ryan would get them the 20 yards they needed for a winning FG? I keep saying it, nobody in the NFC wants the road to the Super Bowl to run through Atlanta.


• Chefs 42, Seahawks 24 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Matt Cassel found Dwayne Bowe three times for touchdowns, and the Chiefs are trying to hang on to their division lead. It might not be enough to hold off the Chargers, but at least the Chiefs aren't going out like dogs. Yet.


• Dolphins 33, Raiders 17 - Both losers - What a difference an NFL quarterback makes. Apparently, 75% of Chad Henne is way more than 100% of Tyler Thigpen. It also hopes that Tom Cable's quarterback carousel imploded this week. My guess is we'll be seeing Jason Campbell again soon.


• Ravens 17, Buccaneers 10 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Live by the hook, die by the hook. Thank you, Josh Freeman! Garbage time FTW!


• Bears 31, Eagles 26 - Both losers - Are the Bears lucky? Sure. Let any team rack up some lucky wins and their confidence grows. That didn't look like the same Bears team that started the season, and these words hurt to say: the Bears have made the most of their luck and look like a pretty decent team. Wow, that hurt. A first round playoff exit still seems likely, however. I'm not crowning their asses yet.


• Rams 36, Broncos 33 - Both losers - The Rams were 0-4 on the road going into one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. Of course they won. That, folks, is NFL Action 2010. Catch the Parity!


• Chargers 36, Colts 14 - Both winners - As long as they playoffs aren't involved, the Bolts seem to own the Colts. Hey. that rhymed! Philip Rivers could have taken the day off, as Peyton Manning decided to gift wrap 14 points to the Chargers with a pair of pick-6's. Maybe Peyton is the Jackwagon this week? Nah, it's still Jake Delhomme.


• 49ers 27, Cardinals 6 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Was that Brian Westbrook I was watching? THE Brian Westbrook? I thought he was out of the league, or dead, or something. His career was left for dead after injuries and money ended his Philadelphia career, but just like our favorite cyborg crime fighter, Westbrook came back from the dead to punish creeps and save his teams playoff chances. That's right, Brian Westbrook wins the "Return of Robocop" award for the week.

It's about time Robocop made an appearance in a post about Robocop! Can't you just see Brian Westbrook saying "Drop it creep!"

Week 12: It's all square with 5 weeks of regular season action to go!

Jason 9-7

Dre 8-8

2010 Week #12

Here are the rest of Week 12's games.

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

Min (3-7)	1	WASH (5-5)			Wash	Min
Pit (7-3)	6	BUF (2-8)			Buf	Buf
CLE (3-7)	9½	Car (1-9)			Car	Car
HOU (4-6)	6	Tenn (5-5)			Hou	Hou
NYG (6-4)	7	Jack (6-4)			Jack	Jack
ATL (8-2)	1	GB (7-3)			Atl	GB
KC (6-4)	1	SEA (5-5)			KC	Sea
OAK(5-5)	1½	Mia (5-5)			Oak	Oak
BAL (7-3)	7½	TB (7-3)			Bal	TB
Phi (7-3)	3	CHI (7-3)			Phi	Phi
DEN (3-7)	3½	StL (4-6)			Den	Den
	Sun. Nite
IND (6-4)	2½	SD (5-5)			SD	SD
	Mon. Nite
SF (3-7)	1	ARIZ (3-7)			Ariz	SF

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• Pissed off over our 3-0 SU Turkey Day record but 1-2 ATS, I ventured out on a new strategy this week.  I somehow convinced myself that the home team must be awesome on the Sunday after Thanksgiving because who plays well traveling away from the family right after Turkey Day?  And last year's numbers bear that theory out.  Home teams on the Sunday and Monday after Thanksgiving last year were a staggering 11-2 SU and 7-6 ATS.  Cool beans, I thought, I'll make all of my close picks home team picks.  However, to do that, I'd have to ignore the Sunday and Monday after Thanksgiving from two years ago.  Those home team numbers?  3-10 SU, 4-9 ATS.  WTF.  Oh well, maybe this week I'll just use less numbers and stats period and go with what feels right.
• Of course, to start, here's a game where my pick has already been made for me thanks to the Brett Favre Rule.  I was hoping new Minnesota coach Leslie Frazier would have ended the Favre Era himself as his first act, but he can't because he's an interim coach, and he has to get as many wins as possible to audition for a full-time gig next year.  So he's forced to go with the Little Wrangler because as useless as he is, he's still more apt to win the game than Tarvaris Jackson.  Anyway, Jason cites the Jason Garrett Effect and thus will take the Vikings to bounce up and get a victory.  I think I'd take Washington even if I wasn't bound by the Favre Rule because the Vikings have been horrible, and that's not Brad Childress's fault.
• We'll take Buffalo to cover at home against Pittsburgh because we can't help it.  We just love those cuddly little scrappy Bills.
• We'll take Carolina to cover on the road against Cleveland because Cleveland is starting the Human Interception Machine Jake Delhomme at QB again.
• We'll take Houston to squoosh Tennessee because Tennessee is starting something named Rusty Smith at QB.
• We'll go with Jacksonville as another road pick ATS over the New York Giants.  It just feels like an Eli Manning Screw-Up Game.  It's a secondary that he should destroy, but he's missing his two best receivers, Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks.  Also, the Giants aren't sure what they want to do with their backfield.  Ahmad Bradshaw, clearly their most talented RB, will not start because he's been fumbling a lot.  But is Brandon Jacobs, who might outweigh Yokozuna at this point, the answer?  Manning and coach Tom Coughlin are both high-strung guys, and things have to be perfect for them to function.  Things aren't perfect.  Therefore, I will take the Jags straight up in a major upset.
• In a terrific matchup, Green Bay goes down to Atlanta, where the Falcons can't seem to lose.  I'll pick Matty Ice and the Dirty Birds just because they're at home.  Jason will step out on a limb and back the Pack.
• I admit it, I can't figure out the fucking Kansas City Chiefs.  I'll pick them at Seattle because I just think they're the better team, but I am still forecasting a Chief collapse at the end of the year.  Jason will go with Seattle, and I can't blame him because Seattle is the epitome of home field advantage, which is influencing so many of my picks this week.  But every time I go against KC, they screw me.
• More Chad Henne or more Bruce Almighty?  We'll pick Bruce Gradkowski and the Raiders over Henne and the Dolphins in the battle of crappy QBs.
• It was tough to give up 7½ points to an up-and-coming Tampa Bay squad, but I'll back Baltimore because, well, they're at home.  And they looked awesome in the 4th quarter against Carolina.  Jason will go with the Buccaneers because he can't resist taking 8 points and picking his guy Josh Freeman.
• I don't feel very confident in taking the Eagles over the Bears at Soldier Field, but Jason says to write that shit down.  He's got Jay Cutler for one of his patented 5 INT games.  There's a lot going against Philly for this pick--on the road, in frigid conditions, Michael Vick playing against the Cover-2 defense, which he traditionally struggles against, and the best Philly ballhawk who would go a long way towards picking off Cutler 5 times, CB Asante Samuel, is out.  Yet I'll still join Jason and take Philadelphia simply because I am of the firm belief that the Chicago Bears are successful due to their schedule and not because they're a cohesive unit.  I'm on record right now--the Bears aren't winning more than 2 games the rest of the season, and they won't make the playoffs.
• It was tough picking against Sam Bradford and the Rams too, because Denver is such a dog team, and their coach can't stay out of trouble (Josh McDaniels has another Spygate situation because one of his guys taped a SF practice before their game in London).  But we will give 3 and a hook and take the Broncos because, well, they're at home.  And St. Louis absolutely blows on the road.
• We can both see the Chargers continuing their hot streak and going into Indianapolis and taking out the Colts.  Vincent Jackson returns at WR for the Chargers, as if Philip Rivers needs more weapons, and Indy seems to have problems against San Diego in the regular season.  If the Bolts come to Indy in the playoffs, I'd take the Colts and give 10.
• And in the worst Monday night game EVAH, Jason will take Coach Psycho and the Niners because Arizona's really bad, and I'll take the Cardinals because, you guessed it, they're at home.

2010 Gobble Gobble

Happy Thanksgiving!  Here are our Turkey Day picks to start Week 12.  Sorry to disappoint, but they're going to look very similar.

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

	Thanksgiving
NE (8-2)	6½	DET (2-8)			NE	NE
NO (7-3)	3½	DAL (3-7)			NO	NO
	Thanksgiving Nite
NYJ (8-2)	9	Cin (2-8)			Cin	Cin

• We like the Patriots for slightly different reasons.  I think they are going to use the same balanced run/pass attack that enabled them to hold on and beat the Colts this past Sunday.  And there won't be a late comeback because the Lions don't have Peyton Manning.  Jason thinks the Pats will use a deep aerial attack and throw Detroit to death.
• We like the Saints because they're playing great, and they're going to pose a significant upgrade in difficulty for Dallas over the Lions.  We can see a back-and-forth affair and a lot of points scored, but we believe that New Orleans will be on top by a TD or more when the smoke clears .
• And we like the Bengals to cover because they've proven that they can't play a complete game, but they're good for a half or so of competitive football, and that should be enough to stay within 9 of the Jets.  Carson Palmer and Terrell Owens like to hook up for a couple of big plays each game whether they're getting beat by the Steelers or the Dolphins or the Bills, and that overrated Jets secondary will be happy to accommodate them.

2010 Week 11: What I Learned

• The most important lesson of the week:  When Jason gets sick of being under .500 for the season, he really does something about it.
• Fans are able to rate games and players in a given game at NFL.com, and the game rating is on a 1 to 100 scale, 1 being forgettable and 100 being memorable.  That Bears-Dolphins crib smothering was a 39.  That's failing on any test I've ever taken.  "Fail" would also describe Jake Long's blocking attempts on Julius Peppers, the Dolphins' game plan (they ran the ball 7 times for 12 whole yards, not counting QB scrambles), and the Bears the rest of the way thanks to a killer schedule.
• What must be Carson Palmer's mental state right now?  He gets his Bengals out to a huge lead in the 1st half, then the bad interceptions and overthrows come back, and he can't score a single point in the 2nd half as he watches the Buffalo Bills make like Zenyatta and come flying past everybody from behind.  Cincinnati more than maybe any other team in the league just cannot get out of its own way.  When you can't put away the Bills, how much farther is it to rock bottom?
• Hold on, don't get too giddy about the resurgent Dallas Cowboys.  They're still not whole yet.  They were playing a tight game back and forth with the awful Detroit Lions when a lucky special teams play (Bryan McCann grabbing a batted punt and running 97 yards for a TD) and a turnover by the Lions on a fumble sparked the Boys.  The pass rush took over from there.  Dallas gets a real team in New Orleans on Thanksgiving.  Let's see how they handle that assignment.
• I have no observations on Ariz-KC or Cle-Jack.  A bad team beat a worse team.
• I also don't have anything to add to the Oak-Pit game except to laugh at the score and wonder how anyone mistook the Raiders for a legit team.
• I also don't want to think about what happened in the Car-Bal game except to note one thing.  A successful deep ball should not be allowed by the Ravens to a QB who was a housewife a week ago if Baltimore is really a top contender themselves.  Yet there was Brian St. Pierre nailing David Gettis for an 88-yard TD in the 4th quarter to get the Panthers within a score.  Unacceptable.  Yes, the Ravens took two straight turnovers to the house to seal the deal later in the period, but it should have never had to get to that.
• Never a dull moment when the New York Jets play, huh?  I'd like to point out on the good side that I can hardly believe my eyes when I watch some of the throws Mark Sanchez makes compared to what he was doing last year.  Do you remember 5 INTs against Buffalo?  That Dirty Sanchez seems to be a thing of the past.  He made some really good pro throws this Sunday.  Granted, it was against Houston, but he looks like he knows what he's doing.  Now to point out on the bad side:  Um, I thought the Jets defense was going to be as good as it gets this year and that Revis Island in particular was going to be impenetrable.  Don't look now, but that was the Jets D giving up all manner of yards and points in the 2nd half, allowing the Texans to grab a late lead and forcing Sanchez and the offense to come to the rescue.  Can they win in the playoffs with that formula?  I'm betting no.
• Goodnight, Mssr. Chilly, and turn out the lights on the Metrodome, since the Vikings will now be a real contender to jump to Los Angeles soon.  Of course Jason got this right too.  Vikings go down like cheerleaders at a frat party, and Chilly is shown the door.  Lots of yapping on various talk shows about what should now happen to the Little Wrangler.  Bench?  Cut?  Play out the string?  I say let him play until someone sits on his head and breaks him open on the field like eggs.  What difference does it make?  You don't have to get a look at backup QB Tarvaris Jackson to know that he absolutely sucks.
• I'll take full credit for this one--Redskins go against a more dysfunctional QB-coach combo than theirs, and find a way to win.  What I find interesting is the contrast between Coach Fisher's comments ("Vince is no longer the starter") in the Titans post-game presser and the owner Bud Adams sounding like he has zero plans to let go of VY anytime soon.  Jerry Jones just got a hard-on at the thought of Fisher leaving Tennessee in a him-or-me huff.
• What do the Falcons do against a team they should handle if they're really legit?  Double them up, that's what.  Impressive.  Keep an eye on the Dirty Birds.
• I'm inclined to think, on the other hand, that Tampa Bay's impressive road shutout over Coach Psycho was a mirage, and here's why:  TB came into that game with 8 team sacks the whole season, and they racked up 6 against the 49ers and their previously unflappable QB Troy Smith.  Did the Bucs front 4 force Smith into a terrible game, or was it the Niners and a bad and banged-up O-line?  Let me see Stylez G. White and the rest of the Tampa defensive linemen make some more plays, and then I might start to believe.
• OK, I guess Matt Hasselbeck doesn't make that big of a difference after all.  Watch out for the World champs.
• ...and Tom Brady's STILL YELLING.  He took the most screamy, intense knees you've ever seen to run out the clock and beat the Colts.  This dude's seriously got his panties in a bunch about something.  He's throwing the hell out of the ball while doing all that yelling, and it should have been enough, combined with a staunch New England running attack, to put down Indianapolis and cover 4 points easily.  Of course, I picked against Peyton Manning, so he had to lead a comeback to cover the number and almost win the game.  Any windy conditions Sunday night on the East Coast were worsened by everyone in New England exhaling when Manning floated a bad pass and got picked off inside the NE 10-yard line with 31 seconds to go.  What a finish.
• Plenty of mistakes plagued both the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles, and I didn't like what I saw from either team.  Philly settled for way too many FGs after hitting big plays for large chunks of yards.  You gotta put the fucking ball in the end zone when you're hitting 20 and 30-yard pass plays in rapid succession.  There was the Jason Avant wide-open TD drop and Asante Samuel coughing up an INT and giving the ball right back to New York, and the fumbles by Michael Vick, who was carrying the rock way too loose.  He seemed genuinely surprised that a defender was trying to tackle him in his own backfield and take his football away.  And the Giants, of course, had major fuck-ups that cost them the game.  Ahmad Bradshaw couldn't hold on to the ball.  The Giant D put the whole organization in the box on a late 4th down, and the bobbled pitch back to RB LeSean McCoy resulted in a 50-yard TD.  And words can't describe how dumb Eli Manning had to be to dive face first and fumble the ball after a successful scramble.  If he slides feet first, the ball is dead and the fumble doesn't count.  Too many bonehead plays for me to like either squad to go all the way.  Oh, and Eli's favorite target, Hakeem Nicks, is out for the next 3 weeks.  Oh shit.
• How do you know it's the San Diego Chargers' night?  When even the special teams makes plays!  They faked a punt in the 1st quarter, and the punter threw a 29-yard completion.  Yes, even the punter racks up big pass plays for the Bolts.  And San Diego gets its best receiver, Vincent Jackson, back next week.  That would be the cue for the rest of the AFC West to say:  Oh shit.

Week 11 Records--Dre 9-7, .563; Jay 13-3, .813 (!!)
YTD Records--Dre 84-74-2, .532; Jay 83-75-2, .525

Week 11 ATS Recap: Valhalla

In Scandinavian mythology, Valhalla is a place where the honored who died in combat are sent to be with the gods. We saw a metaphor for that play out on the fields of Minneapolis this last Sunday. Brett Favre: legend, savior, sexter, gunslinger, diva....welcome to Valhalla.

Valhalla is also as close as you can get in a pagan religion to a symbol of heaven. A euphoric, heavenly feeling descended upon yours truly this week, in a "I shoulda gone to Vegas" 13-3 week against the spread. I, too, should take my place in IMLD Valhalla, because the only thing that happens after a week like this is disaster.

• Bears 16, Dolphins 0 (Thursday Nights) - Both winners - We got the weekend started (NFL network tagline) with a pretty easy one here. The theme of the week was unprepared, sacrificial lamb quarterbacks. Up first: Tyler Thigpen. Tyler had about as much chance as Bobby Thigpen or Yancey Thigpen out there at QB. Those are all the Thigpens I know in sports. The talk after a single prime time game, as it was with Atlanta the week before, centered around the legitimacy of the Bears as contenders. I'm not sold, but with a matchup coming up against the Eagles, the Bears will have a chance to show their mettle.
• Bills 49, Bengals 31 - Both winners - This pick looked dreadful early on, as Cincy ran out to a 28-7 lead. Not knowing what to do with a lead, the Bungles coughed it up Houston Playoff Style to of course, the Buffalo Bills. Was that Frank Reich back there leading the furious comeback? This one didn't end up being close, as the Bills put the lead foot on the accelerator and never took it off.
• Cowboys 35, Lions 19 - Both winners - I'm still on my Jason Garrett worked hard to get Wade Phillips fired mantra.
• Chiefs 31, Cardinals 13 - Jason winner, Dre loser - We had a bet on this pick, Shaq/Kobe style. This one's for you Dre! There's a special message at the end of this posting for Dre, who plays the part of Kobe.
• Jets 30, Texans 27 - Both losers - Ah, Houston. If you're going to grind out a gutty win on the road, you have to finish it. The Texans once again suffered a bitter road defeat, and I'll be damned but the same guy who played volleyball with Mike Thomas gave up the game winner to Santonio Holmes. Where's Gus Johnson when we need him? Jaguars 24, Browns 20 - Jason winner, Dre loser - The difference in this one came on the ground. Maurice Jones-Drew is pretty much keeping the Jags in postseason discussions all by himself. This team doesn't pass the eye test, though, the AFC may prove just a little too tough for Jacksonville. Credit too the Browns, Dre's favorite new QB (Colt McCoy) looked pretty good for yet another week.
• Steelers 35, Raiders 3 - Both winners - If the rest of the Raiders had shown as much fight as Richard Seymour, this might have been a game. Sure, what Seymour did was cheap, but really...who doesn't want to punch Bathroom Ben in the face?
• Ravens 37, Panthers 13 - Jason winner, Dre loser - This game was pretty close until very late. Dre thought the Ravens offense couldn't cover the spread on its own, and he was right. Fortunately for me, the Ravens defense did. Brian St. Pierre is indeed French for "it's not enough."
• Packers 31, Vikings 3 - Both winners - Looks like Dre might not have to put up with the Brett Favre Rule for too much longer. In other news: Have a coach you want canned? Bring in the Green Bay Packers. They'll make your team look so awful you'll have no choice but to fire the coach. Upcoming bookings: San Francisco, NY Giants, and the Chicago Bears.
• Redskins 19, Titans 16 - Both winners - In the wake of another Vince Young injury, some guy named Rusty Smith is starting at QB for the Titans this upcoming week. I've never heard of the guy, and I'd heard of Tony freakin Pike, so that can't be good for poor Rusty. Rusty lived up to his name in the waning moments of the game, and the Redskins capitalized again. The Skins might not be a good team, but the can smell the blood when it's in the water. I thus dub them the Washington Sharks.
• Falcons 34, Rams 17 - Both winners - This one went down pretty much how I expected it to. The Rams showed a lot of fight early on their home turf, but the Falcon offense that just seems to look better every week ground them down and wore out the Ram defense. Solid road win for the 8-2 Falcons who get a big test this week hosting the Packers. If a team can exploit the Falcons, it's through the air, and all the Packers can do is throw. Fortunately, Mike Smiths job is safe, or is it? (dunnn dunnnn DUNNNNNNN)
• Bucs 21, Niners 0 - Both winners - Pretty much what we expected here, too. We got fancy, picking the Niners to win but not cover 3½. Fortunately, the Niners getting their doors blown off by the Team Formerly Known as the Best in the NFC counts as win.
• Saints 34, Seahawks 19 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Dre believes in Matt Hasselbeck. That's good enough for me.
• Patriots 31, Colts 28 - Both losers - Peyton Manning channeled his inner Brett Favre, throwing a pick in field goal range when a field goal could have sent the game to overtime. Dre nailed this one, even though we lost the pick with the points, the Pats exposed the Colts defense all game on the ground with a nice balance. That won't work every week for the Pats since they don't get to play Indy every week, though. New England is the AFCs answer to the Packers. Wouldn't a rematch of Super Bowl XXXI be a ton of fun to watch?
• Eagles 27, Giants 17 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Say what you want about Mike Vick: he wins games. Plain and simple. No highlight package plays this week, just the threat of a healthy Vick on the field is enough to open things up for the offense and keep the defense on it's heels. The Former Best Team in the NFC succumbed to the Chic Pick Best Team in the NFC, and now the Giants look to be reeling. The NFC East isn't an automatic for two playoff berths this year, and the Eagles look like the team ready to grab the division crown.
• Chargers 35, Broncos 14 - Dre winner, Jason loser - The Chargers are the anti-Giants. While the Giants progressively get worse as the season goes on, the Chargers just get stronger and stronger. They now look like the best team in the AFC West, especially after the showing the first place Raiders put up. You can almost pencil the Chargers in for a playoff berth now, and a comfy first round exit.

Week 11:

Dre 9-7 (normally very impressive - just kidding, any week over .500 is a victory)

Jason 13-3 (words can't describe - 4-12 week upcoming)

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