Super Bowl XLV What I Learned

Well, congratulations to Jason and the Packers for getting the job done.  We've been close enough in our picks many times before where one of us has to pick the Super Bowl correctly in order to win the season.  It's not easy.  The pressure of making the right pick can consume you in the 2 weeks of hype leading up to the Big Game.  It's why I started making my pick as soon as I find out the matchup.  I can waffle back and forth right up to kickoff if I allow myself.  But this year, it was on Jason to make the right choice, and he did.  I wonder how much he was influenced by being in the same house as a huge fan of the team he chose, not to mention living in the state of said team.  (And that housemate is talking some tall shit! lol)  But no matter, the game is over, the better team won.  That's not easy for me to admit because I grew quite fond of the Steelers this year.  I was impressed by how they rolled over their opposition while their QB sat out the first 4 games.  And when Big Ben returned, they kept marching over their opponents and showed me that they were focused and solid in every phase of the game.  I felt comfortable siding with them once the Patriots were knocked out of the playoffs, and in fact, I was very much looking forward to a NE-Pit battle for the AFC title.  I was committed to going with the AFC champ to win it all no matter who came out because the NFC as a whole was so unimpressive.  But Green Bay specifically taught me a lesson in overlooking a team and players that stepped up their game from earlier in the season.  No one could argue that the Pack had lost some serious manpower with all the injuries over the course of the season.  But by virtue of the Bears not knocking them out in the regular season finale, the Packers were able to take a deep breath and regroup, and they cut a swath through the playoffs that was as impressive as any run in recent memory.  So what do they do when confronted with injuries in the Super Bowl?  They shrug and keep scoring and hang on defensively long enough to eke out the win.  Guys no one ever heard of make plays and force fumbles and sneak underneath to grab INTs.  A team won the game together as a team.  Everyone had to make contributions, and they did.  They deserved every break that they made for themselves.  And Pittsburgh deserved to lose, because they found themselves ready to drive and score to take the lead a few times despite being down 3-0 in the turnover department, and they couldn't pull the trigger.  On this day, they weren't good enough.  Not against this Green Bay squad that was so used to holding their ground in the face of adversity.  Not against a QB used to shrugging off dropped passes by his WRs and putting ball after ball on the hands again.  The Pack virtually ignored the running game and attacked the Steelers deep, which is exactly what they should have done.  It's just about the only way to beat Pittsburgh, and only a few teams have the offensive firepower to do it, and Green Bay's one of them.  So once again, congrats to the Cheeseheads.  It was an entertaining Super Bowl (except for halftime), it was a nail-biter of a finish, but in the end, the team that executed better won the game hands down.  Now, get ready for billionaires to claim poverty at the height of their sport's popularity and lock out the jocks until they cave in to the owner's demands, as usual.

Super Bowl XLV ATS Recap: Victory!

Green Bay Packers 31, Pittsburgh Steelers 25
Jason wins, Dre loses pick. Jason wins season by 10 points!

Well, I needed that one, and the Pack didn't let me down. Before I break down the game, I'll break down how the four rounds of the playoffs played out for me and Dre, and how similar it was to the actual Super Bowl. I'll play the part of the Packers, while Dre can be the Steelers.

First Quarter: Wild Card Round - I jumped all over Dre, just as the Packers did the Steelers, with a 4-0 effort worth 8 points. Dre won one pick for 2 points. Things looked GREAT for me.

Second Quarter: Divisional Round - I extended my lead, but couldn't put Dre away, just to the sheer magnitude of points left on the table in the final two rounds. I went into the halfway point of the playoffs with a very large, but not safe, 9 point lead after Dre wen't o-for-the-round and I squeaked out one win.

Third Quarter: Conference Championships - Dre played for the tie, and I got cute. Much like the Super Bowl, Dre (Steelers) owned the 3rd quarter, but his decision to play for the tie ultimately cost him nothing, as all the pressure was on me in the 4th quarter to produce a win.

Fourth Quarter: Super Bowl XLV - Much like the game itself, I never trailed the entire postseason, but Dre made me sweat it out all the way to the end. What a way to end our first season blogging our picks. We'll move on to offseason mode now, with some football related news and other sports/off-topic discussions. But for now, I'll savor my season win, and I don't even get a championship belt. To quote El Gigante: "I wannnnnnnt theeeeee belllllltttttt...the beeeeellllltttttt!" There's like six people on earth that probably get that reference.

On to the game itself. I'll break down some keys.

• Aaron Rodgers - Football is a mans game, and on this night, Aaron Rodgers was a man. The group of people I was with, and various social networking friends, were debating through the finale of the game who the MVP should be. Few of them were mentioniong the clear-cut, obvious choice in Rodgers. On a night when his receivers were treating the ball like a live hand grenade, Rodgers never lost faith and kept throwing lazer beam after lazer beam. The pass he made late on a 3rd and 10 to Greg Jennings, inches past the arms of an outstreched defender and hitting Jennings in stride, was MVP-esque right there all in one play. Rodgers acted like he'd been there many times before, while his counterpart was harrassed and off target enough to throw a pick six and another pick that resulted in a TD drive. This was a scary good performance from "A-Rod," mostly due to the fact that he just made it look SO EASY.
• The Gameplan - Most notably, Mike McCarthy's gameplan. The Packers did what I hoped they would, and passed up on chances to "establish the run" and instead went 3 and 4 wide pretty much the whole game. James Starks had a couple decent runs, but the plan seemed to be to ride Rodgers to victory. I said if the Packers could get to 30 that they'd be Champs, and they did just that.
• Ghosts - That would be Troy Polamalu and James Harrison. The Pittsburgh D was noticably absent on this night, and Aaron Rodgers shredded the Steeler dime defense. Polamalu missed on several tackles, and was the biggest big name non-factor in a Super Bowl since Brian Urlacher against the Colts. Harrison did manage a sack, but otherwise the magic that the Steeler D needed never arrived, but someone elses magic did.....
• Clay Matthews - The Steelers, even though they completely dominated the third quarter, could still only muster a touchdown and a Kris Brown-esque FG shank to keep the Packers ahead by 4 going into the last quarter. The first play of the 4th was a Rashard Mendenhall run to the right that was looking like a negative play, until it turned into a REALLY negative play. Matthews came off the edge and blow'd Mendenhall up, thrusting a shoulder just under where the ball was being carried, and the ball popped up in the air, promping a "OOH BALL!" from me as a shout out to Tom Thayer of the Bears radio team. Desmond Bishop appeared pretty much out of nowhere for the scoop and the Packers, in one play, recaptured all the momentum they had lost in the third quarter. The next drive ended with the Packers third touchdown drive off a Pittsburgh turnover, once again proving all the B.S. about playoff experience means nothing if your team just plays better. Polamalu and Matthews were pretty much labelled the top two candidates for Defensive Player of the Year, and Polamalu won for his big play making ability. On this night, karma was a bitch.
• Resilience - Alot was made about the Packers ability to replace injured players, as they dealt with the loss of starter after starter all season, eventually putting 16 players on injured reserve. Maybe that was bit of foreshadowing, as the Pack lost both their offensive and defensive spiritual leaders. Charles Woodson and Donald Driver, in the biggest game of their lives, both had to watch the second half from the sideline. The Packers looked lost for a while, but when it came to crunch time, the replacements stepped up. Jared Bush came off the edge to harrass Roethlisberger, and Jordy Nelson and James Jones, when not providing crippling drops, stepped up big when all the chips were down. A lesser team would have gone in the tank (I'm looking at you Baltimore) when the Steeler rally began, but the Pack weathered the storm and prevailed.
• The "Talent" - Christina Aguilera botched the national anthem, right in the middle of my fiancee saying how funny it would be if someone did just that, so I missed it initially. Nice timing. Then, the halftime show. Oh, the horror. I have nothing against the Black Eye Peas, and was a bit refreshed that the NFL didn't trot out another geriatric "superstar" to play in front of paid fans that have no idea Who is on stage. But the Peas just outright sucked, whether the sound was off, or the auto tune was used a bit too much.....but the ultimate disaster was watching Fergie trying to channel her inner Axl Rose. That was painful. Anyone else here think the Steelers weren't able to adjust at halftime because Mike Tomlin is secretly Will.i.am?
• The Refs - I was VERY impressed with the officiating in this game. I thought there were two bad calls overall for the game, one going each way. Bonus points if you can name them. Other than that, the refs were a non factor, even deciding not to call what at first glance looked like interference on the Steelers last gasp play, but the replay showed that Tramon "The X-Factor" Williams did nothing more than undercut Mike Wallace and make a great play on the ball. This is still no consolation for Seahawk fans, is it?
• The Game Call - Joe Buck and Troy Aikman, you still suck.
• Brett Who? - Favre's name was noticably absent from the game call, and even the little Championship montages of both teams. You can't write Packer history without Favre, so I thought purposely leaving out that aspect of the story was a lost opportunity. Rodgers is partly where he is right now because of all the Favre drama, and even though we're all tired of him, 4 still needs to be in the narrative.

On to the offseason now, and all the labor strife. Thank god pitchers and catchers report in a couple weeks.

Super Duper Bowl XLV

And after three days of drinking was not enough...no wait, that's the start of the Sopranos theme song...after two weeks of waiting and anticipating, the Super Bowl is finally here.  I had to wait two weeks to find out if Jason was picking the team that I wanted.  As we know, I have to pick the opposite of him in order to go for the season tie thanks to my goofy playoff point system.  So here now, finally, are our picks for The Big Game.

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

GB (13-6)

3

Pit (14-4)

Pit

GB

Green Bay vs. Pittsburgh

It's a fantastic matchup for the Lombardi Trophy, and Jason will take the Cheeseheads to bring it home.  He liked the Packers from the moment the matchup was made.  He said that he liked the winner of the Packers-Falcons playoff game to win it all, unless New England had continued to run roughshod through the league.  Jason admits that the Steelers are a scary team, but he feels that Green Bay will follow the Patriots Plan of how to play the Steelers and just spread the field and fling the rock all over the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex.  Pittsburgh is a more balanced team on offense, but Jason thinks the Pack will overwhelm the D so bad that it won't matter.  He sees it a 30-20 type of game, which is a rather big spread to predict.  But the Pack only have to cover 4 points to give Jason the win.  I have to say that I'm shocked that Pittsburgh is such an underdog.  I never would have guessed the Steelers, who weathered the storm of missing their rapist QB for the 1st 4 games of the season en route to an impressive 12-4 record and beat 2 solid teams in the playoffs, to be a FG dog against the NFC 6th seed.  With that said, I waffled as to who I liked for the game for the 1st few days after the conference title games.  I can't remember being so indecisive about my Super Bowl pick.  I usually make my selection as soon as the matchup is determined.  But the one thing that pushed me towards the Steelers isn't football related.  It's the flap over the Packers originally leaving out their IR players when they took the Super Bowl team picture, then relenting after some back-and-forth between their players.  Before that flap was settled, QB Aaron Rodgers had accused some players of being less than perfect teammates due to not staying in Green Bay to rehab over the offseason, and the issue seemed from the outside to be way bigger than it needed to be.  I basically decided at that point that Pittsburgh had to be my pick because I couldn't imagine a World champion behaving the way the Packers were behaving the week before the damn Super Bowl.  The Steelers have the experience, they have Troy Polamalu healthy, they have the better balance on offense, as Jason cited earlier, and I think they have the edge.  I also think that Packers coach Mike McCarthy may try to be too cute in his 1st Super Bowl and have the offense not doing what they do best.  Green Bay needs to go 5-wide on damn near every play in order to keep the Steelers dime defense on the field, and I fear that they won't do that.  They will try to establish a running game and place themselves in bad field position and 3rd-and-longs, allowing Pittsburgh to rush Rodgers and create pressure.  It's the Steelers that will have successful trick plays up their sleeves, as we know from watching them execute in past Super Bowls.  I just think that this game will belong to the clear-thinking, poised team that's used to such a big spotlight, and that's the Pittsburgh Steelers.  My X-factor:  Steelers LB James Harrison.  He's been one of the more quoted players the last couple of weeks as he alternates between passive-aggressive and angry when talking about the amount of cash he's paid in fines this year.  But he continues to play his style of football, which could be really bad news for Rodgers if he gets to the QB.  Ask the Arizona Cardinals--Harrison knows how to make big plays on the big stage.

My Pick:  Pittsburgh 29-22

Conference Championships ATS Recap: Justice

Leave it to me to spit in the face of the odds and correctly predict the Super Bowl XLV matchup, yet manage to lose both picks, one by a measley point. Dre can cheer himself on this Sunday, as playing for the season tie is his loftly dream. Somewhere, Herm Edwards has a speech in waiting for Dre.

NFC Championship

Green Bay Packers (-3½) @ Chicago Bears

Packers Win 21-14

Both picks: losers

How fitting that the Chicago Bears, who lucked their way through horrible officiating (silly rules) and third string quarterbacks, would finish their season with their own third stringer under center. Fans in Chicago, the City of Quarterback Controversies, have been clamoring for their glimpses of Caleb Hanie taking meaningful snaps for the beloved. Well, they got their wish! Hanie managed to look serviceable on a couple drives, not-so-good on the others. Fans who want to run Jay Cutler out of town are somehow overlooking that Hanie managed to NOT SEE B.J. Raji drop back into coverage. Have you seen Raji? He's enormous. Hanie DIDN'T SEE HIM!

The Packers came out looking every bit as unstoppable as they did in Atlanta, scoring early and often, until Donald Driver kicked a ball to Lance Briggs on a fluky play the likes of what the Bears thrive on. Brian Urlacher stepped in front of a harrassed Aaron Rodgers pass and looked like he was taking a pick 100 yards to the house, until he somehow managed to get FINGER tackled by Rodgers. Did this play remind anyone of the game saving tackle Ben Roethlisberger made after the Bettis goal-line fumble against the Colts several years back? It was the first thought I had, and was the moment that I knew that the Packers charmed life was trumping the Bears charmed life.

As for the Cutler hate: shut up douchebags! Cutler, the most sacked quarterback in the league, the guy who would STILL throw at DeAngelo Hall, DID NOT fake his way out of the biggest game of his careeer. Cutler is a victim here of his own indifference. He's not a media savvy guy, and probably not the best friend/teammate in the world either, but a guy who gets sacked NINE times in one half is not a pussy. End of story.

My NFC Championship MVP: Sam Shields

AFC Championship

N.Y. Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)

Steelers Win 21-16

Dre wins pick, Jason loses

Ah, I managed to out-cute myself again here. Packers/Steelers for the Super Bowl I say? Yeah, but I'll take the Bears and Jets to cover. The pressure is on me now to come up with a winning Super Bowl pick, I guess.

The Steelers/Jets affair looked like the prior weeks Ravens/Steelers tilt. Big lead early? Check. Second half collapse? Check. Team you expect to crumble under the pressure does so right on cue? Check. Both conference champs seemes to put it on cruise control in both games, allowing second (or third) rate quarterbacks to mount comeback efforts, only to watch them fall short.

I don't have as much to go over on this game, other than to thank Rex Ryan for eschewing an attempt at a 2-point conversion that could have made this game a push, and given me the season victory. Thanks for booting that one, Rexy!

My AFC Championship MVP: Rashard Mendenhall

Playoff Recap:

Dre is 5 points behind Jason for the season and playoffs.

The Super Bowl is worth 5 points.

Do the math.