Honors and Dishonors 2011

Now that another season (full of victory) is complete, it's time to hand out some hardware.

• MVP - Calvin Johnson, WR Detroit. Sure, it was the year of the quarterback, but somehow lost in the shuffle was one of the best seasons ever produced by a wide receiver. Johnson went for 80+ yards receiving TWELVE times, started the season with 9 touchdowns in his first five games, and finished the season with 560 yards over his final three games. Megatron, indeed. Runner up: Peyton Manning. Name another team that could lose its starting QB and turn to total shit?
• LVP (Least Valuable Player) - John Beck, QB Washington - His numbers looked fairly mediocre on the surface, but Beck took over a 3-1 Redskins team and left them 3-5 after his four starts. More blame here could be placed on the shoulders of Mike Shanahan, who OutShananhan'd himself once again, just as he did when he benched a 7-2 Jake Plummer for Jay Cutler, and promptly missed the playoffs.
• Prognostication of the Year - July 28, 2001, I wrote a piece about the lose/lose scenario of the Kevin Kolb trade, and doomed the "Dream Team."
• Worst Prognostication of the Year - That the Colts would man up without Peyton Manning and win the AFC South. It's too late to clean up all the posts mentioning that at this point.
• Quote of the Year - Dre: "Fuck you, faggot Ravens." Dre had some serious animosity towards Joe Flacco, Ray-Ray, and the maddeningly inconsistent Ravens.
• Play of the Year - Kevin Walter's Touchdown, Saints vs. Texans, 9/25/11
• Worst Play of the Year - Matt Ryan fumble, Falcons vs. Bears, 9/11/11. Falcons fans (like me) were having Micheal Vick flashbacks. Ryan, trying to avoid a sack, literally laid the ball on the turf for Brian Urlacher to pick up and carry into the endzone.
• Rookie of the Year - AJ Green, WR Cincinnati - Cam Newton was the obvious choice, but I'm going with the guy who was the only guy on the Bengals offense. Quick, name another impact skill position player on that offense! The combo of Andy Dalton to Green was electrifying, and the Bengals went as that combo went, which was all the way to the playoffs, and a quick exit in Houston. But really, who had the BENGALS making the playoffs at all? Runner up: Von Miller, LB Denver - he's a fucking beast!
• Worst Rookie of the Year - Blaine Gabbert, QB Jacksonville - Jags fans: you're lucky most of your games are blackouts!
• Awesome Story of the Year - Sam Hurd, Scarface! No, it wasn't Tim Tebow.
• The 2012 Houston Texans Memorial Chic Preseason Pick to Make the Playoffs will be - The Houston Texans, of course. I mean, c'mon, they're LOADED! All their players are coming back from injury, they'll be UNSTOPPABLE!!!! Only the Texans could win their own award AFTER making the playoffs.
• It Feels Like It Was Years Ago But It Happened This Season - Donovan McNabb starting the year as the Vikings QB.

Calls I was proud of :

• The Jets will never win anything with Mark Sanchez
• Bear Whispering
• Backing the Broncos into the playoffs
• Riding the Giants into the playoffs

Calls I regret :

• Sticking with the Colts way too long, and then jumping off when they started covering the number
• Riding the Giants into the playoffs and then jumping off them in the NFC Championship, almost cost me the season
• That 2-12-2 I put up in Week 2. I'm beyond amazed I squeaked out a season over .500

Super Bowl XLVI What I Learned

Amidst all of the "what-ifs" my fragile little brain conjured up as I contemplated losing yet another Super Bowl pick to Jason--what if the New York Giants lost in Week 17 and missed the playoffs, what if that first Steve Weatherford punt bounced forward into the end zone instead of backwards, what if Tom Brady saw a receiver within 30 yards of where he flung the ball on his first throw of the game, what if Rob Gronkowski wasn't a fucking cripple on the biggest day of his career, what if coaches teach defenders to go strip the football from RBs trying to score in the 4th quarter instead of conceding the score and opening up a lane like they're cashiers at Wal-Mart--I did learn one thing:  I, and many other people, need to quit looking at Eli Manning and seeing Peyton's younger brother, because Eli Manning threw the ball all game as if he were the greatest player in the NFL.  He thinks he's elite, he thinks he's damn good at this, and fuck it all if he isn't correct.  What looking at Eli as Peyton's little sibling did was make me scared shitless on Super Bowl Sunday to pick the #1 overall draft pick in 2004 over a 6th-round system QB.  And that's absolutely pitiful on my part.  I'm not talking about the pick between me and Jason, because he had the Giants anyway.  I'm talking about how I talked myself into thinking that Tom Brady and the New England Patriots were destined to win this game, after I blogged all season long about how the Pats can't win the Super Bowl because their defense was too awful.  I refused to take Eli for what he was and analyze the game on his merits.  I honestly think that I psyched myself out of considering the Giants because I couldn't take Peyton's little bro to go 2-0 against the vaunted Patriot Way.  Well, he's 2-0, and he led game-winning comeback drives to win both games.  The only thing he didn't do is complete every pass.  The game itself had key moments throughout, but the one-sentence breakdown from me goes like this:  NE, thanks to their best weapon being ineffective, couldn't build a big enough lead to shield themselves from the inevitable Eli Manning Comeback.  That's it.  The moment Brady had yet another pass dropped to end a drive and force a punt with the Pats up by only two points, Tom, Gisele, and I knew that the game was over.  NE had overcome the safety to start things off, they overcame the G-Men storming through the o-line and disrupting Brady even with shorter pass routes, they overcame Gronkowski playing the role of decoy, and they had the spread covered, leading 17-9 at one point.  And if they were playing a QB other than Eli, they may have ran off with the win and the cover.  Oops, I just added another "what-if" to my collection.  Oh hell, I'll just end it here.  Congrats to Jason, his wife, his unborn daughter, the Giants, and everyone bright enough to overlook the Little Brother Factor and pick the better QB and better team to win.  I'm still flabbergasted that a team that was 7-7 and lost twice to the clown college that is the Washington Redskins just won the Super Bowl, but hey, I've always said that the regular season is nothing more than a seeding procedure for the playoff tournament, which is the only thing that really matters.  Oh, one more:  What if the Giants don't take Chase Blackburn away from being a substitute teacher and drag him on to the team?  Maybe Gronk can catch that long Brady throw instead of having it picked off by a linebacker 50 yards downfield?  Eh, who knows.  Anyway, we'll be back here at IMLD with our March Madness brackets, which serve only to give us a chance to document how much we hate Duke.  See you then!

Super Bowl ATS Recap: Follow the Money

There's two ways to interpret the term "follow the money." For starters, it could be the heavy amount of green gamblers were putting on the underdog Giants this past week, or if you're me, the money that Dre bet on the Patriots to win the game and cover the number. Dre wouldn't tell me prior to my pick which team he'd placed a friendly wager with, knowing full well that I'd be a shoo-in to take the opposite, but it worked out OK since I'd had the G-Men the entire time as long as the line stayed NE by 3 or more.

A funny thing, that line. If it had dipped to 2½ by Saturday night, you'd be looking at Dre being 2011 IMLD Champ, but since it didn't, the title stays with me. I previously wrote of my distaste for this matchup, and the game itself didn't do much to dispel my hatred. Sure, there were a few tense moments in the 4th quarter, but a game that looked so explosive and engaging on paper never materialized into much.

I'll break down some key factors in the Giants 21-17 win.

• The "Goat" - Revisionist historians took less than 24 hours to peg Wes Welker as the goat, some going so far as to say that Welker has to go. This is utter lunacy. This would all be great to people who didn't watch the game and were just reading about it, but there's one tiny missing detail: it's the fucking Super Bowl, EVERYONE watches it! Tom Brady plain sucked in the 4th quarter. He missed on not just the Welker throw (and Welker was completely uncovered on the play), but also on two deep crosses to Deion Branch (both thrown behind Branch) and on a scramble and heave deep to Rob Gronkowski (which was intercepted by Chase Blackburn). Those are bad throws just off the top of my head, and ALL occured during the late, critical moments of the game. Not just A game, the biggest game, and Tom Brady came up small.
• The "MVP" - I guess it had to go to Manning? He did throw for 296 mostly empty yards, a TD, and more importantly no interceptions. It was a nice game, and in a snooze fest like this game, it seemed good enough. It might not be sexy, but in an unsexy game, sometimes you have to think outside the box....my MVP would have been Steve Weatherford. That's right, the goddamned punter. He barely beats out Mario Manningham, who suddenly became the go-to receiver in the 4th quarter (a former Dre X-factor). Here's the book on Weatherford: he punted 4 times, with three of them pinning the Pats inside their 10 yard line, and the other just barely escaping a waiting Giant defender at the goal line for a touchback. The first of these punts set the tone as the Giants forced Brady into a hurried throw to nobody from his own end zone, and viola! safety. The final punt of the day came in the 4th with the Giants trailing 17-15. Starting from their own 8, the Pats needed 11 plays to barely cross mid-field and had to punt after Bradys misfires to Welker and Branch. Want an impact player? I hope Weatherford got a game ball.
• The "Talent" - It has nothing to do with the game, but WOW was halftime weak...again. I sure felt old, since Madonna was the only person on stage I knew. I'd heard of some of the others in passing, but needed assistance from the group I was watching the game with to even know that the other acts up there with Madonna were anything other than extras. Sadly, I missed the middle finger from M.I.A., since there's so much of a ruckus being made about it. I'm guessing she'll be MIA from the Super Bowl for...oh, the rest of her life. As for Madonna, she sure doesn't look 53, but boy did she move like a 53-year old woman in hooker boots. Her moves looked robotic and something just seemed off with her performance, but I give her a passing grade since it looked like she was just having so much damn fun.
• The Over/Under - Dre was all over this game being a barn burner, and well, we were treated to one of the lowest scoring Super Bowls of the last 20 years. The previous lowest: you guessed it, the last time the Giants and Pats met after the 2007 season. Since 1990, there have been four Super Bowls with point totals of 38 or less. Three of them involve these very Belichick/Brady Pats, while the other was the worst Super Bowl of my lifetime (Steelers/Seahawks). Moral of the story: take the under if the Pats are in the Super Bowl next year!

So for the second year in a row here at IMLD, I took a narrow lead into Super Bowl Sunday, and came up with the winning pick. I could have saved myself from all the drama with just one win during Championship Sunday, but all I needed to do was win 1 of the last 3 to take the title, and I did just that. In the end, building up the big regular season lead saved me, as Dre bested me straight up and on points in the playoffs.

Now begins the 2012 offseason, which will be a real one this time around with none of the lockout nonsense that marred 2011. Dre will be handling the Hall of Infamy inductions this year, and I'll be checking in shortly with my own season recap complete with awards in many different categories. See you all (the 4 or 5 of you who read this) soon!

Super Duper Bowl XLVI

For the second year in a row, it's not just a Super Bowl.  It's going to decide the season picks title between Jason and me, so it's a Super Duper Bowl!  I'm pumped up for the game, unlike my partner.  Priorities make you feel differently about things, so the only guess I can take as to why Jason has the blahs for this matchup is, he does have a little one due at the end of this month.  Makes a football game seem a little less important.  But make no mistake, we'll be watching when the ball is kicked off.  Now, we know that I have to pick the opposite of Jason no matter what, so I was prepared to make a case for either team based on who I had to take.  But, even before I knew Jason's pick for sure, I put money on one of the teams, which guarantees that they will lose, of course.  But the point is, I have a definitive opinion on this game, and I was afraid of Jason taking my team and making me split my rooting interests.  He didn't.

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

NE (15-3)

3

NYG (12-7)

NE

NY

New York Giants vs. New England

I didn't go all-out with my bet, only $20 with my aunt's husband.  But I had a chance to deny his offer, if only I would agree with him that the Giants are the pick.  But I didn't agree.  I will not pretend that I am in love with the Patriots winning this Super Bowl, but in these two weeks, I have talked myself into liking them.  My main reason is that, in the face of "experts" claiming that Tom Brady and Bill Belichick aren't interested in revenge for Super Bowl XLII, I have decided that these two ultra-competitive personalities are indeed interested in revenge for a perfect season and immortality ruined.  I really don't think it's much of a stretch to imagine Tom and Bill sipping brews every day after practice these last two weeks and sharing the pain of what happened the last time they were on the verge of a Super Bowl championship.  Add to that a host of other factors that one can read which way one chooses.  I think that Commissioner Roger Goodell's dream of NFL football today is coming true in this Super Bowl, and that helps NE.  In Goodell's world, defense is a minor distraction punishable by personal fouls if you should happen to hit the QB hard enough that his head snaps back, even if you don't come anywhere near his head.  Who would be surprised if the Giants get to Brady early in the game and knock him to the Lucas Oil Stadium turf, only to watch a yellow cloth fly into the air for no apparent reason?  But in an attempt to not even let Terrific Tom get touched, I think that the Pats have revamped their offense since Super Bowl XLII specifically because of what happened in that game.  Remember, that offense set records, destroyed teams, took it to the house at will--but it was predicated on Randy Moss getting downfield and doing what he did best, which is make plays on the ball no matter how far it was thrown.  But in waiting for his routes to develop, Brady got mauled by the G-Men up front, and that kept New England from putting up an insurmountable lead.  Then Eli-to-Tyree happened, and Plaxico happened, and the lead was, er, surmounted.  The longest route the Patriots have these days is, Brady to Gronk 15 yards downfield, and watch Gronk shove people aside and stomp into the end zone.  They broke out a long bomb to Chad Johnson in Denver because, well, it's Denver.  They broke out a long bomb to Deion Branch in the playoffs because, again, it's Denver.  And Brady didn't fare well throwing the long ball versus Baltimore.  So I feel that New York was the team that made New England develop an unparalleled short passing attack, and here they are, in Brady's biggest rival's city, against Brady's biggest rival's little brother, with another chance to knock off the team that ended his perfect season on the biggest stage.  And I have to go with Brady in this circumstance.  I think it will be close because in no way does the New England defense make me believe that they can stop Eli Manning and the Giants from answering the Pats at every turn.  And I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if it ended in a 3-point final, which would fuck me.  But I told Jason two weeks ago, when Patriots-Giants first became known, that I guarantee that New England would be a 5 to 7-point fav.  And if I believe that NE should be at least 5 points better than NYG, then I should go with that original instinct and pick NE by at least 5 points.  Here are my factors in favor of New England:

1. NOT the same team as the squad that got busted in the fucking mouth by the Giants four years ago
2. ESPN correspondent Greg Cosell pointed out on the Football Today podcast that TE chips could be huge--if Gronkowski and Hernandez can slow down the Giants edge rushers on their way to their routes, that will give Brady more time than he had four years ago
3. EVERYONE's picking the Giants, which has to serve as some more motivation for the legendary thin-skinned Belichick and Brady

And some factors in favor of the New York Giants:

1. Greg Cosell also pointed out that in the Giants' Week 9 win at New England, they didn't even have RB Ahmad Bradshaw or WR Hakeem Nicks
2. EVERYONE's picking the Giants, which has to serve as a confidence boost for a team that was one game away from missing the playoffs, just as the Packers were last year
3. All the attention surrounding Peyton Manning these last two weeks could shatter the fragile ego of a younger brother who has always been in Peyton's shadow, but I actually think Eli's ego is not fragile at all, and he may have an all-time game in his effort to establish himself as elite

So how did Jason arrive at picking Jet Blue?  Simple--he called it immediately after the conference title games.  Knowing that he'd have to pick the Super Bowl to win the season, he texted me minutes after the Giants kicked the FG to beat the 49ers that if the spread was under 3, he'd take the Pats, and if it was over 3, he'd take the G-Men.  That's when I promised him that NE would be a 5 to 7-point favorite.  I thought people would recognize that today's NFL is geared towards a team like the Pats winning it all because they focus completely on how better to execute their offense.  But folks have been so one-sided towards the Giants that, frankly, I'm shocked.  As I pointed out in my conference title game recap, it's not like New York is bringing in the world's greatest defense themselves.  I still fully believe in today being a shootout, an offensive showcase where defense is an afterthought and the scoreboard will be in danger of burning out.  Jason compared the Pats to the other team with a great offense and shitty defense, the Packers, and he points out that at least the Pack could stretch the field with their receivers.  He sees the game as also a back-and-forth contest, and he adds that NY better not spend one second trying to establish the run.  This is the Super Bowl, not a regular-season contest where you are trying to set up the rest of the league for when you play them later on.  You have to pull out all stops right damn now.  I will add that neither team defends the run particularly well either, so don't worry, whenever the Giants or Patriots want to sprinkle in a rush play, it will also be successful.  And finally, I'll point out that with all the focus on how NYG will get after Brady, keep an eye on whether the Giants can pass protect well enough.  Eli got his ass kicked against the Niners.  The Giants averaged 3 sacks per game this season, but the Pats were right there at 2.7.  Granted, that was mostly with DE Andre Carter, who's injured now, but they still have Mark Anderson and Vince Wilfork up front to push the pocket and make Eli move his feet, not to mention Jason's favorite LB, Rob Ninkovich.  And the Giants take much more time for their routes to develop.  Our X-factors:  Mine, and I hate to be so obvious, is Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski.  If he's not 100%, I'm in deep shit.  That's the definition of an X-factor.  If he doesn't do what he's supposed to do, it will affect the entire game.  And if Gronk can't get off the line of scrimmage and get downfield the way he had all season, it makes NE much, much less potent.  He and Aaron Hernandez have to take advantage of the Giants having the worst LB coverage in the league.  Ten hours of pre-game surrounding NYG LB and cancer patient Mark Herzlich is cute, but when the whistle blows, Gronkowski has to exploit him and make him wish that he was back in the hospital.  Even if he doesn't catch 10 balls, he's gotta show the threat of being the player he was to make the Giants respect him and open up the rest of the offense for the Pats.  Jason has an X-factor for each team.  For his pick, the Giants, it's DE Jason Pierre-Paul.  He wasn't there four years ago, so he's yet another body that needs to wreak havoc in the backfield and make Brady uncomfortable for the G-Men to have a chance.  For the Patriots, it's WR Deion Branch.  Jay envisions the Pats going back to a familiar weapon, and Branch has a history of coming through in the Super Bowl, winning an MVP in 2005 after catching 11 balls.

Oh, one last wish from me to Coach Belichick:  Please, Mr. Genius, PLEASE no sending WR Julian Edelman out in pass coverage!  If I see him lined up across from Victor Cruz in the slot, I'm pulling a Don Cornelius and busting a cap in my mouth.

My Pick: New England 44-38

It's Official: I HATE This Super Bowl

I love football. Absolutely love it. For two weeks I've tried to get excited about this game. I've talked to people about it, bounced ideas off people about it, listened to all the talking heads and read tons of articles. No matter how hard I try, I just can't escape it: this Super Bowl doesn't compel me in the slightest.

Here's why:

• The Teams - I picked the Pats on the AFC side and went with San Fran in the NFC, so to make it clear, I'm not just sore about losing my picks here, but I HATE this matchup. It really has nothing to do with the teams that made it, either. This is all about the way that the Patriots and Giants made it to the big game. In a nutshell, they both backed in because their opponents shit the bed in their respective championship games. Try to talk about the AFC or NFC title games without using these names: Lee Evans, Billy Cundiff, and Kyle Williams. Go ahead. Hell, make a game of it, it might be fun. Let's be real: the Pats and Giants got lucky. Not just one team, BOTH teams, and that's a shitty matchup in my book.
• The "Storylines" - We've had to live with manufactured storylines before big games for years now. This years are the worst. Rob Gronkowski's ankle? Really? Tom Brady's legacy? Seriously? Peyton Manning stealing the spotlight from Eli? OK, that happened a little, but again, it has nothing to do with the game itself. That, in itself, shows you how awful the story threads are here. The only story to me that mattered, the Patriots looking to avenge their "Perfect" season loss to the Giants in the Super Bowl, has taken to the back burner.
• The Cities - It's Boston vs. New York. This is the most watered down city rivarly in sports, thanks to Yanks/Sawks garbage we're fed 19 times a year during baseball season. Sure, it's a petty gripe, but just another reason I HATE this game.
• The Commercials - There's entire network programming devoted to Super Bowl commercials. Think about that for a minute. Twenty minutes of every hour is commercials anyways, and you're sitting through the other forty....of commercials. If you watched any of that dreck in the lead up to tomorrow night...I pity you.
• The "Underdog" - Quick, which team is it? The money line says it's the Giants, but all the "experts" and the money itself is on the Dog. So really, who's the favorite again?
• The "Legacy" - Ugh. Tom Brady will already be one of the best QB's of all time, even if the Pats lose this game, OK? The Pats haven't rolled anyone up in a Super Bowl yet, but Brady has been as solid as they come, and it took a miracle helmet catch to beat him the last time, so give up the legacy crap. People wrongly call Elway the greatest ever, the guy who couldn't win shit until the Broncos stumbled onto a running back during a VERY narrow window of Hall of Fame type production. People want to remember things differently and gloss over details after the fact. Nothing can tarnish Bradys three Super Bowl wins, even if it's two Super Bowl losses. Hell, even Jim Kelly is in the Hall of Fame.

So I'll be watching and hoping for a great game. The other part of me will be rooting for my pick to come through so I don't have to listen to Dre about how he "won" the season, which I could actually live with, since I've "won" seasons this way many more times than he has. Hell, I could even accuse him of stealing my move. Again, I think this is still payback for the "Garbage Time" TD call I made in Pats/Eagles. Karma can be cruel.

In all seriousness, and I don't have the numbers here to back me up, but its very rare that seasons between me and Dre DON'T come down to the Super Bowl. It has a way of always being close, and this year is no different. Now I gotta get back to watching that line deviate between 2½ and 3. Can ½ a point matter you ask? On this pick, it most certainly will....