2012 Week #17

Apologies for not updating this past week, as Jason fell ill and I became tied up at home.  We both had observations too, but they will have to disappear.  It's now time for the final week of the regular season, and with it, the return of Coin, our third partner making picks for Week 17 only.  The theory is that Week 17 with players being sat down left and right is a coin flip, so why not flip a coin and see if that would be more accurate?  Remember kids, heads = favorites and tails = underdogs.  On to the picks!

Fav	Spread	Dog	Final		Dre	Jay	Coin
PIT (7-8)	11	Cle (5-10)			Pit	Pit	Pit
CIN (9-6)	1	Bal (10-5)			Cin	Bal	Bal
Hou (12-3)	7	IND (10-5)			Ind	Ind	Ind
TENN (5-10)	4	Jack (2-13)			Tenn	Tenn	Jack
NYG (8-7)	7	Phi (4-11)			NY	Phi	NY
BUF (5-10)	3½	NYJ (6-9)			Buf	NY	Buf
Chi (9-6)	3	DET (4-11)			Chi	Chi	Det
ATL (13-2)	3½	TB (6-9)			Atl	TB	TB
NO (7-8)	5	Car (6-9)			Car	NO	Car
DEN (12-3)	16	KC (2-13)			Den	Den	Den
SD (6-9)	10	Oak (4-11)			SD	SD	Oak
SF (10-4-1)	16½	Ariz (5-10)			Ariz	Ariz	Ariz
SEA (10-5)	10½	StL (7-7-1)			Sea	Sea	Sea
GB (11-4)	3½	MIN (9-6)			GB	GB	Min
NE (11-4)	10	Mia (7-8)			NE	NE	Mia
	Sun. Nite
WASH (9-6)	3½	Dal (8-7)			Wash	Dal	Wash

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• Don't know the name of the Cleveland starting QB, won't remember it after the game.  Yes, Pittsburgh is eliminated from playoff contention, and yes, Mike Wallace won't play, but the Browns are definitely much more shorthanded than the Steelers, and Pittsburgh may be mad and ready to take out some frustration.  Gotta go with the Steelers here.
• Cincinnati could meet Baltimore in the Wild Card round next weekend if they lose to the Ravens on Sunday and allow them to move up to the 3rd seed in the AFC.  Jason thinks the bumslayers in Cincy will go down.  They are locked in to the #6 slot, and Baltimore can still move up, so they have more motivation to play their guys.  Imagine Cincy losing A.J. Green to injury trying to win this meaningless game.  I waffled on this pick, but ultimately, I think Cincinnati is a team of emotional men who will want to prove something with this victory.  They will risk pissing off the Ravens and having to go to Baltimore to beat them again.
• Chuckstrong's back!  We'll take the Colts to put up a fight against the Texans in another AFC game where the home team is locked into position.  This time, we're willing to back the underdog because Houston is so overrated and because Indianapolis almost came back to cover against Houston a couple of weeks ago.  Surely, they can muster up the extra effort considering the inspiring return of their legendary longtime coach, Chuck Pagano.  Jason has a stat, too--Houston's never won at Indy, not even last year when the Colts were running Dan Orlovsky out there at quarterback.  Dan Orlovsky!
• Jason's through with Jacksonville the rest of the way, so he joins me for one week on the Tennessee bandwagon.  I'm happy to pick Jake Locker to put together one good game and get a home win to end the year.  A side note--Jesus, I'm glad I don't have to watch this game.
• Andy Reid and Michael Vick, reunited, and it feels so good.  Feels good to Jay anyway, as he will take the Eagles to get a big road win to close out their disappointing season.  Vick is showcasing himself for potential suitors, yes, but Jason just wants to bury the pathetic, choking-dog Giants once and for all, so he's picking Philly for the upset.  I can't believe New York can still make the playoffs, but I think every other NFC team has to lose (or tie) in order for the champs to make it, so I don't mind picking the G-Men to cover.  They get the gift of Vick on a platter, as he's sure to show the league what he does best at this stage of his career, which is hold on to the ball too long and get sacked, and also throw 99-yard interceptions.
• The other New York teams do battle in Buffalo, and we're going head-to-head on this pick, too.  Jason's got the Jets over the Bills because Total Fraud can turn in a good game now that they're out of the playoff race and it doesn't matter.  He picked the Jets to be "the most overhyped 7-9 team ever" before the season even started, so he needs Rex Ryan to put his (wife's) best foot forward and get this win.  I'm not even pretending to like Buffalo for any legit reason, I just want the Jets gone from my football world.  Go Bills.
• Chicago cannot lose a must-win game to a Detroit team that discovers new ways to lose.  Can they?  We're guessing that the Bears will find a way to accomplish this first part of their playoff plan.  But as stupid as the Lions are, I want to take this moment to shout down the various football pundits who have verbalized Matthew Stafford as "having a bad season."  The passer rating is 79.2, which is very mediocre, I give you.  But that passing offense has been #1 for most of the season and is likely to finish #1.  Stafford himself has a 60% completion percentage and 4,695 yards.  The rating is so low because he only has 17 TD throws vs. 16 picks.  I'm sure he'd like to throw more TD passes, but his talent doesn't help much.  He's got the best WR in the game, but in the red zone, Megatron's covered up, and Stafford has nowhere else to go.  I can accept criticism of China Doll as tepid, lackluster, on the brink, or Jason's term, "slightly above average."  But he's been called bad in several different places, and bad is just incorrect.
• I like Atlanta over Tampa Bay in a game completely meaningless to Atlanta because they're walking around with a fucking huge chip on their shoulders from the criticism of their success as flukish and not indicative of their certain playoff collapse.  They're riled up enough that they'll probably rip the Buccaneers to shreds trying to secure a perfect home record, and the Bucs will let them because the players hate their college coaches and they're checked out.  Jason's getting cute, calling the Falcons for the win but the Bucs to cover the hook.
• I like the Panthers to keep their recent great offensive play going, making them a contender for the Houston Texans Memorial Pre-Season Hype team of 2013.  The Saints have to had quit now, right?  They're officially out of the playoffs, it's been a long year, there's nothing left to play for...the same things I cited the last couple of weeks, when they were still technically in the playoff hunt.  But Jason will go with New Orleans.  Maybe there's still some pride there and they don't want to finish under .500.
• There's a 16-point spread and it's not the biggest of the week?  Yep, must be Week 17.  We like Denver to wipe the field with Kansas City because Denver needs to win to keep its bye for next week and because Kansas City is so totally done, Jamaal Charles kicking serious ass and passing Jim Brown as the NFL's all-time leading rusher in yards per carry notwithstanding.
• Two words why we like San Diego by double digits over Oakland:  Terrelle Pryor.
• I admit that I'm not picking Arizona to win over San Francisco with my head.  I want Arizona to win because I want Seattle to take the NFC West, as I predicted before the season.  Yes, it's ridiculous, yes, it's selfish, no, I don't care.  Jason's not taking the Cardinals to win, of course, but he can't resist such a large number.  As for me, I can only say, go Brian Hoyer.  Jay's going to ship me a Hoyer jersey if he pulls out the straight-up victory, so I'll be the biggest Cardinals fan in the country for one day only.
• Naturally, we'll go with Seattle to do their part on the other end and destroy St. Louis.  The Seahawks are averaging so many points over the last few weeks, it makes it very hard to go against them when they only have to beat the Rams by 11 or more.  And, of course, they're playing in the Meat Grinder, which Jason and I should trademark.
• Green Bay needs to beat Minnesota to get the Bears into the playoffs, provided the Bears figure out how to beat the Lions.  But the Pack need to win for themselves as well, because they can take the #2 seed and a bye next week depending on how the NFC West shakes out.  So despite Purple Jesus and his amazing rushing season--an MVP effort by Jay's judgment, and I wouldn't argue--we like the Packers to air it out and light it up in the Twin Cities.
• New England's trying to move up in the AFC seeding wars, so they'll be plenty motivated against the Fish, plus they have to be motivated to put a better effort together after they sleepwalked through their game last week in Jacksonville.  The Pats should squoosh here.
• And of course, it's all about Sunday night for NFC East fans, with Bobby Three-Sticks prepared to lead his team to a perfect record after the bye and a division title.  Amazing that Washington could do that after Mike Shanahan declared that he was using the rest of the year to evaluate talent.  I'm not about to give him credit for that faux pas.  He fucked up, that's all, and his team's bailing his wrinkled ass out.  Good for them.  I'm taking the Skins after waffling on this pick as well.  I would not be surprised to see Tony Romo get it together and lead his Cowboys into DC and steal the division.  But to actually pick that to happen in a rabid environment in prime time, well, I don't believe in Romo quite like that.  Some wonder if Robert Griffin III will be his old self of a few weeks ago, considering how his hyperextended knee wasn't lending itself to many scrambles and option plays last week.  I say, complete gamesmanship by the Shanahan Boyz and RG3.  I bet he's running around and lighting it up against the Boys, just as he did on Thanksgiving.

2012 Week #16

Oh yeah, we're working our way down to the nitty gritty, the playoffs in only two short weeks!  We got you off to a nice start this week with the Falcons over the Lions.  Now let's see which of us can put together a full week's effort.  We're different on nine picks again, so lots of variety from which to choose.  On to this week's selections:

Fav	Spread	Dog	Final		Dre	Jay
	Sat. Nite
Atl (12-2)	3½	DET (4-10)	Atl 31-18		Atl	Atl
	Sunday
GB (10-4)	12½	Tenn (5-9)			Tenn	GB
CAR (5-9)	9½	Oak (4-10)			Car	Oak
MIA (6-8)	4½	Buf (5-9)			Mia	Mia
PIT (7-7)	3½	Cin (8-6)			Cin	Pit
NE (10-4)	14	JACK (2-12)			NE	NE
Ind (9-5)	7	KC (2-12)			Ind	Ind
DAL (8-6)	1	NO (6-8)			NO	Dal
Wash (8-6)	6½	PHI (4-10)			Wash	Phi
TB (6-8)	3	StL (6-7-1)			StL	TB
HOU (12-2)	9½	Min (8-6)			Min	Min
NYJ (5-9)	1	SD (5-9)			NY	SD
DEN (11-3)	13	Cle (5-9)			Den	Cle
NYG (8-6)	1	BAL (9-5)			NY	NY
Chi (8-6)	6	ARIZ (5-9)			Ariz	Chi
	Sun. Nite
SEA (9-5)	Pk	SF (10-3-1)			Sea	Sea

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• Our first of 15 this Sunday starts on the frozen tundra, which really will be frozen when the Titans visit the Packers.  The frigid conditions worry me when taking Tennessee to cover because so much of their offense is predicated on Chris Johnson breaking that one big run that loosens up the D for the rest of the day, and I don't know how the weather will affect him, if at all.  I'm still going to take the Titans because I like their general direction and because that's a lot of points.  Jason will take Green Bay in what he calls an "ugly squoosh," because he doesn't fully trust the Pack to put together a consistent game but he trusts them more than Tennessee.
• Guess that scintillating 15-0 victory inspired Jay to take the Raiders to cover against Carolina.  Or maybe it's the Panthers not exactly inspiring trust in covering that large number.  I'm giving the points not just because Carolina and Cam Newton seem to be putting it together, but because Oakland's coach Dennis Allen, in his infinite wisdom, said that he wants to use QB Terrelle Pryor in 3rd-down packages to see what he's got.  That sounds like disaster.  I think if Pryor had that much to offer the 4-10 Raiders, he would have found himself on the field by now.  Forcing him in like this just screams "Tebow Package," and we know how that worked in Gotham City.
• Uninspiring Miami hosting uninspiring Buffalo.  What to do?  We'll both give the points and take Miami because at least they seem to show up most Sundays.  Between home games in Toronto and injuries and lackluster play, don't the Bills have to have quit by now?
• I don't want to say that the Steelers have necessarily quit, but I'm writing them off as old and hurt and spiraling out of the playoff race.  The Bengals may be bumslayers, but Pittsburgh has played like bums the last two weeks, getting shellacked by San Diego and coughing it up in Big D.  I think CB Ike Taylor not being able to play has really damaged Pittsburgh, because the next-best player in the secondary may still be Troy Polamalu, and he's just a ball of late-arriving hair, jumping into every play long after the big yardage has already been gained.  They've been burned by Philip Rivers and Tony Romo, and now Andy Dalton and A.J. Green come into town, and I think they might feast.  Jason knows that the Steel need this win to stay in the playoff hunt, so he'll side with them over the bumslayers.  I admit that this would be a typical Cincinnati moment to come up lame when all seems in their favor, but I really don't believe in Pittsburgh right now.
• All-star New England travels to grade-school Jacksonville.  I wistfully remember the days when Brady & Belichick would go into some poor schmo's town and be 14 or 15-point favs and cover easily.  We anticipate a return to those days, coming off the big loss to San Francisco.  There's just no reason to pick Jacksonville to cover even though it's the largest spread of the week.
• Ditto Kansas City, who seems to have quit based on them going to Oakland and holding them to no touchdowns and deciding not to score at all.  As great as RB Jamaal Charles has been with no help, he's no Adrian Peterson.  Unless they have another murder/suicide to inspire them soon, Jason says they don't stand a chance.  Now, that said, I am scared of this big spread because Indianapolis seems to have fallen into the hero habit of trailing early and letting Andrew Luck lead them back late.  That doesn't inspire confidence to pick a team to win by more than a touchdown, but we're doing it anyway because, well, it's the Chiefs.
• Again, I am tempted to pick Dallas to get a big win in their playoff chase, and again, I decide to go against them.  They're a hard team to like in a close game even though they've made a habit of winning them lately.  You figure that one of these days, they're going to revert to being the stupid Cowboys and find a way to gag one up.  I'll pick this one against the Saints, who apparently haven't quit yet, to be the gag game.  Jason thinks the lock of the century is the over, like 62-59 crazy-type shit.  But we know how Jason's locks have done this year, so caveat emptor.
• Welcome back Robert Griffin III to the battlefield, as the people of the greater DC area hold one rosary for his melon and another for his sprained knee.  Watching Kirk Cousins run his offense and win might inspire Bobby Three-Sticks to show out in a big game for Washington's playoff hopes, so I'll take him over Philadelphia, and good luck trying to figure out which Eagles team will show up for the game.  But Jason will pick them to cover that spread, thinking maybe Andy Reid can lead his squad to one more big effort.
• Jas likes the Buccaneers over the Rams at home, well, just because.  I hate those picks where he doesn't have a reason because he usually wins.  Well, I've got a reason to go with St. Louis, and it's they're way more mature than Tampa and their college coaches.
• Call us Houston Haters if you wish, but we still don't believe in the Texans as a great team despite the great record.  Jason likes the Vikings to stay close and cover the big number, and I'll pick Minnesota to actually win the game.  Why not?  Apparently nobody's stopping Adrian Peterson the rest of the season as he grabs the single-season rushing record, and if he can run through average run defenses like Chicago and St. Louis with everyone keying on him, then Houston shouldn't be any different.  I think Houston's very beatable.
• In a struggle between two extremely beatable teams, San Diego and the New York Jets battle to decide which team wants to get its coach fired the quickest.  Despite Jason believing that the Jets are actually going to keep Rex Ryan after the season, he'll take the Chargers, although he really bounced back and forth with this pick.  Neither team is one of his favorites, but he'll be a Norv Turner fan for one day.  I'm picking the Jets simply because they're not playing Total Fraud, but if they were starting Jesus instead, I'd be all over the Bolts.
• I'm impressed with how thoroughly Peyton Manning has taken control of the Denver Broncos on-field product.  I think he'll keep the momentum going over the Browns knowing that Denver needs to keep winning in order to hold that 2nd AFC bye.  Jason's got that Brown Fever again this week in the altitude, because Denver has been up-and-down in covering huge spreads this year.
• I'm not thoroughly impressed with the way Eli Manning can hold one's attention with great football, then simply turn in a stinker like last week in Atlanta.  Nevertheless, it's him or Joe Flacco and the world's most uncoordinated offense, so I gotta side with Eli.  Jason concurs.  The Ravens appear to be in pure freefall.
• Speaking of which, the Chicago Bears are trying for the all-time "get your coach fired" streak as they attempt to become the first team since Prohibition to miss the playoffs after starting 8-1.  Jason's stat, not mine.  But he's still picking Chicago because that's how bad Arizona is.  Well, Chicago's so bad that I'm taking Arizona to win.  Why not?  They did it to Detroit when no one expected it, and Detroit isn't death spiraling quite like the Bears.  They're my team, but I don't see cohesion, execution, or imagination.
• The atmosphere for the Sunday night game should be an all-timer.  Just a fever pitch.  I'm imagining what a Seattle fan is doing all day to get amped up for a fight for the top of the division with the 49ers, and then he and his fellow fans take that alcohol or drug or whatever into the Meat Grinder, already with the rep as the loudest outdoor stadium in the NFL.  Man, I'd love to be there.  Seattle takes its 54-point average over its last two games to their house, and sitting on 6-0 at home (the only team undefeated at home besides the Falcons), we can't see San Fran pulling this one out.  I wonder why we got a true pick-em line for this one, which I haven't seen picking NFL games on covers.com maybe ever.  But whatever the reason, it felt great to have a true toss-up and not have to worry about getting a push on a 1-point line.  This game will definitively give us a true winner...unless they finish in a tie.  If that were to happen, I think the planet may stop turning on its axis.

Sat. Nite Falcons @ Lions

Atlanta had a message for all of us doubters last week versus the Giants, and that message was a big FUCK YOU, WE AREN'T JOKERS.  You know who seems like a team of jokers?  Anyone losing to the Arizona Cardinals, that's who.  The Detroit Lions just somehow lost to the Cardinals, and that's a big reason why they're 3 1/2-point home underdogs tonight.  They've earned that.  Jason and I can't think of a reason to put money on the Lions the way they're playing out the string.  No matter what we think of Atlanta, we know the chances are good that Detroit will turn in a shitty effort and find a way to embarrass themselves in front of the world.  We even like them by almost the same score.  Conquer your fear of the Falcons, realize that they're not playing a playoff game, and lay the points over the hapless Lions.  Jay says Falcons 31-20, and I'll simply tack on an extra score for the Dirty Birds.

My Pick:  Atlanta 34-20

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2012 Week 15: What I Learned

• Games in no detail:  Bengals-Eagles (evenly played for a while, then Philly went Philly), Buccaneers-Saints (when I said New Orleans wouldn't care and would lose, I meant the exact opposite), Vikings-Rams (when I said St. Louis could contain Adrian Peterson and get the win, I meant the exact opposite), Jaguars-Dolphins (when I said the Jags could strike early and...ah, fuck it), Lions-Cardinals (testing the limits of Detroit's ability to fuck up, and Detroit failed miserably), Panthers-Chargers (not just a lay-down by San Diego, but I lose in fantasy by two points with Danario Alexander giving me zero catches, so thanks, cocksuckers), Seahawks-Bills (Seattle over the Niners in the Grinder next week, lock it up), Chiefs-Raiders (yawn).
• Just as my picks were excruciating this week, so was watching Chicago slowly succumb to Green Bay and lose the division.  It would be one thing to get destroyed by the Pack on their home field, but the Bears rarely get destroyed by Green Bay, they just find ways to lose.  It's all falling apart in the Windy City, with players sniping at fans, fans and media demanding coaching changes after the 8-1 start, and the offense continuing to suck.  Look, I can only offer outsider opinions with no way to tell if they're even close to the issue, but I'm seeing a real dysfunction when Chicago has the football.  I see Jay Cutler looking for Brandon Marshall as the 1st through 6th option, and when he's taken away, Jay doesn't know what to do.  Maybe it's because he doesn't trust the other pass catchers, maybe it's because he doesn't trust himself.  And when he does decide to throw, another issue is how off-balance he seems to be, which is a product of poor fundamentals and footwork.  Many of his INTs are balls that sail way beyond the intended receiver, and Cutler will never be any good again until he quits doing that.  Green Bay is in a familiar position--when they get Roided-Up Troglodyte to lead the pass rush, that allows Aaron Rodgers to play under control, and that makes the Pack very dangerous.
• Giving up the booty to an inconsistent but potent Atlanta offense is one thing, but how the hell did the New York Giants manage to respond with zero points the entire day??  I can't even say that it was a particularly bad Eli Manning outing, the G-Men just never got it together as an offense.  More than a bad Eli day, it reminded me of when Denver came in to the Georgia Dome in Week 2 and Peyton seemed to be fooled by the Falcons coverage schemes.  Eli looked like he didn't expect DBs to be where they were at all.  Maybe Atlanta's found some secret method to trick anyone in the Manning family into turnovers.  They should sell that method to Bill Belichick just in case the Patriots have to play another Super Bowl against Eli.
• And when I said that the Redskins would go down to Brown Fever using their backup rookie QB, I completely dismissed Kirk Cousins and whatever ability he brought to the table.  Honestly, a lot of those plays looked like they were designed for Bobby Three-Sticks, but Cousins slid right in and made them work for himself, too.  Yeah, he didn't break any 60-yard runs, but Washington clearly uses a game plan to spread their plays in all directions no matter who's the QB.  Lots of play-action rollouts, lots of stretching the field deep, and that 1st TD throw to Leonard Hankerson was about as perfect a throw as it gets.  I guess what to learn is, the Skins are a big-time offensive threat regardless of who's under center, and the Shanahan Boyz are tickled pink with pride, I'm sure.
• Don't let the score fool you--Denver commanded that game in Baltimore from the moment they stepped off the plane.  It takes a full organizational commitment to beat Peyton Manning when he's on, and no one can argue that since Week 2, he's been on.  But the Ravens organization decided to get rid of their offensive coordinator before Week 15, and that is not the mark of full organizational commitment.  And boy, did that offense look uncoordinated.  It was raggedy, off-sync, just what you should expect.  And my heart actually hurt for Joe Flacco when he threw that pick-6 before halftime, because he got in a rhythm and was trying to get on the scoreboard, and he tried a little too hard and threw a bad pass.  The Broncos are a machine, just like the Colts were going into the playoffs every year, except this defense is better than any of those Indy defenses.  And Baltimore is freefalling.
• Of course Andrew Luck mounted a comeback for the Colts in Houston after the Texans built a lead, because that's what he does.  I expected Houston to build a lead in a game where Indy should have been stiff early because of the high stakes, but I thought Luck would lead the comeback and at least cover the spread.  What Houston did, and it was very logical, was kill Indy's hopes of a comeback by committing to the run and gashing that terrible Colts run D in the 4th quarter.  The reason that I didn't trust Houston to do that was because they had been underwhelming as a rush offense this season.  They ranked 8th coming into the game, and they were only averaging 4.1 yards per carry, and for the Texans, that was below expectations.  But it appears that coach Gary Kubiak has been keeping Arian Foster and the run game in reserve for when he really needs it, and he pulled it out in this one.  It's hard to know when the Texans can build an early lead because the passing game has been hit-or-miss, but if they do get a lead, even against Andrew Luck, they can hold it.
• I enjoyed the Pittsburgh-Dallas game as a football fan because it was an evenly-played, high-quality matchup with the whiff of desperation in the air because the losing team was going to find itself in deep shit in any playoff scenario.  The two QBs aren't thought of when the concept of the scrambling quarterback is mentioned, but in their own way, Ben Roethlisberger and Tony Romo are two of the best scrambling (and overall) QBs of their time.  They constantly extended plays with their feet, avoiding angry black guy after angry black guy like they were at a nightclub at 3A.M.  Pittsburgh may have lost because of Big Ben's overtime pick, but they led in regulation.  The Steelers couldn't put it away because they sorely missed Ike Taylor to lock down either Dez Bryant or Miles Austin, and they lacked the coverage linebackers to stick Jason Witten or DeMarco Murray out of the backfield.  I think age has finally caught up with Pittsburgh, and their season is done.  Dallas can always screw up their playoff hopes by playing stupid in the next two weeks, but having Dez Bryant still making plays is humongous, as is Murray finally being healthy and adding the run dimension.
• Sunday night was obviously mind-blowing for anyone who watched.  I was thisclose to going to sleep when San Francisco went up 31-3, but I managed to hold off Mr. Sandman while watching Tom Brady lead a ridiculous comeback.  The Niners had to be stunned at what was happening.  Not Colin Kaepernick, though.  He weathered the storm and didn't feel like a total failure when the Patriots made it 31-31.  He just took the ball and threw a quick curl to Michael Crabtree and much YAC later, SF was back on top for good.  I really liked the poise by Kaep in that situation.  The burning building was falling all around him, and he and Crabtree rescued the people anyway.  I learned that Coach Insane will have his offense (and special teams) ready to do anything to get a big win, and he probably feels a lot more confident with Kaepernick executing his mad plans than with Alex Smith.  And I learned that Brady and the Pats aren't afraid of any defense, but that every defense should be afraid of them.
• And all praise the Tennessee Titans, who put us out of our misery Monday and ended the New York Jets' hopes for another playoff berth this year.  Here's what you take out of this one:  whatever you think of Jake Locker, who clearly isn't very good yet, he played the hell out of that game and Total Fraud was about as bad as I can remember.  Yes, I know what I'm saying when I say that Locker played the hell out of that game and produced one touchdown of his own making (the other Titans score was Chris Johnson for a 93-yard sprint).  I'm taking Locker being bad right now into the equation.  He still played very hard, he tried to play smart, he stuck to Tennessee's obvious game plan of wearing out the Jets cornerbacks with perimeter throws and stretching the field horizontally so Johnson could better find holes...in short, he played like the veteran with playoff wins that every Jets fan tries to pretend that Mark Sanchez is.  And Sanchez plays like...well, like a total fraud who got those playoff wins on the backs of his once-stout defensive unit.  I'll miss the carnival that is Gang Green once Rex Ryan is fired and they try to develop a real QB.  I won't miss the ESPN coverage of it all.

Week 15 Records--Dre 5-11, .313; Jay 8-8, .500
YTD Records--Dre 110-108-6, .505; Jay 108-110-6, .495

Week 15 ATS Recap: Those Mayans Better Not Be Right

Here's to hoping theres some Mayans walking around on Saturday who have no idea what day it is.

Picks We Both Won (2) Seriously, fucking TWO?

• Raiders (-3) 15, Chiefs 0
• Titans (-1) 14, Jets 10 - Thankfully, the Jets season is over. It took 5 turnovers from Mark Sanchez for Rex Ryan to finally decide he's seen enough. So, of course, he names third-string Greg McElroy the starter over Tim Tebow. Wait, wha? Yup, in yet another show of no-confidence in Tebow, and a big middle finger to the management that brought Tebow in, Ryan is going with what he considers the guy who gives the Jets the best chance to win. That's not saying much for Tebow, because if anyone knows watching awful play at the QB position, it's Rex Ryan and the Jets. They've been watching it for four years now. Looks like this might be the end of Total Fraud. I'm crushed.

Picks We Both Lost (5)

• Bengals (-5½) 34, Eagles 13 - So we know full well that the Bengals only move is to beat really bad teams. So what do we do? We pick the Eagles. We earned this loss.
• Falcons (-1) 34, Giants 0 - I get the feeling that the Falcons were getting a little tired of all the negative press, as if being 11-2 can be a bad thing? Count Dre and I among the guilty, we weren't believing much in the Falcons, either. But in one major thrashing, Atlanta knocked the defending champs into third place in the NFC East and only need one more win to lock up home field. It was a nice performance, but the pressure doesn't start for the Falcons for several more weeks yet.
• Redskins (-1) 38, Browns 21 - When the Redskins flip Kirk Cousins for a ridiculously high draft pick, this will be the game that gets them the haul.
• Cardinals (+6) 38, Lions 10 - The only question I have after this game is: which coach gets fired the fastest? Jim Schwartz or Ken Whisenhunt? The Lions dominated the stat sheet, oh except for two pick-sixes on top of a third pick and a lost fumble on their way to inventing yet another way to lose.
• Niners (+4½) 41, Patriots 34 - For as much fun as we make of Jim Harbaugh, I'll throw this out there: Alex Smith couldn't have pulled this off. Colin Kaepernick torched the Pats for three first half touchdowns and had the Niners up 31-3 five minutes into the SECOND QUARTER. The Pats shrugged that off and came all the way back to tie the game at 31 before the Niners pulled away for good. Most teams would have folded up against the hard charging Pats, these relentless comebacks are just what they do, right? If this was a Super Bowl preview, then sign me up for the rematch!

Picks Dre Won Head to Head (3)

• Packers (-1) 21, Bears 13 - People can be down on the Bears offense, but it is what it's been all season. Once the Bear defense stopped scoring points, the team went in the shitter. If not for the Packers being careless with the ball late in the game, this would have been a rout.
• Broncos (-3) 34, Ravens 17 - Nothing is going right in Baltimore right now. The defense is exposed, the offense, and their QB, are definitely not "elite," and how sad is it that I feel better about the Cowboys being one of my Super Bowl teams and not the Ravens? Pretty damn sad, indeed.
• Seahawks (-4½) 50, Bills 17 - These Seahawks are on a path to give someone a rude awakening come playoff time. Really, who is going to want to play them?

Picks I Won Head to Head (6)

• Saints (-4) 41, Bucs 0 - Josh Freeman imploded here, capping off the Bucs collapse. Was this a potential playoff team a few weeks back?
• Vikings (+1) 36, Rams 22 - Reason #1 Adrian Peterson is most likely going to win the MVP this season: Christian Ponder is his QB and he's still running wild, when teams know that's ALL the Vikings can do.
• Dolphins (-8) 24, Jaguars 3 - It looks like the Jags got their two good games out of Chad Henne. Hope they enjoyed them!
• Texans (-10) 29, Colts 17 - A late, cheap Shayne Graham field goal picked me up the win here. End of story.
• Panthers (+3) 31, Chargers 7 - Looks like Dre's wish might come true! He wants Norv Turner shitcanned so that the Bears can hire him as offensive coordinator. Who knows, it could happen. Christmas IS next week....or is it?
• Cowboys (+1) 27, Steelers 24 (OT) - If Dallas wins out, they win the NFC East. Not bad for the Stupidest Team In Football, but being stupid means finding a way to screw it up, too!

2012 Week #15

Only three weeks to go in this regular season, and this week the schedule heats up with a crapload of good games, as well as a couple of tight picks between terrible teams.  But we pick 'em all!  Six games with one-point spreads, only three spreads of 6 or more.  And Jason and I differ on nine games!  This is gonna be fun...

Fav	Spread	Dog	Final		Dre	Jay
	Thu. Nite
Cin (7-6)	5½	PHI (4-9)	Cin 34-13		Phi	Phi
	Sunday
GB (9-4)	1	CHI (8-5)			GB	Chi
ATL (11-2)	1	NYG (8-5)			NY	NY
NO (5-8)	4	TB (6-7)			TB	NO
STL (6-6-1)	1	Min (7-6)			StL	Min
Wash (7-6)	1	CLE (5-8)			Cle	Cle
MIA (5-8)	8	Jack (2-11)			Jack	Mia
Den (10-3)	3	BAL (9-4)			Den	Bal
HOU (11-2)	10	Ind (9-4)			Ind	Hou
Det (4-9)	6	ARIZ (4-9)			Det	Det
SD (5-8)	3	Car (4-9)			SD	Car
Sea (8-5)	4½	BUF (5-8)		Toronto, ONT	Sea	Buf
Pit (7-6)	1	DAL (7-6)			Pit	Dal
OAK (3-10)	3	KC (2-11)			Oak	Oak
	Sun. Nite
NE (10-3)	4½	SF (9-3-1)			NE	NE
	Mon. Nite
TENN (4-9)	1	NYJ (6-7)			Tenn	Tenn

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• Right off the bat, I got a bad feeling.  Jason knows just as I do that Chicago doesn't seem to know how to beat Green Bay under the best circumstances, so why does he have the Bears beating the Packers with all of their injuries and after they dropped a turd in Minnesota?  Another one of his hunches.  He may be right when he says that Green Bay's running for the whole game won't equal Adrian Peterson's 50-yard opening rush last week.  But that's never stopped the Pack from whupping the Bears before.  I don't know how Chicago will stop their slide and make the playoffs, but I have to pick them to keep sliding against the Packers, who will get their only pass rusher, Roided-Up Troglodyte (my official name for Clay Matthews), back for this one.
• We're on the same page going against those overrated Falcons.  They're hosting the champs, who put up a 52 last week and look to be ready to get hot.  Looking at Atlanta's home record this season, it's 6-0 SU but 3-3 ATS.  A weird quirk I noticed looking back at their schedule is, they yo-yo'd from home to road for some reason.  All year, Atlanta's been alternating home and road games, and I gotta think that takes a toll over time.  So if the Dirty Birds go on a slide to end the season, don't be the least bit surprised.  As for this one, who thinks the Falcons are going to stiffen up and contain RB David Wilson and QB Eli Manning?  Me neither.  And Roddy White's hurting, which is really bad timing for Hotlanta.
• Time for me to break out a hunch:  New Orleans fought so hard all season to get back from the crappy start they had, they battled, they scratched...and now they've dropped three straight.  Tampa's pass defense is the drizzling shits, but I'll pick the Bucs because I have a hunch that the Saints don't care anymore.  They got the Bountygate conviction overturned on appeal (even though Paul Tagliabue agreed with Roger Goodell that the bounties happened), they're out of playoff contention, and I just think they're going to mail it in the rest of the way.  Who could blame them for taking a nap now?  It's been a long, tiring year in the Big Easy.  Jay's backing them one more time, even against his guy Josh Freeman.
• Two perfectly mediocre teams in the Vikings and Rams, and we're split on this one, too.  Jay's going with the Vikings because of one guy, a guy whose talents have amazed the entire football world, a guy whose value to the team is immeasurable, and that guy, of course, is Christian Ponder.  Wait, my notes may be a little off...actually, the guy is Adrian Peterson, and he's kinda good.  I'm going with the Rams because of a bunch of guys trying to stop the one guy.  I think St. Louis can contain Peterson.  That leaves a Ponder vs. Bradford QB battle, and as much as I don't like Sam Bradford, it's him over Ponder a million times in a row.
• Brown Fever is sweeping the country!  Everyone's catching on to the great ball of fire that is the Cleveland Browns.  We're happy you all decided to join us.  We'll stay with the Brownies this week as they host that rookie sensation for the Washington Redskins, the man everyone's talking about...yep, QB Kirk Cousins.  Look, the Shanahan Boyz could play games all week, but I actually saw the hit that Robert Griffin III took, and your fucking knee isn't made to bend that way.  I knew all week that Bobby Three-Sticks (shout out to Courtney Cummz for the awesome nickname) wasn't going to go despite reports that he was practicing.  Not to stereotype, but I'm guessing that athletic game-breaking threat that Griffin brought to every game will be missing with Cousins in the lineup.  Therefore, we'll take the hot Cleveland Browns to blow up the Redskins D like explosive diarrhea.  How's that for a visual!
• Is the bloom totally off the rose for Chad Henne and the Jacksonville Jaguars?  Jason says yes.  Miami, the Jags' opponent, just came off a three-game stretch against Seattle, New England, and San Francisco, and they were a Colin Kaepernick scramble away from going 3-0 ATS.  He likes the drop in competition here.  Not me.  I like Jacksonville to win because Miami's offense has been less than spectacular in that stretch, and if the Jags strike early--not far-fetched with their high-flying WR Cecil Shorts back from injury--the Fins may not catch up.  Miami doesn't throw well with their most consistent receiver, Davone Bess.  He won't be there.  How are they gonna throw without him?
• I'm still befuddled at Baltimore shitcanning the offensive coordinator the day after the defense blew a big game against Washington.  I'm rather positive that no team has won the Super Bowl after firing the OC three weeks before the playoffs, so I officially renounce my pick of the Ravens as my Super Bowl champ.  I have no idea who I'm picking now.  As for this contest, I have no intention of picking Jim Caldwell to come up with the magic play calls for Joe Flacco, Ray Rice and the Ravens to knock off Peyton Manning and the Broncos.  In fact, I would predict a game plan heavy on Rice running the rock, which plays into Denver's hands because they're only giving up 3.6 yards per carry this year.  Good luck, Mr. Caldwell.  Jason will beg and plead with the Ravens to show a little pride and come up with a big win.  If they do, I will be very impressed.
• This Indy-Houston spread is fucking hilarious.  Chuckstrong has inspired so many people, Andrew Luck has made such an impact with his MVP-caliber play that...the 9-4 Colts are the biggest underdog of the week to a team that just got ripped apart this past Monday.  I won't lie, I think the Texans will rebound from the Patriots beatdown and show the Colts who the new class of the AFC South is, but I'm not about to pick them to win by double digits, not when their offense has seemingly been unimaginative lately and not when they're playing a guy in Luck who's already engineered six comeback wins in his rookie year.  Jay thinks Indy's gonna get beat really bad.  It wouldn't be the biggest shock if it happened, but I'm a doubter in all Texans big point spreads right about now.
• On to the afternoon slate, and...shit, we can't even front.  As dumb as the Lions are (that Packers loss was their 3rd straight in a game where they led by double digits), they're not the Cardinals.  Arizona has to be the worst team in football, don't they?  Forget 4-0, that's 9 losses in a row, the last by a mind-blowing 58.  Detroit squoosh.
• Jason likes the Panthers to go to San Diego and put another nail in the Norv Turner coffin.  As a Bears fan, that would make me happy because Chicago could really use an offensive guru to get Jay Cutler and the receivers in the same book, much less on the same page.  But I'm a Bears fan, and I can't be happy, so I'll take the Chargers to cover.  Actually, I said last week that SD may run the table now that QB Philip Rivers has found a consistent WR in Danario Alexander, and the Panthers don't provide a defense that would make me back off that observation.
• Why the hell are they playing these Bills games in Toronto?  I'm going to ask that question every time these Canada games come up on the schedule.  You wanna send some games to Canada?  Send those Jags games to Canada.  No one's watching them anywhere on the globe.  Anyway, I'll happily take Skittles to run all over his former team, the Bills, as the Seahawks continue their improbable march towards that division title I predicted for them in the preseason.  Jason really doesn't like Seattle on the road.  He just picked Ryan Fitzpatrick to beat them.  I mean, he really doesn't like Seattle on the road.
• Pittsburgh-Dallas was my toughest pick of the week.  Both teams have beasts who are playing injured, and I had to decide which I was going to back, Ben Roethlisberger or Dez Bryant.  I'm taking the Steelers because I think Roethlisberger is going to ball out after his embarrassing return last week in a home loss to San Diego.  Big Ben hooked up twice late with Mike Wallace, and I think he'll keep that deep ball going against the Cowboys.  I'm very afraid of Bryant playing through his finger injury and continuing his stellar play, but I'm also very afraid of him losing his concentration due to the injury and not being effective, and Dallas is screwed without Bryant at his best.  Jas feels that he has to take his Super Bowl pick in Dallas.  He knows that their playoff hopes are basically squashed if they can't get this win.
• In the worst game of the day, we'll take the Raiders to whip the Chiefs.  Two rotting corpses, but Oakland is rested after losing on Thursday last week, and Kansas City is without their only decent WR, Dwayne Bowe.
• In the best game of the day, the awesome athletes on the San Francisco defense will try to contain Tom Brady and the maulers of New England.  Why do we have the Pats on top?  Jason says the Patriots may throw every down and not even bother with the run, and while that's hyperbolic, the point is taken.  When Brady is on fire like this, why bother establishing anything else?  Keep throwing until someone stops you.  I actually think San Francisco's D will slow Brady a bit, but I believe that the overlooked awesome athletes on New England's defense will restrict Frank Gore and Colin Kaepernick just enough to give the Pats another big prime-time victory.  Whatever the outcome, this is the game to watch in this week of great games.
• The Monday game is not.  We'll both take Tennessee to take out New York and the Sanchize, who, last time he was seen in a night game, Jason observed, was running up his lineman's ass and fumbling the ball for a TD.  I talked about the Titans last week in my What I Learned column and how they've made improvements over the course of the year, and hopefully they will put it together and get the win and murder the playoff hopes of the Jets once and for all.  That's your two reasons to possibly watch this sad game--you may see the Jets get buried, and you may see another Mark Sanchez buttfumble.  What more could you ask for?

Thu. Nite Bengals @ Eagles

This was supposed to be a big finale for this season of Thursday Night Football, but Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy decided to skip it.  That leaves Cincinnati as a 5 1/2-point road favorite, and you know how we feel about road teams on a Thursday night.  Jason will get cute again and take Cincy to win 21-20.  I'll go out on a bang on the final Thursday pick this year.  Gimme the resurgent Iggles FTW.  No statistical reason, just giving Philly some love for their recent hot play while taking another chance to spit on the hopes and dreams of the bumslayers in Cincinnati.

My Pick:  Philadelphia 27-24

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I Never Lose! (At Losing Locks)

At picking losers that is! Did you realize that if you took my locks to Vegas, and bet the opposite, that you'd be pretty rich right now? Somehow, in the midst of blowing EVERY lock pick I've made, I've managed to shave Dre's lead overall.

Not much detail this week on the picks. I was stuck in a blizzard all of Sunday and Monday and it looks like Dre nailed most of what I had to say, but here's a few insights on the week that was.

• How perfect of the Lions and Pack to push, after Dre and I both looked great at different points in the game on our pick. Nice to see Matt Stafford shit the bed in the latest episode of "How Will the Lions Find Ways to Lose."
• Dre nailed it: I didn't realize the Raven D was the problem. Somewhere, Cam Cameron is having a drink with Juan Castillo.
• Sure, the Giants looked awesome. Everyone looks awesome against the Saints D.
• Atlanta and Houston did NOTHING to silence their critics.
• Any time that Dre picks a game 2 weeks out, take the opposite to Vegas.
• If you told me a team would win a game 58-0 and 20 guesses as to who would win that game, I'd not have picked the Seattle Seahawks. They better not win the division, cause whoever would head to the Meat Grinder would be in for trouble.

2012 Week 14: What I Learned

• Games in no detail:  Broncos-Raiders (Peyton still isn't connecting on deep throws, but Denver covered anyway because Oakland stinks), Chiefs-Browns (uh, don't look now, but Cleveland actually has some playmakers), Chargers-Steelers (if WR Danario Alexander was there as a Philip Rivers target all season, San Diego would still be contending), Jets-Jaguars (the only way the Jets can win these days--42 rushes and 19 throws), Falcons-Panthers (Atlanta is so overrated), Eagles-Buccaneers (oh, that Tampa secondary), Rams-Bills (ugly weather, ugly game, but Buffalo safety George Wilson shoulda picked off Sam Bradford and won it twice), Cardinals-Seahawks (your all-time FedEx Mail-It-In™ Team, oh, and fire Whisenhunt now).
• Wait, I'm really confused--the Baltimore Ravens, flag bearers of fearsome, old-school defense, give up the ass to Robert Griffin III and Kirk Cousins and blow a game to Washington that Baltimore had sewn up...and the offensive coordinator gets fired the next day?!  I'm shellshocked, and I bet so was Cam Cameron.  Nothing against the new OC, Jim Caldwell, but Cameron was charged with the task of making Joe Flacco and the passing game "elite," then when everyone complained about Ray Rice not running enough last week, he fed Rice the rock this week as the Ravens built a 28-20 lead with a few minutes remaining.  The loss goes squarely on the defense, if you ask me.  Even the stats bear out what's going on with Baltimore this year.  They're 16th in pass offense, not elite at all but the very definition of okay, but the pass D is 23rd.  Overall, they're 18th in offense but 24th in defense.  This warrants the canning of the OC?  Really??  And what's Caldwell going to do in the next couple of weeks that will put Baltimore in better position to win the Super Bowl?  Inquiring minds wanna know.  Washington keeps chugging along, but RG3 can't possibly play next week with that hyperextended knee.  Let's see how this Cousins kid handles another whole game.
• Another tough effort by Tennessee, another key mistake or two made by the QB Jake Locker that virtually gives the game to the opponent.  It wasn't enough to let Indianapolis cover, unfortunately for me.  Much has been said about the Colts and their miracle season, so I'll leave Chuckstrong alone and let them bask in 9-4.  I want to acknowledge how the Titans have fought and improved in several areas, notably WR play and pass rush.  They didn't get much pressure off the edge this year despite bringing in Kamerion Wimbley, but others have started stepping up and pressuring the QB, new names like Derrick Morgan and Kenny Klug.  And the receiving corps has steadily improved, with Nate Washington as the possession veteran and kids Kenny Britt and Kendall Wright, along with TE Jared Cook, making plays.  I'm a Jake Locker guy, so I'm all for him continuing to play and make mistakes and learn now.  I think he'll be pretty damn good in a couple of years.  Cook's hurt now, but I'll still make another pick for next week early (which hasn't gone well for me, but what the hay).  The Titans will show up on the Monday night stage and play ugly football against the Jets, and they will beat them.  We don't have to watch it, and who would want to.
• Nothing but questions for the Chicago Bears after another big loss.  Why won't Jay Cutler play fundamentally sound and stop flinging flat-footed throws that get picked off because they don't have enough juice behind them?  Why did they give all that money to RB Matt Forte in the offseason when he's just an average back?  How do they allow Adrian Peterson to penetrate them like a basketball player in a brothel on the very first play of the game knowing that Minnesota has no other offense?  And how does coach Lovie Smith let his team go into Minneapolis and lose the tie for the division lead to a Vikings squad spiraling out of playoff contention??  The Bears may not win again this year if they don't answer these questions, and yes, I'm aware that they still have Arizona on their sked.
• Dallas actually should have screwed up their attempt at an "inspirational" win the day after a teammate died because they were losing in the 4th quarter at Cincinnati and the Bengals were moving the ball easily against them.  But in the 3rd and 4th quarters, A.J. Green uncharacteristically started dropping passes, including one on the edge of the end zone with no defenders around him.  Give Tony Romo and his pass catchers the credit for engineering the comeback, but it doesn't happen if Green doesn't develop butterfingers.  And that's why the Cincinnati Bengals are, and always will be, nothing but bumslayers.
• The Dolphins and 49ers were, as I thought, very careful and conservative on offense as they tried not to make mistakes and let their respective defenses find a way to win.  San Francisco scored on one drive that started inside Miami's red zone because of a muffed punt, and they scored their last TD on a read-option sprint by QB Colin Kaepernick that went for about 640 yards.  So I think Miami should have covered that spread for me, but it didn't work out.  What I wonder is, can SF win a title that way?  The careful and conservative plan got Alex Smith to the playoffs last year, but they had to open it up in order to hold off the Saints in the playoffs, then they couldn't open it up against the Giants, or else they would have won that one.  I still see the obvious plan by Coach Insane to have the better athlete at QB able to open it up when they need it in this year's playoffs.  But watching the Miami game, I wonder if they will wait until it's too late to try to stop being conservative.  They can't rely on muffed punts to beat people.
• The New York Giants got a complete Eli Manning game against the Saints, and that's going to get totally ignored in the wake of David Wilson's breakout performance.  New Orleans had a couple of moments in the 3rd quarter when it appeared that they would rally and mount a big comeback, and they were snuffed out by kick returns by Wilson that would break any team's spirit.  But before the returns and late in the game, Eli made some magnificent throws to put points on the board and punch the New Orleans D right in the balls.  This game is what happens when Eli's on his game and the G-Men can complement him with an explosive athlete in the backfield and on returns.  That combo may be unbeatable.  We'll see what Wilson can do from here now that every opponent will key on him.  But don't take your eye off the ball--the real indicator of the team's chances of repeating is all about Eli.
• Green Bay ran the rock in the 2nd half and added another element in the elements.  Steady snow made an effective passing game problematic for Aaron Rodgers and company, so they switched gears adroitly in the 3rd and 4th quarters and gashed Detroit for big runs as a way to move the ball.  That had to be frightening for potential Packer playoff teams.  The Lions actually had a ten-point lead, and then they started finding ways to lose, as they always do, highlighted by a Matt Stafford fumble where he cocked his arm to throw and simply lost the ball backwards with no players around him, which was picked up and ran in for a GB touchdown.  A garbage time FG made this one a push, robbing me of another win, but I'm still encouraged by Green Bay's ability to win a game in a different manner than they usually win.  They should be getting injured stars back soon, too, meaning they'll be getting healthy at the perfect time.
• Houston has some questions to answer as well after Monday night in Massachusetts, the biggest being, how did coach Gary Kubiak bring his 11-1 Texans team up to New England unprepared for varsity speed?  They looked like the JV squad scrimmaging with the big boys on a Wednesday after school.  The offensive line looked helpless, the entire defense looked hopeless, and DE J.J. Watt was breathless, clearly ineffective and huffing and puffing due to the manic tempo of the Patriots offense.  And he's virtually their whole pass rush, and the Giants prove every five years that the only way to tame Tom Brady is rushing him, so once that element was gone, Houston had no chance.  I said it after the previous big Houston prime-time game when they got dong-whipped by Green Bay, and I'll say it again:  Don't get fooled by the record, Houston's not very good.

Week 14 Records--Dre 7-8-1, .467, Tout Service 2-1; Jay 7-8-1, .467, Tout Service 0-3
YTD Records--Dre 105-97-6, .520, Tout Service 5-4; Jay 100-102-6, .495, Tout Service 0-8-1

2012 Week #14

Jason's taking a well-deserved weekender with the wife, so his picks are e-mailed along with a few choice one-liners.  I'll also deliver my analysis for each contest in one line.  He was game enough to give Tout Service another try, so I'll also have three Locks of the Week.  I have a Christmas-themed post in mind, but I'll discuss it with Jay next time we chat.  Even if he's not up for it, I think I'll give it a go.  On to this week's picks in almost no detail.

Fav	Spread	Dog	Final		Dre	Jay
	Thu. Nite
Den (9-3)	10½	OAK (3-9)	Den 26-13		Oak	Oak
	Sunday
WASH (6-6)	1	Bal (9-3)			Bal	Bal*
CLE (4-8)	7	KC (2-10)			KC	KC
PIT (7-5)	9½	SD (4-8)			SD	Pit
IND (8-4)	5	Tenn (4-8)			Ind	Tenn
NYJ (5-7)	2½	JACK (2-10)			NY	Jack*
Chi (8-4)	2½	MIN (6-6)			Chi*	Min
Atl (11-1)	3	CAR (3-9)			Car	Car
TB (6-6)	9	Phi (3-9)			TB	Phi
BUF (5-7)	3	StL (5-6-1)			StL	Buf
CIN (7-5)	3½	Dal (6-6)			Dal*	Cin
SF (8-3-1)	10½	Mia (5-7)			Mia	SF
NYG (7-5)	4½	NO (5-7)			NO	NO*
SEA (7-5)	10	Ariz (4-8)			Sea*	Sea
	Sun. Nite
GB (8-4)	7	Det (4-8)			GB	Det
	Mon. Nite
NE (9-3)	3½	Hou (11-1)			NE	NE

• Ravens-Redskins, D:  Battle of the Beltway, Ravens for all their troubles are 9-3, and that rookie wall for RG3 and Morris should hit...now, hopefully??  J:  "Ravens as DOGS? Love it - LOCK."
• Chiefs-Browns, D:  Brady Quinn's no team leader even after that speech last week, but he can lead KC to cover a touchdown over the fucking Browns.  J:  None.
• Chargers-Steelers, D:  Don't trust SD to win, but don't trust Roethlisberger to lead a rout in his 1st game back.  J:  None.
• Titans-Colts, D:  Might be a shootout due to two poor defenses, and you gotta trust Luck over Locker in a duel.  J:  None.
• Jets-Jaguars, D:  Chad Henne's pixie dust wore off last week, and if the Jets can't get it together against Jacksonville, they should stop playing football.  J:  "Seriously? Jets are favorites? LOCK."
• Bears-Vikings, D:  I didn't know Chicago would be so beat up when I called them to go into Minnesota and take this one, but the Vikes are dropping out of contention like a stone, so I'm sticking with it.  J:  "You picked the result last week, so I have to go against you."
• Falcons-Panthers, D:  Atlanta hasn't played their best in quite a while, so they're primed for a rump-roasting in Charlotte.  J:  "Falcons caught napping after clinching."
• Eagles-Buccaneers, D:  Guess Bryce Brown hasn't quit for Philly, but I'm still taking Tampa, desperate at 6-6, to rip through the sad-sack Eagles.  J:  "Foles and Brown seem to have reinvigorated the Philly O."
• Rams-Bills, D:  Since I can't take the push even though this is going to OT and ending in a FG, I'll take the better-coached Rams to maybe find a way to squeeze this one out.  J:  None.
• Cowboys-Bengals, D:  Lock it up because for all their stupidity and worship, Dallas ain't bums, and Cincy's still bumslayers.  J:  "At least these Cowboy drives won't end in death."
• Dolphins-49ers, D:  Should be a careful, conservative offensive game plan on both sides, so gimme the Fish to fight and keep it close.  J:  None.
• Saints-Giants, D:  Saints to win because I really hate New York on a short week versus an angry Drew Brees on a long week.  J:  "LOCK."
• Cardinals-Seahawks, D:  Lock up another rah rah sis-boom-bah for Pete Carroll versus inferior competition in the Meat Grinder.  J:  None.
• Lions-Packers, D:  I'd love to think Megatron can keep it close with the season he's having, but Detroit's proven its stupidity has no bounds.  J:  None.
• Texans-Patriots, D:  Another proving ground for Houston, but their secondary's hurting, and against Tom Brady, that's a wrap.  J:  None.

Thu. Nite Broncos @ Raiders

Jason has already texted his pick of Broncos winning by 8, which means he's going with the home team Raiders to cover the 10 1/2.  He's gettin' cute again, and this time, I'm right there with him.  As bad as Oakland is this season, there are three items of interest to consider in their favor: 1, not only are they home on Thursday, which has been great so far ATS, but that's a big-ass number for a home team on a Thursday.  2, the Broncos have failed to cover twice in a row, and maybe Peyton Manning and his 36-year-old body is slowing down.  And 3, one thing Oakland can do well is find late cheap garbage-time touchdowns so Carson Palmer can add to his meaningless stats.  Hey, Tony Kornheiser said so on his radio show, so it must be true.  Add all that up, and it sets up wonderfully for the Silver & Black to compete and fight with Denver tooth and nail...and wind up losing by 10.  Yep, I'm a football expert!

My Pick:  Denver 23-13

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2012 Week 13: What I Learned

Abbreviated version as I go take my car to the shop yet again:  I learned that we would fail miserably if we only picked our Locks of the Week.  I learned that Drew Brees may still be running from ghosts of San Francisco.  Seattle would be an awesome road team if only they could play Chicago every time.  Adrian Peterson is fucking monstrous.  Someone needs to pinch-kick for David Akers in OT.  Obama should mandate that the Cardinals and Jets never play each other again.  Kansas City's incredible, inspirational victory wouldn't have happened if they played, say, the Patriots instead of Chico Rivera's piss-poor Panthers.  I need to stop giving the Lions chances to prove their maturity and poise, which obviously exist right next to Santa and the Easter Bunny.  That's two straight games with terrible 1st halves for Peyton Manning and the Broncos...just something for which to keep watch.  One, and only one, reason for Baltimore to outplay Pittsburgh for three quarters and still lose--Joe Flacco, who was terrible in the 1st half, is far from elite.  Speaking of giving teams a chance to prove they can be trusted, Dallas had the spread covered and gave up a garbage-time 95-yard TD punt return?  REALLY?!?!?  And congrats to Washington, which pulled a pass rush out of its ass and wouldn't let Eli Manning lead the Giants to a comeback win.  The Skins earned it, the Giants didn't.

Week 13 Records--Dre 7-9, .438, Tout Service 1-2; Jay 8-8, .500, Tout Service 0-3
YTD Records--Dre 98-89-5, .524, Tout Service 3-3; Jay 93-94-5, .497, Tout Service 0-5-1

Week 13 ATS Recap: Where Quit Trumps Stupid

Picks We Both Won (4)

• Jets 7, Cardinals (+6) 6 - Locally, we were treated to the ending of this game as a live look-in. I got to see enough of the network broadcast to see that Greg McElroy was named player of the game. McElroy threw the "game-winning" pass and threw for 29 yards. It made me glad that I didn't have to see the rest of the game, even though seeing Mark Sanchez benched would have made me happy. Nice to see the Cards and Dre's new favorite coach Ken Whisenhunt gained a whopping 137 yards of total offense. Glad to see that QB change is working!
• Texans (-6½) 24, Titans 10 - Yeah, this was the game we were worried about. This is why I'm winless on my locks.
• Browns (-1) 20, Raiders 17 - The Brown Fever left The Black Hole the same way it does all of us: as shit.
• Bengals (-1) 20, Chargers 13 - Yep, still done with the Bolts.

Picks We Both Lost (5)

• Rams (+7½) 16, Niners 13 (OT) - Some teams just have the other teams number. Too bad these two don't play again this season, cause I'd be ALL OVER the Rams.
• Chiefs (+3) 27, Panthers 21 - Sadly, it took a murder-suicide to even notice this game.
• Bills (-6) 34, Jaguars 18 - Looks like the Chad Henne Express was getting full, cause Dre and I hopped on that baby and crashed the fucker.
• Broncos 31, Bucs (+9½) 23 - Deja vu all over again: the Broncos were once again handed a big spread to cover and managed an 8 point win, putting me on the wrong side of picking a squoosh. Fool me twice, shame on me.
• Steelers (+9½) 23, Ravens 20 - I'm sure that Dre, Mr. "Fuck You Faggot Ravens" will have an earful for me on this one next week. How do you have a lead and cough in up to Charlie Batch? I was watching a retrospective special on NFL Network about greatest blunders ever, and the Thanksgiving Day coin toss game was on there, from 1998. You know who was QB for the Lions that day? Charlie Fucking Batch! That's So Ravens!

Picks Dre Won Head to Head (3)

• Falcons (-3½) 23, Saints 13 - Leave it to me, I fell in love with the hook here, even though I expected Atlanta to avenge their loss of a few weeks back. Even though Drew Brees channeled his inner Carson Palmer, the Falcons couldn't do much with all the turnovers, and looked really timid on a big stage. While they most likely delivered the death blow to the Saints playoff hopes, their sluggish play on offense will be something to watch in the postseason.
• Seahawks (+3) 23, Bears 17 (OT) - So the Bears let one of the worst road teams walk into Soldier Field and gut out a win. Hmmm, OK. But look what I noticed, Dre during the picks guaranteed a Bear win over the Vikings NEXT WEEK. After picking the Vikings not to cover at Green Bay (which they did). So, sorry Dre, I have to take Minnesota next week cause I know what happens when you pick games two weeks in a row. Sorry, Bears, Dre doomed you.
• Patriots 23, Dolphins (+9) 16 - We had a few garbage time losses (wins) this week, and here I came up short. The Pats had just gone up 10 win a minute to go, yet still let the Fins waltz into FG range and knock out a quick FG before trying an onside kick. Wow, thanks.

Picks I Won Head to Head (4)

• Packers 23, Vikings (+9½) 14 - Looks like I read one right, as the 200+ yard effort from Adrian Peterson amounted to me covering by a hook on a huge spread. The Vikings did miss a late FG that would have made this a little closer, but a cover is a cover. I'll take it.
• Colts (+6) 35, Lions 33 - When we made our picks, we debated the Stupid Power Rankings, as in ranking teams by how dumb they are. The Lions were a top-5 team, and here again, up 12 with 4 minutes to go, managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Great job being opportunistic, Indy, but the Lions just gave you that one.
• Cowboys 38, Eagles (+10½) 33 - Our current leader in the Stupid Power Rankings, the Dallas Cowboys, must have allowed one of the cheapest backdoor covers I've ever seen, and I've seen lots. Seriously? A 98 yard punt return with 30 seconds left to when you were up by 11. In the realm of Quit vs. Stupid, give me Quit every time.
• Redskins (+3) 17, Giants 16 - It looks like Mike Shanahan may have quit on his team too soon. Save for a ridculous blown coverage against Victor Cruz at the end of these two teams last matchup, the Skins would be in first place. Instead of quitting on your team Mike, how about not letting guys get behind your secondary at the end of games!

2012 Week #13

It's a full boat, and some very curious lines, and the return of Tout Service, which I know has you all excited.  So let's get to it.

Fav	Spread	Dog	Final		Dre	Jay
	Thu. Nite
ATL (10-1)	3½	NO (5-6)	Atl 23-13		Atl	NO
	Sunday
CHI (8-3)	3	Sea (6-5)			Sea*	Chi*
GB (7-4)	9½	Min (6-5)			GB	Min
SF (8-2-1)	7½	STL (4-6-1)			SF*	SF
NYJ (4-7)	6	Ariz (4-7)			Ariz	Ariz
Car (3-8)	3½	KC (1-10)			Car	Car*
DET (4-7)	6	Ind (7-4)		Elvis	Det	Ind
BUF (4-7)	6	Jack (2-9)			Jack	Jack
NE (8-3)	9	MIA (5-6)			Mia	NE
Hou (10-1)	6½	TENN (4-7)			Hou	Hou
DEN (8-3)	9½	TB (6-5)			Den	Den
BAL (9-2)	9½	Pit (6-5)			Bal*	Bal*
Cle (3-8)	1	OAK (3-8)			Cle	Cle
Cin (6-5)	1	SD (4-7)			Cin	Cin
	Sun. Nite
DAL (5-6)	10½	Phi (3-8)			Dal	Phi
	Mon. Nite
NYG (7-4)	3	WASH (5-6)			NY	Wash

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• Right off the bat, it's our first head-to-head battle of differing Locks of the Week.  Jay's got the Bears pounding the Seahawks in Chicago, which is a sound pick considering Seattle's 1-5 road record this season.  Why do I have the Seahawks as a lock to beat the Bears?  I've been scarred from the last two Seattle trips to Soldier Field, which have resulted in road wins.  Seattle will have Skittles out there running up and down in Beast Mode as he usually does, and their secret weapon is the rookie QB who likes to hit it big on play action after Beast Mode has worn out the opponent.  Throw in the Chicago offensive line, in shambles after injuries and walkouts, and I don't feel good about Jay Cutler's chances for success.  It really helps that the two Seattle cornerbacks who will eventually be suspended by Roger Goodell won't be suspended for this game.
• We're also seeing things differently when the Vikings travel to Green Bay.  Jason's got Adrian Peterson running up and down on the Packers and keeping the game within that big spread.  Not me.  I got Pack squoosh.  I got Minnesota in pure free fall, leaving playoff contention behind as they go around the division showing just how little they deserve to be regarded.  They'll be back home next week hosting the Bears, and they'll get destroyed there, too.
• The 49ers have to be regarded as the best team in the league, from my perspective.  Neither Atlanta nor Houston's combination of offense and defense strike me as better than San Francisco's.  Now Colin Kaepernick gets to put on a show on turf, and the defense gets to avenge the embarrassment of playing the Rams to a tie a few weeks ago.  If Kaep can handle the Superdome, then the Edward Jones Dome should be no sweat.  I'm locking up the Niners on the road.
• Whatever one may think of Arizona and the nap time they've entered during the Ryan Lindley Era, giving 6 points in order to pick the wretched New York Jets, who can't even hold on to their longtime superfan Fireman Ed, is stupefying.  Good Lord, this is the only way I can pick the Cards.  Take the Jets and give that many points with Total Fraud still at the helm?  No way.  You gotta take Arizona and the points.  There's just no other option.  Or you can pass on this game if you're an "expert" and not be bothered with it, but we pick every game, dammit!  Even if we don't intend to watch a second.
• Jason will lock up the Panthers as they take on the Chiefs in Kansas City.  Why?  Frankly, the other team had a guy shoot his head off, like, the day before.  You need more of a reason than that?  I'm not locking it, but I also don't imagine KC will be in much of a mood to play football considering what just happened.  Plus, Brady Quinn and his zero TDs still take the field for the Chiefs.  Would make me wanna shoot myself if I played for them, that's for sure.  Three thoughts from me about the Jovan Belcher tragedy:  1, who??  2, that doomsday clock that people have for when football will no longer look like football because so many safety restrictions will be in place that the sport won't be recognizable thanks to a well-meaning but flawed attempt at concussion prevention?  I've been hearing that clock put at 10 to 20 years from now.  Well, Belcher moved that clock up about 5 years.  That shit was next level, and I think it had to happen only because of undiagnosed brain injuries.  What else could it have been?  No other sport has guys snapping and killing themselves like this, except pro wrestling, and I love pro wrestling, but you don't wanna be lumped in with pro wrestling when the topic is young men killing themselves and their loved ones.  And 3, like a boss, the NFL and Goodell say that this game will be played.  24 hours after a player blew his head off in front of coaches and management.  Damn.  The full stadium must be entertained, and the show must go on, I guess.
• Elvis returns for this trap game in Detroit, where a clearly inferior Lions squad are rather big favorites over a Colts team 3 games better than the Lions.  Jason will fall into the trap and take those points.  He's certainly taking the smarter team, because the Lions proved on Thanksgiving that they can find new ways to lose every week if they have to.  But I'm giving them one more chance.  One of those defenses has to make a play somewhere along the way, and I don't like Detroit's D, but I like it better than Indy's.  The Lions can dominate the Colts rushing and passing and put Chuckstrong down for another day.
• Jacksonville continues to get dissed by the oddsmakers.  Last week, they were home dogs against the terrible Titans, and they got the job done.  This week, they are almost a TD underdog against the woeful Buffalo Bills.  We'll both take those points.  Buffalo's defense shouldn't slow down the hot Jags so much that they win by a touchdown.  I can see Buffalo winning thanks to the running attack, but only by a FG or so.
• Jay still laughs at picking the Patriots -20½ over the Dolphins the year New England went 16-0, and the Pats won 49-28.  I had Miami, of course.  He likes New England to stomp on Miami similarly this week.  While NE has racked up some impressive point totals this year, I'm playing a hunch and taking Miami to stay within a TD.  The Pats addressed their weak secondary by adding Aqib Talib, but he can't play everywhere in the backfield.  Ryan Tannehill might be able to pass enough to keep it close.
• Is taking the 10-1 Texans to cover less than a TD against the Titans a sucker bet?  Jason wondered aloud before going with Houston anyway.  Clearly, this feels like sort of a trap to Jay, and I sorta agree.  I think Houston covers too, but I think they may have to grind it out and fight with Tennessee to do it.  Say what you will about the Titans (and I do), but they do make you work for it.  But Arian Foster hasn't been afraid to work for it, so I think he'll have a big game.
• On to the afternoon, and Peyton Manning and Denver, who got it going late last week in KC, too late to cover the number for us.  This is a stiff test for the Broncos as they host Tampa Bay, but we'll pick Peyton once again.  We both struggled with this one, as the number is quite large considering how well the underdogs have been playing.  But I think in Denver against the maestro, this is a game where the Bucs get exposed as pretenders.  Tampa has three road games left this year, and I don't see them winning any of them with that pass defense.
• We didn't struggle with the Steelers-Ravens pick despite the same large number.  We both are locking up Baltimore.  Look, they were subpar last week in San Diego.  But they're at home, they're playing their rival who's still missing their best player, and they smell a chance to bury said rival and not have to worry about them come playoff time.  They should be highly motivated, and this should be a slaughter.
• Cleveland's 0-5 on the road this year.  It doesn't matter how scrappy they are, that sucks.  You know what else sucks?  The entire Oakland Raiders organization.  Form top to bottom, they're bad and clueless, and on the field, the defense has put up such little fight that Oakland looks to be a FedEx Mail-It-In™ Team.  The Browns have fight, the Raiders have quit.  Or as Jason put it, we have Brown Fever in the Black Hole, which means that this game is shit.  Cue the CSI David Caruso/Robert Plant Scream.
• San Diego still has fight, they just have no clue.  There looks to be 12 or so coaches that will all get shitcanned the day after the regular season ends, and Norv Turner's right at the head of the line.  Jason's done picking the Chargers the rest of the way, and I may be too.  I'm definitely going Andy Dalton and the Bengals here.  The Bolts will keep it close and find a way to lose in the end.  It's what they do.
• The NFC Least gets the prime time spotlight for both the Sunday and Monday night games.  A brilliant idea that could only have been conceived on the East Coast by some New York idiot who thinks the world revolves around that overhyped division.  On Sunday, the football public gets the treat of Andy Reid and the Philadelphia Eagles, who are nominated for FedEx Mail-It-In™ Team for their embarrassing showings the last month plus.  I think I'm done picking the Eagles this year.  Not Jason.  In the battle of Stupid (Cowboys) vs. Quit (Eagles), he says it's Quit all the way.  He just can't make himself go with Stupid.  I feel exactly the opposite.  I think you have to always go with Stupid, because at least they haven't quit.
• On Monday, the Redskins, who almost went to New York and knocked off the Giants in Week 7, get a crack with home field in their favor.  The same Redskins who knocked off the Giants twice last year on New York's way to a World title.  Jason's backing RG3 to fuck up the G-Men again and get the win this time.  I was tempted, but I'm going to give the Giants some love so long as Eli Manning appears to be healthy.  The defense is relatively full (they may not have Jason Pierre-Paul, which would really hurt), and you know they want to hunt down the rookie phenom Robert Griffin and slap him around a little.  This may be a shootout with the last QB winning.  But if the New York defense is really back to their normal level, they'll shut down RG3, which is easier said than done.