Thu.. Nite Saints @ Falcons

Jason is MIA, so I'll make this pick solo.  If he gets back to me before kickoff, I'll leave his pick in the comment section.  Despite Atlanta being a favorite by the dreaded hook, I'm going with the Falcons -3 1/2.  Finally, it's a Thursday game that is actually watchable, and it's one of the more fun divisional rivalries in the NFL.  I think it will be close for most of the game.  I just feel that the Falcons are playing better than New Orleans, and I feel that they will be ready to avenge their only loss of the season.  Lots of points, lots of fun.  I wouldn't even bet on the game.  Just enjoy a rare watchable Thursday contest.

My Pick:  Atlanta 30-24

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2012 Week 12: What I Learned

• Games in no detail:  Vikings-Bears (as the real Chicago QB returns, many others leave due to injury...not good), Raiders-Bengals (Oakland never had a chance), Bills-Colts (Jason was right about Indy stepping down in class and beating the lesser team), Seahawks-Dolphins (evenly played, but Seattle once again finds a way to lose on the road), Rams-Cardinals (I know Ryan Lindley threw for some significant yardage, but 4 picks?!), Panthers-Eagles (MLB's Phillies have won more recently than Eagles, and they're not winning soon because their secondary is playing at their worst).
• Here's a special bundle of Thanksgiving analysis by NFL.com's Michael Lombardi.  I'm posting the story instead of breaking down the games because Lombardi said exactly what I would have said about each game.  I'll add two small things:  1, I'm truly amazed at how many different ways Detroit can fuck things up for themselves.  They remind me of me dating.  And 2, you gotta find that footage of Mark Sanchez of the Jets running straight into the ass of his offensive lineman and fumbling the ball away for a Patriots TD.  Jason was howling with laughter, he informed me.  I was in transit so I didn't watch it live, but it's one of the funniest sports bloopers in years.
• I don't have a whole lot to say about that Steelers effort in Cleveland, but I wanted to take a few sentences to marvel at their bumbling.  Eight turnovers???  Three Charlie Batch picks, which is bad enough, but then 5 fumbles???  Pittsburgh was playing Snoop Dogg Ball, dropping it like it's hawt, dropping it like it's hawt...I mean, you don't give yourself any opportunity to win a game when you refuse to protect the football like that.  The Browns weren't any more determined than usual, but the Steelers were just awful as a team.  Yeah, they miss Big Ben.  The reason is because they were still within a TD of winning with that shitty effort, and Ben, after all that fumbling and bumbling, would still have found Mike Wallace or Plaxico deep and pulled the damn thing out at the end.
• We survived the Elvis Game, and I'll tell you, it wasn't easy.  I don't know how many sacks Chad Henne was going to take on 3rd down, but somewhere along the way, the new Jaguars starting QB had it drilled into his noggin that he is not to heave the ball up under pressure and risk turning it over.  So it was an exercise in holding your breath if you watched the Titans-Jags game, because Jacksonville was able to score on some early drives, but then Tennessee got pressure on 3rd down and put Henne on his ass with regularity.  If Tennessee had a real offense to take advantage of the many possessions, they could have pulled out the win.  But instead, Jake Locker and his unimpressive WRs came up short, and the offensive coordinator, Chris Palmer, was shown the door after the game.  Don't know if the Titans let him come home on the team plane or not.  I kinda like Jacksonville the rest of the way.  They're definitely playing with more spirit, and they can--not will, but can--beat the bottom half of the league in a typical game, which wasn't true with Blaine Gabbert at QB.
• There were a couple of games that I lost by the margin of a gimme FG, which was somehow missed.  In Kansas City, the Broncos played down to the competition and found themselves losing to the Chiefs, but KC kept stalling in the red zone and settling for FGs.  So when Peyton Manning got his offense on track in the 2nd half, he still could have led them to a cover because the Chefs could only cook up 9 lousy points on the day.  However, in the 3rd quarter, Matt Prater doinked a 33-yard FG off the upright.  There's the spread.  Good effort on the day from Kansas City, but they're no good.  I'm not calling them a Mail-It-In, but it's gonna be hard to pick them the rest of the year.  And one observation about Peyton:  He tried a long bomb on play action and overthrew his guy by five yards and got picked off.  His arm still isn't trustworthy on very long throws.  Doesn't mean the Broncos can't win the title.
• Jason couldn't resist texting me when Atlanta beat Tampa by only 1 point, resulting in a push ATS.  Who was the better team?  You know, by my observation, they were pretty equal.  I didn't win because the kicker fucked me in this one, too, as former Buc Matt Bryant hooked a 22-yarder before the half and missed another kick in the 4th.  But if the Falcons were clearly better, I'd observe it, and neither team played championship defense as far as I'm concerned.  Josh Freeman and the Buccaneers moved the ball decently.  As long as Vincent Jackson stays in one piece, Freeman's got a hell of a target when his pocket breaks down.  And Matt Ryan moved the ball fine when Tampa wasn't blitzing.  That's probably the real indicator of TB's weakness:  They can't pressure the QB unless they're sending extra men, and that weakens their league-worst pass defense.  Hard to contend for a title like that.  Speaking of targets, that Julio Jones guy?  He's pretty good.
• What to say about the Baltimore-San Diego game...hmmm...yeah, I'm speechless.  I'm absolutely speechless.  No one can say that Baltimore was the better team in this one.  No one can deny that 4th-and-29 late in the 4th quarter is a time for the defense to make the play and get off the field with a victory.  And no one can deny that Norv Turner and the San Diego Chargers are the kings of finding ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.  What a perfect, signature loss on Norv's watch.  And what a perfect way for the Ravens to stick a middle finger to me and return my "Fuck you faggot Ravens" salute last week with a "Fuck you Dre a million times worse."  I'm already calling the Ravens over the Steelers at home as my Lock of the Week no matter what the spread is.  If the Ravens want to fuck me some more, they'll gag it up next week.  Oh, and fuck you faggot Chargers.
• There's something even more impressive than Colin Kaepernick's performance to take from the San Francisco-New Orleans battle:  It's the 49ers defense.  Yeah, statistically they're near the top, so it's easy to tell that they're good.  But Sunday was next level.  Against the #1 passing game of all time from last year, they sat on Drew Brees's head and farted all day long.  He had no room to breathe, and it usually wasn't from a blitz, it was mostly the front 3, 4 if you count Aldon Smith.  And when Brees got the ball to one of his guys, that guy usually got the snot knocked out of him.  The SF pass rush was just ferocious, and it's why Coach Insane can take a chance playing the younger but better player at QB in a championship window.  If Kaepernick made mistakes, the defense is good enough to bail him out.  And if he plays mostly mistake free, as he did Sunday, then they can march into the Superdome and beat the red-hot Saints by 10.  Kaep won almost every busted play when NO broke into his pocket.  I may have to consider the Niners as Super Bowl front-runners.  How do you beat a team with a bunch of animals on defense and an athletic, intelligent leader at quarterback who can flat beat you even when you think you've beaten him?
• Sunday night was easy to break down.  Eli Manning's arm looked fine to me, the Giants defense looked refreshed from the bye, and the Packers were kinda beaten before the game started.  Some days, you're not gonna win no matter what.  Green Bay likes to rally around beatings like this, so don't be surprised if they go on a run from here.

Week 12 Records--Dre 8-6-2, .571, Tout Service 2-1; Jay 6-8-2, .429, Tout Service 0-2-1
YTD Records--Dre 91-80-5, .532, Jay 85-86-5, .497

2012 Week #12

We at IMLD are proud to introduce the Tout Service!  We're indicating our three Locks of the Week (three for each of us, not our three joint locks) to see what would happen if we cherry-picked the games we liked the most.  We like to think the charm of In Much Less Detail, if there is any, is that we pick every game, we give our rationale behind each pick, and we let you decide where your hard-earned money should go.  But with Tout Service, we're going to see how successful we would be picking only our most confident picks.  Let's see how long this shit lasts.  Locks have an asterisk (*).

Fav	Spread	Dog	Final		Dre	Jay
	Thanksgiving
Hou (9-1)	3	DET (4-6)	Hou 34-31, OT		Det	Det
DAL (5-5)	3½	Wash (4-6)	Wash 38-31		Wash	Dal
	Thanksgiving Nite
NE (7-3)	7	NYJ (4-6)	NE 49-19		NE	NE
	Sunday
CHI (7-3)	6	Min (6-4)			Chi*	Chi
CIN (5-5)	9½	Oak (3-7)			Cin*	Oak
Pit (6-4)	1	CLE (2-8)			Cle	Pit
IND (6-4)	3	Buf (4-6)			Buf	Ind
Tenn (4-6)	4	JACK (1-9)		Elvis	Jack	Jack
Den (7-3)	10	KC (1-9)			Den	Den*
Atl (9-1)	1	TB (6-4)			Atl	TB*
Sea (6-4)	2½	MIA (4-6)			Sea	Sea
Bal (8-2)	1	SD (4-6)			SD*	Bal
SF (7-2-1)	1	NO (5-5)			NO	NO
ARIZ (4-6)	1	StL (3-6-1)			StL	StL
	Sun. Nite
NYG (6-4)	3	GB (7-3)			NY	GB*
	Mon. Nite
Car (2-8)	3	PHI (3-7)			Phi	Phi

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• I'm going to lock in the Bears right off the bat as they finally step down in class after two weeks against two of the top teams in the NFL.  Jason won't lock it up, but he feels also that it's a must-win for Chicago against an inferior team, and they will step it up.  I must say, the news of Jay Cutler returning swung my pick completely.  Yes, the offensive line has been terrible as usual, but if I had to watch one more week of Jason Campbell, I was going to go with the Vikings.  But Cutler should symbolize a return to normalcy for a very good, if not great, team.
• I'll also lock up the Bengals in the Carson Palmer Bowl.  Cincinnati gets some more bums to slay in the form of a beat-up Raiders team still without their best player, RB Darren McFadden.  I actually like Palmer to put up a nice game in his return to Cincy, but I like Andy Dalton to put up better numbers and lay claim to Cincinnati as his town and his town alone.  Jason's not trusting the Bengals, and he'll pick Interception Santa to cover that big number.
• Jay's rebelling against all of the Charlie Batch hate and riding the Steelers in Cleveland.  He was shocked that Pittsburgh was only a 1-point fav against a clearly worse squad.  He'll trust the 37-year-old Batch to have it in him to beat the Cleveland Browns.  I can't have the same faith in Batch.  It's not just him, it's the Steelers in general being really beat up (isn't it a sign of End of Days when you have to sign Plaxico Burress?) and facing a Browns team that has shown fight at home this season.  Yes, this week, it is me with the Brown Fever.  Hope the Browns don't shit the bed and make me regret it.
• Another disagreement between Jay and me.  Indianapolis didn't air any footage of the postgame after New England violated them last week, so I guess Chuckstrong didn't make the road trip.  But Jason's back on the Colts as they host the Bills.  He cites the same factor that I did in picking the Bears, which is, the Colts are taking a big step down in class from their opponent last week.  I'm going with Buffalo in a coin flip.  Both teams can give up big plays on the ground and in the air, but Buffalo has been better lately in rushing the passer, and maybe that's the difference.  And Buffalo had the ten-day rest after the Thursday night win over Miami, giving them a little mini-bye.
• Elvis had to sing a few bars of "Suspicious Minds" as we felt like we're caught in a trap looking at Tennessee as a road favorite against a Jacksonville team invigorated by the change at QB last week.  We both really like the Jags to win with Chad Henne at the helm, although neither of us had the balls to lock it up.  But the Titans are far from a great franchise waiting to knock the Jaguars down a notch.  We'll have to give the Titans big respect if they come in off the bye and punch Jacksonville in the mouth, but we're both going with the Jags to build on last week.
• Jason will lock up Peyton Manning as a huge road favorite (largest spread of the week) in a division matchup.  That's a lot going against him, but at its essence, it's the 7-3 Broncos having to win by more than 10 against the 1-9 Chiefs, and if we don't overthink it, it's a task that shouldn't be very hard.  Kansas City is FedEx'ing it in, scoring no more than 16 points from Week 5 on, and if they show some pride and give Denver a game, good for them, but we're not going to predict it to happen.  It's very likely that they won't fight, especially with Brady Quinn once again attempting to play NFL QB.
• And now, nothing but small spreads the rest of the way.  We'll really earn our tout titles in these games.  It's a perfect storm for Jay to lock up Tampa Bay as they host the Falcons--he's got Falcon Hate from the way they've broken his heart over the years, and he's digging the hot streak of his favorite QB, Josh Freeman.  Add in what Muscle Hamster can do to the Atlanta front 7, and Jason's loving the Buccaneers at home.  But, Jason cited a stat in his zeal, and that spells doom for him, as we know.  He marveled at how Tampa has scored more points on the season than Atlanta, and, for that matter, the mighty Packers.  Oh, Jason, you and stats do not mix well typically.  So I'm taking Atlanta to pull one out late.  Tampa's definitely the hotter team, but are they better?  Not yet, not with that secondary ready to get torched by Matty Ice.  Look for WR Julio Jones to be the hero late, as the Falcons are going to try to use him less early to reserve him for later.
• Seattle is not at home in the Meat Grinder, and they are making what by distance I think is the longest road trip in the damn league, and they play at what will be 10A Seattle time, fucking with their body clocks.  It's all good, because they're playing the Dolphins.  The Seahawks are typically bad on the road, and Miami is typically bad at home.  Something's gotta give, and we think it will be the team that got embarrassed at home a couple of weeks ago by the Goddamn Tennessee Titans.
• Speaking of embarrassing, fuck you faggot Ravens.  You get a gift of a Pittsburgh team starting Byron Leftwich instead of Ben Roethlisberger, you let his fat ass run around for a TD on the ground after he hit a big pass play in the air, then when you shut him down, your offense goes on the fritz long enough for you to not cover by a half point.  Thanks.  Yeah, I'm locking up the Bolts to stick it up your ass.  Philip Rivers found a new toy in Danario Alexander, and it's too late to save Norv Turner's job, but he and Antonio Gates should be enough to mow down the gutless Baltimore Ravens.  Jason calls San Diego "the Cowboys of the AFC."  That's correct, that's not a compliment.
• We're both not feeling great about picking New Orleans to knock off San Francisco, but hey, the Saints are the only team in the league that may be as hot as the Bucs, Broncos, or Pats.  Jas doesn't see smooth sailing for the kid who's only going to make his 2nd NFL start at QB for San Fran, Colin Kaepernick.  I also want to see him prove that he can perform in the environment that he's going to encounter in the Superdome.  Should be close and very good, but we like Drew Brees to find a way again.
• We also like the Rams to find a way against the Cardinals because the Cardinals like to give you chances to find a way.  Lots of chances.  This Ryan Lindley Experiment at QB for Arizona will continue, and he makes his first NFL start against the St. Louis D-line, comprised of hungry guys who will feed on Lindley's carcass.  Nice call, Ken Whisenhunt.  Please pack your belongings and leave now.
• Jason's going to lock in the Pack as they visit the enigmatic New York Giants.  He likes the idea of Eli Manning continuing to throw balls up for grabs as the Green Bay secondary settles underneath them.  That's what the Packers defensive backfield does best.  They may not be great tacklers or cover guys, but they do camp under bad throws like nobody's business.  Why am I not on the same page?  Well, for no good reason, I'm going to predict that Eli won't be throwing the terrible balls he's been throwing.  If the "pitcher's dead arm" theory espoused by ESPN's Ron Jaworski in the film room was true, then think about what they do with pitchers who have a dead arm.  "Have a seat, son, skip a turn in the rotation and rest up."  And the G-Men had their bye last week, so Eli got his rest.  I'm giving him the benefit and going with him this one time.  But if he displays accuracy issues on the deep ball again, then I have to downgrade him and once again put him on the do-not-pick list.  As Jay says, if he still can't throw after a week off, it's not a dead arm issue, it's probably a hidden injury issue.
• This horrible Monday night game will provide some opportunities for you fellow married guys to earn some brownie points talking with the wife or having a date night or taking care of the kids while she rests.  The slightly interesting aspect is how little love Nick Foles is getting in the point spread.  The pathetic Panthers are road favorites at Philadelphia, who may be mailing it in completely at this point.  But we're giving the Eagles one more chance.  Carolina simply hasn't done anything to deserve backing them as 3-point road favorites.  In a battle of dumb and bad vs. dumb and bad, we're both going to pick Philly to pull it out.  I still think Foles has something to offer, and Carolina should let him show it.

2012 Gobble Gobble

Happy Turkey Day to everyone!  It's the earliest possible Thanksgiving date, so it really snuck up on most of us.  Especially Jason, who didn't know Thanksgiving was this Thursday as early as last Saturday.  How time flies.  Well, on to the three games for Turkey Day.

Fav	Spread	Dog	Final		Dre	Jay
	Thanksgiving
Hou (9-1)	3	DET (4-6)			Det	Det
DAL (5-5)	3½	Wash (4-6)			Wash	Dal
	Thanksgiving Nite
NE (7-3)	7	NYJ (4-6)			NE	NE

• We're going for the surprise in Motown to start off, which screwed us last year when we picked the undefeated Packers to have trouble in Detroit.  They didn't.  Houston isn't undefeated, but they're similarly mowing down the opposition as they enter this game.  The difference is, the Texans showed some ass this past Sunday as the D got shredded by the Jacksonville Jaguars, of all teams.  So we're paying attention to that eye-opening game and picking the Lions to knock off Houston.  I just can't imagine Houston going through the physical demands of that game, playing for their lives the whole way, playing nearly the entire overtime period, then hopping on a plane and playing another NFL game four days later against the top-ranked passing team in the league.  And I like this point from Matt Williamson of the ESPN Football Today podcast:  If the Texans don't get more help rushing the passer from someone other than J.J. Watt, then Matthew Stafford could really go off.  Even the undisciplined Lions can't screw this one up.  Can they?
• In our only head-to-head pick of the day, Jason will back the dumbest team in the league at home giving 3 and a hook.  He says he's learned that if he's going to pick a favorite, usually they're going to cover the number, so he's not half-assing it or getting cute.  He's backing the Cowboys to win and cover.  That's great.  Give me the Redskins to win.  I'm fed up with the Cowboys stumbling around trying to find their way.  Washington is still running the ball with the rookie Alfred Morris and still flinging it with the rookie Bob Griffin, and I thought by now that both would have hit a rookie wall.  It might happen in this very game, but Dallas seems to have the type of defense that will let them continue to perform.  I thought Griffin wouldn't be able to make his long throws once Pierre Garcon injured himself, but as the Philly game just showed, RG3 will throw it up for anyone to go get it.  I think the athletes on both sides are some of the best in the NFL, I think it will be a shootout, but I think Washington will prevail.
• We like the Pats squoosh over the Jets.  Anything we like this much usually goes against us, so keep that in mind.  But yeah, there's no reason Gang Green should be able to sniff New England.  Aqib Talib arrives just in time to get a pick-6 last week, and I wouldn't be surprised if he did it again versus Total Fraud.

2012 Week 11: What I Learned

• Games in no detail:  Dolphins-Bills (what a dreadful game for fans of offensive execution); Eagles-Redskins (just one of those days where nothing went right for Philly on offense or defense); Browns-Cowboys (Dallas played down to the competition again, especially pass blocking, but Romo was the hero in the end); Jets-Rams (again with giving up big plays to Total Fraud on the pump fake, which is the only thing he can do??); Bengals-Chiefs (yawn); Saints-Raiders (did we really think INT Santa could hang with Drew Brees?!); Chargers-Broncos (cheap backdoor cover obscures how dominant Denver was).
• Green Bay would have had no chance against Detroit because their pass rush was lagging and their pass blocking was atrocious.  But with the Lions leading 10-7 and about to score again in the middle of the 3rd, China Doll threw a pass slightly behind his receiver, who let it bounce off his fingers and into M.D. Jennings's hands for a pick-6.  It felt like all of the momentum changed there even though Detroit took the lead back.  If the Lions are up two possessions and able to light up the blitzes against Aaron Rodgers, I think it's Detroit's game all the way.  I'll give credit to the Packers for completing the comeback, but Detroit assisted them big time.  Penalties, miscommunication on offense, and they couldn't get a single 1st down on the last drive, allowing Green Bay to take over already in FG position so they could kick and cover the number.  In the end, it's my fault for trusting Detroit.  Lions gonna Lion.
• What a weird game in Atlanta.  On the panic scale, Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt's move to take out starting QB John Skelton up two scores after only seven pass attempts is a chart-topper.  Some rookie named Ryan Lindley got the call, and he performed shitty, which was predictable.  Hell, that move is probably the main reason why the Falcons didn't lose.  If the Cardinals could put up more than 6 points in the last 3 quarters, Matty Ice perhaps isn't able to complete the comeback.  Speaking of Matty Ice, how about 5 INTs (lots of tipped passes that weren't his fault) and no TDs?  How did he win doing that?  Oh yeah, the opposing coach is Ken Whisenhunt.
• Carolina played an equally weird game against Tampa Bay.  They were their usual terrible, uninspired selves, losing 10-0 in the 1st when Captain Munnerlyn took an INT to the house.  Then from that point, the Panthers were clearly the better team on the field for the next two quarters.  They found themselves up 21-10, but lost the lead in the 4th when they decided to run Cam Newton on 3rd-and-12 with under 2 minutes left leading by 8.  He gained 11.  How retarded was that?  Who runs their QB on 3rd-and-12 trying to get a 1st down to ice the fucking game??  Tampa got the ball back, Josh Freeman led the drive for the TD and 2-point conversion to force OT, then threw the game winner on the only possession of OT.  Carolina just finds new ways to lose games every damn week.  It's unbelievable.  Ron Rivera needs to get shitcanned the moment the season ends.  As for Tampa, Freeman is a Pro Bowler without question.  He's been awesome the last month or so.  They may overcome their defense and make the playoffs riding the backs of Freeman and Muscle Hamster.
• I'm surprised but not shocked at how much different the Jacksonville Jaguars looked on offense with a different quarterback.  Blaine Gabbert has been fertilizer from the second he got drafted.  I won't pretend that I love Chad Henne and was just waiting for him to get a chance, but I remember flashes that he showed as a Dolphin, and Gabbert hasn't shown me any flashes.  But still, immediate great play from WR Justin Blackmon, when he's been nothing all season?  A direct result of an actual pro QB at the position.  But the more important lesson to learn from this game is, do not forget what kind of weapons on offense the Houston Texans have.  Just because they don't use them very much as they execute their running attack and sleepily wear teams down, don't lose sight of what Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are capable.  When the defense is clicking, they can beat anyone.  And even when the defense is shellshocked by a competent QB, the Texans managed to find a win.
• That Andrew Luck-Tom Brady duel to which we were looking forward lasted about a quarter.  All hell broke loose against Indianapolis at New England in the 2nd quarter.  The Julian Edelman punt return for a TD was immediately followed by Aqib Talib, in his very first game at CB for the Patriots, grabbing a pick-6, and you don't have to be smart to know that New England discovering points in ways other than what Brady and the offense can do is going to spell trouble.  New England got to flex their pass rush muscles in the 2nd half, and poor Luck couldn't accomplish anything because he didn't have time.  The biggest news came on the 59th point for NE, when stud TE Rob Gronkowski, manning his usual position blocking on the extra point team, managed to break his arm.  I've already been hearing people rush to coach Bill Belichick's defense, but I'm here to tell you, that's a really stupid thing to have a stud like that on special teams.  When I start a new season on Madden, one of the 1st things I do is go through my special teams formations to make sure I don't have anyone of value there.  So Sunday proves it once and for all:  I, fat, broke blogger, am much smarter than Bill Belichick.
• Three plays of offense for Pittsburgh, and next thing you know, Byron Leftwich is sprinting (or in his case, power walking) to the right and going in for a TD on a broken play, and the Baltimore defense had to be in a state of shock.  And that was about the end of Leftwich's big day.  The Steelers put up 3 more points all evening, which was enough for Jason to cover the spread, but not enough to win the game.  Hats off to the Ravens D for rebounding and stoning Pittsburgh the rest of the way, as they should have.  Joe Flacco caught the Eli Manning disease and was off target most of the night, and that's the biggest reason Baltimore couldn't cover.  But they did win a game they were supposed to win, and they'll do it again at home in a couple of weeks when the Steelers challenge them once again without Ben Roethlisberger.  As Jason said, however, that's so Ravens to fall short of the number when expected to dominate.
• We should have known we were fucked on Monday night the moment it was announced Colin Kaepernick would start at QB for San Francisco instead of concussed incumbent Alex Smith.  I said in my preview that Kaep was a better choice than Smith, so this isn't re-writing history.  The 49ers are much more dangerous on offense with Kaepernick at the helm than with Alex Smith.  It's a case where the numbers can be deceiving.  Under Smith, SF is averaging 8 yards per pass attempt, which is above average, for sure.  But because they don't trust Smith and they do trust the running attack, they don't throw much, if at all.  So SF is only 28th in the league in passing yards per game.  If they had to throw more, that average per throw would come down tremendously.  It's much easier to maintain a high average when you don't have to put it in the air.  So when Coach Insane says after the game that he doesn't know if Smith will get his job back, don't be surprised.  He knows what he's watching out there, and so should we.  As for Chicago, well, Jason Campbell showed why he's a backup and not a starter in the NFL, and he showed it emphatically.  I do wonder if he will play much better in future games considering the two defenses he's had to play thus far--Houston and San Francisco.  That's a daily double against whom no backup could hope to have success.

Week 11 Records--Dre 5-9, .357; Jay 6-8, .429
YTD Records--Dre 83-74-3, .529; Jay 79-78-3, .503

Week 11 ATS Recap: That's So Ravens

It figured that the difference in gaining a game, or losing one, to Dre this week would hinge on the result of the Steelers-Ravens Sunday Night matchup. This was a shoo-in for the Ravens, of course, since Pittsburgh was starting Byron "The Statue" Leftwich at QB. It had all the makings of a Baltimore squoosh. Funny thing about those Ravens, though, is their ability to play down to the level of their competition and come up small against a team they needed to beat.

Picks We Both Won (3)

• Bills (-1) 19, Dolphins 14 - The Fins tried to make it interesting late, but two late Ryan Tannehill picks doomed the Miami comeback. Easy Thursday wins to start a week are always nice.
• Bucs (-1) 27, Panthers 21 (OT) -  The Josh Freeman renaissance continues, making me glad I stayed on as President and Original Member of the Josh Freeman Fan Club. Tampa has positioned themselves nicely to make a playoff push, while Carolina is such a hard team to take as a cover right now. I could hear the pain in Dre's voice as he picked Tampa, as Cam Newton is inspiring so little confidence that it's really tough to go with the Panthers in any situation.
• Bengals (-3½) 28, Chiefs 6 - The Chiefs switched from Matt Cassel to Brady Quinn at halftime, and I doubt anyone noticed. They're both so awful right now that they could probably wear each others jersey.

Picks We Both Lost (6)

• Redskins (-3½) 31, Eagles 6 - Methinks that Nick Foles isn't the answer in Philly, nor was firing Juan Castillo. What a mess.
• Texans 43, Jaguars (+15) 37 (OT) - So Blaine Gabbet gets hurt and the Jags turn into the '98 Vikings offense? That's more an indictment of Gabbert than the Texans defense, who I'm sure were completely taken unaware by the Jags passing attack. Houston rallied from down two touchdowns in the 4th quarter to steal the Jags second win away from them. And as with Atlanta the week before, the Texans allowing the Jags to hang with them has many talking heads doubting their credibility, despite their 9-1 record. Incredible.
• Saints (-4½) 38, Raiders 17 - Dre informed me that he had picked up Interception Santa to helm his fantasy team this week. All I asked for from Santa was a pick-6 for Malcolm Jenkins. Palmer delivered, so thanks Santa!
• Patriots (-9½) 59, Colts 24 - Where was the inspiring postgame speech from Chuck Pagano after THIS? He better stay focused on the daughters weddings, cause raising that Lombardi looks a little farther off after the whoop-ass unleashed by Tom Brady.
• Broncos 30, Chargers (+8½) 23 - We were done in by the dreaded Garbage Time Touchdown. Happens to all of us. Watch out for these Broncos, their remaining schedule is surprisingly light, and 12 wins look within reach. But 12 wins a season is old hat for Peyton Manning, so let's see what Denver does in the postseason. The AFC West race is over.
• Niners (-6) 32, Bears 7 - So much went wrong for the Bears, and most of it had to do with the stellar play of Colin Kaepernick and the Bears horrendous offensive line. Aldon Smith and the Niners D-line were unstoppable against the Bear front and handed Jason Campbell his lunch all night long. Where are all the people calling Jay Cutler a pussy now? It looks like San Francisco might have a little healthy QB controversy on their hands, and while I hate most of them as pure fan/media fabrications, the product the Niners displayed for all to see Monday Night even had me thinking a QB change was at hand. We'll see.

Picks Dre Won Head to Head (2)

• Falcons 23, Cardinals (+9½) 19 - The Texans of the NFC, the Crap Falcons, survived 5 Matt Ryan picks to escape with a win, becoming the first team to accomplish that in something like 70 years. As with Houston, I contend that good teams find ways to win even when things are going to shit around them, but apparently we have two 9-1 teams, and no trust in either.
• Jets (+3½) 27, Rams 13 - The Jets pull one off like this once in a while, everyone gets off their backs for a week, and then they get destroyed the next week and it's all back to normal. Oh look who the Jets play in Week 12....New England. Good luck with that.

Picks I Won Head to Head (3)

• Packers (-3) 24, Lions 20 - It certainly wasn't convincing, but it was a cover. As with Atlanta and Houston, the Packers did what they needed to do and toughed out a win on a day they didn't bring their best stuff. After the Monday night massacre the Bears endured, the Packers moved into a first place tie with Chicago. For all that early season handwringing about the Packers, things look to be back on track toward the playoffs.
• Cowboys 23, Browns (+9½) 20 (OT) - The Dallas Cowboys: still the stupidest team in football. Yet things might work out in Big D, because if the Giants can't get their shit together, the Cowboys might just sneak out a division win. They'll need it to make the postseason, because it doesn't look like a Wild Card is coming out the NFC Least.
• Ravens 13, Steelers (+3½) 10 - Letting me sneak out a cheap win on a hook? That's So Ravens!

2012 Week #11

Great that we got off to a hot start on Thursday, because I don't feel so hot about this week.  There's a lot of tough point spreads out there, and I'm choosing to "get cute" quite a few times, taking a dog to cover but not to win.  Let's see how that works out.

Fav	Spread	Dog	Final		Dre	Jay
	Thu. Nite
BUF (3-6)	1	Mia (4-5)	Buf 19-14		Buf	Buf
	Sunday
WASH (3-6)	3½	Phi (3-6)			Phi	Phi
GB (6-3)	3	DET (4-5)			Det	GB
ATL (8-1)	9½	Ariz (4-5)			Ariz	Atl
TB (5-4)	1	CAR (2-7)			TB	TB
DAL (4-5)	9½	Cle (2-7)			Dal	Cle
STL (3-5-1)	3½	NYJ (3-6)			NY	StL
HOU (8-1)	15	Jack (1-8)			Hou	Hou
Cin (4-5)	3½	KC (1-8)			Cin	Cin
NO (4-5)	4½	OAK (3-6)			Oak	Oak
NE (6-3)	9½	Ind (6-3)			Ind	Ind
DEN (6-3)	8½	SD (4-5)			Den	Den
	Sun. Nite
Bal (7-2)	3½	PIT (6-3)			Bal	Pit
	Mon. Nite
SF (6-2-1)	6	Chi (7-2)			Chi	Chi

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• Jason starts out getting cute with no Michael Vick playing for the Eagles.  He likes Philly to cover as a dog at RG3, but Washington to win.  No Vick means no turning the fucking ball over to the opponent once you reach their red zone, or at least a reduced chance of that happening.  I agree totally with Jay's logic.  Vick had become toxic with his refusal to let go of the ball until someone was about to level him, and from what little I saw of the Philadelphia QB Nick Foles, he's already more trustworthy than Vick.  I don't know if he'll have enough success to save Andy Reid's job, but against the porous Redskins secondary, I'll take him to pull out an upset win.
• I'm not getting cute with the 3-point line in Detroit.  I got the Lions to knock off the Packers.  Why?  Because I was looking forward to Green Bay getting some very talented guys back from injury coming off the bye, and for the most part, they're staying sidelined.  No Greg Jennings, no Charles Woodson, no Clay Matthews (the only pass rush they have), and Jordy Nelson is still gimping around.  They need all hands on deck the way Detroit is moving the ball through the air (#1 in the NFL), and they don't have 'em.  Jason still calls for a rout.  The weapons GB still have remaining should be enough to beat the Lions.
• I will get cute and pick the rotting corpse of the Arizona Cardinals to come off their bye and give Atlanta a fight.  The Falcons haven't been impressive at home this year ATS, and I'm wondering if they'll have a bit of trouble motivating themselves after losing the perfect season last week.  This isn't exactly a team chock full of veterans who know how to move on from such a disappointment.  What's their mental state?  Jason's not worried about any of that because they're still playing the Cardinals, after all.  Smells like a 40-17 bounce back to him.
• I'll take Tampa to win and cover that 1.  Wow, I'm out on a limb!  But seriously folks, I can't justify taking the Panthers, one of the NFL's lowest performers, against the Buccaneers, who are outperforming all expectations at the moment.  As much as I want to give Cam Newton another chance against an awful pass defense, he hasn't done enough to warrant it.  Neither has his coaching staff, who refuse to let him throw more even though he's averaging 8 yards per pass attempt.  The power run attack hasn't worked, so it's time to try something else, but coach Ron Rivera and his crew don't seem to be bright enough.  Jason's loving his guy Josh Freeman putting together a big year, so he's on the bandwagon firmly.
• Jay's not going to trust "the stupidest team in football," the Dallas Cowboys, to cover double digits over the Cleveland Browns.  He feels that they will find a way to give up a garbage-time TD and win by one possession.  I'm no Browns fan, I'm no Brandon Weeden fan, and I'm not trusting a team 0-4 on the road and who may be without their best cornerback, Joe Haden.  One of these days, the Cowboys have to step up against an inferior team and stomp them out.  Don't they?
• Here's where I get really cute.  St. Louis should build on forcing a tie against the mighty 49ers and take that momentum back home against the circus that is the New York Jets, and they should beat the hell out of the Jets and cover the number.  But I don't trust the Rams to be able to accomplish that.  The Rams are 19th in passing, and Sam Bradford to me is competing for the Total Fraud title because that's horrible for a #1 overall draft pick in his 3rd year.  However, Mark Sanchez has been extra "fraudy" lately, and I can't possibly think he would lead the Jets to a victory.  So yeah, Rams by a FG.  What the hay.  Jason will take St. Louis over the hot mess that is Gang Green, and I don't blame him one bit.
• If we did Power Rankings, there's a good chance Houston would be #1 and Jacksonville would be #32, although Jason says he's got teams with worse records as more dangerous in his mind than the Texans.  But this is the rare battle of consensus best team in the league vs. worst team, and we're not able to take the worst team to cover that massive number.  It would be harder if Houston had displayed a more consistent offense this year, because we know that hot offenses can make spreads even bigger than this one.  I think the Jags would be 16 or 17-point dogs at New England, to use one example.  But Houston can cover this number by scoring on only three possessions.  TD, TD, FG, smother the pathetic Jags offense.  17-0 works for us.
• The impossible-to-predict Bengals travel to Kansas City, and if you believe in the Chiefs after that impressive effort at Pittsburgh this past Monday, then you would have to like them to lose by less than 3½ or maybe even win.  Color us not believers.  Will the Bengals slay another bum?  We'll stick with them after they handed a whoopin' to the Giants.  We might have had to go another direction if the line was bigger, because Cincy winning by a TD on the road would be hard to imagine, but this number is small enough for us.
• Back to gettin' cute:  New Orleans engages in another duel with a crappy pass defense a week after prevailing over Atlanta, and I got them beating Oakland and Interception Santa by a point or two after Santa delivers the game-winning pick.  I'm not about to trust the Saints to run off a long streak of covers with their D still playing as terrible as they are.  And frankly, I chuckle at them being a 4½-point fav on the road versus a team with a whopping one less win than them.  Jason will go even further, taking Oakland to win.  The Raiders can't run or defend Drew Brees, but that's how Godawful the New Orleans defense is.
• Should be a shootout in Foxboro between the Colts and Patriots, perhaps reminiscent of the Manning-Brady contests from last decade?  Is Andrew Luck ready for that and all it entails?  You know he's hearing the comparisons all week, and that can be smothering to a youngster.  But Jason and I really like Luck's makeup, and we think he'll rise to the moment and engage Terrific Tom in a back-and-forth, which should result in a one-possession loss, which easily covers 9½ points.  I believe Jay threw out a 400-yard game for Luck.  If that happens, he really needs to hit Vegas.
• Speaking of Peyton Manning, he gets to torch the San Diego back end once again, you remember, the defense that let Manning come back from down 24-0 in Week 6 on Monday night.  Boy, the Chargers have to come in deflated after somehow losing that game in Tampa last week to drop below .500.  This is a must-win game for them, but unfortunately, it's against Peyton Manning in the midst of one of his hottest stretches ever.  Gotta go Broncos squoosh here.
• Jason is going rogue on Sunday night, taking Byron Leftwich and the Pittsburgh Steelers to upset the Baltimore Ravens.  He sees Leftwich going off on a Ravens team that's good at underestimating opponents, especially when they travel.  If Baltimore is next level this year, as Jay and I both believed in picking them to win the Super Bowl, then they are not going to gag in the prime-time moment as they have in the past.  So I will keep the faith in them and believe that they see a chance to bury their prime rival in the next couple of weeks while they play without their leader at QB.  A big factor not to overlook:  The Steelers are also without their 2nd-best WR, Antonio Brown, so Leftwich will be keying on Mike Wallace, and when he's not there, it will be Emanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery coming to the rescue, and I think that spells really bad news for Pittsburgh.
• On Monday, it appears that Alex Smith will take the helm for San Francisco against the Bears defense.  We really like that.  I'm of the opinion that the Niners would have been much more dangerous with Colin Kaepernick at QB because he can play from behind or in front with his athleticism, whereas Smith has been proven to only be able to play from in front.  Jason the Bear Whisperer is on my side, pointing to the circumstances being ripe for his traditional Chicago pick:  They're on national TV, they're visiting the West Coast, and they're the underdog.  I don't know how much better Jason Campbell will be at QB for Chicago than he was last week, but the defense feeding on Alex Smith should give Campbell a cushion to relax.  In what should be a violent encounter of two defenses hammering the fuck out of each other, we'll take the Bears to come out on top.

Thu. Nite Dolphins @ Bills

Well, looks like it's back to the comfortable position of going with the home team on the short week for Jason and me.  Buffalo only being a 1-point home fav tells you what the public thinks of them.  But Jay has them winning in a 30-20 gunfight.  I'm seeing a slower-paced matchup with lots of good running by both teams.  Daniel Thomas and C.J. Spiller are great fantasy plays tonight.  I don't have a ton of confidence in the Bills, but certainly they can hang around with the Fish and steal it by a FG at the end.  So long as Jason and I start the week with a winner, it's all good.

My Pick:  Buffalo 20-17

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2012 Week 10: What I Learned

• Games in no detail:  Colts-Jaguars (Jags suck), Broncos-Panthers (Cam scores 1st, Peyton answers with a million points in a row), Titans-Dolphins (Tennessee was really inspired by what the Bears did to them, I guess), Bills-Patriots (that's a couple of piss-poor defenses right there), Raiders-Ravens (Baltimore really respected Oakland, running a fake FG up 41-17), Jets-Seahawks (ho hum, another defensive smothering by Seattle).
• Yeah, yeah, sour grapes, I know, but I'll say it anyway:  The better team didn't win in Tampa.  Philip Rivers and the Chargers were wiping the field with the Buccaneers, but Josh Freeman pulled it out in the end.  He had help from the Chargers special teams, which reared its ugly head by allowing a momentum-shifting punt block for a TD.  Freeman had some great moves in the pocket to avoid the rush, and that allowed him to make the plays and complete the comeback.  Rivers isn't known for his mobility, so when he rolled right late in the game, his ill-advised toss downfield was intercepted for another TD.  I'm still not impressed with the Bucs, but I think the Bolts are going to get crapped on for finding another way to lose, and I'm not so sure they're underwater as most folks will claim.
• Watched the whole Giants-Bengals game.  Saw Eli Manning in action.  Yep, agree with the diagnosis.  Something's really fucking wrong with his arm on deep throws.  He drilled short and intermediate throws all over the place hard and accurate, but the handful of deep throws he attempted were way off.  I mean, way off.  That deep ball just ain't there for Eli right now.  And the deeper the hole got, the more Eli tried to wait for deep routes to develop while getting up the nerve to throw, and he wound up getting sacked more often than not.  Can't trust the G-Men until I see Eli throw deep with accuracy, whenever that will be.  Cincy can contend if they keep that kind of pass rush going, but I don't know how many more teams they're going to play with a crap pass protection like New York.
• There's not much to say about the Falcons-Saints game, but I wanted to say how wrong I was.  I said that New Orleans would definitely not make the defensive plays to win the game, and they did.  Atlanta gave up points and yards, New Orleans gave up points and yards, and in the end, Matty Ice had the ball and a chance to win, and they couldn't make the plays.  Now that I've admitted I was wrong, I will now point out that Matt Ryan threw deep on the last drive for Roddy White, who was wide fucking open, but because it was a broken play, he had stopped running, and he couldn't catch up to the ball over his head.  But he beat two NO defensive backs whose job it was to keep all Falcons in front of them leading by 4.  So that's how New Orleans made the defensive plays to break the undefeated record of the Falcons.  Congrats.
• Minnesota's still going to collapse and not make the playoffs, but they got to knock out the Lions once again and feel good about themselves.  Taking the early lead started the snowball rolling downhill, because that led to the Vikings pass rush pounding on Matthew Stafford, which led to the Vikings running the ball with Adrian Peterson, which led to more Minny points, and so on and so forth.  I would have never thought Christian Ponder could have found receivers to take an early lead with Percy Harvin injured.  World, meet Jarius Wright.  Who??
• QB KTFO #1:  Michael Vick, Eagles (concussed).  Nick Foles showed some promise when he came in for Vick, but ultimately, he couldn't beat Dallas by himself.  The same o-line problems Philadelphia had with Vick were there with Foles.  The Eagles started well, too, with a TD pass on the opening drive, but as overhyped and overdramatic as the Cowboys are every year, they got their shit together better than Philly.
• QB KTFO #2:  Alex Smith, 49ers (concussed).  Credit his replacement, Colin Kaepernick, with sparking the offense and coming back to force a tie with the Rams.  I tweeted that San Francisco was dead because they trailed St. Louis 14-0, and we know Alex Smith can't come back from that kind of deficit.  He didn't have to.  Mad props to Kaep.
• QB KTFO #3:  Jay Cutler, Bears (concussed).  His replacement, Jason Campbell, looked like he hadn't played an NFL game in a while, and he couldn't lead a comeback against Houston, who only scored 13 points, so it's not like the comeback was a giant number.  But Chicago's running game was struggling while Houston's was thriving, so it was much harder to get a pass attack going for the Bears because they were in 3rd-and-long all night while the Texans were in 3rd-and-short.  That's pretty much the game in a nutshell.
• QB KTFO #4:  Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (shoulder).  If you saw his replacement, Byron Leftwich, then you know why Pittsburgh couldn't cover against the Chiefs and why they almost lost the game.  Kansas City put up a hell of a fight, though.  They finally took a lead, scoring first, and they didn't let the Steelers push them around physically.  Special recognition goes to LB Derrick Johnson for singlehandedly crushing Pittsburgh's attempt to establish the run.  The Chiefs still lost because they are supreme at finding ways to lose, but they fought like hell for 60 minutes.  It was the extra time that did them in.

Week 10 Records--Dre 6-8, .429; Jay 7-7, .500
YTD Records--Dre 78-65-3, .545, Jay 73-70-3, .510 

Week 10 ATS Recap: Where One Loss Means You Suck

Picks We Both Won (4)

• Colts (-3) 27, Jaguars 10 - It's great for the Colts to be sitting on 6 wins already and in the drivers seat for a playoff berth, but it's come at the expense of some also-rans during their 4 game win streak. A big test awaits them at New England.
• Patriots 37, Bills (+13) 31 - Neither of us expected the Pats to put on a 4th quarter offensive explosion the way it went down the last time these two teams met. Buffalo is always good for hanging with the Pats at least once a year, and came up with a nice cover.
• Seahawks (-6) 28, Jets 7 - Something tells me I should copyright "The Meat Grinder" because I get the sense that the moniker for the Seabags home turf is going to suspiciously catch on somewhere.
• Cowboys (-1) 38, Eagles 23 - Eagle fans anxious to see more Nick Foles seem to forgot how he gave up the booty on two late defensive scores for the Boys. This Vick hate is very reminiscent of all the Cutler hate in Chicago. That went well last year once Cutler got hurt, right Bears fans?

Picks We Both Lost (5)

• Titans (+6) 37, Dolphins 3 - The Titans went back to Jake Locker, and now that Chris Johnson isn't completely useless, the product on the field looked markedly better for Tennessee. It didn't help Miami that Ryan Tannehill decided to shit the bed all day long either with three picks.
• Saints (+1) 31, Falcons 27 - To hear it in the media now, these 8-1 Falcons are total shit and not to be trusted, as if the only way to prove themselves would have been to go 16-0 and sweep through the playoffs. Despite a lackluster defensive effort, Matt Ryan had two late chances to win but couldn't convert on two separate 4th and goal situations. The Saints are being propped up as a very dangerous late season team, but I still see them as a spoiler with too little defense to surge out past several better teams. As for Atlanta? Worst 8-1 team ever, apparently.
• Vikings (+3) 34, Lions 24 - Thanks, Detroit, for temporarily messing up my prediction of the Vikings starting strong but still managing to finish in last. If Adrian Peterson keeps up what he's doing, however, he might run himself to an MVP.
• Niners 24, Rams (+12½) 24 - Insert random Donovan McNabb joke here ______________
• Steelers 16, Chiefs (+11½) 13 OT - For a crap team, the Chiefs sure seem to show up in primetime a lot. But, like last year, they managed to compete against a team they had no business being on the same field with. Like last year, they found a way to lose late, though I do think the Steelers had a little help in that 4th quarter (hint: bad officiating).

Picks Dre Won Head to Head (2)

• Ravens (-9½) 55, Raiders 20 - Yeah, that was me making fun of the Ravens offense.
• Bengals (+4) 31, Giants 13 - Dre went all Ron Jaworski and broke down the poor play of Eli Manning, and wow was he right. For one weekend, you couldn't tell which NY team had the worse QB, and that's hard to do with Sanchez in town.

Picks I Won Head to Head (3)

• Broncos (-4) 36, Panthers 14 - Peyton Manning is continuing to show why he should be an MVP candidate this season, and should have been one last season, when he didn't take a single snap. The Broncos are clearly the class of their division, though that's not saying too much, but also look to be a serious title contender in the AFC.
• Bucs (-3) 34, Chargers 24 - The Chargers dominated the stat sheet again, but turnovers did them in. I think that could be the recap of every Chargers loss the last several seasons. San Diego is a serious contender to unseat Dallas as the stupidest team in football, if they haven't already.
• Texans (+1) 13, Bears 6 - Dre never learns. His homerism forgot to notice that The Bear Whisperer had abandoned his beloved team. Houston toughed one out in the wind, rain, and muck of Soldier Field, and surprisingly looked more ready for "Bear weather" than the Bears did. Having Arian Foster helps a lot too, as well as having a Bear offense forget that anyone other than Brandon Marshall is on the field. Bear fans might be overjoyed that Mike Martz isn't calling the plays anymore, but at least he knew who Matt Forte was. Mike Tice (Dre's favorite head coach ever) has no clue.

2012 Week #10

The boys were back at it, trading barbs and talking shit while we made our picks for the week.  We didn't talk as much shit as normal because both of our voices are still on the mend, but I got a couple of nuggets to spice up the notes after the picks.

Fav	Spread	Dog	Final		Dre	Jay
	Thu. Nite
Ind (5-3)	3	JACK (1-7)	Ind 27-10		Ind	Ind
	Sunday
Den (5-3)	4	CAR (2-6)			Car	Den
TB (4-4)	3	SD (4-4)			SD	TB
MIA (4-4)	6	Tenn (3-6)			Mia	Mia
NE (5-3)	13	Buf (3-5)			Buf	Buf
BAL (6-2)	9½	Oak (3-5)			Bal	Oak
NYG (6-3)	4	CIN (3-5)			Cin	NY
Atl (8-0)	1	NO (3-5)			Atl	Atl
Det (4-4)	3	MIN (5-4)			Det	Det
SEA (5-4)	6	NYJ (3-5)			Sea	Sea
Dal (3-5)	1	PHI (3-5)			Dal	Dal
SF (6-2)	12½	StL (3-5)			SF	SF
	Sun. Nite
CHI (7-1)	1	Hou (7-1)			Chi	Hou
	Mon. Nite
PIT (5-3)	11½	KC (1-7)			Pit	Pit

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• I'm going with a straight hunch in taking Carolina over Denver.  Comparing stats, you'd have to take Peyton Manning and the Broncos over Cam Newton and the Panthers every time, but I think Cam's broken out of his spell and he'll be able to propel Carolina to an upset win.  Jason thinks it's a slam dunk to go with the hot team in Denver, and I don't blame him, but I'm siding with the moody phenom.  Wait, not clear enough...the black moody phenom.  There, that's better.
• Tampa Bay's pretty hot themselves.  Josh Freeman's found something, observes the president of the Josh Freeman Fan Club, JTG, and the Bucs are on a roll.  Jay's happy to pick Freeman and Doug "Muscle Hamster" Martin over the Bolts.  He even calls 3 TD receptions against his old team for the former Charger Vincent Jackson.  I definitely don't see San Diego letting that happen.  I'll take the Chargers in a squeaker because if it's going to be a shootout, I'm still trusting the experience of Philip Rivers over Freeman.  It's all about Rivers for me.  If he performs, they win, if not, Tampa will romp.
• We both are queasy about giving six points and picking the up-and-down Miami Dolphins, but my fucking God, Tennessee is a terrible team in need of a new coach and philosophy.  My guy Jake Locker returns to the lineup for the Titans.  His gift is a welcome from Cameron Wake.  Someone get the blotter.
• New England opened up a can of whoop-ass in the 4th quarter at Buffalo earlier this season, and we're just not feeling the Pats coughing up another period quite like that.  That's a lot of points, and very few teams rely on being in a rhythm like New England and their precision offense.  I'm hoping that their bye week will throw them off long enough for the Bills to score a couple of times and build an insurmountable point-spread lead, so when NE comes back again, at least Buffalo still wins with the points.
• Jason thinks Baltimore's offense falls into that old category with other teams who couldn't score to save their lives.  He says the Ravens will have trouble covering 10 points because they will have trouble scoring 10 points.  He correctly pointed out all of the tight games in which the Ravens have been involved this season.  All fine and good.  But I am not picking Interception Santa going West to East playing at 1P Eastern without Darren McFadden running the ball for him.  And Baltimore's offense isn't bad, it's thoroughly mediocre.  They're 16th rushing and 15th passing, and that should be good enough to beat a beat-up Raiders squad by two TDs.
• Here's a situation where someone thinks they've scouted something and now it's up to us, the general public, to decide what to believe.  You know the crappy throws Eli Manning has been making over the last few games for the Giants?  NFL Films' Greg Cosell said that he watched film with Ron Jaworski and has diagnosed Manning with a dead arm, like a major league pitcher halfway through the baseball season.  You know what?  Sounds like as good an explanation as any to me.  All I know is, I'm going to have a hard time picking the G-Men until I see better consistency on the deep throw from Eli.  Jason will back New York against the fizzling Bengals.
• I didn't ask Jason, but I thought for sure I'd be backing the Saints in this battle when it came up on the schedule.  And with the Falcons undefeated?  It will be rockin' in the Superdome, and Atlanta will have a very hard time combating that.  Well, they've fucking combated every other challenge so far this year, so why not?  Drew Brees will have to throw for over 500 yards to build a lead big enough to hold off a Falcons comeback, and that's unlikely, so we have to back the Dirty Birds.  In a very fun gunfight, which defense do you trust more to make the big play to win the game?  Hint:  NOT NEW ORLEANS.
• That starts a string of picks where we're seeing eye-to-eye.  The Vikings are falling fast, so we're backing the Lions in a road division tussle.  Detroit will struggle to stop Adrian Peterson, like everyone else, and then they'll look at Minnesota try to execute a passing attack without their only WR, Percy Harvin, and they'll laugh and sack Christian Ponder multiple times and romp in the Twin Cities.
• Seattle.  Meat Grinder.  Total Fraud.  Check, please.
• Dallas visiting the completely untrustworthy Michael Vick.  The Eagles are just pitiful.
• I'm skeptical of giving all those points and backing such a one-dimensional offense like San Francisco, and so is Jay.  But it's all about the 49ers defense.  Jay did the stat work for this one:  Last four SF wins, they've allowed 0, then 3, then 6, then 3.  Sam Bradford and your #24 pass offense, best wishes.
• Jason's backing the Texans in a huge road tilt at Chicago because he thinks they're going to be very motivated to show better than they did the first time they played a Sunday night game, which resulted in their only loss of the season to Green Bay.  I remember typing that I don't think Houston is very good based on their showing, and I still don't think Houston is very good.  I think the Bears are hella motivated after that piece of performance art in Nashville.  I know I'd want to get after the next opponent ASAP to prove that the Titans game wasn't a fluke.  In fact, I think that Titans game is the type of game a team builds off for the next several games.  I'm taking the Bears here, and I can already tell you that I'll be happy to take them next Monday in San Fran.  Write that shit down.
• Kansas City?  The team that can't take a lead?  On the road at a surging Pittsburgh team?  In prime time?  Come on.  When we see a reason to pick the Chiefs, we'll let you know.  I think I got KC getting all the way to 13, of course after letting the Steelers get to 34.  Jason's predicting the ol' blanking.  Either way, squoosh.

Thu. Nite Colts @ Jaguars

If you checked my What I Learned from this past week, you already know my pick.  The Colts are decent, the Jaguars are terrible, and Jason and I are both compelled to take the road team on a short week.  Indianapolis gives 3 points to Jacksonville.  It's not enough.  Whoa mama, it's not enough.  Jason's generous and calling it 19-13 Colts.  I got Andrew Luck lighting it up on the national stage and flinging four touchdowns in a straight up rout.

My Pick:  Indianapolis 31-16

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2012 Week 9: What I Learned

And I actually watched some games this time, so I can comment without talking completely out my ass!

• I had the score of the Chiefs-Chargers game nailed on the head early in the 4th quarter.  My 17-6 was looking nice until Kansas City did what they've been doing all year, which is, play from behind panicked and with zero poise and start turning the ball over constantly.  And next thing you know, there went the over.  But at least I didn't pick those Chiefs, so it was all good.  Man, KC is one shit team.  I can't call them a mail-it-in team because I'm not sure I've ever seen a very good effort from them by which I can compare.  Just keep watching in awe to see if they will ever hold a lead, and don't you dare pick them unless they're at home playing an equally shitty team.
• Alfred Morris is still running hard for Washington, but he's a rookie, so that will stop soon.  They're fucked when it does.  Robert Griffin III's play action out of that grade-school triple option crap is how he gets most of his big downfield throws.  When that running game disappears, watch out.  The long drive by the Redskins in the 2nd quarter down 7-3 may have decided their loss against Carolina.  It took about 7 minutes off the clock, it included two 4th-down conversions, and it ended with RG3 trying to run it in on 4th and goal from the 2 on a sprint sweep to the right, which got walled off.  I like the guts, but when you work that hard and get nothing for it, it can take the spirit out of you, and that's what happened the rest of the game.  And an observation about Cam Newton:  Dude, you got all the celebratory moves, after a TD, after a 1st-down run, you make sure everyone sees how happy you are for yourself, and then if you lose, your bottom lip is out and you can't figure out what's wrong.  It's going to be fascinating watching how you develop in the public eye, but at the moment, you're just a pure douche.  Love watching you play though.
• I made sure to watch the Detroit-Jacksonville game because the Jags have to host the Thursday game this week.  I wanted to see if they should get the same consideration as every other team hosting on a Thursday night.  The answer is, no, they shouldn't.  They absolutely stink.  That QB Blaine Gabbert is still no good.  He seems to have no touch at all.  He didn't just overthrow some of his guys, he put the ball in places where two or three defenders had a better crack at catching it than his intended receiver.  And he did that many times, and I guess that's why the Jaguars are once again ranked DFL in passing.
• I think the Bears defense just scored again.
• Denver's pass rush is becoming a very underreported factor in the team's success.  Everyone knows about what Peyton Manning's doing, but Cincinnati had the home-field advantage and forced a couple of INTs, so they had a shot at winning this one easily.  The Bengals took a lead early in the 4th quarter, then Peyton did his thing.  But the Broncos pass rush is what allowed Peyton to get the ball back a 2nd time and score again, thus covering the number for us.
• In the same vein, Baltimore's in real trouble if they don't find a way to generate a pass rush.  Cleveland scoring on five drives against the heralded Ravens defense should never happen, and it would have resulted in a Browns victory and more Brown Fever if they could have completed a few of those drives for TDs instead of having to settle for 3.  Terrell Suggs hustled back from injury to lend a hand to the Baltimore sack attack, but if he's not going to show up on gameday (one QB hit against Brandon Weeden), it doesn't really matter how quick he returned.
• I think the Bears special teams just scored again.
• Yep, that thar's a professional quarterback they got down in Naptown.  Andrew Luck lit up the Dolphins for 433 yards, a rookie record, and he's got the Indianapolis Colts at 5-3, which no one should have predicted.  And Ryan Tannehill almost kept pace for Miami, but it's clear that when Luck gets in a rhythm in his domed home, he's sizzling hot.
• It's getting almost predictable in Seattle.  Pound opponent with Beast Skittles at RB, trust rookie QB enough to make key 3rd-down throws and not much else, count on defense and home crowd to suffocate opponent's comeback attempts.  Rinse, lather, repeat.  As someone making picks on a public blog for all to scrutinize, I must say, I like predictable.  Keep it comin', Pete Carroll!
• You know who else is predictable?  Interception Santa!!  Ho ho ho, Carson Palmer had balls to deliver to all the good boys on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, to the delight of Josh Freeman, Doug Martin, Greg Schiano, and those who picked the Bucs, namely Jason and me.  Only Carson could put up 414 yards and three TDs and ruin the day by stopping the Oakland comeback bid cold with his legendary inaccuracy.  As for Martin, who ran for 251 and four TDs,  I can't help but be impressed, but the kid is from Oakland, so be wary.  This was probably one of those all-timers that he pulled out to show off to his homiez.  Don't count on anything remotely resembling this game in the future.
• I think the Bears defense just scored again.
• Some of those ref calls early made me think that the New York Giants were the chosen ones and that they were going to be awarded the game versus Pittsburgh to honor the victims of SuperStorm Sandy.  Steelers coach mike Tomlin tried to give the game to the Giants too, calling for a dumb fake FG run in the 4th quarter that didn't fool anyone.  What happened was a little stunning and hard to believe.  All at once, Eli Manning lost his command and started throwing the ball all over the place, Isaac Redman started breaking off big running plays for Pittsburgh, and the Giants appeared to all get tired and worn down on defense.  On a day where the Steelers had to fly to the game that morning and should have been the ones wearing down, the G-Men found themselves running out of gas.  I put that on Eli ending drives with wild throws and keeping his defense on the field.  I also put that on Ahmad Bradshaw and the rest of the Giants' poor excuse for a backfield, because if they could run the ball in the 4th quarter, Eli wouldn't have had to throw.
• Dallas can blame lots of missed tackles for its close loss at Atlanta, but they can also blame themselves for not relying more on Tony Romo.  Wha??  Yes, Dallas should have relied more on Tony Romo to win that game.  It was clear that their running game was not up to the task.  Felix Jones ran for a grand total of 39 yards, and he was the leading rusher.  Romo threw 35 times for 321 yards, and I'm sorry, but if you told me before the game that Romo was throwing only 35 times, I'd say the Cowboys would lose.  When you bring no run game to the park like Dallas did, you gotta throw around 50 times if you want to have a chance.  Their only touchdown of the game was in the 4th quarter in a hurry-up offense where Romo was able to find a rhythm.  Hey, I've never said that Romo can't play NFL football.  I've always said that he can't seem to stop finding ways to lose games late.  But in the case of trying to figure a way to knock off the undefeated Falcons, the only way they were going to find a way to win was through Romo, and terrible coach Jason Garrett was way too conservative in his game plan.
• Keep an eye out for the Eagles as a mail-it-in team, because I don't know how many more times they can gather themselves to take the field for a football game and watch Michael Vick turn the ball over and refuse to throw the thing unless he's about to get clobbered.  I know I would be disheartened if I were on the Eagles.  No matter what I do for my team, the QB shits on it.  Fucking up the lateral on the kickoff return wasn't Vick's fault, at least I don't think it was, but it's another example of having your spirit crushed.  New Orleans is the most fun team to watch by a mile.  Throw it all around, score, give up yards every way you can imagine, let them score, back and forth they go.  In other words, don't buy the hype that they're going to make a run in the season's 2nd half.  No team with a D that bad can be trusted except on a game-to-game basis.

Week 9 Records--Dre 12-2, .857; Jay 8-6, .571
YTD Records--Dre 72-57-3, .558; Jay 66-63-3, .512

2012 Week #9

Your friendly neighborhood prognosticators are under the weather.  Jason e-mailed his picks with no detail whatsoever because he's getting over a bug, and I requested the e-mail instead of getting the detail over the phone because I have no voice right now.  So I am playing hurt, but I'm here with our picks for Week 9 as well as my detail for my selections.

	Thu. Nite
SD (3-4)	9	KC (1-6)	SD 31-13		SD	KC
	Sunday
WASH (3-5)	3	Car (1-6)			Car	Wash
GB (5-3)	10	Ariz (4-4)			GB	Ariz
Det (3-4)	5	JACK (1-6)			Jack	Jack
Chi (6-1)	3½	TENN (3-5)			Chi	Chi
Den (4-3)	4	CIN (3-4)			Den	Den
Bal (5-2)	3½	CLE (2-6)			Bal	Bal
HOU (6-1)	10	Buf (3-4)			Hou	Hou
Mia (4-3)	1	IND (4-3)			Ind	Mia
SEA (4-4)	4	Min (5-3)			Sea	Min
OAK (3-4)	1	TB (3-4)			TB	TB
NYG (6-2)	3	Pit (4-3)			NY	Pit
	Sun. Nite
ATL (7-0)	3½	Dal (3-4)			Atl	Atl
	Mon. Nite
NO (2-5)	3	Phi (3-4)			NO	NO

• We start with a head-to-head battle, as Jay will go with Robert Griffin III over Cam Newton in a contest of dissimilar black quarterbacks.  Griffin's wiry, fast and has his head screwed on, Newton's massive, egotistical, and seems to have a screw loose.  But I'm calling for the end of the ongoing soap opera that is Cam's Crisis of Confidence.  If Cam hasn't been licking his chops all week at the thought of coming into DC against the last-ranked pass defense in the league, then he really has lost his mojo.  But I think he knows that he's gotta do work versus this team.  Washington's lack of a pass rush has not stopped RG3 from collecting 3 wins, but it should really sting the Skins on Sunday.
• Interesting that Jason's taking the Cardinals to cover at the Pack after what Arizona did this past Monday night.  I wish I could ask him why, but he'd probably just say "Eh, it's a hunch."  I know Green Bay was less than impressive against Jacksonville.  Arizona is playing way worse than Jacksonville, and think about that for a second.  This is my Lock of the Week.
• And the Jaguars get to host the league's most undisciplined team, the Detroit Lions.  Guess we were both impressed with the Jags last week.  Well, I'm also influenced by the Detroit effort last week, and I'll take Jacksonville to win.  Calvin Johnson is very iffy for Detroit, and since they can't run, they need all the weapons they can get.
• This would be my lock if not for Green Bay.  Chicago struggled last week against a clearly inferior Carolina squad.  They've been grilled by the local media all week.  Fans are wondering how real they are.  The Titans are the perfect opponent at the perfect time.  They should trounce Tennessee by two touchdowns.  LP Field should be ringing with cheers from inebriated Bears fans.
• Can't pick the Bengals because they're playing a team that's not made of 53 scrubs.  Denver's also led by Peyton Manning, who's playing on another level right now.  He's the guy you want to lead your team into a tough road battle, because his focus and commitment won't be an issue.  Oh, and he's 7-0 lifetime versus Cincinnati.
• We could pick Cleveland again, but neither of us is trying his luck.  I just feel that if Baltimore is any good, then coming off their bye they fire off against the Brownies.  And Jason and I both picked Baltimore to win the Super Bowl, so they gotta come through here, because any team beaten by the Browns I don't think can win the Super Bowl.
• If Houston's any good, they roll over the Bills by 10 or more.  By the numbers, it's the worst run defense the Texans maybe have ever seen, and Arian Foster is poised for a monster effort.  He might run for 200 yards easy.
• Andrew Luck and the Colts will provide a big test for a Miami defense getting credited for their wins.  I don't think they can pass the test.  Luck knows to avoid a bad running game when he has to, and the Dolphins rush defense has been stout.  That leaves Luck to find a way to win with his arm, and he'll gladly accept the challenge.  Miami is trotting out a banged-up QB in Ryan Tannehill and a less-than-impressive group of receivers.  Reggie Bush could have a huge day running on the Colts, but I don't think it will be enough.
• I am completely gobsmacked that Jason is taking any visitor in the Meat Grinder, his nickname for Seattle's home stadium.  I'm even more stunned when I realize he's taking the Vikings.  Last we saw Minnesota, they were getting crucified at home against Tampa on a Thursday night.  The long rest between games shouldn't hide the hell that Minny feels walking into CenturyLink Field.  Pete Carroll at his rah-rah best should eke out another home win.
• We both have Tampa Bay to travel to Oakland and knock off the Raiders.  This one may be all about the pass rush.  Josh Freeman, the Tampa QB, seems to really be gaining confidence as he torches bad secondaries for big yards, and Oakland is near the bottom of the league in sacking the QB.  I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Oakland led late and gave up the pussy to Freeman in the final minute.
• The Steelers-Giants pick is easy to me:  Pittsburgh couldn't use the hotel they had reserved in New York thanks to SuperMegaStorm Sandy, so they're flying to the game on Sunday morning, then playing Sunday afternoon.  There's not a lot of precedent for old veterans flying to a city and playing an NFL game.  But I gotta think that's not going to go well.  I mean, flying on gameday and playing against the champs??  That seems insurmountable to me.  But now that I went on and on about it, Jason will win this pick.
• That must be a lot of money going on the Cowboys to make the undefeated Falcons only a 3½-point home fav.  But we'll back Atlanta anyway.  Should be no coming out flat on a national-TV stage for the Dirty Birds, plus the other team is employing Tony Romo as QB.  Even if he plays great because he's going to have to carry the team since they are lacking healthy RBs, he'll still find a way to lose.

And Monday, we both have the Saints knocking off the woebegone Eagles.  Easy pick for me--I can't trust Michael Vick.  I have to go against Philadelphia  until further notice.  I even cut him from my fantasy team.  He's having his own Crisis of Confidence, but he should be beyond that at his age.  Drew Brees and the Saints should make Juan Castillo getting fired a couple of weeks back a good thing for Juan, because this particular beatdown won't occur on his watch.