2012 Week 8: What I Learned

Life interrupted my routine, and I didn't get a chance to watch the highlights in depth like I usually do.  So here's what I learned from the games that I watched and the handful of highlights that I saw:  Green Bay's defense was as much at fault for not covering against Jacksonville as Aaron Rodgers and the offense.  The Jets blow.  The Chargers may blow as hard as the Jets.  Tennessee actually found a pass rush and neutralized Andrew Luck for the most part, but they still found a way to lose.  I don't know what happened to the Rams after they scored the first TD of their game against New England.  The Eagles...uh, wow.  I forgot to never have supreme confidence in the Bears so long as they have that offensive line.  The Lions just love to rally late.  Great showing by the veteran Pittsburgh defenders to withstand the challenge of RGIII; a lot of dropped Washington passes made things easier, but the Steelers made most of those drops happen with tight coverage.  Yeah, that Brady Quinn thing didn't work out for the Chiefs, who still haven't led in regulation this season, and head coach Romeo Crennel didn't know why Jamaal Charles ran only four times?!?  Say what?!  Tony Romo's interceptions beget more Giants pass rush against the Cowboys, which beget more INTs, etc., and still Dallas lost by Dez Bryant's fingernail, which shows why Dallas is still dangerous despite being overrated.  That Saints defense is so bad, Peyton Manning hardly audibled en route to a great night.  And Arizona?  We may have our first FedEx Mail-It-In™ Team of 2012.

Week 8 Records--Dre 8-6, .571; Jay 7-7, .500
YTD Records--Dre 60-55-3, .522; Jay 58-57-3, .504

Week 8 ATS Recap: The Brown Fever

Gonna change things up a little here in the recap segment after taking last week off.

Picks We Both Won (5)

• Browns (+3) 7, Chargers 6 - Brown Fever indeed. It was enough to cause the painful, flaming shits, this picking the Browns week after week business. But, oh my god, was that an awful game. Trent Richardson scored the only TD early on, and the Brownies hung on for life the rest of the way. After the Monday Night Meltdown two weeks back, this could not have been the way the Chargers wanted to respond.
• Lions (-1) 28, Seahawks 24 - This was a surprisingly even contest, and both teams are who we thought they were. The Seahawks ran the ball well and got just enough from Russell Wilson, while the Lions flung the rock all over the place, and Titus Young seems to be the beneficiary of all the Megatron triple teams.
• Raiders (+1) 26, Chiefs 16 - When Brady Quinn and Matt Cassell are under center, you need more than 4 yards from Jamaal Charles. In fact, Charles was the sixth leading rusher in the game for the Chiefs, even behind Quinn, who was KTFO'd in the first quarter.
• Broncos (-6) 34, Saints 14 - The Peyton Manning Experiment in Denver is starting to look like a stunning success. As long as the Broncos can keep 18 healthy, they look poised to make a serious postseason run. The Saints, meanwhile, appear to be running as hard as they can FROM the postseason. It looks like the best the Saints can be this season is a spoiler.
• Niners (-7) 24, Cardinals 3 - Did I see correctly some stat that the Cardinals have gone something like 48 games without a 300 yard passer? That's insane. In this state of the NFL, where guys throw for 400 like it's nothing, the Cards have gone THREE YEARS without a 300 yard passer. John Skelton put up a fight with 290 against the Niners, but most of it was in garbage time. Might be time for Arizona to see what they have on that bench.

Picks We Both Lost (4)

• Buccaneers (+5½) 36, Vikings 17 - I'm kicking myself for this one. I've been talking for a while now about my lack of faith in the Vikings, even going so far to say they'll still wind up the last place team in the NFC North. So here's my chance to prove it, and I pick the Vikes to cover against an improving Bucs squad. Can't blame anyone but myself here.
• Packers 24, Jaguars (+14½) 15 - It looked late like the Packers would find a way to out and out lose this one, but they toughed out a win against a surprisingly game Jags squad. If not for a crazy number of drops, the Jags may have won. Blaine Gabbert blows, but his wideouts aren't doing him any favors.
• Patriots (-7) 45, Rams 7 - Was that "London Balling?" It's all I got for that one. I'll be here all the week.
• Falcons (+3) 30, Eagles 17 - So much for that Andy Reid is perfect after the bye nonsense. Week by week, this Falcons team impresses me a little bit more. That explosive offense even looked good on grass and in the rain. The Eagles offense mounted a few charges, but when the only move a team with offensive troubles makes is to fire the DEFENSIVE coordinator, there's much bigger problems at hand.

Picks Dre Won Head to Head (3)

• Colts (+3½) 19, Titans 13 (OT) - The Colts look poised for a 7 or 8 win season, which by all measurements, will be a success after the Brown Fever fest they went through in 2011.
• Steelers (-4) 27, Redskins 12 - A hunt should be commenced immediately by the Department of Homeland Security to track down all game film, cell phone pictures, DVR recordings, and other pictures, descriptions, and accounts so that nobody has to see those Pittsburgh throwback (more like throwup) abominations EVER AGAIN. The Redskins probably lost because they couldn't stop laughing.
• Giants (-1) 29, Cowboys 24 - This is why I love the NFL. The difference between losing a game in the picks, or in reality, literally came down to a dudes fingertips touching the end line on a potential game winning score. The Cowboys had no business even being in a position to win the game after the Turnover Extravaganza put on by the Dallas offense. This is as much an idictment of the Giants, who I'm still not sold on. That whole NFC East reeks.

Picks I Won Head to Head (2)

• Dolphins (+1) 30, Jets 9 - I've stated in the past that you only need to see how many passing attempts Mark Sanchez has for a game to know the end result. The higher the attempts, the worse the Jet loss. Number of dropbacks for Sanchez against Miami? 58 (54 pass attempts and 4 sacks)
• Bears 23, Panthers (+7½) 22 - Cam Newton channeled his inner Neil O'Donnell on a straight up hookup with Bears DB Tim Jennings that led to the Bears overcoming a 12 point deficit in a matter of 8 seconds. Carolina needed to be in clock killing mode in a hostile environment and instead took a heartbreaking, and most likely season-ending, loss at Chicago.

2012 Week #8

Fucking Thursday night bullshit got me in a mood again.  You know, it's fitting that I'm 0-2 on Thursday nights since I declared no more road teams ATS on Thursday nights.  Makes perfect sense.  Time to turn on the funk channel on Pandora as I type up this week's picks.  Need to change it up a bit.

Fav	Spread	Dog			Dre	Jay
	Thu. Nite
MIN (5-2)	5½	TB (2-4)	TB 36-17		Min	Min
	Sunday
GB (4-3)	14½	Jack (1-5)			GB	GB
NYJ (3-4)	1	Mia (3-3)			NY	Mia
SD (3-3)	3	CLE (1-6)			Cle	Cle
TENN (3-4)	3½	Ind (3-3)			Ind	Tenn
NE (4-3)	7	StL (3-4)		London	StL	StL
PHI (3-3)	3	Atl (6-0)			Phi	Phi
CHI (5-1)	7½	Car (1-5)			Chi	Car
DET (2-4)	1	Sea (4-3)			Det	Det
PIT (3-3)	4	Wash (3-4)			Pit	Wash
KC (1-5)	1	Oak (2-4)			Oak	Oak
NYG (5-2)	1	DAL (3-3)			NY	Dal
	Sun. Nite
DEN (3-3)	6	NO (2-4)			Den	Den
	Mon. Nite
SF (5-2)	7	ARIZ (4-3)			SF	SF

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• We start in Green Bay this week, where one of the preseason picks for best team, the Packers, host one of the picks for worst team, the Jaguars.  No reason to see things differently here, despite Green Bay's early struggles.  Jason's observation of the mammoth 14½-point spread:  It's not enough.  We like Green Bay squoosh.  It's not just the Aaron Rodgers resurgence, it's a possible advantage on the ground now that Maurice Jones-Drew is MIA for the Jags.
• The Jets went to South Beach and survived the Dolphins in OT earlier this season despite not pulverizing Reggie Bush as they promised in their usual loudmouth manner.  Now they host Miami and Bush, and while I don't see them putting him out of the game this time either, I can see them outlasting the Fish again.  Every several weeks or so, Mark Sanchez shows flashes of why the Jets picked him so high, and this may be one of those weeks, with Miami missing a starter at CB, Richard Marshall.  Jay can't stand the thought of picking the Jets more than once a blue moon.
• We both hesitated before blurting out Cleveland over San Diego.  It's more an indictment of Norv Turner and the hapless Chargers than an endorsement of the Cleveland Browns.  We both got Brown Fever for one more week despite getting screwed by them last week vs. the Colts.  Jason compared it to battered wife syndrome, where we're back for more punishment despite knowing it's not good for us.  Brown Fever.  Hmmm, sounds like something you pick up after one too many runs for the border.
• I'm believing in those Colts this week at the Titans because Andrew Luck hasn't shown me a reason to not back him when he gets a crack at one of the worst defenses in the league.  And Tennessee is one of the worst.  That game with Buffalo last week was a joke.  Neither defense was the least bit interested in stopping the other team, until Buffalo's last possession, when the Titans finally decided to mount a stand and fuck me out of another pick.  Well, I'm glad to side with Luck in another high-scoring shootout situation.  Jason will side with Chris Johnson in another situation where he gets to run against a terrible rush defense.  Yes, it worked wonderfully for CJ200 last week.  Let's see him do that again.
• Overseas, we've known that the Patriots were going to be a big favorite against the Rams ever since we knew the matchup.  But now that the game's here and we see the 7-point line, we're going to back the underdogs here.  New England's not playing very sharp for Jason's tastes, and they are 0-2 ATS the last two weeks.  I'm taking the Rams with the number because that D-line is the type that hampers Tom Brady from having monster games.  They like to ignore RBs and rush straight for the QB and make things uncomfortable in the pocket.  Neither of us have the nuts to take St. Louis to win, however.
• Speaking of nuts, an untrustworthy Michael Vick, a damn near already fired Andy Reid, and a disappointing Eagles squad are favored against the undefeated Falcons?  That's crazy!  How can the oddsmakers do that?  It's so disrespectful of Atlanta's achievements, it's incredible, it's...yeah, we're both taking Philly.  We've been toasted too many fucking times over the years by an Andy Reid team coming off the bye and walloping their opponent.  Yes, Atlanta's coming off their bye as well, but admit it, it's got to be more nerve-wracking to be the Falcons sitting on that 6-0 record and going into that environment at the Linc than to be the Eagles, who are used to pressure and scrutiny.  Plus, Jason says he still doesn't want any part of Matty Ice in a big game.
• The hook may be huge in the Panthers-Bears tilt.  If Cam Newton can get it together, Carolina doesn't have to win to cover the spread, just stay within a TD.  Jason will play those odds.  I won't because I don't see Cam getting it together.  Jay tried to cite Cam lighting up the feared Chicago defense last season, and the thing about that is, Cam lit up everybody last year.  Something happened, and this ain't last year, it's the year of the soap opera Cam's Crisis of Confidence, and I don't see the soap opera ending this Sunday against one of the league's hottest teams.
• China Doll's getting some flak for not keeping up with the pace from last year's stellar season.  Again, this is a different year.  Actually, Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions are 2nd in passing yards per game this year, so he's not horrible, just not as awesome as last season.  They're sure to outthrow Russ Wilson and the Seahawks on Sunday, and Seattle's sure to outrush the pathetic Detroit RB corps, so it's as much of a toss-up as it gets.  I usually side with the better passing team when it's a toss-up like that.  Jason will go with Detroit as well.  Seattle's done some impressive stuff at home, but the rah-rah shit only goes so far when traveling, and the Seahawks are only 1-3 on the road this year.
• Jason's gettin' cute for the Redskins-Steelers matchup.  He likes Pittsburgh to win but Washington to cover that thin 4-point spread.  He's really hoping for a FG battle.  I can't blame anyone for liking Washington here.  They're a runaway train on offense behind Robert Griffin III, and the Steelers have been anything but.  However, they showed me something last week against Cincinnati.  Offensive coordinator Todd Haley seemed to let Ben Roethlisberger open up the passing attack early to set up the run late, just like Pittsburgh used to do with Big Ben.  Methinks they may be onto something, and the terrible Washington defense will let them experiment and find more ways to succeed.
• Wait, that wasn't a bad dream?  We actually did trust Brady Quinn last week?  What the fuck were we thinking?  And now we get the treat of Interception Santa and Quinn in the same game.  Oh, joy.  We'll go with Santa in honor of Christmas coming soon.  Jason worried about me not throwing out my usual crappy stats.  I have a few still up my sleeve.  I haven't hit full depression yet.  But if I fall below .500 after that great start I had, I may fall into a hole and start making picks with no stats at all, just pulling stuff out of my ass completely.  But here's a stat for y'all:  You can't take the Chiefs to beat INT Santa and the Raiders because Kansas City's secondary has managed a measly 4 interceptions all season!
• In the main event of the afternoon, Dallas attempts to replicate its opening-night shellacking of the Giants, and I'm glad to take New York with no stats cited because Dallas sucks ass against the Giants in that gargantuan new stadium Jerry Jones constructed.  Jason simply says that the Giants are so up and down that it would fit them to violate San Francisco and then nearly lose to the Redskins and get beat again by the Cowboys.  Keep a look out for how effective Dallas and Tony Romo can be throwing the rock with no running threat, as they may be without DeMarco Murray and Felix Jones.
• After two weeks of going head-to-head in prime time, we're in lockstep for these two night games.  On Sunday, Peyton Manning and the Broncos continue their killer early-season sked as they host Drew Brees and the Saints.  We're going with Denver despite the Saints getting hot their last two contests on offense.  That D remains hot garbage.  Who else would let Josh Freeman throw for 400 yards??  Now, the interim coach, Joe Vitt, comes off suspension to replace the interim interim guy, whose name I never learned.  So who does the defensive-minded Vitt get to face his first game?  Peyton and the 4th-rated Denver passing game.  Good luck, pal.
• On Monday, the Cardinals will attempt to stop their freefall (0-3 SU, 0-4 ATS) against still one of the toughest defenses in the NFL, San Francisco, who rebounded nicely off their embarrassing beatdown from the Giants to smother Seattle.  And the 49ers get to go from Russell Wilson to...John Skelton?!?  Show of hands of those who think Skelton is better than Wilson right now.  Yeah, me neither.  We'll go with San Fran to win on the road in a division game and cover a TD spread.  That's a very tall order, but Arizona's no damn good right now.  Here's some more stats so that I can further ruin this pick for us:  SF brings the #2 run game and #1 pass D to Glendale, both averaging 5.9 yards per play.  What can possibly go wrong???

Thu. Nite Buccaneers @ Vikings

Ok, back to the drawing board.  The home team couldn't cover last week in a tight divisional game, so now I'm left to figure out which way to go in the TB-Min battle.  Well, Jason and I are going back to the home team, and probably for the same reason--the Bucs stink on defense.  We all know the day will soon come when Minnesota comes crashing back to Earth, but it shouldn't be tonight as 5½-point favorites.  I'm conceding that Adrian Peterson and his surgically-repaired knee and sore ankle may not dazzle tonight.  But Tampa's allowing 8.5 yards per throw, so whatever AP can't gain, Christian Ponder should pick up throwing to Percy Harvin and Kyle Rudolph.  Jason sees it 31-20, and I concur almost to the number.

My Pick:  Minnesota 31-23

2012 Week 7: What I Learned

I learned that the sack +/- is not a stat to rely on, that it can be just as incapable of prediction as any other stat, and that nothing can get in the way of a shitty two-week run.  If it's gonna happen, it's gonna happen.  There was nothing I could do about it.  I just have to pick myself up and get after it again this week.

Week 7 Records--Dre 3-9-1, .250; Jay 6-6-1, .500
YTD Records--Dre 52-49-3, .515; Jay 51-50-3, .505

2012 Week #7

Fuckin' Thursday night bullshit got me in a bad mood.  Fuck Alex Smith.  Let's do this shit.

Fav	Spread	Dog			Dre	Jay
	Thu. Nite
SF (4-2)	9½	Sea (4-2)	SF 13-6		SF	Sea
	Sunday
NYG (4-2)	6	Wash (3-3)			Wash	Wash
MIN (4-2)	6½	Ariz (4-2)			Min	Ariz
Dal (2-3)	1	CAR (1-4)			Car	Car
NO (1-4)	1	TB (2-3)			TB	NO
GB (3-3)	5	STL (3-3)			GB	GB
HOU (5-1)	7	Bal (5-1)			Bal	Bal
IND (2-3)	1	Cle (1-5)			Cle	Cle
BUF (3-3)	3½	Tenn (2-4)			Buf	Buf
NE (3-3)	10½	NYJ (3-3)			NE	NY
OAK (1-4)	6	Jack (1-4)			Oak	Oak
	Sun. Nite
Pit (2-3)	1	CIN (3-3)			Cin	Pit
	Mon. Nite
CHI (4-1)	6	Det (2-3)			Chi	Det

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

I go against the sack +/- ratio three times this week as it pertains to the point spread.  That's not counting Thursday, when I vetoed it to take the home team even though Seattle's ratio was +5 and San Francisco's was -9.  Shows me.  Anyway, that's seven times out of 10 that I'm rolling with the team with the better ratio of sacks achieved versus sacks given up.  (Two games feature teams with the same ratio.)  Let's see how that works for me.

• We start with a division battle that didn't work so well for the Giants last year.  We both have to take the Redskins to cover the number because the G-Men are so good at coming up short against inferior competition.  In fact, they did so twice to Washington last season.  You remember last season, when the Giants won the Super Bowl.  And lost to the Shanahan Boyz twice.  Jas says RG3 and Washington will win again Sunday because, hey, what the hell.  I'm not going that far, but it would be so Giants to pump the 49ers last week as a big underdog and then come lay a turd this week.  (Sack +/- Wash -1, NYG +9)
• I want to make sure I accurately quote Jason's reaction when I informed him that Minnesota was giving 6½ points to Arizona:  "Huh?!?!?"  So you can see why he felt compelled to take the points.  He can't see giving the Vikings that much rope.  I'll do it because John Skelton is back flinging the rock for the Cardinals, and once he does his one trick, that is, throw deep to Larry Fitzgerald for a TD, then he's through.  And that 7 points will have to hold up, and I think Minnesota can score more than 13.  Not much more, but more.  Sack differential should play a part here in my favor.  (Sack +/- Ariz -9, Min +2)
• We feel eerily the same about the Cowboys-Panthers tilt.  We feel that Dallas is bringing the better team to the park, but because they're weak between the ears, they will lose.  The soap opera that is Cam's Crisis of Confidence got a one-week breather, and we hope that will result in Cam Newton playing much better ball than he has so far this year.  Against the Dallas pass defense, he can get the job done.  More fun with stats:  Dallas may fool some by possessing the #1 rank in pass yards allowed per game, but they're giving up 7.6 yards per throw, which means when teams get a chance to throw on them, they hit the big plays.  And Cam and the Panthers should be desperately looking for nothing but the big play.  (Sack +/- Dal +1, Car +1)
• Spoiler alert:  Jason's going to make it 4-for-4 taking road teams to cover spreads in division battles, so count this as #2.  He believes that the Saints and Drew Brees, who he was shocked to learn still has the #1 pass offense this year despite being 1-4, got it together against the Chargers a couple of weeks ago and are now poised to roll, maybe even securing an 8-8 record by the time the season ends.  Not so fast, my friend.  I'm taking the Buccaneers because the Saints and that shitty defense are still 0-4 under the interim interim coach in games not attended by Sean Payton.  (Sack +/- NO -1, TB Even)
• Jason doesn't feel quite as strongly about the Packers in St. Louis as I do.  He only sees a TD win for Green Bay as Aaron Rodgers scrambles and struggles a little against the formidable Rams pass rush.  I say, it was the formidable Houston pass rush that may have helped Rodgers focus and play with more pace and sharpness last Sunday night, and I don't see why the same fear of getting his head bounced on the ground if he doesn't hurry things along versus St. Louis won't push him and the offense again.  Feels like a double-digit drubbing to me.  (Sack +/- GB -2, StL -1)
• We both feel that it's a little ludicrous to bless the Texans with such a big spread against the Ravens just because the Ravens come in really, really beat up.  Isn't it like John Harbaugh and that team to rally in their moment of crisis and kick some ass, or at least lose close?  Jason says Baltimore's gonna kill Houston.  I don't know about that, but everyone burying Baltimore, be careful.  All of those traumatic season-ending injuries occurred on defense.  This is Joe Flacco and the offense's chance to show that they're for real.  The exposed, overrated Texans D should be happy to accommodate them.  (Sack +/- Bal -4, Hou +11)
• Take note of this special occasion because I don't think Jason and I will be both picking the Cleveland Browns very often in the same week.  Maybe not ever.  But we have our reasons.  Jas still admires Cleveland's ability to play tougher than expected, and who can argue that after they torched the Bengals last week.  I like to consider any team against Indianapolis that can run the ball, and a flakked-up Trent Richardson should still be tough enough to barrel through the Colts for about 150 and a low-scoring victory.  (Sack +/- Cle +4, Ind Even)
• We're not the biggest Buffalo Bills fans either, but my God, Tennessee sucks, even after they somehow beat the Steelers a week and a half ago.  Jason, as a fantasy owner of Titans dud RB Chris Johnson, would have the horrible Bills run D to look forward to, if not for the fact that it's still Chris Johnson.  We got Buffalo rather easily here.  I love the sack ratio.  Keep double-teaming Mario Williams, the other Bills are picking up the slack.  (Sack +/- Tenn -3, Buf +8)
• Jay was in pain as he forced himself to take big points and side with the hated New York Jets in Foxborough.  Something about picking Rex Ryan, Total Fraud, and the rest of Gang Green gives him the bloody shits.  And he should be worried, because I, the Jet Whisperer, will take Tom Brady and the Patriots to bitch-slap the Jets all afternoon and evening.  Oh, I heard that Rex, running low on backup RBs, would consider throwing Tim Tebow in the backfield.  You know what?  I've been pimping Tebow as a running back ever since he was drafted.  We know he's not a QB, he proved that last year.  I know the Pats have had a very good run D so far this year, but they're really not strong in their front seven.  Tebow would own them.  He would run for 100 yards this Sunday with no backfield reps during the week.  I really believe that.  Rex won't run him for more than a couple of plays, if that, because Tebow's the backup QB, and you can't run 20 times with your backup QB.  He's not smart enough to run Tebow, and he's gonna lose big again.  (Sack +/- NYJ -2, NE -2)
• This one's my Lock of the Week.  I realize how dumb it may be to back the Oakland Raiders and Interception Santa as a lock, considering how undisciplined and sloppy they can be, but man, I can't imagine the Jaguars flying cross-country into a hostile environment with the league's shittiest QB, Blaine Gabbert, and staying within a touchdown.  All that preseason talk about the improved Blaine Gabbert and how much better the Jacksonville passing attack is going to be?  They're averaging 143 passing yards per game.  143!!  (Sack +/- Jack -12, Oak -6)
• A couple of IMLD memes when the Steelers and Bengals rendezvous on Sunday night:  Usually, when a struggling Cincinnati team takes on a good Pittsburgh squad, Cincinnati comes out on top in the Blake-Pickens Corollary, which shone a light on how hard to predict division matchups could be.  In the 1980s, Cincy would be like 1-11 and have two games left against a 10-2 Pittsburgh squad, and Jeff Blake would throw for 400 yards each game, 160 to Carl Pickens, and the Bengals would win both games.  It doesn't apply here because Pittsburgh isn't especially good and won't be taking Cincinnati lightly, so Jason will go with Pittsburgh.  I'm still taking the Bengals because the Steelers are 0-3 on the road this year, they have no healthy running backs that you've ever heard of, and offensive coordinator Todd Haley is too dumb to let Ben Roethlisberger do what he does best and toss the pigskin around on deep routes to his receivers.  Haley will still try to establish a run game, which is how he got all his RBs hurt to begin with, and by the time Big Ben pops him upside the head to put in a real game plan, the Bengals will have a lead too big to surrender.  (Sack +/- Pit +1, Cin +3)
• As a Bears homer, I can't wait for Monday night.  A yappy, stupid, thuggish Lions team comes to Soldier Field, and I thoroughly feel like Chicago should tame the undisciplined Lions in a zoo-like atmosphere.  Alas, Jason the Bear Whisperer has turned into a Lion Tamer himself, and he will pick Detroit to cover the number.  Another close division rivalry game, he predicts.  I was already saddened by the Bear Whisperer picking against the Bears, which means they're a lock to lose.  Then Jason used the Lion Tamer line on me when I had already written down the "Bears tame Lions in the zoo" gag without telling Jay.  That told us that we've been friends for way too many years, and that it was time to hang up the phone.  (Sack +/- Det +3, Chi +4)

Thu. Nite Seahawks @ 49ers

Instead of stats for this divisional tilt, I'll go with two rules that say why I have to take San Francisco -9 and a hook.  Rule 1 is, of course, no more road teams on Thursday night.  Rule 2 is that I can't take a SF opponent that can't mount an early lead and make Alex Smith play QB from behind, which he does very poorly unless he's playing the New Orleans D.  I don't think Russell Wilson, for all his talent, can make SF play from behind.  Jason and I both see a low-scoring snoozefest, so it's how you feel about Seattle that decides which way you pick.  We both see the Niners posting 20 points.  Jas has the Hawks scoring 13 and therefore covering.  I got them only making it to 9.  Either way, I think the under is the safest play tonight.

My Pick:  San Francisco 20-9

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2012 Week 6: What I Learned

Not a whole hell of a lot, obviously.  I definitely learned a new stat to lean on, since the sack +/- beat both of our asses this week.  The sack +/- predicted the winner straight up at a 9-4 clip, and it went 8-5 ATS.  I'm not going to put all of my hopes and dreams on the stat, but rest assured, the sack +/- will return for another week.  The reason you can't put all your hopes on that stat?  Well, the actual sack count in each game did not correlate at all to who won or covered.  Taking out the two games where both teams had the same number of sacks (Dal-Bal and Cin-Cle), the team with more sacks this week went a stunning 2-9 straight up and 4-7 ATS.  So at least in Week 6 in 2012, it was way better to not sack the QB.  I'll keep my eye on this as the season wears on.  I have very few observations as far as the actual games.  The Cowboys were stupid and badly coached as always, and yet they still almost won.  Philadelphia's turnover problems aren't going away while Michael Vick starts, it seems.  I love Andy Reid's solution to that obvious problem--fire the D-coordinator, that was the issue the whole time.  Uh huh.  I guess I must be The Jet Whisperer since I have been able to pick them in all three of their wins.  But what if I don't wanna be The Jet Whisperer?  New England's soft defense let Seattle get the great comeback win, but don't shortchange the NE offense, which played just as big a part.  I fucked up the Giants-Niners game because I ignored my own rule of picking against San Francisco when they play a good offense that can get a lead and make Alex Smith play from behind.  God, was that ugly.  The prime-time games?  Hall of Fame QB whips out his dong and shows why he's a Hall of Fame QB.  Sunday was Part 1, and Monday was Part 2.  And I'm very thankful for both of them.  And the Thursday game, where the highly favored Steelers coughed it up on the road against the worst team in the league, the Titans?  Well, like I said, I'm fucking done taking road teams on Thursday night.  D-U-N.

Week 6 Records--Dre 5-9, .357; Jay 3-11, .214
YTD Records--Dre 49-40-2, .551; Jay 45-44-2, .506

Week 6 Recap: Humble Pie

And we thought Week 5 was bad.....

This is one of those weeks that's so bad it's even hard to fathom. It took an insane finish to the Monday Night game to save Dre and I from dual 4 win weeks. Instead, Dre was "propelled" to a 5 win week while I got to put up my overdue 3 win week. Amazingly, after a 5 and now a 3 win week, I somehow sit only 4 games behind Dre for the season. Of course, we were flirting with a .600 win percentage all season long, so a "market correction" was due.

There's no point in getting into much detail on all the games, considering how far off the reservation we both were with the majority of our picks, so I will restrict myself to comments where appropriate.

The "Who Cares" Games of the Week:

• Titans 26, Steelers 23 - Both losers
• Buccaneers 38, Chiefs 10 - Both losers
• Dolphins 17, Rams 14 - Both losers
• Bills 19, Cardinals 16 (OT) - Both losers

And now for the rest of the games, in much less detail:

• Falcons 23, Raiders (+9½) 20 - Both losers - Matt Ryan is trying to cement his reputation as one the greatest regular season quarterbacks ever. Take that exactly how it sounds.
• Jets (-3½) 35, Colts 9 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Looks like we get another week of Jet fellating. Oh, joy!
• Lions (+3½) 26, Eagles 23 (OT) - Dre winner, Jason loser - In this pass-happy NFL, it seems that no leads are safe anymore. Teams are coming back from late double digit deficits with alarming regularity. But, in this case, a "market correction" of its own took place, I believe. The Eagles had made turning awful performances into wins an artform, so it was nice to see a little karma drag the Eagles back down to Earth.
• Ravens 31, Cowboys (+3) 29 - Both losers - The Cowboys absolutely dominated yet another game, and still came up short. They passed and ran each for over 200 yards. They held the ball for over FORTY minutes. Thirty first downs. Stunning numbers. Oh, except they gave up big special teams plays with regularity. That seems to be another theme this season. It's hard to win when you give up free touchdowns and great field position. It was a good game to watch, though (this was my Super Bowl Preview, if anyone remembers....I hope you don't).
• Seahawks (+3½) 24, Patriots 23 - Both winners - Not much to say here, just MEAT GRINDER!!!!!!
• Giants (+6½) 26, Niners 3 - Jason winner, Dre loser - You don't rip a teams heart out the way the Giants did in the NFC Championship and expect one game to exorcise all the demons. The Niners must have had that in mind, because they did not look like the team that was rolling up fools all season. This is not a case of the Giants just being that good, its that the G-Men are in the Niners heads.
• Redskins (-1) 38, Vikings 26 - Jason winner, Dre loser - The RG3 76-yard touchdown run has to be epitome of what the Redskins can be. If Griffin has room to operate, that team can look electric. When his head if bouncing off the turf like it did in Atlanta, not so much. Also, the Vikings are living up to my prediction of being this years Buffalo Bills. They'll be in last in the NFC North before long.
• Packers (+3½) 42, Texans 24 - Dre winner, Jason loser - The Texans simply did not look ready for prime time. The Packers knew they were up against the wall, staring 2-4 in the face, and Aaron Rodgers picked a hell of a stage to put on one of his usual All Time games. Rodgers now joins the great Matt Flynn as the only Packer QBs to throw 6 TDs in one game.
• Broncos (-1) 35, Chargers 24 - Dre winner, Jason loser - How many people do you think went to bed at halftime of this game? The Chargers blew a 24-0 halftime lead and saddled me with a 3 win week. Thanks, guys! However, I had to play Aaron Rodgers AND Jordy Nelson in my fantasy league this week, so I was glad for the Peyton Manning-to-Eric Decker hookup that got me a hard fought win. I know none of you care about my fantasy team....I won three fucking picks this week, I needed something to hang my hat on.

2012 Week #6

Jason was so distraught from that upset loss Thursday that he's not available to defend his picks with me over the phone.  So his selections are below with very minimal detail.  That will allow me to try out a stunt in the Thoughts and Observations section.

Fav	Spread	Dog			Dre	Jay
	Thu. Nite
Pit (2-2)	6	TENN (1-4)	Tenn 26-23		Pit	Pit
	Sunday
ATL (5-0)	9½	Oak (1-3)			Atl	Atl
TB (1-3)	4	KC (1-4)			KC	KC
NYJ (2-3)	3½	Ind (2-2)			NY	Ind
Cin (3-2)	1	CLE (0-5)			Cin	Cin
PHI (3-2)	3½	Det (1-3)			Det	Phi
MIA (2-3)	4½	StL (3-2)			Mia	Mia
BAL (4-1)	3	Dal (2-2)			Bal	Bal
ARIZ (4-1)	4	Buf (2-3)			Ariz	Ariz
NE (3-2)	3½	SEA (3-2)			Sea	Sea
SF (4-1)	6½	NYG (3-2)			SF	NY
WASH(2-3)	1	Min (4-1)			Min	Wash
	Sun. Nite
HOU (5-0)	3½	GB (2-3)			GB	Hou
	Mon. Nite
Den (2-3)	1	SD (3-2)			Den	SD

My thoughts and observations will be accompanied by a digit for each team.  Since this is the age of passing and all that jazz, I'm going to see what correlation there is between sacks and wins.  My theory is that if you have to throw to win in today's NFL, then the teams with the better sack differential should win the games because how can you succeed at throwing when you can't protect your thrower or get to the opponent's thrower?  So each team's digit will represent their plus/minus in the sack department, that is, whether they give up more sacks than they allow, or vice versa.  If the number is positive, that means the team so far this year has achieved that many more sacks than they've allowed.  My pick will not match up with the bigger number necessarily; this is only an experiment.

• We start in Atlanta, where Jason said he "changed this pick 5 times while typing it out."  We know his hesitation at believing in the Dirty Birds.  I will not hesitate.  Oakland comes into a dome allowing 411½ yards from scrimmage per game with Interception Santa at the helm.  This is a mismatch.  (Sack +/- Oak -4, Atl +1)
• "Did I just pick Brady Quinn???!!!!??!!!?!?"  Yes, Jay, you did, and all those question marks and exclamations speak for both of us.  For all of the Brady Quinn hate we've had over the years, what he steps into on Sunday is a Kansas City offense with by far the greatest WR he's ever had (Dwayne Bowe, for the retarded), and they're playing by far the worst pass defense in the NFL this season.  Tampa is coughing up 9 yards per throw!  You kinda have to take Quinn with the odds in his favor that much.  I can see Jamaal Charles having a day in the 2nd half as the Bucs D spreads out trying to smother the passing game.  Yes, against Brady Quinn.  Stop snickering.  (Sack +/- KC -1, TB +1)
• Jason will go with the Flavor of the Month, Andrew Luck, and the Colts over Gang Green because, as he puts it, " Instead of LOLcats we should have LOLjets."  They have been a joke, no doubt.  But I think I'm rebelling against the crowning of Luck as the new elite QB, although I think very highly of him.  Does the Chuck Pagano Inspiration continue this week, or was that a one-time deal that magically whirs into action only in the 2nd half??  Indy's running out of running backs, so to win, the Jets only have to stop Luck and Reggie Wayne.  It's not easy, but outdoors, I think it can be done.  Shonn Greene may play a role, too, as New York gets to run on the Colts, which should be to the Jets' advantage.  (Sack +/- Ind +3, NYJ -5)
• I'm amazed at the Cincy-Cleveland line.  Cincinnati lost to Miami last week, not Little Sisters of the Poor, yet they're now only a 1-point fav at a winless Browns outfit that always competes and goes hard, except when they don't.  The Bengals gave up 27 to the Browns in Week 2 and still beat them by 7.  Is Cleveland scoring 27 on Cincy again?  Well, since that game, the Browns have scored 14, 16, and 27, so it's possible.  And the Bengals have surrendered 31, 10, and 17.  So take your chances on the Browns if you like.  We're backing the Bengals.  "Back to Bumslayin," says Jason, and if the Browns aren't bums, I don't know who is.  (Sack +/- Cin +3, Cle +4)
• I said last week that I'm through trusting Michael Vick, and I'm backing it up.  We know how much I can't stand Detroit, but off a bye, they should come after Vick and make some turnovers despite Vick reportedly walking around all week with a football in hand in order to learn how to keep it secure at all times.  That may work with a college sophomore.  Jason will take the Eagles.  "How many special teams TDs can Philly score?" he wonders, referring to the Lions and their lack of coverage on punts and kickoffs.  Hopefully for my sake, they remedied that during their break.  (Sack +/- Det Even, Phi -7)
• We'll go with those aforementioned Dolphins to get to .500 with a win over the Rams, who once again won't have the only decent WR on the roster, Danny Amendola.  His absence ruins an early-season duel of surprisingly prolific Caucasian receivers between himself and Brian Hartline.  Not sure how St. Louis throws without him and on grass.  Love the under here.  (Sack +/- StL Even, Mia +6)
• We're taking the Ravens to beat the Cowboys by at least 3 points.  It should be a close, one-score game, but we're both betting that Dallas finds a way to be on the wrong side of that score.  Baltimore used to really struggle against teams like this, who can strike first with a quick score before the D gets settled and put them behind the 8-ball early.  But with Joe Flacco's emergence, the Ravens shouldn't be afraid of that, at least not at home.  Last week proved that they still have some growing up to do in road games.  Luckily, this one's in the Raven's Nest.  (Sack +/- Dal +1, Bal -4)
• What's the cure for what ails Arizona after that Thursday night beating in St. Louis?  It's the Buffalo Bills!  They are the cure for everyone right now.  How can anyone pick Buffalo the way they've played the last two weeks?  The Bills are toxic right now.  That's your big breakdown of this game.  They'll probably let this nobody at RB for the Cardinals, William Powell, run for 100 yards.  (Sack +/- Buf +5, Ariz -6)
• New England goes cross-country to Seattle in a fascinating style clash.  Jason says "Pats in The Meat Grinder," referring to Qwest Field.  I concur.  Don't know if Jas is taking the Hawks to win, but I can hear him now saying it don't matter, so long as they cover.  I am going with Seattle for the victory.  It's just the kind of game that rah-rah master Pete Carroll can get his squad up for, and you know the crowd will be into it.  This is one where the sacks should matter, as Tom Brady and his line will find it hard to communicate and execute in that environment against that talented defense.  (Sack +/- NE -3, Sea +6)
• In the big rematch from last year's NFC title game, which would still be going if not for Kyle Williams fumbling, the Giants travel back to San Francisco, and I'm taking the Niners because I believe Coach Insane has been gearing them for this one since the start of the year.  No insight, just my feeling that he's that batshit crazy.  And since they lost in Minneapolis, they've been on a tear, destroying the Jets and Bills.  The Giants are better than the Jets and Bills, but they're certainly not playing better ball than the 49ers right now.  Plus, they're not in crisis yet, and they don't seem to play well unless they're in crisis.  If this were a playoff game, I'd take the points and pick SF straight up, like Jason is doing.  But I really do think that Jim Harbaugh has got his team thinking that winning this one somehow avenges last season's fuck-up, so I got San Fran by double digits.  (Sack +/- NYG +3, SF -3)
• I guess RG3 is healthy, because the NFL doctors have cleared him after he suffered a concussion last week so severe that he couldn't answer questions along the lines of what the score was and what city he was in.  BTW, that was labeled a "mild concussion."  What the fuck would he have to do to make it a severe concussion?  Start calling everyone by his mother's name while projectile vomiting?  So he's back, and everything's great, and he gets to host Jared Allen with a crappy o-line.  Uh oh.  Jason's going with the Redskins, and I hope he knows that probably means he's backing Kirk Cousins, because I have a funny feeling Bob Griffin ain't making it past the 1st quarter.  I will go with the red-hot Vikings.  (Sack +/- Min +5, Wash -4)
• Jason's backing the home teams in the prime-time matchups, and I got the visitors.  First, on Sunday night, a desperate Green Bay visits undefeated Houston, and because we know the Texans are going to outrun the Packers, it's going to be up to Aaron Rodgers to outthrow Matt Schaub if the Pack are to win.  I think he can do that, even though he won't have Greg Jennings again to throw to.  James Jones has finally been holding on to the ball after he catches it, and so far, they haven't missed Jennings that much.  I can see Dom Capers calling a game that hampers Andre Johnson and dares Schaub to succeed with his other weapons, of which he has few.   Turnovers should be key, as well as Green Bay drawing up protection schemes to block J.J. Watt from attacking Rodgers repeatedly.  (Sack +/- GB -3, Hou +12)
• Monday, Peyton Manning has yet another nighttime battle with an established veteran QB, this time Philip Rivers.  This early Denver schedule has been insane, but it should result in a win here because the San Diego environment is tame compared to other places Manning's had to go.  I really had to take notice of Peyton's performance in New England last week, throwing for 345 yards and 3 TDs in a game the Broncos were losing all the way, so everyone knew he had to throw.  If they're behind in SD, it won't be by much, and they can steal one late.  At least that's what I'm hoping.  I know I criticized Manning's throws, but as long as he's producing, I guess it really doesn't matter how long his wobbly-ass throws hang in the air.  I picked the Broncos to win the division, and this is a game they need to win if they're going to make it happen.   (Sack +/- Den +4, SD -4)

Thu. Nite Steelers @ Titans

There must be a damn good reason for both Jason and me to go road fav on the short week.  I didn't talk to Jas before he texted me his 27-9 Pittsburgh prediction over Tennessee, but I'm going to assume it's for the same reason that I'm also calling for a Steelers squoosh:  The Titans positively blow.  It's a very good test for my thought that you can't take the road team on Thursday unless it's the only choice.  I wanted to give the Titans the benefit, and I wanted to slight the Steelers because they haven't been impressive at all this season.  But I'll have to forsake stats and go with the eyeball test this evening.  Tennessee just doesn't look ready to compete with any professional team right now.  The line is Pit -6.  If it matters, I may not go road team on Thursday the rest of the fucking year.

My Pick:  Pittsburgh 38-13

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2012 Week 5: What I Learned

• I learned to be grateful when I get a week over .500 picking stupid shit like the Jaguars in a big upset or the Ravens on the road against inferior competition.  What was I thinking?
• How 'bout that undefeated Arizona squad?  No one saw them comin'!  They're the next big thing, they're hot, they're on the come, they're...being sacked 702 times by the Rams, who weren't even blitzing extra guys.  They're fucked.
• Shout out to DA!!  David Aldridge, Washington, DC native and sidekick on Tony Kornheiser's radio show, had a prediction that Robert Griffin III would get KTFO and miss time because the Shanahan Boyz didn't know how to use him properly, what with all of their retarded option plays and called QB sprints.  I don't care how athletic he is, you don't do that to your star franchise QB.  But Aldridge didn't just say it would happen eventually, he said it would happen Week 5, guaranteed.  And he said this before the Goddamn season began.  I bow to the greatness of David Aldridge.  I'll get to Andrew Luck later, but as an example, he's quite the athletic QB and the Colts don't have him running the fucking option.  If he were of African heritage, maybe...anyhow, Atlanta needed that hit and the Washington defense to play down to their potential to mount a 2nd-half comeback.  Cause for concern?  Perhaps, but you should always be cautious picking the Falcons on grass.  They're just not the same team, ass-kickings of San Diego and Kansas City this year notwithstanding.
• I'm about through with Michael Vick.  He may be done.  Like, ineffective the rest of his career done.  This dude refuses to be careful with the football, plus he's not nearly as electric as he used to be.  Philadelphia had a formula with Vick a couple of years back when they saw that he still had some game.  His open-field talent scared the fuck out of other teams, so they could sprint him a couple of times to set up huge shots downfield throwing to DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin.  But now teams are better at covering those receivers at all times, and Vick isn't nearly as explosive as just a couple of years back.  And now, he's also giving up the ball almost every time he handles it.  Pittsburgh worries me too because their offensive rhythm was all off early, but I'll let it slide due to coming back from the bye week.  Big Ben and the WRs put it together in the end, but not enough to cover the number.
• Indy Inspiration because of their sick coach?  Uh, no.  Here's the thing about media narratives:  You gotta be smart and inspect all of these stories and find the real truth.  Don't you think that if for one second the Colts could play better football just because they were inspired by their head coach Chuck Pagano being out due to leukemia, it would manifest itself in the first half?  It's that simple, people.  If Indianapolis were inspired by Coach, they wouldn't have trailed 21-3 in the 3rd quarter.  They were down because they're not good and Green Bay is, and they came back and won because they mounted a pass rush on the Packers and their shit offensive line, and because Andrew Luck is a fucking baller.  No more, no less.  Oh, one more reason--always keep an eye on Clay Matthews, 'cause I'm still convinced that GB's defense performs only as well as he does.  And he was absent during the Colt rally.  They picked him up very well on his blitzes.  They deserve the credit, not the ghost of Chuck Pagano.
• Maybe the New York Giants don't play well unless they're in some sort of crisis.  They don't make Super Bowl runs unless they're the last team in the playoffs, all road games, all hostile environs.  They're historically mediocre at home under Tom Coughlin.  And their three home games this season, they got dong-whipped by the Cowboys, were getting killed by the Bucs before Eli Manning threw for 6,000 yards, and they were losing by double digits in the 1st half to the Cleveland Browns.  Gawd.  Maybe they turned it on and came back only because it was the Cleveland Browns.  Maybe a real team smothers them and puts them away.  The Browns?  They're employing a QB who qualifies for AARP and yet didn't know that when you throw a forward pass once and it gets knocked back to you, that's a completed pass, and you can't throw it forward again.  That about sums that game up.
• Cincinnati had a good rhythm going on offense early against Miami, but the game got decided because Andy Dalton and co. settled for FGs, and Ryan Tannehill and the Fins didn't.  When two similar teams go head-to-head, something that simple often decides it.  Miami's defense cinched it up and kept the Bengals out of the end zone.  Both teams scored 3 times, but Miami scored two TDs, and that was that.  A missed Mike Nugent FG late helped, too.
• What was that mess in Kansas City?  I'm not talking about cheering the Chiefs' QB Matt Cassel getting hurt.  I have no problem with that.  If he didn't suck, he wouldn't have gotten booed.  I'm talking about the Ravens and Joe Flacco losing their mojo and turning in a turd of a performance against a defense that had not impressed anyone this year.  I'm sick and tired of this team playing like shit against teams that they underestimate.  I thought they had gotten over that this season, but maybe not.  Baltimore allowed 3.2 yards per carry coming into this game.  How the fuck did Jamaal Charles rush for 125 in the 1st half?  And how did KC not have a lead with that kind of outing?  Oh yeah, Cassel's their QB.  Almost forgot.  Well, not for the near future.  Now Kansas City gets to cheer for the backup...BRADY QUINN?!?  Oh no.  They're gonna want Cassel back within the next couple of weeks.
• I don't like Cam Newton's decision-timing right now.  Not his decision-making, his decision-timing.  He doesn't seem to be making really bad decisions, like throwing into double-coverage or things like that.  But he seems to be taking forever to choose what he wants to do.  The offensive line can only block so long.  Whether it's option plays or drop-back throws, Cam's got a crisis of confidence going, and he'd better snap out of it quickly.  His coordinator called a throw late in the game on 4th-and-1, and I like that even less.  WTF???  The incompletion stopped a Panthers drive and gave a win to the Seahawks, and Seattle earned it, but still, Carolina didn't have a fair chance to let their playmakers make the plays to steal it at the end.  Really, 4th-and-1 and you need to call a pass??
• Jay Cutler's pick-and-stick rhythm belied my thoughts that he and Mike Tice couldn't call a good game plan two weeks in a row.  I was dead fucking wrong.  No two ways about it.  It helped that Jacksonville has absolutely no pass rush, but I knew that when I made the pick, so that's no excuse.  I'm sure the Bears are wondering, just as everyone else watching, how were they tied at the half with this dogshit team?  Then the 2nd half happened, and the cream rose to the top.
• Speaking of the better team putting it together, Minnesota--who, again, don't misunderstand me, is not a good NFL team, not at all--just trounced Tennessee, and that 30-7 score isn't right because it was a bigger blowout than even that.  Tennessee might be the worst team in the league.
• Peyton Manning was on his way to leading a comeback that would have earned Jason and me a backdoor cover when McGahee happened.  That's Willis McGahee, the Denver RB who's been pretty good this year but had a 4th quarter in New England that he'd like to forget.  He dropped a 4th-and-1 pass (there's that throwing on 4th-and-1 shit again), and he fumbled on the final Broncos drive.  Add in DeMaryius Thomas catching a long pass from Peyton on the opening drive and getting stripped at the NE 14, and the story of the game was, two surgeons in Manning and Tom Brady doing what surgeons do, but Manning was betrayed by his teammates.  I still think those long rainbow throws from Peyton don't have much on them, and a real secondary would have been camped under most of them.
• Wait...Buffalo might be worst team in the league.  Do the Titans and Bills play this year?
• Maybe there was inspiration in the air in New Orleans as well?  After all, the exiled coach and GM and defensive coordinator were all in the house for Drew Brees to break the all-time consecutive TD pass record.  That should have propelled the Saints to a blowout win over the Chargers...except the Chargers were winning 24-14 in the 3rd quarter.  Again, take that bullshit media narrative about being inspired by coaches or GMs or whatever and throw it as far out the window as your arms will allow.  The Saints won the game (and covered the number) mostly because Brees and WRs Devery Henderson and Marques Colston got on the same page for the first time this season.  Also, because on the San Diego final drive, referees twice disallowed big passes downfield due to dubious penalties, then LT Jared Gaither blew a tire and let NO defenders run right around him to get to QB Philip Rivers, and one of those defenders sacked Rivers, stripped the ball, and covered it up for the win.  Sean Payton didn't make Gaither's leg cramp up.
• I'm afraid Monday night showed me something I didn't want to admit:  Houston's not very good.  I like them a lot because they come right at you on offense and defense, without a lot of razzle-dazzle.  But look, the Jets are complete crap up and down, and the Texans should have killed them with the quickness.  But Houston was so lackluster that they were lucky they were playing the Jets, because another team may have completed the comeback and won the game.  Instead, New York managed to cover.  I've been talking about Houston's terrible schedule so far this year, and they still should sweep their division because all those teams stink.  But I don't think I'm taking them against any decent teams until they show me some consistency.  They let Mark Sanchez hit large plays in the air with receivers whom most of us have never heard of.  Kerley?  Where was Larry and Moe?  Schilens?  Wasn't he cut by the Raiders?  Cumberland?  Who the hell is he?  And anyone worried about the Jets' QB choice for purposes other than gambling or fantasy, please get hit by a fast train.  Thank you.

 Week 5 Records--Dre 8-6, .571; Jay 5-9, .357
YTD Records--Dre 44-31-2, .587; Jay 42-33-2, .560

Week 5 ATS Recap: Damage Control

Every year, we have those weeks. The weeks where favorites barely don't cover spreads, upsets don't come through, and the reads on certain teams just weren't accurate. Sometimes we just have "weeks like that." The key is, don't let those be 2 or 3 win weeks, like I've stacked up the last few seasons. Even this week, I'll take a 5-9, and I know for damn certain that Dre will take his 8-6 (hell of a season he's having, by the way).

Changing topics, this week I was informed by Dre that our late night Saturday picks were wearing him out, what with the 2 hours it takes us to focus to get the picks in, and then the time it takes him to post the picks. Totally understandable. We are pretty consistent with our 8:30 Central start times, because fuck it, we do it live. So I offered to call him earlier, say 7pm. That won't work, he says, because he hasn't had time to get all the research in for his picks. In fact, he hadn't even finished picking the prime time matchups for Week 5 when I called at 8:30. We lost both those picks.

• Rams (+2½) 17, Cardinals 3 - Both winners - Thank God for Thursday night. We gifted ourselves a win in the TNF contest, both of us on the thinking that the Cardinals were nowhere near as talented nor as deserving of the hype they were having heaped upon them. The Rams didn't look like world beaters, but when Kevin Kolb is overthrowing everyone in sight, you don't need to.
• Falcons (-3) 24, Redskins 17 - Both winners - Looks like the Falcons enployed the Mike Vick Defense against RG3. As in, bust him the fucking head until he can't come back in the game anymore and voila! you win! The Falcons should know how to play that defense since they saw it enough during the Vick years in Atlanta.
• Steelers 16, Eagles (+3½) 14 - Both winners - Much will be made of Mike Vick losing two more fumbles, but the Steelers pretty much dominated the stat sheet (and thanks to Vick won the turnover battle). I'll just say thanks for the cheap cover and move on.
• Colts (+7) 30, Packers 27 - Jason winner, Dre loser - It would figure that this would be one of the head to heads I won against Dre this week, since my whole rationale for the pick was "um, yeah!" Dre was only upset that I didn't go Howard Dean on him.
• Giants (-9½) 41, Browns 27 - Dre winner, Jason loser - The Browns actually played this game much tighter than the final indicated, initally jumping out to a 17-7 lead. In the end, the Browns had no answer for the Giants running attack (over 200 yards) or Brandon Weeden not knowing how many forward passes you can attempt on the same play (hint: it's not 2).
• Dolphins (+3½) 17, Bengals 13 - Dre winner, Jason loser  - Oh, how you've forsaken me Bengal Bumslayer Rule. How can we continue to live in a world where the Bengals don't feast upon teams with losing records. For 4 weeks, this was a mortal lock. Now, chaos.
• Ravens 9, Chiefs (+6½) 6 - Both losers - Seriously? Only THESE Ravens could phone a game like this in. You could have a paraplegic play this game in Madden 100 times as the Ravens and get a cover every time. But THESE Ravens show up in phone-it-in mode and can't even score a touchdown. Not one measley TD? In other news, Chiefs fans cheered when Matt Cassell got hurt, and wow, that's just cold. His backup is Brady Quinn. This reminds me of Bears fans being happy that Jay Cutler got hurt so they could see more Caleb Hanie. Careful what you wish for.
• Seahawks (+2½) 16, Panthers 12 - Dre winner, Jason loser - This is starting to get ugly for Cam Newton. I don't know what it is about these quarterbacks that are tremendously gifted athletes coming to the pros, but they don't handle adversity very well at all. Why does Newtons situation now remind me oh so much of Vince Youngs career trajectory. In college, both those guys were just better and faster than everyone else, so the game was just easy, they never had to face any real pressure. Both won national championships as well on the strength of their gifts. One flamed out, and the other, if he's not careful, could be in the same company a few years down the road. You're the team leader. Lead it.
• Bears (-5½) 41, Jaguars 3 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Now for a few picks from the Batshit Insane Department. Part One: Dre had the Jags to WIN this game.
• Vikings (-5½) 30, Titans 7 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Batshit Insane: Part Two. I had the Titans to hang with the Vikes. Wow, the Titans are a steaming pile right now.
• Patriots (-6½) 31, Broncos 21 - Both losers - Do the Broncos plan on ever getting a lead against good teams? It's hard to win when you're only hope is a mad dash comeback attempt from Peyton Manning. I mean it's fun to watch, but the Broncos appear to be heavily mediocre. They may have a little Bumslayer in them.
• Niners (-10) 45, Bills 3 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Batshit Insane: Part Three. What was I thinking? My only solace here is knowing that Dre is slowly being driven to madness (more madness) every time the Niners offense lights up some fools. The Niners gained 621 yards on offense. That's obscene, even given the awfulness of the Bills defense. The Bills gave up less to New England in their 52 point outburst. How sad for the Bills, though? 97 points against in TWO WEEKS? There's 12 teams that haven't given up that many points all season. And I picked them.
• Saints (-3½) 31, Chargers 24 - Both losers - This was the Show-Me pick of the week. In my pick, I stated I wouldn't be shocked to see a Saint win here. I mean, they weren't going 0-16 with that offense, but I was picking against them til they showed me something.
• Texans 23, Jets (+9) 17 - Both losers - Yeah, the Jets covered, but the superior team prevailed in the end. Despite all the trickeration and Razzle Dazzle on special teams, including a 100 yard KO return for a touchdown, the Jets just didn't have the muscle to compete with Houston. Total Fraud completed less than 50% of his throws, the Jet defense was gashed repeatedly by Arian Foster, and the Tim Tebow wildcat isn't even the best wildcat currently in the NFL (that would be the Colin Kaepernick version of it in San Fran). Sadly, the Texans 5-0 start will be overshadowed by the nuclear implosion going on at Jet camp. This is seriously going to be the most overhyped and overcovered 7-9 team EVER.

2012 Week #5

Week 5 is where some silliness can start to occur during a football season.  Teams who were great in the first 4 games can start to come back to Earth, other teams who stunk can figure out why they stink, and teams can lose focus and start going down to not-so-good units.  I've got a few surprises for this week's picks, and Jason does too.  We'll see which can keep his red-hot season going.

Fav	Spread	Dog			Dre	Jay
	Thu. Nite
Ariz (4-0)	2½	STL (2-2)	StL 17-3		StL	StL
	Sunday
Atl (4-0)	3	WASH (2-2)			Atl	Atl
PIT (1-2)	3½	Phi (3-1)			Phi	Phi
GB (2-2)	7	IND (1-2)			GB	Ind
NYG (2-2)	9½	Cle (0-4)			NY	Cle
CIN (3-1)	3	Mia (1-3)			Mia	Cin
Bal (3-1)	6½	KC (1-3)			Bal	Bal
CAR (1-3)	2½	Sea (2-2)			Sea	Car
Chi (3-1)	5½	JACK (1-3)			Jack	Chi
MIN (3-1)	5½	Tenn (1-3)			Min	Tenn
NE (2-2)	6½	Den (2-2)			Den	Den
SF (3-1)	10	Buf (2-2)			SF	Buf
	Sun. Nite
NO (0-4)	3½	SD (3-1)			SD	SD
	Mon. Nite
Hou (4-0)	9	NYJ (2-2)			Hou	Hou

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• The love affair with RG3 goes back home to DC as the Redskins host the perfect Falcons.  We're going with Atlanta to stay perfect.  Not only can I not figure out how Robert Griffin III can keep averaging well over 8 yards per pass attempt when he has almost no weapons, not only does the no-account, sorry-ass Washington pass rush get to try to harness Matty Ice, but a stat, and a very simple one:  Washington is 0-7 in their last 7 home games.  The Falcons haven't played down to the competition yet.  Don't start this week, please.
• Pittsburgh is coming off a bye, and veteran defenders Troy Polamalu and James Harrison should give it a go against Michael Vick and the Eagles in a fight for the state of Pennsylvania.  But Jason and I are getting worried about the health and age of the Steelers defense.  Still looking to play at a high level on offense despite being 3-1, we like Vick and the Eagles to get the win.  Jay calls Philly "the most underachieving 3-1 team ever," but we still like them over a slower than usual Pittsburgh team compiling only 5 sacks and 1 pick through their first 3 games.
• If not for Graham Harrell's butterfingers, the Packers were well on their way to covering the number against New Orleans.  Someone get Aaron Rodgers a visor to protect those eyes.  I will take Green Bay to build on that momentum and take out a game Indianapolis squad coming off a bye.  If that Pack D backslides and lets Andrew Luck throw his way back, the Colts could cover, but I'm hoping they can get a lead and rush the passer and have some fun.  Jason will go with the Luck of the Horseshoe (see what I did there?) to cover that TD.  When I asked why, he profoundly responded, "Um...yeah."  So he's got a solid grasp on why he expects Indy to stay close with Green Bay.
• I've been burned so many times picking the Giants to cover a big number that I really thought I would go with Cleveland as Jason did before I studied my precious stats.  Jay, showing his age, talked about the Browns hanging tough like NKOTB, and I think I just threw up in my mouth a little.  Yes, Cleveland has shown fight in all of their games.  They've also shown that they suck.  They will bring the 28th-ranked pass defense to Jersey to face Eli Manning's 2nd-ranked pass offense.  I can see Eli throwing for 300 yards even without Ramses Barden or Hakeem Nicks.
• The Bengal Bumslayer Rule will sway Jason to take Cincinnati over Miami, who sport a bumtastic 1-3 record.  Why am I picking the Dolphins for the upset win?  Because I think they're a smidge above "Bum."  Arizona's defense was overrated, but not where they should have given up over 400 yards to Ryan Tannehill and over 250 yards to Brian Hartline.  Cincy's defense should accommodate Miami putting up more big numbers.  The Bengals are giving up a massive 5.4 yards per carry and 7.7 yards per throw.  The Andy Dalton-to-A.J. Green Connection probably won't be derailed, but the Fins may have the last possession, and the last laugh.
• I had bad flashbacks of that playoff game a few years ago, when Jamaal Charles was supposed to lead Kansas City to a defining win over Baltimore.  Charles burst for a big TD and a 7-0 lead, and the Chiefs proceeded to act like they just realized that they don't belong on a major stage.  This year, KC and "defensive guru" Romeo Crennel is giving up 8.5 yards per throw.  Once again, they're not ready for a major stage.  Jason says there will be a banner flying over the game that will read "Fire Pioli, Bench Cassel."  The only reason Crennel isn't in that banner is, he just got there.  Be patient, Romeo.  They'll hate you too imminently.
• What a great test for a Seattle defense that has performed admirably this year thus far.  The Carolina Panthers are far from perfect, but they are an extremely potent offense that will maul you if you're not careful.  Jason will go with the Panthers and Cam Newton to build off of their showing against Atlanta and knock off the Seahawks making a long trip.  I'll go with Seattle in a close one.  Marshawn Lynch can go Beast Mode on this D, especially without Jon Beason, who's one of Carolina's best tacklers.  And as long as Haruki Nakamura is running around for the Panthers looking like a fan who wandered in off the street, the opposition always has a chance.
• Now is where I get silly.  Chicago looked awesome Monday night in killing the always overhyped Dallas Cowboys, and now they get to go to Florida to face what may be the worst team in the league, the Jacksonville Jaguars.  Jason and many, many other folks cannot fathom the Bears blowing this contest, and they like Chi-Town to rumble.  He LOVES the under, says it feels like an ugly 13-3 win.  Now, I'm not completely insane.  I'm not picking Blaine Gabbert to beat the Bears.  I'm picking Maurice Jones-Drew to beat the Bears.  Not because of any stupid grudge there may still be concerning MJD's criticism of Jay Cutler's toughness on Twitter a couple of years back during the NFC title game.  No, I'm picking this one straight up because I don't trust Mike Tice and Cutler to respect their opponent well enough to come up with a great game plan like they did in Dallas.  Consequently, the turnovers caused by Cutler getting belted will give the Jags great field position all evening, and Jones-Drew can march into the end zone with little resistance.  I hope I'm wrong and that Chicago can come up with the right offensive game plan.  But I don't trust the parties involved to respect Jacksonville's defense like they did DeMarcus Ware and the Cowboys.
• Tennessee smells.  I can smell them from here.  The Titans, not the people.  I live in Tennessee now, and trust me, the smell of these fine folks is much appreciated now that I'm far away from the smells of the panhandlers and bums of Chicago.  Anyway, the Titans will send Matt Hasselbeck out as QB after Jake Locker hurt himself again, and that's enough to give them their first win this year, according to Jason.  Minnesota's due to fall back to the pack.  He's right about that, but I don't think Tennessee's the team to do it.  The Vikings should step on a far inferior team and ascend to 4-1.  I'm not calling them a division champ or anything, but they're a not-terribly-bad squad.
• I hoped this game would be on prime time, but two surgeons, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, will perform in Massachusetts when the Broncos play the Patriots in the late afternoon.  And although Jay and I both think one surgeon has a much better arm these days, we like the other surgeon to keep it close and cover a kinda big spread.  Manning may not be what he was, but he's good enough to carve up a bad D and keep Denver in the game.  As an aside, I wonder if a coach can get away with putting the entire active roster on the injury report as "questionable" as a way to stick it back at Bill Belichick.  He's a real penis.
• Can Buffalo get out to an early advantage and force Alex Smith and the 49ers to play from behind?  No?  Then this is my Lock of the Week.  Jason thinks otherwise.  Buffalo's not the pathetic Jets, he contends, and the Bills can maybe hang close enough to San Francisco to win the pick on a garbage-time TD.  I don't think Buffalo is as bad as the Jets, either, and they should avoid the shutout.  But they're not much better, and Buffalo's defense should allow the Niners to have their way with them and do whatever they want.
• It's the very rare double-road team dip on our two nighttime picks.  First, we're going with San Diego to step into the Bayou and keep the New Orleans Saints winless.  We still haven't learned that interim interim head coach's name.  That's because he hasn't done shit to warrant the recognition.  Every time the Saints score, the Chargers should bolt right back, because that's how utterly horrendous the Saints defense has been.  They need a new bounty system, I'm telling ya.  I may not have much respect for Norv Turner, but I can't pick him to get outcoached by an interim v.2.
• And Monday night, Jon Gruden gets to make ice cream out of horseshit and try to tell a nation how good Mark Sanchez and the New York Jets can be if they tie it together and tighten it up.  What a crock that will be.  The plain fact is, the Jets don't have a real quarterback on their fucking roster, and they expect to win like that?  That outing Week 1 for Sanchez against the Bills, he should get the DVD of that game framed and forever preserved.  That Houston team they gotta face is going to get a hoot out of these Jets as they try to play and contend with one of the league's elite squads.  The Texans aren't going to be in a hurry because there's no bonus for violating your opponent quicker than normal.  They're going to take their time, they're going to beat the Jets, it's going to be clean and painless, and it should be by more than 9 points.  Even if Jesus is allowed into the game as the replacement QB.

Thu. Nite Cardinals @ Rams

No surprise that undefeated Arizona comes in to St. Louis as a 2 and a hook-point fav.  The surprise may be that Jason and I are both calling for the upset.  No, the Rams don't look like world-beaters, but neither do the Cards, at least not after letting Miami put up yards aplenty on their supposedly improved defense.  I'm glad that Steven Jackson will get a stage to show what he can do, because I'm a longtime fan.  But Sam Bradford should be the star of the evening.  If Tannehill and Hartline can go bananas on the Cards, so should Sam and Gibson.  Jason calls it 23-21.  I have a few more points on the board but the same home team winning on short rest.

My Pick:  St. Louis 27-20

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Week 4 ATS Recap: Dre's Great Season Continues!

How bout that Andre? He wasn't too receptive to all the praise I was heaping upon him for the great start to the season that he's having, but c'mon: the guy is a monster! What is it now? Eleven games over .500 for the season, and we're only through week 4. That's incredible! He basically nailed the score of the Thursday night game last week too. Amazing. You know what else? The guy doesn't change his picks either. I have to admit, after spending a night bashing the Saints and then taking them to cover the spread (which is typical for me), that I listened to my own reasoning and flip-flopped to the Packers. It's an election year, so flip-flopping should be accepted.

Dre and I differed on 8 picks, so of course he crushed me, right? I mean, the guy is sporting a .590 win percentage for the year. Hell of a season!

• Ravens 23, Browns (+12) 16 - Both winners - This was too easy. The Ravens gutted out a tough, emotional, controversial win over the team that knocked them out of the Super Bowl last year in the Patsies. In came Cleveland on a short week. We've seen this too many times to count, but of course the Ravens were going to let the Brownies hang around. Hell, they almost let them tie the game at the very end. Nothing surprising here, and don't think for an instant that this game diminishes the Ravens title hopes, this is just how they roll.
• Patriots (-Not Enough) 52, Bills 28 - Both winners - Ouch. Buffalo scores 28 and lost by almost as many. The Patriots rallied from a 21-7 deficit to score 45 second half points. That's some serious ass-whoopery.
• Texans (-11½) 38, Titans 14 - Dre winner, Jason loser - I was a little taken back when the Titans announced that Jake Locker would start the season at QB, with a brutal 5 game stretch to start the season. After next weeks game against Pittsburgh would have been a perfect time to scrape Matt Hasselbeck off the turf and turn the keys over to Locker. As it turns out, it's Locker being scraped off the turf just about every week, and now Hasselbeck looks to be starting for the forseeable future after Locker reagrivated his left shoulder separation. Nothing to report for the Texans, they're still awfully good.
• Chargers (-1) 37, Chiefs 20 - Both winners - We cited how awful the Saints are in handing this game to the Bolts. Correct we were, while Jamaal Charles comeback season continues to go strongly, the Chargers did not allow the Chiefs to RUN their way back from a big defecit the way the Saints no-account defense did. Another easy win.
• Vikings (+4) 20, Lions 13 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Props to Dre for seeing this one coming (he's having a hell of a season didn't you know?). The Lions dominated the stat sheet against the Vikes, except for a couple little things. One: special teams. Two: Scoreboard! The Lions special teams channeled their inner Chargers special teams en route to allowing two special teams scores for the second straight week. They lost both games by a combined 10 points. I'm still not sold on the Vikings, who could be last years Bills. No, that's not something to aspire to.
• Falcons 30, Panthers (+7) 28 - Both winners - Sure, the Falcons needed some careless Cam Newton ball handling and horrific secondary play to eke out a win at home against a game Panther squad, but would the Falcons have it any other way? This Atlanta squad just keeps racking up regular season wins, which is nice and all, but we've seen this show before.
• Rams (+3) 19, Seahawks 13 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Finally, I started taking some games from Dre. Something seemed off about the spread for this game, making the "2-1" Seahwaks a road favorite against division rival St. Louis. Had Russell Wilson's game winning interception gone the other way, I doubt that the line would have had Sea -3. Nevertheless, the Rams rose up and slogged out a sloppy win that would have covered any theoretical spread.
• Niners (-4½) 34, Jets 0 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Back in week 1 I said that I'd never been so happy to lose a pick. Scratch that, NOW I've never been so happy to lose a pick. God, I hate the fucking Jets.
• Cardinals 24, Dolphins (+5) 21 (OT) - Jason winner, Dre loser - It would have made me happier if the Dolphins had hung on to win this game just so I don't have to see another "Power Poll" with the Cardinals in the #1 spot. Ridiculous.
• Broncos (-7) 37, Raiders 6 - Dre winner, Jason loser - When I lost picks this week to Dre, I lost them big! Niners 34-0? Didn't see it coming. Vikings special teams outscore the Lions? Nope, didn't see it either. Peyton Manning handing the Raiders their lunch? Let's just say I'm glad all losses count for the same. What NFL was I watching?
• Bengals (-1) 27, Jaguars 10 - Both winners - Seriously, we need to head to Vegas with the Bengal Bumslayer Rule. By my calculations, the Bengals will win 4 more games the rest of the season (Miami, Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland). Sadly, 7-9 wont get it done. The Bengals just don't play enough bums.
• Packers 28, Saints (+9) 27 - Both losers - Yes, I changed my pick, and over 20+ years of doing this, I don't think it's ever worked. Should I go on to lose the season to Dre by one game, I'll be able to point to this one game as the sole reason why. Of course, it's all nonsense, considering the Packers were on their way to rolling up the Saints until Graham Harrell decided to shit the bed and fumble on the Saints goal line. Aaron Rodgers better start wearing a visor, or he's gonne get the Curly treatment from other teams just to get Harrell some meaningful snaps. Matt Flynn he's not.
• Redskins (+1) 24, Bucs 22 - Jason winner, Dre loser - At this point, I might be the only remaining member of the Josh Freeman fan club, especially if people saw the tape of his first half against Washington. He got it turned around in the second half and even had his team up 1 with time running out, but in the end it was too much RG3 for the Bucs to handle. Hey Josh, it's a lot easier to win games when you don't let the other team get up 21-6 on you. Unless you're Tom Brady, then it's no big deal.
• Eagles (-1) 19, Giants 17 - Both winners - Ya gotta love the Eagles. Three wins by a combined 4 points. And the Giants! They've rolled up some also rans Bengal-style but are now 0-2 in their division. I can't make heads or tails of either one of these teams, so I won't even try. This whole division has 8-8 written all over it.
• Bears (+3½) 34, Cowboys 18 - Jason winner, Dre loser - I can just see Dre sitting there before I made my pick for this game going "please take Dallas, please take Dallas, please....awww dammit, I'm fucked." You can't mess with Bear Whispering.

Jason & Dre 10-5