2011 Week #8

Here are the wild and wacky picks for Week 8.  Some of our selections are pretty out there.

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

NO (5-2)	13½	STL (0-6)			NO	NO
NYG (4-2)	9½	Mia (0-6)			NY	Mia
BAL (4-2)	12½	Ariz (1-5)			Ariz	Bal
CAR (2-5)	3½	Min (1-6)			Car	Car
TENN (3-3)	9	Ind (0-7)			Ind	Tenn
HOU (4-3)	9½	Jack (2-5)			Jack	Jack
Det (5-2)	3	DEN (2-4)			Det	Den
BUF (4-2)	4½	Wash (3-3)		Toronto, ONT	Buf	Buf
Cin (4-2)	1	SEA (2-4)			Cin	Cin
SF (5-1)	9	Cle (3-3)			Cle	SF
NE (5-1)	2½	PIT (5-2)			Pit	NE
	Sun. Nite
PHI (2-4)	3	Dal (3-3)			Dal	Dal
	Mon. Nite
SD (4-2)	3	KC (3-3)			KC	KC

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• Amidst our cracking ourselves up at our bad David Caruso CSI one-liner attempts, we barely broke down the games, which is why we're called In Much Less Detail.  So believe in our picks at your own risk.  We start in St. Louis, where I told you last week that the Lock of the Century of the Week would occur.  New Orleans is still putting up points on the Colts, except that game ended six days ago, and now it's the Rams' turn to get the snot pounded out of them with a replacement QB.  Saints squoosh.
• Jason is still feeling the scars of the Giants allowing Seattle to come into the New Meadowlands and not only cover the number, but win the fucking game.  So he'll take Miami to cover 9½, even though the Dolphins are my nominee for the first FedEx Mail-It-In Team™ of the season.  Yes, I think the Fins have quit even harder than the Colts, even after what Indy did last week in New Orleans.  At least Indy lost to a real team.  Jason doesn't believe in Eli Manning and the New York Giants to put it together long enough to cover against Miami, but I do.  The Giants off a bye should be feeling a little healthier as a unit and should roll the pathetic Dolphins.  But hey, don't fret, Miami fans, because this year, the FedEx Mail-It-In Team™ doesn't just get bragging rights, they also get to win the Suck 4 Luck Sweepstakes!
• The Ravens feel like a team that can't cover a big number to me, so I'm taking Larry Fitzgerald and Arizona to cover 12½ even though they're flying cross-country to face a Baltimore team that should be angry and fired up after their Monday night embarrassment.  Jason likes Baltimore to avenge the loss to Jacksonville.  But I can't believe in the Ravens again until QB Joe Flacco shows me a reason to believe in him.
• In the battle of rookie QBs, we have to take Cam Newton and Carolina over Cristian Ponder and Minnesota.  Sure, Adrian Peterson may run all over the Panthers, but Cam will just throw them back into the game, and outside of Arizona, the Vikings haven't stopped anyone through the air all year.
• Tennessee will bounce back and crush Indianapolis, according to Jason.  The Titans have to recover from that drubbing at the hands of Houston, especially with the Colts riding into town.  Did you see what the Saints did to the Colts last Sunday night?  No way Indy can be picked coming off of that whoopin', right?  Well, I beg to differ.  Tennessee has a major, major problem right now, and it's Chris Johnson.  He may be quitting on his team right before our eyes.  He got all that money in the offseason, and he may have contracted Ricky Watters Disease.  "For who?  For WHAT??" Watters famously said after he was questioned why he, a running back, didn't catch a pass in traffic and didn't seem to be playing as hard as he could.  Just like Chris Johnson.  I thought the Titans were frauds this year anyway after their hot start, and last week showed what happens when they play a motivated team.  Think the Colts aren't motivated after what they did Sunday night?  Give me Indy to cover, and to win.
•  Houston, meanwhile, may be 2-0 in their division, but they're only 4-3 overall and still missing their best player, WR Andre Johnson.  So we'll take the Jags and that horseshit passing attack to cover 9½ in Texas.  Maurice Jones-Drew may keep up on the ground with Arian Foster and Ben Tate.
• Jason has to believe in Jesus in Denver because he picked him up for his fantasy team, but I don't have to believe in him.  I said I'd consider taking Tim Tebow and the Broncos when they face bad rush defenses because Tebow is a glorified running back.  Well, Detroit has been a horrible rushing defense this season, but I'm still picking the Lions because they have the passing attack necessary to rack up quick points and smother a Tebow lead.  Detroit is 3-0 on the road this year, and Jesus may not feel so blessed if Ndamukong Suh gets to tee off on him on one of his scrambles.  Like the Blues Brothers, Tim may be on a mission from God, but I'm putting the band(wagon) back together and cheerleading the Lions for one more game.
• It's another home game for the Bills in Toronto, and to say they haven't had success in Canada is an understatement.  But we like the Bills against the Shanahan boyz because Jason still can't hear the name "John Beck" without breaking out in laughter.
• We liked Cincinnati a little bit in Seattle, but when I told Jason that Tarvaris Jackson may return for Seattle at QB, he liked Cincinnati even more.  Sounds like solid reasoning to me.  And remember--all-in on the under.
• Jason agonized over the Cleveland-San Francisco pick before taking the 49ers.  He didn't feel good about it, but Cleveland's offense is just so bad.  I'll take the Browns to cover 9 because SF may not score 9.  They have put up some points this year, I admit, but consider against who they've done it:  Week 1, 33 against a bad Seattle pass D...Week 2, 24 against a decent Dallas D...Week 3, Cincy holds them to 13...Week 4, 24 at Philly, and we all know how bad Philly's struggled defensively...Week 5, 48 on Tampa, who stinks...Week 6, 25 at a decent Detroit D.  Sorry, I'm not impressed.  Let's hold off on the Jim Harbaugh statues for a little while.  And remember--all-in on the under.
• The clear Game of the Week is New England taking their air show to Pittsburgh.  Jason likes the Pats to light it up on a Steelers D that hasn't been quite as strong as normal.  I also think Tom Brady and New England will put up lots of yards and points.  Problem is, so will Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers.  The difference should be the running games, and I will take Rashard Mendenhall and Pittsburgh over BenJarvis Green-Ellis and New England every time.
• Andy Reid and his Philadelphia Eagles have found a way to win all 12 times that they've played a game after a bye week.  Philly hosts Dallas on Sunday night after a bye week.  We both like Dallas. Why?  Jason says it's about time for someone to D up Michael Vick and knock him out of yet another game, and the rampaging Cowboys linebackers can do it.  I say it's all about RB DeMarco Murray coming off his big name-making performance last week going up against an Eagles rush defense that has gotten debacled all year long.  Plus, the Eagles have dealt with expectations and hype by going 0-2 at home.  Not good.
• We'll take the red-hot Chiefs over the Chargers at home on Monday night, although I have a hard time believing San Diego will go to Kansas City and lose two years in a row.  The Chargers' special teams isn't quite as horrendous as last year, so they can win if they stop punt and kickoff returns, which they didn't on Monday night in last year's opener.  But since this 3-point line smells kinda funky to me, I'll go with the underdogs to cover.  The real question will be if SD QB Philip Rivers can quit throwing the fucking football to the other team.  If he does, San Diego can hang with anyone.

Week 7 ATS Recap: Shocks, Cocks, and Jesus!

This weeks slate of games provided some shocking results, a kick to the groin, and a real resurrection of the Denver offense in the final 5 minutes of play. What looked like a pretty awful week of picks turned into a completely mediocre 6-6-1 effort from both Dre and I, but some pretty interesting football took place. A playoff push is starting to come into focus, as some formerly dead teams showed some life, and some strong starters showed some holes. This is why the NFL is so great: every game means something.

• Jets 27, Chargers 21 - Both losers - Philip Rivers seems to be regressing, while Total Fraud does just enough to keep the naysayers at bay. Plaxico Burress provided a shot in the arm (or leg?) to the Jets inept passing game, working his magic for 3 TDs (on 25 yards receiving, making him the Jerome Bettis of receiving.) Doubters of the Jets, including myself, can sit silent for another week, but I don't see championship caliber play coming out of the Meadowlands.


• Browns 6, Seahawks 3 - PUSH


• Falcons 23, Lions 16 - Both winners - Atlanta looks like their former selves, again making me wonder why they NEEDED Julio Jones and not a ton of defensive help? The Lions, after losing a tough game to the Niners, again didn't have the answer to a balanced offensive attack. The Falcons head into a bye with the arrow pointing up, while the Lions head to Denver to face Jesus. Could the Lion-O's be looking a three game losing streak?


• Panthers 33, Redskins 20 - Both winners - All too easy. John Beck did exactly what I thought he would do: try hard in a losing effort. It has to pain Mike Shanahan to watch Cam Newton, in his 7th start, look more competent than any QB on the Skins roster. I'm loving every minute of it.


• Bears 24, Bucs 18 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Mike Shanahan's former QB toy, Jay Cutler, screwed up less than his counterpart, Josh Freeman, as the two QB's combined for 6 picks. The difference maker for the Bears, again, was Matt Forte, who's playing himself into some serious coin. If it will be in Chicago remains to be seen.


• Jesus 18, Dolphins 15 - Both winners - Tim Tebow played about the worst 55 minutes of quarterback I'd ever seen. Then, with time winding down, the skies opened up, the water turned to wine, and Tebow unleashed a dizzying comeback complete with an onside recovery, lots of fist pumping, and some really weak throws. Somehow, those weak throws found their targets, including a lob pass on a screen that seemed like it was in the air for thirty seconds. The legend continues! Aaron Rodgers is on a bye for my fantasy team in week 8, so fuck it, I picked up Tebow! Teeeeeeeeeeeebooooooooooowwwwwwwwww


• Texans 41, Titans 7 - Both losers - Houston delivered a nice cup of Shut the Fuck Up to everyone talking about how wounded they were and how they were gonna get rolled by the Titans. Shutting up now.


• Steelers 32, Cardinals 20 - Both winners - So how's that Kevin Kolb trade working for you guys in the desert?


• Chiefs 28, Raiders 0 - Dre winner, Jason loser - If you add up the QB Rating of all three QBs to see action in this game, you get 77.9. That would barely be adequate for ONE starting quarterback in this league, and will usually result in a loss. The Raiders ran the ball effectively enough, even after the loss of Darren McFadden, but SIX Oakland interceptions, three by Kyle Boller and three more by Carson Palmer left the Raiders in a lurch. The Palmer trade will do one thing: it'll make the price the Falcons paid for Julio Jones look CHEAP!


• Packers 33, Vikings 27 - Both losers - We lost on the number, but I see in the Pack a team that is winning games it would normally lose. Everything went against them in this game: a hot start from the rookie QB, a relentless pass rush, the loud fans. All of that advantage disappears as soon as Aaron Rodgers takes the field. Rodgers is playing with accuracy and confidence that is rarely seen at the position. Even when playing from behind, he seems to have a "We got this" look on his face. The Pack took everything the Vikings had, and walked out 7-0, while the Vikes probably have shot their wad as they head to face Cam Newton and a better-than-thier-record Carolina team. Speaking of wads, whats with the gratuitous nut shot delivered by a Vikes scrub? Pretty weak stuff, there.


• Cowboys 34, Rams 7 - Both losers - Nothing cures your passing game's ills like a guy nobody has heard of running for 253 yards. Thats TWO HUNDRED AND FIFTY THREE. From DeMarco Murray. I just had to click onto another page to get the spelling of his name right. I was going to call him DeMiko Murray. The Rams are toast. How bad can you be to let THAT GUY go for 253? He might not have 253 yards rushing the rest of the season! I dare anyone to look at the Rams schedule right now and find me a win. Try it.


• Saints 62, Colts 7 - Both winners - Here's an amazing figure: the Colts lost by 55 points, yet only attempted 22 passes for the entire game. It's like they're not even trying anymore.


• Jaguars 12, Ravens 7 - Both losers - How I knew this pick was fucked: Dre was playing my wife in fantasy football. No really! Dre was losing by only 20 points going into the Monday Night Jags/Ravens matchup. He had two guys left to go: Ray Lewis and Joe Flaccid, I mean Flacco. Now see, Dre has never beaten my wife in three years of us all being in the same league. All he needed was 20 combined points from Flacco and Ray Ray. My wife won by 6. That's all you need to know about how Flacco and the Ravens fared in this game.

Seven weeks down, and I manage to stay one game above .500 for the season. Some miracles never cease.

2011 Week 7: What I Learned

•  Ah, Total Fraud pulls one out again.  Yes, now Mark Sanchez and the Jets can claim to have a real victory on their resume this year after somehow the San Diego Chargers collapsed and pissed away a large lead in New York.  The Bolts seemed to move the ball with ease when they had to early, and it wasn't Philip Rivers dominating with the pass.  It was a great mix of pass and run.  One tipped Rivers pass in the red zone that was intercepted by Darrelle Revis and ran back to the other red zone changed the momentum of the whole game.  Sanchize solved his red zone problems by finding Plaxico Burress three times, and Rex Ryan wins the war of words with Norv Turner.  Neither still has won any rings.
• I don't know about point spreads, but if you want to make money, bet the Browns and Seahawks unders to the max until further notice.
• Two real physical teams battled in Motown, and both managed to sound like whining pussies afterwards.  Atlanta's mad that Ndamukong Suh and some other Detroit d-linemen were making light of Falcons QB Matt Ryan lying prone on the field after a play.  Suh's mad at Atlanta's dirty tactics and says Ryan going down was "karma."  I'm wondering when did football players start getting their wittle feelings hurt so easily.  The Falcons adjusted to the contentious game much better than the Lions did.  They were quicker to call plays to get the ball out of the QB's hands faster, plus they have a real running game they can rely on to balance the attack.  If China Doll Matthew Stafford starts getting nicked up every game, the Lions' season is in the shitter.
• You know what Washington needs much, much more than a new quarterback?  Some new tacklers, pronto!  Oh my God, the Redskins were terrible trying to bring down any Panthers in the open field.  We know Cam Newton is a load, especially running an old-school option, but the Skins weren't tackling the running backs or the receivers, either.  That option with Cam coming at you has got to be Halloween frightful, and Steve Smith continues to be a beast.  And hey, John Beck looked pretty damn good, but he lost two big weapons during this game--RB Tim Hightower's season is over, and WR Santana Moss is out for the next month or two.  Rex or Beck, I don't like Washington's chances going forward.
• Speaking of beasts, Matt Forte is a fucking animal this year.  That London game between the Buccaneers and the Bears was marked by horrible throws from both QBs, and despite Jay Cutler looking much better than Josh Freeman overall, this could have gone either way.  The difference was undeniably Forte.  There's no chance Chicago wins this game and Tampa Bay loses if Tampa has Forte and Chicago has Earnest Graham or whatever scrubs the Bucs were trying to run out there.
• Hallelujah!  Time to praise Baby Jesus for pulling off another miracle!  I heard the stat that Tim Tebow now has as many 14-point deficit come-from-behind victories (2) as the great John Elway had in his whole damn career!  What else can it be but a miracle?  He has descended from the clouds and is wearing a blue #15 jersey!  He is the Son of God, He is our Savior, He...oh wait, the Miami radio commentator described it as "...the Dolphins find a new way to lose."  So maybe it's not all Tebow, maybe Miami blows harder than Vanessa Del Rio.  And the sad thing is, Miami found an offensive rhythm with Matt Moore, adjusting to the Bronco blitz and burning Denver with quick slants.  They did enough to win a game against a team without a QB who can actually get the ball down the field.  Well, for 55 minutes they did.  The Fins need to fire the entire coaching staff for allowing Tebow to run that 2-point conversion in with no resistance at all.  Hello--running's the only thing that ogre can do well.
• I guess Tennessee's defense was a paper champion racking up stats against weak competition.  Arian Foster, Ben Tate, Matt Schaub and the Houston Texans walked into Nashville and assaulted the Titans repeatedly until they were finished with them.  I mean, that should have been on Law & Order: SVU, it was such an anal mauling.  I'm very curious if this is Houston finding ways to adjust in the absence of Andre Johnson, or if it's the Titans beginning to completely fall apart and play under expectations, just like their highly paid RB, Chris Johnson.  You can overcome a huge, gaping hole in your offense like Johnson for only so long.
• Both Pittsburgh and Arizona's offenses did what they're good at.  Arizona's good at popping a decent run here and there and throwing the rock up for Larry Fitzgerald to make a play, and that's about all they got.  Pittsburgh's good at taking deep shots to Mike Wallace early and running the ball to maintain the lead.  That's why the Cardinals are the Cardinals, and the Steelers are the Steelers.
• Kyle Boller's deep ball sucked, Carson Palmer's quick throws sucked, and the Raiders, despite racking up some yardage on Kansas City, couldn't find their way onto the scoreboard.  Oakland's 322 net yards was actually more than the Chiefs' 300, so if Jason wants to call this a lucky win for me, he's certainly justified.  The Chiefs didn't look like world beaters, they just had an actual NFL QB playing for them, unlike the Silver & Black.  Matt Cassel threw for 50% completion with no TDs and 2 picks, and he shined compared to Boller and Palmer.  Three INTs for each QB?  Wow.
• Brian Robison and the Minnesota Vikings had some fight in 'em Sunday, much to the surprise of T.J. Lang and the Green Bay Packers.  The impact players on the Vikings showed up for three quarters, namely Adrian Peterson and Jared Allen, and Christian Ponder looked alright in his first start as Vikings QB.  Aaron Rodgers and his boys stayed calm and rallied for the win, but Minnesota can be intriguing the rest of the way.  Can the WRs perform like they did in this game, namely Michael Jenkins, who made Bernard Berrian so irrelevant that the Vikes cut him?  If Ponder can get production out of Jenkins and Percy Harvin, Minnesota suddenly looks dangerous as far as covering spreads the rest of the way.  Ponder won't have to face Charles Woodson in every game.
• My preview of Rams-Cowboys:  "Rams and Steven Jackson are running at a 4.4 yards per carry clip. They should be just as effective on the ground as Tashard Choice and DeMarco Murray."  Conclusion:  I'm a fucking retard, and I don't know what the fuck I'm talking about.
• Sunday night is what happens when a superior team is motivated coming off a bad loss and takes advantage of every single mismatch on the field.  Why weren't the Colts getting blown away like this when Peyton Manning was active, you may ask?  Simple--that small Indianapolis defense didn't have to be on the field all the time.  They're easy to wear down when they have to be out there as much as they have this year.  They have speed and energy when they take the field after a seven-minute Peyton TD drive.  Curtis Painter, not so much.  Meanwhile, the Saints get to go to St. Louis next week.  Yep, Lock of the Century.  Give 20 points, it won't be enough.
• Monday night is what happens when your QB is drunk.  Okay, I have zero knowledge of Baltimore QB Joe Flacco being under any kind of influence at Jacksonville, but some of his throws looked like he was impaired.  And in an absolutely inexcusable fit of stubbornness, the Ravens offensive coordinator had Flacco throw 38 times vs. 12 rushing attempts, and only 8 carries for Ray Rice the whole night!  Can't you see at some point that Flacco doesn't have it and needs to hand it off more?  137 yards on 38 pass attempts!  I know Baltimore doesn't have a stellar group of WRs, but that was plain pathetic.  I'll credit Jacksonville for showing up.  They brought defensive pressure, they stayed committed to the run, and they looked like the only team trying to play football.  They deserve the upset win.  And the Ravens deserve to doubt themselves when they play this badly.

Week 7 Records--Dre & Jay 6-6-1, .500
YTD Records--Dre 43-54-6, .443; Jay 49-48-6, .505

2011 Week #7

Well, I'm here and jumping back into the picks after a fabulous wedding weekend.  Like any dedicated football fan, I'm neglecting the wife already and making this posting of our picks after midnight while she sleeps alone in the bedroom.  And I have to work tomorrow!  But I couldn't bear the thought of not fully analyzing my picks before making them, so I'm making this week an ultra stat week!  Every one of my picks will have some useless stat to back it up.  Read 'em and weep below:

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

NYJ (3-3)	1	SD (4-1)			SD	SD
CLE (2-3)	3	Sea (2-3)			Sea	Cle
DET (5-1)	4	Atl (3-3)			Atl	Atl
CAR (1-5)	1	Wash (3-2)			Car	Car
Chi (3-3)	1	TB (4-2)		London, ENG	TB	Chi
Den (1-4)	1	MIA (0-5)			Den	Den
TENN (3-2)	3	Hou (3-3)			Tenn	Tenn
Pit (4-2)	3½	ARIZ (1-4)			Pit	Pit
OAK (4-2)	3½	KC (2-3)			KC	Oak
GB (6-0)	9½	MIN (1-5)			GB	GB
DAL (2-3)	13½	StL (0-5)			StL	StL
	Sun. Nite
NO (4-2)	14	Ind (0-6)			NO	NO
	Mon. Nite
Bal (4-1)	9	JACK (1-5)			Bal	Bal

Some of our picks and observations included:

• We both like a lot of the same teams this week, which is a recipe for disaster.  But like I said, I can back up all of my selections statistically.  We will both take the Bolts over Total Fraud and the Jets.  New York has no real wins.  They're 3-0 at home, but one was Dallas when Tony Romo threw the game to them, one was Jacksonville, and one was Miami.  LaDainian Tomlinson may provide a spark when he starts at RB for the Jets, but how much gas will he have at the end?  Useless Stat: San Diego, even while missing TE Antonio Gates much of the season, still averages 8.3 yards per passing attempt.  I guess that Philip Rivers guy is pretty good.  Oh, and Gates should return this week.
• Jason will go with Cleveland over Seattle in a "struggle" between two not-so-good teams.  Can't call them bad right now because they're both 2-3, but they're on the cusp of bad.  Jay just thinks Seattle is worse.  Hard to argue, especially with the Seahawks sending Charlie Whitehurst out at QB.  But think, can he be much worse than Tarvaris Jackson?  I'm taking the Hawks, and the key may be Browns CB Joe Haden.  If he gets over his balky knee and covers Sidney Rice, Whitehurst has few other weapons and Cleveland may be the smarter play.  But Haden didn't practice Friday, never a good sign, so I'll go with Seattle.  Useless Stat:  Peyton Hillis has led the Brownies to 3.3 yards per carry as a team, and he's not even playing, leaving Colt McCoy and the Browns passing game to carry the load at 5.5 yards per attempt.  Yuck.
• We're both going against America's Darlings, the Detroit Lions, and taking the Falcons for a big road win.  As I said last week, the Falcons needed to get back to what made them great last year, and that was pounding the rock with Michael Turner and setting up the passing attack to Roddy White.  Here comes Turner into the Motor City against a tired Lions D after they got the run-around last week vs. the Niners.  Uh oh.  Plus, I jumped on the Lions bandwagon last week and promptly crushed it.  Let's see if I killed it dead or if they can revive now that I'm doubting again.  Useless Stat:  It's Atlanta's 4.4 yards per carry against Detroit's 5.2 ypc given up.  I repeat:  Uh oh.
• Jason's reaction to John Beck getting the call at QB for Washington:  LOL.  Then he reconsidered and called this an Elvis Game, referred to in this post from last season.  It may be a trap because Carolina is 1-5 and not exactly a squad to be trusted to make the Shanahan Boys pay for playing musical chairs with the quarterbacks once again.  But we have to take the Panthers because the Redskins can't change horses after one bad Rex Grossman game and be successful, can they?  Useless Stat:  Washington may contain Cam Newton and the passing attack somewhat, but they aren't equipped to hold off Carolina on the ground.  The Skins are giving up 4.6 yards per rush, and Carolina is gaining 4.8 ypc.
• London Calling:  It's the Chicago Bears going to Great Britain to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a home game for TB.  Huh?  We don't feel very strong about it, but we differ on our selections.  Jason will take the Bears as they try to win games with as few pass attempts as possible, in order to not get QB Jay Cutler murdered.  Oh, and tell Mike Martz Jason said fuck him.  I'll take the Bucs because they've played in this dumbass London game before and at least have the experience.  They've been in London all week getting acclimated, while Chicago came over last night.  Maybe that will make all the difference.  Useless Stat:  Tampa does rank 14th in passing yards per game despite QB Josh Freeman having a subpar season.  So they're still committed to throwing, and the Bears safeties are always committed to letting the opponent throw.  Chicago ranks 25th in defense pass yards per game, giving up 7.4 yards per attempt.
• We'll go with Jesus to walk on water in Miami and lead the Broncos to victory.  Hey, as much as I bag on Tim Tebow and his inability to throw, I'm going to pick him in games where he doesn't have to throw to keep his team in the game and he can run on the opposition.  We all know Tebow is his own goal-line back, and the Dolphins have been very accommodating this year to anyone who wants to step into the end zone.  Plus, Miami can't win at home, and this particular home game will feel like a road game because of all the Tebow acolytes in attendance for U. of Florida Appreciation Day.  Jason wants to know a couple of things:  When Tebow thanks God at the end of games, does he just say "Thanks Dad"?  And if he gets knocked out of the game in the 2nd quarter, will we call it The Resurrection if he comes back in the 3rd?  Will it be like a bad wrestling angle where someone comes back from the dead?  "By God, he...he's back!!  He has risen!!  Oh my God!!!"  Useless Stat:  Dolphins are 1-11 in their last 12 home games.  I just got dry heaves.
• Can Houston win a low-scoring slugfest?  They'll have to at Tennessee, because all-world WR Andre Johnson isn't back yet for the Texans.  Their defense is missing Mario Williams as well, and they've been getting gashed on the ground, so it's about that time for Titans RB Chris Johnson to wake up and eat up some yardage.  Tennessee sports one of the better defenses in the league.  Jason said it's time for Houston to do what they do, and that's start off the season hot and burn out halfway through.  Useless Stat:  Texans are allowing 4.6 yards per carry.  Calling Mr. Johnson, Mr. Chris Johnson...
• The Steelers better step up at Arizona if they intend to be a contender this year.  Pittsburgh has been very unimpressive stopping the run, but they get a rushing attack led by Beanie Wells, so it's a good opportunity for the Steel to right the ship.  That spread seemed awfully low, but Pitt's been less than top notch, so they've earned the disrespect.  Let's see if they come out motivated or if they once again play down to their competition.  Useless Stat:  Pittsburgh's 8.2 yards per pass attempt matches up beautifully with Arizona's 8.0 yards per pass attempt surrendered.  Like peanut butter and jelly.
• What the fuck is Hue Jackson doing?  The Raiders turn their backs for one second to bury Cryptkeeper Al and Hue just gives away two possibly #1 draft picks for the carcass of Carson Palmer.  I don't care what you think of the injured (and apparently unwanted) Jason Campbell.  Carson Palmer hasn't played at a level better than Campbell in a couple of years, and he hasn't played football at all this year!  What did Jackson think Palmer was gonna do, step in and look like the Palmer out of USC sixty years ago?  All week after the trade, we heard Palmer's gonna start, Palmer's gonna start, and now, it looks like Kyle Boller.  Know what that tells me?  Carson looked like shit in practice, that's what that told me, either that or he got hurt.  Jason will still take Oakland to do what they do best, and that's stick it up anyone's ass who tries to stop them from running.  I'll take Kansas City because the Chiefs should load up to stop the run knowing that there's no QB on the Oakland sideline that can throw the rock and make them defend the pass.  Useless Stat:  Kansas City, even without Jamaal Charles, has achieved 4.6 yards per carry, and Oakland's given up 4.9, setting up holes for Jackie Battle and Thomas Jones, and eventually opening up room on the outside for WR Dwayne Bowe to operate.
• Good luck, Christian Ponder.  He may not be playing Detroit, but he's being thrown to the lions.  Green Bay has to be salivating at a rookie QB in his first start against the champs, and Minnesota shouldn't stand a chance.  Useless Stat:  Packers and Aaron Rodgers are moving the ball at an insane 9.7 yards per throw.
• We both can't bear the thought of Dallas, who's been coughing up leads and games all year, beating anyone by two TDs.  We're certainly not taking St. Louis to win, especially having to start A.J. Feeley at QB for the injured Sam Bradford, but we'll take the Cowboys to fuck up something else and keep the Rams in the game.  Useless Stat:  Rams and Steven Jackson are running at a 4.4 yards per carry clip.  They should be just as effective on the ground as Tashard Choice and DeMarco Murray.
• On Sunday night, it's more hot Indianapolis Colts prime time action.  This time, they travel to New Orleans after the head coach got his knee blowed up and the Saints got beat at Tampa.  Think New Orleans is gonna be a little mad for this one?  Jason acknowledges that Indy keeps fighting and competing, but they're just a bad, bad team.  Useless Stat:  The Saints' 8.2 yards per throw matches up beautifully with the Colts' 8.3 defensive yards per throw.  Like Jack Daniels and Coke.
• The Monday night game isn't very compelling, either.  Baltimore, the 2nd best team in the league according to Jason, travels to Jacksonville to take on rookie QB Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars.  The most interesting thing about these two prime time matchups is how bad they're going to kill the World Series in the ratings.  Football is king, and nothing else matters.  Useless Stat:  The key to beating Jacksonville, of course, is controlling RB Maurice Jones-Drew because there's no passing game for the Jags to lean on in a comeback attempt.  The Jags are last in the league in pass yards per game.  But MJD is facing the 3rd best run defense, and the Ravens are only surrendering 3.3 yards per rush.  That deserves a special Scooby-Doo RUH ROH!

Week 6 ATS Recap: We Did It Live

I was on the road this week for Dre's wedding, which meant that IMLD was making our first live picks since the Pats/Giants Super Bowl in 2008. So while Dre enjoys time with his wife, I'm back home and back on schedule.

• Falcons 31, Panthers 17 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Dre nailed this one, citing that the Falcons missing Julio Jones would help them more than hurt. Indeed, the Falcons got back to what made them successful last season: Micheal Turner. Turner turned out an impressive performance and the Falcons erased a 17-14 deficit going into the 4th quarter and piled on the young Panthers. Cam Newton shows flashes, but give him time and he'll make some rookie mistakes. Atlanta capitalized on that in their 17 point final quarter and pulled within a game of Tampa and New Orleans.


• Niners 25, Lions 19 - Jason winner, Dre loser - I'm sensing some of the shine will rub off of the Lions from here on out. They didn't have that second half magic this time around, and who'd have thought that the Lions and 49ers would combine for 10 wins through 6 weeks? Barring a disaster, I'd say San Fran has the NFC West locked up. Yeah, I just called it.


• Bengals 27, Colts 17 - Both losers - The Bengals are so confident in Andy Dalton that they shipped off Carson Palmer to Oakland on Tuesday. Cincy got some nice picks in return. As for the Colts? They're toast.


• Eagles 20, Redskins 13 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Rex Grossman was bound to have some days like this. Rather than live with Bad Rex/Good Rex, Mike Shanahan saw enough after a 4 pick performance to name John Beck the new Skins starter. Sadly for Shanahan, there is no Good Beck to counter the Bad Beck. John Elway isn't walking through that door.


• Packers 24, Rams 3 - Both winners - The Packers jumped out fast and coasted through a scoreless second half. The Rams moved the ball pretty easily on the Pack but fell apart in the red zone. Sad stat: St. Louis is averaging less than 10 points per game. Many people (including me) had the Rams to win the West. Ouch.


• Steelers 17, Jaguars 13 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Speaking of coasting, Pitt got up 17-3 at the half and went to sleep, probably safe in knowing that the Jags offense simply could not mount a comeback on the now #1 defense in the league. They were right.


• Giants 27, Bills 24 - PUSH - The Bills were driving for the go-ahead score before Ryan Fitzpatrick threw his second pick of the contest, allowing NY to drive for their own game winning field goal. The Giants go into their bye atop the East, while the Bills seem to losing a little of their Detroit shine.


• Raiders 24, Browns 17 - Both winners - Even losing Jason Campbell, the Raiders didn't miss a beat. As long as Carson Palmer can handle the snap from center, he should be just fine as long as has McFadden and Bush to turn around and hand the ball to.


• Ravens 29, Texans 14 - Both winners - The Packers are the only unbeaten team, but Baltimore looks to be the most complete team in the NFL. The Ravens put it on Houston in every phase of the game, and a Texans team that looked like it was going to cruise to the AFC South title now has a fight on its hands from Tennessee.


• Bucs 26, Saints 20 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Teams that feature a one dimensional passing attack will put up games like this. New Orleans is superior to Tampa on paper, and has played much better football to this point, but 4 turnovers and no rushing game will not win you many games. Tampa, by virtue of winning this game, now leads the NFC South, a division that might be improving to where I thought they should be after some early hiccups.


• Patriots 20, Cowboys 16 - Jason winner, Dre loser - This was my highlight of the week. The Cowboys might be chokers, but they do compete, as I told Dre in our pick discussion. Coming down to the 4th quarter, when quarterback play and play calling are so vital, the Cowboys called a bone headed shovel pass to end a drive resulting in a field goal. The Pats answered with a methodical touchdown drive to win the game late. It wasn't pretty, but the better team walked away with a win. How's that Jason Garrett job security looking?


• Bears 39, Vikings 10 - Jason winner, Dre loser - It wasn't even as close as the score indicated. The Vikings made a change at QB heading into a matchup against the Packers this week, moving Donovan McNabb to the bench in favor of first rounder Christian Ponder. Yeah, McNabb blew this season, but the blame should not all be on him. There's some vital things the Vikings didn't do against the Bears that weren't McNabb's fault. Like run block, pass block, and defend on special teams. Other than that, totally all on McNabb.


• Jets 24, Dolphins 6 - Both winners - I'm not all that high on the Jets, but with Matt Moore getting the start for Miami, we knew things were not going to go well for the Fins. Total Fraud managed the game well enough, but Matt Moore sealed his own fate early, firing a 100 yard pick-6 to Revis Island while Miami was in position to score after getting an early field goal and forcing the Jets into 3 straights 3-and-outs in the first quarter. Miami's defense FINALLY showed up, just to be let down by their inept offense. So much for parity this year, there's some really awful teams out there.

Dre managed a 7-5-1 this week while I pulled out an 8-4-1, meaning that after suffering through a 2 win week earlier in the year that I've weaseled my way over .500 . This means another 2 win week is sure to follow.

Congrats on the wedding again, Dre. You earned it.

2011 Week #6

We did it live!  Jason wrote it, I'm blogging it, and we did it live! Hopefully, these picks don't SUCK!!  It's my wedding week, so the picks are in less detail than ever since I did no studying whatsoever before Jason and I sat down at a casino and made our picks.  Watch, I'll have a great record this week because I didn't overthink things.  Here they are, with no time to add any detail because my ass is gettin' married in 4½ hours:

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

ATL (2-3)	4	Car (1-4)			Atl	Car
DET (5-0)	4	SF (4-1)			Det	SF
CIN (3-2)	7	Ind (0-5)			Ind	Ind
Phi (1-4)	2	WASH (3-1)			Phi	Wash
GB (5-0)	14	StL (0-4)			GB	GB
PIT (3-2)	12	Jack (1-4)			Jack	Pit
NYG (3-2)	3	Buf (4-1)			Buf	Buf
OAK (3-2)	6½	Cle (2-2)			Oak	Oak
BAL (3-1)	7½	Hou (3-2)			Bal	Bal
NO (4-1)	4½	TB (3-2)			NO	TB
NE (4-1)	6½	Dal (2-2)			NE	Dal
	Sun. Nite
CHI (2-3)	3	Min (1-4)			Min	Chi
	Mon. Nite
NYJ (2-3)	7	Mia (0-4)			NY	NY

2011 Week 5: What I Learned

• How much fun is it watching Carolina and Cam Newton?  Sure, they can't figure out how to win games, but they're entertaining as hell trying.  We figured Panthers-Saints would be up and down, back and forth between two prolific offenses, and that's what it was.  And who would have thought that the Panthers could ever be defined as prolific?  Don't pick them to get blown out by anyone.  No matter what the score, these guys can hang.
• The Eagles, however...yikes.  This loss to Buffalo was the perfect storm of mishaps by Philadelphia on offense and defense.  A Michael Vick INT off someone's hands here, another big run given up by the D there...it's amazing how Philly is finding ways to lose.  Vick finally started trying to get the ball to DeSean Jackson in the 2nd half, but they still came up short.  The defense is an issue that everyone's aware of for Philly, but there's one thing more important that they're gonna need if they want to turn the season around, and that's getting DeSean in the end zone more.  That's the biggest piece missing from the Eagles right now.  Their success last year was predicated on Jackson flying past safeties and catching bombs from Vick.
• I would love to shout to the world that I was afraid of this Seahawks-Giants game going wrong as it did, but since I didn't pick Seattle and Jason did, I have to shut up.  But this is exactly the type of game the Giants find a way to lose.  They're at home, they're against a much inferior opponent, and they simply take them lightly.  Coach Tom Coughlin, QB Eli Manning, and that whole team are still mentally weak.  Victor Cruz bobbling a ball near the goal line that would have won the game and instead Seattle takes it the other way for a TD?  Mentally weak.  That's why they can't play consistently.  Yes, they have injuries, but they're deep enough that they should overcome them.
• Bengals, ugly.  Jaguars, uglier.  Let's move on.
• Speaking of ugly, how about those Chiefs?  I guess they thought that Indianapolis QB Curtis Painter couldn't get the ball downfield to Pierre Garcon, so they decided to leave him uncovered for the entire 1st half.  Good job, guys.  Kansas City, down a couple of possessions, was forced to do what they actually do best now that Jamaal Charles is out, and that's go vertical themselves.  And lo and behold, four Matt Cassel TD throws later, the Chiefs won.  Funny how that works.  Will KC figure out what to do next game in Week 7?  The smart money says no.
• Pittsburgh had to use some weapons they didn't know they had to beat the Titans.  They got rushing yardage from guys named Redman and Dwyer, and Ben Roethlisberger threw 5 TD passes, one of which was to someone I'd never heard of.  I'm still on the Steelers bandwagon as far as picking them to win most of the time.  When they're focused and motivated, they're still one of the better teams in the league.  Tennessee, not so much.
• Congrats to Leslie Frazier and the Minnesota Vikings on their 1st successful use of Adrian Peterson in a victory over Arizona.  Now let's see you do that against a real team.
• Was there any doubt that Matt Schaub's last pass for Houston into the end zone for the win would be unsuccessful against the Oakland/Los Angeles/Oakland Raiders the day after Cryptkeeper Al Davis dies?  Was there any doubt the silver and black would get it done on this day?  And the Texans let them do it in their house.  In case anyone thought that Houston was ascending because they're in front of their crap division, wonder no more.
• What the fuck has gotten into Alex Smith?  He's playing like an NFL quarterback ever since Coach Insane, Jim Harbaugh, took over in San Francisco.  Guess he's teaching Alex a trick or two.  On the other side, Radio Raheem did not have his team ready for this game at all off the short week.  Tampa Bay is in trouble.  They don't look good on either side of the ball right now.
• Another pick that could have gone either way, with the Patriots easily giving up yardage to the Jets at every turn.  New York could have covered the number if they could stop BenJarvis Green-Ellis.  The passing yards for Tom Brady are a given.  It was getting gashed on the ground that cost the Jets.  The Pats D still can't stop a nosebleed, but Gang Green couldn't stop The Law Firm.  And if Rex Ryan and the Jets aren't going to stop teams on the ground, they're not going to be successful mounting comeback drives with Mark Sanchez and his amazing bubble screen and slant pattern passing attack.
• I can drop my hopes of a Broncos surprise playoff berth...it's Tim Tebow Time.  First, I want to tell Kyle Orton, hey, it's all your fault, buddy.  You keep playing like shit when the stadium's chanting for another player, you get what you deserve.  But that's over now.  The premise for IMLD and those of you trying to pick Denver games against the number is whether the Broncos can compete while starting a QB that can't throw.  It's a new concept, that's for sure.  I will be as open-minded as I can be in trying to see a matchup where Tebow can have a good game rushing and throwing short passes.  But I think most of the time, I'm going to have to pick against a team trying to play in an NFL where everyone is encouraged to throw as much as possible, simply because that team wants to play a QB that cannot throw the football.
• Matt Ryan is doing a poor Drew Brees imitation, and it's not working.  The Falcons tried to assemble a WR corps prepared to spread the defense and open passing lanes for Matty Ice, but he hasn't been accurate enough this season to take advantage thus far, and that's why the Falcons are 2-3.  The shootouts that they won last year are going against them this year.  They were up 14-0 on the Packers Sunday night, but couldn't hold on because they refused to score a single point in the 2nd half.  That's not Green Bay suddenly having a great defense, that's Matt Ryan playing bad football.
• Yep, I still think the Lions are a fraud.  Nope, their win over the Bears Monday night didn't change that.  I was not impressed by anything Detroit did other than Matt Stafford flinging the rock to Calvin Johnson with no concern whether Chicago could stop them.  The murder attempts on Jay Cutler?  Every team tries to kill him because the Bears offensive line allows it.  The running of Jahvid Best?  Surprising, yes, but when Lance Briggs decides to run the other way, it's easy to get big runs.  That game was about the pathetic effort across the board of the Bears.  How many false starts and timeouts can one team rack up?  But as far as Detroit, look, they have been behind at the half three straight games.  Is that the mark of a great team?  The comebacks are fine, but let's see them play a whole game without falling behind against someone other than Kansas City, and then get back to me.

Week 5 Records--Dre 6-7, .462; Jay 8-5, .615
YTD Records--Dre 30-43-4, .411; Jay 35-38-4, .479

Week 5 ATS Recap: The Long Road

As I try to claw my way back to respectability, Dre's pre-wedding malaise continues....

• Saints 30, Panthers 27 - Both winners - The Saint defense continues to stink, the Panthers continue to be cover machines, and Steve Smith is a MAN. Gotta love a guy who gets cheap shotted, takes time to do his touchdown dance, and only then retaliates by pushing a guy down on to the turf by his facemask just to then lift him back up by it. The Panthers wont win many games this year, but they are a lot of fun to watch. Note to league: don't fuck with Steve Smith.


• Bills 31, Eagles 24 - Both losers - We either really underestimated the Bills, or way overestimated the Eagles. Of course, I'm the guy who wrote this, so I have nobody to blame but myself for picking Philly.


• Seahawks 36, Giants 25 - Jason winner, Dre loser - This was my least insightful pick of the week, and I'd love to take credit for being so smart, but I didn't see Seattle winning. The Giants looked like a bad bet to cover the big number, so I played the hunch. Wow, is the NFC East looking like crap right now.


• Bengals 30, Jaguars 20 - Both winners - Blaine Gabbert looks terrible, while Andy Dalton is doing just enough to give his team a chance late, and so far the Bengals are making their opportunities against bad opponents pay off.


• Chiefs 28, Colts 24 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Dre called this one, Dwayne Bowe killed it. His circus catch for a score ignited the Chiefs, who erased a 17 point deficit and kept the Peyton-less Colts without a win. So who thinks my insane ramblings about 18 for MVP are crazy now? I've even seen some of the "experts" going this route as well. Not so crazy after all.


• Steelers 38, Titans 17 - Dre winner, Jason loser - So much for annointing the Tennessee Titans as the new "it" team in the AFC. The old "it" team chucked it around pretty good on that formerly high ranked defense. For a week, the Steelers looked like they'd shaken off the rust, but that's still a team with a lot of problems.


• Vikings 34, Cardinals 10 - Both losers - Reference the recap of the Eagles/Bills game for the link. Nobody to blame but myself.


• Raiders 25, Texans 20 - Both winners - Did the Raiders win it for Al? Maybe. I say they won it because they are better.


• Niners 48, Bucs 3 - Both winners - Holy beatdown. San Fran lived up to my "Halfway to Eight" prediction. Eight as in wins. Wins as in it will probably only take 8 to win that garbage division. Speaking of garbage divisions, is there a GOOD division in the NFC right now? Discuss.


• Patriots 30, Jets 21 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Thanks to the Jets. Their porous D stiffened up on a late third down, when all the Pats needed was a first down to run out the clock, forcing the Pats to kick a late field goal. Of course, that field goal gave me the ATS win. Funny how not sucking for just one play, on a day when you sucked it up all over the field, can ruin your chances to cover a number.


• Chargers 29, Broncos 24 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Didn't I just win the Pats pick this way? I digress. I was a little worried once I saw the "Tebow replaces Orton" crawl during the real game I was watching (Pats/Jets). Now I'm not a Tebow fan, but even though the Bolts were comfortably up, I felt like Jesus coming into the game would spark Denver. Spark them he did, and it was good. Right up until the desperation heave at the end of the game bounced off his intended receiver. Fret not Bronco fans, the touchdown wouldn't have counted since the receiver was the first player to touch the ball after being out of bounds at the back of the endzone. Tebow gets the start in two weeks against Miami, and I hear Joe Buck has asked to be Tebow's personal announcer for all his starts. I kid.


• Packers 25, Falcons 14 - Jason winner, Dre loser - The Atlanta "Paper Champion" Falcons are in deep trouble. After looking fairly competent (yet still really boring) on their first two posessions, the Falcons didn't score the rest of the game en route to another Aaron Rodgers passing clinic. Rodgers hit twelve (?!?!?) different targets and avoided a recharged Falcon pass rush after the Packers lost a key offensive lineman. Sad stat for the Falcons, who traded WAY up for Julio Jones after their defense gave up 48 to these same Packers in January: the juggernaut Vikings, Broncos, and Panthers have scored more points on offense than you have. Yikes.


• Lions 24, Bears 13 - Both losers - The Bears have made the Cover-Zero defense famous by just refusing to cover the other teams best wideout. On Monday night, we saw the Cover-Zero RUN defense, as Jahvid Best managed an 88 yard touchdown run without being so much as touched, and converted a late 3rd & 9 on a shotgun draw. The 88 yarder was amazing, Best didn't even really make a move, he just ran where the Bears weren't, which was the entire middle of the field. Dre probably still doesn't believe the Lions are any good, by the way.

Well, I'm off to Dre's wedding this week, which means we're doing the picks for Week 6 Bill O'Reilly style, baby!

Week 6 results: I went 8-5, while Dre went 6-7.

2011 Week #5

I have returned from my bachelor party refreshed and renewed and ready to make a comeback from my shitty selections the last few weeks.  I tell ya, when we get a podcast going, it's not gonna be for the weak of heart.  Jason and I touched on a little bit of everything inappropriate while picking this week's games, from Hank Williams Jr. to Al Davis to Hitler as a new Monday Night Football theme to the capper, Gus Frerotte banging his head against a wall in celebration of a touchdown and his eyes bugging out like John McSherry, the baseball ump who dropped dead of a heart attack on the field.  Highly inappropriate.  And funny.  Now, our Week 5 picks, also funny to some of you.

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

NO (3-1)	6½	CAR (1-3)			Car	Car
Phi (1-3)	2½	BUF (3-1)			Phi	Phi
NYG (3-1)	9½	Sea (1-3)			NY	Sea
JACK (1-3)	1	Cin (2-2)			Cin	Cin
IND (0-4)	1	KC (1-3)			KC	Ind
PIT (2-2)	3	Tenn (3-1)			Pit	Tenn
MIN (0-4)	3	Ariz (1-3)			Ariz	Ariz
HOU (3-1)	5½	Oak (2-2)			Oak	Oak
SF (3-1)	2½	TB (3-1)			SF	SF
NE (3-1)	7½	NYJ (2-2)			NY	NE
SD (3-1)	3½	DEN (1-3)			Den	SD
	Sun. Nite
GB (4-0)	5½	ATL (2-2)			Atl	GB
	Mon. Nite
DET (4-0)	5	Chi (2-2)			Chi	Chi

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• Who can stop Cam Newton?  Obviously, a monsoon can slow him down, but not a defense thus far in his career.  The Bears were supposed to cause him all kinds of problems last week with their fancy Tampa-2, and what happened?  A Panther win in Chicago if the dumbass punter doesn't kick to Devin Hester.  So we'll take Carolina to cover the number hosting New Orleans in what could be a shootout.
• We can't see the Dream Team starting 1-4, so we'll take the Eagles to go to Buffalo and shake off the effects of the bad loss to San Fran.  Jason calls it a "value pick," because the Eagles could easily have beaten the 49ers last week, making them a bigger road fav than they are now.  Take advantage of Philly giving only 2½ and go with the better team.
• The New York Giants could have easily lost as well in Arizona, had they not received a huge bit of, yes, luck in getting Victor Cruz laying the ball down called as "giving himself up."  That's Rule 63, Section 17 of an amendment that Roger Goodell wrote the next day after the play on his iPhone while sitting on the can.  So Jason will take the Seahawks to cover a big number, saying that maybe the Giants aren't that good and maybe Seattle isn't that bad.  I'm not in love with the G-Men, but I do think Seattle is that bad, so I'll give the points.
• It's hard to make a case to pick the Jaguars right now with all the things going against them.  We'll pick Cincinnati for the rare road win.  We have nothing else to add and would like to move along from this game.
• Ooh, this one's worse--KC and Indy.  In the Tidy Bowl® Crap Game of the Week, Jason is picking the Colts because at least they've shown some heart in losing close games this season.  Kansas City hasn't shown much of anything.  But I'll take the Chiefs because they at least showed last week that they remembered who their best player is, and that's WR Dwayne Bowe.  It took QB Matt Cassel half the season to discover Bowe last year, but I'll bet on him to do it much earlier this time.
• Pittsburgh has a lot of things wrong with them, and Tennessee looks like one of the better teams through the first 4 weeks.  Not hard to see why Jason will take the Titans.  I'll take the Steelers for two reasons, looking at my stats, which usually mean I'm fucked.  One, Pitt missing LB James Harrison and DL Casey Hampton from their run defense won't matter because Tennessee and their big-money superstar RB Chris Johnson are running as a team at 2.8 yards per carry, which stinks.  And two, QB Matt Hasselbeck has been throwing the pill around to various unheralded guys with great success, but for all their maladies and rapid aging processes, the Steelers are still the #1 pass defense this year, allowing just 5.7 yards per attempt.  It may be a pass-happy game, what with Pittsburgh struggling to field running backs, but I like Pitt to stop an air show better than Tennessee.
• Picking either Arizona or Minnesota feels "dirty," according to Jason, but we'll hold our noses and go with the Cardinals.  The Vikings just seem completely lost right now.
• Can Oakland gather themselves and win one for Cryptkeeper Al, who died Saturday?  Maybe, but we like them to certainly cover the spread at Houston.  The Texans will have a much harder time blowing anyone out so long as they're missing one of the best WRs in the game, Andre Johnson.  Jason would like everyone to know, BTW, that Al Davis dying is all Darren McFadden's fault.  Al had seen just about enough of his high-flying offense getting grounded by Run-DMc's rushing production, and ol' Al finally just couldn't take any more.
• Despite bad memories of Tampa Bay flying into San Francisco and shutting the Niners out in their own house last year, we'll still take the 49ers this time around.  Alex Smith may be able to exploit what's been a putrid TB defense, and the Bucs are on a short week flying West.
• There's been no ground and pound for the Jets this year.  The offense had been relying on a solid rushing attack to support a shaky passing game, but the rushing has rushed out.  The Jets are 30th in the league running the ball.  Jason thinks they're primed for a pumping at the hands of Tom Brady and the Patriots.  I'll take New York to cover because Jets coach Rex Ryan, in between sucking his wife's corns, always develops a defense that slows down the New England offense at least a little, and because the Pats D can't stop a nosebleed, so maybe the Jets can get their ground game going and open things up for Mark "Total Fraud" Sanchez to make some plays.
• Jason debuted a new term for this pick--the Uncertain Squoosh.  He questioned himself in the middle of picking the Chargers to cream the Broncos.  He rightly pointed to how bad the Broncos have been this year, but sounded very unsure of himself in taking San Diego squoosh.  I'm Ron Burgundy??  I'm staying on the Denver bandwagon for one more week, mostly because the Chargers without TE Antonio Gates are highly susceptible to a loss at any time.
• Brett Favre gave Aaron Rodgers even more motivation, according to Jason.  When Favre said in an interview this week that he thinks Rodgers should have won a Super Bowl with the Packers even sooner than the three years it took him as the full-time starter, Favre pretty much stunned the world with his arrogance and envy.  We shouldn't have been surprised, of course.  But Jason thinks that Rodgers and the Pack will step out on a Sunday night stage and send a message to Favre that they're doing just fine without him, thank you.  My thinking is, what more message can Rodgers send than the one he sent last Sunday when he beat the Broncos like Tina Turner?  I like Atlanta because there's a revenge factor from the playoff game in January and because the Falcons can't play good games against good teams unless it's not the playoffs and because Rodgers isn't going against me in fantasy football, so he won't come close to doing the damage that he did last weekend.
• And on Monday night, the Detroit Lions are in the house!  They're mean!  They're tough!  They're legit!  They are ready to take the Hank-less prime time stage and show the world what they're made of!  The Chicago Bears are in deep trouble because here come those nasty, up-and-coming Lions and...wait, Rick Sutcliffe just chimed in like he's in the booth with Matt Vasgersian on a bender.  "No no no no no..."  Jason will take the Bears to cover because Detroit doesn't deserve to be a 5-point favorite at home on Monday night to the Chicago Bears.  I'll take the Bears to win because Detroit keeps falling behind early trying to establish a running game, and Matt Forte and the Bears seemingly have figured out how to run the ball, hold on to a lead, and keep their QB Jay Cutler from getting slaughtered.

Week 4 ATS Recap: Now With More Hitler and Less Hank

So, I'm watching MNF last night, and Mike Tirico sends it down to the field and we see a pretty weak version of our national anthem, and then it goes to commercial and right to the kickoff. I'm missing something for a moment, something felt out of place. Oh yeah, where was the overproduced, incredibly dated, lame Hank Williams and his rowdy friends (now this year mixed with hip-hop influences)? Turns out I missed the pregame to know that 'ol Hank was making comparisons between the Prez and Hitler. Hey, OK, freedom of speech and all, whatever makes Hank happy. ESPN got wind of these comments and responded by punishing Hank for his lunacy and pulling him and his rowdy friends from the broadcast. Now I'm pretty miffed. If that was all it took to save us all from the horrible open to MNF, why wouldn't Hank have lost his shit in, oh I don't know, 1996? Thanks to Hank, we have to sit through the worst sports open of them all: the Faith Hill Sunday Night Football theme.

In fact, let's jump in the Wayback Machine, to 1991, to watch the fictional opening to "The Last Boy Scout." They were mocking Hank almost immediately (Hanks open first debuted in 1989). And no, folks, thats not an homage, that is mocking. Hell, the movie credits were even interspersed into the theme, just like SNF and MNF would eventually rip off. Life really does imitate art.

• Bears 34, Panthers 29 - Both winners - Dre called Carolina straight up, but it was my greatest ally, the Garbage Time Touchdown, that saved the pick. Cam Newton threw a completely meaningless touchdown with 4 seconds left in the game to cover the number and end what was a remarkably high-scoring, exciting game. The Bears remembered Matt Forte for one week, and Jay Cutler was only sacked once. Amazing how that works!


• Bengals 23, Bills 20 - Dre winner, Jason loser - What is this, the year of the comebacks, or the year of the letdowns? The Bills, flying high after stunning wins over the Raiders and Patriots, laid an egg in Cincy. Of course they did.


• Titans 31, Browns 13 - Jason winner, Dre loser - I didn't get to hear any explanation of Dre's picks this week, and this is one that baffled me. I'll just chalk it up to his excitement over his bachelor party and upcoming nuptials. That's gotta be it. Tennessee is playing some pretty good ball right now.


• Lions 34, Cowboys 30 - Jason winner, Dre loser - The only perk of having a job where I have to work on Sundays is that we have DirecTV. This was the game we chose to watch, that is until the Cowboys went up 27-3. We spent the rest of the afternoon watching the highly enjoyable Bears-Panthers game, with the Steelers-Texans matchup on the local feed. Every so often, the ticker, or a cut-in, would show up what was transpiring in Dallas. Namely, another Tony Romo meltdown, and White Mike Vick and Megatron going all Beast Mode in the 4th quarter. Stunning comeback or monumental collapse? It's more fun when it's both, especially when Dre and I differed on the pick!


• Texans 17, Steelers 10 - Both losers - Live by the hook, die by the hook. Houston, even with all the calls going Pittsburgh's way (not like that's ever happened before) managed to hang on to a lead for dear life. Ironically, Wade Phillips defense held the Steelers in check all day, while his former defense in Dallas couldn't stop Calvin Johnson even with triple coverage.


• Saints 23, Jaguars 10 - Both winners - This pick was a gimme, and the Saints sleepwalked to an easy cover.


• Chiefs 22, Vikings 17 - Both losers - Methinks Christian Ponder Time is coming soon.


• Niners 24, Eagles 23 - Jason winner, Dre loser - If you told me that Mike Vick would stay healthy the whole game and account for almost FIVE HUNDRED YARDS of offense, I'd tell you the Eagles must have won 52-3. As Raheem Morris once eloquently pointed out, stats are indeed for losers. Vick was a force, but the rest of his team fumbled and brainfarted their way through the game, especially in the red zone. It was just enough to let Alex Smith and Frank Gore dominate the 4th quarter and erase a 20 point deficit. It's highly doubtful you'll ever see the words Alex Smith and dominate in the same sentence ever again.


• Redskins 17, Rams 10 - Both losers - It's offical, the Rams are done. Brady Quinn Done.


• Giants 31, Cardinals 27 - Dre winner, Jason loser - I'm sure Dre will expand on the Victor Cruz play, but I submit it as Exhibit A that I am not the only one to get bullshit lucky wins in this contest of picking games.


• Falcons 30, Seahwaks 28 - Both losers - The Falcons came a 61 yard field goal attempt away from being yet another team to meltdown after cruising to a huge lead. Dark things lay ahead for the Falcons in the form of the Packers passing offense. If you let Tavaris Jackson look competent, what will Aaron Rodgers do to you? I shudder at the thought.


• Packers 49, Broncos 23 - Jason winner, Dre loser - In our fantasy league, Dre was left with the #1 pick and had a choice: Adrian Peterson or Aaron Rodgers. Dre resigned himself to taking Peterson, knowing that I would take Rodgers at #3. As fate would have it, Dre and I squared off this week. It wasn't pretty, thanks to Rodgers putting up 50 fantasy points. Thanks, Dre!


• Patriots 31, Raiders 19 - Both losers - If Jason Campbell is throwing for 300+ yards and the Pats are outrushing the Raiders as a team, this is precisely the result we should get.


• Chargers 26, Dolphins 16 - Jason winner, Dre loser - It wasn't pretty and it wasn't decisive, it was simply a cover. The Bolts knocking Chad Henne out of the game to get to Matt Moore didn't hurt either.


• Ravens 34, Jets 17 - Both winners - Joe Flacco completed 32% of his passes, threw a pick six, was sacked twice, lost a fumble, and went 2+ quarters without a completion. Guess what? Flacco was still the best QB on the field in this game! Total Fraud imploded, handing out defensive touchdowns like Halloween candy, and showed yet again why he is never going to lead the Jets to the promised land.


• Buccaneers 24, Colts 17 - Both winners - The Colts might be Brady Quinn Done as well, but at least they are trying. For a second consecutive week, the Colts played about as well as can be expected against a superior foe and took the game to the wire. That being said, I'm just not excited about seeing the Colts three more times this season in prime time.
  

Week 4 is over. I managed to grind out 9 wins, while Dre had other things on his mind and walked away with 6.

Week 4 Picks: Crapped on You By Depends!

The idiotic sponsorships reached a low point in the last few years. Instead of just sponsoring every single thing in sports or in any sports talk show related segment, we needed colorful descriptors for the sponsorship. Car sponsor? Segment is "driven." Pizza sponsor? Segment is "delivered." Seriously, this is what we have come to.

Anyhow, once again I'm flying solo on my picks portion of the blog. That didn't work so well for me last time out: I won two freaking picks. This has got to go better for me.

• Panthers (+6) at Bears - My pick: Panthers. I don't quite have the balls to take Carolina straight up, but who cares? I took the points, so I win even if the Panthers win! The Panthers pass rush will cause more pain for Jay Cutler and Cam Newton will find enough holes in a porous Bear secondary to give the Panthers a chance late.


• Bills (-3) at Bengals - My pick: Bills. A letdown is possible here after two thrilling comebacks, but Cincy does not have the offense or the defense to keep up with Buffalo.


• Titans (+1) at Browns - My pick: Titans. Tennessee is getting just enough from its offense to supplement the #1 defense in the league after three weeks. Cleveland hasn't impressed me thus far, I need to see a little more fight from them.


• Lions (+1½) at Cowboys - My pick: Lions. As long as Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford are upright out on the field, I'm taking them.


• Steelers (+3½) at Texans - My pick: Steelers. I'll make it clear, I LOVE the hook on this game.


• Saints (-6½) at Jaguars - My pick: Saints. Blaine Gabbert, in his second start, does not have the weapons to keep up with the high octane Saints. Saints squoosh.


• Vikings (-1½) at Chiefs - My pick: Vikings. I think we'll see a LOT of Adrian Peterson this week, and the Chiefs slide to worst team in the NFL will be complete.


• Niners (+9) at Eagles - My pick: 49ers. If Vick can stay on the field for 60 minutes (of game time, not real time), then the Eagles should blow the doors off Frisco. I'm betting he can't.


• Redskins (+1½) at Rams - My pick: Rams. The Rams desperately need a win after being the media darling pick to win the NFC West. In a season full of tough opponents, the Rams will take advantage of Crazy Mike Shanahan and Bad Rex and eke out their first win.


• Giants (-1) at Cardinals - My pick: Cards. Kevin Kolb has found something: close his eyes and chuck it deep to Larry Fitzgerald and good things happen (Matt Stafford has learned the same with Megatron). Look for Fitz to find paydirt a couple times this weekend and the "underdog" Cards to hold serve in the desert.


• Falcons (-4½) at Seahawks - My pick: Falcons. If the Falcons fall to 1-3, they could be in for a LONG season (the Packers visit Atlanta next week). I think they know it, and will step it up against a team they obliterated last season.


• Broncos (12½) at Packers - My pick: Packers. Green Bay hasn't been a safe bet to cover this season. Even when they do, it's a late hold or a phantom holding call. Not this time. Packers squoosh.


• Patriots (-4½) at Raiders - My pick: Raiders. The Black Hole is not a friendly place to play, ever. It's even worse when the team that occupies it is good. Oakland bent the Jets over and look to run it down the Pats throats as well.


• Dolphins (+7) at Chargers - My pick: Chargers. I'll call it: this one feels pushy. I've probably sealed the deal on the fifth push of the year right there. It's not September any more, which means the Chargers are free to crush somebody.


• Jets (+3½) at Ravens - My pick: Ravens. Batimore looks to be back on schedule after losing at Tennessee in Week 2, while the Jets are reeling from being run over by Darren McFadden. Ray Rice is no cure for your rush defenses ills.


• Colts (+10) at Bucs - My pick: Colts. In very limited playing time, I saw enough of Curtis Painter to realize that he understands the Colts offensive scheme. That's something I never saw out of Kerry Collins. The Colts are 0-3 but are still playing with tremendous heart. If the Bucs overlook them in a prime time match up, the Colts could escape with win #1.