Scott Norwood

Scott Norwood
Wide Right started it all.

Monday, January 21, 2013

NFL Conf. Finals '13: What I Learned

  • I learned that perhaps I've been a bit too harsh on defense in today's NFL, because both losing teams had dangerous, prolific offenses that could have used a tad more from their defenses in order to win their games.  Well, in New England's case, a lot more defense.  But Atlanta played their game and could have won by my exact predicted score had they stopped San Francisco from scoring the game winner.  I loved how both starting QBs, Colin Kaepernick and Matt Ryan, over and over and over again took the open voids in the opposing defensive zones and stuck accurate passes in there with velocity.  Neither guy missed very much.  It's easier to do your jobs when you have great pass catchers.  Props to Julio Jones, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, Michael Crabtree, and Vernon Davis.  Those guys were outstanding.  Jones helped the Falcons to another big lead early, but Kaepernick was cooler than Matty Ice on this day, calmly leading the comeback with help from RBs Frank Gore and LaMichael James.  The key sequence came in the 4th quarter, when the 49ers were going in for the lead down 24-21.  Crabtree caught a pass and was ready to put the ball over the goal line, but my X-factor Dunta Robinson made a huge strip and saved the day.  However, the San Fran D forced a 3-and-out, giving Kaep and his large offensive line another drive to take the lead, and this time, Gore cashed in.  But that left Matty Ice over 3 minutes to lead another game-winning drive, and he got the Falcons down in the red zone.  Then Matty Ice melted.  I didn't want to observe that because I've become a big fan of Ryan during this season.  But that's unfortunately what happened.  He clearly tensed up on his 4th-and-4 throw, and he forced the ball in to a covered White, and the pass was broken up.  I would even give him an injury excuse, because Ryan got driven to the ground on his non-throwing shoulder a few plays before, and he seemed to be very ouchy.  But it still stands as a stalled drive where he threw the incompletion that basically locked it up for the Niners.  Atlanta played a great game.  They were beaten by a team that's better, but they didn't gag.  They just needed a handful of stops on the defensive side, and they would have pulled it out.  Or, in today's league, maybe they needed Ryan to take a shot at Julio Jones in the end zone on 4th down.  He was unstoppable the other two times he was targeted for TD throws.
  • New England already knows that their defense is suspect and needs bolstering, which is why they drafted as many defenders as they could before the season and then traded for All-Pro CB Aqib Talib during the season.  It wasn't enough.  Talib missed virtually the whole game after pulling a hammy early, and the rest of the secondary tried hard and had a decent game as a whole, but came up short of doing what was necessary to hold off Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens.  The lesson to learn is that the Ravens aren't intimidated by any task.  The Colts weren't much of a challenge, but they did gather yardage and further the thought that Baltimore's days of devastating defense were dead.  The Broncos in the Mile High City should have been scary, but Joe Flacco and his arm weren't afraid to lead his team back.  And then the Patriots, who had been destroying all comers.  But Baltimore knew this enemy from their many past battles, and they were not only unafraid but eager to conquer.  New England's no-huddle offense was problematic early, but even then, the Ravens seemed to be at least lined up and ready to try to stop the next play instead of scrambling under the flurry of offense.  Both QBs had accuracy issues and had to figure ways to overcome.  Flacco did it by checking down and moving the ball nicely underneath the coverage.  Brady did it by taking advantage of Baltimore's blitzes.  Wes Welker stopped the first 3rd-quarter drive by dropping a wide-open pass, and that seemed to be a turning point.  As has been well reported, New England failed to score at all in the 2nd half.  But they were moving the ball fine on that possession before the drop.  The wind was the real X-factor in this one, as everything thrown left to right took off.  Flacco adjusted, though, and with the help of their own no-huddle, he got in a rhythm and sliced up the Patriots.  CBS color man Phil Simms called Ravens RB Bernard Pierce the X-factor, because you expect Ray Rice to make an impact on the ground, but not Pierce.  Pierce actually outgained Rice 52-48, but the combined running as a team balanced the offense and let Flacco relax and win the game without too many panicked downfield bomb attempts.  I must bow to the greatness of offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell, as he has called a couple of nice games in a row for the Ravens.  But it was the D that came up humongous in the 4th quarter, silencing every Brady comeback attempt with 2 picks, a turnover on downs, and a bone-crushing fumble forced by SS Bernard Pollard that put RB Stevan Ridley to sleep.  What a symbol of the dominance by the Ravens D--Ridley asleep as multiple Ravens jump on the loose football next to him.  It's a game of inches, too, because NE was down 8 and driving near midfield when the hit happened, and Ridley's ass was thatclose to hitting the ground before the ball came out, which would have ruled him down with no fumble.  What a postseason for Baltimore, and what a battle this Super Harbaugh Bowl should be.  I already love the under.  And this year, the pressure's on me to make the right pick and keep my lead and win the IMLD season picks championship.  I've never hoped harder for a spread with no hook, so that the game may be a push and I can maybe escape with a cheap win.

Dre--112.2 + 4 = 116.2 pts; Jay--110.0 + 4 = 114.0 pts

Saturday, January 19, 2013

NFL Conf. Finals '13

Both point spreads seem to be ludicrous to both Jason and me, so you're about to read a lot of concurring and agreeing on this weekend's big games.  So if you're here for insightful argument, look elsewhere.




Conf. Finals


Fav Spread Dog

Dre Jay
SF (12-4-1) ATL (14-3)

Atl Atl
NE (13-4) 8 Bal (12-6)

Bal Bal


San Francisco @ Atlanta

The NFC's top seed held a 20-point lead in the 4th quarter in their only playoff game, held on for a triumphant comeback win, and will host the conference title game.  And for that, they get to be underdogs to a team with a 2nd-year player at QB named a starter only weeks ago.  The Atlanta Falcons are not getting the love from the bettors, and they won't get that love any time soon.  Who thinks either AFC team would be underdogs to the Falcons in the Super Bowl?  Me neither.  It's obvious that Atlanta will not get that love or respect until they go all the way.  The San Francisco 49ers are getting all sorts of love and affection coming off of their romp past the Packers behind the super nova 2nd-year QB, Colin Kaepernick.  Here's how I see this one playing out:  Atlanta will not have the rushing attack to complement the passing game because the Niners will bring the pain with NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis stuffing the run.  That presses Falcons QB Matt Ryan into action, and we think he's (finally) up to the task.  He's playing as well as he ever has, and maybe like Baltimore there's some retirement mojo for Atlanta as well, seeing that their all-time great TE Tony Gonzalez is hanging 'em up.  SF will hold the better running game, but it shouldn't be as easy as last week against Green Bay.  ESPN's Ron Jaworski observes that Atlanta's zone defense will allow them to better look in on Kaepernick as he gets ready to break contain, and he shouldn't gain so many yards before contact.  It seemed that Green Bay had a little problem keeping track of where Kaep was and when he was running free in the open field.  The Falcons cannot let that happen.  Jason says that Atlanta has somehow perfected the art of pulling out a game if it's close, so he might like San Fran if he thought they were capable of blowing the Dirty Birds out.  But he doesn't think that's happening.  Even if the 49ers get the win, Jay loves that we got the hook.  He's amazed that the Falcons are home dogs, and they have to be fired up and ready to bite.  Our X-factors:  Mine is Falcons CB Dunta Robinson.  I believe Asante Samuel, the more athletic and rangier Atlanta CB, will try to stick the veteran Randy Moss and limit his big gains, leaving Robinson to duel with Michael Crabtree, the talented SF wideout who didn't have much impact in his career with Alex Smith at QB.  Crabtree looks to be Kaepernick's favorite weapon, and Robinson has to slow him down and make Kaep beat them throwing somewhere else.  Jason's is 49ers KR Ted Ginn Jr.  He's the reason the Niners lost last year in the NFC title game.  If Ginn were healthy, Kyle Williams wouldn't have been the punt returner, and he wouldn't have coughed up the ball twice to provide a big assist for the New York Giants.  Jason looks to Ginn to celebrate being in position to help this time around by having a big return game, Trindon-Holliday-esque, he hopes.  After all, Holliday's team did gag and lose.

My Pick:  Atlanta 24-21

Baltimore @ New England

Deja vu strikes the 2nd conference title game.  It was in Foxboro last year that we saw Joe Flacco show signs of becoming a big-time quarterback, and that outing convinced both Jason and me to pick the Baltimore Ravens to win the Super Bowl this season.  And it was in Week 3 this season that the New England Patriots got their shot at going to Baltimore and showing them that they're not in the same class of the Pats, and they didn't close the deal.  The Ravens got a last-second FG that may have sailed wide of the uprights, but the replacement referees (remember them??) called it good, leaving NE coach Bill Belichick to grab one of the refs demanding an explanation.  The bettors clearly don't think that the Ravens are in New England's class, as they've made NE more than a TD favorite all week.  Hell, NE was a 7-point fav last year in the AFC title game against these same Ravens before Flacco had his breakout game!  Baltimore's playoff run is completely getting dismissed in the face of another Patriots title push, and we don't like that one bit.  Jason's going to back his Super Bowl pick with those big points, and I'm going to take them to win.  Now, I realize that I jumped off the Baltimore bandwagon when they fired their offensive coordinator three weeks before the playoffs, and when I jump back on a bandwagon, I usually crush it.  So trust my pick at your own risk.  But we're both happy to take all of those points because Baltimore's hot and because New England is always a bad performance by their offensive line away from Tom Brady losing his poise and having a bad game.  No QB, except maybe Aaron Rodgers, withstands a shitty o-line game, but Brady's affected as much as anybody.  That exquisite timing with his receivers, that no-huddle which flusters every opponent...throw all of that out if the line doesn't protect.  The Ravens know this.  They knew it when they beat up Brady in last year's conference title game, and they knew it this season when they beat up Brady and forced him into a bad 2nd half, allowing the rally and last-second FG that may or may not have sailed wide of the uprights.  And don't forget, another freak broken arm robs New England of their most dangerous red-zone weapon, TE Rob Gronkowski.  Roll the Ray Lewis Witness to Murder Retirement Tour all the way to the Bayou for the Super Bowl!  Our X-factors:  Mine is Patriots CB Aqib Talib.  This is why Belichick brought Talib in, to have a decent CB who can make a one-on-one stop and make plays deep versus fast WRs.  Talib better take his Flintstone Vitamins and get ready to slow down the speedsters running routes for the Ravens, particularly...Jason's X-factor, who is Ravens WR Torrey Smith.  He set the field ablaze in the Rocky Mountains, and now he'll be set to fire it up against the Pats.  In that Week 3 game, Smith posted 6 catches for 127 yards and 2 TDs.  Talib, best wishes, Godspeed, and try not to commit pass interference while covering Smith.

My Pick:  Baltimore 27-16

Friday, January 18, 2013

Devils Advocate: Championship Weekend

This is an interesting week since I'm writing this already having my official picks for the games made. I won't spoil the picks with this post as I'm pointing out the reasons why BOTH teams will win their game.

San Francisco at Atlanta
  • Why the Niners will win: Did you see what they did to the Packers? Jim Harbaugh spat in the face of all things coaching by replacing a winning quarterback with an uproven QB that he THOUGHT could get the job done better and make his offense more dynamic. Up til now, it's worked tremendously, as the Colin Kaepernick bandwagon keeps growing and Alex Smith's job interviews look about ready to start. The Niners win with a crushing defense, corners that can go 1-on-1 with the Atlanta wideouts and linebackers that can neutralize Tony Gonzalez. The Smiths up front on the D-line will force Matty Ice into some bad throws and the Niners win in a cakewalk.......
  • Why the Falcons will win: ......unless it's not a cakewalk, then look for Falcons to use their superhuman ability to win games on 1-minute drives to "escape" from their own home stadium as a #1 seed underdog. The Falcons are one of the few teams that can really play the respect card, as NOBODY seems to want to give this team a chance. The talk of division week was the Seahawks and Russel Wilson's amazing rookie campaign, followed by the talk this week of the Kaepernick show and the genius of Jim Harbaugh. The Falcons are an afterthought. They will win if they feed off the negative energy and a frenzied Georgia Dome and unleash the offense for a full 60 minutes versus the 45 minutes they showed up for against Seattle. The Atlanta run game suddenly reappeared last week, giving the Niners just enough to worry about to open up some holes in the secondary.
Baltimore at New England
  • Why the Ravens will win: After knocking off Denver in a game for the ages, the Ravens will clamp down on their special teams woes and build off only giving up 21 points to the Bronco offense. The Ravens do not fear the Patriots as some other teams do, and will not be intimidated by the no-huddle attack that Brady runs to near-perfection. The Pats are missing one of their best weapons in TE Rob Gronkowski, and while the stat sheet might not show he was missed, it's one less weapon for Brady, possibly his best weapon. The Ravens win if Joe Flacco continues to play in full-on Mad Bomber mode. In the Denver cold, the Ravens "throw deep" philosophy worked early and often, from early torchings of Champ Bailey to the last minute 70 yard heave to Jacoby Jones. The Pats secondary strikes no fear in anyone, and if Flacco comes out gunning deep, and hitting some home runs, look for things to open up underneath.
  • Why the Patriots will win: Other than just being the Patriots, which was more than enough against Houston, the Patriots will win with their relentless offense. This team never takes a break, and every time they get the ball, you assume that a seven is going up on the board. The defense seems to coax big plays out of nobodies (I'm looking at you, Rob Ninkovich) and summon a Vince Wolfork sack at just the moment they need it. New England is also sneaky good on the ground, and the runningback by commitee approach worked well last week, as Danny Woodhead exited early only to watch Stevan Ridley and Ben, I mean, Shane Vereen combine for over 120 yards and two touchdowns. A not-so-one-dimensional Patriot offense could spell doom for any opponent, and will get them into their obscene sixth Super Bowl of the Brady-Belichick era.

Tuesday, January 15, 2013

NFL Conf. Semis '13: What I Learned

  • I learned that I now have to be on record with two completely contradictory statements.  I said in my season review that Baltimore couldn't win the Super Bowl because no one wins a Super Bowl firing their offensive coordinator three weeks before the damn playoffs begin.  I said last week that if Baltimore somehow went into Denver and knocked off the 13-3 Broncos, I'd have them going through to win the Super Bowl, because they could then beat anybody.  Foot, meet mouth.  Well, one of those statements will be flat wrong.  I haven't decided which one yet.  As for this game, it had to be one of the greatest days of Jason's prognosticating career, for not only did his X-factor, Denver KR Trindon Holliday, have a monster return day with a punt return and kick return each of a TD, but Baltimore pulled off the upset despite that, just like Jason said.  All he could say is, "Scoreboard!"  And all I can say is, wow.  How did it happen?  Looked like one of the quarterbacks had a much stronger throwing arm than the other, and those long bombs weren't defended well at all, and that's how the Ravens stuck around.  They won the same way they scored first--by taking a Peyton Manning throw and intercepting it.  Yes, the first pick was a deflection.  But Peyton shoulders the blame for this loss, so to speak.  The geometry of a QB's throws changes completely when arm strength decreases as markedly as Peyton's has, and I chronicled how weak his arm was throughout the season.  His play and their record indicated to me that Peyton knew his limitations and figured out how to get the job done without trying things he's incapable of doing, like going deep and firing balls into tight spaces against the grain.  He did keep his deep attempts to a minimum, but that last pass in overtime was desperation and perhaps choking under the pressure of trying to overcome a Baltimore team that decided to let its QB, Joe Flacco, torch the field with long bombs all over the place.  I understand how Manning could come to feel that pressure, because Baltimore's offensive woes would lead one to believe that putting up 35 points in regulation would be more than enough to beat them.  But there they were in OT battling a Ravens team that seemed to have a sort of destiny on their side.  Let's be honest, those Flacco throws were hard and deep, but they weren't totally indefensible.  A clearly over-the-hill Champ Bailey turned out to be my X-factor working against me because he kept getting shoved aside and physically beaten on bombs to Torrey Smith.  The whole secondary fell apart on the game-tying heave to Jacoby Jones.  Denver came in with the 8th-rated pass defense in the league, giving up only 6.4 yards per throw.  Obviously, their schedule was more the reason than their actual play.  I can't bury Peyton forever and say that he can't win a title ever again.  But he must hold his composure and execute when the stage is bigger and the competition isn't Kansas City.
  • In my only win of the weekend, Coach Insane watched his protege Colin Kaepernick start out with big-time jitters.  San Francisco's Kaepernick threw a pick-6 on his 2nd pass attempt, and Green Bay had 7 points without any effort from their star QB Aaron Rodgers.  The jitters would have had to be the only reason San Fran lost, however, because the rest of the game showed that three other very important categories when comparing Kaep and Rodgers were not in GB's favor:  In arm strength, they appeared to be equal; in legs, Kaep clearly had the advantage; and in "leading the league in guts," as Jon Gruden would put it, Kaep also was not outdone by last year's league MVP.  Those were some grapefruit-sized balls Kaepernick had Saturday night.  He could have turtled and folded into his shell after that INT, but he let his cannon loose and delivered ball after ball on target, mostly to the only real receiver on the team, Michael Crabtree.  And then when he was pressured and had to break the pocket, he put on a show with his feet never before done by any QB ever.  When it was over, his stat line read 263 yards passing and 2 TDs, and 181 yards rushing and 2 TDs.  Unbelievable!  It was like watching Michael Vick in Madden '02 against the Jacksonville Jaguars--no fucking chance.  He had help along the way from Packers punt returner Jeremy Ross, whose muff and subsequent Crabtree TD catch was a momentum shift, although Rodgers came right back with a TD drive.  The biggest help he had was from Patrick Willis.  The do-everything Niners linebacker made huge pass-rush blitzes in the 2nd half.  Rodgers was under fire on 3rd down due to Willis, Justin Smith, and Aldon Smith, and the Packers weren't able to keep up with Kaepernick and his all-time performance for the ages.  Coach Insane became Evil Genius for his decision to keep Kaepernick in for Alex Smith.  Whatever you may think of Smith, he's never in his life been capable of an outing like this.
  • Ravens-Broncos was a playoff classic.  So was Seahawks-Falcons, but different.  It wasn't a sad old lion possibly being put down, but rather an organization feeling like it had overcome the doubts and dominated a playoff win, only to blink and find itself losing and stuck in a fatal situation.  Seattle got off to another slow start, like in Washington last week.  Even Beast Mode got Beasted, as Marshawn Lynch fumbled early in the game and wasn't a big factor the rest of the way.  Matt Ryan did what he was supposed to do, completing passes even while seeing his deep attempts broken up by the physical Seattle CB Richard Sherman.  He got a great boost from the dormant running game, and that rushing attack from Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers led to a play-action bomb TD to Roddy White.  You name it, it went in Atlanta's favor in the first 3 quarters, from Seattle becoming the team with 3rd-and-1 and 4th-and-1 issues when previously the Falcons were known for struggling in those situations, to Russell Wilson getting confused by Atlanta's muddle huddle and not finishing drives despite great intermediate throws to TE Zach Miller, to giving up a 7-minute 3rd-quarter drive that put Atlanta up 27-7 and should have put the game away.   Then that 4th quarter happened.  It was bad play calling by the Falcons, it was bad throws by Ryan, it was bad tackling by the Falcons D, it was Wilson and the Seahawks mounting another impossible rally, it was all of that.  And Atlanta had to be smothered under the weight of their prior playoff gag jobs.  But one thing the Dirty Birds have always done well under Ryan and coach Mike Smith is calmly find big throws and get in field goal range with very little time on the clock.  And that's how they managed to find a long Matt Bryant FG with under a minute left to come back and steal the win, if not the cover.  "Unbelievable," Jason texted me when it was over, but I don't know if that was his reaction to the breathtaking game as a whole or to losing the point spread in a game where our pick led by 20 in the 4th quarter and couldn't cover 3 lousy points.  I know how most of the country will react to this one--write off Atlanta as the frauds they thought they were and favor San Francisco coming in to the Georgia Dome for the NFC title.  But I won't write off Atlanta that fast, even though I might also pick against them.  This is the kind of win that sometimes pushes a team through to a championship, because so many of those guys were winless in the playoffs before this game, and now that they know they can play well in a playoff game and also win it, they can focus on that small part in between where they cough up a big lead.  They better work on it quick, though.  The 49ers probably aren't going to be down 20 to the Falcons at any point.
  • The Houston Texans played better in New England than they did that terrible Monday night in Week 14.  That's not really saying much, but it's all I have to cling to after picking them to cover the number and losing.  They did turn in a better effort.  They didn't seem like they belonged in a different league than the Patriots.  What did they seem like?  A worse team by any measure than the Patriots, unfortunately for me.  Houston had one drive in the 2nd quarter where they took advantage of great field position on a Danieal Manning kickoff return, and they gave the rock to Arian Foster and ran it five straight times until Foster scored a touchdown.  I thought that was going to be huge for the Texans' confidence because they knew they could physically push around the mighty New England Patriots, and they would be able to use the threat of Foster to burn the Pats on play action for the rest of the game.  They held the Pats to a 3-and-out and then got a FG to end the half down 17-13, and that had to shake NE and those who bet them.  But my fear was that New England would regroup in the 2nd half and show why they were such big favorites, and that's just what they did.  Texans QB Matt Schaub showed why he's not looked upon as elite, because in the 3rd quarter, when Tom Brady masterfully led two TD drives, Schaub threw the ball right to LB Rob Ninkovich, killing a promising drive.  One might have turned the lights out on Houston covering after the Pats went up 38-13 in the 4th, but the Texans put a couple of drives together against New England's soft prevent-type defense and made it 38-28, and only one more garbage-time score would have covered for me, but it didn't happen.  I wouldn't have deserved the win if it did happen.  The Patriots mostly toyed with the Texans and weren't threatened after the Texans scored 10 to end the 1st half.  New England looks poised for another push for the Super Bowl.  Ray Lewis and his Team of Destiny are standing in their way, and they will be a tougher out than Houston.  I think it's going to be another all-timer, and I can't dismiss Joe Flacco and his suddenly rocket arm as an upset candidate, especially now that the Ravens have earned another shot at the team that should have lost to them last season if not for Lee Evans having the dropsies.

Dre--109.2 + 3 = 112.2 pts; Jay--104.0 + 6 = 110.0 pts

Saturday, January 12, 2013

NFL Conf. Semis '13

I am very fired up for the Divisional Round or whatever the NFL calls this weekend, not just because every game is extremely compelling, but because Jason has differed on three games with me, meaning that if I sweep these three games under our point system, I freeze him out!  Yep, I can win for the season if I nail our head-to-head disagreements.  Now to see where we differ and why:




Conf. Semis


Fav Spread Dog Final
Dre Jay

Saturday




DEN (13-3) Bal (11-6)

Den Bal

Sat. Nite




SF (11-4-1) GB (12-5)

SF GB

Sunday




ATL (13-3) 3 Sea (12-5)

Atl Atl
NE (12-4) Hou (13-4)

Hou NE


Baltimore @ Denver

In the weekend opener, it's Ray Lewis and the Witness to Murder Retirement Tour in the Mile High City against that goober who keeps winning football games even after a zillion neck surgeries.   Three games this weekend have previous regular-season battles to check out.  In this one, the Broncos went into Baltimore in Week 15 right after the Ravens shitcanned their offensive coordinator, Cam Cameron, and Denver tapped that ass like Kevin Garnett threatened to do to La La Anthony.  In my review, I saw that Joe Flacco and Baltimore looked lost and uncoordinated, and Peyton was Peyton.  I'm not switching up now.  That Ravens offense still didn't look sharp last week despite the efforts of Anquan Boldin, and I will not predict them to put it together in Denver against one of the top defenses.  It's going to be cold and miserable, a good time perhaps to rely on Ray Rice to run the rock for Baltimore, but they don't do that.  I thought they'd try to do that in Week 15 and play into Denver's hands since they play the run well, but Jim Caldwell in his infinite wisdom didn't have that in his game plan.  He's not bright enough to do it here, either.  I'm back in love with my man crush Peyton Manning and that 5th-ranked pass game, and it won't matter that Ray Lewis and other missing parts that weren't there for Week 15 are present for this game.  All that said, if the Ravens win this one, I'm locking them in to win the Super Bowl.  If they get this done, they can't be stopped.  Jas is actually taking Baltimore to win.  He says in a tight game, the Ravens will play to their competition and rise up over the Broncos.  The Ray-Ray Retirement Wagon wheels on, according to my partner, and since he's got the history of winning crazy picks in the Divisional Round weekend, I just wet my pants.  Our X-factors:  Mine is Broncos CB Champ Bailey.  He's going to have to battle Boldin for those wild Flacco jump balls, and if he doesn't rein Anquan in, Baltimore can ride a few big bombs to the upset.  Jason's is Broncos KR Trindon Holliday.  He thinks the Broncos can continue to benefit from big special teams plays from Holliday, who's been hotter than fire since joining the team after their 6th game of the season.  In ten games with Denver, Holliday averaged an impressive 32.5 yards per kick return, including a 105-yard TD sprint.

My Pick:  Denver 27-10

Green Bay @ San Francisco

In the 1st game of the season, the 49ers surprised many by going into Green Bay and knocking the Packers around before winning 30-22 in a game that wasn't that close.  This was B.C., as in Before Colin.  Yep, Alex Smith led that victory, showing how gutsy the decision to keep him benched after his concussion was by Coach Insane.  But Coach Insane, a.k.a. Jim Harbaugh, is an evil genius, and this right here is exactly what he's been waiting for--the playoffs, where his team melted down last year in the NFC Championship Game.  This is why Colin Kaepernick is now the starting QB instead of Smith.  Where Smith couldn't lead his squad to a game-winning FG against the Giants, Kaepernick will add a new athletic element and either break the game for San Francisco with his skillz or against them with his inexperience.  Either way, it's going to be exciting.  I think that the Packers are a little too beat up to persist this season, and they will go down here.  Aaron Rodgers is still not on the same page with his receivers, who have been hurt and in and out of the lineup all season, and it won't take much hesitation by Rodgers for Aldon Smith and the Niners to come lay the wood.  Harbaugh has had two weeks to invent new plays in the lab for Kaep, and I think Green Bay's defense will see some things that they can't be ready for.  Jason's going with the popular upset pick, as most of the pundits think the Pack are poised for a run.  He likes the bye week Green Bay got by facing Joe Webb and the pathetic Vikings last week, saying it looked like they were running a scrimmage while running out the clock.  He likes GB to win on the SF Bay by more than a TD.  Our X-factors:  Mine is Packers WR/KR Randall Cobb.  His speed is legit scary, and if he takes over as Rodgers' top target while breaking big plays on special teams, he could be a huge breakout star and steal this game all by himself.  Jason's is 49ers WR Randy Moss.  He thinks Moss will get a flashback to the old days and remember the damage he used to inflict on the Packers.  Unfortunately, he's not in Lambeau Field, so he can't mock-moon the fans.

My Pick:  San Francisco 34-27

Seattle @ Atlanta

In the old school pro wrestling Shocking Heel Turn of the Year, Jason stunned me by going against the Seahawks and picking the Falcons, who he's hated so much that he had them missing the playoffs before the season.  It's hard not to love Seattle after their roaring comeback last week in DC, and of course, everyone hates Atlanta until they win a fucking playoff game and prove themselves worthy of the love.  Well, why the hell do we both have them doing so this weekend?  Well, Jason likes the concept of Atlanta being the very rare underdog favorite, meaning the hate has come their way so hard this week that they've felt like the underdogs of the weekend even though they're 3-point favs.  He's going with the Dirty Birds building up frustration all year and especially in this two-week waiting period and exploding all over the Seahawks in a relentless rage.  In this episode of Everybody Hates Atlanta, we like the Falcons to overcome.  My rationale is that Russell Wilson simply can't play marvelous football every game in his rookie year.  For no reason than a hunch, I have him making the key throwing error to lose it late, maybe to Jas's X-factor.  Our X-factors:  Mine is Falcons QB Matt Ryan.  Another obvious one, I know, but shit, it's all about Matty Ice.  Atlanta and coach Mike Smith steered Dirk Koetter's offense towards Matty Ice running the show, all for this moment, all because they know passing wins championships in this era.  If Ryan can't come through, the Falcons are fucked.  Jason's is Falcons CB Asante Samuel.  Samuel's schema seems to be get toasted, make the big INT, get burned, break up the big pass, so Jason likes the veteran to eventually make the big INT and shut down the less-than-threatening Seattle WRs.  Like the Greatest Show On Turf Rams, who would give up huge yardage only to watch CB Aeneas Williams sneak in for the key INT, Jas likes Samuel to come up with the play right when the Falcons need it most.

My Pick:  Atlanta 31-27

Houston @ New England

Houston took a trip to Foxboro in Week 14 on Monday night and proceeded to get butt-fucked 42-14 in a game I called the JV vs. the Varsity.  As much as I looked down on the Texans, I was still stunned that they came in so seemingly unprepared for the speed and excellence of the Patriots.  I'm taking Houston to cover this weekend basically because I can't believe the Texans would witness that New England machine and how they execute a mere five weeks ago and allow themselves to be embarrassed in that same fashion again.  I saw a different Houston team last week against Cincinnati, and Jason specifically cited that game as no proof that Houston was any good.  I also said that I still didn't like them after that game, but I've come around a little.  The defense was much better than it had been in the last month, and I can forgive the offense settling for field goals because they were, after all, playing a tough defense in the Bengals.  Similar to Jason's opinion that Atlanta has heard the rumblings and accusations of "Fraud!", I think Houston's had to listen to a week of chatter that the Patriots have it easy in this one, like a 2nd bye week, a certain curly-haired little girl might say, and they will bring an angry, defiant attitude to Gillette Stadium and scare the hell out of every Pats fan for a full four quarters.  New England's defense likes to let teams hang around no matter how many scores Tom Brady and the offense put up, and they may not put up as many scores if the Texans D has another good game.  Jason likes the Patriots big.  He was strong in his assertion that Cincinnati did nothing against a Houston team that only posted 19 points, and he doesn't think that will happen again with the Pats on the field.  Our X-factors:  Mine is Texans WR Kevin Walter.  QB Matt Schaub can key on some targets and stay fixated even when they're covered, and while Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels are great targets to have, Schaub has to take advantage of Walter on the other side of the field in single coverage and use him when the Patriots least expect it.  Jason's is Texans TE James Casey.  Jason hates how Schaub sometimes keys in on Casey, who is not a great target to have.  If Schaub finds himself hurriedly shoveling attempts Casey's way, it will be another long day for the Houston Texans.

My Pick:  New England 27-23

Thursday, January 10, 2013

Devils Advocate: Division Weekend

Once again, why each team will win their game, in much less detail....

Baltimore at Denver
  • Why the Ravens will win: Several teams seem to coast through the regular season because making the playoffs is a foregone conclusion. The Ravens are the poster boys for that type of team. They win because Joe Flacco steps it up and outduels Peyton Manning the way he did with Tom Brady in the AFC Championship last season.
  • Why the Broncos will win: That game I just referenced that Joe Flacco outdueled Tom Brady in? The Ravens lost that one, too.
Packers at 49ers
  • Why the Packers will win: The Pack are healthy at just the right time. Chasing Joe Webb around is good experience for chasing Colin Kaepernick around all night. The 49ers are the main team that Aaron Rodgers feels slighted by for not drafting him, so he'll be on a mission to shove it up the Niners asses.
  • Why the 49ers will win: Colin Kaepernick is NOT Joe Webb. Justin Smith plays and makes a huge impact in shutting down the Packers prolific passing game.
Seahawks at Falcons
  • Why the Seahawks will win: They are confident now after overcoming a 14-point deficit on the road in the postseason. The Seattle offense looks very comfortable and confident, and Marshawn Lynch should have a nice time running against a suspect Falcon run D.
  • Why the Falcons will win: Time to open it up, boys! The Falcons are loaded with weapons in the passing game, easily able to go 4 deep at WR and oh yeah, have the greatest Tight End to ever play, so the Falcons win if they can overpower the Seattle secondary and take advantage of a weaker D-line missing Chris Clemons.
Texans at Patriots
  • Why the Texans will win: Unless Tom Brady's knee takes an inexplicable 45 degree turn in the wrong direction, a la RGIII, they wont. See, I'm trying to give the Texans more bulletin board material so they can win the game. Let me know if it worked!
  • Why the Patriots will win: They showed up. *****BULLETIN BOARD*****

Tuesday, January 8, 2013

NFL Wild Card '13: What I Learned

  • I don't know what I was supposed to learn from the Cincinnati-Houston game.  Maybe that some stats can be ignored and some can't, although I fear that I will die trying to figure out which is which.  Only after I decided to pick Cincy did I hear the stat that said three times have the same two teams faced each other in the Wild Card round in consecutive years, and the winning team always won the next year as well.  However, I still don't think Houston is any good.  That was the best all-around game they've played in weeks, but I don't know if that's because they decided to put it all together in the playoffs or because that's how weak and pathetic the Bengals are.  Really, Andy Dalton?  127 yards and a pick?  That's your big output in your 2nd playoff game??  I'm very disappointed in the Bengals.  I thought they were better than they are.  Guess they're just bumslayers after all.  They had protection problems early, just like last year when the Texans defensive line, specifically J.J. Watt, made whoopee in the Cincy backfield, and then shit just went to hell from there.  I don't know if it's the Houston talent on defense or the atmosphere or everything combined, but the Bengals offense became paralyzed.  The Houston D came to play, make no mistake about that, and Cincinnati's offense never found a way to overcome.  At that point, the Houston running attack came back from the dead, and Arian Foster put the Bengals away and sealed the casket for yet another year.  Not that Houston was perfect; after all, they quit scoring in the 4th quarter and dared Cincy to mount a comeback.  But they knew the Bengals were limp and powerless, and so did everyone watching.
  • Speaking of limp and powerless, how do you make a one-dimensional team even more one-dimensional?  Simple--make them play 2nd stringers at other positions.  Say what you will about Christian Ponder, and I do, but the Minnesota Vikings had a significantly much lesser chance of upsetting the Green Bay Packers with backup QB Joe Webb than they did with Ponder.  And you know how shitty Andy Dalton was?  He passed for less yards and less TDs than Webb!  Yeah, I know the TD was the definition of garbage time, so much so that it literally happened two seconds after my wife said, "I think this game is over."  You gotta respect the one dimension of the Vikings, though.  Adrian Peterson gaining 99 yards even though the whole defense was totally focused on him in a win-or-go-home situation?  Impressive.  The D would flow to him on every run, and sometimes they would stuff him for no gain, but sometimes he would dance and cut and find yardage where there seemingly was none.  Vikings fans had to be excited when Minny took the opening drive for a FG, with Webb breaking some open-field runs to present a dual rushing attack similar to what the Redskins or Seahawks run.  But then the time came eventually where Webb had to make a pass or two, and his accuracy was so atrocious, you would have thought his last name was Sanchez.  The only thing I observed about the Packers was, Aaron Rodgers still isn't perfectly in sync with his receivers, but he shouldn't expect to be considering how much time they've all missed throughout the season.  The key to a long Green Bay playoff run will be if Rodgers can get on the same page with his guys before the clock runs out.  Against Joe Webb, it wasn't a concern.
  • Even the NFL.com game recap for Colts-Ravens lazily reverted to the easy narrative:  "The previously struggling Ravens defense was staunch, no doubt inspired by star linebacker Ray Lewis appearing in his final home game before retiring."  Wha??  Look, I'll give you that defenders were better prepared to perform on every play knowing their exact assignments because Lewis was able to communicate with them.  I'll give you that the Baltimore D was better just because players could play their usual positions instead of sliding around making up for Lewis's absence.  But anyone who tries to tell me that the players played harder and better in a playoff game than they would have just because they were inspired by Lewis and his RoboCop apparatus on his arm will get throat-punched by me.  It's so stupid.  Baltimore won because the defense was able to stifle Andrew Luck and the Colts consistently when they crossed midfield, and because Anquan Boldin caught some balls that Joe Flacco threw to the heavens in desperation.  Ray-Ray's mere presence had nothing to do with it, although his play was a contributing factor.  I still don't know what's wrong with Flacco.  He did not look sharp again in this game, and his deep balls were basically up for grabs, with the veteran Boldin winning those battles with his athleticism.  But all was good for Baltimore, because Indianapolis looked like what they were, which is a team that hasn't been in the playoffs in a while.  Luck showed his talent with long drives, then the offense bogged down in the red zone and they couldn't find a single touchdown.  On the other side, Flacco may have had a terrible game if it wasn't for Boldin and Colts CB Cassius Vaughn, who was so overmatched that he made the Ravens not need an offensive coordinator.  I learned that at Baltimore is no place to pick a rookie QB to cover the spread in the playoffs.  I also learned that the Colts will have a hellacious passing game once they find a big possession WR.  All those fleas running around and catching midrange throws were great, but in the red zone, they needed one guy with some size who could haul in a 10 or 15-yarder and score, and they don't have that guy on the roster yet.
  • Jason and I will both be glad to take the Seattle win over Washington, which looked like a bad pick when the Redskins led 14-0.  I'll be happy to furthermore take a bow after calling for the Seahawks to amass close to 400 yards of offense against that mental midget Jim Haslett and the Washington D.  Seattle got to 380, so, ahem, I believe I had that one.  Before I address the big controversy coming out of this game, I need to get to a few observations just so I don't forget.  First, don't toss aside the Seattle comeback as just something they accomplished because Robert Griffin III was hurt.  That was an absolutely stunning comeback.  To be down 14-0 in a hostile environment with a rookie QB who was only 3-5 on the road in the regular season is a monstrous task to overcome.  But they did it, and I couldn't have been more impressed.  Doesn't guarantee them success in the next round, but it was just awesome to watch.  Washington's defense managed some early stops, but they started to resort to the blitz, which got them this far but really is no way to succeed long-term, and Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch embarrassed them.  The Lynch TD run in the 4th quarter with Seattle down 14-13 was I believe on a 3rd-and-5, and it was a brilliant play call against the blitz.  Which brings me to my next point, which is, Seattle ain't Dallas.  Whatever you think of coach Pete Carroll and the players, Seattle is a damn good team, unlike the Cowboys.  The Skins can beat the Cowboys and win the NFC Least with a one-legged QB and constant blitzing, but they couldn't beat Seattle that way.  And speaking of the one-legged QB, now let's talk about the controversy surrounding RG3.  Should coach Mike Shanahan played Griffin after he was clearly less than 100% hobbling around out there?  Should he have yanked him after he almost walked to the sideline during his 8-yard scramble two plays before he twisted his knee in the 4th and went down for good?  Should Shanny not have started him at all?  Well, I hate to sound flimsy, but this situation isn't easily answered.  I do have a straight answer--I wouldn't have started him because as I said before the game, his lack of speed on the outside makes him a different QB, and one not ready to play yet, in my opinion.  However, I probably don't play him last week against Dallas, either, and he won.  And he was winning 14-0 in the 1st quarter in this game.  So how do I make that call?  Shanahan can't yank Griffin in the middle of a game he's winning after he won the division last week.  No coach does that, although that would show real leadership and guts by doing something no one's done before.  That's my conclusion, that Shanahan can't be crushed for letting Griffin play after he succeeded last week in the same limited condition, but that he probably should have held him out anyway.  And as for Griffin, I have to feel sorry for him and admire his courage trying to lead his team in an obviously injured state.  That said, it's been reported that Griffin assured Shanny that he could go by telling him something to the effect of he knows the difference between hurt and injured, and he's just hurt.  Um, Rob?  The knee had to be held together by a bulky brace, and every time you tried to hit top speed, the pain overcame you and you had to throttle down to 1st gear.  You're a hell of a player, but you actually don't know the difference between hurt and injured, and your bravado may have cost the Redskins a playoff win.

Dre--105.2 + 4 = 109.2 pts; Jay--98.0 + 6 = 104.0 pts

Saturday, January 5, 2013

NFL Wild Card '13

It's playoff time!  We're happy to get to the real nut-cutting time of year, especially so that we can move on from the humiliating defeat we took last week at the hands of Coin.  Seriously, I went 11-5 in Week 17 and I couldn't beat a fucking coin?!?  Anyhow, let's set up our playoff format once again.  Simply take our season percentages, multiply by 200, and there's what we start the playoffs with.  From there, it's 2 points for each Wild Card win, 3 points in the Conference Semis, 4 points in the Conf. Finals, and a big 5 points for picking the Super Bowl correctly.  This year, it's me with the advantage and the pressure:

                                   Dre                             Jay



Season 131-118-7
122-127-7


0.526
0.490


x200
x200
Playoff Points
=105.2
=98.0


With that, here's our Wild Card picks, which provided us with lots of topics and excitement but only found us differing on one pick:


Fav Spread Dog

Dre Jay

Saturday




HOU (12-4) Cin (10-6)

Cin Hou

Sat. Nite




GB (11-5) Min (10-6)

GB GB

Sunday




BAL (10-6) 7    Ind (11-5)

Ind Ind
Sea (11-5) 3    WASH(10-6)

Sea Sea


Cincinnati @ Houston

For the second season in a row, the NFL kicks off Wild Card weekend with its least star-studded matchup.  The most famous person in this game is probably Houston WR Andre Johnson, and he's not a household name at all outside of football fanatics.  But there are a couple of intriguing factors to see here:  The Texans have two more wins than the Bengals this time, whereas last year, they only had one, and last year, they had to start rookie QB T.J. Yates because Matt Schaub was hurt.  Well, you'd think the Texans would be much bigger favorites this time around.  Nope, they were 4-point favs last year, and they're 4½-point fave this time around, which means a combo of the public respects Cincy as a tougher out this time and the public hates H-Town in part thanks to their play in the last few weeks.   I had to go with Cincy to win here.  I've been saying Houston isn't very good all year, and they seem to be hot to prove it lately.  This is the Revenge of Dalton and Green, as the two Bengals stars came in to Reliant Stadium last season against a backup QB and couldn't get it done.  This time, I say they run it up and blast an overrated Texans squad by two touchdowns.  Cincy's got a veteran RB to help move the ball in BenJarvus Green-Ellis, they've got a nasty defense that will make gaining yards tough, and I think Houston's playing bumtastic enough for the Bengals to slay some more bums.  Jason will take Houston because he says that whatever their issues, they're not bums, and they should overmatch Cincinnati easy.  The Texans pissed away their first-round bye with their crappy play, but Jay thinks that may be a good thing.  Sometimes that's what it takes to wake a sleeping giant, so he likes Gary Kubiak's team to go Hulk-Smash.  Our X-factors:  Mine is Bengals KR Brandon Tate.  Houston's been so bad that even the special teams has suffered, giving up a big TD last week to the Colts' future Hall-of-Famer Deji Karim.  I like Tate to break one and take momentum early.  Jason's is Texans CB Jonathan Joseph.  Cincy still relies way too much on stud WR A.J. Green for big plays, so it's Joseph's job as the team's best cover corner to limit Green and stifle him in coverage.

My Pick:  Cincinnati 37-23

Minnesota @ Green Bay

Jay already highlighted my issue with the Vikings in his Devil's Advocate feature.  This smells strongly like a Barry Sanders playoff game.  Don't know what a Barry Sanders playoff game looks like?  Go Google it.  I'll wait.  Back?  Ok, you see how bad he was in the playoffs, especially on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field.  Barry would make everyone look bad during the regular season, but unfortunately, he couldn't get the motor running once the stakes were raised.  Now, this streak that Vikings RB Adrian Peterson is on is something fierce.  But it's all regular season.  Every obstacle in his way the last month, he's ran through it, around it, and over it.  We're both saying, great, awesome, now do it again.  It will be frozen tundra weather on Saturday night, too--frigid in the 20s with flurries.  Who really thinks Green Bay will let Peterson embarrass them for the second week in a row, this time on their home turf in the playoffs?  And if the Pack weren't going to play Peterson as if he were the only guy on the field, they have to snicker at the thought that Christian Ponder, leader of the 31st-ranked passing game in the league, has been battling a sore throwing elbow.  It's funny, Jason said that he thought AP would get his, but the end zone would be too far and there would be lots of Blair Walsh kicking for Minny, and that wouldn't be good enough against Aaron Rodgers and the Pack.  But when I asked Jay what Peterson "getting his" consisted of, he estimated about 80 yards, and that's about what I said.  But I labeled that as Peterson getting shut down.  I can't predict a Sanders-like day totally, which would be like -4 yards, but I do think that 70 or 80 yards for someone so clearly the only offensive threat counts as shutting him down.  Either way, Rodgers has his full array of receivers, and we like Green Bay squoosh.  I'd love to see Rodgers on a pitcher's mound testing out a radar gun.  Yes, I'm ready for Spring Training, not because I'm through with football, but because I'm cold.  Our X-factors:  Mine is Packers LB A.J. Hawk.  Someone for the love of God needs to be waiting for Peterson to break outside and get big yards on the perimeter, because he does it only every run, and Hawk needs to be that guy.  If Peterson gets beyond the linebackers and is tackled often by the backfield, that Packers front seven is playing extremely bad football.  Jason's is Packers K Mason Crosby.  The blowout may hit a bit of a snag if Crosby shanks early FG attempts and turns the crowd against him, giving the Vikes momentum and smothering his already-light air of confidence.

My Pick:  Green Bay 34-3

Indianapolis @ Baltimore

Yes, it's Old Colts vs. New Colts as Jason observed a couple of days ago.  But it's also a fiery battle of inspiration vs. inspiration, and I didn't even realize it until Dan Le Batard brought it up on his radio show.  If the Colts bring in their coach on their Chuckstrong carriage but they're met by the Ray Lewis War Dance, surrounded by fans with lighters in tribute to Lewis and his pending retirement, which inspiration wins out?  And does anyone actually realize that this inspiration shit doesn't mean anything once the fucking ball is kicked off??  No one's thinking about the cancer-stricken coach or the old fart about to retire when the whistle blows.  Anyway, Jason and I see the Inspiration Bowl resulting the same way, although we have it happening differently.  We both like Baltimore to win but Indy to cover the touchdown.  It's so hard to put trust in Baltimore to cover after their tumultuous season, even though they happened to end that season with a division title.  On the other hand, it's hard to trust the Colts to bring their creampuff 11-5 record into that hostile environment and come away with a win behind a rookie QB (Andrew Luck) who likes to throw INTs.  I think Luck will lead the Colts back late and earn a backdoor cover because he's led late comebacks all year.  It's when he seems most comfortable.  Jason actually thinks he'll come out firing and grab an early advantage and the Ravens will fight back and win a close one late.  Our X-factors:  Mine is Ravens FB Vonta Leach.  Indy wants to get pounded on the ground.  Indy loves to get pounded on the ground.  I don't think the Ravens will survive all through the playoffs trying to pound teams, but if there's one game where Ray Rice should run wild behind his moose of a fullback for about 30 carries, it's this one.  Jason's is Ravens LB Terrell Suggs.  T-Sizzle has been held back for a playoff run almost as cautiously as Ray Lewis, so if there's a time to wake up and do what you're paid lots of dough to do, Jason says it's now for Suggs and his pass-rushing skillz.

My Pick:  Baltimore 26-20

Seattle @ Washington

Here's the TV main event of the day, two rookie QBs setting the league on fire, one with the commercials and the (cornball) smile to make him potentially a megastar, the other leading a squad blowing teams out with regularity.   And we love the team blowing people out and lighting fools up.  The Seahawks are just playing too well to ignore, and the betting public agrees, making them the only road favorite of the weekend against a team in the Redskins that has not lost since their bye week and is featuring the best running game in the world.  The two Washington rooks are awesome, but one of them, QB Robert Griffin III, was running at a very very reduced speed than what he had been running all season, and I am basing my pick mostly on that.  If Griffin is at full speed, I may have to go with the Skins, but anyone saw Sunday night against Dallas that he's not close to full speed.  That factor cannot be overstated.  When Griffin would turn the corner on any run before the knee injury four weeks ago, he'd be a threat to go to the end zone.  With that brace on his left right knee, he's a threat to go out of bounds, and that's about it.  Totally different offensive attack.  I foresee the Seattle cornerbacks halting the Washington receivers from sprinting as far downfield as they'd like, curtailing the number of big pass plays for Griffin, and that leaves him and RB Alfred Morris as sitting ducks for the Hawks to tee off on.  Kai Forbath should see a lot of FG attempts.  On the other side, it's offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell against defensive coordinator Jim Haslett.  That's a mental mismatch.  Seattle should approach 400 yards of total offense as QB Russell Wilson toys with the inferior Washington secondary before letting RB Marshawn Lynch go Beast Mode in the 4th quarter.  Jason says that Washington won the worst division in the NFL and they're just happy to be there, and that it will be fun to watch genius coach Mike Shanahan and his doofus son get pumped.  Jay compares Wilson to Steve Young in that he's not looking to run first but rather pass, but his scrambling is so good that he has big success running as well, as opposed to a Bobby Three-Sticks or Colin Kaepernick, who seem to look to run more than pass.  Our X-factors:  Mine is Griffin III's left right knee.  Hate to be obvious, but that knee means a totally different game if it's healthy and ready to absorb a routine RG3 game and all that encompasses.  Everything's up for grabs if his knee is healthy, but I'm betting it's not.  Jason's is Seahawks LB Bobby Wagner.  It will be up to Wagner and the LB corps to contain not just Griffin, but Morris as well, neutralizing that punishing Redskins run game.

My Pick:  Seattle 30-19

Thursday, January 3, 2013

Devils Advocate: Wild Card Weekend

This postseason, instead of looking back, I'm going to dedicate my post to looking forward to the games on the slate each weekend, breaking down why each team will win their matchup.

Cincinnati at Houston
  • Why the Bengals will win: Despite every team knowing that the Bengals entire offense is predicated on tossing the ball to AJ Green A LOT, Houston will try to "stop the run."
  • Why the Texans will win: They beat this same Bengal team last year in the Wild Card round starting TJ Fucking Yates at QB, so Matt Schaub should be fine.
Minnesota at Green Bay
  • Why the Vikings will win: Adrian Peterson. That's about it. He's the only reason they're in the postseason, and the only chance the Vikings have to beat the Pack. The Packers know what's coming, let's see them stop it.
  • Why the Packers will win: Adrian Peterson. He's all the Vikings have, and we saw this every year when the Lions, another dome team, would roll into Lambeau with Barry Sanders and Sanders would proceed to gain -4 yards on 14 carries in the cold.
New Colts at Old Colts (or is it the other way around?) ah fuck it, Indianapolis at Baltimore
  • Why the Colts will win: Chuckstrong, baby!
  • Why the Ravens will win: Ray-Ray's retirement lap. Plus, they're the better team.
Seahawks at Redskins
  • Why the Seahawks will win: This might actually be the most interesting game of the weekend, as two rookie QBs go head to head. Seattle will have both their big, physical corners on the field to overpower the Washington pass attack while the rest of the Seahawks D chase RG3 around to contain him. Russell Wilson wants to show that he should be rookie of the year and will be highly motivated.
  • Why the Redskins will win: Despite their coach bailing on them, the Skins are the second hottest team in football (Broncos), with a dynamic QB and competent backup, so if Griffin gets KTFO'd, Cousins can still lead the Skins to a win.
After my week 17 flop, losing to a damn coin, I've spotted Dre a nice lead going into the playoffs. Like he said to me a few years back: there's no excuses now.

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

2012-13 What I Learned About Each Team In One Sentence

Cowboys--Tony Romo can make the key mistakes in the key games with the best of 'em, but a real head coach finds a way to overcome that.
Eagles--Nightmare Team will get the complete overhaul in the offseason and may not compete for a while.
Giants--In a division filled with big plays and fireworks, they gave up too many and didn't make enough.
Redskins--Can't question the Shanahan Boyz and their ability to create monster offense when they get the athletes they want.
Bears--As a fan I'm scared to death that they will sacrifice a quality defensive program for an offensive-minded coach who still won't motivate Jay Cutler to reach his heights.
Lions--What a crappy job from top to bottom of taking a squad with tremendous talent and leading them to a 4-12 mark.
Packers--Steady Aaron Rodgers gives them a chance to compete even with an injured defense and receivers and subpar running game.
Vikings--It's a testament to Adrian Peterson that they made the playoffs with no passing attack and below average defense, sparing coach Leslie Frazier one more year.
Falcons--Succeeded in making their success on offense all about Matt Ryan and the receivers and much less about the running game, which may help them go farther in the playoffs.
Panthers--Season was slashed when the offense struggled in the first half of the season, but real question is still why is the D so terrible under Ron Rivera?
Saints--Congrats for giving up more yards than any defense ever, underscoring their need for a bounty system in order to succeed.
Buccaneers--Finally addressed their atrocious defense and QB Josh Freeman was all-world for a while, and now it's time to find better coaches and consistency.
Cardinals--Embarrassing QB carousel resulted in coach Ken Whisenhunt's firing, but it's the new GM that will have to address personnel problems.
Rams--They can rely on a high floor with coach Jeff Fisher's football knowledge, but with no WRs, what's their ceiling?
49ers--Coach Insane runs this team in an extremely unique way, and those great athletes have to stay alert, which might keep their attention long enough to make a title run.
Seahawks--49ers Lite, with a loopy college coach keeping an electric atmosphere which brings out the best every week in his guys.
Bills--Time for a regime change, and maybe the new guy can find a QB that can maximize the solid ground game and produce more points.
Dolphins--The definition of mediocre, they ranked 27th in offense and 21st in defense and it's hard to see them improving much in either.
Patriots--Always fun to see Brady and Belichick take some early season lumps, wipe the blood, and start slashing through the league.
Jets--World's most media-covered bad team must find new answers on offense, now.
Ravens--Can't win a title changing coordinators three weeks before the playoffs, and can't win a title without a QB able to take the top off the defense consistently.
Bengals--You can count on Cincinnati to physically bruise a lesser opponent, but they're not so tough when they pick on someone their own size.
Browns--The senior citizen QB experiment produced mixed results, which is better than many expected, but still not good enough.
Steelers--When the offensive coordinator and the star QB with two rings don't get along all season, those handful of extra losses that resulted were enough to knock them out of the playoffs.
Texans--Solid offense and solid defense should result in solid team, but they failed several tests against better teams, and they seem very vulnerable.
Colts--They earned props for building a great record against mostly bad teams, but they have many holes left to patch before they are serious contenders.
Jaguars--Nothing is good enough on offense, defense, or coaching to suggest marked improvement anytime soon.
Titans--Coach Mike Munchak is slowly building a tough, physical team, but the process is too slow and it's not explosive enough offensively.
Broncos--Peyton Manning is unreal, they get props for beating all of the bad teams in their way, and having home field in the playoffs make them ultra scary.
Chiefs--The stench of the Jovan Belcher incident hangs, but the team produced its own stench all season long.
Raiders--It's a different kind of chaos than what they had under Al Davis, but no doubt, this franchise is in organizational chaos.
Chargers--Hard not to take pity knowing that they had the prolific QB to succeed in Philip Rivers but his best may have already been wasted.