- I'm still alive! I can earn a season tie if Jason picks the Super Bowl incorrectly. How fitting it would be that in our 1st year of blogging our picks, and in celebration of our 1st year ever making picks in 1989 being a tie, we wind up tied again.
- "Whatta game, huh?" Jason asked me immediately after the Packers' 7-point win over the Bears that started us both off wrong ATS on Sunday. "Yeah," I mumbled, trying to hide how drained I was. "Had a little bit of everything." Let's establish that 1st--I got totally invested in that game, more than I ever thought I would. I tried to watch it as objectively as possible, but I'm still a Bears fan, and the loss crushed me. So I admit that my fandom could be coloring my opinion of the Jay Cutler "controversy" when I say the following: Anyone who questioned how hurt Cutler was or his heart or his toughness, please go walk in front of traffic and die now. Thank you. To sit there on your couch or bar stool (or studio chair, in the case of these "analysts," most of whom never graduated college and barely made it out of high school) and judge how hurt someone else is based on absolutely no information or knowledge makes you a grunting Neanderthal. "He ain't tough! He shoulda tried harder to get back in the game! He ain't got no heart!" Eat a dick, each and every one of you. I'd like to think I'd feel just this strongly about any other team's QB getting killed in the media and social networks, but again, I admit that my Bears fandom may be clouding my judgment a bit. Plus, what other team's QB would be getting crushed like this? Is there any other QB who would be getting killed for having to leave a conference title game with a knee injury and making the horrible choice of standing up and watching the rest of the game instead of lying on the ground acting like his knee had been shot? The judging of Cutler's heart and character based on him having a mopey face and not looking interested has to stop. It's really, really stupid. As for the rest of the game, I'm puzzled how the Packers could come out with such a great game plan to attack a banged-up safety Chris Harris and shitty CB Tim Jennings and rack up chunks of yards at will and still only wind up with 14 offensive points. The Bears actually could have won that game. The D stepped up in the 2nd half and rattled Aaron Rodgers, not to mention the Brian Urlacher INT in the 2nd quarter that almost gave Chicago its 1st TD of the game if not for Rodgers tripping up Urlacher on his way to the end zone. But the Bears made a horrible coaching decision by making Todd Collins the backup QB instead of Caleb Hanie. Collins had to step in and prove he blows in order to prove to Lovie Smith that Hanie had to be given a chance. And dammit, Hanie almost became the next Chicago sports hero. All credit to B.J. Raji for his pick-6, but Hanie came right back out and scored immediately on the next possession, with a little help from Charles Woodson. And by a little help, I mean he completely quit on the Earl Bennett catch, assuming someone else would make the tackle, and watched Bennett turn around and run to the end zone. Woodson is great, possibly a Hall of Famer. He should have been cut immediately and banned from the NFL. I think the entire GB team quit after the Raji TD gave them a 2-TD lead again, leaving the Bears to bust ass trying to pull off a miracle comeback. The Bears can now take away whatever positive feelings they can from that great effort. But I think they know that the Pack should have routed them, and they're not very good. As for Green Bay, that's the top 3 NFC seeds on the road that they took out. They can beat anyone at any time.
- On the AFC side, another strange game between the Jets and Steelers left me with a cover by one whole point. A tale of two halves played out in another tense, tight finish. The Steelers stunned me and everyone watching by running the ball down New York's throats en route to building a 24-0 lead. And then, just as stunning, the Jets came roaring back behind big runs by Shonn Greene and slant throws-a-plenty by Mark Sanchez. Needing to win this pick, and hating Sanchez, I found myself begging for someone to stop the Jets slant patterns, the only routes that seemed to be working for Sanchez. Then a CB fell, he hit Santonio Holmes for a long TD, and I started to get nauseous. The goal-line stand to stop the Jets from getting to within a TD felt like the end of Gang Green, but then a bad QB-center exchange led to the 2nd straight game at Pittsburgh where the Jets got a safety. More slant patterns eventually gave the Jets another TD, but they made a curious decision that gave me the win instead of a push--they took the PAT instead of going for 2 and making it a 4-point game. Going for 2 would have given the Jets a 3-point lead if they would have scored another TD instead of a 2-point lead, so it could be argued that they should have gone for 2. Thank the heavens Rex Ryan was dreaming about feet and didn't think to go for it. Another gutsy call was the call for the Steelers to throw on 3rd down with less than 2 minutes left and the Jets having no timeouts. A run allows Pitt to run the clock down and punt, leaving the Jets with under a minute and having to drive the length of the field. But a 1st down ended the game. I can't say I would have thrown, but I admire the guts of the call. Ben Roethlisberger completed the pass after scrambling right, converting for a 1st down and letting Pittsburgh kneel and run out the clock. It was one of the few times Big Ben had to make something happen with his arm. That's what happens when you let a team run like fucking hell all over you. Pittsburgh didn't have to challenge the Jets secondary in order to build their big lead. Rashard Mendenhall kept moving the sticks with his legs. It was a shocking domination of New York's #3 rush defense, and it will haunt the Jets all offseason. As for the Steelers, that's the #10 (Baltimore) and #3 (New York Jets) total defense that they eliminated this playoff season, and they were #2. They can beat anyone at any time.
Scott Norwood
Wide Right started it all.
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
2011 Conf. Finals What I Learned
Sunday, January 23, 2011
2011 Conf. Finals
We're down to the Final 4 if you will, and I have to say, any matchup of these 4 teams would make for a really compelling Super Bowl. If there was any doubt about what you need for a winning team, just look at these 4 defenses remaining. Even the Jets are still alive despite having a liability at QB, and it's all because of their defense. Here are our picks for the conference title games:
Green Bay @ Chicago
The betting public likes Green Bay. The pundits like Green Bay. I think God likes Green Bay. The entire universe likes the Green Bay Packers to go into Soldier Field and knock off the Chicago Bears. They're more than a field goal favorite on the road at the #2 team in the conference! Think about that for a second. It's hard to disrespect the Bears or love the Packers any more than picking GB to win on the road by more than 3 points. The overwhelming cheese love reminded me and Jason of two different recent scenarios, neither of which worked out for the road team. He thinks this sets up like the Pack visiting Arizona in the Wild Card round just last year. There was much love for GB as a sleeper to go through the NFC last season as the playoffs began, and you could find the Pack as a 1-point favorite in some sportsbooks at Arizona. They lost despite scoring 45 points. I am reminded of the New Orleans Saints in 2007 being a 2-point fav at Chicago in the NFC title game because no one wanted to believe that Rex Grossman and Lovie Smith could make it to the Super Bowl, and lo and behold, they did just that. Now it's Lovie and Jay Cutler being hated on, but I don't necessarily think it's unwarranted. As I've said many times this season, I don't think the Bears are nearly as good as their record. But I do think they're good enough to beat the Packers in a Soldier Field atmosphere the likes of which they've never experienced. I admit that there are several factors that I'm ignoring in order to take Chicago. There's GB's Aaron Rodgers playing as good as any QB in the game right now. There's the Bears getting a break in their 1st playoff game this year, playing a glorified scrimmage against a bad Seattle squad, which is not a good way to warm up for Green Bay. And there's the overdue appearance of a blown coverage by the Bears secondary allowing a WR to be wide open for a long TD catch, which they're good for at least once every playoff season. I call it their Cover-0. It seems like they call it on purpose sometimes, it's such a bad gaffe. I can see Brian Urlacher calling the defensive signals, looking at Greg Jennings and furiously waving his arms and pointing at him while calling for the Cover-0: "Don't cover him! Don't cover him! No! No! No! No!!" Despite all that, I am picking the Bears to win late because their defense has kept Rodgers relatively contained in their 2 earlier games. We all know that the Pack had trouble moving the ball in their 10-3 win over Chicago in Week 17. But looking back at their loss at Chicago in Week 3, it's interesting to note that of Rodgers' 34 completions and 316 yards, 9 of those catches and 115 of those yards went to a man who many thought would be a huge factor for the Packers as they marched through the NFC this season, TE JerMichael Finley, who won't be out there today. His absence combined with the Bears' defensive intensity and the Soldier Field crowd lead me to take Chicago to go to the Super Bowl for the 2nd time under Lovie Smith. For the record, Jason thinks Green Bay will win another tight battle, but by 3 points or less, hence his picking of Chicago to cover the number. Jason chuckled at the thought of a 6-seed being such a heavy favorite at the 2-seed, and I have to agree. But then again, I'm 1-7 in the playoffs ATS, so what the fuck do I know. My X-factor: Bears CB Charles Tillman. He's been a victim of the Cover-0 many times throughout the years, but he's also caught up to many receivers and stripped the pigskin, and turnovers will prove very costly in what should be a close contest.
My Pick: Chicago 19-16
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh
The Jets are now 8-2 on the road this season counting the playoffs, and one of those wins came in Week 15 at Pittsburgh, who the Jets had never beaten in the Steel City prior to that win. They were able to force Ben Roethlisberger into a lot of incompletions in that game and no INTs but 3 sacks and a lost fumble. I cited a big problem for Pittsburgh in this game in my What I Learned column. They were missing SS Troy Polamalu, and the Jets kept making big plays with QB Mark Sanchez by rolling him out on bootlegs for 1st-down runs, which I thought wouldn't happen if Troy were around. Well, Troy's around today, Mark. Good luck. Seriously, what do the "experts" see in Sanchez that make them place this guy on such a pedestal? I heard many people rank the 4 remaining QBs this week, and almost all of them put Sanchez 3rd ahead of Cutler because Sanchez has won 4 playoff games. News flash: QB wins is the most retarded stat in all of sports. The offense theoretically is on the field half the time, and sometimes less than that. So why does the QB get a "win"? Why not the middle LB? He quarterbacks the defense, and they have as much to do with a win as the offense. Actually, in the Jets' case, the defense has way more to do with the win than the offense. I'll try to not completely crush Sanchez today because he hasn't been atrocious on every single throw this postseason. But folks, he's not very good. Just watch him. He's not very good. He airmailed a bunch of throws in Indy, and he was merely adequate last week in Foxboro. And in this big win at Pittsburgh a few weeks ago? 19-29-170, and his only TD was running on the previously mentioned bootleg. That's not very good. I cannot pick a team to go to the Super Bowl with a QB who's not very good, not when they're playing against a team that's very good in every phase of the game. Jason agrees with me about Sanchez, but he's seduced by the Jets and what they've done so far in the playoffs, which I admit is pretty fucking impressive. Jason feels that this will be close just like the GB-Chi game, and he's going with the double whammy of picking two underdogs to cover today but not to win. He says this feels like 16-13 Steelers or something like that. I can see that, but the Pit-Bal game last week felt close, and it was, all the way up until a long bomb by Big Ben put Pittsburgh in position to win by a TD and cover the spread. The only thing stopping that from happening again today? Big Ben holding on to the damn football too long again. Let the rock go, Ben. For the sake of me having a chance to beat Jason in the Super Bowl pick in two weeks and earn a tie for the season, which won't happen if the Steelers don't cover today, let the motherfucking rock go!!! My X-factor: Steelers WR Hines Ward. Not just for his obvious value as a possession receiver keeping the 1st downs coming, but for his hardcore blocking of any defender trying to get to his teammates when they have the ball.
My Pick: Pittsburgh 24-14
| Fav | Spread | Dog | Dre | Jay |
| GB (12-6) | 3½ | CHI (12-5) | Chi | Chi | ||
| PIT (13-4) | 4 | NYJ (13-5) | Pit | NY |
Green Bay @ Chicago
The betting public likes Green Bay. The pundits like Green Bay. I think God likes Green Bay. The entire universe likes the Green Bay Packers to go into Soldier Field and knock off the Chicago Bears. They're more than a field goal favorite on the road at the #2 team in the conference! Think about that for a second. It's hard to disrespect the Bears or love the Packers any more than picking GB to win on the road by more than 3 points. The overwhelming cheese love reminded me and Jason of two different recent scenarios, neither of which worked out for the road team. He thinks this sets up like the Pack visiting Arizona in the Wild Card round just last year. There was much love for GB as a sleeper to go through the NFC last season as the playoffs began, and you could find the Pack as a 1-point favorite in some sportsbooks at Arizona. They lost despite scoring 45 points. I am reminded of the New Orleans Saints in 2007 being a 2-point fav at Chicago in the NFC title game because no one wanted to believe that Rex Grossman and Lovie Smith could make it to the Super Bowl, and lo and behold, they did just that. Now it's Lovie and Jay Cutler being hated on, but I don't necessarily think it's unwarranted. As I've said many times this season, I don't think the Bears are nearly as good as their record. But I do think they're good enough to beat the Packers in a Soldier Field atmosphere the likes of which they've never experienced. I admit that there are several factors that I'm ignoring in order to take Chicago. There's GB's Aaron Rodgers playing as good as any QB in the game right now. There's the Bears getting a break in their 1st playoff game this year, playing a glorified scrimmage against a bad Seattle squad, which is not a good way to warm up for Green Bay. And there's the overdue appearance of a blown coverage by the Bears secondary allowing a WR to be wide open for a long TD catch, which they're good for at least once every playoff season. I call it their Cover-0. It seems like they call it on purpose sometimes, it's such a bad gaffe. I can see Brian Urlacher calling the defensive signals, looking at Greg Jennings and furiously waving his arms and pointing at him while calling for the Cover-0: "Don't cover him! Don't cover him! No! No! No! No!!" Despite all that, I am picking the Bears to win late because their defense has kept Rodgers relatively contained in their 2 earlier games. We all know that the Pack had trouble moving the ball in their 10-3 win over Chicago in Week 17. But looking back at their loss at Chicago in Week 3, it's interesting to note that of Rodgers' 34 completions and 316 yards, 9 of those catches and 115 of those yards went to a man who many thought would be a huge factor for the Packers as they marched through the NFC this season, TE JerMichael Finley, who won't be out there today. His absence combined with the Bears' defensive intensity and the Soldier Field crowd lead me to take Chicago to go to the Super Bowl for the 2nd time under Lovie Smith. For the record, Jason thinks Green Bay will win another tight battle, but by 3 points or less, hence his picking of Chicago to cover the number. Jason chuckled at the thought of a 6-seed being such a heavy favorite at the 2-seed, and I have to agree. But then again, I'm 1-7 in the playoffs ATS, so what the fuck do I know. My X-factor: Bears CB Charles Tillman. He's been a victim of the Cover-0 many times throughout the years, but he's also caught up to many receivers and stripped the pigskin, and turnovers will prove very costly in what should be a close contest.
My Pick: Chicago 19-16
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh
The Jets are now 8-2 on the road this season counting the playoffs, and one of those wins came in Week 15 at Pittsburgh, who the Jets had never beaten in the Steel City prior to that win. They were able to force Ben Roethlisberger into a lot of incompletions in that game and no INTs but 3 sacks and a lost fumble. I cited a big problem for Pittsburgh in this game in my What I Learned column. They were missing SS Troy Polamalu, and the Jets kept making big plays with QB Mark Sanchez by rolling him out on bootlegs for 1st-down runs, which I thought wouldn't happen if Troy were around. Well, Troy's around today, Mark. Good luck. Seriously, what do the "experts" see in Sanchez that make them place this guy on such a pedestal? I heard many people rank the 4 remaining QBs this week, and almost all of them put Sanchez 3rd ahead of Cutler because Sanchez has won 4 playoff games. News flash: QB wins is the most retarded stat in all of sports. The offense theoretically is on the field half the time, and sometimes less than that. So why does the QB get a "win"? Why not the middle LB? He quarterbacks the defense, and they have as much to do with a win as the offense. Actually, in the Jets' case, the defense has way more to do with the win than the offense. I'll try to not completely crush Sanchez today because he hasn't been atrocious on every single throw this postseason. But folks, he's not very good. Just watch him. He's not very good. He airmailed a bunch of throws in Indy, and he was merely adequate last week in Foxboro. And in this big win at Pittsburgh a few weeks ago? 19-29-170, and his only TD was running on the previously mentioned bootleg. That's not very good. I cannot pick a team to go to the Super Bowl with a QB who's not very good, not when they're playing against a team that's very good in every phase of the game. Jason agrees with me about Sanchez, but he's seduced by the Jets and what they've done so far in the playoffs, which I admit is pretty fucking impressive. Jason feels that this will be close just like the GB-Chi game, and he's going with the double whammy of picking two underdogs to cover today but not to win. He says this feels like 16-13 Steelers or something like that. I can see that, but the Pit-Bal game last week felt close, and it was, all the way up until a long bomb by Big Ben put Pittsburgh in position to win by a TD and cover the spread. The only thing stopping that from happening again today? Big Ben holding on to the damn football too long again. Let the rock go, Ben. For the sake of me having a chance to beat Jason in the Super Bowl pick in two weeks and earn a tie for the season, which won't happen if the Steelers don't cover today, let the motherfucking rock go!!! My X-factor: Steelers WR Hines Ward. Not just for his obvious value as a possession receiver keeping the 1st downs coming, but for his hardcore blocking of any defender trying to get to his teammates when they have the ball.
My Pick: Pittsburgh 24-14
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Division Round ATS Recap: Disaster!
Nothing good to say about a combined 1-7 weekend of picks ATS, except: at least the 1 was mine!
- Steelers 31, Ravens 24 - Both losers - It's easy to blame another wave of silly officiating for Pittsburgh's continued postseason success, but as bad as some of the calls (or non calls) were in this game, the reality remains that the Ravens had several chances to win this game, and literally dropped the ball. Anquan Boldin, the big off season acquisition for Baltimore, had a touchdown bounce off his chest. T.J. Houshmanzilli then dropped the last gasp 4th down pass to seal the deal. Gotta make those plays if you want to win in a hostile environment in January. Sorry, Baltimore, you just didn't cut it.
- Packers 48, Falcons 21 - Jason winner, Dre loser - I trusted the Falcons much more in a close game, but had a feeling the Pack had the ability to blow this one up. They did just that. Aaron Rodgers was near flawless, while Matt Ryan "Iced" his own team with two killer picks late in the 2nd quarter that helped Green Bay to a 14 point halftime lead. Once the Packers took the first posession of the 2nd half and scored a touchdown, the game was all but over. Atlanta made it interesting for a minute or two in the 4th quarter, but Brian Finneran recovered an onside kick about 6 inches short of 10 yards, and that was that.
- Bears 35, Seahawks 24 - Both losers - The Bears blew Seattle out early and then put it on cruise control in the snow, letting the Hawks almost come back to cover. The game was never as close as the final indicated, setting up a playoff matchup the NFL hasn't seen in 40 years, between possibly it's two best rivals (no, not Rex Ryan vs. whoever the Jets play that week).
- Jets 28, Patriots 21 - Both losers - Count me among the shocked here. Tom Brady played about the worst game I've seen him play since the Super Bowl loss to the Giants, or the Jets focused all their "hate" into a defensive performance worthy of a playoff upset. Either way, with nobody left to hate, what will the Jets manufacture to motivate themselves this Sunday on the road at Pittsburgh?
Playoff recap: Division Round games worth 3 points. Regular season ended in a tie.
Jason 1-3 (3pts + 8 points from Wild Card Round) = 11 points
Dre 0-4 (Goose egg + 2 points from Wild Card Round) = 2 points
With 13 possible points left, Dre is still in it!
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
2011 Conf. Semis What I Learned
- I suck at this.
- Baltimore sucked at staying poised. They got a couple of turnovers off of Pittsburgh, including the classic Ben Roethlisberger move of holding on to the ball too damn long and triple-pumping and getting stripped for a Ravens TD. Then they took their 2-TD lead into the 3rd quarter and gave the ball to the Steelers 3 times. The finish is what people will remember, with Roethlisberger hitting Antonio Brown on a 3rd-down Hail Mary to set up the game-winning TD. But Baltimore had so many chances. Those turnovers were bad enough, but there were some dropped passes in very important situations that had no business being dropped. As much as Pittsburgh took that game away, Baltimore gave it up. And I still maintain that Big Ben holding the damn ball too long is going to cost his very good team before it's all over, maybe even this weekend against the Jets.
- In Atlanta, one team and QB looked ready for playoff action, and the other team was the Atlanta Falcons. Nothing to break down here. Green Bay is playing their asses off on both sides of the ball, and Atlanta wasn't nearly ready for the Packers. Aaron Rodgers was even more fantastic than when he nearly beat the Falcons singlehandedly in the regular season. The Atlanta DBs will be seeing Rodgers in their sleep for a long time. There aren't much better examples in the history of football of what a hot team can do when it gets on a roll than what Green Bay did to Atlanta. If the Falcons thought they had a chance of a comeback, the 2nd-quarter pick-6 by Tramon Williams took care of that. They make for a very tempting pick on the road at Chicago even though you're gonna have to give a FG.
- Not much to break down from Seattle's pounding by the Bears either, except that I have to say that I still observe some things out of Chicago that make me think they're just not that damn good. They're not exactly wearing down the opposition with the running game, they're just controlling time of possession by sticking to the run even when it's middling. Jay Cutler still tries to force some passes into spots that he shouldn't be throwing. He threw a ball right to a DB in the end zone that was dropped. And it may have been garbage time after the Bears gained a 28-0 lead, but if their defense is so ferocious, they shouldn't have allowed the Seahawks the yardage and points that they gave up. What do they think the Packers are going to do when they come in to Soldier Field? I don't even want to know what the Bears were thinking when they had RB Matt Forte throw a pass in the 2nd half which was easily intercepted. All that game proved was that the Bears are good enough to cover a double-digit spread against a team with a losing record. Let's see what they got in the rubber match against Green Bay.
- And the New York Jets keep on stepping. They just keep marching through the AFC playoffs, in lock step...alright, I better stop with the foot jokes before Bill Belichick benches me. The lesson learned in this game was that any time you combine talented defensive pieces with a talented mind like Rex Ryan and add some humiliation such as a 42-point ass whoopin', the tables can get turned in a hurry. The New England opening drive was looking like another sizzling Patriot series until Tom Brady threw a bad INT way over his receiver's head. The Pats did not respond well to the Jets zone coverage afterwards, to say the least. I don't know how many times this year Brady had 16 incompletions, but I'm guessing not many. And most of his 5 sacks were coverage sacks. He looked dazed and confused most of the day. There were some NE drops as well, but mostly the Jets got to his throws and broke up the plays. I'm still not impressed with NY QB Mark Sanchez, but their offensive game plan is obvious yet hard to stop--they run until you stop it, then they allow Sanchez to surprise the D with deep throws when he drops back. It can be a little confusing, I guess. Usually when a coach doesn't trust the QB, he doesn't let him make risky passes when he lets him throw, but Sanchez likes intermediate to deep routes, not dink and doink action. So when he's throwing, you gotta be on your toes. Yep, I made another bad foot joke. But seriously, that Pats offense ain't made for comebacks, as their slow, clock-chewing 4th-quarter drive showed. Brady, like Peyton Manning last week, seemed content to try to fool the Jets with a lot of run calls, and I'm fairly certain that both QBs can get out of run calls and audible to passes any time they want. But when a pass calls for deciphering a tough zone D, maybe Brady isn't as confident as he seems. All that yelling and "leadership" Tom was doing against the Lions and Bills didn't work out against Gang Green. And the loudest, most classless team plays for the conference title yet again.
Saturday, January 15, 2011
2011 Conf. Semis
Because I HATE with a passion the term "Divisional Round." Uh, those were division champs playing last week against the Wild Card teams, right??
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
Break out the ice packs and Excedrin when these two teams go at it. And that's just for those watching this carnage. Ravens RB Ray Rice came down with some kind of illness in the last day or so, and my first instinct was to assume that someone in the Pittsburgh hotel sneezed into Rice's room service food. But then I looked at Rice's numbers in the 2 games against the Steelers in the regular season: 8 carries for a whopping 20 yards in Week 4, and 9 for 32 in Week 13. Fuck it, I just got sick. But it's a sign of how hard and close these two play each other that I am acknowledging that Rice will do nothing in this game, and I said Baltimore goes nowhere without Rice playing well, and I'm still taking the Ravens to cover. They just stay within 3 points of each other all the time no matter who comes out on top. Both games this season were 3-point outcomes, so now the spread's 3 and a hook? Don't think so. Jason likes the Ravens to win outright, and I could see that. Some crazy INT by Ed Reed or sack/fumble by Ray Lewis to win the game? Easy to imagine. I'll call a Steelers comeback in the last minute with a Big Ben drive down the field to win by a FG. My X-factor: Steelers LB LaMarr Woodley. Clearly, Pitt's D is a different animal when SS Troy Polamalu is playing, as he will today. But by focusing on the Steelers' secondary, Joe Flacco and the Ravens may miss out on that incredible linebacking crew and allow them to create chaos at the line of scrimmage. Woodley has a knack for getting in the backfield when it counts--he's played in 4 playoff games in his career, and amazingly, he has 2 sacks in each of those games.
My Pick: Pittsburgh 23-21
Green Bay @ Atlanta
My head is still spinning from the pretzel logic Jason tried to use to justify his pick of the Pack tonight. Basically, he's going with Green Bay because Atlanta is his favorite team from childhood and he thinks he's guaranteed happiness either way if he goes with the Packers. He can have his team lose but get the pick right, or he can get the pick wrong but watch his squad advance to the conference finals. My one-word response to this: Huh?? It's the tortured logic of someone having to judge the team in his heart by using his brain, and we'll see how twisted I get when trying to explain how I'm judging my favorite team, the Bears, right after this pick. As for analysis of this one, the betting public is loving the Pack as the hot team, and this isn't just because of how good Green Bay is. Like Chicago, Atlanta hasn't been respected as an elite team despite their 13-3 record. Many experts seem to toss out the "Matty Ice just wins at home" line as if they think it's a big fluke that Falcons QB Matt Ryan has gone 20-2 at home in his pro career. I'm picking Atlanta because, dammit, winning NFL games at a .900 percentage under any circumstances is a skill, not a fluke. Atlanta just wins at home. They did it against the Packers in Week 12, and GB QB Aaron Rodgers had a huge day, throwing for 344 yards and also leading the team with 51 rushing yards. It still wasn't enough. The logic would be that GB has a much better chance with the emergence of a RB, James Starks, so that Rodgers doesn't have to do it all. That assumes that Rodgers can throw for at least 344 again, and it assumes that Ryan won't step up his game to do more than the 198 yards he threw for in that win. The Falcons just know how to win. Atlanta will be missing their nickelback, but that's okay because the Packers' 3rd WR, James Jones, can't catch. My X-factor: Falcons TE Tony Gonzalez. Atlanta will need RB Michael Turner to balance the offense, but Ryan only has a couple of downfield weapons he can count on, and when Roddy White is covered, he's going to have to find the veteran TE Gonzalez on seam routes and jump balls to move the chains.
My Pick: Atlanta 27-23
Seattle @ Chicago
It's the team with a new offense and horrible blockers whose coach was going to be shitcanned if they had a bad season hosting the worst playoff team in NFL history. Those of you who know what's going to happen in this game, go to hell because you're full of it. Any prediction can be valid or invalid because no one knows. Even looking back to their Week 6 meeting, you can't be confident that the events of that day are a portent to this Sunday's action. Will the Bears run only 13 times as a team like they did that day? Unlikely, as coordinator Mike Martz has been much more willing to run in the 2nd half of the season. Plus, Seattle LB Lofa Tatupu is loopy with concussion symptoms, and if he doesn't go, running the ball will be that much more inviting. Will the Seahawks sack Jay Cutler 6 times again? Who knows? The Chicago offensive line has been better, but they're still not good, and they had a bad day in their last game against Green Bay. Will Mike Williams go off for 10 catches and 123 yards again? Maybe. Whatever we think of Seattle, he and Matt Hasselbeck have a connection, and the whole team has to be confident coming off that ass whooping of New Orleans and knowing that they already beat this team at Soldier Field. So with all of that said, Jason and I will both cop out and take Seattle to cover but not to win. But at least I'll dream up a goofy scenario for the cover: It will be the 1st overtime playoff game under the new rules, and after Seattle wins the coin toss and drives for what would have been the game-winning FG under regular rules, they kick off to Devin Hester, who runs it back to the house for a wild 3-point Bears win. If any aspect of that actually comes true, I'm playing the fucking lottery. My X-factor: Bears WR Earl Bennett. Cutler had about a million incompletions in the Week 6 game, and although he wasn't picked off at all, he needs somebody, anybody, to serve as a possession receiver and convert some 3rd-downs and keep drives alive. The other Bears WRs have bad hands or don't know what route to run, so it's up to Bennett to be that guy.
My Pick: Chicago 23-20, OT
New York Jets @ New England
It's all about Rex Ryan's feet vs. Bill Belichick's brain, right? I'll take Belichick's brain every time in that battle. Give the Jets all the credit you want for their early-season victory over the Pats, but remember that those same Pats went on to lose to Cleveland before finding their way and destroying everyone the last 2 months, including these same Jets 45-3 on Monday night in Week 13. Jets CB Antonio Cromartie's clever comments this week about Tom Brady--"He's an asshole. Fuck him."--may seem like something to ignore, but I think New York says everything they say for a reason, and I believe that Cromartie wants Brady to try to pick on him instead of the more revered CB, Darrelle Revis. In the Week 13 massacre, Revis was the man mostly covering WR Wes Welker, he of the 11 deadpan feet references in one press conference. So Welker must have been shut down like Reggie Wayne last week, right? Not exactly. Welker went for 80 yards on 7 catches and a TD. Any distracting of Brady and diversion off of the Patriots game plan would at least give the Jets a chance. But it won't work. New England is too good to be thrown off by the Jets and all their bluster. A great stat from Miami sports guy Dan Le Batard, who loves to tweak the Jets and their miserable fan base: There have been 18 previous occasions in which a team that beat another team by 30 points in the regular season meets that same team in the playoffs. I'll give you one guess as to how many times the losing team exacted revenge and won the playoff game. That's right, zero. That doesn't shed any light as to who will cover the spread, but Jason and I will pick the Pats because they're much the better team. My X-factor: Patriots TE Aaron Hernandez. The rookie missed the last few games with injury, but in the 2 NE-NYJ matchups this season, he was a huge factor downfield, racking up 152 yards and a TD. If the Jets pay too much attention to the other rookie TE, Rob Gronkowski, Hernandez will take advantage.
My Pick: New England 34-20
| Fav | Spread | Dog | Dre | Jay |
| Saturday | ||||||
| PIT (12-4) | 3½ | Bal (13-4) | Bal | Bal | ||
| Sat. Nite | ||||||
| ATL(13-3) | 1 | GB (11-6) | Atl | GB | ||
| Sunday | ||||||
| CHI(11-5) | 10 | Sea (8-9) | Sea | Sea | ||
| NE (14-2) | 9½ | NYJ (12-5) | NE | NE | ||
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
Break out the ice packs and Excedrin when these two teams go at it. And that's just for those watching this carnage. Ravens RB Ray Rice came down with some kind of illness in the last day or so, and my first instinct was to assume that someone in the Pittsburgh hotel sneezed into Rice's room service food. But then I looked at Rice's numbers in the 2 games against the Steelers in the regular season: 8 carries for a whopping 20 yards in Week 4, and 9 for 32 in Week 13. Fuck it, I just got sick. But it's a sign of how hard and close these two play each other that I am acknowledging that Rice will do nothing in this game, and I said Baltimore goes nowhere without Rice playing well, and I'm still taking the Ravens to cover. They just stay within 3 points of each other all the time no matter who comes out on top. Both games this season were 3-point outcomes, so now the spread's 3 and a hook? Don't think so. Jason likes the Ravens to win outright, and I could see that. Some crazy INT by Ed Reed or sack/fumble by Ray Lewis to win the game? Easy to imagine. I'll call a Steelers comeback in the last minute with a Big Ben drive down the field to win by a FG. My X-factor: Steelers LB LaMarr Woodley. Clearly, Pitt's D is a different animal when SS Troy Polamalu is playing, as he will today. But by focusing on the Steelers' secondary, Joe Flacco and the Ravens may miss out on that incredible linebacking crew and allow them to create chaos at the line of scrimmage. Woodley has a knack for getting in the backfield when it counts--he's played in 4 playoff games in his career, and amazingly, he has 2 sacks in each of those games.
My Pick: Pittsburgh 23-21
Green Bay @ Atlanta
My head is still spinning from the pretzel logic Jason tried to use to justify his pick of the Pack tonight. Basically, he's going with Green Bay because Atlanta is his favorite team from childhood and he thinks he's guaranteed happiness either way if he goes with the Packers. He can have his team lose but get the pick right, or he can get the pick wrong but watch his squad advance to the conference finals. My one-word response to this: Huh?? It's the tortured logic of someone having to judge the team in his heart by using his brain, and we'll see how twisted I get when trying to explain how I'm judging my favorite team, the Bears, right after this pick. As for analysis of this one, the betting public is loving the Pack as the hot team, and this isn't just because of how good Green Bay is. Like Chicago, Atlanta hasn't been respected as an elite team despite their 13-3 record. Many experts seem to toss out the "Matty Ice just wins at home" line as if they think it's a big fluke that Falcons QB Matt Ryan has gone 20-2 at home in his pro career. I'm picking Atlanta because, dammit, winning NFL games at a .900 percentage under any circumstances is a skill, not a fluke. Atlanta just wins at home. They did it against the Packers in Week 12, and GB QB Aaron Rodgers had a huge day, throwing for 344 yards and also leading the team with 51 rushing yards. It still wasn't enough. The logic would be that GB has a much better chance with the emergence of a RB, James Starks, so that Rodgers doesn't have to do it all. That assumes that Rodgers can throw for at least 344 again, and it assumes that Ryan won't step up his game to do more than the 198 yards he threw for in that win. The Falcons just know how to win. Atlanta will be missing their nickelback, but that's okay because the Packers' 3rd WR, James Jones, can't catch. My X-factor: Falcons TE Tony Gonzalez. Atlanta will need RB Michael Turner to balance the offense, but Ryan only has a couple of downfield weapons he can count on, and when Roddy White is covered, he's going to have to find the veteran TE Gonzalez on seam routes and jump balls to move the chains.
My Pick: Atlanta 27-23
Seattle @ Chicago
It's the team with a new offense and horrible blockers whose coach was going to be shitcanned if they had a bad season hosting the worst playoff team in NFL history. Those of you who know what's going to happen in this game, go to hell because you're full of it. Any prediction can be valid or invalid because no one knows. Even looking back to their Week 6 meeting, you can't be confident that the events of that day are a portent to this Sunday's action. Will the Bears run only 13 times as a team like they did that day? Unlikely, as coordinator Mike Martz has been much more willing to run in the 2nd half of the season. Plus, Seattle LB Lofa Tatupu is loopy with concussion symptoms, and if he doesn't go, running the ball will be that much more inviting. Will the Seahawks sack Jay Cutler 6 times again? Who knows? The Chicago offensive line has been better, but they're still not good, and they had a bad day in their last game against Green Bay. Will Mike Williams go off for 10 catches and 123 yards again? Maybe. Whatever we think of Seattle, he and Matt Hasselbeck have a connection, and the whole team has to be confident coming off that ass whooping of New Orleans and knowing that they already beat this team at Soldier Field. So with all of that said, Jason and I will both cop out and take Seattle to cover but not to win. But at least I'll dream up a goofy scenario for the cover: It will be the 1st overtime playoff game under the new rules, and after Seattle wins the coin toss and drives for what would have been the game-winning FG under regular rules, they kick off to Devin Hester, who runs it back to the house for a wild 3-point Bears win. If any aspect of that actually comes true, I'm playing the fucking lottery. My X-factor: Bears WR Earl Bennett. Cutler had about a million incompletions in the Week 6 game, and although he wasn't picked off at all, he needs somebody, anybody, to serve as a possession receiver and convert some 3rd-downs and keep drives alive. The other Bears WRs have bad hands or don't know what route to run, so it's up to Bennett to be that guy.
My Pick: Chicago 23-20, OT
New York Jets @ New England
It's all about Rex Ryan's feet vs. Bill Belichick's brain, right? I'll take Belichick's brain every time in that battle. Give the Jets all the credit you want for their early-season victory over the Pats, but remember that those same Pats went on to lose to Cleveland before finding their way and destroying everyone the last 2 months, including these same Jets 45-3 on Monday night in Week 13. Jets CB Antonio Cromartie's clever comments this week about Tom Brady--"He's an asshole. Fuck him."--may seem like something to ignore, but I think New York says everything they say for a reason, and I believe that Cromartie wants Brady to try to pick on him instead of the more revered CB, Darrelle Revis. In the Week 13 massacre, Revis was the man mostly covering WR Wes Welker, he of the 11 deadpan feet references in one press conference. So Welker must have been shut down like Reggie Wayne last week, right? Not exactly. Welker went for 80 yards on 7 catches and a TD. Any distracting of Brady and diversion off of the Patriots game plan would at least give the Jets a chance. But it won't work. New England is too good to be thrown off by the Jets and all their bluster. A great stat from Miami sports guy Dan Le Batard, who loves to tweak the Jets and their miserable fan base: There have been 18 previous occasions in which a team that beat another team by 30 points in the regular season meets that same team in the playoffs. I'll give you one guess as to how many times the losing team exacted revenge and won the playoff game. That's right, zero. That doesn't shed any light as to who will cover the spread, but Jason and I will pick the Pats because they're much the better team. My X-factor: Patriots TE Aaron Hernandez. The rookie missed the last few games with injury, but in the 2 NE-NYJ matchups this season, he was a huge factor downfield, racking up 152 yards and a TD. If the Jets pay too much attention to the other rookie TE, Rob Gronkowski, Hernandez will take advantage.
My Pick: New England 34-20
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
NFL Wild Card '11 What I Learned
- The Saints ain't what they were last year. At least the defense isn't. The only story of the Seahawks-Saints game was the utter lack of defense by the champs. They made superstars out of over-the-hill guys like Matt Hasselbeck and Brandon Stokley, and they allowed Marshawn Lynch to emasculate them with one run. Drew Brees tried like hell to keep up, but he couldn't. And with that, score another one for the college coach rallying the guys and leading them to heights no one could have imagined. Before I laugh at the thought of the Hawks traveling to the Windy City next Sunday and continuing their dream journey, I can't ignore the fact that of their 7 measly wins, one of them was at Chicago. Can I rule them out for another one after how they played in this game?
- Peyton Manning may have to totally readjust his approach to football in order to succeed. He clearly allowed the New York Jets' D to dictate everything he did. He audibled out of passes on long 3rd downs, which are passing situations, and although sometimes those running plays that he checked to worked and they converted for 1st downs, they didn't work sometimes and the Colts were forced to end drives. And when Manning did throw, he all but refused to look Reggie Wayne's way, all because his best receiver was being guarded by CB Darrelle Revis. Look, Revis is very good when healthy. But by not throwing to Wayne almost the entire game, Manning seemed to be indicating that he didn't trust his best WR to make a play when he needed to. The season seemed to be about trust for Indianapolis, how much Manning had in guys who subsequently went down due to injury (Clark and Collie) and how much he didn't have in the weapons left over (White, perhaps Wayne). Simply put, if Manning thought his receivers were worthy, and if he thought he himself was that damn good, he would have attempted more than 26 passes, and the Colts may have won the game. I give almost no credit to the Jets and their garbage, overthrowing QB. But that shouldn't be a surprise, since I carry Peyton's water.
- The Chiefs did what I feared they would do when I picked them, which is unravel at the first sign of adversity. If Baltimore would have backed down and played scared after Jamaal Charles's TD run, maybe Kansas City could have built enough confidence to hold on to their lead and win the game. But once the Ravens started playing tougher defense and Joe Flacco started targeting Todd Heap and Ray Rice as his reliable pass catchers, the Chiefs lost their cool and couldn't recover. On one of Matt Cassel's picks, he held the ball forever and still drilled his throw right to the defender. That's called shitting your pants for the world to see. And the cheap shots throughout the 4th quarter after every whistle exposed KC as totally unprepared for the spotlight of playoff football. The coaches weren't ready either. Nine carries on the game for Charles?? Frustrating if he was struggling early and they didn't show confidence in him, completely mind-boggling in light of his 1st-quarter 41-yard sprint. Maybe the Chefs can cook up a better game plan next year with a new offensive coordinator.
- And not much to say about what the Packers did to the Eagles, except to say that it's a tribute to Michael Vick that he got no help from the running game and little help from his star WRs and seemed to be limping around the whole game that he still almost won. In fact, on the Eagles' final drive, Vick came out with a 28-yard crossing pass to DeSean Jackson that puts Philadelphia ahead if Jackson can break the last shoestring tackle and take it to the house. Then Vick wouldn't have had to force his last pass in the corner and have it picked off by Jason's X-factor, Tramon Williams. The Packers are as dangerous as any team in the NFC if they can continue to have a running game to balance their offense. I'd say that there isn't a chance in hell they win that game with Greg Jennings catching 1 ball for 8 yards if not for James Starks rushing as well as he did. And one more bouquet thrown Jason's way--he groaned at the mention of James Jones before the game, imploring him to catch a ball once in a while instead of dropping them. Sure enough, Jones dropped a sure TD that would have put GB up big before Philly started their comeback. Is there anything Jason didn't see coming with the exception of Seattle winning straight up?
Wild Card ATS Recap: Beast Mode!
Seahawks 41, Saints 36 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Surely, the most lopsided spread going into the weekend would turn out to be a Wild Card round classic. Much like the Packers headed to Arizona last year, expected to destroy the Cards en route to greater things, the Saints forgot to bring their A-game. Maybe they started to believe the press, that Seattle, the worst playoff team IN HISTORY (a little Bill Walton for ya there), was going to just roll over for the defending champs. A funny thing happened on the way to Qwest Field, namely the Saints left their defense on the plane. Playing as the ultimate Disrespect team, the Hawks saved their best game of the year for the champs, and Matt Hasselbeck looked like a much, much younger version of himself.
Everything looked ripe for the Saints to mount a stunning comeback. Then, this happened. There's not many times I see something in sports that truly stuns me. Not since the David Tyree helmet catch in the Super Bowl did I feel the exhilaration of knowing I was seeing an all-time great play. Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo castoff, underperformer, broke off the most amazing individual playoff effort I'd ever witnessed. If that run had been made at the end of a Super Bowl, Lynch would be remembered forever. This run will come close. Even Mike Mayock and Tom Hammond, relegated to second fiddle announcers, made the play exciting. Their announcing was pretty awful the rest of the game, but much like Lynch, they saved their best for "Beast Mode."
Jets 17, Colts 16 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Dre just couldn't see the writing on the wall this year with his Man-Crush Peyton Manning. This was probably the game of the weekend that I felt the best about, just knowing that the Jets were prime to upset the wounded and floundering Colts. The media started slurping Mark Sanchez immediately after the game, but his play hindered the Jets more than it helped. A true franchise QB would have delivered several death blows much earlier in the game than Sanchez did, and as much as I loved the Jets going into this game, I equally loathe them going to New England this upcoming week.
Ravens 30, Chiefs 7 - Jason winner, Dre loser - I'm wondering if a 911 call was placed somewhere between Chicago and Kansas City. Or maybe that bandwagon that Dre crashed had OnStar. Not satisfied with breaking down the Chefs bandwagon in Week 17, just as I managed to escape it, Dre decided he was going to drive it off the road, through the median, into oncoming traffic, and overturn it into a ditch. Jamaal Charles (or J-Chuck as I call him) gave Baltimore an early scare with a brilliant, and blazing fast, 40 yard TD run early. After that, the wheels came off the Chiefs offense. Matt Cassel threw for a woeful 70 yards. The Cheifs became pick and fumble happy. The Ravens D smelled blood in the water and delivered punishing blow after punishing blow. And for the true football fan: a rematch of Baltimore/Pittsburgh. That's gonna be a fun one to watch, folks.
Packers 21, Eagles 16 - Both winners - Expecting Mike Vick to come up big in a playoff game is asking a lot. Trust me, I'm a Falcons fan. On the other side, knocking on Aaron Rodgers for having never won a playoff game (he's only been in ONE) was equally unfair. Rodgers threw three touchdowns, but the Packers discovered something they'd lacked all season: a running game! James Starks (WHO?) ran for 120+ yards and looked like the anti-Brandon Jackson. He fought for the tough yards and gave Atlanta just enough game film to study to try to defense the newfound Packer running game. Should be an awesome game in Atlanta next week.
Here's how I rate the Division games, in terms of watchability:
- Ravens/Steelers - You hate football if you aren't excited about THIS game.
- Packers/Falcons - All the pub will be focused on the Rodgers/Ryan matchup, and for a change I'm on board with the press.
- Jets/Patriots - I'm Rex Ryan'd out, fully expecting a blowout.
- Seahawks/Bears - Dreadful, dreadful game. Seattle did win in Chicago this season, 23-20.
Playoff Recap: The season ended in a tie, so all that matters now is points. Two points are awarded for every Wild Card win.
Jason (4-0) 8 points - Shoulda gone to Vegas.
Dre (1-3) 2 points - Knows it's not gonna be good when I take lots of dogs.
Saturday, January 8, 2011
NFL Wild Card '11
I cannot express how happy I am when playoff time arrives every year. As short as the NFL season is comparatively when you consider the other major sports, it's still a very long time from preseason to playoffs. It's always a sort of nirvana to be parked on the couch or your favorite social spot watching football games that actually mean something. So, without further adieu, our picks for this Wild Card Weekend.
New Orleans @ Seattle
We must now pat ourselves on the back for predicting this scenario MANY, MANY months ago. From Jason's preview of the opening game of the season, Vikings vs. Saints, written on TUESDAY, SEPT. 7: "They're already screwing up overtime because Brett Favre decided to end another NFC championship game with a horrible interception. Thanks, Brett! All we need now is for the Vikings to finish 11-5 and miss the playoffs while the NFC West winner goes 7-9 and gets a 4 seed." From my preview of a Rams trip to New Orleans in Week 14, written on Sunday, Dec. 12: "St. Louis is right there contending for the rancid NFC West, and they could host the Saints in a 1st round game. And the line would still be New Orleans favored by 9 or 10 points." Are you kidding me?? You mean to tell me that we had, from Opening Weekend, the scenario painted of NFC West winner going 7-9 and being the first sub-.500 division champ, winning the #4 seed in their conference and hosting a playoff game against the Wild Card Saints, and being a 10-point underdog? Hot damn, we nailed that shit! The only thing missing is that it was the Seahawks that pulled off that feat and not the Rams. With that awesome prediction playing out, I feel compelled to take the Saints and give the 10 points since I called it several weeks ago. And Jason? He is taking the Seahawks "just because." I made sure that I correctly quoted him on his pick so that he's not misunderstood. He's taking Seattle because he has a feeling that some shit's gonna happen to give the Hawks the cover. That's it. My reasoning is equally simple but a little more tangible: Two awful run games cancel out, leaving a battle of aerial attacks, which should be dominated by Drew Brees and the defending champions. Brees went for 382 yards and 4 TDs against Seattle in Week 11, and there's no reason to think he won't put up similar numbers. My X-factor: Saints WR Lance Moore. Marques Colston can handle the underneath possession catches if he's healthy, and Devery Henderson is the over-the-top deep bomb threat, so it's up to Lance Moore to be consistently open to catch the 15 to 20-yard intermediate balls that capture the attention of the Seattle secondary, which will open up Henderson later in the game.
My Pick: New Orleans 27-13
New York Jets @ Indianapolis
Yes, it's my boy toy, Peyton Manning, and he's playing a team that he historically owns, including spanking them last year in the AFC title game. Of course I have to pick the Colts. And, it's the unbearable Rex Ryan and his pretty feet, and his overrated Jets squad. Jason believes that it's time for the Jets to step up and move past the Colts, and he hates how the Indy offense looked all year. Can't blame him there. But I can't overlook that the Jets are still counting on Mark Sanchez at QB to lead the way, which doesn't inspire confidence as far as I'm concerned, and that Manning and the Indy offense has looked much better the last few weeks. Nothing like your streak of playoff appearances being on the line to foster trust and belief in your corps of inexperienced receivers. Plus, the Jets looking less than impressive rushing the ball lately has coincided with a Colts commitment to stopping the run. My X-factor: Colts WR Blair White. Fair or not, his white ass is in the Austin Collie White Boy Role of running dig routes in the middle of the field in front of the Jets nickelbacks and safeties and catching the balls that Manning feels he can't deliver to Reggie Wayne or Pierre Garcon because they will be covered, respectively, by Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie's kids. Manning trusts TE Jacob Tamme to get open in space, and he trusted Collie, who's injured. White simply has to be Collie's replacement, or Indy is in trouble.
My Pick: Indianapolis 23-17
Baltimore @ Kansas City
I wouldn't dare pick the Chiefs after all the shit I've talked about how I don't believe in them, would I? Oh, yes I would. Inverse of the Saints-Seahawks game, neither of these passing games impresses me, so it's up to which rushing attack will control the ball and therefore the game, and I think it will be KC. I understand that the Ravens averaged out to 5th in rush defense for the year, but I cannot get those bad games they had out of my head. Fact is, that great Baltimore D gave up 144 yards to Peyton Hillis, and 120 yards to someone named Mike Goodson, and 100 to Arian Foster in that Monday night game they probably should have lost at Houston. And this is Jamaal Charles, who placed himself with the gods with his 6.2 YPC average on the ground. Only Jim F. Brown averaged more yards per carry in a season. It wouldn't be surprising if the inexperienced Chiefs were not up to the challenge of performing like that against Baltimore in their first playoff game in many a moon. But I like to crash bandwagons, and I'm ending the KC bandwagon by picking them here. Plus, as Jason points out, Thomas Jones is backing up Charles, and Jones + random team = playoff success. Just ask the Jets and Bears. Jason will take the veteran, been-there-done-that Ravens and their own dynamic back, Ray Rice. My X-factor: Chiefs DE Tamba Hali. The Ravens don't have much WR speed, but those veterans can get open if the Chiefs don't rush QB Joe Flacco. It's up to Hali to lead the charge into the Baltimore backfield and pressure Flacco into mistakes.
My Pick: Kansas City 24-14
Green Bay @ Philadelphia
Finally, a game Jason and I agree on. This one's pretty simple to break down--neither of us think Michael Vick is up for the challenge of playing a big game against a tough defense and not screwing up. And against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' explosive offense, you almost have to play a perfect game to keep up. Vick has been slowing down at a rapid rate over the last month or so. It's obvious to anyone watching his games that he's not as fast running in the open field, and he's much quicker to step out of bounds or drop down and end his run when he gets in traffic. A hesitant Vick is a sloppy Vick, so when his eyes start to dart around in the pocket and he's thinking about running, that ball starts getting loose in his hand, and the Pack will be more than happy to take it away from him. Jason isn't sure if Vick will be able to finish the game, and I wouldn't be surprised if Green Bay knocked him out, either. The Eagles started the season with Kevin Kolb at QB in losing to the Pack, and they may end it with Kolb on the field as they lose to the Pack if Clay Matthews and company have their way. My X-factor: Packers DB Charles Woodson. Green Bay experimented with blitzing Woodson a lot last week in their season-saving win over the Bears. But I don't think they'll do that very much against Philly because they knew that the way to beat the Bears was to bum-rush that shitty offensive line and force Jay Cutler to make quick decisions, which ain't his strong suit. I believe that the Packers will trust their d-line and linebackers to contain Vick and make him put the ball up for grabs. That makes Woodson and his ballhawking skills extremely valuable downfield, where DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin will be operating, trying to get open for big home run catches. Woodson has to spend time cozying up next to one of those WRs, or Vick will eventually hit a few of those long bombs.
My Pick: Green Bay 38-27
| Fav | Spread | Dog | Dre | Jay |
| Saturday | ||||||
| NO (11-5) | 10 | SEA (7-9) | NO | Sea | ||
| Sat. Nite | ||||||
| IND(10-6) | 2½ | NYJ (11-5) | Ind | NY | ||
| Sunday | ||||||
| Bal (12-4) | 3 | KC (10-6) | KC | Bal | ||
| PHI (10-6) | 2½ | GB (10-6) | GB | GB | ||
New Orleans @ Seattle
We must now pat ourselves on the back for predicting this scenario MANY, MANY months ago. From Jason's preview of the opening game of the season, Vikings vs. Saints, written on TUESDAY, SEPT. 7: "They're already screwing up overtime because Brett Favre decided to end another NFC championship game with a horrible interception. Thanks, Brett! All we need now is for the Vikings to finish 11-5 and miss the playoffs while the NFC West winner goes 7-9 and gets a 4 seed." From my preview of a Rams trip to New Orleans in Week 14, written on Sunday, Dec. 12: "St. Louis is right there contending for the rancid NFC West, and they could host the Saints in a 1st round game. And the line would still be New Orleans favored by 9 or 10 points." Are you kidding me?? You mean to tell me that we had, from Opening Weekend, the scenario painted of NFC West winner going 7-9 and being the first sub-.500 division champ, winning the #4 seed in their conference and hosting a playoff game against the Wild Card Saints, and being a 10-point underdog? Hot damn, we nailed that shit! The only thing missing is that it was the Seahawks that pulled off that feat and not the Rams. With that awesome prediction playing out, I feel compelled to take the Saints and give the 10 points since I called it several weeks ago. And Jason? He is taking the Seahawks "just because." I made sure that I correctly quoted him on his pick so that he's not misunderstood. He's taking Seattle because he has a feeling that some shit's gonna happen to give the Hawks the cover. That's it. My reasoning is equally simple but a little more tangible: Two awful run games cancel out, leaving a battle of aerial attacks, which should be dominated by Drew Brees and the defending champions. Brees went for 382 yards and 4 TDs against Seattle in Week 11, and there's no reason to think he won't put up similar numbers. My X-factor: Saints WR Lance Moore. Marques Colston can handle the underneath possession catches if he's healthy, and Devery Henderson is the over-the-top deep bomb threat, so it's up to Lance Moore to be consistently open to catch the 15 to 20-yard intermediate balls that capture the attention of the Seattle secondary, which will open up Henderson later in the game.
My Pick: New Orleans 27-13
New York Jets @ Indianapolis
Yes, it's my boy toy, Peyton Manning, and he's playing a team that he historically owns, including spanking them last year in the AFC title game. Of course I have to pick the Colts. And, it's the unbearable Rex Ryan and his pretty feet, and his overrated Jets squad. Jason believes that it's time for the Jets to step up and move past the Colts, and he hates how the Indy offense looked all year. Can't blame him there. But I can't overlook that the Jets are still counting on Mark Sanchez at QB to lead the way, which doesn't inspire confidence as far as I'm concerned, and that Manning and the Indy offense has looked much better the last few weeks. Nothing like your streak of playoff appearances being on the line to foster trust and belief in your corps of inexperienced receivers. Plus, the Jets looking less than impressive rushing the ball lately has coincided with a Colts commitment to stopping the run. My X-factor: Colts WR Blair White. Fair or not, his white ass is in the Austin Collie White Boy Role of running dig routes in the middle of the field in front of the Jets nickelbacks and safeties and catching the balls that Manning feels he can't deliver to Reggie Wayne or Pierre Garcon because they will be covered, respectively, by Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie's kids. Manning trusts TE Jacob Tamme to get open in space, and he trusted Collie, who's injured. White simply has to be Collie's replacement, or Indy is in trouble.
My Pick: Indianapolis 23-17
Baltimore @ Kansas City
I wouldn't dare pick the Chiefs after all the shit I've talked about how I don't believe in them, would I? Oh, yes I would. Inverse of the Saints-Seahawks game, neither of these passing games impresses me, so it's up to which rushing attack will control the ball and therefore the game, and I think it will be KC. I understand that the Ravens averaged out to 5th in rush defense for the year, but I cannot get those bad games they had out of my head. Fact is, that great Baltimore D gave up 144 yards to Peyton Hillis, and 120 yards to someone named Mike Goodson, and 100 to Arian Foster in that Monday night game they probably should have lost at Houston. And this is Jamaal Charles, who placed himself with the gods with his 6.2 YPC average on the ground. Only Jim F. Brown averaged more yards per carry in a season. It wouldn't be surprising if the inexperienced Chiefs were not up to the challenge of performing like that against Baltimore in their first playoff game in many a moon. But I like to crash bandwagons, and I'm ending the KC bandwagon by picking them here. Plus, as Jason points out, Thomas Jones is backing up Charles, and Jones + random team = playoff success. Just ask the Jets and Bears. Jason will take the veteran, been-there-done-that Ravens and their own dynamic back, Ray Rice. My X-factor: Chiefs DE Tamba Hali. The Ravens don't have much WR speed, but those veterans can get open if the Chiefs don't rush QB Joe Flacco. It's up to Hali to lead the charge into the Baltimore backfield and pressure Flacco into mistakes.
My Pick: Kansas City 24-14
Green Bay @ Philadelphia
Finally, a game Jason and I agree on. This one's pretty simple to break down--neither of us think Michael Vick is up for the challenge of playing a big game against a tough defense and not screwing up. And against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' explosive offense, you almost have to play a perfect game to keep up. Vick has been slowing down at a rapid rate over the last month or so. It's obvious to anyone watching his games that he's not as fast running in the open field, and he's much quicker to step out of bounds or drop down and end his run when he gets in traffic. A hesitant Vick is a sloppy Vick, so when his eyes start to dart around in the pocket and he's thinking about running, that ball starts getting loose in his hand, and the Pack will be more than happy to take it away from him. Jason isn't sure if Vick will be able to finish the game, and I wouldn't be surprised if Green Bay knocked him out, either. The Eagles started the season with Kevin Kolb at QB in losing to the Pack, and they may end it with Kolb on the field as they lose to the Pack if Clay Matthews and company have their way. My X-factor: Packers DB Charles Woodson. Green Bay experimented with blitzing Woodson a lot last week in their season-saving win over the Bears. But I don't think they'll do that very much against Philly because they knew that the way to beat the Bears was to bum-rush that shitty offensive line and force Jay Cutler to make quick decisions, which ain't his strong suit. I believe that the Packers will trust their d-line and linebackers to contain Vick and make him put the ball up for grabs. That makes Woodson and his ballhawking skills extremely valuable downfield, where DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin will be operating, trying to get open for big home run catches. Woodson has to spend time cozying up next to one of those WRs, or Vick will eventually hit a few of those long bombs.
My Pick: Green Bay 38-27
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
2010-11 What I Learned About Each Team In One Sentence
Cowboys--Tremendous WR talent will continue to be wasted without defensive upgrades.
Eagles--Will Vick keep getting mashed next year, or will Coach Reid go back to QB Musical Chairs?
Giants--Coach and QB lose composure under pressure, no return to the Super Bowl until that changes.
Redskins--Complete joke of a franchise from top to bottom with no improvement in sight.
Bears--If they ever find a GM to give Cutler some receivers and blockers, offense could keep up with talented defense.
Lions--Keep stockpiling high draft picks, and they may put it all together soon.
Packers--How good would offense be with an o-line and consistent running?
Vikings--Their choice this offseason is to find a decent QB or decide not to contend for the next five years.
Falcons--Are they ready to win it now, or will defensive shortcomings delay their ascent?
Panthers--Need offensive overhaul to allow them to complement good defense.
Saints--Champs can be inconsistent on offense, will need veteran D to make plays again to have a shot at repeat.
Buccaneers--Future's bright on offense, but will go nowhere without major upgrades on D-line and LB corps.
Cardinals--Like Vikings, either bring in McNabb or another decent signal caller or choose to suck hard for a long time.
Rams--46 sacks show where team strength is, but they can't contend without WRs.
49ers--Get a real coach and choose a fucking QB and then get back to me.
Seahawks--Worst playoff team evah isn't good at anything but isn't horrible either, making it nearly impossible to guess what their biggest need is.
Bills--Not a great squad, but biggest hole is clearly their league-worst rush defense.
Dolphins--How the fuck do you go 1-7 at home but 6-2 on the road???
Patriots--League's scariest offense has a young D growing up (league-best 4 pick-6s) and high draft picks coming.
Jets--Most entertaining organization will try to win with above-average defense and scared-shitless QB.
Ravens--They go absolutely nowhere unless Ray Rice is rushing like a housewife on Black Friday.
Bengals--Carson Palmer and Cedric Benson have lost their fastballs, no return to the playoffs unless those two positions are upgraded.
Browns--Think they have something at QB with Colt McCoy, but subpar pass attack only gets worse if RB Peyton Hillis doesn't repeat career year.
Steelers--Toughest defense in football may have to watch helplessly as QB Big Ben holds ball way too long and takes playoff hopes down with him.
Texans--New stud RB Arian Foster can't play in the secondary, so they can't contend until they improve league's worst pass defense.
Colts--Veteran squad can't be discounted as long as Peyton Manning is QB and Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney lead speed pass rush.
Jaguars--Looked like a high school team running option plays and trying to mask bad passing game and atrocious defense.
Titans--Probably need to shitcan QB Vince Young and coach Jeff Fisher and reboot the whole damn thing.
Broncos--It will take a while to dig out from Josh McDaniels and his reign of terror and horrible personnel decisions.
Chiefs--Raw talent on both sides of the ball could use a smarter head coach to realize its full potential.
Raiders--Need better WRs and stability at QB, but appear to be prepared to kick anyone's ass while running the ball for the next few years.
Chargers--Maybe they'll try to win from the start of the season in order to avoid having #1 offense and defense and missing the playoffs as they did this year.
Eagles--Will Vick keep getting mashed next year, or will Coach Reid go back to QB Musical Chairs?
Giants--Coach and QB lose composure under pressure, no return to the Super Bowl until that changes.
Redskins--Complete joke of a franchise from top to bottom with no improvement in sight.
Bears--If they ever find a GM to give Cutler some receivers and blockers, offense could keep up with talented defense.
Lions--Keep stockpiling high draft picks, and they may put it all together soon.
Packers--How good would offense be with an o-line and consistent running?
Vikings--Their choice this offseason is to find a decent QB or decide not to contend for the next five years.
Falcons--Are they ready to win it now, or will defensive shortcomings delay their ascent?
Panthers--Need offensive overhaul to allow them to complement good defense.
Saints--Champs can be inconsistent on offense, will need veteran D to make plays again to have a shot at repeat.
Buccaneers--Future's bright on offense, but will go nowhere without major upgrades on D-line and LB corps.
Cardinals--Like Vikings, either bring in McNabb or another decent signal caller or choose to suck hard for a long time.
Rams--46 sacks show where team strength is, but they can't contend without WRs.
49ers--Get a real coach and choose a fucking QB and then get back to me.
Seahawks--Worst playoff team evah isn't good at anything but isn't horrible either, making it nearly impossible to guess what their biggest need is.
Bills--Not a great squad, but biggest hole is clearly their league-worst rush defense.
Dolphins--How the fuck do you go 1-7 at home but 6-2 on the road???
Patriots--League's scariest offense has a young D growing up (league-best 4 pick-6s) and high draft picks coming.
Jets--Most entertaining organization will try to win with above-average defense and scared-shitless QB.
Ravens--They go absolutely nowhere unless Ray Rice is rushing like a housewife on Black Friday.
Bengals--Carson Palmer and Cedric Benson have lost their fastballs, no return to the playoffs unless those two positions are upgraded.
Browns--Think they have something at QB with Colt McCoy, but subpar pass attack only gets worse if RB Peyton Hillis doesn't repeat career year.
Steelers--Toughest defense in football may have to watch helplessly as QB Big Ben holds ball way too long and takes playoff hopes down with him.
Texans--New stud RB Arian Foster can't play in the secondary, so they can't contend until they improve league's worst pass defense.
Colts--Veteran squad can't be discounted as long as Peyton Manning is QB and Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney lead speed pass rush.
Jaguars--Looked like a high school team running option plays and trying to mask bad passing game and atrocious defense.
Titans--Probably need to shitcan QB Vince Young and coach Jeff Fisher and reboot the whole damn thing.
Broncos--It will take a while to dig out from Josh McDaniels and his reign of terror and horrible personnel decisions.
Chiefs--Raw talent on both sides of the ball could use a smarter head coach to realize its full potential.
Raiders--Need better WRs and stability at QB, but appear to be prepared to kick anyone's ass while running the ball for the next few years.
Chargers--Maybe they'll try to win from the start of the season in order to avoid having #1 offense and defense and missing the playoffs as they did this year.
Monday, January 3, 2011
Week 17 ATS Recap: Stalemate
I'm not sure if Dre and I have ever gone into the playoff portion of our picks dead even. Dre carried a one game lead going into the final week, and we differed this week on an astounding 11 picks. So of course, in a season as wacky as this one, that I would win 6 of them and literally make Dre's point system meaningless.
From here on out, the precentages are meaningless, and our picks will earn us points based on the playoff round, from 2 per game this upcoming weekend, to 5 points for the Super Bowl. Game on.
Week 17 is traditionally our Waterloo. It's been so bad in years past, we've competed against a dime in our picks. This year, we stuck it to Week 17. Take that!
From here on out, the precentages are meaningless, and our picks will earn us points based on the playoff round, from 2 per game this upcoming weekend, to 5 points for the Super Bowl. Game on.
Week 17 is traditionally our Waterloo. It's been so bad in years past, we've competed against a dime in our picks. This year, we stuck it to Week 17. Take that!
- Falcons 31, Panthers 10 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Atlanta secured the #1 seed in the NFC in fairly simple fashion, and the score was much closer than the actual matchup. I expected Carolina to be a little bit more feisty, or at least Atlanta to have a little bit of a hangover coming off a MNF loss to the Saints. Neither happened.
- Steelers 41, Browns 9 - Dre winner, Jason loser - With a chance to play spoiler and knock Pitt to a #5 seed, the Browns managed to only spoil one thing: their coaches job.
- Lions 20, Vikings 13 - Both winners - Brett Favre (hopefully) watched his career end from the sideline, and watched the Lions propel themselves into a third place finish. This means that Favre came back to watch a 2010 Vikings team finish in LAST PLACE. The Lions, at 6-10, are my pick to be the Houston Texans Memoral Preseason Chic Pick to make the playoffs next season.
- Raiders 31, Chiefs 10 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Yeah, Dre picked a great time to jump on the KC bandwagon. He managed to crash it just after I escaped from it. Maybe it's Oakland that will be the Houston Texans Memorial Preseason Chic Pick to make the playoffs next season. That Raiders squad is on to something with their punishing rushing attack.
- Patriots 38, Dolphins 7 - Jason winner, Dre loser - The Pats are just that much better than the rest of the AFC. If a team goes into Foxboro and bests New England in the playoffs, it will most likely come as a result of the Pats playing awful versus anything the visitor does to try to stop them. Playing for nothing, the Pats annihilated Miami. This is a scary team, especially if there is weather factoring into their home playoff games.
- Ravens 13, Bengals 7 - Jason winner, Dre loser - As the Steelers kept pouring it on Cleveland, you could almost see the Ravens letting up on the gas as the game rolled into the second half. Cincy turned the ball over five times, and yet the Ravens still managed to not cover the number. Carson Palmer even had two open receivers in the end zone on the last play of the game, but managed to do his best Carson Palmer impersonation and airmailed the ball over everyones heads.
- Buccaneers 23, Saints 13 - Jason winner, Dre loser - OK, I know I'm President of the Josh Freeman fan club, but I'm throwing my hat into the Raheem Morris for NFL Coach of the Year arena now. I saw an interesting stat that the Bucs are the first team to start 10 rookies and finish with a winning record. And even though Tampa techincally finished 8th in the conference standings, with a 10-6 mark, this is team that truly has righted the ship, and will do damage in 2011. I make fun of the Houston Memoral Preseason Chic Pick status, by where all the "experts" will say this is FINALLY the year that the Texans make the playoffs, I think we're seeing the real thing in Tampa. Sad that this team finished behind the Seattle Seahawks and New York Choking Giants for playoff consideration.
- Jets 38, Bills 7 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Made the pick Saturday night, found out Sunday morning that Ryan Fitzpatrick was inactive and that Brian Brohm would start. Didn't think to get a hold of Dre to change my pick. Shit.
- Packers 10, Bears 3- Jason winner, Dre loser - I knew the Pack would punch their ticket to the postseason, and I knew the Bears wouldn't make it easy. This was a dreadful game to watch, I didn't enjoy it like I typically would a defensive struggle like this was. Maybe it was the apprehension both teams showed on offense, but it was most likely that I had to listen to the Joe Buck/Troy Aikman announcing duo. WORST. IN. SPORTS.
- Colts 23, Titans 20 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Tennessee always plays the Colts tough, no matter how good either team is. Rinse and repeat.
- Giants 17, Redskins 14 - Both winners - Yeahhhhhh, backdoor cover baby!
- Texans 34, Jaguars 17 - Both winners - The Jags choked their way out of the postseason with three straight losses after being known as the First Place Jacksonville Jaguars. Houston didn't do enough in my opinion to keep their Chic Pick for 2011 postseason play status, so this one is up in the air now.
- Cowboys 14, Eagles 13 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Fuck you, StephenMcGee!
- Niners 38, Cardinals 14 - Both losers - I said it when I picked the game: who cares.
- Chargers 33, Broncos 28 - Both winners - San Diego, the Packers of the AFC, failed to do what Green Bay did: make the postseason. The Packers go in a a VERY dangerous 6-seed, something San Diego would have done as well. They took out some of those frustrations on Denver, but showed late why they aren't going to the playoffs by allowing a beaten Bronco team to get back into the game, seemimgly for no reason. Maybe next year, San Diego.
- Seahawks 16, Rams 6 - Dre winner, Jason loser - FUUUUUUUUUUCCCCCCCKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Jason 10-6
Dre 9-7
Both of us over .500 in Week 17. Both for the week and the season. We'll take it!
Sunday, January 2, 2011
2010 Week #17
Here are the flip-a-coin picks for the last week of this regular season.
No time for observations, we basically fell into our season-long preferences and biases, although I was shocked that Jason thinks Carolina will stay tight with his Falcons. I can't believe I picked the Chiefs, so they'll screw me over. And I want Seattle to win the division with a losing record just to embarrass the league. Next week, Jim Mora says: PLAYOFFS?!?!?
| Fav | Spread | Dog | Dre | Jay |
| ATL (12-3) | 14 | Car (2-13) | Atl | Car | ||
| Pit (11-4) | 5½ | CLE (5-10) | Pit | Cle | ||
| DET (5-10) | 3½ | Min (6-9) | Det | Det | ||
| KC (10-5) | 3½ | Oak (7-8) | KC | Oak | ||
| NE (13-2) | 5 | Mia (7-8) | Mia | NE | ||
| BAL (11-4) | 9½ | Cin (4-11) | Bal | Cin | ||
| NO (11-4) | 7 | TB (9-6) | NO | TB | ||
| NYJ (10-5) | 1 | Buf (4-11) | NY | Buf | ||
| GB (9-6) | 10 | Chi (11-4) | GB | Chi | ||
| IND (9-6) | 9½ | Tenn (6-9) | Ind | Tenn | ||
| NYG (9-6) | 3½ | WASH (6-9) | Wash | Wash | ||
| HOU(5-10) | 3 | Jack (8-7) | Hou | Hou | ||
| PHI (10-5) | 3 | Dal (5-10) | Dal | Phi | ||
| SF (5-10) | 6 | Ariz (5-10) | Ariz | Ariz | ||
| SD (8-7) | 3½ | DEN (4-11) | SD | SD | ||
| Sun. Nite | ||||||
| StL (7-8) | 3 | SEA (6-9) | Sea | StL | ||
No time for observations, we basically fell into our season-long preferences and biases, although I was shocked that Jason thinks Carolina will stay tight with his Falcons. I can't believe I picked the Chiefs, so they'll screw me over. And I want Seattle to win the division with a losing record just to embarrass the league. Next week, Jim Mora says: PLAYOFFS?!?!?
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