2013 Week 8: What I Learned

• We may have laughed about it on the podcast, but I learned that it may be time to go back to the Sacks Allowed/Sacks Earned stat, because this week seemed to be all about shitty pass blocking, game after game after game.
• In Tampa last Thursday, the Bucs took a flawed defensive strategy on the field against Carolina and, shocker, got exploited over and over.  Tampa Bay U. hasn't actually quit yet on its college coach; a different Florida team has earned the first FedEx Mail-It-In Team™ award of the season, but we'll get to them next, ol' chap.  Tampa just doesn't know how to adjust and do things differently, a trait no doubt earned from their rigid coach Greg Schiano.  Cam Newton and the Panthers shredded the zone pass defense repeatedly and without much effort.  The Bucs offense of course couldn't rally behind rag-armed Mike Glennon, but they were also plagued by bad snaps, Glennon's inaccuracy, lack of a run attack, and just being bad.  All I can say is, at least they did appear to be still trying.
• And now, presenting the first 2013 FedEx Mail-It-In Team™, the Jacksonville Jaguars!!  Confetti showers all around.  Does anyone think they're trying out there?  If Schiano is the college coach at Tampa Bay U., Gus Bradley is presiding over Jacksonville Prep Academy of Hair Design.  It's the 1-7 ATS that stands out for the Jaguars, not just the 0-8 SU.  They've only covered that ridiculous four-TD line at Denver, and nothing else.  I really don't know where they're going to get a win down the road, or a cover, for that matter.  Oh, that's five wins in a row for San Francisco.
• Jason Campbell was much better than anticipated for the Brown Fever, and he led them to a cover over the still-not-impressive Kansas City Chiefs.  He couldn't get the win late partially because a bad KC punt broke good when the Browns muffed it, and partially because the Chiefs finally clamped down on defense.  But most of the game, Campbell found success with quick deliveries, avoiding the KC pass rush, and a couple of times, he was mobile enough to escape pressure.  Now, quick throws, a flea-flicker, and a little mobility shouldn't be enough to almost beat an 8-0 team, but again, Kansas City isn't that good.  The Browns seemed to adjust mid-game to Alex Smith's tricks of throwing screens against the blitz and short crossing patterns against deep coverage.  The Cleveland blitz started getting home, and the Browns had chances to pull off the upset.  We'll see if Campbell can be consistent and provide some basic QB play for the Browns the rest of the way.  He's better than Brandon Weeden, for damn sure.
• What happened in Massachusetts was sad to watch for me as a Miami believer.  The Dolphins outplayed the Patriots in the first half, came out fired up for the second half eager to put the Pats away, and melted under the New England no-huddle offense and vomit-inducing blocking.  It was like LT Bryant McKinnie had one good half left in him before he retired on the field without giving notice.  He was great helping Miami execute a short passing game early, and it was clear the Dolphins' Job One was to protect Ryan Tannehill.  They even ran the ball on 4th-and-1 right where Vince Wilfork would have been standing, and they rattled Tom Brady, and everything was going their way...and then New England brought the blitz in the 2nd half and Tannehill had no chance.  He even seemed to lose trust by the end, cringing and bracing himself before the D arrived.  That's dangerous.  If your starting QB doesn't think he's got time to do anything, even when he has time, there goes your entire game plan.  Give the Pats credit for awesome run blocking out of the no-huddle, but Miami had an opportunity to make a real statement and shit the bed.
• New Orleans still can't stop the run, but they can hit the hell out of a QB and make him skittish in the pocket.  More bad pass blocking helped the Saints beat the Bills and cover the big number, and yes, I crushed another bandwagon.  Thad Lewis wasn't the same QB by the end of his game either.  Perhaps he can share a beer with Tannehill and commiserate.  If the Bills could have stayed on Fred Jackson's back and kept running all game long instead of playing catch-up, they may have had a chance.  But holding Drew Brees and the Saints offense back is a very tough task, especially when Jimmy Graham plays only in the red zone and can't be stopped even when everyone knows the ball is coming his way, and especially when a pass coverage results in a linebacker trying to cover Kenny Stills.  Why the fuck a linebacker was trying to cover Kenny Stills for even one play, I don't know, but that's how he caught his first of two TDs on the day.  I still think New Orleans' best defensive player is Drew Brees.
• How?  How did Dallas let Detroit drive down the field in four plays and win the game with no timeouts and Calvin Johnson open for more catches after an already hellacious day??  Because that's the Dallas Cowboys in a nutshell, I suppose.  Teams who were -4 in turnover ratio were 1-54 all time SU before the Cowboys coughed this one up.  I'm not even mad at losing the pick ATS because I said this game was going to be close and I didn't feel strongly about the pick.  Like a lot of these football simulator websites, I have my games where I'm very confident, and those where it's so close that I don't feel the least bit confident about my pick, but hey, we pick 'em all.  Lots of stuff in this game besides the obvious Megatron display and Dez Bryant tantrum.  Detroit's dirty defense was awake early, and it looked like Tony Romo was going to get KO'd if Dallas didn't protect him better, but they made the adjustment and called more runs to counter the Lions overaggressiveness.  Bryant only had three catches to prove how much of a beast he is, and he did it.  But Johnson was unbelievable.  The quick slants were open for him for some reason, and when Dallas tried to adjust and stop that, Matthew Stafford just started lofting it up for him to go grab it and make video game plays.  The Lions were losing because Stafford's second-most open receiver was Cowboys LB Sean Lee, and because Reggie Bush and Megatron had really bad fumbles in the 2nd half.  As for Bryant, I'm not going to pick one side or the other.  It's true that he's an immature diva for ranting like a madman on the sideline while his team was winning, presumably being selfish and upset for getting way less targets than Megatron was getting.  It's also true that he probably wanted to make more plays to help his team because he knew he was the best option, and as a competitor he should be pissed that he wasn't getting those chances.  Both are truths.  There's no definite side to take.
• Still don't know what's wrong with Eli Manning and why he can't make it click with his receivers this year, but he didn't need to in Philadelphia because the Eagles find ways to shoot themselves in the foot at home.  This time, they actually did it the way Jason and I accurately predicted:  They went to Michael Vick at QB even though he probably wasn't physically ready because Nick Foles was concussed and Matt Barkley isn't trustworthy, and Vick got hurt again, and Barkley came again and wasn't good enough.  That was all she wrote.
• Can a team look more old and slow than the Pittsburgh Steelers did on the first play from scrimmage at Oakland?  Terrelle Pryor ran a simple read option and took it 93 yards up the middle untouched, and the Raiders were off and running.  From there, Pittsburgh forced Pryor into mistakes when he had to throw, but the Steelers couldn't stop the run or run a balanced offense because they were down 14-0 and 21-3, allowing the blitz to tee off on Ben Roethlisberger and smother the comeback attempt.  The atrocious punting and kicking (2 short missed FGs by Shaun Suisham) will get the press, but the Steelers lost because they couldn't protect Big Ben or slow the rush.  If the Steelers' front seven have lost their ability to move laterally and stop the run, they can pack it in now.
• Bengals 49, Jets 9??  Even Ron Burgundy thinks that escalated quickly.  Geno Smith saw what a QB with poise and weapons looks like, and realized that it wasn't him, so he threw two Pick-6s to take the blowout to the ridiculous stage.  I said that Andy Dalton has been steadily showing signs of improvement this season, and this was the culmination.  The Jets took away his favorite toy, A.J. Green, and Dalton shrugged and made a star out of rookie Marvin Jones, throwing him eight completions, four in the end zone.  Can we now say that the Bengals can win even if you take away A.J. Green?  If so, it's exactly the kind of growth I was hoping for when I picked Cincinnati to go to the Super Bowl.  And media coverage tried to put the blame for the pass coverage breakdown on Jets rookie CB Dee Milliner.  That looked like the whole secondary having problems to me, not just one kid.
• I wanted to give Atlanta the next FedEx Mail-It-In Team™ award, but I don't think they mailed it in versus the Cardinals.  I think the Falcons were another of those teams with horrible pass protection this week, I think the Atlanta DBs were as lost as any group I've seen all year between pass coverage and run contain, and I think Matty Ice, naturally, wasn't on the same page with his new receivers at the most inopportune times.  His INTs were nowhere near the intended receivers, and I suspect most or all of the receivers weren't where they were supposed to be.  And this was after Interception Santa gave Atlanta their first three points on a total gift pick, so Atlanta had momentum and opportunity.  Now, keep an eye on them in these next games as their reality sinks in.  They might be ready to mail it in behind their clearly unhappy star TE Tony Gonzalez.  If his effort wanes, the rest of them could follow suit.
• Washington, like Miami, had a better team down and in the crosshairs in the 2nd half and couldn't figure out how to put them away, and we really should take the mental note and learn something about both teams.  Whatever we may have thought about the Dolphins or Redskins, they showed what they're really made of on Sunday.  Pierre Garçon made a great one-handed catch in the 1st half for the Skins, and the next play, the center snapped the ball early and Robert Griffin III wasn't looking for it at all.  RG3 was not in rhythm, he was throwing his deep ball but into double coverage, he got TE Jordan Reed hurt on a throw where he was covered but two other WRs were wide open...and Washington led in the 4th quarter after all that.  Shannyball was in effect, as Washington ran and ran and ran, taking occasional deep pass shots and then going back to the run.  So what happened?  As soon as Peyton Manning got Denver in a rhythm and on the comeback trail in the 4th quarter, Shannyball stopped, RG3 started getting pounded by the Bronco blitz right up the middle, and the snowball rolled down the mountain.  Before you knew it, Griffin was knocked out of the game and Kirk Cousins shouldered the responsibility to lead the comeback against a fired-up Denver D, and that went predictably bad.  Combine an overwhelmed defense with an overwhelmed offensive line, and this is what happened to the Skins in Colorado.  Can't blame just Griffin for this one.
• Speaking of overwhelmed, isn't it obvious by now that Christian Ponder sucks and shouldn't be starting?  Okay, Josh Freeman had a "concussion," but why would Leslie Frazier not go back to Matt Cassel, who's not very good but is better right now than Freeman or Ponder?  I picked Minnesota to cover at home against Green Bay because I hoped that Ponder would feed Adrian Peterson all day like he did last year as Peterson earned league MVP honors.  And AP did work when he could.  But the problem was, when it came time for Ponder to throw, he looked scared shitless to let the ball go.  This is as dangerous as Miami with a QB who looks afraid of contact.  This loss wasn't all on Ponder, of course.  The Vikings D got outclassed by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers all night long.  At one point there was another LB, Chad Greenway, caught covering a WR, Jordy Nelson, and of course that resulted in a Packer TD.  And the run attack wore down Minnesota over time, which it's designed to do.  I'm still amazed at Green Bay's seamless adjustment to being a run-first outfit.  Stick with them until someone stops them, I guess.
• The trend that I cited on the podcast and ignored came up to bite me on the tookus.  Teams favored on Monday night by ten or more points were 5-8 ATS coming into the Seahawks-Rams tilt, but I stuck with Seattle anyway because the Rams were sending Kellen Clemens as their QB and I thought that would be a total disaster against the Seattle secondary.  It wasn't.  Clemens mixed in strong throws with totally off-target ones, and that was enough to lead three FG-scoring drives and cover the number.  Why didn't Seattle score more than 14?  Because of all the offensive offensive line performances this weekend, this was the worst.  Paul McQuistan's still impersonating an offensive lineman, and Robert Quinn couldn't have been happier, as he, Chris Long and the St. Louis defense spent all evening deeper in the Seattle backfield than Lexington Steele in Alexis Texas.  I also have words for Seahawks offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell:  Dude, you tried to get too cute all game long, and you almost got your QB killed.  First-and-goal at the 1 and you called no runs for Marshawn Lynch??  Bullshit!  Total bullshit, and I don't even own Lynch in a fantasy team.  But it was stuff like that that resulted in no rhythm for Russell Wilson and his receivers, along with the lack of protection.  Wilson was also holding the ball a little too long.  The last drive summed up the Rams nicely:  Great running effort from Zac Stacy and Daryl Richardson, good throws from Clemens, a drive that started at their own 3 gets them at about the Seattle 1 needing a TD to win, and...no rushing attempts?  Kellen Clemens' arm against the Seahawks DBs FTW??  Nice try, Rams.  The Redbirds weren't the only losers in town.

Week 8 Records--Dre 5-8, .385; Jay 8-5, .615
YTD Records--Dre 56-62-2, .475; Jay 62-56-2, .525

Week 8 ATS Recap: Stopping the Bleeding

After running out to a 9 game lead in the picks over Dre after week 1, I've been bleeding that lead away in small increments over the last 6 weeks. This week, finally, I was able to notch a few wins under my belt and put a little distance between me and Dre AND improve on my slowly declining win percentage on the year.

Picks We Both Won (4)

• Panthers (-6½) 31, Bucs 13 - Yes the league is pass happy and in love with Tecmo Bowl offenses, but the trend seems to be skewing favorably for the teams that can still retain some semblance of balance. The Panthers turned Mike Glennon and the Doug Martin-less Bucs into a pass happy, one-dimensional team, while Carolina was able to mix in enough runs to move the ball effectively.
• Niners (-14½) 42, Jaguars 10 - It took the Niners all of 18 minutes to cover the spread on this game. There should have been an over/under on THAT.
• Giants (+5) 15, Eagles 7 - I'm still confused as to how the Eagles were 5 point favorites in this game. Sometimes, winning a pick just feels too easy. This was one of those games. Sure, the Giants only managed 5 field goals on the day, but the Vick-Barkley QB tandem for Philly just simply sucks balls. That whole division sucks balls.
• Bengals (-6) 49, Jets 9 - The Jets seem to be going through a bit of "Good Week, Bad Week" syndrome right now. Cincinnati delivered plenty of "Bad Week" in the form of way too much defense and Andy Dalton for the Jets to handle. The Bengals may be ready to take control of the AFC North.

Picks We Both Lost (4)

• Chiefs 23, Browns (+9½) 17 - The Chefs have parlayed a ridiculously easy schedule into an unbeaten season. While they will most likely be one-and-done come playoff time, they can still be proud of what they've accomplished so far, even if it's just barely beating also-rans.
• Patriots (-6½) 27, Dolphins 17 - Miami picked off Tom Bradys first pass of the game and turned momentum into a 17-3 halftime lead. They never scored again, and looked lost in the second half. The Patriots are never a good squad to appear weak to, and both Brady and a ballhawking defense made the Fins look not-ready-for-primetime. Ryan Tannehill has disappeared in a couple big games this season so far, so keep an eye on that.
• Raiders (+1) 21, Steelers 18 - Terelle Pryor ran for more yards (93) on one play than he passed for (88) on the day, catching the Steelers off guard and making a mockery of a defense that never would have allowed that to happen in it's heyday. So much for the Steelers resurgence.
• Seahawks 14, Rams (+11) 9 - Once again, it will be easy to discount Seattle after this horrid performance. If the Rams had not been quarterbacked by anyone other than Jeff Tuel, Matt Barkley, Brandon Weeden, Blaine Gabbert, or in this case Kellen Clemems, they would have easily handled the Seahawks. Seattle was not ready for the defense and running game of the Rams, perhaps caught up a little in reading their own press, and were ripe for the upset. The Rams, minus Sam Bradford, racked up 200 yards of offense more than the Seahawks, but just couldn't find the endzone in a truly painful game to watch. The ESPN broadcast team is starting to spend more time ragging on the quality of the shit MNF games than actual game analysis. It's quite amusing, actually.

Picks Dre Won Head to Head (1)

• Cardinals (-1) 27, Falcons 13 - Atlanta used to be a running team, didn't they? A team that prided itself on pounding teams to death with the ground game to open up the passing lanes has completely lost its identity. After beating the Bucs rushing for 18 yards, the Falcons took that show on the road to Arizona and rushed for 27 yards, led by Matt Ryan's 13. This forced Ryan to put the ball up 61 times (?!?!?!?!) in the air, which is all you need to know about why the Cards won. Arizona has been mediocre enough so far to squeak out 4 wins and could be in the wild card discussion down the stretch. Atlanta? Brady Quinn Done.

Picks I Won Head to Head (4)

• Saints (-11) 35, Bills 17 - Yep, I handed the reins of the Thad Lewis bandwagon over to Dre just in time to bail out and watch that thing go sailing right off the cliff. Lookout below!
• Lions 31, Cowboys (+3) 30 - The Dez Bryant meltdowns were where most of the chatter was after this game, but nobody really talked about how the Lions basically outplayed the Cowboys for most of this game, only allowing Dallas a lead by shooting themselves in the foot repeatedly with turnover after turnover. Detroit ran the ball much better and for damn sure passed it better, as Calvin Johnson decided to show he's the best WR on the planet instead of just in this game. I started the Calvin Johnson for MVP movement the week the Lions shit the bed without him in the lineup at Green Bay. Now I'm all in on it.
• Broncos (-13) 45, Redskins 21 - This pick, and game, looked in doubt for me and Denver about 4 minutes into second half, after a DeAngelo Hall Schaub put the Skins up 21-7. Denver then showed why they are the best second half team in football again, putting on a clinic over the last 26 minutes, scoring 38 unanswered to send the Shanahans back to DC 2-5. Sadly, 2-5 is only 2 games out of the NFC East lead. Did I mention that division sucks balls?
• Packers (-9½) 44, Vikings 31 - The entire 4th quarter of this game was completely meaningless. The Packers visibly quit playing defense, allowing Minnesota to scrounge up 2 late Garbage Time Touchdowns™ , which could have cost me the game had the Packers offense similarly given up. Aaron Rodgers again showed why he is the best QB in the league, as he continues to make stars out of complete nobodies. Jarret Boykin? Myles White? WTF? Also, quietly, Green Bay continues to flex their muscles in the run game. This team has legs (get it?).

Dre 5-8
Jay 8-5

2013 Week #8

Jay and I are in lockstep for most of this crappy slate of Week 8.  We're head-to-head on five games.  Here are our selections:

Fav	Spread	Dog	Final		Dre	Jay
	Thu. Nite
Car (3-3)	6½	TB (0-6)	Car 31-13		Car	Car
	Sunday
SF (5-2)	14½	Jack (0-7)		London, ENG	SF	SF
KC (7-0)	9½	Cle (3-4)			KC	KC
NE (5-2)	6½	Mia (3-3)			Mia	Mia
NO (5-1)	11	Buf (3-4)			Buf	NO
DET (4-3)	3	Dal (4-3)			Det	Dal
PHI (3-4)	5	NYG (1-6)			NY	NY
Pit (2-4)	1	OAK (2-4)			Pit	Pit
CIN (5-2)	6	NYJ (4-3)			Cin	Cin
ARIZ (3-4)	1	Atl (2-4)			Ariz	Atl
DEN (6-1)	13	Wash (2-4)			Wash	Den
	Sun. Nite
GB (4-2)	9½	MIN (1-5)			Min	GB
	Mon. Nite
Sea (6-1)	11	STL (3-4)			Sea	Sea

All of our picks and observations will be heard on our podcast, which starts at 10P Central at blogtalkradio.com/inmuchlessdetail

2013 Week 7: What I Learned

• That would be four weeks consecutive over .500 for yours truly.  Just chipping away, working hard and eating into Jason's lead.  I'm being inspired by my Memphis Grizzlies getting ready to start the NBA season, showing Grit and Grind, proving that we don't bluff in the Bluff City.  Or maybe I'm on a streak that's lucky as fuck.
• Jason and I both thought that Arizona would be ready for prime time under the Thursday night lights against Seattle, and we couldn't have been more wrong.  The only hopespot for the Cardinals came after they stuffed the Seahawks on 4th-and-1 at the Arizona 47 in the 2nd quarter, which was the right call to go for it.  The Cards scored on the ensuing possession, and they looked like they had maybe turned the tide.  Then Marshawn "Skittles" Lynch started going Beast Mode, and the Cards had no answer.  It was the physical battle that I hoped it would be, but Arizona didn't seem to be ready for that, especially on the first defensive and offensive series of the game.  Both teams had to overcome terrible left tackle play--seriously, Paul McQuistan and Bradley Sowell should have been escorted from the premises for impersonating football players--but Seattle's blitz was relentless all game long, and eventually Interception Santa coughed up two bad picks, helping the Seahawks to victory.  Easily the best road effort all year by Seattle, and the best I've seen Russell Wilson throw this season, too.
• Two bad pass defenses did battle in Atlanta, but the Dirty Birds prevailed.  We counted on the Falcons to let Mike Glennon do some damage and allow Tampa Bay U. to hang around, and he put up 256 yards and two TDs.  We didn't count on Matty Ice minus Roddy White and Julio Jones to go for 273 and three scores.  WTF?!  Atlanta ran for 18 net yards for the whole game and still beat TBU by eight.  I guess so long as the great Harry Douglas is playing, the Bucs and that effective Tampa-2 zone is just helpless.  Someone fire Greg Schiano and Bill Sheridan NOW.  I mean, Schiano Happens is one thing, but this was ridiculous.
• Two bad pass defenses did battle in Washington as well, but the Native American Slurs prevailed in one of the wildest games you'll ever watch.  The Redskins managed to knock Jay Cutler out of the game and put the game plan in the hands of Josh McCown...and the Bears put up 41 anyway.  WTF?!  And that still wasn't enough because any time Robert Griffin and Alfred Morris and Roy Helu wanted yards on the ground, they took them, and Griffin even took some deep throws since he had the time.  And they weren't the best players on the field; that would be Washington TE Jordan Reed, who was THE SHIT.  (That's not to be confused with "The Drizzling Shits," which would come on Monday night.)  Chicago won't have success with McCown going forward because he won't face the Skins anymore.  RG3 may not have success like this because he won't be facing the Bears, but I have the feeling that he's still going to get better and better as the season goes.
• Dallas's win over Philadelphia was not surprising considering the now nine-game home losing streak for the Eagles, but it was surprising in how it happened.  Both teams stifled each other's pass offense by blitzing the QBs out of any comfort zone they could hope for, but only Tony Romo adjusted in the 2nd half and delivered quicker throws.  Nick Foles could not pull the trigger and the Iggles offense stalled as Shady McCoy couldn't get going.  Foles got knocked out in the 4th quarter, leaving former USC prodigy Matt Barkley to try to lead the comeback.  Two INTs later, the game was over.  Despite that, I actually liked Barkley.  His arm is NFL strong, and he wasn't afraid of any throw, which is why he got picked off twice (three times, actually, but one didn't count due to penalty.)  If Michael Vick isn't ready to go in the next game against the Giants, I think I'd rather see Barkley get a shot.  I know what Foles can do, and it's not much.
• It took Rob Gronkowski's return as all-world receiver to even out the offenses in New York, and the Patriots still couldn't get the win.  The Jets behind Geno Smith are actually averaging more yards per throw than Tom Brady and the Pats, and I mean a lot more, 7.8 to 6.2.  So Gang Green may have had an easy win in regulation if Gronk had not come back.  New England somehow let Geno lead the Jets into the lead after taking a 21-10 halftime lead on New York.  The defensive injuries for the Pats caught up to them, and Brady assisted by throwing a Pick-6.  That strange penalty in overtime helped the Jets win by erasing a missed FG attempt and letting them keep the ball and drive for another FG try, which they made.  A Pats player on special teams tried to block his own guy into the line, which is not just illegal, but apparently something the Pats have done before.  It's certainly a crazy way to lose a game, but considering what Bill Belichick has done to try to win games before, it's not a shock.
• This is how Miami returns from a bye week??  A Ryan Tannehill Pick-6 on the opening drive, a terrible 2nd pick in the end zone, terrible tackling, missed FGs, no running game until it was too late, bad pass defense letting Thad Lewis continue his star turn...and with all that, they took the lead on Buffalo with two Brandon Gibson TD catches.  But the Dolphins couldn't hold on because the offensive line, which has failed to protect Tannehill all year, finally cracked in the 4th quarter.  I still don't know what to think of the Bills except to say that Lewis I guess isn't terrible and that they can fuck up any team with a bad O-line.  As for Miami, they're now down to 3-3 going into their first showdown with New England, and they will not pull the upset and contend for the AFC East title if they don't figure out how to pass block.  Oh look, they traded for Bryant McKinnie to shore up the line.  Sweetpea the Stripper will be happy to hear that.
• It's nothing but piling on for me to talk about how unimpressive St. Louis looks behind top draft pick and Future of the Franchise Sam Bradford because he won't play anymore this year thanks to an ACL injury.  So I'll just look down the bench at Kellen Clemens, chuckle, and move away from the Rams.  So, how about those Panthers, huh?  Yeah, I don't trust them either, but this was two straight winnable games that they won handily, which is way more consistent than Cam Newton has been the last two years.  He almost didn't miss a throw.  Chico Rivera's defense even looks solid, if you ignore the fact that they just played Matt Cassel and Sam Bradford.  They have that shutout over Eli Manning, too, so maybe they're worth keeping an eye on.  They'd love to play a team with a star defensive end throwing punches and getting ejected and a cornerback talking shit to Steve Smith and getting him fired up, but they don't draw Chris Long and Janoris Jenkins every week.
• It was a catfight in the Motor City, and the Bengals prevailed over the Lions despite getting set ablaze by Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson.  Megatron harkened back to the Madden '99 version of Randy Moss, who could catch a TD pass while being covered by four defenders.  He helped Stafford break Cincinnati's string of holding passers under 300 yards.  But in maybe the best wide receiver téte-a-téte you'll see, A.J. Green kept up with Megatron, and they both put up 155 yards and a TD.  Usually, Cincy falls in a shootout like this because Andy Dalton hasn't been able to find his other receivers and put together a complete game to match the other QB, but he's been much better this year.  The Bengals jumped to 9th in passing yards per game with this performance, and it was as much about Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert and Marvin Jones as it was about Green, and that makes the Bengals very intriguing going forward.  Detroit shouldn't be ashamed of this loss.  They didn't commit a dumb penalty and give it away.  They did have a crappy punt set the Bengals up for the game-winning drive, but you can always find another punter.
• Jacksonville's so bad on defense, even running came easy for San Diego.  Getting operated on by Philip Rivers like you're in the hospital wasn't at all surprising, it was giving up 100 yards to Ryan Mathews in the meanwhile.  Finally, a game felt like a lock and it actually was.  I think you're going to have to keep investing in the Jaguars to go down SU and ATS as the surest bet out there right now.  And next up for them is the 49ers in Great Britain.  Oh man.
• Speaking of the Niners, they suffocated the Titans in Nashville slowly and firmly.  Colin Kaepernick is no Kurt Warner or Brett Favre, so any attempt Tennessee made to Bounty him came up empty as he eluded contact on most of his eleven rushes.  He was just too quick.  San Francisco was able to drain the clock by running effectively, and Jake Locker didn't appear to be fully healthy, so when he finally got the ball, he didn't have the juice to lead the comeback.  San Fran's still not lighting it up in the air, but they did locate the missing Anquan Boldin at least.
• Case Keenum came so close to leading the upset win.  So close.  But Kansas City remains undefeated, despite only beating the Houston Toxins by one point, despite throwing no TD passes for the third straight game, despite giving up 271 yards in the air to a kid in his first start.  I'm still not impressed by KC's Novocaine offense.  And as sturdy a runner as Jamaal Charles is, they almost choked up the game in the 4th by going for a TD run on 4th-and-goal instead of just taking the FG and making Keenum have to drive for a TD to win.  They got stuffed, but they smothered Keenum's comeback attempt with furious blitz packages that saved their bacon.  That said, Jay and I almost lost the pick on that last sack and fumble at the Toxins 1-yard line because the recovery happened to occur as an offensive lineman was diving for the ball, resulting in the ball being down by contact.  The Chiefs could have rolled into the end zone for the cheapest backdoor cover ever.  How'd Keenum look?  Honestly, I liked his decision making and accuracy.  Like Barkley in Philly, I think I'd give him the job and see what he's got.
• Here's my big analysis of the Browns-Packers game:  Wow, does Brandon Weeden suck.  Wow, that Aaron Rodgers is fuckin' awesome.  Wow, I should never take Cleveland to cover when Weeden is starting.  I'll let Jason talk about how strange it is to see Green Bay winning games by primarily running.  They're now sixth in rushing yards per game.  Astounding.
• In the "Some Things Never Change" department, Pittsburgh and Baltimore played a physical game with not much scoring that looked painful with every hit.  There's something comforting about that.  Pittsburgh pulled it out because Baltimore couldn't figure out how to move the ball until late in the 4th quarter to tie it up, then they let the Steelers have the last possession.  Joe Flacco got a delay-of-game penalty after a timeout at one point, illustrating their issues.  I don't know if Ray Rice is hurt or what, but he sucks right now.  That 2.77 yards per rush that he took into the game was well-earned.  And Le'Veon Bell's preseason hype as the new Steelers lead back looked to also be well-earned, as he carried the load well in this war.  I did take notice of Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley still trying to insert new wrinkles into the familiar Pittsburgh game plan, an end-around here, two Wildcat plays in a row where Ben Roethlisberger was a slot receiver there.  Haley's still a boob.  And you had to laugh at Ravens LB Elvis Dumervil on the same drive getting penalized for dragging Roethlisberger down by the facemask and later for blindsiding him after the ball was long out of his hands.  I know Pittsburgh and Baltimore are bitter rivals, but damn.  You'd think Big Ben raped Dumervil's sister in a bathroom or something.
• That scene in Indianapolis Sunday night was a major moment.  Not just the fan greeting for Peyton Manning and the reciprocating gestures back from him, but the actual game playing out the way it did.  Maybe I see what I want to see due to my biases, but I could have sworn I saw Peyton press and try to make long throws that require accuracy and arm strength as the game got later and the Colts lead grew, and of course the throws mostly didn't succeed since Peyton no longer has the arm strength to make those throws.  He had a two-pass TD drive for the first score that was beautiful because he wasn't pressing and he took the long throws that were there for him.  He sure looked like he was forcing it later in the game.  Maybe it was because Andrew Luck responded to the moment by making great throws and making Peyton feel like he had to engage in a duel.  But what Peyton didn't realize in the playoffs last year and in this game is that he really needs to stop trying to make those deep throws into tight coverage.  There are just some things he cannot do.  The Colts should be praised for inspired efforts by their defense as a whole and by the offensive line in addition to Luck.  What a night for them.  Von Miller was invisible in his return for Denver.  So was Wes Welker, whose incisive short routes were abandoned as Peyton kept bombing away looking for game-changing plays that weren't there.  And yet Denver had a chance to win thanks to Trent Richardson's fumbling problems, meaning Jim Irsay shouldn't get too proud of his club just yet.  They have that issue as well as the season-ending injury to Reggie Wayne with which to deal.
• And now Monday night bringing us the opposite of Jordan Reed being the shit:  It was Vikings QB Josh Freeman who was THE DRIZZLING SHITS.  My God, was he Charles Barkley-style turrible.  His throws weren't just a little off, they were five or ten yards away from the nearest receiver consistently.  The final line:  20-53-190 yards, one INT.  No Minnesota points from offense at all versus an 0-6 team.  And the excuses started from various talking heads almost immediately, saying he wasn't ready to start yet and it's all coach Leslie Frazier's fault for throwing him out there.  Hello, Freeman's been really bad for about two years now.  That's not Frazier's fault.  This should have been 50-0.  The Giants had easily the best pass blocking they've had all year, and Eli Manning would have had more completions if Hakeem Nicks wasn't trying to star in a movie titled "Stone Hands."  Eli's play-action throws were beating the Vikings defensive backs even without a run game to scare them.  Adrian Peterson didn't show up for this game either.  Both pass rushes brought pain but Eli responded much better than Freeman.  And that's with Eli throwing up some stupid passes that should have been picked off.  All I could Tweet when this one was over was "Worst. Game. Ever."  Exaggerating a little, but seriously, both these teams suck.

Week 7 Records--Dre 9-6, .600; Jay 6-9, .400
YTD Records--Dre 51-54-2, .486; Jay 54-51-2, .514

2013 Week #7

It's going to be another one of those weeks, as Jason and I disagree on nine games Sunday and Monday.  We actually have a reason to watch that dreadful Monday night game, as it may decide who wins the week.  Here are our selections for Week 7:

Fav	Spread	Dog	Final		Dre	Jay
	Thu. Nite
Sea (5-1)	6	ARIZ (3-3)	Sea 34-22		Ariz	Ariz
	Sunday
ATL (1-4)	6	TB (0-5)			TB	TB
Chi (4-2)	1	WASH (1-4)			Wash	Wash
PHI (3-3)	2½	Dal (3-3)			Dal	Phi
NE (5-1)	3½	NYJ (3-3)			NY	NE
MIA (3-2)	7	Buf (2-4)			Mia	Buf
CAR (2-3)	7	StL (3-3)			Car	StL
DET (4-2)	1	Cin (4-2)			Cin	Det
SD (3-3)	9½	JACK (0-6)			SD	Jack
SF (4-2)	3	TENN (3-3)			Tenn	SF
KC (6-0)	6½	Hou (2-4)			Hou	Hou
GB (3-2)	10	Cle (3-3)			Cle	GB
PIT (1-4)	1	Bal (3-3)			Pit	Pit
	Sun. Nite
Den (6-0)	6	IND (4-2)			Den	Den
	Mon. Nite
NYG (0-6)	3½	Min (1-4)			NY	Min

All of our thoughts and observations can be heard starting at 10P Central on our podcast:  blogtalkradio.com/inmuchlessdetail

2013 Week 6: What I Learned

• Slowly chipping away...slowly chipping away.  If I had the Rock's confidence, I could pull out one of his old promos and talk shit to Jason.  "The clock's ticking.  Tick tock.  Tick tock."
• I talked about Chicago's problems stopping the run on this past Saturday's podcast.  How they could let the Giants' Brandon Jacobs run over them like a car over a kitty cat is astounding.  They also slipped into their familiar version of the Cover-0, where a safety forgets his assignment and a receiver is wide open.  I hope the Bears don't think they can now pass rush based on their Thursday night battering of Eli Manning and the G-Men, because they can't.  That's just how bad the Giants pass block.  And it results in throws so bad that Eli almost moved into #bencheli territory.  He got fucked by his tight end having no hands on that last pick, but Eli's decision making is certainly a major problem that he must overcome before New York wins a game.  And both teams had to blitz like crazy to create pressure, which is a sure sign of desperation.
• Strange game in Baltimore, where Green Bay had to find totally unfamiliar ways to win due to injuries.  No Clay Matthews on defense meant they had to blitz an interchangeable white linebacker, A.J. Hawk, and that worked for a while.  Losing WRs James Jones and Randall Cobb meant that Aaron Rodgers, when he had time to throw, had to rely on JerMichael Finley, always inconsistent, and Jarrett Boykin, who had stone hands.  But the very good Packer run blocking allowed a play action fake to open up the only decent receiver left, Jordy Nelson, for a home run TD that ultimately was the game-winner.  That, boys and girls, is why running is important, even to offenses that love to throw.  I'm still a little dizzy over what Joe Flacco and the Ravens were trying to do.  There was no running room all day, yet they still tried to run on 4th-and-goal instead of kicking a FG.  Of course, they got stuffed.  And the pass game plan seemed to be, a few long bombs, and if they don't work, check down and pray.  Coordinator Jim Caldwell won a title with these guys last year, and I'm still not convinced that he knows what the hell he's doing.
• Tampa Bay U. let Nick Foles dissect them, and the Eagles came away with a road win without their star QB Michael Vick.  I can be a loony conspiracy theorist sometimes, so I was wondering if Riley Cooper making huge plays for Philadelphia was the result of a faulty defensive scheme by the Buccaneers or if it was the result of a non-black throwing the ball for Philly.  Is Cooper actually useful and being ignored by Vick, or is TBU that bad?  Well, Deion Sanders talked about the Tampa defensive scheme on NFL Network's recap show, and he made sense for a change.  He observed CB Darrelle Revis peeling off underneath as part of the Tampa-2 coverage and he opined that it's a waste of Revis's skillz to make him just a cog in a Cover-2 scheme instead of the shutdown CB he was supposedly brought in to be.  They could have used a shutdown corner in this one, whether to stop Cooper or DeSean Jackson.
• If Pittsburgh had not come off a bye to stop a rookie QB who likes to turn the ball over, then they could have just called it a season and not played any more games.  But they picked off Geno Smith twice and put the Jets away as they should have.  Prideful veterans off to a slow start have used opportunities like this to build big comeback seasons.  I'm just sayin'.
• Only ten carries for Adrian Peterson?  I guess he wasn't the only one whose head wasn't in the game.  Yeah, the whole Vikings team looked mentally out of it, and they may have lost big to Carolina even if AP got his normal workload, but I'm not letting the coaching staff off the hook.  Peterson says he's ready to play, use his ass.  If he doesn't look like he's all there, yank him immediately and give yourself a chance to work other guys in so they may establish themselves.  Playing it halfway like this guaranteed Minnesota a loss.  And why is Josh Freeman rewarded with the starting QB gig after this outing?  Can you really judge Matt Cassel or anyone for their performance in this disaster?
• In Kansas City, two teams tried to blitz each other to death and succeeded.  Really.  I think Terrelle Pryor and Alex Smith are both dead.  The difference was, Pryor had no help from his backs or receivers and cracked in the 2nd half, throwing up horrible interceptions when he wasn't being sacked 10 times.  Smith was able to use Jamaal Charles to ease the pressure.  I still don't like how KC wins, even though they haven't lost all year.  They got shut out for the first 29 minutes by the Oakland Fucking Raiders.  That's unacceptable.  The first real defense the Chiefs run into, they might get blanked for the whole game.
• Houston Toxins, indeed.  We'll have to start printing T-shirts with some of these sayings and slogans we're coming up with, because how perfect for that team right now is the hashtag "#houstontoxins"?  The St. Louis Rams rocked the Houston Texans from start to finish.  What kind of team do you have when you let your stud RB Arian Foster do work and then back him up with a timid QB in Matt Schaub who refused to take chances with risky throws because he was so scared of tossing another INT?  And then he gets hurt and T.J. Yates comes in and says, "Hey!  We haven't thrown a Pick-6 yet!  I can do that!"  If this isn't rock bottom for them, I don't know what is.  That said, with all that talent, rock bottom might make them bounce back and go on a run.  Time will tell.
• I'm about sick of random black QBs with almost no experience leading the Buffalo Bills to relevance.  If it ain't E.J. Manuel, it's Thad Lewis.  Maybe Marvin Lewis knows that he's a distant relative and took it easy on him, but the fact is, Cincinnati held a 24-10 4th quarter lead in Buffalo and couldn't hold off the Bills from tying and forcing OT.  Where the hell was the Bengal pass rush?  At least Andy Dalton and the Cincy offense responded to the early Thad Lewis barrage, or else they might have lost.  It's not playing down to the competition for the whole game, but it's doing it for the last ten minutes, and that's about as bad.
• Hmmm, Calvin Johnson's hobbled, Nate Burleson's training for the pizza catch in the next Olympiad, Ryan Broyles and Brandon Pettigrew are busy underperforming, it makes total sense that Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions survived in Cleveland by finding that end zone master, that professor of TD catches...Justin Joseph Fauria!  WHO???  Yeah, The Justin Joseph Fauria.  He caught 3 TDs to lead the Lions to an eventual victory over the feisty Browns.  And how did the Browns fall off after hanging in the game in the 1st half?  Well, remember why I advocated to get rid of the Brown Fever?  That's right, Weeden's gonna Weeden.  Brandon Weeden can only keep up his impersonation of an NFL quarterback for so long, then he starts throwing the worst INTs you'll ever see.  Underhanded, in the air for about 45 seconds, while being pulled to the ground so he's not seeing his target...as wrong a decision as can get.  Thanks, Brandon.  We know you're good for that every game, and that's why we're swearing off the Brown Fever.
• Weeden's ridiculous picks can be rivaled by Ryan Fitzpatrick, and that's why he's no longer a Bill after they signed him to a long-term deal.  As hard as Tennessee hits and competes, they can be in any game with anybody, but Fitzpatrick can cough it up to anybody too, so the Titans were able to cover the number in Seattle but not pull the big upset despite leading at halftime.  They had a big assist in covering from the whole jacked-up Seahawks placekicker situation.  Their normal kicker Steven Hauschka got his nose rearranged on a kickoff, so the punter had to try a FG at the end of the 1st half, and he was so slow approaching the ball after the snap that the Titans were about to block the kick.  So the holder pulled the ball back and got stripped by Zack Brown, and Jason McCourty scooped it up and ran for a long TD.  I liked Seattle scoring the first TD down 3-0 in the 2nd quarter by running Marshawn "Beast Mode" Lynch on 4th down.  Coach Pete Carroll and coordinator Darrell Bevell know their strengths, and that's why they rode Lynch in the 2nd half, running and receiving.
• There was never a chance Denver was covering that ridiculous spread against Jacksonville.  Never ever ever.  That was Jacksonville's Super Bowl.  Denver got the best effort of every single Jaguar and still beat them by 16 because the Jaguars are terrible.  But 26??  Never.  That was the lock of the week straight up (Denver) and ATS (Jacksonville).  You may never see the Jags rush the passer with that much effort again, and Maurice Jones-Drew even showed up for the contest.  How many Pick-6s do you expect ever again from Paul Posluszny?  I may not pick the Jags again this year because that was their best possible effort by a mile.
• I counted the number of drops by Patriots receivers against the Saints, for those who still think Tom Brady is no good or that New Orleans has a good defense now.  Two drops in the 1st quarter, two in the 2nd, two in the 3rd, five (!) in the 4th.  They still beat the Saints by throwing a TD with five seconds left in a situation where a TD was the only score that could have won.  Hear me now:  The Saints D still sucks.  New England may have won by 20 if their receivers had hands.  Aaron Dobson caught spectacular passes and dropped the routine ones, meaning he would fit perfectly in spring training for the White Sox.  Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, TEs whose names I'm not going to try to type...you name it, they all dropped passes that were very catchable.  The Saints had a hell of a time finding an offensive rhythm because the Patriots pass coverage shut down Jimmy Graham, leaving Drew Brees nothing but checkdowns and screens until the "Holy Shit!" throw to Kenny Stills in the 4th on 3rd-and-20 to give NO the lead.  But in the end, Brady came out on top.  Jason and I talked about how the Saints D ranked so high in points allowed, and I observed that one of those games was against Atlanta, who loved to rip up and down the field eating up yardage until the red zone, where Matty Ice refused to make the TD throw.  That thing Brady did with 5 seconds left?  That, that was the throw Matty Ice can't make.  That was the throw champions make.
• Break out the milk cartons because I'm searching for the best possession WR in the game, Anquan Boldin.  San Francisco almost lost the game, much less the cover, against Arizona because Colin Kaepernick is having trouble locating open receivers.  If you're counting on TE Vernon Davis going for 180 yards and 2 TDs every game, you're going to be really sad.  I call Jason out when he wins lucky picks, so he's got every right to call me on this one.  There's no way the 49ers should have covered the number after trailing early giving up a long TD to a clearly gimpy Larry Fitzgerald and struggling in the passing game so much.  Of course Interception Santa came to the rescue, as did Fitz, who fumbled as Arizona was going into the red zone down 22-20 in the 3rd.  SF needs some healthy weapons fast.
• Dwayne Harris was a killer in the return game for Dallas, resulting in another lucky win for me as the Cowboys arguably weren't as prolific on offense as the Redskins were on Sunday night.  Harris had a punt return for a TD and a kickoff return that set up another score to prop up a Dallas defense that suffered some serious injuries.  You could tell the Shanahan Boyz spent the bye week brainstorming and brewing up all kinds of formations and fancy plays, and some of them even worked.  Robert Griffin III continued to look like he was gaining his form back from last year.  Is that 5th gear that made him so special last year back?  It looked like it at times.  He kept drives alive by scrambling when Dallas was pressuring him.  One thing was missing, though:  RG3 wasn't taking deep shots with his arm downfield.  I don't have the All-22 film, so I don't know if it was because the Cowboys had great coverage or because Griffin just didn't think he had the open wideouts.  He needs his wheels to open up the long bombs if the Skins are to get back to last season's success.  He wasn't all that accurate, so maybe it was self-awareness that stopped him from airing it out.  Dallas looked especially impressive on the offensive line, but that's probably a result of playing Washington.
• Someone other than Robert Mathis has to rush the passer for Indianapolis, or else there will be more sleepy, slow deaths like what they suffered Monday in San Diego.  Philip Rivers had time to pick his way downfield when the Chargers blocked Mathis.  But more impressive was how the Bolts realized that they could maul the Colts in the run game, and they actually committed to it.  Ryan Mathews didn't have any burst, but he didn't need it because the Chargers kept moving the sticks methodically with Mathews and Danny Woodhead until Andrew Luck was out of time.  Luck also had some bad WR drops but couldn't overcome them like Tom Brady.  The San Diego blitz screwed with Luck's timing, and he and his receivers never got in sync.  For Indy, I think it was one of those games where everything just went wrong.  For San Diego, I can't say enough how surprised I was that they adjusted their game plan to take advantage of the awful Indy run D.  I'd be afraid of the Chargers if I have them on my schedule.

Week 6 Records--Dre 9-6, .600; Jay 7-8, .467
YTD Records--Dre 42-48-2, .467; Jay 48-42-2, .533

Week 6 ATS Recap: Felt Like Old Times

Back in the old days of IMLD, I would come out looking unbeatable in my picks for the noon (CST) slate of Sunday games, giving myself a clear lead that I would quickly give up to Dre in the late afternoon starts. We took that to the extreme this week, where I won every head to head matchup in the early games and then lost everything else. So I need to petition the NFL to stop playing games on Thursdays and any time other than Sunday at noon. Then I'd be golden.

Picks We Both Won (4)

• Steelers (+1) 19, Jets 6 - The Steeler defense we thought would show up in this contest did exactly that. Geno Smith looked like a confused rookie should in a zero touchdown, two interception performance. The Jets O that looked so great against Atlanta never got on track and strugg-a-ling Pittsburgh got their first win.
• Rams (+7½) 38, Toxins 13 - Bob Costas had it all wrong. The NFL team most in need of a name change isn't the Redskins, it's the Houston Texans. On the Week 6 podcast, I joked that the Texans were ATS poison right now and should change their name to the Toxins. I kinda like it. Matt (#benchschaub) Schaub managed to get hurt and miss out the chance to throw a pick six for a 5th straight game. Enter T.J. Yates, who decided to throw one of his own, an embarrassing 98-yarder that ended the Toxins chances of any sort of comeback. Houston is in full-on meltdown mode. This will be fun to watch.
• Lions (-1) 31, Browns 17 - The Browns went into halftime up 17-7 before Brandon Weeden remembered who he was and the Lions skated to an easy win. The Lion D giving up 395 yards to the Brown Fever does have to be a troubling indicator for a team fighting in a highly competitive NFC North.
• Seahawks (-13) 20, Texans 13 - The Titans were dominated in every statistical category, yet Seattle miscues kept the Titans, who were even leading at the half, around. The silly halftime TD score the Titans special teams scored on a botched FG attempt sure helped Dre and I on this pick, so we'll just say "thanks" and move on.

Picks We Both Lost (3)

• Packers (-1) 19, Ravens 17 - The Packer D was surprisingly effective, as it had been the week prior against Detroit. A late Raven surge fell short, and like Atlanta the Monday night before, the losing teams coaches were left again with a close loss after forsaking a FG attempt early and turning the ball over on downs. Ego doesn't win football games. Points do. The win was costly for the Packers, who left this game ridiculously thin at WR after Randall Cobb left injured and is expected to miss 8 weeks.
• Benglas 27, Bills (+6) 24 (OT) - I thought I had extolled the greatness of Thad Lewis enough, albeit sarcastically, on the podcast that we were safe from a crap result like this. The Bengals seem to handle prosperity like the Ravens do (which is not well for those keeping score).
• Chargers (+1) 19, Colts 9 - Was Andrew Luck caught looking ahead to his matchup against Peyton or something? The Colts offense managed to do nothing all day against the New-New England Patriots, who dusted off the powder blues and smoked the Colts in a battle of mostly field goals.

Picks Dre Won Head to Head (5)

• Bears 27, Giants (+7½) 21 - A Bear win here was never in doubt all of Thursday night, but Bear mistakes in a scoreless 4th quarter held their lead at 6 and won Dre the pick. He can now claim to have finally picked a Bear game correctly (in week 6 no less). Congrats!
• Broncos 35, Jaguars (+26) 19 - Dre may be on to something with his Justin Blackmon love. Blackmon has come back from suspension to turn out two monster games, and may actually help the Jags to win a game or two this season. Denver did their usual, playing fairly even in the first half and then romping in the second half.
• Patriots (-1) 30, Saints 27 - I'm completely lost as to what the Saints were doing at the end of this game. They had the Pats on their heels the entire second half, needed a great effort to overcome a 17-7 halftime deficit. Scoring the go-ahead TD with just over 3 minutes left, the Saints then allowed the Pats THREE more offensive drives. After a quick pick and three and out, you had to know that giving Brady a third chance late could only spell doom. The Saints went ultra conservative on offense, and played with no killer instinct to get a first down to put the game away.
• Niners (-10½) 32, Cardinals 20 - The Cards stayed competitive all through this game, only letting San Fran pull away late. Sure, my upset special didn't come through, but this wasn't quite the squoosh Dre thought it would be either. The Cards are a sneaky team, but still have a lot of work to do before they can hang with elite teams.
• Cowboys (-5½) 31, Redskins 16 - Well, RG3 looked much improved in this game, as the Skins outgained the Boys by almost 200 yards. Too bad Griffin wasn't out there tackling on special teams, as Dwayne Harris torched the Skins for a punt AND kick return each of over 80 yards. The Dallas win was not without a high price as DeMarco Murray and DeMarcus Ware both left injured and look to miss some time.

Picks I Won Head to Head (3)

• Eagles (-1) 31, Bucs 20 - Both Nick Foles and Mike Glennon moved their teams offenses well on the day, but the Eagles had too much LeSean McCoy late. Having a run game proved all the difference for Philly, as McCoy was able to run 6 minutes off the clock on a field goal drive to put the game out of reach. As we head in to the cold months, these teams that can run the ball will start to assert more dominance, and Philly has the guy to do it.
• Panthers (+1) 35, Vikings 10 - Carolina took advantage of a deflated Viking squad reeling from the death of Adrian Petersons 2 year old son. I didn't think Peterson should even be out on the field, and his presence made no difference to the outcome of the game in the end. Peterson came up 138 yards short of Dre's predicted 200 for the day, Matt Cassel looked like Matt Cassel, and the Panthers never let up on a team clearly primed for a beatdown. Enter Josh Freeman?
• Chiefs (-9½) 24, Raiders 7 - Turnovers made all the difference. The Oakland defense held the Chiefs down all day, but a late KC field goal and a prompt pick-6 put this game out of reach for the Raiders. This score was nowhere near as lopsided as the game overall. We may be seeing the chinks in the Chiefs armor.

2013 Week #6

Jay and I disagree on seven this week, not counting my Thursday night win where I break the Bears hex.  Here are our selections for Week 6:

Fav	Spread	Dog	Final		Dre	Jay
	Thu. Nite
CHI (3-2)	7½	NYG (0-5)	Chi 27-21		NY	Chi
	Sunday
GB (2-2)	1	BAL (3-2)			Bal	Bal
Phi (2-3)	1	TB (0-4)			TB	Phi
NYJ (3-2)	1	Pit (0-4)			Pit	Pit
MIN (1-3)	1	Car (1-3)			Min	Car
KC (5-0)	9½	Oak (2-3)			Oak	KC
HOU (2-3)	7½	StL (2-3)			StL	StL
Cin (3-2)	6	BUF (2-3)			Cin	Cin
Det (3-2)	1	CLE (3-2)			Det	Det
SEA (4-1)	13	Tenn (3-2)			Tenn	Tenn
DEN (5-0)	26	Jack (0-5)			Jack	Den
NE (4-1)	1	NO (5-0)			NE	NO
SF (3-2)	10½	Ariz (3-2)			SF	Ariz
	Sun. Nite
DAL (2-3)	5½	Wash (1-3)			Dal	Wash
	Mon. Nite
Ind (4-1)	1	SD (2-3)			Ind	Ind

All of our thoughts and observations will be available on the podcast starting at 10P Central at this website:  blogtalkradio.com/inmuchlessdetail

Week 5 ATS Recap: We Gotta Stop Picking the Texans and Jaguars!

Picks We Both Won (3)

• Chiefs (-2½) 26, Titans 17 - We knew better than to pile on Ryan Fitzpatrick too much, and thankfully so, as Fitzpatrick had the Titans up halfway through the 4th quarter.
• Cardinals (+1) 22, Panthers 6 - Cam Newton and Interception Santa delivered a lot of presents to the opposing defenses, combining for six picks (yet no pick-6's). In the end, the Cards defense and a late Santa touchdown pass sealed the deal, proving Dre's and my theory that the Carolina romp over the Giants should not be trusted. As we are aware of now, no win over the Giants should count for much of anything.
• Jets (+10½) 30, Falcons 28 - Losing this pick was never in doubt, as the Falcons have now reached Texans levels of distrust (though I keep picking Houston). If it is confirmed that the Falcons have lost WR Julio Jones for the season, there will be no coming back from the 1-4 hole Atlanta has dug for itself. Mike Smith's unhealthy obsession with going for it on 4th and short over the last few seasons might end up costing him his job in the long run.

Picks We Both Lost (2)

• Colts (+1) 34, Seahawks 28 - Something had to give here. The Seahawks road woes over the years went up against Andrew Luck's 4th quarter comeback prowess and Indy wound up on top. Seattle had notched road wins over Carolina and Houston, who both now appear to be less than stellar overall. The Colts now own impressive wins against NFC West powerhouses San Francisco and Seattle. I'm liking the Colts AFC South title prediction much better now (Houston is helping me out a lot on that).
• Raiders (+4½) 27, Chargers 17 - In the Special Sunday Night Edition of Thursday Night Football, the worst title for a sports broadcast in the history of fucking sports, Terelle Pryor and the Raiders jumped out to a 17-0 lead and never looked back. The Chargers looked very un-Patriotic in turning the ball over five times on the night, but realistically it wont matter much in the long run considering how hot the Broncos and Chefs are.

Picks Dre Won Head to Head (5)

• Browns (-3½) 37, Bills 24 - This cover came down to a ridiculous brain fart on the Bills defense allowing Brandon Effin Weeden to convert a 3rd and 18 at around the 5 minute mark with the Browns up 3. Jeff Tool, I mean Tuel, he who couldn't have hit Tina Turner if he was Ike, managed to then cough up a pick six to completely blow the game open in the last minute. In this game, the only losers were those who watched the entire game, such as myself.
• Packers (-7) 22, Lions 9 - Allow me to submit my worthless MVP ballot for one Megatron Johnson. Much as I thought the year Peyton Manning was missing from the Colts, the subtraction of just one player turned a complete NFL roster into shit. The Packers tried desperately to let the Lions hang around in this game, but without Johnson, the Lions offense was completely neutered. ATS advice: no Calvin Johnson, no picky the Lions.
• Eagles (+1) 36, Giants 21 - It might be time for me to give up on the Giants rallying behind Tom Coughlin straight to the Super Bowl prediction. Might be.
• Broncos 51, Cowboys (+7½) 48 - Holy fuck! Sure Dre won the pick, but what on Earth does it take to beat the Broncos? Dallas showed us: a QB to go out of his mind enough to go score for score with that Bronco offense. Easier said than done. With one late patented Tony Romo Mistake™, the Broncos were able to put the game winning cherry on top of a game that had 99 points scored and saw Romo gunning for the all time single game passing record. Just wow.
• Niners (-6) 34, Texans 3 - Considering I had the Texans missing the playoffs this year, I'm starting to wonder what's taking me so long to come around to just how awful this team and Matt Schaub are right now.

Picks I Won Head to Head (4)

• Bengals (PICK) 13, Patriots 6 - Tom Brady is a GREAT bad weather quarterback, so don't let the rain excuse seep into this argument. Brady was simply frustrated and contained the entire day by a very game Bengal defense, especially that D-line. Any time you force Brady to complete only 47% of his passes for a (Dre will be so proud of me) 5.2 yard-per-attempt average, you deserve to win. Maybe Dre is on to something with these Bengals. They have the defense to make waves in January.
• That's So Ravens (+2½) 26, Dolphins 23 - Check out these 2013 Ravens:
• Get crushed by Denver
• Follow that up by barely beating the Browns in the first game in Baltimore after winning the Super Bowl. Get booed by home fans.
• Destroy the Texans
• Take all that regained swagger to Buffalo and promptly shit the bed
• So, of course, the Ravens would head to hot-shit Miami and lose, right? There's a reason why we have the saying "That's So Ravens!"
• Saints (PICK) 26, Bears 18 - The Saints are playing on another level right now, especially beyond that of a slightly better than average Bear squad. Drew Brees didn't care about never winning in Chicago. Now he's done it, so there's a great stat you wont have to hear any more.
• Rams (-11½) 34, Jaguars 20 - I'm OK picking the Texans as long as Dre keeps picking the Jags!

Dre 8-6
Jason 7-7

Also, kudos to Dre and I for nailing the Josh Freeman to the Vikings move. It's come up in the podcast and during the VIP AfterShow of the podcast. As President and Sole Member of the Josh Freeman Fan Club, I say good luck to Mr. Freeman in his new home away from the soon to be fired Greg Schiano.

2013 Week #5

A big week for us head-to-head, as we differ on eight of the 13 remaining games after the Thursday night ugliness.  Here is Week 5 for your viewing pleasure:

Fav	Spread	Dog	Final		Dre	Jay
	Thu. Nite
CLE (2-2)	3½	Buf (2-2)	Cle 37-24		Cle	Buf
	Sunday
CIN (2-2)	Pk	NE (4-0)			NE	Cin
GB (1-2)	7	Det (3-1)			GB	Det
Sea (4-0)	1	IND (3-1)			Sea	Sea
MIA (3-1)	2½	Bal (2-2)			Mia	Bal
CHI (3-1)	Pk	NO (4-0)			Chi	NO
NYG (0-4)	1	Phi (1-3)			Phi	NY
KC (4-0)	2½	TENN (3-1)			KC	KC
STL (1-3)	11½	Jack (0-4)			Jack	StL
Car (1-2)	1	ARIZ (2-2)			Ariz	Ariz
Den (4-0)	7½	DAL (2-2)			Dal	Den
	Sun. Nite
SF (2-2)	6	Hou (2-2)			SF	Hou
SD (2-2)	4½	OAK (1-3)			SD	SD
	Mon. Nite
ATL (1-3)	10½	NYJ (2-2)			NY	NY

All of our thoughts and observations will be on the podcast starting right now at blogtalkradio.com/inmuchlessdetail.

2013 Week 4: What I Learned

• My first winning week of the year...and Jason had the same record.  Shit.
• I hate to call it a major factor in the game, but I had a bad feeling that my upset Rams pick over the 49ers was going to go sideways when I saw that St. Louis was deactivating RB Isaiah Pead for the game.  If I've learned one thing about the Rams this season besides how little they defend DeMarco Murray, it's that their best RB on the roster by far is Pead.  Not that he's headed to Canton, but he's a notch above Daryl Richardson and Benny Cunningham despite having the same pedestrian numbers.  The Rams came out hungry on defense and looked like they were going to give SF all they could handle, but Sam Bradford started throwing the ball awfully, and the Rams kept leaving Anquan Boldin completely uncovered, and Frank Gore gashed them in the run game, and the more talented team took over.  It's always bad news when you have to rely on Bradford throwing deep accurately to pull out a win. 
• The numbers say it all for why Buffalo beat Baltimore.  Both teams would have loved to get the early lead and carefully run out the clock, but Buffalo wound up with a 20-7 halftime lead, so they got to run the ball and play keepaway.  So the Ravens use Ray Rice in a way you can't use him if you expect to win.  Rice rushed 5 times for 17 yards while Joe Flacco threw 50 passes and got picked off 5 times, not to mention sacked 4 times.  Get the lead, let your pass rushers disrupt the QB, create insanity and turnovers.  Baltimore can't let that happen if they want to defend their crown.
• I can't believe Interception Santa almost let a rookie step in and beat him, but thankfully for Jay and me, rookie's gonna rookie.  New QB Mike Glennon almost led Tampa Bay U. to its 1st win, but he threw a pick of his own to set up the shutout-busting score for Arizona in the 4th quarter.  Then the Cards bowed up on D and got the ball back a couple of times to take the lead and narrowly beat the Buccaneers.  It was reminiscent of TB's other home loss to New Orleans--compete, compete, compete, come up short at the end.  When they stop competing and start getting blown out, Greg Schiano should start checking out the market for his Tampa abode and sell immediately.
• Cue the Big Ben in London one-liners, and there were plenty of them to be sure, but his Steelers are still winless.  Easy to diagnose Pittsburgh right now--they cannot pass block on offense, they cannot generate turnovers on defense.  Hard to win like that.  Minnesota, meanwhile, needs to do what it takes to keep Matt Cassel as QB once Christian Ponder gets healthy.  Take all the negative connotations of Cassel's name from his less-than-inspiring stint in Kansas City and realize that his alternative in the Twin Cities is Ponder and let it sink in for a second.  How much more dangerous did the Vikings look on offense with Cassel throwing?  Greg Jennings woke up from a deep slumber to make plays at WR, and even more frightening, it may have helped open holes for Adrian Peterson to run through.  Uh oh.  So Leslie Frazier being Leslie Frazier, the Minnesota coach says the QB job is Ponder's when he returns.  WTF.
• I was right about the Giants-Chiefs game to an extent.  I said that Eli Manning and the Giants passing game should be much better because the G-Men were down three offensive linemen, which was a good thing because the replacements couldn't block any worse.  And they didn't block any worse.  They didn't block any better, though, and that ultimately cost them the game.  New York stayed even with Kansas City for a half because they played tight press coverage and stuffed the run and were trying to make Alex Smith beat them over the top, but Smith smartly kept taking what was available, no matter how short.  Eventually he got impatient and tried to jam a couple of throws into very tight coverage and got picked off.  But Eli and the Giants didn't make the Chiefs pay because the pass protection didn't give him time.  The lack of a run game and protection is just killing the Giants.  Eli's got no help out there.  Hakeem Nicks is dropping passes, the tight ends can't get open...Victor Cruz is the only guy trying to assist Eli, but he can't do it all.  And I think I may have figured out how to stop the Chiefs on offense:  All you gotta do is find linebackers who can cover and cut off those underneath routes.  Good luck.
• I described the Tampa Bay U. situation on the podcast as a tire fire, which means Jacksonville must be a towering inferno.  That's it.  I got nothing else about this Colts slaughter.
• Maybe this game is what the Houston Texans need to wake up and show some heart.  Maybe getting their hearts ripped out by Matt Schaub's third straight game throwing a Pick-6 will make them perform better out of sheer embarrassment, knowing the whole country's laughing at them.  Maybe it demoralizes them until coach Gary Kubiak desperately makes a move and installs T.J. Yates as QB.  Time will tell.  Until the moment of that Pick-6 late in the 4th quarter, the Texans were controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, they were stifling the Seattle Seahawks' deep-ball attempts, Schaub was playing fine...Houston had no fucking reason to lose this game.  They were better than Seattle for 50 minutes.  Maybe much better.  I'll say that there's another factor to the Seahawks' comeback that was just as equally vital as Schaub's fuck-up, and that was Russell Wilson's running out of the pocket.  They don't win without both.  Wilson was getting battered in the pocket and not getting time to throw, so he spent the 4th quarter and OT breaking contain and eating huge chunks of yardage.  It's as if he didn't want to do that unless it became obvious that he absolutely had to in order to win, and then he pulled it out and gashed the Texans.  It's still worrisome that Seattle struggles so on the road, but just like in Charlotte, a win's a win.
• A couple of CBs smothering star wideouts decided a couple of games in Week 4.  In this Battle of Ohio, Joe Haden>A.J. Green, and the Browns beat the Bengals.  Green could not get open to save his life.  Cincinnati scored 6 points.  Yep, they're related.  Brown Fever keeps bubbling up!
• Chicago lost to Detroit because one team's defensive line played great, and the other belonged to Chicago.  The Lions let Matt Forte loose one time, but outside of that, they were stout and were able to batter Jay Cutler into mistakes, including a big one on a blitz when he threw it up and let Louis Delmas run underneath for an interception.  I had been so impressed by the new Chicago O-linemen and their play against tough competition, but they finally had a flat effort, and it resulted in their first loss.  The Bears let Reggie Bush run through their D-line all day, and they couldn't get a hold of him.  It's hard enough to beat the Lions when you know Calvin Johnson is lurking on every play, but to let them run on you as well is asking for an L.  The Bears could use more intermediate options throwing, as it seemed Cutler could only go short to Forte or deep to the wideouts.  We'll have Starr and Michael from Football Fan Rush Radio on tonight's podcast to discuss this game as well as how the NFC North looks after this outcome.
• We knew the Titans would hand out the physicality versus the Jets, but in getting crushed, Gang Green handed out some pain as well.  On New York's first offensive drive, WR Stephen Hill got Bountied, and his afternoon was over.  The Jets kept trying to set world records for most penalties in a game and season while watching Tennessee QB Jake Locker light them up for three 1st-half TDs, but finally in the 3rd quarter, two Jets defenders had enough and squashed Locker after a throw, injuring his hip and taking him out of the game.  BountyJets?  All you need to know about New York is they let Ryan Fitzpatrick throw another long TD pass after that, so Locker wasn't the issue.  Oh, and Geno Smith has 11 turnovers in his first 4 games.  Almost makes you long for the Buttfumble.  Or not.
• Oakland was leading 14-3 and gashing that terrible Washington defense, and it looked like the Redskins were going to keep losing in perpetuity, but luckily for them, Flynn's gonna Flynn.  That's Raiders QB Matt Flynn, starting for the injured Terrelle Pryor and proving that his coaches knew what the front offices didn't when they benched him in Seattle and Oakland despite the GMs signing him to start.  Flynn threw a Pick-6 with over eleven minutes left in the 2nd quarter to get Washington back in it, and the Raiders didn't score the rest of the day.  Flynn lost RB Darren McFadden to injury shortly before that, so maybe he was rattled, or maybe he's just not nearly as good as he was that one day in Green Bay when he set those records.  I think his coaches since then know the answer.  So did Jason and me when we made the pick.
• Well, Philadelphia was close to Denver early.  The Eagles were protecting Michael Vick in the pocket, and they were going toe-to-toe with the Broncos and Peyton Manning, and...fuck, I forgot to factor in apparently the best damn return man in football today, Trindon Holliday.  Talk about a momentum changer.  So, is Denver ever gonna lose or what?  And what about that huckster Chip Kelly?  His offense is a sham, right?
• We were dead on about Dallas not being able to handle prosperity, as the Cowboys were winning in San Diego 21-10 before gagging it up by allowing 20 unanswered.  The Chargers were spurred on by the new Tom Brady, of course, Philip Rivers, who went 35-42-401 with 3 TDs, and if you want to claim that Brady's going to have a game like that this year, go ahead, but he's not coming fucking close.  I'm overboard with the "New Brady" shit, yeah, but Rivers is ballin' right now, behind only Peyton and Brees for pocket passing awesomeness.
• Here's the other game where a CB decided the outcome by shutting down a stud WR.  Aqib Talib>Julio Jones when it mattered, and New England held on and beat Atlanta to send them to 1-3.  As hard as it is to say a guy was shut down even though he went over 100 yards receiving, it's true.  Talib defended Jones superbly in the 2nd half when the plays needed to be made.  One wonders if Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Pats took it personally when Atlanta opened the game in a no-huddle, like they were showing NE what they used to be able to do when their weapons were there.  Brady beat the Falcons with crisp, pinpoint throws, clearly his best game of the season, and I imagined him taunting Matt Ryan in his head after every big play, silently yelling, "Oh yeah?  Oh yeah??  Take THAT!"  But Brady had to love Kenbrell Thompkins, because the short, accurate throws were only going to be so effective.  It was the home runs to Thompkins that let the Pats put up the points they would need to win.  Atlanta desperately needs Roddy White to get healthy to loosen up the coverage hovering around Julio Jones.  Tony Gonzalez was awesome, catching 12 balls, but you can't rely on that every game.  The Falcons were so hungry for another weapon to emerge, but White and Harry Douglas weren't up to it, and in the end, another Falcons red zone rally to win the game fell short.  At least Matty Ice is getting lots of practice at it.
• This was the second game of the week where Jason gave me a couple of wins.  I've given him enough games this year, so he donated a couple to me.  Indy over the Jags was one, and New Orleans over Miami was the other.  This turned out exactly as I said.  The Dolphins couldn't hold off the Saints pass rush, Ryan Tannehill had no time to lead another comeback, and Drew Brees and the Saints rolled.  I said NO would send a message to the rest of the league to take them seriously.  Message received, boys.

Week 4 Records--Dre & Jay 9-6, .600
YTD Records--Dre 25-36-2, .410; Jay 34-27-2, .557