Scott Norwood

Scott Norwood
Wide Right started it all.

Thursday, September 30, 2010

Down the Dark Path: Sports Video Games

I grew up in the age of Atari and Nintendo (back when the NES Classic Console was just called Nintendo), so video gaming has been a large part of my life. Games serve as a substitute for real ability, so when I take the Cubs to the World Series or the Texans to multiple Super Bowls (with Marshall Faulk as my running back), there is a sense of pride and accomplishment. Dre takes that to the Nth degree, playing games on the real MLB, NFL, and NBA schedules. We even have home-made heroes in the players that the game literally makes up out of thin air.

But in the past few years, with ultra-realism becoming the standard of sports gaming franchises, something seems to missing. The players in the sandbox of the sports league they occupy inhabit a utopian society with no ills, hardships, or stupidity. Here's a few things that can be added to these games to make them the ultimate sports gaming experience:
  • Crime & Punishment - Key Attribute: Character - You hear about it every year, the can't miss prospect with the checkered past. He slips down a draft board even though his skill set is unmatched at his position. Let's introduce the Character attribute. Low character makes it more likely that your player will be involved in some sort of conduct detrimental to the league he's in. The randomness of games allows for a multitude of crazy scenarios. But imagine your star quarterback is accused of rape in the offseason, or your star safety solicits a prostitute the night before Super Bowl....oh crap, those things really happened. Let's say your player is involved in high stakes moose fighting, or runs down hookers in his H3, or shoots his limo driver...crap that last one happened too. See, the realism and the randomness of the act makes the stakes of your fictional franchise that much higher. Better get all the production out of these digital avatars while you can, cuz one of them might snap!
  • The Juice - Key Attribute: Integrity - Forget traning camp or batting practice to bolster your stats, let your player go after the high risk/high reward thrill of being juiced. Sure there is a risk of being caught, but imagine taking a lowly .240 hitting third baseman who never hit more than 16 homers for your franchise and turning him into a 50+ homer superstar (while still maintaining the .240 average). Every day, you run the risk of being caught. Maybe your star player will get called before congress, which would be a separate mini-game. Your choices could be: 1) Lie outright 2) Bill Clinton fingerwag denial 3) Forget how to speak English 4) Not talk about the past 5) Read a prepared statement 6) Admit that you cheated, but only to rebound from injury 7) Claim you thought it was Flaxseed oil......the possibilities are endless.
  • Ridiculous Injuries - Key Attribute: Clumsiness - Want your best pitcher to miss games because he got carpal tunnel from emailing too much, or maybe your punter misses time because he chopped into his leg with an axe in the locker room, or your star QB gets into a freak motorcycle accident....sure you don't WANT that happen. But imagine right before the game you get this message : YOUR STARTING RB WAS GORED RUNNING WITH THE BULLS THIS OFFSEASON, HE WILL MISS 8-12 WEEKS RECOVERING. You'd be all like WTF!! but then you'd be like "wow, this game is pretty cool."
  • Death - Key Attribute: There is no stat for when the reaper comes calling - We see it every season or so, a player in some sports league just ups and dies. It happens. They eat bullets, get lost at sea, fly their planes into buildings, get killed by drunks. It's a sad reminder that even jacked and juiced up millionaires are mortal. Let their digital representatives suffer the same fate. The death could either inspire the team, or destroy it. Imagine all your NFL guys wearing the decal of the dead player, so for the whole season you are reminded of your fictional loss. Would you play harder for the fallen teammate? You bet your ass you would.
  • Sex - Key Attribute: Integrity (again) and Marital Status - Maybe the juice isn't your weakness, maybe it's the ladies. Maybe your players are Derek Jeter, unmarried and free to woo the ladies. Maybe they are Tiger Woods.....
  • Locker Room Cancers - Key Attribute: Douchebaggery - What better way to splinter your franchise than to have a seemingly productive player become a cancer on the team. Maybe your star pitcher just turns into a diva, or your star wideout, or your center. Their actions destroy the valuable Chemistry attribute and suddenly team performance is affected. What to do with the cancer? Placate them or bench them, maybe even cut them. Watch the teams chemistry ebb and flow over a long season due to your handling of the locker room.
There's just some suggestions. Sure, no sports union would ever allow the seedier side of life to enter the digital realm, but it sure would be fun.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

The Poll Police: Top 5 Teams So Far

Three weeks in the bag and a lot lessons learned. Here's the five best teams through five weeks, in my opinion, and in much less detail...

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0) - Quick, name me another NFL team that could be undefeated with its second string quarterback? OK, how about its third string QB? Better yet, how bout its 4th string QB? The Steelers start, for me, demonstrates the overratedness (new word!) of Ben Rapelisberger, and how this is a team that wins with defense first and offense second.

2. Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) - Who is the Eagles MVP so far this season? Mike Vick you say? Nope. It's Clay Matthews! If he hadn't given Kevin Kolb the face first slip-n-slide treatment, then the resurgence of the once and now again dynamic Vick could not have happened. This is a different team with Vick at the helm, and they appear ready to run this out until Vick either implodes, or gets hurt behind a hideous offensive line. Does anyone see the corrolation between McNabb's decline and his morphing into more of a pocket passer? Maybe the Eagles will want to draft some O-lineman next year.

3. Indianapolis Colts (2-1) - Yeah, the Texans snuck up on them in week 1 and the Broncos self destructed at home in week 3. But this is a regular season ranking, and the Colts are usually the cream of the crop in regular season play. Peyton Manning is just getting started.

4. Atlanta Falcons (2-1) - Since an opening loss on the road at Pittsburgh, Atlanta has played inspired football. Their defense isn't giving up many points (2nd in the NFC), and Matt Ryan looks to have shaken out of last seasons sophomore slump. Tony Gonzalez looks like he could play until he's 50, and Michael Turner is running with new purpose. This is a group buying into a swarmimg, team style defensive scheme, as there really isn't a standout at any position, yet they are holding teams to less than 16 points a game.

5. Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) - I debated long over which team to give the last spot. There are many quality teams out there right now, but the Chiefs have to be the surprise of the NFL season so far. This is the second best scoring defense in the league (only 5 more points allowed than the Steelers) and the Chiefs look to have regained that Arrowhead home field advantage. They get to remain undefeated at least one more week facing a bye (even though the Lions are usually three point dogs in their bye week) and staring a date at the Colts in week 5. We'll see how real the Chefs are then. Since this is a week 3 poll, enjoy the spot for now KC.

On the outside looking in:

Packers - Clean up the act or prepare for another wild-card round exit.
Bears - The best undefeated 2-1 team in history.
Ravens - Most maddening team in the league.
Texans - Had a chance to silence all doubters, instead threw gasoline on the critics fire.
Jets - Starting to live up to their own hype. Sadly, they talk so much they can never reach that bar.

2010 Week 3: What I Learned

  • Listen to Jason when he suggests the day before the games that we flip all of our picks over and just take the opposite of what we like.  And don't ever take that many fucking favorites in the parity-laden NFL again.
  • Coach Psycho is in trouble.  Mike Singletary can't seem to get his 49ers going in the right direction no matter how bug-eyed and crazy he gets.  He rushes to the defense of his horrible offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye after last week's reports of plays not being called in a timely fashion and mass confusion in the offensive huddle.  He gets the TV reporter who dared question his coordinator's effectiveness fired, er, "reassigned," and the next week, he fires the same coordinator.  Wow.  Singletary appears from the outside to be totally in over his head trying to coach an NFL team purely on emotion and fire and passion.  If San Francisco fails to make the playoffs, ol' Bug Eyes will be out, I believe.
  • Cincinnati will win games this season despite QB Carson Palmer, not because of him.  His arm seems to be gone.  His accuracy is nonexistent.  His beard is weird, and his stache is trash.  He needs either retirement or Just For Men hair gel, I'm not sure which.
  • The major upset of the week wasn't a game result, it was a white RB stepping all over the Baltimore Ravens defense.  Peyton Hillis was the sole reason the Browns stayed close enough to cover in Baltimore, rendering Anquan Boldin's breakout performance (3 TD) great for the purposes of a team win, but useless for those who bet the Ravens to win by two TDs.
  • Brett Favre continues to look off kilter for the Vikings, but they won and covered using a very simple formula:  Dominate by running with Adrian Peterson, then play-action and hit wide open receivers for big plays.  It would seem that the teams that can handle Peterson can handle the Vikings, until Captain Wrangler works out the kinks and is able to win games through the air again.
  • Congrats to the New York Giants, who may have played the most undisciplined team game I've ever seen.  You got Eli Manning throwing a desperation ball into the end zone with his left hand, resulting in an interception.  You got 5 personal fouls on the Giants during their game with the Titans.  You got veterans David Diehl and Kareem McKenzie committing such blatant personal fouls that coach Tom Coughlin said the hell with it and pulled them out of the game.  You got the Giants staying right there within a score of the Titans due to outgaining them in yardage by 200 yards!  But they let it slip away in the end, and now Coughlin may have his seat start to get warm on him again after surviving a few years ago when New York won the Super Bowl and earned him a new contract.  This time, he won't be so lucky.
  • Gotta love old QBs who throw TD passes to guys who are double covered, including one that went right off the fingertips of a defender and into the receiver's hands.  Pittsburgh's Charlie Batch had one more start to make in his NFL career, and he made it count.  WRs covered downfield?  He didn't give a fuck.  And as a result, Mike Wallace has two more TD catches then he deserves.
  • The Falcons-Saints game was especially painful to lose because it played out with no surprises--two offenses making their way up and down the field, and the Saints wound up with the game in their hands.  They should have taken a victory in overtime and given Jason and me a push, but Saints kicker Garrett Hartley hooked a 29-yard FG wide left, and Atlanta went on to victory.  Hope your resume is up to date, Mr. Hartley.  And by the way, for those who hate the timeout that freezes the kicker right before the kick, it backfired in this one.  Falcons K Matt Bryant had his 46-yard FG initially blocked, but because Saints coach Sean Payton got the timeout in right before the kick, Bryant got another shot, and he nailed it for the win.  I really don't know why some people scream so loud for the rule to be changed so that you can't call a FG freezeout TO, but they surely can't say it's because it always gives an unfair advantage to the team calling it.  In this case, it may have cost that team a victory.
  • New England scored 38 freaking points and couldn't cover over Buffalo.  Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick showed some arm, RB C.J. Spiller showed some speed, and the Pats showed why their defense will cost them dearly when it's crunch time.
  • Welcome the Dallas Cowboys to the 2010 season, which apparently started while they were still on summer vacation.  They showed what happens when DeMarcus Ware and the Dallas D come to play, along with forgotten WR Roy Williams and the running game, which went over 100 yards as a team.  The question is, how many games will all of those phases shine for the Cowboys at the same time?
  • You know, when I gather all of the books chronicling our picks over the years, I'll have to investigate the old Philadelphia Eagles and how I did picking their games.  My memory tells me that I was never any good picking their game because Donovan McNabb was so maddeningly inconsistent.  And there he was Sunday in a Redskins jersey finding a way to lose to a rookie QB and the woeful St. Louis Rams a week after holding a 17-point lead against the vastly superior Houston Texans.  Washington had the Rams down in this game in the 4th quarter and couldn't finish either.  And now they go to Philly next week for the return of McNabb to the City of Brotherly Love.  The Eagles are undefeated with Michael Vick as starter, aren't they?  Should be a squoosh for Vick and the Birds, right?  Right??
  • Speaking of which, this just in:  Michael Vick likes freedom and enjoys scoring touchdowns for an NFL team and not the Folsom City Prison Shankmasters.
  • Man, Philip Rivers tried like hell to beat the Seattle Seahawks by himself, throwing for 455 yards while still missing his best receiver, holdout Vincent Jackson.  But he can't overcome something that's going to haunt the San Diego Chargers all year--their special teams.  A punt return for a TD against the Chefs in the Monday night opener, and a 7-point loss.  Two kickoff TDs for Leon Washington Sunday against Seattle, and a 7-point loss.  They got more issues than Pastor Eddie Long.  They may want to bring Jackson back ASAP, not to catch balls, but to be an outside gunner on punts.
  • Another lost pick that hurts was the Broncos actually outgaining the vaunted Colts offense and not only losing the game but not covering the spread due to some nauseating play near the goal line.  A bad Kyle Orton INT reminiscent of the Eli Manning left-arm toss and a goal-line stand where new Denver RB Laurence Maroney was stopped from scoring on 4th down by a fingernail helped torpedo the Broncos' chances.  For those counting, that was 5 trips to the red zone for Denver and zero TDs.
  • Nobody deserved to win the Raiders-Cardinals game, so it was fitting that the Raiders got close enough for K Sebastian Janikowski to hit a chip-shot game-winning FG and then watched him choke like a John Holmes co-star.  We should have picked the Raiders to cover 4 1/2 points because neither team is that much better or worse than the other.
  • Jets QB Mark Sanchez still has a rag arm, but maybe the team has some heart after all.  Marky Mark flipped some more garbage throws up in the air, and the Miami Dolphins tripped all over themselves trying to defend them.  WR Braylon Edwards put down the Patron long enough to score a TD on a 12-yard catch that he turned and took 67 yards because his defender fell flat on his ass.  Sanchez "gunned" one of his TDs to TE Dustin Keller, but if the covering linebacker had been looking for the ball, he would have reached up and easily taken it for himself, or at least knocked it down.  And it looks like RB LaDainian Tomlinson is saving New York's bacon for the time being, because they couldn't have extended their lead and held on to survive Sunday night without his inspired running.  Shonn Greene was supposed to be the lead back for New York after they jettisoned Thomas Jones in the offseason, but he's been atrocious.  The Jets may have better odds for success than many of us thought they would, if the old LT can keep this up.
  • Lots of Bears love going around for their 3-0 start.  Let's clear a couple of things up about that lucky win Monday over Green Bay: 1, they were yet another winner that was outgained in yardage during the game, and 2, his one TD pass to Greg Olson was thrown between about 47 defenders, which is NOT a good thing.  And the Bears should be very worried about Cutler making it through the whole season, as he got destroyed on a couple of hits standing in the pocket.  That offensive line still can't block for shit.  The Pack should be worried as well.  They didn't impress in their first 2 wins of the season, and now lose a big game they should have won.  Looks like they will have to wait to print up those "Division champs" t-shirts until they can get back on track.

Monday, September 27, 2010

Sunday ATS Recap: Now With More Monday

This was the week we expected week 2 to be. Wow, was it ugly. We only differed on two games and agreed on a ton of big favorites. I had suggested taking all the picks and just flipping them. That would have been a GREAT idea.

On to the recap, in much less detail:

  • Chiefs 31, Niners 10 - Jason winner, Dre loser. The theme of the week was "Desperation." Heck, the NFL could have branded their own fragrance line of the same name with three preseason darlings all facing 0-3 starts. I had figured the Niners shot their wad against the Saints at home, and still came up short. A tough road game at Kansas City felt like more than the Niners could handle. Thankfully, Andre disagreed.
  • Bengals 20, Panthers 7 - Both winners. Cincy played a pretty awful game, but luck served them up Jimmy Clausen. Carson Palmer looks lost so far this year, but Cedric "The Phoenix" Benson keeps rising from the ashes.
  • Ravens 24, Browns 17 - Both losers. What a tough pick to even make. The Ravens have proven they can't cover a big number, while the Browns have failed to even look like a pro team. Ray of light for the Browns (or not): they've had a lead in the 4th quarter of all three games this season. A lead they've blown, anyway.
  • Vikings 24, Lions 10 - Both losers. Ah, Detroit. Most of the game was closer than the score indicated as the Lions continue to play with tremendous heart. Just when things were going their way early, the Lions muffed a punt deep in their own territory and Brett Fav-ray found a WIIIDE open Percy Harvin in the endzone on the next play. It was all downhill after that for Detroit. Sorry Lion-o's, heart doesn't cover spreads.
  • Titans 29, Giants 10 - Both losers. If you read the box score for the game and ignore all the columns except points, you'd have thought the Giants won. Manning (the other one) moved the ball at will up and down the field againt Tennessee, but failed to convert long drives into points. On the other side, it's amazing how all the Vince Young being benched drama goes away when all he has to do is turn around and hand it to 28 (the other one).
  • Steelers 38, Bucs 13 - Both winners. At this point, I think I could play quarterback for the Steelers. If Charlie Batch goes down, look for Bubby Brister to get the call this week against Baltimore and throw 4 TD's. I was actually hoping for a more game effort from Tampa, but this game sealed it for me: Pittsburgh is the best team in the NFL right now.
  • Falcons 27, Saints 24 (OT baby) - Both losers. Easily the best game of the week. I still needed to see more from Atlanta after their dismantling of the Cards, and they went on the road to face the NFL champs and took it to 'em. This game cements even more my comments about the Steelers being the NFL's best team. Since a tough road loss, Atlanta has played great ball, while the Saints still haven't shown much this year.
  • Patriots 38, Bills 30 - Both losers. The Pats are a tough team to read. This game had 52-10 written all over, but the Pats defense seems like it will be their undoing this year. Alert: there was a C.J. Spiller sighting in this game!
  • Cowboys 27, Texans 13 - Both losers. "Desperation: Part III." Houston had a chance to put their foot on the Cowboys throats this week, but there is sometimes no counter to a team playing for its life in week 3. Dallas finally looked like the team they were supposed to be all season long. What better way to stop a rally, for a team that looks like it could be getting back on track, than the bye week.
  • Rams 30, Redskins 16 - Both losers. WTF!
  • Eagles 28, Jaguars 3 - Both winners. Been a while since a winning pick. Micheal Vick looks to have learned some new moves. My guess: he learned them in the prison shower evading gang rape. Using these new found quarterback skills, Vick looks mature, confident in his throws, and not going through a progression of first read then run like hell. The Eagles could be a very dangerous team this year, until Vick gets hurt.
  • Seahawks 27, Chargers 20 - Jason winner, Dre loser. San Diego played great, except for that little kicking-to-Leon Washington-thing. Other than that, bang up job Bolts!
  • Colts 27, Broncos 13 - Both losers. Pretty much the result one would expect from an aerial duel between a Hall of Famer and Kyle Orton. How do you throw for 476 yards and ONE touchdown. That's what I call some empty stats Orton.
  • Cardinals 24, Raiders 23 - Both losers. I'm just staring at the blinking cursor on the monitor. Hey, how bout that Falcons-Saints game? THAT was some good football.
  • Jets 31, Dolphins 24 - Both losers. A surprisingly offensive game, and I don't mean the malodorous "offensive." Both teams moved the ball against allegedly stingy defenses in what was easily the second best game of the week. The Jets are slowly turning my opinion of them around. Key word there is "slowly," my opinion of them is still that they are overrated, moving up towards "average."
  • Bears 20, Packers 17 - Both losers. Of course. What a fitting end to a week of suck. The Packers played one of the sloppiest games I've seen out of a team in a long time. Here is another example of a team being touted as the cream of the crop before a down was played this season. So far the Pack have barely beaten Philly, cruised past Buffalo, and now lost a tough divisional matchup to their arch rival. The Bears now stand alone in first place in the North, and are the only undefeated team in the NFC. We all laughed that the Calvin Johnson TD that wasn't wouldn't matter because the Bears wont amount to anything this season.........(insert dramatic music cue and lightning flashes). Now the Packers get to chew on this one until 2011. Yeah, they don't play the Bears again until January 2.
So, week 3 of picking and recapping is over. We should have called it Weak 3.

Jason 5-11
Dre 3-13

Nothing to see here. Move along.

Sunday, September 26, 2010

2010 Week #3

Here are the very similar picks for Week 3.
Fav Spread Dog

Dre Jay

SF (0-2) 3    KC (2-0)

SF KC
Cin (1-1) 3    CAR (0-2)

Cin Cin
BAL (1-1) 10 1/2 Cle (0-2)

Bal Bal
MIN (0-2) 11 1/2 Det (0-2)

Det Det
NYG (1-1) 3    Tenn (1-1)

NY NY
Pit (2-0) 2 1/2 TB (2-0)

Pit Pit
NO (2-0) 3    Atl (1-1)

NO NO
NE (1-1) 14 1/2 Buf (0-2)

NE NE
HOU (2-0) 2 1/2 Dal (0-2)

Hou Hou
Wash(1-1) 4    STL (0-2)

Wash Wash
Phi (2-0) 2 1/2 JACK (1-1)

Phi Phi
SD (1-1) 4 1/2 SEA (1-1)

SD Sea
Ind (1-1) 5 1/2 DEN (1-1)

Den Den
ARIZ(1-1) 4 1/2 Oak (1-1)

Ariz Ariz


Sun. Nite



MIA (2-0) 1    NYJ (1-1)

Mia Mia


Mon. Nite



GB (2-0) 3    CHI (2-0)

GB GB


Some of our thoughts and observations included:

  • We absolutely cannot remember having this many common picks in a single week.  We only differ on two picks!  And not only that, but we're incredibly heavy on chalk.  Of our 14 common picks, only two are underdogs.  So we basically think that we know the NFL and that almost all of the Vegas favorites will shine through.  Lord, we better hope so.
  • Jason will saddle up with Matt Cassel and the Kansas City Chiefs over Coach Psycho and the 49ers.  He likes the Chiefs' D to show against the weak San Fran offense at home.  I'll lean on Frank Gore to run SF to victory at Arrowhead Stadium.
  • Neither of us are big believers in the Jimmy Clausen Experience, so we'll take the Bengals over the Panthers even though Carolina is at home.  That's a bad spot to make your first NFL start, against a defense that ranked 6th against the pass in the league last year.
  • We know Jason's 3-word motto about Cleveland ("Fuck the Browns"), so it will apply here too, against an angry Ravens team bitter about bad ref calls that cost them dearly against the Bengals last week.  We're trusting that Joe Flacco, Ray Rice and the rest of the Baltimore offense can get it in gear well enough to score more than 10 points, which is necessary to cover the 10 1/2 point spread.
  • Ah, the Vikings.  The Brett Favre Rule has done me well these first two weeks.  And Jason couldn't resist joining me this time in taking the points against the old man.  Eleven and a half is a lot of points, and the Lions have been competitive in each of their first two contests.
  • Even though Giants minus 3 against the Titans smells like a push, we'll take the Giants to cover anyway.  Tennessee is a hot mess right now.  It's hard to imagine Vince Young being relaxed enough to play an effective QB versus the Giants defense knowing that his coach is itching to yank him out of the game if he doesn't perform flawlessly.  And I like Eli Manning for a big game coming off of a butt whooping by big brother Peyton.
  • We are once again spitting in the wind and going against Jason's man crush Josh Freeman and the Buccaneers.  I was all ready to jump on the bandwagon, until I saw the opponent:  The Pittsburgh Steelers look to have the best defense in football.  They may be playing at an elite level because they have to thanks to their starting QB being MIA for the first 4 games of the season.  But whatever the reason, they have supported Dennis Dixon in two wins, and now will try to carry Charlie Batch to victory.  We say they get it done.
  • It's hard to go against the Falcons after the pain they inflicted on Arizona last week, but we're believers in the Saints.  Two wins, and their best football still to come.  Should be a high-scoring shootout, and how can you go against Drew Brees in a high-scoring shootout?
  • Trent Edwards out, Ryan Fitzpatrick in at QB for the Buffalo Bills.  We don't think it matters at all.  We talked a lot about the 59-0 pasting New England put on Tennessee last year, which shows what kind of game we think this will be.
  • We'll go with the Texans over the Cowboys even though Dallas has "desperation" on its side as it tries to avoid being an 0-3 team.  It's really difficult to take the Boys until they show some cohesiveness in their offense.  Tony Romo isn't nearly good enough to take the team on his back and carry them without a running game.  Houston will be rocking for this one, and the playoff atmosphere can't work for the Boys because they've won one playoff game since the Clinton administration, and that was last year.  I'm usually the one who crushes a team's bandwagon when I jump on it, and I'm all in on the Texans, so if they get pounded in the ass by Dallas, I'll have to claim responsibility for that.
  • The Redskins look good on offense even though their best receiver may be the H-back Chris Cooley.  Donovan McNabb is used to gaining yards through the air with crappy WRs, so this isn't an adjustment for him.
  • McNabb's old team the Eagles can't get their QBs straightened out.  Coach Andy Reid insisted after last Sunday's win over the Lions that Kevin Kolb would take back his starting gig for the next game even though Michael Vick had played stellar football since replacing Kolb during the first game of the season.  Then a couple of days later with no explanation, Reid announced that Vick would start the next game.  Theories abound as to why Reid made such an abrupt about-face.  But it kinda doesn't matter.  Vick's a go, Kolb isn't, and that's the way it is until Vick's first loss or injury.  A lot of folks seem to have a problem with that.  I don't.
  • In our second disagreement of the week, Jason will take Pete Carroll and the Seahawks to pull off another home upset, while I will go with the Chargers after witnessing last week against the Jags what happens when QB Philip Rivers is backed into a corner.
  • We will take Denver and a somewhat large amount of points over the Colts, even after the offense clicked on all cylinders for Indy last week.  Denver is a tough venue for visitors, and QB Kyle Orton is hooking up with more people than Lindsay Lohan in jail.  He's spraying to all receivers in a wide open offense and looking like he may justify the money the Broncos gave him.  I'm going a step further and taking the Broncos to win.  I think the passing games will play evenly, leaving the Denver running game with Laurence Maroney and Correll Buckhalter to control the clock and keep Peyton Manning off the field.
  • We can't get on the Bruce Gradkowski game plan.  Arizona is no great team, but at least they're not the Raiders.  And I'm becoming a fan of Cardinals RB Tim Hightower.  He may only have one big play per game, but that's one more than fellow RB Beanie Wells.
  • We like the Dolphins to continue their excellent defensive play against that bewildering Jets offense, which posted way more points and yards last week than anyone thought possible.  A Sunday night affair in Miami, where they will be hyped for a rare prime time appearance against a hated rival?  And the Jets won't play their drunk, homeless-looking WR as much as they normally would?  Seems like bad news for Rex Ryan and the J-E-T-S.
  • Jason has a theory on the Packers-Bears Monday night matchup:  He believes that the Packers would be ripe for the picking by the Bears if Chicago didn't have a 2-0 start to the season.  He thinks that Green Bay will be alert and ready for action because they can't sleep on the Bears, considering how Chicago played last week at Dallas.  I have to agree because I was going to pick the Bears to win until I realized that Green Bay would fall out of first place in the division if they lost.  I also trust the Pack's secondary to make a play in a shootout before the Bears can make a big defensive play.  It will be an electric atmosphere and fun to watch no matter who wins.

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

2010 Week 2: What I Learned

  • Quit making fun of Jason's fantasy draft picks because they always have career games against me.
  • Perhaps the Bengals' D should get more respect.  One of their strengths coming into the season was the talented secondary, and 4 interceptions of Ravens QB Joe Flacco later, Cincy is able to overcome zero touchdowns to beat Baltimore.  Hold off on the Chad Johnson-Terrell Owens tweets about the ineffectiveness of Carson Palmer.  Everything is sunshine and balloons after a win.
  • Who's ready to buy the 2010 Vikings season highlights DVD?  I've already got the title:  "Missed Connections."  QB Brett Favre has no chemistry with seemingly any of his receivers save for TE Visanthe Shiancoe.  Every bomb he throws is incomplete, every short throw seems to be in danger of being intercepted, and the Vikings couldn't overcome RB Adrian Peterson trying to carry the team on his back.  In short, Minnesota looks fucked with a capital dick.  Again, credit is due to a young and talented secondary for Sunday's win, this one being the Miami Dolphins.  Keep one eye on them when checking out the Fins, and another on LT Jake Long, who may be the best tackle in the league judging from the way he shut down Minny sackmaster Jared Allen.
  • What an outstanding job of adjusting to the situation in front of their faces by the Chicago Bears offense and its coordinator Mike Martz.  QB Jay Cutler was being mauled by DeMarcus Ware and a Dallas pass rush hungry and mad from their opening loss to Washington.  So the 3rd quarter featured much quick slants and timing patterns by the Bears, utilizing any receiver close to the line of scrimmage as an outlet to get rid of the damn ball before Cutler could get annihilated again.  And when the Cowboys tried to counter and play closer to the line, Cutler launched big bombs down the field to set up scores in the 4th quarter and put the game away.  I can't wait for the rest of the season to unfold so I can find out if the Bears are really that smart or if the Cowboys are really that dumb.
  • I was right about the Detroit Lions running game having some room to operate, although RB Jahvid Best did most of his damage catching balls out of the backfield.  I wish I was wrong about it because Best was Jason's 3rd round fantasy pick, and he bent me over Sunday like I was his prison bitch.  Yet the Eagles had the winning ground game with LeSean McCoy going off, and that's thanks to QB Michael Vick and his big arm.  It's easy to forget that Vick can throw the pill really far because he's such a threat with his feet, and once he started slinging it around in the air--including a long TD to DeSean Jackson--Detroit had to respect the passing game, allowing McCoy to rack up the rushing yards (120) and the TDs (3).
  • The Cardinals simply had no answer for Atlanta's running game, giving up chunks of yardage to Michael Turner in the 1st half, and after he got hurt, to his backup Jason Snelling in the 2nd half.  Arizona had a legendarily bad road record the last few years before Kurt Warner led them to a 6-2 mark last year.  Kurt Warner ain't walking through that door.
  • 3 sacks for one man in the first 2 games of the season.  This just in:  Clay Matthews is a beast.
  • Get That Dang Negro QB Out of the Game Even Though It's Only Week 2, Part I:  Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher witnesses Vince Young--who only saved Fisher's job last year by stepping in and almost leading the Titans to the playoffs after an atrocious start--struggling against arguably the best defense in the league, the Pittsburgh Steelers, and something crawls into his head to make him think that 72-year-old Kerry Collins could fare better.  Dead-ass wrong, Jeffy.  Kerry Collins??  Versus that Steelers D??  That was going to lead you to victory??  Really?!
  • It's going to be a long season for Carolina if they're going to tackle like that.  Lots of guys slipping through defenders' hands contributed to the embarrassing home loss to the great Josh Freeman and a 2-0 Tampa Bay squad.  The Panthers, apparently just now figuring out that Matt Moore sucks, will give Notre Dame "star" Jimmy Clausen a go at QB.  Let's hope for his sake that Clausen doesn't show up for Sunday's game in a limo.
  • Get That Dang Negro QB Out of the Game Even Though It's Only Week 2, Part II:  Okay, this is ridiculous.  The Raiders just acquired Jason Campbell this past offseason as a panacea to their QB woes.  So coach Tom Cable takes a minute after beating up another woman to decide that Campbell needed to benched in the 2nd half for Bruce Gradkowski.  Really??  Now, Bruce Almighty did throw what turned out to be the game-winning TD.  But I must point out two things that make this move absurd in addition to the fact that, hello, it's only Week 2:  1, Bruce pulled off the win against the St. Louis Rams, which is nothing to brag about. 2, Campbell's stats at the time of his benching:  8-15-87 yds, INT.  He's only thrown one pick and his completion rate is over 50%.  This constitutes the need for a benching now?  Really??  Hey, Tom, was it worth it to place doubt in the QB who you just picked up a few months ago?  You're a dope.
  • Nice showing by the Denver Broncos, taking the obviously less talented Seahawks to the woodshed.  An injured Denver WR decided to invent a strange new victory celebration--insert gun into mouth and pull.  (I know, waaaay too soon.)
  • Maybe Jason's premature sighting in Houston of a new set of Triplets is for reals?  The Redskins don't allow Arian Foster to run roughshod over them, so Matt Schaub remembers that he can throw to these awesome WRs, and 38 completions and 497 yards later, the Texans overcame a 17-point deficit and beat Washington in OT.  Oh, and a great freezing timeout by Houston coach Gary Kubiak, nullifying a game-winning FG by the Skins kicker from 53 yards away.  He missed the re-try, and the Texans won on the ensuing possession.  Some people scream that there should be a change to the rules to stop coaches from calling timeout a split second before a kick.  I don't have a problem with the timeouts at all.  I don't see why coaches should be allowed to call timeout right before any play is run except a FG try, and I don't see why special teams coaches can't counter the freeze move if they want by changing the tempo of a kick sequence.  They don't have to have the kicker take his steps back, then two to the left, then several seconds making sure everyone is set before the snap.  They can make it tighter and shorten the number of seconds in order to get the kick off before the coach calls timeout.  But I'm solidly against changing the rule.  Besides, sometimes the kicker misses the first and makes the second, so it doesn't always work out anyway.
  • Get That Dang Negro QB Out of the Game Even Though It's Only Week 2, Part III:  Jacksonville's David Garrard is told to take a seat in the middle of their blowout at the hands of the Chargers, who apparently needed a bad loss to KC to get their shit together.  Yeah, Luke McCown was going to bring the Jaguars back to steal this victory.  Luke McCown??  Really??  In other news, it was Black QB Lynching Day in the NFL.  Curiously, no press releases were sent out in honor of this glorious day.
  • Randy Moss pissed all over Revis Island in one of the great fake-outs and catches you will ever see.  But the Jets managed to beat the Patriots anyway because the New England secondary is atrocious.  Seriously, multiple pass interference calls, fluttering balls thrown by Mark Sanchez that floated in the air for about four and a half minutes before coming down in his receiver's hands...the Pats should be ashamed that they allowed a come-from-behind win to that crappy offense.
  • That Colts pass rush was unstoppable Sunday night.  Eli Manning surely saw Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis in his nightmares after the game.  Among the chaos, however, the Giants running game was defined for anyone wondering:  Ahmad Bradshaw is the every down back, and Brandon Jacobs will no longer be a Giant very, very soon.
  • Mike Singletary: still psycho.  The San Fran coach almost ate a referee's head after screaming to get his attention to call a 4th quarter timeout.  But he had his team playing hard against the world champion Saints, and the Niners pulled off a late drive and 2-point conversion to tie the game and thrill the home crowd.  So, SF played inspired.  New Orleans?  They played like champions, with QB Drew Brees calmly leading the Saints down the field to set up the game-winning FG.  That's the difference between champs and wannabes.  No one in their right minds believed that San Fran was going to win that game, even after they tied it.  The Saints offense with time on the clock was a lock to get the job done.

When the Saints Go Squeaking By

"Oh they wont cover that number
When the Saints go squeaking by....."

Sing it!!

"Oh when the Saints
Go Squeaking By
Oh when the Saints go squeaking by (Oh when the Saints)....." continue

After the euphoric first week of 12-4's, we were both expecting huge disappointments (like 3-13's) this week. The 49ers showed up to play and gave the champs a fight, but the Saints managed a last second field goal to give them the win, and to give us a cover. Two weeks in, and I'm still not overly impressed with the defending champs.

Week 2 results: We survived!

Jason 8-8
Dre 9-7

You got me this week, Dre! Yet my revenge came on the fantasy side, mwahahahahaha!!

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Sunday ATS Recap: Blow'd Up

This is more what we're used to. After the relative ease of Week 1, Week 2 provided big lines and bigger blowouts. Dre and I also faced off against each other for our only matchup of the fantasy regular season. I showed Dre why making fun of my high round draft choice of Jahvid Best was a bad idea.

  • Bengals 15, Ravens 10 - Jason winner, Dre loser. Since the dismal first half against New England, Cincy has now played 6 pretty solid quarters of football. Beating the Ravens is a sure step in the right direction for the Bengals. While I have big long-term expectations for Baltimore this year, they look like a risky short term cover.
  • Dolphins 14, Vikings 10 - Jason loser, Dre winner. I hate losing games to the "Favre Rule," but this week it served Dre well. Miami tried really hard to gift the game to the Vikes, but a late stuff of AP on a 4th and goal at the 1 sealed the deal, and the pick.
  • Bears 27, Cowboys 20 - Jason winner, Dre loser. I tried to warn Dre. My Bears Road Dog sense was tingling, and while my prophetic powers usually concern the Bears on the road against AFC foes, something about the awfulness of the Cowboys against Washington seemed like it was going to seep its way into this game as well. Jay Cutler looks more comfortable in the new offense in it's second week. Dallas, on the other hand, looks lost. My reaction is still HAHAHAHAHAHAHA SUCKAS!!!
  • Eagles 35, Lions 32 - Both winners. If I'm a fan of anything, it's Garbage Time Touchdowns. The Lions played valiantly for a second straight week and almost gutted out a tremendous comeback, thanks to Jahvid Best and his 36 fantasy points. Best can suck the rest of the season now, I think he just knew Dre made fun of my picking him in our fantasy league.
  • Falcons 41, Cardinals 7 - Both losers. I said I wanted to see something out of Atlanta before I felt I could trust picking them to cover a spread. This definitely qualified as something. Jason Snelling is poised to be the waiver wire pickup player of Week 3, much like Brandon Jackson was for Week 2. Unexpected squoosh, but as a Falcon fan, I'll take it.
  • Chiefs 16, Browns 14 - Jason loser, Dre winner. Fuck the Browns.
  • Packers 34, Bills 7 - Both winners. After a sluggish first half, Aaron Rodgers looked a lot like his 2009 self and lit up the Bills through the air and with his feet. Sad thought of the week: Bears/Packers next week on MNF is a battle for first place.
  • Steelers 19, Titans 11 - Jason loser, Dre winner. I was concerned that the Steelers couldn't keep up the defensive intensity they displayed at home against Atlanta and carry it over into Nashville. Mouth, meet foot.
  • Bucs 20, Panthers 7 - Both losers. This is embarrassing now. I'm the creator and only member of the Josh Freeman fan club, and I REFUSE TO PICK HIM TO WIN GAMES. By the time I figure this out, it'll be too late.
  • Raiders 16, Rams 14 - Jason loser, Dre winner. I'm thinking I'm toast for the week on our picks, about to lose 5 of the 7 that Dre and I differed on. Little did I know that while the Raiders were giving up the spread killing TD to the Rams, the Texans were rewarding me for picking them. Why is this blurb about the Texans saving my week? Because nobody cares about the Rams or the Raiders.
  • Broncos 31, Seahawks 14 - Both winners. The Pete Carrol Rah-Rah-Sis-Boom-Bah festival of man-love ended as we both predicted.
  • Texans 30, Redskins 27 (OT Baby) - Jason winner, Dre loser. Key season opening win against division rival? Check. Gritty, come from behind road win? Check. Saving Jason from an embarrasing 2-5 against Dre in the picks? Check.
  • Chargers 38, Jaguars 13 - Both losers. About that upset special of the week? Yeah, sorry about that.
  • Jets 28, Patriots 14 - Both losers. The Pats will only be able to win with no running game for so long. This also showed what the Jets are capable of when Mark Sanchez isn't awful. Sadly for Jets fans, he'll be awful more often than he's not. 0-2 disaster averted for NY, but great things do not lie ahead.
  • Colts 38, Giants 14 - Both winners. Bad spot for the Giants having to face the Colts after they got embarrassed by Houston. Mathis and Freeney looked posessed, forcing the game changing TD just as the Giants looked to have some life. Peyton Manning needed a game like this to get Dre off the ledge after proclaiming that Peyton would win 9 of the next 10 Super Bowls, or something like that. I was too busy laughing to pay attention to that prediction.
Another great Sunday of football is in the bag. As for that fantasy matchup between myself and Dre:

Short Term Gaines (that's my tasteless name of the year) - 164 pts with 2 guys left to play Mon night.
Chris Henry Rides Shotgun (that's Dre's tasteless name of the year) - 148 pts and nobody left to play.

Maybe I'll get to that 200 points I predicted after all. Though 180 would be pretty nice too. Gets me closer to that Points Championship!

2010 Week #2

Here are the picks for Week 2.


Fav  Spread
Dre Jay
Bal (1-0) 2 1/2 CIN (0-1)

Bal Cin
MIN (0-1) 5 1/2 Mia (1-0)

Mia Min
DAL (0-1) 7    Chi (1-0)

Dal Chi
Phi (0-1) 6 1/2 DET (0-1)

Det Det
ATL (0-1) 6 1/2 Ariz (1-0)

Ariz Ariz
CLE (0-1) 3    KC (1-0)

KC Cle
GB (1-0) 13    Buf (0-1)

GB GB
TENN(1-0) 5    Pit (1-0)

Pit Tenn
CAR (0-1) 3    TB (1-0)

Car Car
OAK (0-1) 3 1/2 StL(0-1)

StL Oak
DEN (0-1) 3 1/2 Sea (1-0)

Den Den
Hou (1-0) 2 1/2 WASH (1-0)

Wash Hou
SD (0-1) 7    Jack (1-0)

Jack Jack
NE (1-0) 2 1/2 NYJ (0-1)

NE NE


Sun. Nite



IND (0-1) 5    NYG (1-0)

Ind Ind


Mon. Nite



NO (1-0) 5 1/2 SF (0-1)

SF SF

Some of our thoughts and observations included:
  • Jason still believes in the Cincinnati Bengals as a quality team, even after they got debacled in New England.  I disagree.  I was never sold on the whole T.O. & Chad Ochocinco Show because it came along about five years too late.  The Ravens should feel like this game is a breeze after the bright lights of New York on Monday night.
  • I don't love the Dolphins covering 5 1/2 against the Vikings, but of course I must take them due to the Brett Favre Rule.  I can make the case that Miami's running game should keep them close, especially with the Minnesota run defense looking like they're fading away against the Saints.  But I don't believe in the pick very strongly.
  • Jason has a sixth sense when it comes to smelling a Chicago Bears improbable road upset, and he's on board here, taking them to beat the Cowboys straight up.  While I agree that Dallas has been overrated by all of the pundits, I think this Bears secondary is a nice place for Tony Romo and the Boys to recover from their Redskins whooping and find their way back to the end zone.
  • Vickamania has hit the country and hit it hard, and the Eagles are all the rage in Vegas this week, sporting almost a touchdown spread at the Detroit Lions' home opener.  We're not buying it, not ATS anyway.  Jason thinks the Lions with a week to prepare for Michael Vick will figure out a way to collapse the pocket and put pressure on him to make good football decisions, which has not historically been his strong suit.  I see that angle, and I also don't like the Eagles missing their middle linebacker Stewart Bradley.  Detroit could actually sustain a running game this week.
  • Atlanta should still compete for a playoff spot this year, but we'll take those Arizona Redbirds to cover that number, which is a little big for the Falcons until they prove otherwise.
  • Jason thinks the Monday night love that Kansas City felt in pulling off their upset of the Chargers will wear off, and they will come crashing back down to earth against the Browns in the Dawg Pound.  I couldn't go with Jake Delhomme at QB for the Browns last week, and I can't go with Seneca Wallace this week.  The Chiefs may not be much, but they're young and talented and good enough to beat the Brownies.
  • We both love the Packers to pound the Bills by more than two touchdowns, but we see it playing out a little differently.  Jason has QB Aaron Rodgers lighting up the sky with bombs everywhere, throwing for 4 TDs or so in the 1st half.  I think Rodgers will take it relatively easy on the arm knowing he doesn't have to fling the pill around everywhere to beat Buffalo, giving the running game and the #1 waiver-wire pickup in fantasy this week, RB Brandon Jackson, time to shine.
  • Jason thinks that Tennessee is the goods this year, and it's hard to argue, but I'm skeptical because they played the Raiders in Week 1, and anyone can look good playing the Raiders.  Pittsburgh's D really looked good to me, so I'll take the Steelers to cover the number in a low-scoring, physical affair.
  • Jason didn't learn his lesson, going against Josh Freeman and the Buccaneers yet again.  Let's see how many weeks he picks against Tampa before he fully commits to the Free Love bandwagon.  (I'm also against TB this week, so I'm not paying attention either.)
  • Speaking of those Raiders, Jason will ride them this week against a rookie QB and an awful St. Louis outfit, but I can't see myself picking Oakland anytime soon.  The whole organization is so horrifying, they should have a documentary made about them and release it in time for Halloween.  What house decorations could be scarier than a big screen showing Al Davis drooling all over himself and staring the camera down without blinking?  I think Al is actually no longer with us and they're wheeling him around "Weekend At Bernie's" style.  I also think that the Rams should be smart enough to give the rock to RB Steven Jackson and let him dominate time of possession.
  • Neither of us are fans of Josh McDaniels and the misfits that are the Denver Broncos, but we have to make Pete Carroll and the Seahawks show us a reason to believe in them again before we make that commitment.  This time, they're on the road in a tough venue for visitors.  Big advantage, Broncos.
  • Maybe the Houston Texans really have arrived.  If you ask the Colts, they'll say, absolutely.  I'm still not totally convinced.  Jason points out that an offense with a potent RB, like Arian Foster, added to an already dangerous QB-WR combo, like Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, must be respected because having those "triplets" usually brings much success to a team.  I still need to see Foster do that against a good defense before I even consider calling them the New Triplets.  The Redskins were flying to the ball on D last week against the Cowboys, and they gave up a respectable 4.0 yards per carry last year, so I'd call them a good defense.  If Foster shows up against them and goes for anywhere close to 200 yards, then call me a Monkee because I'll be a believer.  But until then, I'm taking the Skins.
  • For the second week in a row, we're both calling a big upset straight up.  Last week, it was Chiefs over Chargers, and this week it's Jaguars over...oh, um, it's the Chargers again.  Notice a pattern?
  • Our Jets hate is well documented, but I'll throw in an extra reason why I like New England to tap dat ass:  Randy Moss is PISSED.  The Patriots gave some straight cash homie to Tom Brady but refuse to extend Moss beyond this, his last year of his contract.  Moss had some choice words about the matter last week after the win over Cincy, making it clear that he doesn't feel appreciated and that he doesn't want to discuss it after every game.  I think he's going to go out and try to tear the league up every time this year in order to show the Pats what they have and what they may lose.  And this week, Moss will surely be covered by the premier CB in the league, Darrelle Revis, who historically has shut down Moss.  If there's one game where Moss feels that he has to prove his greatness, I think it's this one against Revis Island.  On top of that, Revis supposedly has a hamstring issue, which Jason thinks is a lie.  But if it's not, Brady and Moss will find out quickly and exploit it all day.
  • We both like the 49ers to cover Monday night in their home opener against the Saints.  Coach Psycho, Mike Singletary, has presumably been tearing the whole squad a new asshole all week in practice after that shameful effort in Seattle, and San Fran should come out with much better effort against the Super Bowl champs.

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

2010 Week 1: What I Learned

  • The Minnesota Vikings are in deep doo-doo.  Receivers Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin are injury liabilities, and Bernard Berrian can't get on the same page with the sainted Brett Favre.  And tailback Adrian Peterson may have lost a step.  Any success for the Vikings this season is predicated on duplicating the top-notch season that the offense produced last season.  If that can't happen, Purple Pride can Pack it in and concede the division to Green Bay now.  Pack it in.  See what I did there?
  • Tim Tebow: 2 carries, 2 yards.  Yep, sounds about right.  Seriously, Josh McDaniel is a world-class dumbass for drafting this guy in the 1st round.  Who drafts a quarterback in the 1st round that CAN'T PLAY QUARTERBACK?!?
  • Tennessee may piece together drives with with a stud (Chris Johnson) at RB and ten-yard out patterns thrown by Vince Young against the hapless Raiders, but the reason they can't ever go anywhere is because the moment they run into a team that can handle the rush, they have no other alternatives.  The best way to loosen up a defense designed to stop the run is to threaten to throw over the top, but the Titans have no deep threats to speak of.  They hoped that Kenny Britt could develop into one, but he appears to be too immature to do so.
  • Over-under on the first tweet from Chad Johnson or Terrell Owens bitching about QB Carson Palmer:  3 weeks.  As for the Patriots, Tom Brady simply must have his car hit by stupid lunkheads with multiple traffic offenses every week before each game.
  • My easy win every week picking against the Cleveland Browns because they are starting Jake Delhomme at QB might come to an end after one game.  Delhomme may not start Week 2 (ankle).  The Browns' backup QB?  Seneca Wallace.  Um, did they get their players in an expansion draft of other teams' castoffs?
  • Speaking of deep doo-doo, the Indianapolis Colts had to have flashbacks of a couple of seasons ago when everyone opened up a can of whoop-ass and ran the ball down their throats.  I specifically remember a game against Jacksonville when Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor took turns ripping off 20-yard runs at will.  Texans RB Arian Foster was relentless on Sunday, going off for 231 yards on 33 carries and 3 TDs.  The common thread in Sunday's game and two years go from the Colts' perspective?  Missing SS Bob Sanders, who was injured most of that season, most of this game, and most of his career, which may be over with this latest injury, a possible torn biceps.  Sanders seemed to always be there to support his defenders when a big run was developing, and when he misses time, that whole run defense has always suffered.  If they can't figure out a way to replace his production, the Colts are in serious trouble.  And Foster can't be trusted to be real because he won't play the Colts every week.
  • I understand that by the letter of the rule, Calvin Johnson technically did not catch that ball in the end zone that would have given the Detroit Lions a late lead over the Chicago Bears.  Fine.  Change the fucking rule.  The man caught the ball, put both feet down in the end zone, put his ass down in the end zone, never juggled the ball during this time, and only let the ball slip out of his hand after he rolled over and started to stand up to celebrate the catch.  I'm genuinely confused as to why the same actions would have been a touchdown if Johnson had swiped the ball through the plane of the end zone on his way out of bounds.  The Lions were totally robbed, and the Bears totally won a game that they didn't deserve to win.
  • The Steelers may not have their big-armed QB Ben Roethlisberger, may not have his backup Byron Leftwich, may not have their big play WR threat from last year, Santonio Holmes...but they still have that defense that will knock the snot out of you, from the quick linemen to the most talented core of linebackers in the league to the secondary led by the Million Dollar Hair, Troy Polamalu.  And that D allowed Pittsburgh to pull out a big run by Rashard Mendenhall and a big win in OT.  One game down minus Big Ben, three to go.
  • The Buffalo Bills are going to have a long, long season.
  • So will the Carolina Panthers, if they're going to let average WRs like Hakeem Nicks take down 3 TD catches every game.
  • The Packers shouldn't miss a beat with Brandon Jackson at RB, replacing Ryan Grant, whose season ended on Sunday with torn ankle ligaments.  The way Green Bay's offense flows, the running back functions as a blocker and occasional pass catcher anyway.  On defense, I was aware of LB Clay Matthews being moved this year from the right side to the left, and I wondered if doing that to someone who had such an impactful rookie year would stunt his play.  Nope, there he was in the middle of many failed Eagles drives, breaking up passes and disrupting the offense.  He may be a natural at this game, which would make sense considering his dad was a longtime NFL player as well.  As for the Philadelphia Eagles, it's not going to be easy for coach Andy Reid to put his pet project Kevin Kolb back at QB for the next game after he struggled mightily Sunday before getting knocked out with a concussion.  Michael Vick, rising from the grave like one of his doggie zombies, came on to relieve Kolb and looked like a video game, at a faster speed than his opponents, looking like the man that in 2006 ran for more yards than any QB in history.  Problem is, Vick won no rings with all those yards, and I don't think Kolb will, either.  Reid has a full-fledged QB controversy on his hands after one game of the season.  Good luck with that.
  • 55 pass attempts for Sam Bradford in his rookie debut?  The St. Louis Rams have no idea what they're doing.  I didn't think they had to start Bradford at all to begin the season, but considering how much money they're paying him, I'm sure they felt like they had to.  But with that decision, you'd think they would ease him into the NFL and let their veteran RB Steven Jackson carry the load.  No, not interested.  The Rams wanted to see what they had right out of the gate.  The result:  253 yards, a TD, and three picks.  And a 4.6 yard per pass attempt average.  For those wondering:  That blows.
  • That rah rah, sis-boom-bah shit that Pete Carroll was employing in his return to the NFL coaching the Seattle Seahawks Sunday will work for only so long.  But that was a great spot for it--in his home debut against the consensus pre-season division champ pick San Francisco, where he can tell his guys that no one believes in them and it's them against the world.  It didn't hurt that his opponent has a psycho for a head coach (Mike Singletary, who thanked the Hawks after the game for beating him) and isn't very good offensively.  The 49ers should still win the NFC West, but they're doing absolutely nothing in the playoffs with Alex Smith at QB and no receivers other than Michael Crabtree.
  • And speaking of head coaches with no chance of winning the Super Bowl, I give you Wade Phillips and the Dallas Cowboys.  Simply put, no team dumb enough to run a swing pass to the RB with no time on the clock in the 1st half and the ball back at their own 33 yard line can put together 3 or 4 wins in playoff time.  (In case you missed the play, it resulted in a fumble and TD for the Washington Redskins, but I don't know what Phillips or the offensive coordinator Jason Garrett thought was going to happen when they called the damn play.)  And Roy Williams was the one man wrecking crew for his own team, dropping passes left and right.  Get him off the field.  Jason says that Skins QB Donovan McNabb looks done, and I have a hard time arguing that.  But the fact is, he suffered through some crappy WR corps in Philly before they started drafting receivers with talent such as Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson, and then they deal McNabb to another crappy receiving corps.  I don't know what he's supposed to do with Santana Moss and Anthony Armstrong as his pass catchers, along with TE Chris Cooley.  I dare say none of the top QBs in the league could do much with those bums.
  • The Jets have no heart, and no QB.  I'd rather marvel at the Baltimore Ravens.  This is a team built on defense, but the D has some old guys trying to get it done, so I always think that they're on the verge of no longer being effective and falling apart.  But so long as LB Ray Lewis can still put on the uniform, he's going to lead his team into battle and give it all he's got, and the team seems to go as he goes.  His penchant for making bone-rattling, momentum-shifting hits consistently Monday against the J-E-T-S was pretty awesome to watch.  In some ways, I feel like I've never watched a player quite like Ray Lewis, and maybe I never will again.  Oh, and did Joe Flacco and the Ravens' passing game provide a template for beating the vaunted Jets' D?  Short passes underneath, and long bombs when they show blitz?  Will it really be that easy?
  • And yet another coach with his head firmly up Mr. Rectum.  Norv Turner will lead the San Diego Chargers directly into another disappointing postseason and nowhere else.  Book it.

Nowhere But Down From Here

In 20+ years of doing this, I can never remember a season where both Dre and I got off to 12-4 starts. In the world of the "experts" who pick the games, a .500 win percentage is the gold standard picking ATS. Week 2 should be extremely interesting.

Monday Night Recap

  • Ravens 10, Jets 9 - Both winners. The forums I scanned were full of whining about what a boring game this was. I completely beg to differ. This was perhaps the best defenses in the league kicking the shit out of each other in a war of attrition for 60 minutes. The Jets wont be a legitimate contender until they do something about the QB position. Sanchez is a fraud, plain and simple. I remember all the stories about his meteoric rise up the draft board last year having more to do with his marketability rather than his playing ability. That is a recipe for disaster at the most important position on the field. Any games the Jets win this season will be in spite of their offense. As for the Ravens, it was pretty much what I expected. They wanted to send a message, and they did, winning with the real hard knocks and overcoming three turnovers. Great game. Shut up whiners.
  • Chiefs 21, Chargers 14 - Both winners. What a way to end a great week of picking these games, having a nice little upset pick come home for us. The Chiefs will win much the same way as the Jets, in spite of their quarterback, this season. The Chargers never really seemed to get it going, but this is still a top-half team in the league. They'll be OK.
Onward to Week 2!

Sunday, September 12, 2010

Sunday ATS Recap: JTG Style

After the snoozefest Thursday night game, I was hoping for a much better slate of action on Sunday. I was not disappointed.

  • Jaguars 24, Broncos 17 - Jason winner, Dre loser. Denver gave me a cheap win in last years season opener, so I knew not to go to the well on that one again. Jacksonville is a mystery, but I'm going to guess last year was the abberation and they are on their way to being competitive again.
  • Titans 38, Raiders 13 - Both winners. When Vince Young points at the sky after doing something great (since no player points up after being awful), does he see himself pointing back?
  • Patriots 38, Bengals 24 - Both winners. Many TV "experts" had Cincy as the chic pick of the week. We knew better.
  • Bucs 17, Browns 14 - Jason loser, Dre winner. Pick looked good until late Tampa touchdown. I should have seen this, since I spent much of last year touting Josh Freeman as potentially the best QB drafted in the '09 class. Way to listen to myself!
  • Texans 34, Colts 24 - Both losers. We both said this would be the week for the Texans to show us something. They did big time.
  • Bears 19, Lions 14 - Both winners. That's the second time this year I've felt sick to my stomach watching a Detroit team robbed of a thrilling feat. First Armando Gallarraga, and now the Calvin Johnson play. Every replay looked the same to me: catch, foot down, second foot down, another foot down just for good measure, knee down, hand down, booty down, windmill the ball into the turf and it slips out, Johnson gets up to celebrate. There were maybe 10 people in my vicinity watching this and we all saw a touchdown catch. Sadly, the bankrolled NFL talking head apologists are already saying the right call was made. Sickening.
  • Steelers 15, Falcons 9 (OT) - Both winners. Trap dodged!
  • Dolphins 15, Bills 10 - Jason winner, Dre loser. I sure hope that wasn't Dre who started C.J. Spiller in every fantasy league he's in....oh wait, it was.
  • Giants 31, Panthers 18 - Both winners. The Panthers showed some fight, then realized they were the Carolina Panthers.
  • Packers 27, Eagles 20 - Both winners. I could clearly see why Andy Reid would give a vote of confidence to Kevin Kolb. He was awesome until Clay Matthews ran his face into the turf and Micheal Vick looked awful. Wait....I think that went the other way around, so what game was Andy Reid watching? If Kolbs' face hadn't slid a few yards in the dirt, the Packers probably end up winning 40-10. Vick breathed life into a dead team, so once Kolb is haze-free, it's back to the doghouse for No. 7. Too soon?
  • Cardinals 17, Rams 13 - Both winners...barely. Meh.
  • Seahawks 31, Niners 6 - Jason loser, Dre winner. I did NOT see that coming.
  • Redskins 13, Cowboys 7 - Both losers. Whoa, that was ugly. I know Washington won, but Donovan McNabb is done. Every pass he completed had to be a diving stab by his receivers. Not a good way to rack up the YAC when Santana Moss is rolling into every ball. As for the Cowboys, all I can say is....hahahahahahahahaha SUCKAS!!!
Amazingly, we're both 10-4 going into the Monday doubleheader. Which means that Week 2 is going to be really, really ugly for us.

2010 Week #1

Here are the picks for Week 1.  Home team in CAPS.

Fav Spread Dog

Dre Jay


Sunday



JACK 3    Den

Den Jack
TENN 6    Oak

Tenn Tenn
NE 5    Cin

NE NE
TB 2 1/2 Cle

TB Cle
Ind 1    HOU

Ind Ind
CHI 6 1/2 Det

Det Det
Atl 1    PIT

Pit Pit
Mia 3    BUF

Buf Mia
NYG 6    Car

NY NY
GB 3    PHI

GB GB
Ariz 3 1/2 STL

Ariz Ariz
SF 3    SEA

Sea SF


Sun. Nite



Dal 3 1/2 WASH

Dal Dal


Mon. Nite


NYJ 1    Bal

Bal Bal
SD 4 1/2 KC

KC KC


Some of our comments and observations about Week 1 included:

We both are sick and tired of the Vince Young love in Tennessee, but we have to admit that "God" has a way about him and seems to know how to win.  Oakland and Tom Cable, not so much.  We're looking forward to the first Chad Johnson-Terrell Owens outing in New England, because in Tom Brady, they will get to witness what a real quarterback looks like.  I like Tampa over Cleveland only because Tampa isn't starting Jake Delhomme.  We're still waiting for the big breakout season in Houston, which according to all the experts, should be coming along any day now.  Jason couldn't go all the way and pick the Lions to beat the new and improved Mike Martz-era Bears, but I will.  The horrible Bears offensive line combined with a monster defensive tackle (Ndamukong Suh) playing his first game for Detroit should spell a long day for Bears QB Jay Cutler.  We completely outthunk ourselves picking the Steelers minus Big Ben to beat the Falcons.  We were so busy stepping over the trap of taking Atlanta to beat Dennis Dixon and the Steel Curtain that we took Pitt and walked right into a potential sinkhole.  I like Buffalo at home over Miami because the Bills have a new toy in RB C.J. Spiller, and I think they're going to play with him early and often.  We think Arizona should cover 3.5 on a rookie QB (Sam Bradford) starting for a really bad team (St. Louis Rams).  I do like San Francisco to win the NFC West, but I'll step on a limb and take the Seattle Seahawks in their home opener, since it will be one of the few games that QB Matt Hasselbeck will be able to take the field.  We both think that the one team that the New York Jets wouldn't want to piss off for the season opener would be the Baltimore Ravens, and Ray Lewis is very pissed off.  That's bad news for QB Mark Sanchez and the rest of that pop gun offense.  And we both got a bad vibe from the Chargers opening at a tough venue in Kansas City at 9:15P local time.  It feels like one of those unusual situations where a team plays way above their heads due to the charged atmosphere.  Tack on San Diego missing their best receiver and starting an unproven running back, and we'll go with the Chefs to cook up an upset.

Saturday, September 11, 2010

A Quick Take on Unity

If the players want to show the owners they are truly united in the labor talks, they are holding up the wrong finger in protest!

I be here all da veek

Friday, September 10, 2010

We Salute You, Nameless PAT Blocking Guy

So, it wasn't quite a squoosh after all. But with NO favored by 4½ points, that blocked PAT sure looked good. A win is a win.

Some musings on the game and pre-game festivities:

Taylor Swift is awful. I think Kanye was on to something.
Dave Matthews set the perfect tone for the game...by trying to put me to sleep.
The players all signifying their brotherhood in the labor talks was so sweet. Then they tried to kill each other.
The game itself was such a letdown after all the build up. Yes it was just one game, but neither team did much to impress me.

I'm hoping for a better Kickoff Weekend. Full picks to come soon...in much less detail.


Wednesday, September 8, 2010

My Thursday Night Pick, and Season Prediction

Even though I must take New Orleans thanks to the Favre Rule, I feel compelled to state that I like the Saints Thursday night anyway.  The Vikings minus Sidney Rice should have trouble keeping up.  And I like making a Super Bowl pick before the season starts just to have it on the record, even though so many changes happen to a typical NFL roster between now and the end of the season that it's really a silly exercise to try and call the Super Bowl now.  But I'm nothing if not a master of silly exercises.  My pick is Colts over Packers, and furthermore, I'm calling about a four or five-year run for Peyton Manning and the Colts in the Super Bowl counting last year.  No QB playing today and maybe ever commands his offense like Peyton Manning.  He should be retiring in the next five years or so, and I think until then he's just going to execute that offense so well that no one can knock his team out in the AFC playoffs.  Two or three more rings for Peyton before he quits.  You heard it here first.

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

NFL Kickoff 2010: No Line Needed

Finally, some real football. After suffering through the Summer of No Hitting (and less Steroids) in baseball, it's about time that the NFL showed up. Let's all enjoy the last year of the collective bargaining agreement, and what may be the last year of the current NFL as we know it. They're already screwing up overtime because Brett Favre decided to end another NFC championship game with a horrible interception. Thanks, Brett! All we need now is for the Vikings to finish 11-5 and miss the playoffs while the NFC West winner goes 7-9 and gets a 4 seed. What will they do for Brett after that? Maybe they'll rearrange the playoffs on a BCS style system, where Brett Favre becomes Notre Dame and just has to win 6 games to make it into a BCS bowl game.

Don't mistake this as an anti-Favre rant. I've loved watching him play over the last 34 years of my life. And sure, the Favre drama this summer was substantially less than last summer, but that's just because of The Summer of LeBron and "The Decision" (an entire blog rant of it's own).

Anyways, Dre and I are kicking off Year 22 of NFL picks this week. Which means one thing:

We're really getting old....

I am not even waiting for the line on this game. I know I'm letting Dre off the hook by agreeing with his self-imposed Favre Rule, but I have a feeling the Saints are going to try to finish the job they set out on in the NFC Championship game: retire Brett for good.

Saints squoosh (squoosh is an official IMLD term for "whoop the other teams' ass")

Sunday, September 5, 2010

Welcome!

Hey yo.  Thank you for stopping by, although I don't know why you would.  This blog will chronicle the ATS (against the spread) NFL picks by my buddy and me.  My buddy is Jason, and I'm Dre.  We will also flash back from time to time and remember some of the more crazy and interesting stories concerning our picks from days gone by.  And since we've both been casual fantasy football players in various online leagues, we will share those tales as well.  And if you find us entertaining, although again I don't know why you would, we hope to someday soon fire up a weekly podcast and record these off the wall, free flowing wacky 2-hour conversations that we wind up having as we attempt to pick each week's games...in much less detail!!

A quick bit about us:  Jason and I have been best friends since 1st grade, which dates back to (shudder) 1982.  We both were huge sports fans, and we ran up our respective parents' phone bills watching games on the phone together.  He can clarify when he steps up to the keyboard, but I believe we started picking NFL games in 1989, the first year that we attended separate schools.  We may have quit after that regular season, then decided to pick all the way through the playoffs next year, culminating in the earliest final season-ending result of our picks that either of us can remember, which would be...a tie.  The Buffalo Bills were favored over the New York Giants in Super Bowl XXV, but we weren't even using point spreads then.  Jason was ahead of me by one pick, and since he picked the favored Bills to win, I had to take the Giants and that future Hall of Famer (not) Jeff Hostetler to win just to gain a season tie with Jason.  Little did we know when we watched the Scott Norwood kick go wide right to salvage the tie for me that we were witnessing the beginning of a four-year run of suck by those Bills, who went on to lose the next three Super Bowls.  But that's the fun of making the picks--going back and seeing the NFL history that developed in those games that we tried to predict.  We went to the point spreads a year or two later while attending high school together.  We needed the challenge after we started putting together some ridiculously easy weeks making picks straight up.  And once the league started becoming harder to predict due to "parity," it became a serious challenge for either of us to finish above .500 picking ATS.  But through our various house moves and personal situations over the years, here we are, still picking and gunning for the mythical year-end picks championship, which is for nothing but bragging rights.

About the name of the blog:  It's real simple.  Way back when I was a kid and my folks could afford HBO, Jason and I watched "Inside the NFL," and when they would move to the picks section of the show, one of the old farts, Nick Buoniconti or Len Dawson or someone else, would say, "Now let's move on to our picks, in more detail."  We started referring to our picks as being "in less detail," since we weren't experts like the big boys on TV were, and over the years, it's devolved into picking "in much, much less detail" as our respective records became uglier and uglier.

About the picks:  As I said, against the spread for every game.  No regular-season game is more valuable than another.  (We've discussed having a "Lock of the Week" or "Top 3 Plays" or something like that, making those picks worth more, but we haven't implemented it yet.)  We used to use Sheridan's lines in the newspaper, but neither of us read the paper anymore, plus I like having the most up-to-date point spreads to reflect any last-minute injuries or benchings.  So I use Covers.com, which seems to be a composite of the lines of several different sportsbooks.  We keep up with the picks and figure out our simple percentage at the end of the season.  Last year, I went 115-134 with seven ties for a whopping .462 percentage, and Jason went 114-135 for a .458 percentage.  I developed a point system for the playoffs in an attempt to give the later rounds of the playoffs more importance and gravity.  It's dumb and convoluted and I'm sure a statistician can tell me why it doesn't really help prove who's a better picker, but here it is anyway:  Take the winning percentage and multiply it by 200, and then apply 2 points for every correct pick in the wild card round, 3 points for the divisional round (conference semifinals), 4 points for the conference finals, and 5 points for the Super Bowl.  That came out to 92.4 points at the beginning of the playoffs for me to 91.6 for Jason.  Last year, as it seems to do every year, the final winner came down to the Super Bowl because we were within 5 points of each other.  I was able to take the lead by picking the Colts over the Jets in the AFC title game, meaning I would pick whichever team I wanted in the Super Bowl because Jason had to go against me no matter what.  And I was proud to correctly pick the New Orleans Saints not only to cover 4.5 points as an underdog against the Indianapolis Colts, but to win the game.

One last piece of info before I go:  I'm the loudmouth, arrogant bastard of the two, while Jason is the soft-spoken smart aleck.  I really do go into much detail making my horrible picks, researching all kinds of stats and injury reports and whatnot, while Jason basically picks out of his ass.  And sometimes, I say stupid shit.  It's silly stupid shit, and it's not thought out at all.  I just blurt it out.  Well, my pick has already been made for the first game of the year, before I even know what the line is.  That's because the first game--Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints, Thursday night--will have as one of its quarterbacks, the man who won't die, Brett Favre.  Here's the story:  In 2005, the Green Bay Packers were having an absolutely miserable season.  Favre had crappy stats, most of his good receivers had been hurt most of the year, and he looked for all intents and purposes like he was Brady Quinn DONE.  The Detroit Lions were having a typically crappy season too, and on December 11 the 2-10 Packers hosted the 4-8 Lions on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field.  I was stunned to see the Packers as only a six point favorite.  No matter how bad the Pack may have been, they surely could whip the pathetic Lions at home by a mere touchdown.  After all, they had the Messiah Favre still going out there and gunslinging for them.  So out of my disdain for the Lions and also out of my nausea for how much credit Favre was continuing to receive for his great play and gutsy persona, I made the following declaration to Jason:  If the Pack can't cover six on the Lions, I am NEVER PICKING BRETT FAVRE TO COVER A SPREAD AGAIN.  The Pack had to go to overtime to beat the Lions 16-13.  I of course had absolutely no idea that Favre would go on to return to the Packers the next season...and threaten to retire...and come back again to take the Pack all the way to the NFC title game...and retire...and unretire to play for the Jets...and retire...and unretire to play for the Vikings and take them to the NFC title game...and retire...and unretire to play for the Vikings again this season.  Yes, through all of those iterations of the great Brett Favre, I have stuck to my word and not picked Favre ATS at all.  So there's a slight bit of dishonesty in the history of our picks, because in the last four years, I have not been allowed to take Favre in a game where I like his team to cover.  And it's all thanks to my big fat mouth from all the way back in 2005.

Our picks will be up typically Saturday night, and occasionally early Sunday morning, as well as sometime before kickoff for those special Thursday and Saturday games, like this Thursday's season opener.  Check back often, and thanks for reading.