Week 14 ATS Recap: Picks Sick

Well, I had a built in excuse if there was a bad week of picks: the flu. But, since I ended up 9-6-1, I can now say I gutted out a tough week of picks and prevailed. Changing the commentary based on the result may seem a bit convenient, but if it works for major sports media, why can't it work for the little guys too?

• Colts 30, Titans 28 (Thursday Night) - Both losers - The Titans passed up an opportunity with :32 remaining to kick a quick field goal and attempt the onside kick to maybe, you know, TRY TO WIN THE GAME. They opted instead to kill all the remaining time and score the ultimate meaningless touchdown with no time left and produce a spread covering two point margin. This left even me, in no way a degenerate gambler, to ponder whether this was a sports move motivated by Vegas. Where's Tim Donaghy when we need him?
• Falcons 31, Panthers 10 - Both winners - When presented with an opponent they should crush, Atlanta has been fairly reliable ATS this season. We didn't expect that the Panthers would present that trend much of a challanege. They didn't.
• Pittsburgh 9+14 Carson Palmer Points, Bengals 7 - Dre winner, Jason loser - It's hard to win, much less cover the spread, when your quarterback is playing for both teams.
• Lions 7, Packers 3 - Both losers - Easily the most unbearable game of the year to watch. Drew Stanton outdueled Matt Flynn in a colossal bore of a football game. Aaron Rodgers better shake off the cobwebs real quick, or the season is over for Green Bay.
• Jaguars 38, Raiders 31 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Thanks to the Oakland defense for allowing MJD to scamper 30 yards for a very late game winning TD when a field goal would have won it, and that same field goal would have lost me the pick.
• Buccaneers 17, Redskins 16 - PUSH - Yeah, we didn't win the pick, but it was awesome watching my favorite coach in football have to lose a game on a missed snap on a PAT. Christmas came early.
• Bills 13, Browns 6 - Both winners - Never thought we'd see the day that picking a Ryan Fitzpatrick helmed team would be a surer bet than a Jake Delhomme helmed team.
• Niners 40, Seahawks 21 - Both losers - Indeed we were caught in a trap, and we couldn't walk out. The beauty of an Elvis game is that you just know you are going to lose it.
• Patriots 36, Bears 7 - Both winners - I was high on New England ATS the whole week. Once I learned that the same blizzard that was socking me here in Wisconsin was going to hit Chicago the next day, my high turned into love. We don't pat ourselves on the back much here at IMLD, but this was the lock of all locks, and watching it unfold was pure joy. Sure, all these picks are equal in the standings, but for just three snowy hours in Chicago, all was right in the universe. By the way: the Bears ARE who we thought they were.
• Dolphins 10, Jets 6 - Both winners - The hangover of getting manhandled by the Pats the week before must have stayed with the Jets the entire week. This is looking more like the overconfident, underwhelming Jets team that started the season and not the midseason juggernaut they turned into. They better recapture that midseason form, or the Mark Sanchez Experience may be much shorter than we thought.
• Cardinals 43, Broncos 13 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Clearly the miraculous midseason coaching change tactic isn't as surefire as it looked. The John Skelton (WHO?) led Cards could have scored 80 if they hadn't relied on what seemed like 9 Jay Feely field goals. Actually, it was 6 Feely field goals to go along with his rushing touchdown on a fake field goal, making Feely the greatest single game fantasy kicker of all time. What's more disgusting: that the 49ers saved their playoff chances, or that the 4-9 Cards still have a chance to WIN THE DIVISION?
• Chargers 31, Chiefs 0 - Jason winner, Dre loser - When I informed Dre that the Chefs were starting o-for-his-career Brody Croyle, he still wanted to pick KC. I didn't argue.
• Eagles 30, Cowboys 27 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Did I believe the Cowboys would win? No. Did I believe I would jinx myself trying to look slick and take the 3-and-a-hook line? Yep. Thanks, backdoor hook cover!
• Ravens 34, Texans 27 (OT) - Both winners - Honestly, I was in bed thinking this pick was all locked up. Hey, I was still recovering from being sick, OK? So when I woke up to see that the game was close and even went to OT, I was glad to see that Matt Schaub saved us a push by throwing a convenient pick-6!
• Giants 21, Vikings 3 - Both losers - As the Metrodome served as a metaphor for Brett Favre's final season, his Vikings played as deflated as their home turf. The Giants pass rush was too much for Tavaris Jackson (how would it have been to see Favre back there, purple hand and all), and the Giant rushing attack ripped long gainers when they needed them to propel the G-men to a much easier than even the score indicated victory.

After giving up all the hard earned games I fought for the last several weeks, Dre just about handed them all right back:

Jason 9-6-1

Dre 6-9-1

2010 Week 14: What I Learned

• Nice job on some goofy late afternoon games by Jason.  The records tighten up as we get closer to playoff time.  Yes, Jim Mora, I said playoffs.
• Games that I don't want to discuss in any detail at all: Falcons-Panthers (man, Carolina sucks), Packers-Lions (already struggling offense has no chance against Lions' front 4 once Aaron Rodgers gets KO'd), Patriots-Bears (good team murders OK team, nothing to see here), Broncos-Cardinals (I'm not even gonna try to make sense out of that shit), Chiefs-Chargers (KC can't move the ball at all with QB Brodie Croyle, and Philip Rivers finds some receivers after all), and Giants-Vikings (my contingency pick fails miserably because the G-Men smother Adrian Peterson and injure Tarvaris Jackson).
• The ol' backdoor cover on the last play of the game may have fucked up the night of many degenerate gamblers out there, but the story of the Colts-Titans game was the return of Peyton Manning.  It took a real commitment to putting the ball where the defense was weak regardless of who the receiver was, but Manning regained his command of the offense.  There were still signs of imperfection in the Colts offense, such as the continued lackluster running attack and the occasional receiver knocking a pass down in the end zone clearly intended for a different wide open receiver.  But I won't focus on the fact that if that Reggie Wayne TD occurs instead of being deflected by Blair White, Indy covers the number.  I'll keep watching Peyton and noticing if he keeps trusting his weapons, because it's obvious that's the only way the Colts will have success the rest of the way.
•  Pittsburgh looked to be in a little trouble after Cincinnati scored a TD on its opening possession, but as it turned out, the Bungles wouldn't score again all day.  It wasn't a good day for the Steelers offense, as they wouldn't score a TD at all, but the vaunted Pitt D picked up the slack with 2 defensive scores.  The team that can dominate a given game in several totally different ways is the most dangerous of them all.
• My head hurts after watching Oakland control the game against Jacksonville into the 3rd quarter and cough it up.  It was actually one of the better games played by the Raiders statistically all year, as Jason Campbell threw for 324 yards, and Darren McFadden accounted for 209 yards of offense and 3 TDs.  The Men in Black marched up and down the field on the Jags and led by 10 in the 3rd quarter.  But some nifty running by Rashad Jennings and well-placed passes from David Garrard--along with an Oakland special teams fumble--moved Jacksonville in front.  Then the double home runs to end the game:  McFadden ties it with under 4 minutes left with a 36-yard run, complete with bitch-slapping stiff-arm at the end, but then a huge KO return by the Jags, setting up Maurice Jones-Drew for a 30-yard TD run of his own to take the lead back and cover the number.  What to take away from all that?  Both defenses need tackling lessons.
• Bizarre doesn't begin to describe the Buccaneers-Redskins game.  How did the Redskins manage to fuck up the snap for the game-tying PAT??  Tampa didn't want Washington to get all the press for having an execrable run defense, so they decided to let the returning Ryan Torain run for 7,591 yards in the 1st half.  And Josh Freeman fumbled at the 1 to give the Skins a gift possession.  And Washington appeared to maybe get a "5th down" in scoring what should have been the game-tying TD.  AND WASHINGTON STILL LOST!!!  How shitty is this team?  This coach?  This franchise?  This kicker, who blew early FGs when Torain was running everywhere and may have blown the PAT if only they could have gotten the snap down?  And before you give Tampa Bay credit for getting the W, they still haven't beaten a team with a winning record.  And they really shouldn't have beaten this shitty team.
• 86 yards passing, no TDs, a fumble, and the clinching INT that allowed Buffalo to run out the clock and end the game.  Ladies and gentlemen, you know him, you love him, Jake Delhomme!  And he's still starting...why, exactly?
• The potential playoff preview in New Orleans wasn't quite as one-sided as the score may seem.  The Rams had promising drives all over the place, they just coughed up the football when it was time to score some points.  I'm not saying that the Saints wouldn't create more takeaways in a rematch, but keep in mind that if they don't, then they have to shore up a defense that allowed 327 net yards of offense to St. Louis.  Similar to last year, the champs will have to make huge plays on the ball in the playoffs in order to back up their prodigious offense and win games.
• Oh, the Elvis Game.  Wow.  Seattle was stuck in a nasty cycle against San Francisco and could not escape it.  Bad throw by Matt Hasselbeck, nice drive for a score by San Fran, fumble by Hasselbeck, drive by SF, lather, rinse, repeat.  Even though the Seahawks had WR injuries and the replacements looked lost at times, I cannot excuse Hasselbeck's performance.  He was terrible, and the 49ers D forced him to be.  They got pressure and made him hurry his passes, and his green receivers couldn't find the ball when they were supposed to.  On the other side of the ball, Alex Smith had much success in his return to the Niners lineup, much to my surprise.  His 2 main weapons were TE Vernon Davis and WR Josh Morgan.  Davis is no shock, but Morgan sure was.  He and Smith looked like longtime pals tossing the pigskin around.  If they can keep that up, maybe SF can win that horrible division after all.
• A comedy of errors would be the only fitting term to describe the offensive offense of the New York Jets.  All 10 of Miami's points came off Jets turnovers, and 10 was enough to win the game.  I love listening to the Dan Le Batard Show from Miami after the Dolphins beat the Jets, because Dan loves giving it to all the transplanted New Yawkers infesting South Beach.  I simply adore these two truthful stats Le Batard took from the Fins-Jets game:  1, the Jets now have 1 more assistant coach who trips opposing players during games than they have offensive TDs since Thanksgiving; and 2, they now have 1 more assistant coach who trips opposing players during games than they have Super Bowl titles in the last 40 years.  That franchise is the drizzling shits.  Oh, and that meathead coach is fired immediately if he's black and the player he tripped was white.  You know it's true.
• Yes, the Eagles beat the Cowboys, and yes, they made explosive plays happen all over the field seemingly at will.  DeSean Jackson running some 80 yards after the catch for a TD on a sprained ankle was awesome; his juvenile fall into the end zone was typical.  But something's missing from the Michael Vick Experience--that home run ability when he sprints out of the pocket is gone, and I have no idea if it will return this year.  You gotta remember that Vick is taking on his first full season since getting out of the pokey, and his body takes such a beating in every game that there has to be some cumulative effect.  Vick ran for all of 16 yards in this game, and not only that, but he's getting careless with the ball (4 picks and 7 fumbles his last 4 games).  And one more bad sign for Philly--they lost their middle LB Stewart Bradley to injury again, and they're not the best defensive team as it is.  They really seem to struggle tackling people when Bradley is missing.
• A tremendous comeback by Matt Schaub and the Houston Texans, a dreadful ending when he throws a pick-6 to end the game in OT.  But Jason and I covered the spread thanks to that pick, so we didn't mind.  Similar to New Orleans, Baltimore is going to have to make a ton of plays on the ball and create turnovers if they are to advance deep in the playoffs because they're susceptible to giving up chunks of yardage at any given time.  Those old horses on D don't get after it like they used to; their 24 team sacks is tied for 20th in the league, and their 13 INTs is tied for 15th.  However, their 3 pick-6s are as many as any other team.  If they could draw a garbage QB with a penchant for giving up the booty--like, I dunno, a Mark Sanchez--the Ravens could fly high in the postseason.

Week 14 Records--Dre 6-9-1, .400; Jay 9-6-1, .600
YTD Records--Dre 108-97-3, .527; Jay, 106-99-3, .517

2010 Week #14

Here are the picks for an icy and weatherbeaten Week 14.

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

	Thu. Nite
Ind (6-6)	3	TENN (5-7)	Ind 30-28		Ind	Ind
	Sunday
Atl (10-2)	7½	CAR (1-11)			Atl	Atl
PIT (9-3)	9	Cin (2-10)			Pit	Cin
GB (8-4)	6½	DET (2-10)			GB	GB
JACK(7-5)	3½	Oak (6-6)			Oak	Jack
TB (7-5)	1	WASH (5-7)			TB	TB
BUF(2-10)	1	Cle (5-7)			Buf	Buf
NO (9-3)	9½	StL (6-6)			StL	StL
SF (4-8)	5½	Sea (6-6)			Sea	Sea	Elvis
NE (10-2)	1½	CHI (9-3)			NE	NE
NYJ (9-3)	5	Mia (6-6)			Mia	Mia
Den (3-9)	4	ARIZ (3-9)			Den	Ariz
SD (6-6)	9½	KC (8-4)			KC	SD
	Sun. Nite
Phi (8-4)	3½	DAL (4-8)			Phi	Dal
	Mon. Nite
Bal (8-4)	3	HOU (5-7)			Bal	Bal
NYG (8-4)	3	MIN (5-7)				Min

Our thoughts and observations were even less detailed than usual due to Jason's illness.  They included:

• Atlanta just keeps winning, and Carolina just keeps being Carolina.  Looking ahead a little, we were wondering who could possibly be picked to walk into the Georgia Dome and knock off the Falcons if they were to indeed clinch home field throughout the playoffs?  The Eagles?  Sure, they busted the Falcons in the fucking mouth in Week 6, but that was in Philly.  The Giants?  The Bears?  The Pack, who already lost down there?  The Saints, who will lose down there a week from Monday?  Honestly, if Atlanta is hosting two playoff games, aren't they a mortal lock to go to Dallas in February?
• Jason referred back to the Jeff Blake Corollary in taking the Bengals to cover the big number at Pittsburgh.  He took the Steelers in Week 10, going against the Jeff Blake Corollary, and we escaped with a cover, but he couldn't resist this time.  I'll gladly take Pittsburgh to cover over Cincinnati once again.
• The Packers keep winning, and the Lions keep being the Lions.  One observation I made during the Lions loss last week to the Bears that was very telling was that Detroit made a turnover in the 3rd quarter, stripping Bears QB Jay Cutler on a sack.  The Lions were already up 3 at that point.  They hit Calvin Johnson in the 2nd quarter on a TD pass that looked easy as pie.  So here goes 2 or 3 attempts to get the rock to Calvin after this turnover so that Detroit can get a 2-possession lead, right?  Not quite.  Run, sack, pass to the TE, kick FG.  Dumb, dumb, dumb.  Not one throw for Megatron??  Just throw it up and let him grab it!  Just once!  And that's why Detroit has averaged 4 wins every year this decade.  Same old sorry ass Lions.
• I guess the violence that the Oakland Raiders running game perpetrated upon the Chargers last week left an impression on me, because I will pick Oakland to go into Jacksonville and beat Jason's 1st place Jaguars.  I know that the Jags are running hard too with Maurice Jones-Drew, but they come up short defending the pass every week, and I think it will cost them this time.
• Washington's so bad that I think they will take advantage of Tampa Bay missing their best cover CB Aqib Talib and put up some yards through the air, and they'll still get whipped.  Fantasy geeks, watch for Bucs RB LeGarrette Blount to have a huge game, because the Redskins can't stop anyone from running the ball down their throats.
• More Jake Delhomme starting at QB for the Browns?  Our prediction?  More pain!  Despite taking the loss last week, we will once again go against the Human Interception Machine, and we'll root for those plucky Bills one more week.
• We'll take those big points and pick the Rams to cover at New Orleans.  This is a potential playoff preview, unfortunately.  St. Louis is right there contending for the rancid NFC West, and they could host the Saints in a 1st round game.  And the line would still be New Orleans favored by 9 or 10 points.
• It's time to introduce you three faithful readers of IMLD to the Elvis Game.  This is a game that appears to be such an easy pick by me and Jason that in deference to our overconfidence, we declare that it must be a trap game, that Vegas must know something we don't to make such a seemingly lopsided line.  Jason then refers to an Elvis song called "Suspicious Minds" which contains the lyric, "We're caught in a trap."  Thus, the Elvis Game.  We had quite a few of those last year, and indeed, most of the time over the years we lost the Elvis Game.  This week, the spread for Seattle-San Francisco seems too good to be true.  Coach Psycho is switching back to the ineffective Alex Smith at QB after getting routed at Green Bay.  Seattle is coming off a paddling of the Panthers.  So why the fuck is San Fran giving 5½ points?  We both love the Seahawks to get the W, which is why we feel so confident that the spread is a joke, which is why this pick is a trap game.  Confidence may be very sexy according to Sean Connery, but overconfidence is usually a bad sign in our case.
• We will gladly take New England to go into icy conditions and trounce the still overrated Chicago Bears.  If there's one QB and offense in that game that we know handles snow and wind, it's not Jay Cutler and the Bears.  We still can't get over the 59-0 assault of Tennessee that the Patriots delivered a couple of years ago in snowy, slushy weather.  I won't call that score, but I will predict another 3 TD passes for Tom Bieber.
• We will take the 5 points in New York and pick the Dolphins to cover against Rex Ryan and the humbled Jets.  Feels like another late comeback win for the reeling J-E-T-S, but I bet most of us would not be disappointed with a Miami victory.
• In the battle of two crap squads that make me vomit at the thought of having to take either, I'll give points to take the Broncos just so I don't have to pick the Goddamn Arizona Cardinals anymore this year.  (Of course, in the last 3 weeks they play 2 more teams that I want no part of, Carolina and San Fran.)  The running game has impressed lately, so hopefully Knowshon Moreno can do enough work to open up passing lanes for Air Orton.  Jason likes the thought of a no-name bum starting for Arizona and providing the answer they've been searching for all along, so he'll go with John Skelton as the new QB to lead the Cardinals to the promised land.  And he points out that anyone on the fence about Kurt Warner being a Hall of Fame QB should take one look at this shit team.  How far have they fallen without Warner leading the offense?
• Jason will pick the Chargers to put the hammer down on the Chiefs as they try to rally to yet another AFC West title.  I will take more big points here with Kansas City, as they get 9½ in San Diego.  I'm not back on the KC bandwagon at all, but rather, I continue to keep a close eye on the vaunted Charger passing game and how they've struggled the last couple of weeks.  Those receivers are still beat up, and Philip Rivers is wanting for a guy to run a route without coming up lame.  Vincent Jackson will try to go again after pulling a calf muscle.  Good luck.
• Jason will take the hook and go with the surging Cowboys, who are getting 3½ hosting Philadelphia.  He may say he likes Dallas to win as well, but really, he would only pick Big D if he had to pick straight up because he's sick of getting cute and taking a team to cover but not win.  Jason's Garrett Theory of new Dallas coach Jason Garrett holding back on the good offensive plays until Wade Phillips got fired continues to hold up.  I'll give 3 and the hook and take the Eagles because Michael Vick got to rest 10 days to get ready for this one, and because DeSean Jackson loves coming to Dallas and showing off his prodigious speed and retarded end zone dance steps.
• We like Baltimore to cover 3 at Houston, who are playing for pride at this point.  I think it will be a shootout with Arian Foster doing work on the ground and Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson keeping up in the air, but I think that the Ravens and Joe Flacco prevail ultimately.  Jason doesn't think it will be close.
• And finally, a 2nd Monday night game.  Weather forced the New York Giants to go to Minneapolis a day late, and the NFL pushed their game against the Vikings to Monday night.  Yes, there is no pick in my space.  That's because I would like to execute the first-ever Contingency Pick here at IMLD.  As you know, the Brett Favre Rule states that I will not pick Favre ever again in a game that he starts.  But as of press time, he still can't lift his damn arm.  I find it impossible to believe that he will play in this game, and if he doesn't, I like Minnesota to focus on Adrian Peterson and the rushing attack and ride All Day to victory.  But if Favre starts, of course, I can't pick the Vikings.  So I have it on record that my pick is Minnesota if Tarvaris Jackson goes, and New York if Brett Favre goes.  You degenerate gamblers will recognize this as an If Bet, which counts only if a previous bet wins.  Jason is not a prisoner of any silly rules, so he'll pick the Vikings regardless of who starts.

Thursday Quick Pick

The Titans have mailed it in. Give me the Colts to rebound in an ugly short week matchup.

Colts 27-13

2010 Week 13: What I Learned

• So what's my Quit List look like?  The Fed Ex Mail-It-In list of teams that appear to have quit this season and will not be picked by me the rest of the year is currently:  Panthers, 49ers, Bengals, Redskins, and whomever's lucky enough to lose in Week 14 between the Broncos and the Cardinals.
• Not only did the Texans-Eagles game go almost exactly how I thought it would (scoring back and forth, up and down the field like a scrimmage) but I almost nailed the final score as well.  Houston failed to get one more score to cover the number for us only because QB Matt Schaub got stripped on his last drive, not because the Philly D stepped up and shut the Texans down.  The only thing that struck me as something to take away from the game, besides the fact that Eagles RB LeSean McCoy is the man, is that QB Michael Vick can't possibly survive the rest of the season and playoffs in one piece.  He's starting to slow down on those escapes from the pocket, and he's getting pounded as a result.  And that wasn't a great defense mashing his ass and making him limp off the field Thursday, that was the fucking Houston Texans.  Not good at all.
• Tennessee's on the watch list to maybe start mailing it in, seeing as they have managed to go 13 quarters without an offensive TD.  Boy, that Moss guy is sure making a difference.  How did Jacksonville win with only 126 yards in the air?  Well, when you run for 258 on the ground, that helps.  ESPN Football Today podcast host Ross Tucker thinks this is it for Jeff Fisher in Nashville, that he'll walk away at season's end.  I can see it happening.  And Jerry Jones is on his knees praying that it happens so that he can bring Fisher down to Big D.
• 200 yards rushing by the Giants?  4 rushing TDs?  New York up 21-0 at the half and 28-0 in the 3rd?  Man, Washington could have used someone to help even the odds.  A big run stuffing DT, perhaps.  I hear they gave $100 million to someone named Albert Haynesworth.  Maybe they could have played him Sunday if the Redskins head coach wasn't a complete tool.  And today, said tool Mike Shanahan attempted to suspend Haynesworth without pay for the rest of the year, which I think is going to get reversed because Haynesworth didn't kill anyone or get any warnings that his conduct was so detrimental that he was risking suspension.  Basically, Shanny threw a hissy fit and tried to pull a Childress and throw someone off the team for not having a nice attitude.  Some of these coaches think they're God, and they're the farthest thing from it.
• Miami tripped and fell all over themselves against Cleveland, and they fell right out of playoff contention in losing their 5th home game in 6 tries.  The short crossing routes that QB Chad Henne had success with last week didn't work so well this week because receivers were tripping and messing up routes, and because the few times the Dolphins attempted to go deep, Henne overthrew or underthrew his man and got picked.  Guess Miami got it right when they tried to demote Henne only to watch every other QB in the organization catch SARS or get hit by a bus.
• Drew Stanton ran a TD in for the Lions against the Bears and decided to use his end zone time to premiere worldwide for the 1st time, the White Boy Dougie.  I knew Detroit was going to lose the moment he did that.  A bad roughness penalty call against Ndamukong Suh helped immensely, as the Lions DT clubbed a scrambling Jay Cutler from behind with such force that the referee nervously and incorrectly called Suh for a blow to the back of the head.  The Lions and coach Jim Schwartz seemed to lose their poise after that, and the Bears scored the game winning TD on the next play.  So that's 0-2 straight up for me picking Detroit to upset Chicago this year.  But that's 2-0 ATS.  I'll take it!
• That's all for Josh McDaniels, the Boy Wonder who started his coaching career 6-0 with the Denver Broncos and proceeded to wreck the whole fucking franchise from that moment forward.  That was not 2 MENSA members meeting in Kansas City when McDaniels went up against Todd Haley and the Chiefs.  Haley passed on a FG to put his team up 2 possessions in the 3rd quarter up 10-3 with 4th down at the Denver 2.  The result?  A QB sack, turnover on downs.  But Josh and Air Orton couldn't take advantage because apparently the aircraft doesn't fly in cold weather.  I did enjoy the return of the familiar awful Chiefs run defense, which had been quite good this year.  They got sliced for 161 yards on the ground by the previously terrible Knowshon Moreno.  I'll look forward to an effort just like that by the KC defense if they make the playoffs.
• Rex Grossman's mama must have been a ho, because he has a half-brother he never knew about named Tarvaris.  Those throws he made were very Grossmanian, appearing to close his eyes and fling the rock into double coverage as far as he could off one foot.  But one of those throws somehow was "caught" by Sidney Rice, as the refs ruled that his simultaneous catch along with a Buffalo DB was a TD for Minnesota.  Rice made every catch that he could, making Tarvaris Jackson's emergency play appear much better than it was.  The usual Bills comeback to cover the number didn't happen because the Vikings defensive line, AWOL much of the year, showed up, and because Adrian Peterson is a beast.  Makes you wonder--did Rice and the D-line play hard for Tarvaris, to show that they had his back while he spelled the Little Wrangler?  Or is Leslie Frazier motivating them to give him some love for replacing Chilly?
• The cold weather didn't slow down the offense in the Saints-Bengals matchup, and the Bengals almost pulled out the upset.  Pat Sims, however, remembered just in time that he's a Bungle.  New Orleans had FG range to tie the game late in the 4th quarter, but on 4th and a yard, instead of sending out the special teams, they decided for the hell of it to try and draw a defender offsides with a hard count to get a cheap 1st down.  Sims was the defender who fell for it, and the Saints got the game-winning TD on the next play.  Hey, Cincy had to invent a new way to lose since they were running out of ideas.
• Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning need to skip practice this week and instead invite their receivers out to dinner every night to introduce them to each other.  San Diego and Indy are both having severe offensive struggles, and it's my observation that both QBs don't have any confidence whatsoever in their WRs and their ability to be in the right place at the right time.  The Chargers' pass catchers were constantly in the same general area, resulting in confusion and passes whizzing past their heads.  That didn't account for Oakland's 28 points, though--credit for that goes to the RBs and the offensive line.  The Raiders came into San Diego 5th in rush offense, and dammit if they didn't prove why they rank that high.
• The Colts, meanwhile, are under the microscope as people start to speculate whether Manning might be done or hiding an injury or something.  There's really no special explanation needed for Peyton's recent misery.  His rhythm is totally off kilter because his receivers aren't running smooth routes.  Almost all of his 11 picks over the last 3 games have been a result of Manning clearly waiting several beats longer than usual to see if his intended target knows where the hell he's running, and the staredown gives the DB or LB time to jump in front of the ball.  Indy had to make a last gasp drive just to tie the game at 35 and send it to OT, and if you saw that drive, you saw Manning hooking up over and over with trusted WR Reggie Wayne, and Dallas couldn't stop it.  Peyton didn't look like he needed to retire then.  Unfortunately, he stared down another receiver in OT and threw another pick, setting the Cowboys up for the winning FG.  I still have confidence that he will get on the same page with his guys and look much better, starting Thursday against Tennessee and its 26th-ranked pass defense.
• One team had a 10-point lead late in Tampa.  But the other team wound up winning.  One team leads the conference with a 10-2 record, the other hasn't beaten a team with a winning record this season.  The Falcons and the Buccaneers have truly earned their respective places in the NFC.
• Carolina led Seattle 14-3 at halftime.  Then John Fox gave a great motivational speech reminding the Panthers that they're in prime position for a #1 overall draft pick so long as they don't fuck it up.  They got outscored in the 2nd half 28-0.  Nice work, Fox.  Nice work.
• Arizona led St. Louis 6-0 in the 1st quarter, but they didn't need a speech to give that up.  They recognized their putrid potential all by themselves.  And there might be yet another unheard-of QB starting for the Cards next week.  If he winds up being the answer and going on a run to end the season, that would be just perfect.
• A typical defensive bloody battle between Pittsburgh and Baltimore is won by those familiar playmakers Troy Polamalu and Ben Roethlisberger.  Big Ben got whacked in the schnoz and played through the broken nose and heavily wrapped foot, throwing the game-winning TD.  They got that possession because DB Polamalu came flying in on a blitz and knocked the ball out of QB Joe Flacco's hands, causing a huge Ravens turnover.  It's a cliche, but it's true: Big players really do make big plays.
• And speaking of big players, what to say about Tom Brady?  He and the Pats were ready to play Monday night, and Mark Sanchez and the Jets were not ready for prime time.  Some of those Sanchez throws weren't anywhere near the intended receiver.  Can the California pretty boy get it done in the elements?  It wasn't snowing, but it was awfully cold and windy in Massachusetts.  The Jets weren't relying on Sanchez to cut through the wind and cold last year on their playoff run because their defense was dominant.  That's not the case this year.  New York's pass defense was #1 last year, giving up only 5.4 yards per attempt.  After the alley beating Brady just gave them, the Jets rank #14 in total yards and they're giving up 6.7 yards per attempt.  Ruh roh.
  

Week 13 Records--Dre 10-6, .625; Jay 5-11,  .313
YTD Records--Dre102-88-2, .537; Jay 97-93-2, .511

Week 13 ATS Recap: Debacled!

In a week of ugly games, some uglier picks came home. For one of us, that is....

• Eagles 34, Texans 24 - Both losers - Thursdays haven't been too kind lately. Here's another matchup where the points just felt too big, even though neither of us felt that the Texans could win. The Eagles converted a 3rd and 19 by about a foot late in the game to convert a drive into a TD rather than a FG attempt. Sometimes covering a number can boil down to one small moment.
• Jaguars 17, Titans 6 - Both winners - I never thought the Titans would qualify as a Fed Ex Mail-It-In Team, but they sure look like one now. I keep picking the Jaguars on the notion that they are the "First Place Jacksonville Jaguars," and even though it's completely sarcastic, they just keep rolling, while the Colts just keep flailing. The AFC South will produce only one playoff team this season, and the Jags are doing their best to make sure they're it.
• Giants 31, Redskins 7 - Dre winner, Jason loser - "Jason loser" is a big theme this week. I picked this on the notion that the Giants suck at home, I forgot that the Redskins just suck, period.
• Browns 13, Dolphins 10 - Both losers - In games where the Cleveland QBs don't utterly suck, they have a good chance to win. Cleveland, like St. Louis and Tampa Bay, may be a team worth watching next season to do some damage. Note that I didn't mention the Texans, I'll leave that chic preseason pick for the "experts."
• Bears 24, Lions 20 - Dre winner, Jason loser - The Lions played the way they have most of the season, with tremendous heart and a complete inability to finish off a foe. The Bears again draw a third string QB, but this time almost yakk up a loss and allow Dre a backdoor cover. Thanks, Bears!
• Chiefs 10, Broncos 6 - Both losers - The game that cost Josh McDaniels his job finally, and the Broncos didn't even play the Packers. Meanwhile, the Chiefs inched closer to a playoff berth as the Raiders handled the Chargers. I am not looking forward to a wild card matchup at KC.
• Packers 34, Niners 16 - Both winners - The Niners hung tough early, but when both teams suck at running the ball, it will fall to a QB duel. Aaron Rodgers vs. Troy Smith isn't fair. In other news, Rodgers may be my only hope at a fantasy championship this season. Keep up the good work, Aaron.
• Vikings 38, Bills 14 - Both losers - Brett Favre goes out early and Tavaris Jackson teams up with Adrian Peterson to stomp the Bills. Even after chanelling Jake Delhomme early, Jackson looked sharp instead of rusty and Leslie Frasier continues to do his best Jason Garrett impersonation.
• Saints 34, Bengals 30 - Jason winner, Dre loser - The only versus matchup I was able to pull out this week, and it happened as I thought it might. The Bengals looked awful early but decided to play one solid quarter and sneak in a nice little cover. Cincy even led late, but come on, they're the Bengals.
• Raiders 28, Chargers 13 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Did not see that coming. Not even Dre, who picked the Raiders to cover. We were sooooo certain the Chargers would either win out or lose maybe once down the stretch. Well, this better be the one if San Diego wants a shot at the postseason. For the sake of the viewing public, I plead that the Bolts overtake the Chiefs.
• Falcons 28, Buccaneers 24 - Both winners - Tampa leads late. Falcons hang around all game and strike late, hold off late charge by Tampa. Rinse and repeat.
• Seahawks 31, Panthers 14 - Both winners - I'm just glad Dre finally stopped picking the Panthers.
• Cowboys 38, Colts 35 (OT) - Dre winner, Jason loser - Wow, Dre nailed this one. Taking the Chokeboys on the road to beat his man crush Peyton at home must have really hurt, but it came through for him. The Colts are in dire straits here, and Peyton Manning better start selling some refrigerators and some color TV's or his ass will be at home in front of one for the playoffs.
• Rams 19, Cardinals 6 - Both losers - Ugh, I got fancy again. When you get fancy enough that you think you can pick a hook in a 3½ spread, you just know the team you thought would win would just go out and win by double digits. All the handwringing might ease up this week, as both the Rams and Seahawks sit at 6-6 with 4 games to go. As long as one of them can just split their remaining games, I think the whiners will fade away. But if they both finish 1-3 down the stretch and we're forced to watch a 7-9 team host a playoff game as a 12 point dog....I might not watch any sports TV THAT week.
• Steelers 13, Ravens 10 - Dre winner, Jason loser - I hope we get a rematch of this game come playoff time. This has got to be one of the best rivalries in the NFL at the moment. Unlike the faux rivalry we saw Monday night, this one did not disappoint. The Ravens had their chances, but the Steelers just had a little bit more in the tank late, and escaped Baltimore with a season split with the Ravens. Baltimore has it's work cut out if they want the division crown, but doubting the Ravens is never wise.
• Patriots 45, Jets 3 - Dre winner, Jason loser - In a playoff atmosphere, Tom Brady looked like a three time Super Bowl winner and Mark Sanchez looked like a lost puppy. The early season worries about Sanchez are all about to start coming back to life here again, as the Jets just don't look like a team that can win unless they get something, anything, from their "star" QB. This game was over early, and the Hoodie just kept piling on the Jets, and I can't blame him one bit. The Jets look-at-us attitude will end up costing them before it's over, as I don't think any team will really let up once they have them down.

Jason 5-11

Dre 10-6

Well, Dre got himself a little cushion back after my charge of the last month. Time to dust off and get back at it.

2010 Week #13

Here are the remaining picks for Week 13, a slate of dreadful games with the exception of the prime time affairs.

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

TENN(5-6)	3	Jack (6-5)			Jack	Jack
NYG (7-4)	7	Wash (5-6)			NY	Wash
MIA (6-5)	5	Cle (4-7)			Mia	Mia
Chi (8-3)	4½	DET (2-9)			Det	Chi
KC (7-4)	9	Den (3-8)			KC	KC
GB (7-4)	9	SF (4-7)			GB	GB
MIN (4-7)	5½	Buf (2-9)			Buf	Buf
NO (8-3)	6½	CIN (2-9)			NO	Cin
SD (6-5)	13	Oak (5-6)			Oak	SD
Atl (9-2)	2	TB (7-4)			Atl	Atl
SEA (5-6)	4½	Car (1-10)			Sea	Sea
IND (6-5)	5	Dal (3-8)			Dal	Ind
StL (5-6)	3½	ARIZ (3-8)			Ariz	Ariz
	Sun. Nite
BAL (8-3)	3	Pit (8-3)			Pit	Bal
	Mon. Nite
NE (9-2)	3½	NYJ (9-2)			NE	NY

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• Kerry Collins returns to action for the Titans, but that doesn't do it for me or Jason.  We'll go with the Jaguars to cover against Tennessee, although I can see the Titans winning the game by a point or two.
• Jason will go with Washington to cover a TD against the Giants because New York is less than impressive at home, going 2-4 ATS at the New Meadowlands thus far this season.  I'll go with the Giants because Washington sucks hard.
• I'd like to go back and look up all of the 5-point home favorites someday, because 5 is a strange number.  It's several leagues short of a TD favorite, yet it's equally far ahead of a typical FG favorite.  We'll reluctantly go with Miami to cover 5 over Cleveland.  We have to pick against the Browns so long as they insist on starting the Human Interception Machine at QB.
• I kinda wed myself to the notion that the Detroit Lions were going to avenge getting screwed out of a win in Chicago at the start of the season by taking down the Bears in the rematch.  I wasn't counting on both the starting QB (Matt Stafford) and the backup QB (Shaun Hill) being unavailable for Detroit at the time of said rematch.  But I'm going with Drew Stanton and the Lions anyway.  The Bears are too full of themselves, having racked up 4 wins in a row, and Stanton should be able to do what made Stafford and Hill successful--throw the fucking pill to Calvin Johnson.  Jason will take the Bears because they're playing too well not to whip Detroit's 3rd-string signal caller.
• I don't think Kansas City has much of a future in the playoffs if they make it that far, but their schedule sure is on their side.  Their last 3 weeks, they've drawn a dog-ass Cardinals team, followed by a dog-ass Seahawks squad, and now this week, a dog-ass Broncos team that waxed the Chiefs by 20 in Week 10.  We'll go with KC to avenge that one.
• And we'll go with the Packers to wipe out Coach Psycho and San Fran in the frozen tundra, despite such a win putting a serious crimp in Jason's evil plans to get SF into the playoffs.
• Once again, we have to take our unofficial mascot, the Buffalo Bills, to cover the number but not win.  The Little Wrangler might pull it out, so to speak, but he won't do it by a TD.  And remember kids, when someone mentions Denver sending Peyton Hillis to Cleveland for Brady Quinn as the worst trade of the season, don't let them forget that mere weeks after Minnesota sent a 3rd-round draft pick to New England for the services of Randy Moss, coach Brad Childress kicked him off the team, unbeknownst to the owner, who subsequently fired Brad Childress.  Not that Moss would be doing anything, but if Vikings owner Zygi Wilf had just canned Childress at the same time that he acquired Moss, he'd still have him.
• Here comes New Orleans, quietly sticking a game behind the red-hot Falcons in their division and garnering almost no attention, stunning since they are the defending champions.  I'll take them to beat the fuck out of the pathetic Bengals.  Jason cites what could be bitterly cold weather as a factor in keeping this game close.
• San Diego, meanwhile, is sneaking up on no one, yet I will take the Raiders to cover that large number because they're not starting Bruce Gradkowski at QB (he hurt himself, so Tom Cable can't go to him anymore, not until next year) and because I want to see Chargers QB Philip Rivers continue to put up MVP numbers with his targets all limping around.  Seriously, he doesn't have a fully healthy receiver on the field, including his gimpy star TE Antonio Gates.  Rivers couldn't get into the end zone last week at Indy, and he might struggle similarly this week.  Jason thinks it won't matter, and he may be right.
• Jay struggled with the Falcons-Bucs pick, but grudgingly went with the sizzling Dirty Birds.  I didn't struggle--I'm going with Atlanta until they give me a reason to go against them.
• It was a struggle to go with Seattle, especially giving up points.  But that's how horrible the Carolina Panthers are.
• I'm sorry, Peyton Manning, but I have forsaken you.  You have looked so lost out there the last few games that I will now pick against you two straight home games.  Yes, I am taking the Cowboys to come in to Lucas Oil and light your Colts up, particularly on the ground, where Felix Jones doesn't have to worry about Marion Barber vulturing goal-line carries and can run up and down the field.  Jason believes in you coming back this week, but not me.  I do love your remaining schedule though, so I will jump back on your bandwagon starting next week.  Hope you will have forgiven me by then.  Love, your biggest fan, Dre.
• Jason will try to be slick and take the dogs to cover in this Rams-Cards matchup but not win.  I'll go with Arizona FTW just because of the faux controversy with Derek Anderson that took up so much importance this week.  I think the Cardinals will come back after that embarrassing Monday night game and postgame and play much better, and of course, I relish any justification to pick against Sam Bradford.
• Now, the two main events of the week.  On Sunday night, I'll go with Pittsburgh to get a big road win at Baltimore.  Ben Rapelisberger has been limping around with a walking boot all week, but I think that's bad news for the Ravens because he won't be as tempted to run around in or out of the pocket.  He'll just launch more deep balls for Mike Wallace.  Plus, I think the Steelers can sustain a running game against the Ravens, who have been getting gashed this year.  Jason takes Baltimore, no joke, because he's digging the Ray Lewis Old Spice commercial, where he reaches into his chest, pulls out a stick of deodorant, pulls from the deodorant "a universe where heartbreak and sadness have been replaced by Old Spice," then eats the universe and grows six illuminated heads.  Hey, that's the reason he gave me.  And he'll win the pick with that logic, too.
• And on Monday night, he'll take the Jets to cover because they've hung around every game they've played pretty much all year, so why not this one too?  I've got a reason why:  This is the pinnacle of Screaming Tom Brady's campaign to position himself as the most intense leader of a team in the NFL this season.  I can't think of any other reason for Brady to be so loud and yappy lately except he's trying to win an MVP award and he doesn't think his play will win it by itself.  But his play, of course, has to match the screaming, so I'll pick him and the Patriots to score 31 or so on the overrated Jets secondary en route to a loud, vocal 8-point or so victory.