2012 Conf. Finals: What I Learned

• I learned that in this Weekend of Evenly Matched Games, the outcome could be decided on any number of pivotal plays that make you famous, or in some cases, infamous.  Hello, Billy Cundiff!  There are only two reasons for a kicker to gain mainstream notoriety: 1, if he nails a Super Bowl-winning kick, like that Vinatieri fella, or 2, if he royally fucks up a kick and costs his team a title or great shot at a title, like the idiot liquored-up kicker Vanderjagt.  I don't think Cundiff's name historically will be associated with Vanderjagt around the country because his team wasn't a prohibitive favorite like the Colts were, but at least in the Baltimore area, it's gonna be a curse word for years to come.  Lost in that gut-wrenching outcome was a hell of a game in which we may have witnessed the birth of another "elite" quarterback in Joe Flacco.  He's shown flashes many times before, but from the 2nd quarter on, he was on fire, playing better than his counterpart, Tom Brady, though I don't think Brady had the crap game that others are suggesting.  Tom wasn't terrific, but he wasn't bad, either, outside of the deep ball.  (One of the deep balls was picked by my X-factor Lardarius Webb...I believe I had that one.)  Vince Wilfork showed what an impact a nose tackle can have when motivated.  He controlled the game early and late with his run stuffing and pass rushing.  It was only when he got tired that Flacco had time to make plays.  I took notice of Brady and the Patriots kneeling out the 1st half against the Ravens despite having two timeouts.  New England had a lead and they felt that they were going to cruise to the win, so they didn't have to push the issue, and as a result, one of the league's most explosive offenses took their foot off the gas.  There's the spread right there.  Brady couldn't lead that hurry-up offense for a quick TD in a 2-minute drill??  I did admire the Pats succeeding in running the ball into the end zone when they got into the red zone.  Clearly, Brady read the Ravens as being ready to cover Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez on jump ball throws, so he simply called run plays.  If he read a box stacking, I'm sure he would have audibled and gunned the ball to one of his great TEs.  But mostly, I was very impressed with Flacco and the passing game.  He spread the ball around, he made quick decisions, and he almost won the game with no help from his RB Ray Rice, who didn't exactly come up big this year in the playoffs.  WR Lee Evans was a step away from the game-winning TD catch for Baltimore, but it was the right call to say that he didn't have control of the ball long enough to be a catch.  And then, the very bad kick by Cundiff gave the Pats a 3-point win and kept me alive for the season picks championship.  Jason was about to discover that these coin flip picks could go either way, and today, luck wouldn't be on his side.  I certainly didn't see the game going this way because I thought Baltimore would blow New England's doors off.  NE ran that no-huddle offense pretty cleanly and efficiently, and building that early lead before the Ravens could settle down is the reason they survived versus a better all-around team.  The Ravens outgained the Patriots by almost 70 yards, they had better 3rd-down percentage, and Flacco almost threw those 3 TDs that I predicted if not for Evans getting the ball slapped away on the final drive.  I'd pick Baltimore straight up again if they played next week.  But instead, while the talking heads bleated about defense still winning titles, the league's 31st-ranked pass defense and worst overall is in the Super Bowl.  Keep that stat in mind.
• And speaking of infamous, hello, Kyle Williams!  The son of Chicago White Sox GM Kenny Williams made sure that choking and sucking it on the big stage ran through at least two generations.  (Kenny played for the Sox in the '80s, and I watched him, being a Sox fan, so I vividly remember how awful he was.)  The 49ers punt returner only because Ted Ginn couldn't play, Kyle decided to ignore a punt in the 4th quarter that brushed off his knee, allowing the Giants to recover uncontested, and New York took the lead on that possession.  Then in OT, as both teams gave futile efforts to move the ball back and forth and it seemed as if the game was never going to end, Williams caught a punt and started upfield only to get the rock stripped, and New York kicked the game-winning FG on that possession.  Talk about evenly matched--the Niners and Giants had exactly the same number of yards from scrimmage at the end of regulation, as well as obviously the same number of points.  The Giants tried to win the best way they know how, with Eli Manning throwing 58 times, and the Niners tried the best way they know how, with Alex Smith throwing 26 times and trying to manage the game.  And it almost worked.  (Oh, one of Eli's TDs was to my X-factor Mario Manningham...I believe I had that one.)  That's a really interesting way San Francisco is trying to succeed--trying to hit the big plays downfield while still acknowledging the limitations of the QB, who only attempted a handful of passes in this game to actual wide receivers.  I hated it early in the season, but I grew to respect it as they kept getting victories, and I'll be curious to see if they bring in better weapons at WR in an attempt to open things up.  They can still play smashmouth defense if they open up the offense, can't they?  What they can't do is go 0-for-forever trying to convert 3rd down.  That was fucking painful to watch.  But the Giants survived the battle, and they move on to another war with New England.  The Pats can't hit Eli Manning as many times as the Niners did because they're not good enough, and Manning still threw for 316 (oops, that's Tebow's trademarked number, isn't it?) and 2 TDs in rainy conditions.  We know the Giants can hit Tom Brady because they did it in the Super Bowl four years ago and they did it in Week 9 this very season in an upset win at Foxboro.  And yet the Pats are the opening-line favorite because we just can't imagine the Golden Boy losing to the G-Men again despite having--bears repeating again, I think--the league's worst defense.  But it's not like the Giants are free of worries on defense.  Remember, I told you to keep in mind that New England brings the 31st-ranked pass D into this Super Bowl.  Well, New York comes equipped with the 29th-ranked pass defense.  Against Tom Brady.  In a dome.  Yikes.  And they both get bombed on the regular too, and I don't mean drinking.  The Pats give up 8 yards per pass attempt, and the Giants give up 7.5.  Meanwhile, NE achieves 8.4 yards per pass attempt on offense, and NY, 8.6.  That's gotta be the highest matchup of passing offense yards per attempt in the history of the Super Bowl.  It's even higher than last year's matchup between Green Bay and Pittsburgh, both of whom averaged a mere 8.1 ypa.  So whichever way Jason goes, and I'll be going the other way, I'll step out on a limb early for you bettors who want to make an initial wager.  I LOVE THE OVER!!!!!

Dre--104.1 + 8 = 112.1 pts; Jay--113.6 + 0 = 113.6 pts

2012 Conf. Finals

The picks are in, and I'm happy to report that Jason took the opposite of the two picks I wanted to make.  So I don't have to BS my way through this column trying to justify picks that I really didn't want.  Ready for Championship Sunday...let's go!!

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

NE (14-3)	7	Bal (13-4)			Bal	NE
SF (14-3)	2	NYG (11-7)			NY	SF

Baltimore @ New England

Jason thinks this game smells pushy, and that would really suck because a push in any of the three remaining games is as good as a loss for me.  It's all about snatching the points available for myself and surging past Jason to win the picks title.  As for this game, Jason likes New England in a 20-13 type battle, holding off the vaunted Baltimore defense to advance to the Super Bowl. Yes, 20-13 is a push, but he's got NE because when in doubt, take the favorites and give the points in his world.  I like Baltimore to win.  Why?  Well, they kinda did this before, this going up to Foxboro and whooping the Patriots thing.  They did it a couple of years ago, and I'm picking them to do it again because the Pats defense gets to experience a big class hike, going from defending that high school Tebow offense to playing an actual NFL offense.  I think QB Joe Flacco may be primed to break out against that D, especially with veteran teammate Ed Reed pulling his punk card this week.  I call three TD passes for Joe.  I call two rushing TDs and 140 yards for Ray Rice.  And I think the Ravens want to make that one more Super Bowl push for this group of veterans on D, like Ray Lewis and Reed and Terrell Suggs, and I think they're highly motivated to assert defense as still ultimately the element of championship teams.  Tom Brady was jacked up to defeat the Fightin' Tebows, but the Ravens will pose a much more difficult test.   Our X-factors:  Mine is Ravens CB Lardarius Webb.  He's learned some ball-hawking skillz playing with Reed and the rest of those Baltimore vets, and he's gonna need them against Brady and co.  Jason's is Patriots LB Rob Ninkovich.  He likes Nink to keep creating havoc rushing the passer, just as he did in last week's bombing of the Broncos.

My Pick:  Baltimore 41-20

New York Giants @ San Francisco

In this battle of east vs. west, Jason has abandoned ship as if he were an Italian captain, and he's jumping off the New York bandwagon.  Just as I'm boarding.  Great.  Jason was blown away by San Fran last week in their upset of New Orleans, and he's not only riding the 49ers into the Super Bowl, but he's already picking them to win it all!  Now, he's on to something if they can keep combining physical, fast defensive play with big-time offensive firepower, but that 2nd part is my issue.  I said it last week:  Alex Smith cannot have another game like that.  He's not good enough.  Jason likes the sloppy, rainy conditions that are forecast for this game, because he thinks this will slow down the Giants aerial attack.  But I think Eli Manning is playing so well that it won't matter.  He is really going balls out as he tries to back up his preseason claims of being an elite quarterback.  There's a prior meeting this year between these squads to consider:  Niners over Giants 27-20 in Week 10.  The Giants settled for FGs early, and it cost them.  My review of that game said that Smith won that game too, because RB Frank Gore was a non-factor for SF.  And Jason's review said that the G-Men moved the ball at will.  For all the talk of the great Saints offense getting knocked out by the Niners, it wasn't exactly a shining defensive effort.  New Orleans still made the plays they needed to when the time came; it's just that Smith had the game of his life and led two comeback drives.  I am not betting on him to do that shit again.  Our X-factors:  Mine is Giants WR Mario Manningham.  With Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz getting all of the attention for their fabulous catches, Manningham has to take advantage of the weaker SF nickel coverage to make big plays when his teammates are covered.  Jason's is 49ers secondary members Carlos Rogers and Donte Whitner.  He likes what happens when those two athletes make plays on the ball and knock fools out.

My Pick:  New York Giants 30-27

Divisional Round ATS Recap: Endgame

Here we are, three games left to go and a winning pick by me seals the season. After sweating through the Saturday games and two ATS losses to Dre, I needed to be saved by the Giants and the "Discount Double Choke" Packers. The Giant cover made Dre's strategic Mitt Romney-esque flip flop on the Saints/Niners completely meaningless.

• Niners (+3½) 36, Saints 32 - Dre winner, Jason loser - So I'm watching the game with my wife, spelling out all the ways that the Saints could send the game to overtime and still win this pick for me. Lost in that was one hell of a ballgame. The Saints were turning the ball over at an alarming rate, but still managed to take a late lead. It looked like the Niners were moving down for the tying field goal, but Alex Smith roped a pass into TE Vernon Davis, who hung on to the ball with a defender all over him to give San Fran the "upset." Looking back, the Niners seem to score more freely on their home turf, and drawing the weak New Orleans defense was certainly a good matchup for them.
• Patriots (-13½) 45, Broncos 10 - Dre winner, Jason loser - My Divsion Round Saturday ended with a thud, as Tom Brady lit up the Broncos and the Pats defense had all the answers for Tim Tebow that the Steelers didn't. We figured that the Pats would be a little bit smarter about their approach to the Broncos offense, but I didn't see it coming to the degree that Tebow was made a complete non-factor. This is what Bronco fans will get as long as 15 is under center: maddeningly inconsistent play. The Bronco offense looks like a juggernaut on the ground at times, and can hit deep throws when teams sell out against the run, but base defenses give Tebow trouble. Let's see what he can accomplish with a normal offseason of work versus the uncertainty of a lockout. As for the Patriots, that looked like business as usual.
• Ravens 20, Texans (+9) 13 - Both winners - Joe Flacco is starting to feel like Mark Sanchez to me. Flacco has the bonus of being able to make all the throws, but he looks totally lost out there at times. His teammates see as much, bringing Ed Reed to say what we all basically think: that the Ravens need Flacco to step up this week if they have a chance to beat the high powered Pats. The Texans run with a third string QB was bound to end sometime, and they went out with such a whimper here that I predict the Texans will be their own Memorial Preseason Chic Media Darling team going into next season. How could they not be? They're getting all those weapons back....... I can hear it now.
• Giants (+8) 37, Packers 20 - Jason winner, Dre loser - The Packers season ended about as well as a Mediterranean luxury cruise. Too soon? Expecting the Packer defense to step up after being one of the worst of all time was too tall a task, and without generating turnovers the outcame became inevitable. This game was even worse than the score indicated. BOTH Packer touchdown drives were assisted by horrific calls: a botched fumble call that was obvious on replay and not called, and later a blow to the head call on a hit of Aaron Rodgers where the hit was neither late nor near Rodgers head. Without that assistance, we might have been looking at a complete blowout. Joe Buck and Troy Aikman annoy me to no end, but they were dead on in their analysis of the drive leading up to the Hail Mary play that ended the first half. The Giants looked content to run out the clock and go in to halftime up three, but the Packers let Ahmad Bradshaw rip off a 20+ yard run, cross the entire field, AND get out of bounds to stop the clock. This was critical because the Giants had no timeouts. On the next play, Eli Manning threw up a prayer that I could see was going to be caught long before it was. Hakeem Nicks got great position in the end zone and outjumped the Packer defenders. Buck and Aikman belabored the point of how awful the Packer D was in letting Bradshaw run free in their secondary and get out of bounds, but they were right. That hurt to say.

So I need to pick one winner the rest of the way to seal up back-to-back season wins over Dre here at the IMLD blog. I just hope that one win doesn't wait to come til the Super Bowl. Dre is basically relegated to the role of contrarian the rest of the way, needing me to majorly screw up to win this thing. I've done it to him many times over the years, so I'm hoping this isn't karma getting me back for the "Garbage Time Touchdown" call in the Eagles/Pats Super Bowl that got me a season win. It was cheap, but I took it, just as I'm sure Dre would take me going 0-3 the rest of the way. A win's a win.

2012 Conf. Semis: What I Learned

• So if I would have dropped this game with my original pick, the Saints, the season's contest would not have been over between Jason and me.  He would be 12.5 points ahead of me with 13 points still to be had.  Instead, Jason is 9.5 points ahead of me, which means that I still have to take the opposite of his picks for the conference title games because if I only differ on one game and win 4 points, that leaves me 5.5 points behind with the 5-point Super Bowl pick left.  So, as it turns out, Jason could have enjoyed this game to its fullest because it wound up having no effect on how far behind I'd still end up.  I'm sure Jason enjoyed the game anyway, because he texted "What a game!" when it ended.  This thing had a little bit of everything--Saints offense getting it done, 49ers defense responding, 49ers offense shocking everyone by staking San Francisco to a 17-0 lead, Drew Brees and the Saints roaring back, and just big plays back and forth at the end like Ali and Frazier trading bombs to the head.  The tone was set during the very first New Orleans drive, when Brees marched the Saints down the field and hit Pierre Thomas with a pass at the 2-yard line, only to watch Thomas get his lights turned out by safety Donte Whitner and fumble the ball to SF.  From sure TD to TO in one massive hit--the Saints had to know they were in for the fight of their lives right there.  New Orleans had other fumbles throughout the game, a testament to the Niners' physicality.  Yet there the Saints were in the middle of the 4th quarter, with Darren Sproles scampering for a TD catch and putting NO in front.  That means that Alex Smith is going to have to lead a game-winning drive for SF to pull off the upset.  You damn right, I snickered at the thought.  Two minutes later, Smith pulled off a Tebow-like naked bootleg around the left side, and no one touched him because everyone was so shocked, and the Niners led again, and I stood up and slow-clapped Coach Insane, because I have no doubt that Jim Harbaugh drew that one up.  Then Brees scoffed and took 34 seconds to go down the field and hit his stud TE Jimmy Graham for a TD.  Saints back in front, and Smith's gonna have to lead another game-winning drive.  No way, right?  Yes way!  Vernon Davis down the seam, the hardest throw Smith can make because he had to stick it in between defenders, perfect throw, great catch in traffic, tears of joy from Davis--it was Steve Young to Terrell Owens all over again.  The Catch III, they're calling it.  Un-fucking real.  I learned that two weeks in a row, quarterbacks discovered big-play abilities that no one, maybe not even themselves, knew that they possessed--Tebow last week, Smith this week.  This is today's NFL.  Put the ball in the air.  Let your Mandingoes make plays.  Stop being a scared little punk and just do it.  And like Tebow in the next game, I don't believe Smith has another performance like that in him two weeks in a row, just because it would be a monumental leap into superstardom to just find big-play ability and start doing it consistently, and I'm not about to predict that.
• And here's Tim Tebow, leading his army of Jesus freaks into Foxboro to take down Tom Brady and the Patriots, who had not won a playoff game in forever, and you can just feel the magic on Tebow's side, and the Lord is going to show the way to...oh wait, Tebow sucks again, and Brady is highly motivated to show the world who the superior QB is.  And some of the Bill Belichick geniusness was on display as well--TE Aaron Hernandez with a straight run out of the backfield for 43 yards, a merciless pass rush similar to the Week 15 game in Denver that punished Tebow and confused him all night, and even a late 4th-quarter Brady punt on 3rd down to show some sort of weird mercy while also displaying a sense of superiority.  "You're so weak, we'll give you the ball on 3rd down instead of throwing some more and risking a cheap shot on our quarterback.  Here.  Take the damn thing.  We don't need it anymore."  Great fireworks display by New England.  Do that shit against the Houston or Baltimore defense.  As for Denver, it's months of hand-wringing and worrying about committing resources to the Tebow Thing and submitting all hope for your franchise to contend for a title soon.  Have fun with that, Broncos.
• The Houston-Baltimore contest was about as boring and methodical as people suspected it would be, and yet, it was high drama and kept you guessing to the end.  Jacoby Jones, the Texans kick and punt returner, tried his best to bury his team with muffs and fumbles, and the Ravens end up with 17 points in the 1st quarter as a result of the great field position.  A big game for WR Anquan Boldin helped push the Ravens along, as he kept several drives going with tremendous catches.  Curiously, Houston didn't stick their best CB Jonathan Joseph on Boldin, and he lit up the other CBs all day.  The Ravens didn't need the other starting WR Torrey Smith because Boldin was the man.  Houston covered the number because they got good field position from their own defense making big plays, sacking QB Joe Flacco several times, and that was enough to let them score 10 points in the 2nd quarter to get within 4 points, and they were able to hold on.  Their stud players showed up on offense as well--RB Arian Foster and WR Andre Johnson brought their "A" games.  Ray Rice never got going for Baltimore, but that should change next week at the New England defense.  The three INTs snuffed out a T.J. Yates comeback attempt, but let's see the Ravens do that next week against the New England offense.
• And forgive me for not getting too deep into breaking down how the Giants beat the Packers, because the numbers should tell the story--2 fumbles by Green Bay RBs, both lost.  Fumble by QB Aaron Rodgers, lost.  INT thrown by Rodgers.  Four sacks by the New York defense.  And most importantly, so many dropped passes that I lost count.  The Giants offensive output wasn't the problem, because that was to be expected against Green Bay's pitiful defense.  It was up to Rodgers and the offense to do what they did to make the Packers 15-1, and that's execute and succeed more times than the opposition.  And that's impossible when big plays are simply dropped with no defenders anywhere near the fucking ball.  Some teams respond well to the bye week, some get thrown off rhythm.  No telling what can happen with a certain team.  The two plays I will bring up that also signaled a bad night for the Pack would be the 2nd half Hail Mary and the Rodgers fumble.  The Hail Mary was huge because the G-Men led 13-10, and I thought they would be content with less than 30 seconds left running out the clock and going into halftime.  But the Packers D was so inept that they allowed Ahmad Bradshaw to make a big run into Green Bay territory AND get out of bounds to stop the clock, and with six seconds left, Eli Manning heaved a Hail Mary pass into the end zone.  This is where it got even stranger:  I have never in all my years of watching football seen a Hail Mary pass with that many receivers on that side of the end zone.  There had to be four Giants WRs there!  I knew it would get caught before it came down, I just didn't know by whom.  But usually on a Hail Mary, two or three WRs take one side of the end zone and the remainders take the other.  I've never seen four guys on one side waiting for the ball.  Hakeem Nicks wound up going to the high point and snatching the rock, but if he didn't, some other Giant would because there weren't enough Packers in the area.  They apparently thought that Eli was going to run for it or something.  Then the Pack take the ball to start the 3rd quarter and march down the field, culminating with Rodgers pulling off a pump fake to get the cornerback out of position and set up WR Greg Jennings for the most wide-open TD of his life.  One small problem--New York has some great players on the defensive line, and one of them is named Osi Umenyiora, and Osi popped the ball out of Rodgers' hands like he was swatting a forbidden toy out of a child's grip, and the drive ended with that turnover, and you got the uneasy feeling that Green Bay was going to be so out of sync that they wouldn't be able to come back and beat a 9-7 division champion at home.  And sure enough, they couldn't.  And now the Giants get to go to a much easier offensive opponent in San Francisco.  Eli and coach Tom Coughlin may get to yet another improbable Super Bowl.  And even if they don't, dopes like me who keep doubting them have to give them mad props for what they've accomplished thus far.

Dre--95.1 + 9 = 104.1 pts; Jay--107.6 + 6 = 113.6 pts

2012 Conf. Semis

Because I'm not a fan of the term "Divisional Round."  Just sounds clunky and inelegant, kinda like me actually.

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

	Saturday
NO (14-3)	3½	SF (13-3)			SF	NO
	Sat. Nite
NE (13-3)	13½	Den (9-8)			NE	Den
	Sunday
BAL (12-4)	9	Hou (11-6)			Hou	Hou
GB (15-1)	8	NYG (10-7)			GB	NY

New Orleans @ San Francisco

So I'm disagreeing with Jason on three games again this round, and because there just aren't many points left to gain after this week, I'm fucked if I don't run the table this weekend.  This is one where I changed my pick, and just like when Jay changes a a pick and gets it wrong and I ride him relentlessly, I will never live it down if the Saints go to the Bay and house the 49ers.  But really, I felt sick about this pick all week.  I'm sticking to my vision of a Saints-Packers NFC final, but this number frightened the heck out of me, especially that hook.  It's a big number anyway when you consider that SF is the home team coming off a bye.  But the hook is what I am relying on here.  It smells like a 3-point game, and it smells like a relatively low-scoring contest.  As I've made it known, as great as Drew Brees and NO are, I don't think they're the same team on grass.  Those 30s and 40s they're running up at the Superdome turn into 20s on the road, and the case can be made that SF won't make it into the 20s with their pop-gun passing game.  But they can do it even if the offense doesn't provide; a pick-6 or sack-fumble, and boom, the Niners are right there.  Jason's on record--the words he used in taking New Orleans were "No shot" and "31-17 Saints."  Again, I was right along with him all week, but a nagging feeling is causing me to go with the underdog, just like I did last week with Detroit.  Oy.  Our X-factors:  These could be called our "No Factors," because Jason pointed out how little impact our X-factors made last weekend.  Hell, one of mine, Broncos QB Brady Quinn, never touched the Goddamn field.  Yet we're back with more X-factors, because getting embarrassed has never taught us any lessons.  Mine is 49ers LB Aldon Smith.  A 22-year-old rookie pass rushing LB?  Yep.  If he gets off and puts Brees on his ass, the Niners can hang tough with the Saints.  His 14 regular season sacks suggest that he'll be a handful.  Jason's is 49ers WR Michael Crabtree.  Any downfield movement by Alex Smith and the sad SF passing game will have to incorporate the only decent WR left, Crabtree.  If Smith gets into a rhythm with anyone outside of TE Vernon Davis, odds are it will be Crabtree.

My Pick:  New Orleans 23-20

Denver @ New England

It feels like only yesterday that the Broncos were racking up over 200 yards of offense in the 1st quarter against the New England Patriots, and then pissing it all away in getting blown out by the Pats.  It was Week 15, actually, and in my review, I cited that 1st quarter as all the proof you need that the Patriots were not on the road to the Super Bowl.  No defense that shitty against the likes of Tim Tebow and the rest of the Denver offense would get close to the Super Bowl.  Well, little did I think that the Pats would wind up drawing those Broncos in their first playoff game.  Okay, so New England will get close to a Super Bowl by virtue of putting to death the Tebow Thing once and for all.  How am I so sure?  Well, this game's in Massachusetts and not Denver, this game has real stakes, hopefully Bill Belichick watched intently and intensely the tape from Denver's victory over Pittsburgh and learned a lot of things, and hopefully Tom Brady is as offended by the praise heaped upon Tebow as most of the rest of the world is.  One got the feeling that Brady wanted to show everyone how a real QB does business in Denver a few weeks ago, or at least, that's what I took out of Brady calling his own number repeatedly and rushing for TDs instead of just throwing them.  I'm betting on Tom Terrific being similarly motivated on Saturday night.  I'm also betting on one more thing that I'm totally pulling out of my arse:  I am hoping that the New England D will not take the unnecessary risks that the Steelers D did last week under coordinator Dick LeBeau.  Those Pittsburgh defensive backs were waaaay out of position on some of those Tebow throws, including on the 80-yarder in OT that ended it.  I believe that New England's defense is so crappy that they will have to play a basic, vanilla D to try and keep the Broncos offense in check, and that will result in players defending Tebow's passes when they're supposed to.  Unless Tebow developed serious pump-fake and play-action skillz in the last seven days, I'm hoping that his throws will be predictable enough to defend.  The Pats can then gamble and jump the throws because they're in the right damn spot to begin with.  Jason is on the Tebow Bandwagon, baby!  Actually, he thinks that number is way too high for the Pats D to cover and is taking the smart pick, Denver + nearly two touchdowns.  Our X-factors:  Mine is Patriots DE Mark Anderson.  It was Anderson who busted through in Week 15 and started disrupting the Broncos offense, causing a fumble and sacking Tebow twice.  A repeat performance at home would be delightful to my eyes.  Jason's is Broncos punter Britton Colquitt.  WTF?!  Yes, Jason thinks the Denver punter is going to play a key role.  When Tebow has bad drives, as he's wont to do, it will be up to Colquitt to place Brady and the Pats in bad field position, or else it could be a very long night for the Denver defense.  They're gonna need a lot of help.

My Pick:  New England 38-20

Houston @ Baltimore

Easily the mot boring game of the weekend, it will be the closest by my prediction.  It felt like a really close game when I first heard that this would be the matchup, and it still feels that way to me.  I have to admit that there are a couple of things that worry me about this one.  First, it wasn't close in Week 6 when the Ravens at home beat up the Matt Schaub-led Texans 29-14 and covered a 7½-point spread.  Baltimore was coming off a bye, just as they are this time.  And Texans cover CB Jonathan Joseph was active and assigned to stick with Ravens WR Anquan Boldin.  The result: Boldin went for 8 catches and 132 yards.  Oh no.  That game caused Jason to call Baltimore "the most complete team in the NFL" in his Week 6 recap.  That's high fucking praise, and it's a little surprising that Jason didn't go with the Ravens to do it again.  But he's as smitten with the Houston run game as I am, and he thinks Baltimore may not be able to score enough points to cover this time around.  I will add that I'll believe that Boldin is all the way back from surgery for a torn meniscus when I see it.  He can Tweet how good he feels all damn day, but I'm not giving that kind of injury to a guy already not all that fast any kind of benefit of the doubt.  I'm stopping short of picking Houston to go in and win only because to lose to a rookie QB at home in the playoffs would take a real collapse by Baltimore, but if you've watched the Ravens losses, you know that they're capable of staggering collapses.  Our X-factors:  Mine is Ravens WR Torrey Smith.  If Boldin is ineffective and Lee Evans continues to be invisible, then Smith is left as the only downfield threat for Joe Flacco to target.  Expect a huge dose of RB Ray Rice when Baltimore has the rock, obviously, but someone else has to show up as an offensive weapon, or else they have no shot to compete.  Jason's is Ravens FB Vonta Leach.  Leach will blast open those holes for Rice to fly through, and if he's off his game and Rice doesn't find room, it's a major problem for the Ravens.

My Pick:  Baltimore 24-23

New York Giants @ Green Bay

New York is the sexy pick this week because they hung in there with the Pack at the New Meadowlands in Week 13, losing by 3 on an Aaron Rodgers-led last-minute drive that resulted in the winning FG, and also because they looked awesome in choking out the Falcons last week.  Um, it's still the Packers.  It's not the Falcons, it's not the Cowboys, and it's not in the New Meadowlands.  And another reason New York is the sexy pick is because this team is reminiscent of the squad four years ago that stormed through the NFC in three road wins to get to the Super Bowl, where David Tyree became an unlikely trivia answer until the end of time.  I know the QB is the same, and so is most of the defense, but other than that, I fail to see the similarities.  Yeah, Brandon Jacobs was bowling fools over, but he hasn't been doing that this year.  The Falcons game was by far the best effort he and Ahmad Bradshaw turned in as a tandem at RB this season.  Let's see them do it again.  I think people tend to forget how great the Packers were this year because they didn't play last week, Rodgers didn't play the week before that, and the whole team had been sailing along for the last month while other teams (cough, Giants, cough) got more media by virtue of contending for a playoff spot while Green Bay had theirs sewn up.  Jason didn't cite a new love for the G-Men as a reason for his pick, but he did notice that he's picking against these two shitty defenses that led their teams to the best records in football.  Patriots and Packers, Dead Fucking Last in team defense and right next to it, respectively, and Jason wants no part of either of them.  But they proved all year that their defense didn't matter, so long as the offense scored more points.  Hey, I just pulled a Tim McCarver!  "If the offense scores more than your defense gives up, you win the game!  Keep that in mind, boys and girls!"  Our X-factors:  Mine is Packers DT B.J. Raji.  OK, B.J.  You saw how well-rounded and dangerous the Giants looked with a running game last week.  And you had a bye week of rest, and besides, the coaching staff, led by head coach Mike McCarthy, has been resting you most of the season, torpedoing those who drafted you in IDP leagues because most weeks in the 2nd half of the year, you were posting zero points.  Now's your time to wake up, make an impact, and entertain the crowd in the process, because everyone loves a big jiggly guy who makes his fat move for their pleasure.  Jason's is Packers RB Ryan Grant.  Jay thinks that it will be important to rush the ball to keep the defense honest, and because James Starks has been hurt and no one else has stepped up, Grant needs to come through with a nice game for the Cheeseheads.

My Pick:  Green Bay 41-31

Wild Card ATS Recap: Broke and Miserable

Leave it to the low class Lions to deliver a cheap shot even AFTER the season ended. Safety Aaron Berry, a little sore in the rear end both from the whoopin Drew Brees put on the Lion secondary and the fan reaction in the social media, responded with a scathing attack on Lions fans, calling them "broke and miserable." This is right out of the LeBron James playbook, telling us all to get back to our sorry lives now that we can't kick around millionaire pro athletes anymore. It was a move that lacked any class at all, but when it came to the undisciplined Lions, would you have it any other way?

• Texans (-4) 31, Bengals 10 - Dre winner, Jason loser - After looking impressive on their opening drive, the Bengals couldn't muster much offense the rest of the afternoon. The Texans played to their strengths, namely their defense and running attack, and capitalized on three Andy Dalton picks to run away and hide in the second half. Dalton looked very much like a rookie on the afternoon, and the Bengals looked every bit like a team that limped through the back door into the playoffs. Houston will need more from T.J. Yates this weekend as they head to Baltimore.
• Saints (-10½) 45, Lions 28 - Jason winner, Dre loser - The Saints lived up to all their press, relentlessly piling up yards and points on the sorry Lion D. The Lions were one dimensional from the start, and therein lie the difference between the Saints and Lions: New Orleans three headed rushing attack complements their passing game so well that their offense looks unstoppable. The Lions leaned heavily on Calvin Johnson, and against many other teams, that should have been enough. The Lions have a bright future, but they need to grow up and find some defense before they can ascend to contender status.
• Giants (-3) 24, Falcons 2 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Atlanta played one of the worst playoff games I've ever seen any team play. Especially for a team that "built" itself for this moment, to outscore other teams come January. The Giants got lucky late in the season, and then hot the last few weeks, and that can be a very dangerous combination. Matt Ryan is starting to look like a liability more than an asset. He might be a nice game manager, but he seems to rattle under pressure and doesn't have the big arm necessary to push the ball down the field. Ryan has underwhelmed in all three of his playoff losses, and hurt his team here by missing opportunities early while the Falcon D was holding the Giants down. Also to blame here was Mike Smith, who needs to stop with the going for it on 4th and one. Bravado turned to stubborness turned to stupidity before our eyes, and the Giants took advantage of every mistake.
• Broncos (+9) 29, Steelers 23 (OT) - Both winners - I found myself rooting for the Broncos as the game kept going. A nice cover was turning into an upset, and I'm a sucker for a nice underdog story. Even after the Steelers benefited from a horrendous call on a backward pass to eventually tie the game, the Broncos didn't seem shaken. Their D held Roethlisberger late, thanks to Ben holding onto the ball too long AGAIN, and won the coin toss to start the first ever overtime with the new rules. Referee Ron Winter butchered the explanation of the OT rules, but all we needed was one play: a perfectly thrown strike to Demayrius Thomas on a pitch and catch that netted Denver 80 yards, a touchdown, and the win. Thomas did his best Donovan McNabb impersonation, saying he didn't know his TD won the game, but after Winter's explanation, I can't blame him. Tebow took what the Steelers gave him, which amounted to 316 yards passing on TEN completions. That's a 31.6 yards per completion average, which is insane. You deserved to lose, Pittsburgh.

NFL Wild Card '12: What I Learned

• In my one win over Jason this weekend, Houston gave up ten points to Cincinnati about halfway through the 2nd quarter and busted them in the fucking mouth from that point on, giving up no points afterwards.  The road rookie QB faltered while the home rookie QB shined, but it wasn't just because one was at home.  T.J. Yates, the Texans' QB, had much better protection than Cincy's Andy Dalton, and he had a much more productive running game to keep the opposing defense occupied.  Andre Johnson's still a tad off, but he made some big catches anyway for Houston, including a wide-open TD.  If he only needed one game to shake off the rust, then Baltimore's got a big problem, because it appears that RB Arian Foster and the zone blocking scheme will be fully loaded and ready to go.  Can the Texans D come up with big plays as well against the Ravens?  It was the pressure and some athletic plays from the front four, especially DE J.J. Watt, that smothered the Bengals late in the 2nd quarter and all of the 2nd half.  I don't expect Baltimore to let Houston push their offense around like that, but the Ravens and Texans may wind up playing a very close game, and anything can happen in those kind of contests.
• In New Orleans, both the Lions and Saints played the 1st half somewhat conservatively.  You got the feeling that both teams could start launching bombs down the field anytime they wanted.  And both teams still put up points even though they were clearly feeling each other out.  Yes, the 2nd-quarter Drew Brees fumble should have been a Detroit TD because the refs blew the play dead prematurely, but I felt that once Detroit had to punt to end that drive, they let the opportunity slip away.  They moved the ball on New Orleans rather easily up to that point, and then they have to kick it away after a midfield turnover??  Big mistake.  Maybe Detroit thought that being in the lead at halftime was victory enough and that they can always go toe-to-toe and score-to-score with the Saints in the 2nd half.  We saw how that shit turned out.  Bombs away, long passes to wide open receivers, big plays made everywhere, and Detroit kept up for a while, but ultimately fell short.  NO extended drives on 4th down because they knew they could get any yardage they needed.  Detroit felt the pressure and QB Matthew Stafford threw the rock to the other team, and there went their chances of winning, and eventually, the cover.  If the game was going to come down to which QB fucked up in the 2nd half, then Brees and the Saints were a lock all the way.  The Lions should have stepped on their throats early so that it wouldn't have to come down to that.
• I won't say that Atlanta not rushing the ball with Michael Turner led to their ass-whupping in New Jersey, but 15 carries for 41 yards is not exactly committing to the run.  And look at what happened when the Falcons had to throw--no respect for the run game, all-out pass rush, no time for Matty Ice to do anything.  Not to mention, Matt Ryan has no fucking idea how to execute a QB sneak.  He failed twice to gain the half-yard needed on 4th down to extend drives.  I got the Giants scoring 24 right, but Atlanta fell just short of my prediction of 26.  All they were missing was that 2nd digit!  And whoa, where's that run game for New York been all year?  We do know that the G-Men ranked dead fucking last in rushing this season, but I guess when it's playoff time, Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs get healthy and motivated.  Or maybe the Falcons' front 7 is soft as Charmin.  The score was 10-2 when the 2nd Ryan failed sneak occurred, so they were still in the game.  But you can see the Atlanta defense get gassed and deflated.  That combo of their own impotent offense and talented opponents on offense melted the Falcons D like butter on hot asphalt.  So much for that next step in Atlanta's growth.  Maybe if they played Tampa Bay or Jacksonville in the playoffs...
• Wow.  That's all I could say after the Steelers-Broncos tilt, that and "Oh my God!"  I'm guessing my Tweet after this game wasn't very original, but here it is--"Headline tomorrow: 'HOLY SHIT!!!' #tebow"  The game's easy to break down, but very dense because so many things happened that switched momentum from one side to the next.  Denver came out running their offense as crappy as ever in the 1st quarter, while Pittsburgh ran a conservative game plan, limiting QB Ben Roethlisberger's risk of being drilled with running and quick passing.  This gave the Steelers a 6-0 lead because they weren't letting Big Ben go for big plays.  Then Tim Tebow's light switch got flipped on--maybe coaches cussing him out, maybe teammates, who knows--and as the 2nd quarter began, he just started unleashing huge throws downfield, lighting up the Steelers secondary for major yardage.  It's as if he just realized that this is how football is played in today's NFL.  Could he and coach John Fox have been doing the rope-a-dope and lulling Pittsburgh to sleep on purpose the whole time?  Nah, Tebow's not bright enough.  So Denver goes from down 6-0 to up 20-6 in one quarter, resulting in Big Ben having to open himself up to big hits in order to make big plays as the Steelers have to play catch-up.  They got much help from RB Isaac Redman, who had a nice game subbing for Rashard Mendenhall.  And lo and behold, Pittsburgh comes all the way back to tie the game up.  Denver could have put it away in regulation if RB Willis McGahee doesn't fumble during a drive that would have given the Broncos a two-possession lead, or if CB Champ Bailey doesn't drop an end-zone INT during Pitt's game-tying drive.  And Pittsburgh could have stolen it on the last play of regulation if Ben gets rid of the ball on a Hail Mary, but he held on too long and took the sack.  Yes, this is exactly why I said the Steelers wouldn't win the title.  Ben Roethlisberger held on to the fucking football too long AGAIN.  Then OT started, Tebow hits Demaryius Thomas, 80 yards, TD, and the crowd goes wild.  So we wipe all Steelers thoughts from our minds because they're gone.  The next question is:  Can Denver pull this shit again at New England?  Well, it's the league's worst defense, so yeah, why not?  But who knows if Tebow's mentally up for it again?  Can someone drill it into his head that this is the only way to win games against good teams, not with that read option bullshit?  Can the coaching staff help him figure it out?  Can New England stop a nosebleed?  We'll all find out Saturday night.  Can't wait!

Dre--91.1 + 4 = 95.1 pts; Jay--101.6 + 6 = 107.6 pts

NFL Wild Card '12

Before we get to the picks for the first weekend of playoffs, let's set the table for the postseason scoring as far as the picks go.  Jason and I go by a simple scoring system for the playoffs:  Take the season's percentage, multiply by 200, and use that number as a points base, adding 2 points for every Wild Card win, 3 points for every Divisional Round game, 4 points for each Conference Finals win, and 5 points for the Super Bowl.  This season looks to be a cakewalk for Jason because he starts the playoffs with such a big advantage:
                                         Dre              Jay

	Season	112-134-10	125-121-10
		0.455	0.508
		x200	x200
Playoff Points		=91.1	=101.6
	Scoring System
		Wild Card	2 pts. each
		Conf. Semis	3 pts. each
		Conf. Finals	4 pts. each
		Super Bowl	5 pts.

With that, I, the man who lost Week 17 to a coin, carry my sorry ass into Wild Card Weekend differing with Jason on three games right off the bat, which could wrap up the season title for Jay really quickly if things break bad for me.

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

	Saturday
HOU (10-6)	4	Cin (9-7)			Hou	Cin
	Sat. Nite
NO (13-3)	10½	Det (10-6)			Det	NO
	Sunday
NYG (9-7)	3	Atl (10-6)			Atl	NY
Pit (12-4)	9	DEN (8-8)			Den	Den

Cincinnati @ Houston

The NFL always makes sure to put its least compelling/ugliest game on first, because they know that fans will be glad just to have any playoff game on their TVs.  The main event Sunday afternoon features Jesus Christ, the noon game has the New York market, and the Saturday night affair has the all-time passer for a single season, Drew Brees.  What's this game have?  Two rookie quarterbacks?  Zzzzzz.  But Jason and I will be interested because we have skin in this game, as he goes with the Bengals and I pick the Texans.  Picking T.J. Yates and giving four points is daunting, but hey, that's why my record sucks this year.  But I'll try to justify it anyway:  The passing games should be a wash because both pass defenses can stifle the opposing air attack, leaving the running games to do battle, and I trust Arian Foster and Ben Tate for Houston to rush the ball better than Cedric Benson and Cincinnati.  I don't like the reports of Cincy QB Andy Dalton being very sick all week, but more than that, I don't like how he hasn't thrown for over 200 yards in his last 5 games except once.  I don't like Jonathan Joseph, the Texans' top cornerback, shadowing A.J. Green, the Bengals' best WR; Joseph held Green to 59 yards in Houston's Week 14 victory at Cincinnati.  And I don't want to rely on the road rookie QB to outperform the home rookie QB.  Jason will take the Bengals because it will allow Houston, despite breaking through and winning the AFC South for the first time, to once again be selected as preseason media darlings next year.  "Yes, the Texans made the playoffs finally, but how much better could they have done with their star QB Matt Schaub or a fully healthy Andre Johnson?  We must fall in love with them and overhype them yet again!"  Our X-factors:  Mine is Texans LB Connor Barwin.  A quick lead for Houston allows the Texans to play the pass and rush the QB, and Barwin has been a terror in the 2nd half of the season.  Jason's are both starting tight ends.  Houston's Owen Daniels and Cincinnati's Jermaine Gresham can really help keep the chains moving.

My Pick:  Houston 27-12

Detroit @ New Orleans

I love the over.  Can I get that out of the way?  I LOVE the over!  This one has all the makings of a wild back-and-forth scorefest.  More scoring than at a Miley Cyrus house party.  I thought I would take the obvious pick all week and stick with the Saints to dominate at home, especially considering how much I dislike the Lions.  But despite Detroit having the ability to melt under the pressure and lose all their poise, I'm taking them to cover the number because that's a big-ass number, and because all Detroit did all year was make crazy comebacks from big deficits.  It's how they made the damn playoffs.  I have to point out that in comparing stats for the game, I've never seen a matchup where both teams have run defenses giving up five yards per carry.  That's crazy bad.  So it's not all about the throws when I say that I love the over.  These teams can score and gain yardage in a number of different manners.  I must say that it's a bad sign when your RB and TE are colliding in practice, as Kevin Smith and Tony Scheffler did, but I'm picking Detroit to cover anyway.  The thinking seems to be, the Lions should get ripped by the Saints because if they gave up 45 to a backup QB last week in Green Bay, then what's Brees gonna do to them?  Fair point, but every game's different.  Brees already had Detroit on a prime-time platter in Week 13, and New Orleans put up a mere 31.  Of course, Detroit only managed 17, but I'm going to bet on China Doll and Megatron figuring out a way to score more than 17 points this time around.  Our X-factors:  Mine is Lions free safety Louis Delmas.  Back form injury, he stands as the last line of defense on many of those Brees deep passes.  That Detroit secondary stinks like Limburger cheese even with Delmas, but without him, they've been completely toasted save for Week 16 versus the Chargers.  Jason's is Lions KR Stefan Logan.  Every time the Saints score, they have to kick the ball back to the Lions, and Logan on a fast track can hurt NO bad.  Jay referred to what Randall Cobb did in special teams to the Saints on Opening Night, and that wasn't indoors on a fast turf.

My Pick:  New Orleans 41-35

Atlanta @ New York Giants

Look, I'm going to go against the Giants at home again, and I don't wanna hear any shit about it.  The numbers bear out that they don't perform well normally as home favorites, so I'm actually playing the percentages, and that's that.  I wonder if Atlanta is ready to take a next step in their development as a title contender, and I'll pick them to make that step in a very close, tense battle.  They have to stay committed to the run with Michael Turner and not be discouraged by any resistance by the talented New York defensive front.  The Giants can be run on, as they got gashed for 4.5 yards per rush this season.  And once those Giants pass rushers have to respect the run, QB Matt Ryan can be set up for the bombs to WRs Roddy White and Julio Jones and TE Tony Gonzalez.  Ryan may even be able to keep up with the bombs Eli Manning will fire to Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz.  Jason isn't impressed with the competition that Atlanta faced at the end of the season and thinks they built false confidence based on slaying a bunch of bums.  Hard to argue with that.  The Falcons' last six wins were over Indy, Tennessee, Minnesota, Carolina, Jacksonville, and Tampa.  Shit.  Yet I'll still stick with them at the Meadowlands over coach Tom Coughlin and Eli, who are due for an old-fashioned gag job.  Our X-factors:  Mine is the entire Atlanta offensive line.  It's all on them.  If they can keep Ryan clean, he can beat the Giants deep early and often.  If not, they're screwed, blued and tattooed.  Jason's is Falcons RB Jacquizz Rodgers.  He thinks there's room for the 3rd-string speed RB to make an impact with his change-of-pace, and if Rodgers scores a TD, even if it helps me win the pick, Jay will never let me hear the end of it.

My Pick:  Atlanta 26-24

Pittsburgh @ Denver

I'm not letting Jason strike out and snatch the large home underdog points by himself like I did last year when he inexplicably had Seattle +10 against New Orleans.  And we both have an actual reason to go with Denver, and it's because the star QB for Pittsburgh looks awful.  He's Ben Roethlisberger, and he hasn't played a good game since Week 13.  It's not prudent to pick the Steelers giving heavy points in a hostile environment when the linchpin of the offense hasn't played well in a month.  Despite that, I struggled with this pick all week because the Steelers D should smother Tim Tebow until he can't breathe.  (I want the devilish LB James Harrison to knock Tebow out of the game so bad that I can't stand it.)  Then I saw the news stories that anyone can find with some research that say Tebow didn't take all of the 1st-team reps at QB in practice this week.  The Denver backup QB took some 1st-team reps, and that man would be...Brady Quinn?!?  But hey, when you think about it, no matter how big a fan you may be of Tebow, no matter how much you may hate Quinn, Quinn is an actual QB.  Quinn can actually make some NFL throws.  Tebow cannot.  I believe that Tebow will have a very short leash, and if he continues to play shitty, look for Broncos coach John Fox to put a real quarterback in the game and give Denver an actual chance to compete.  Our X-factors:  Mine is, of course, Quinn.  If he plays, Denver can move the football and stick around, and if Big Ben is motionless enough to let the Denver pass rushers tee off on him, Quinn may even be able to pull out an upset victory.  But if Fox sticks with Tebow all the way, Denver will get a bunch of hard rushing yards, about 60 passing yards, and about six points.  Jason's is Broncos CB Andre Goodman.  With Champ Bailey trying to tie up All-Pro WR Mike Wallace, Goodman will have to curtail the production of Pittsburgh's latest deep threat WR Antonio Brown.  If both wideouts get off and produce, Denver's in a world of trouble, and no amount of prayer can help that.

My Pick:  Pittsburgh 17-13

Week 17 ATS Recap: Because It Makes No Sense

We enter the final week of the regular season every year fearful of the randomness and unpredictability that it brings. Over the last few years, I've done pretty well for myself in the mayhem, probably due to the fact that I specialize in picks that make no logical sense whatsoever. It drives my analytical counterpart nuts I'm sure, but what looked like a breezy Week 17 picking against the Coin turned into a full on rout and padded my lead going into our playoffs. I was all set to go with a season recap this week, but Week 17 and its fallout are more fun than any witty retrospective, which I'll save for another day.

• Before I get started, I'll just point out that Coin went 7-8-1 ATS. I'm not breaking down a coin flip in my comments.
• Eagles (-9) 34, Redskins 10 - Both winners - The game was a microcosm of the Eagles season. Underwhelming and coasting to a 13-10 lead early in the 4th quarter, the overtalented and underacheiving Eagles turned on the afterburners and scored 3 straight TDs while the defense stymied the Skins. As with the rest of the Eagles season, it was a lot of glitter, and way too little - way too late. Listen for the whispers of the Eagles as the Houston Texans Memorial Preseason Chic Media Pick for the postseason after their "strong" finish.
• Dolphins 19, Jets (+3) 17 - Both losers - Total Fraud did not disappoint. Needing to win the game and get a LOT of help (which they ironically almost got, and ALL of it save that Tennessee won) to back into the playoffs yet again, the Jets overhyped but strangely all over the TV ads quarterback looked shaky at best as Houston Texans Memorial candidate #2, the Miami Dolphins, finished their season on a solid note. They still jettisoned the coach in Miami, even though the Fins never quit. As for Total Fraud, I guess the Pepsi Max guy needs to give better halftime speeches.
• Saints (-9) 45, Panthers 17 - Both losers - The 49ers let the Rams hang close, so for a little playoff practice, Drew Brees lit up the Panthers. Brees earned a lot of MVP hype the last half of the season, and he didn't disappoint here.
• Packers (+3½) 45, Lions 41 - Jason winner, Dre loser - I tried to warn Dre that he was selling short on Matt Flynn. But I did not expect the greatest passing day by a Packer QB EVAH! Flynn threw for 520 yards and 6 TDs in a barnburner played on a frigid day with 30+ MPH winds. Even worse? The Lions outgained the Packers, meaning both teams combined for easily over ONE THOUSAND yards of offense for the day. Flynn earned himself the right to be the next Kevin Kolb/Matt Cassel/Scott Mitchell and will certainly get paid well for his services. My predicted landing spot: Seattle. I also give zero credit to the theory that Flynn's performance somehow lessens the impact of what Aaron Rodgers does week in and week out. The talking heads are loving that theory, because nobody likes a frontrunner. It's boring.
• Niners 34, Rams (+10½) 27 - Dre winner, Jason loser - The Rams became a very sneaky cheap cover the last few games with Kellen Clemens under center. Other than that, the Niners got up 21 with six minutes to go and put on the cruise control. San Fran is not a team that can just flip the switch. They need the week off.
• Jaguars (-3½) 19, Colts 13 - Both losers - The season ends as it began, with me expecting the Colts to compete. The results were the same, with the Colts looking weak without their franchise QB. Or is he? (insert dramatic music cue)
• Patriots (-10½) 49, Bills 21 - Jason winner, Dre loser - It takes a special kind of awful to spot yourself a 21 point lead and not only manage to lose the game, but also not cover an 11 point number. Buffalo managed to do as I predicted back in Week 11, they squandered a 5-2 start to finish in LAST place in their division. I wonder how much of that money they laid out for Ryan Fitzpatrick is guaranteed?
• Titans 23, Texans (+1½) 22 - Dre winner, Jason loser - OK, I don't want to hear anything out of Dre about cheap covers after this one! A 1 point outcome on a 1½-point line. It only would have been worse if he called Tennessee to win, but NOT to cover.
• Bears (+1) 17, Vikings 13 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Was Christian Ponder drafted just to make Joe Webb look like a serviceable NFL quarterback? If that was the goal, then great job Vikings!
• Steelers 13, Browns (+7) 9 - Both losers - Why do the Steelers keep running, or limping, their franchise quarterback out onto the field, when they know he will get destroyed due to his lack of mobility and penchant for hanging onto the ball too long? Why did I take the Steelers this week instead of doing as I did in Week 16 and taking them because Roethlisberger WASN'T playing? Picking this playoff game with Ben under center at Denver scares me. It's scary to say, but I'd like the Steelers a lot more with Charlie Batch.
• Ravens (-1) 24, Bengals 16 - Jason winner, Dre loser - The Bengals aren't total scrubs. The Ravens showed up. It's like deja vu all over again. Baltimore is still my AFC Super Bowl pick. They don't have to play the Seahawks and the Cardinals anymore.
• Falcons (-11) 45, Buccaneers 24 - Jason winner, Dre loser - This is why Week 17 is so weird, it's the only week where game results can impact on each other, which can really lead to a snowball of wins or losses ATS. Dre called the Lions to beat Green Bay, which didn't happen, which turned his "meaningless" game here into a much more meaningful tilt. I had the Packers to win outright, so all Atlanta had to do to avoid a drubbing at the hands of the Saints was beat the sad sack Bucs. The Falcons got the memo, jumped on the Bucs early and often, and helped hand Raheem Morris his walking papers. The Tampa owners could have just sent them down to Mike Smith to hand over to Raheem during the handshake. Too bad it would have only been the second most exciting handshake of the year (I'm looking at you Harbaugh and Schwartz).
• Chiefs (+3½) 7, Broncos 3 - Both winners - Kyle Orton got his revenge! I guess. Matt Flynn almost threw for more yards than both these teams gained in total offense. It's like the Gods of Good Defense demanded a sacrifice for all the scoring in the league this season and the ritual was performed at Mile High. Tim Tebow still gets his playoffs though, so prepare for a week of fellating from the media. It's gonna get messy!
• Chargers (+3) 38, Raiders 26 - Jason winner, Dre loser - You can rack the Chargers up as our third Houston Memorial candidate. The annual San Diego December mad dash to playoffs fell flat against the Lions in week 16, making this game mostly about keeping the Raiders out of the playoffs. The Bolts spoiled Oaklands party, and sent Denver AND Cincinnati to the postseason all at the same time. Merry Christmas AND Happy New Year, AFC, don't say we never got you anything - Love, the Chargers.
• Cardinals 23, Seahawks 20 (OT) - PUSH
• Giants (-3) 31, Cowboys 14 - Jason winner, Dre loser - To hear the hype the week before the game, it seemed to be a foregone conclusion that the Cowboys would steamroll into the Meadowlands and punch their playoff ticket. Never one to subscribe to foregone conclusions, I smelled a rat, and went against the hype AND the stupidest team in football.

2011-12 What I Learned About Each Team In One Sentence

Cowboys--They need a new GM to find the right people that will do the things that their superstars can't to win games.
Eagles--Expectations and injuries derailed their season, but they showed what they can do late.
Giants--Can become a title contender again if they get healthy on defense and upgrade the running backs and o-line.
Redskins--Quick start made some people excited, then they totally lost their way with bad decisions such as The John Beck Experience.
Bears--The new general manager better discover some good receivers and blockers, or else there will be a new coach at the end of next year.
Lions--Angriest, dirtiest team is making a notorious name for itself, which takes focus off of their all-world WR and developing QB.
Packers--Ushered in a new era of the NFL, for no defense this shitty has authored a record this excellent.
Vikings--They're missing so many vital pieces to a winning organization that the new coach had no chance this year and none going forward.
Falcons--Seems like they're making small improvements, but the QB can be a liability in big moments.
Panthers--Big plays against, big plays for, and back and forth they shall go until the D can be rebuilt.
Saints--Unstoppable in Louisiana, mortal anywhere else.
Buccaneers--If QB Freeman has started to regress, they're going to be awful for a long time.
Cardinals--Kings of Mediocrity can surprise a good team any day, can lose to a bad team any day.
Rams--Impossible to know if QB Bradford has regressed because they have perhaps the league's worst WR corps.
49ers--I hate the way that offense is built, but the D is fun to watch.
Seahawks--Their defense is young and improving, so any time they want to find a real QB and contend, go right ahead.
Bills--Can't compete until they fix holes in the defense, and only then can they address if Fitzpatrick is the right fit at QB.
Dolphins--Congrats on starting to win at home and playing better overall, now let's find a good coach who can teach consistency.
Patriots--Cannot win a title with league's worst defense no matter how great QB Brady is performing.
Jets--How long can they keep competing with such a one-sided team?
Ravens--The bad losses make you lose all confidence, but if RB Rice can carry the offense, they can win any game.
Bengals--Love to watch the collection of Polynesians stuff the run, but they need more on offense besides Dalton-to-Green.
Browns--I don't believe in Colt McCoy at all at QB, but he has no weapons, so it doesn't matter who's throwing the rock.
Steelers--Cannot win the title because so much of their scoring comes from QB Roethlisberger staying upright and mobile and making plays, and he ain't mobile right now.
Texans--Great to see them come into their own this year, but what bad timing to lose their franchise QB before the playoffs.
Colts--Amazing lack of ability to do anything right for the first three months of the season will result in The Andrew Luck Era starting at the draft.
Jaguars--Not all rookie QBs given the keys know how to keep it on the road.
Titans--Impressive last effort at relevance made by QB Hasselbeck, but I think the team gains more by placing Locker as QB next year.
Broncos--Only by the grace of a nauseating division does this team make the playoffs with the worst starting QB in the league.
Chiefs--Get rid of retard coach Haley, start winning football games--amazing how that works.
Raiders--Offense can compete, but defense has to get healthy and younger.
Chargers--It became obvious that as QB Rivers goes, so goes the whole team, so if he and his receivers are healthy next year, watch them contend once again.