Scott Norwood

Scott Norwood
Wide Right started it all.

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Week 12 ATS Recap: A Boy Named Suh

Let's get right to it. These short NFL weeks are driving me nuts.



  • Packers (-6½) 27, Lions 15 - Both losers - The Ndamukong Suh sideshow overshadowed what was easily the Packers best defensive effort of the year. Matthew Stafford and his busted hand helped quite a bit too, but it seemed that the Lions were on to something with Kevin Smith until (spoiler alert!) Smith pulled up lame late in the first quarter. With no ground game, the Packers capitalized on Stafford's mistakes and coasted to an easy win. As for Suh, he just needs to get his shit under control and channel whatever is causing him to lose it into some positives for his team.

  • Cowboys 20, Dolphins (+7) 19 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Go figure, this was the pick we differed on that I thought I'd lose. Miami is playing MUCH better ball over the last five weeks, and they should be competetive from here on out. After some first half Tony Romo brain farts, the Boys rebounded and eked out a last second win. I guess it's better to have those mental lapses early than late.

  • Ravens (-3½) 16, Niners 6 - Dre winner, Jason loser - The popular consensus is that the 49er offense was exposed here. Since most teams can't bring the heat like a motivated Raven team can, I'll say that San Fran can still be a playoff threat. It will all come down to matchups for them in the postseason, perhaps more than for any team going into the playoffs. The Ravens showed what they can do when they put their minds to it, and the schedule makers have cursed the Ravens again with a dog team following a good team. Expect Cleveland to cover this weekend, and hell they might just win. Baltimore: don't kick it to Joshua Cribbs!

  • Falcons (-9½) 24, Vikings 14 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Hey, Chris Owens, thanks for horse-collaring Percy Harvin at the 3 yard line on that 104 yard kickoff return and blowing my cover you fucknutt!

  • Texans (-6½) 20, Jaguars 13 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Nice work, Jags. You're so awful that you lost to Matt Leinart AND T.J. Yates. If Yates had been knocked out too, would Gary Kubiak had suited up? Jacksonville promptly fired Jack Del Rio, who can now join David Garrard in early retirement. It's not about the money.

  • Titans (-3) 23, Buccaneers 17 - Both winners - Welcome back, Chris Johnson!

  • Cardinals (+1) 23, Rams 20 - Jason winner, Dre loser - My arm is hurting from patting myself on the back for calling this little nugget out during my and Dre's pick discussion last Saturday night: I said Patrick Peterson was due for another special teams TD and that would help propel Arizona to a win. I did NOT see Beanie Wells Sanduskying the Ram run D to the tune of 228 yards, however.

  • Bengals 23, Browns (+7) 20 - Both losers - After two tough divisional losses, we expected Cincinnati to squoosh the Brownies, but Cincy seemed a little hungover, or punch drunk, after games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Andy Dalton found A.J. Green late down the field to set up a final minute field goal and send Cleveland home empty handed.

  • Jets 28, Bills (+9½) 24 - Jason winner, Dre loser - How on Earth do the Jets get to give 9½ points to anyone? Yeah, I know the Bills are Brady Quinn Done, but that big a spread is given to complete teams. Yeah, yeah, the Jets scored 28 and Total Fraud threw 4 TD's. If this was LAST years Jet defense, this would have been an easy cover. Not this year.

  • Panthers (-3½) 27, Colts 19 - Jason winner, Dre loser - I am proud to announce that I will NOT be the proud owner of Curtis Painter on my fantasy team, as he did not throw for 300 yards are Dre predicted he would. This would have been even more embarrassing considering that Painter has now been benched for Dan Freakin Orlovsky. The guy who took a 7 step drop on his own goal line for a safety. I'm still on my Peyton Manning for MVP push here.

  • Redskins (+3) 23, Seahawks 17 - Both losers - Dre must hate this one as I pretty much dared him to take the Redskins this week. Oops.

  • Raiders (-3) 25, Bears 20 - Both winners - I was fully prepared to take the Bears had Oakland been the favorite I expected them to be, say 5½ points or so as I told Dre. Oakland won by 5. Maybe I should set these lines for Vegas. Thanks for the gift, guys!

  • Patriots (-3½) 38, Eagles 20 - Both winners - Speaking of gifts....the Pats only giving 3½ to the Dream Team? Just to toy with Philly, New England spotted the Eagles 10 early points, and then took over the game in the air and on the ground, and the rout was on.

  • Broncos (+5½) 16, Chargers 13 (OT) - Dre winner, Jason loser - I'm gonna have to mail Dre his Tebow "Jesus" jersey. Dre held the reins of the Tebow bandwagon while I dove off head first. Something I overlooked: the Bronco defense, and how bad San Diego sucks. Just to keep the hype alive, Jesus gets to go to Minnesota this week. Does Denver play any good teams anymore?

  • Steelers 13, Chiefs (+10½) 9 - Both losers - The Steelers need to send Tyler Palko either a big thank you card, or a game ball, or both, because the KC defense came to play on Sunday night. It was tough to watch too, because you knew their efforts were in vain, as KC's offense couldn't get anything going, and Tyler Palko might mean "Curtis Painter" in another language. Just brutal to watch.

  • Saints (-7) 49, Giants 24 - Both losers - Our primetime suck continued, and I even had the Giants to win. They let New Orleans abuse them in every facet of the game, and who do the G-Men get this week? The Packers? Oh, shit.

There's a game tomorrow night already? And it's a shitty matchup? Just great.

2011 Week 12: What I Learned

It's getting very frustrating running under .500 all season despite watching the games and attempting to learn something about these teams.  It's like I'm not learning anything at all.

  • Games in no detail:   Vikings-Falcons (good fight shown by Minnesota, but just not good enough); Panthers-Colts (one of Curtis Painter's better games except for that end-zone INT, so now he gets benched), Cardinals-Rams (hey Rams, Beanie Wells?  Really?! And stop fucking punting it to Patrick Peterson!), Redskins-Seahawks (only Rex Grossman, and not John Beck, could have led that comeback win).
  • Well, Detroit had its big chance.  They stifled the vaunted Green Bay offense in the 1st half, limiting them to only one touchdown, but the Lions couldn't score at all.  One got the feeling that Detroit was blowing a great opportunity to light up the Packer defense and put points in the bank before Aaron Rodgers and the Packer offense found their stride.  And the 3rd quarter saw everything unravel in the Motor City.  Green Bay scored 17 points, Ndamukong Suh got ejected for stepping on someone, Kevin Smith remembered that he's injury prone, and Matthew Stafford remembered that he has a busted digit that makes him throw the ball to the other team.  He overcame that last week when I picked against him, and he couldn't this time when I went with him.  What a lost opportunity.
  •  Miami's long-snapping failed them in Dallas.  Maybe the Dolphins could have pulled off the upset if they could take a shotgun snap instead of coughing up the football and fumbling around a couple of different times.  They also settled for FGs instead of punching the ball into the end zone.  But the bottom line for the picks is, I lost and Jason won because Miami gave way more effort and fight than I expected them to.  They are playing hard, and QB Matt Moore is making smart throws and looks much improved.  The Fish look dangerous.
  • And in the nightcap, Baltimore decided to tune up San Francisco whenever they had the football, and San Fran never found an answer, and with that, the Ravens just gave the blueprint on how to beat the 49ers.  Ten team sacks on Alex Smith made sure that the San Fran popgun offense couldn't gather any momentum to mount a comeback on the Ravens.  Seriously, did every member of the Niners o-line eat some tainted turkey that day or something?  It was the physical low-scoring battle that I expected, but it seemed like SF didn't expect that kind of pass rush at all.
  • There's a curse on the Houston Texans quarterbacks, but it held off long enough for them to build an insurmountable lead on the hapless Jaguars.  And by insurmountable, I mean ten points.  It was another bad offense for the Texans D to dine on and pad their great stats.  But make no mistake, Houston has a problem.  The great T.J. Yates at QB resulted in no points for the Texans after the 2nd-quarter shoulder crumbling of Matt Leinart.  But on the other hand, I was counting on Leinart to fuck up the game in the 2nd half, which is his move, so maybe it was a blessing in disguise.  And it doesn't matter who's at QB for Jacksonville, they are just terrible.
  • In a sloppy, turnover-filled affair, Tennessee discovered a new old way to beat Tampa Bay--the running game.  Chris Johnson finally found a defense bad enough to run on and racked up 190 yards on the ground.  And when the Titans needed a 4th-down end-zone pass to complete the comeback, the Bucs allowed that as well.  Never underestimate Tampa's ability to allow their opponent any offense they may need to get a win.
  • Cleveland's effort almost caught Cincinnati by surprise and created a big upset.  Almost.  The Bengals righted the ship and found some big passes from Andy Dalton to his best friend A.J. Green.  Cincy's not good enough to take opponents lightly yet.  The big class drop allowed them to get the victory, but their lack of intensity resulted in the Browns covering the number.
  • Speaking of lack of intensity, the Jets looked like they lost their passion coming off the loss to Tim Tebow a week and a half ago.  First, let me break down the Stevie Johnson Celebration Controversy.  Johnson, the Buffalo WR, scored a TD near the end of the 1st half and proceeded to mock Jets WR Plaxico Burress by dancing and then grabbing his leg as if he'd been shot, then he mocked the silly Jets arms-extended flying celebration, then he fell to the ground to symbolize crashing Jets, which was perhaps a little harsh in New York.  The falling to the ground resulted in a 15-yard kickoff penalty, and yes, the Jets scored on the ensuing possession.  But here are some facts being ignored--the Jets started their possession on the Bills 36-yard line due to the Buffalo kicker completely shanking the kickoff, which I don't think I've ever seen before...followed by a personal foul for hitting Jets QB Mark Sanchez in the head...followed two plays later by a TD pass, ironically, to Burress because the Bills secondary totally blew the coverage.  Many TV pundits jumped on Stevie, saying that it was his celebration that allowed the Jets to easily score on the next possession.  To that I say, did you just read what happened after the celebration?  NONE OF THAT WAS STEVIE JOHNSON'S FAULT, DICKHEADS.  Other observations from the game: Good for Sanchez that he discovered his TE Dustin Keller (after I cut Keller from my fantasy team), but Sanchize once again looked bad overall, throwing into double and triple coverage over the middle multiple times; had to be the worst 4-TD game for a QB evah; the Jets CBs continue to be overrated and seemed to have no coverage ability if Gang Green's front seven wasn't rushing the passer; and Stevie can be blamed for dropping the game-winning TD, just as he did in the end zone last year against Pittsburgh.
  • Why, Hanie, why?  Many Chicago Bears fans had to be screaming that after replacement QB Caleb Hanie came out in Oakland trying to make passes that he shouldn't have tried to make, and wound up throwing the rock to the Raiders three times in the 1st half alone.  The Bears defense made new use of the bend but don't break defensive philosophy, letting Oakland drive within FG range over and over and over again but not letting them into the end zone.  So Oakland's kicker Sebastian Janikowski calmly nailed six FGs and racked up the points that Hanie and the Bears couldn't get in any fashion.  Matt Forte continued to look tired overall, despite a big run.  And Hanie had an all-timer to end the game--he rushed up to the ball with four seconds left at his own 46-yard line trailing by five, and there's only one play in that spot, which is to spike the ball to set up the Hail Mary.  But Hanie faked the spike, looking for God knows what, then spiked the ball when the pass rush came for him, which is intentional grounding when you don't spike it immediately, which ended the game.  Say it with me in a Texas drawl--Caleb is our quarterback...
  • The "FIRE ANDY!" chants started up in Philadelphia, never a good sign for a head coach named Andy.  The Eagles had early success against New England, jumping off to a 10-0 lead thanks to no Patriots pass rush and the worst pass defense in the league (NE ranked #32 even before Vince Young tallied 400 yards on Sunday).  Here's the three-play momentum shift in the 2nd quarter: Tom Brady goes deep to Deion Branch for 63 yards, NE rushing TD to take a 14-10 lead, then Young on the next play after kickoff throws a deep ball for DeSean Jackson that gets picked off.  Sucked the air right out of Lincoln Financial Field and the entire City of Brotherly Love.  Then New England sped up the tempo and executed the Eagles right off the field.  And speaking of DeSean, what the fuck is his problem?  He had a few passes go right through his hands, and others where he didn't exactly fight for the ball.  He's starting to approach that Terrell Owens "Just go home" level of toxicity.
  • You know, the sample size for Denver's own personal Jesus is still somewhat small.  His 5-1 record as a starter still only equals six games, and only the very best (or very worst) reveal themselves completely after six games.  I'll give Tim Tebow credit for this--motherfucker has some great football instincts.  He knows just when to pitch the ball, just when to throw it up for a wide-open WR, just when to truck someone in the open field.  His mechanics and throwing prowess are still vomit-inducing.  But his ability to create plays out of nothing is rather impressive.  I still wouldn't dare name him my permanent starter, but I've always said I'd love to have him on the team in a role other than QB.  Now, all that said, let's not overlook the real reason Denver is back in the hunt for a division title, which anyone not a retard knows is the Broncos defense.  The pass rush is ferocious, led by rookie Von Miller, and the rush defense is getting stronger each week (they stopped Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert when they had to).  Denver had a little help in winning at San Diego, that being bad coaching by the Chargers and Norv Turner.  In regulation, SD was close to midfield and had one timeout with the game tied, but instead of calling the TO and setting up the Hail Mary, they purposefully let the clock run as the crowd booed and settled for OT.  Then they conservatively ran the ball in OT trying to set up the game-winning FG, but it was still a 53-yard attempt, and it was wide.  Or maybe it wasn't bad coaching, maybe SD QB Philip Rivers is really hurt, as is being rumored, and Norv knows he doesn't have the arm strength to go for big plays downfield.  If that's the case, then I don't care how tenured Rivers is, get him the fuck off the field and get another QB out there.
  • We lost the Pittsburgh pick because Pittsburgh was incredibly out of sync on offense coming out of the bye and couldn't take advantage of Kansas City's horrible offense to cover the spread.  Despite that, they succeed in covering if RB Rashard Mendenhall doesn't fumble a sure TD near the goal line, but hey, shit happens.  What was important to the Steelers was that they overcome that and missing safety Troy Polamalu, who got concussed early, to get the victory, and they did that.  But Jason and I needed them to overcome that to win by 11 points, and that wasn't in the cards.
  • And we lost the New York Giants pick because New Orleans found a rhythm and got in mad sync coming off the bye.  I mean, mad sync.  It was a reminder of how great Drew Brees and the Saints offense can be when they're clicking.  They pick on the weakness of the opponent as well as anyone in the league.  New York is desperately seeking not Susan, but linebackers who can cover downfield, and almost all of Brees's passes were intermediate routes crossing in front of the confused Giants LB corps.  It was fun watching both New York and New Orleans fluster each other in the 1st quarter with various blitz packages, but clearly, Brees got loose and adjusted better than Eli Manning and the Giants.  That's two ugly losses in a row for the G-Men.  There's something wrong with their rushing game.  Eli's not having a career year only because he's gotten so much better, but also because he's having to throw much more then normal.  Ahmad Bradshaw's hurt and Brandon Jacobs isn't what he once was, and as a result, the #32 rushing team in the NFL after this game, in yards and yards per attempt, are the New York Football Giants.  For shame, G-Men.  For shame.
Week 12 Records--Dre 6-10, .375; Jay 8-8, .500
YTD Records--Dre 74-95-7, .438; Jay 86-83-7, .509

    Sunday, November 27, 2011

    2011 Week #12

    Here are the rest of Week 12's games, in much less detail.

    Fav Spread Dog

    Dre Jay


    ATL (6-4) Min (2-8)

    Atl Min
    Hou (7-3) JACK (3-7)

    Jack Hou
    TENN (5-5) 3    TB (4-6)

    Tenn Tenn
    STL (2-8) 1    Ariz (3-7)

    StL Ariz
    CIN (6-4) 7    Cle (4-6)

    Cin Cin
    NYJ (5-5) Buf (5-5)

    NY Buf
    Car (2-8) IND (0-10)

    Ind Car
    SEA (4-6) 3    Wash (3-7)

    Sea Sea
    OAK (6-4) 3    Chi (7-3)

    Oak Oak
    NE (7-3) PHI (4-6)

    NE NE
    SD (4-6) Den (5-5)

    Den SD

    Sun. Nite




    Pit (7-3) 10½ KC (4-6)

    Pit Pit

    Mon. Nite



    NO (7-3) 7    NYG (6-4)

    NY NY

    Some of our thoughts and observations included:

    • Of course, we start the week with a split on Thanksgiving.  We'll probably split the six games we're opposite on Sunday.  We come out versus each other with Vikings-Falcons.  Jason picks the Vikings to stay close to Atlanta because the Dirty Birds haven't shown Jay an ability to close out games this season.  He says it feels like a 27-19 type of game.  I can see the 27 for Atlanta, but with no Adrian Peterson, I wonder where Jason gets the 19 for Minnesota.  I will take Atlanta because this is the kind of game you get fat on if you're any damn good.
    • Get used to me loving the home team this week.  I go on a streak of nine in a row before I start going with the road team.  I wasn't setting out to do that.  I actually checked last year's Week 12 record ATS for the league thinking that it's much better to be at home after Thanksgiving because you didn't have the big meal and family gathering and then have to separate from that and hop a plane.  It sure the fuck didn't matter last year because home teams were a stunning 4-9 versus the number.  But I left the stats alone and went with my gut for most of these picks.  Here's home love #2 for me--it's Jacksonville against Matt Leinart making his first start for Houston.  I have nothing but bad memories of Leinart's prior attempts to be an NFL starting QB.  So I'll go with the Jags to spring the upset.  I love love love the under.  Jason will take the Texans because they're not the Colts, and they won't totally crumble upon losing the starting quarterback like Indy has.  Hard to argue against the Houston D so far this season, but I fully believe in Leinart's ability to fuck up and give the Jags a win.
    • We both have home love for Tennessee because they're playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  Jason says the Bucs blew their wad at Green Bay, playing their asses off on offense in what was their Super Bowl.  He thinks they have nothing left for the Titans.  I'll agree with that theory, adding that Tampa's horrible defense is just what Matt Hasselbeck and Tennessee's middling offense needs.
    • It's clear that Arizona has one and only one play in their playbook: Throw a TD pass to Larry Fitzgerald.  It's all QB John Skelton knows how to do, and it's all his backup did when he came in last week due to Skelton's ineffectiveness.  So I'll give the Cardinals that seven points right off the bat because they get the ball to Fitz for a score once every game.  Then I have to evaluate the opposing D to see if Arizona has a chance to score more than that seven.  St. Louis doesn't have the greatest defense, but they can rush the QB, which seems to be Skelton's biggest issue, and I think the Rams can hold the Cards to that seven while hopefully scoring ten themselves behind RB Steven Jackson.  Jason thinks St. Louis may only score six.  So if nothing else, we love this under as well.
    • I'd like to introduce a new term into the IMLD lexicon.  I've used it many times.  It's called "Class Drop."  It comes from the racehorse handicappers milieu, and it defines what happens when a horse which has competed against a certain high level of horses takes a class drop for some reason and races horses on a lower level.  That horse is usually the hot pick to bet, no matter how bad it's raced in its life.  The thought is, this horse has been running with the big boys, and even though it's seen a lot of the asses of the big boys, it's still gotta be better than the lower-class horses it's gonna race today.  Well, Jason and I are taking the Cincinnati Bengals to cover a TD over the Cleveland Browns because Cincy the last two weeks played Pittsburgh and Baltimore, and Cleveland is quite the class drop.  Jason says it's like a major league hitter getting dropped to AAA and raking, like Joe Borchard liked to do for the Chicago White Sox.  Couldn't touch major league pitching, but drop him a class, and look out!
    • It's not easy for me to take Rex Ryan, Mark Sanchez--or Total Fraud to Jason--and the New York Jets after what they allowed Tim Tebow to do to them in prime time.  But no one is playing worse football over the last few weeks than the Buffalo Bills, and that's with their best player, RB Fred Jackson, who just got put on I.R.  We've decided that the song that should play to begin the DVD chronicling their season should be Tom Petty's "Freefallin'."  Yet Jason will pick them just because they're not the Jets.
    • I struggled with the Panthers-Colts game before going with Indianapolis to finally break through.  If the Colts can't do damage against this shit defense, they really will go 0-16.  Carolina has the #7 offense in the league.  They're 2-8.  That should tell you all you need to know about how bad their defense is.  Not only will Jason ride with Cam Newton and the Panthers to squash the Colts, but he even threw out one of those foot-in-mouth deals that I always throw out:  I jokingly said that Curtis Painter could put up 300 yards on this D, and Jason said if Painter throws for 300 in this game, he'd pick him up for his fantasy team.  Now, as noble as that is, I'm of the mind that next time, I should require that he have to start Painter as well for the rest of the season.  Having him riding your pine for a week or two is as good as nothing.
    • Seattle as a favorite is a strange sight, but they're playing a coach so brain-dead that he thought John Beck could be the answer at QB. We'll take the Seahawks to cover over the Redskins, with the 12th Man roaring loud enough to cause some INTs from Sexy Rexy.
    • Jason was all set to go with the Bears to cover a big number in the Black Hole, but they're only getting three points at Oakland despite the franchise QB taking a seat.  We can't tell if this is love for what Chicago has built this season or lack of trust in Hue Jackson and Carson Palmer.  But we're going to have to side with the Raiders covering over Caleb Hanie and the poor Bears.  I have another angle as to why you should be wary of Chi-Town the rest of the way.  People may think that losing Jay Cutler is no sweat because the Bears will simply redouble their rushing efforts in order to ride the great season of Matt Forte and take pressure away from Hanie.  Well, Forte's last three games read 133 to 64 to 57 rushing yards.  Isn't it possible, if not probable, that Forte has been used so much the first half of the year that he's starting to wear down, Chicago Bears?
    • We agree on New England to step on the Philadelphia Eagles.  How Jason picked them last week, I don't know, but he didn't press his luck again.  For this pick, I consult the injury report, which says that the Patriots are going to be without two secondary players in Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung.  Bad news, right?  More open passing lanes for Vince Young?  Wait, Philly could be missing a couple of guys in the secondary as well.  Their names are Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.  And Philly gets to play Tom Brady and the Pats with an altered secondary?  Yeah.  Advantage NE.
    • I have to order my Jesus #15 Denver jersey before they're sold out.  Yes, I'm picking that idiot Tebow over the San Diego Chargers on the road.  I'm sticking to my vow to pick Tebow when he faces a team that will allow him to run on them.  San Diego is giving up 4.4 yards per carry, so they will be happy to escort Tebow around the left end and into the end zone, if he requests that of them. Combine that with how stinky QB Philip Rivers has been for the Bolts and the hot Denver pass rush, and I feel compelled to select Tebow as the Chosen One.  That 5½-point spread against the Broncos shows that not all the nation believes in Timmy.  Of course, as Jason points out, he shouldn't be popular among the gamblers and line-setters in Vegas.  After all, it's Sin City.  Ba dum-bum.  Jay's not a believer in Tebow and the high-school offense at all.  Maybe this is the time for San Diego to get right.
    • We both like the Steelers off a bye to squoosh Kansas City, or as I'm calling them for the rest of the year if I can remember it, Kansas Shitty.
    • And we're both on the Giants Monday night in New Orleans despite the Saints coming off a bye.  Jason actually picks New York to win.  I can't go that far, but I like them to cover a TD because they have to be embarrassed letting limp-wristed Vince Young punk them last week and are going to play desperate because they really need this game, and Jason thinks the Giant pass rush will be on a mission to take down QB Drew Brees.  I was set to go with New Orleans until I saw that line.  Just feels like a back-and-forth affair that ends with a FG.  And sound the alarm, I'll leave you with a STAT ALERT:  Don't think Eli Manning can't throw with Brees if the game is a shootout.  Eli's Giants are 5th in the league in passing, gaining a whopping 8.3 yards per attempt.  That's actually more ypa than Brees this year.

    Wednesday, November 23, 2011

    2011 Gobble Gobble

    Happy Thanksgiving to you faithful readers.  All three of you.  Here are the Turkey Day picks to kick off Week 12.


    Fav Spread Dog

    Dre Jay



    Thanksgiving



    GB (10-0) DET (7-3)

    Det Det
    DAL (6-4) 7    Mia (3-7)

    Dal Mia

    Thanksgiving Nite



    BAL (7-3) SF (9-1)

    Bal SF

    • Jason's rationale for all of his picks were very similar:  "It feels like a close game."  He's taking the three underdogs because he thinks all three spreads are a little too big.  I'm going with the upset in the first contest and picking the Lions to knock off the Packers.  I said yesterday that Green Bay's defense was going to cost them the perfect season, and it almost did against a piss poor Buccaneers offense.  I think the Lions can really light them up through the air and with a renewed ground attack, and the Detroit defense, which concussed Aaron Rodgers last year, will come out ready to do something similar to him on the national stage and send a message.
    • I'm going with all three home teams for different reasons.  Detroit has an emotional component of wanting to prove themselves as contenders.  Dallas wants to show that they're not soft and mentally weak, specifically their QB Tony Romo, and I think they have a nice opponent to beat up and make their point.  Yes, Miami has been ballin' lately, but they've been slaying bums--Kansas City, Washington, and last week, Buffalo.  Jason will take the Fish anyway because they have been much improved lately.
    • And I'll take Baltimore in the Family Feud edition of Thursday Night Football because I can't pick San Francisco on the road against such a physically tough opponent in the Eastern time zone on a short week.  It feels like a low-scoring punching contest between two fierce defenses, and I'm taking Joe Flacco and his weapons to make a play over Alex Smith and his weapons.  If the game were out west, I probably would see it differently.  Jason actually sees a high-scoring game, and he thinks that hook may come into play, so he'll land on the side of the underdogs.  At 9-1, it's hard to go against Coach Insane these days, but as he said himself, the Niners really got the short straw for this matchup.

    Tuesday, November 22, 2011

    2011 Week 11: What I Learned

    Jason puts an impressive week together to get back over .500 for the season.  I'm just happy that things are starting to look clearer to me.  The teams that are good are becoming obvious, and the teams that stink are showing themselves as well.  Maybe I'm delusional, but I feel good about the rest of this season going forward.

    • Games in no detail:  Buccaneers-Packers (that Green Bay D is gonna cost them a game or two before the season's over), Bills-Dolphins (no resistance by Buffalo the last three weeks running now), Seahawks-Rams (Steven Jackson shut down equals easy Seattle win), Chiefs-Patriots (a massacre as expected).
    • I'm starting to run out of adjectives to describe Denver Broncos football under Tim Tebow.  Abomination.  Dreadful.  Vomit-inducing.  "But he's a winner!"  Yeah, except when he doesn't win.  He's up to 4-1 now as a starter after the New York Jets caved last Thursday night, and the Jets are the best team he's beaten.  And I'm now convinced that the Jets aren't any good.  So Tebow's wins are over the Jets, Raiders, Chiefs, and Dolphins.  Really?  Anyway, the game was a total eyesore, two quarterbacks bumbling and fumbling around until one ran through the vaunted Jets D on a 95-yard drive to win the game.  The funniest scene was Denver exec John Elway clapping in his suite after Tebow's game-winning TD run, while everyone could read the thought bubble over his head:  "I can't believe this faggot just won the game like that..."  As for the Jets, they can fuck off.  Rex Ryan, his wife, Total Fraud, the whole lot of 'em.  They will never amount to anything.  You do not shoot off your mouth for years about your great defense and then let a guy who can't throw beat you.  They oughta be ashamed of themselves.
    • Oh, that Panthers D.  Carolina sprinted out to a big lead in Detroit, and I thought I had an upset pick all sewn up.  But Matthew Stafford and, of all people, RB Kevin Smith picked it up and came back and knocked off the Panthers by racking up seven--seven!!--TDs.  Some of those were set up by Cam Newton INTs (he really needs to avoid the deep middle), but really, if Carolina had any kind of defensive principles, the Lions would have been routed.  It's never a good sign when your defense has guys taking a knee between plays in the 2nd quarter.  It's so odd because coach Ron Rivera was widely praised for assembling the #1 defense in the league last year in San Diego.  So far, the magic has not followed him to Charlotte.
    • Move along folks, nothing new of note in the Cowboys-Redskins game.  Rex Grossman gave Washington a chance with his arm because he's much better at QB than John Beck, Dallas came back on the Skins D because they can't cover nor tackle, back and forth they went, Washington actually had the game won in OT except the kicker gagged, and Dallas wound up with the win.  I said I was scared of this pick because of Grossman, and I should have been.  The Cowboys and Redskins are who we thought they were.
    • In order for Maurice Jones-Drew to lead the Jaguars to a win over the Browns, two things had to happen:  1, the Jacksonville defense couldn't let Cleveland actually have the more productive runner, and 2, the Jags had to use MJD when they absolutely needed him the most, which was at the Browns 3-yard line with the clock expiring.  But something named Chris Ogbonnaya outrushed Pocket Hercules, and rookie QB Blaine Gabbert had several chances to score the winning TD but failed on all of his throws.  They never thought to run Jones-Drew and try to score that way, and that's how the #31 offense in the NFL loses to the #32 offense.  Pathetic.
    • And in order for the Vikings to knock off the Raiders, Adrian Peterson would probably have had to have a huge day running the ball, but he hurt himself in the 1st fucking quarter.  I didn't lose the pick just because of that, though.  Minnesota lost to Oakland because their pass defense was absolutely terrible.  When Jared Allen doesn't have a good day rushing the passer, the Vikings are just horrendous trying to defend the air attack.  Minnesota racked up a bunch of turnovers as well, helping Oakland to a short field for many of their scoring drives.  The Christian Ponder comeback attempt was interesting to watch because he displayed better running skill and speed than any of Peterson's replacements.  But they came up short.  I'm still not a Carson Palmer fan.
    • I have to once again tip my cap to the Cincinnati Bengals, who made a good showing of themselves against better competition than they have faced in the first half of the season.  Baltimore took advantage of Bengals CB Leon Hall's absence to pick apart the Cincy secondary.  Any time Joe Flacco needed a big play, he took it by launching the ball to Anquan Boldin or Torrey Smith.  Cincy's QB, Andy Dalton, is really impressing me.  In a very hostile environment and missing his best WR, A.J. Green, Dalton made smart plays when in trouble to get rid of the ball and survive to make a play on the next snap.  He's not dumb, you gotta give him that.  And he made great use of the WRs left over, like Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell.  The three-play sequence to start the 4th quarter would crush any team's spirit.  The Bengals tried to run an option because they think Dalton's Tim Tebow apparently, and that didn't work; Dalton then threw an INT; and Flacco immediately went deep on play action to Smith for a long TD.  And yet, Cincinnati was right there at the end, driving for the tying TD.  But the Baltimore D was suffocating and kept sacking Dalton over and over until there was no time left.  A tough loss, but I think Cincy will stick around in the playoff race for a very long time.
    • Another ho-hum trouncing of a bad team by San Francisco as they prepare to visit the saner Harbaugh on Thanksgiving night.  I only want to go into detail about one aspect of this one: What happens if Alex Smith actually finds a rhythm with Michael Crabtree?  How good is SF at that point?  Crabtree has been injured slash ineffective for most of his career, but in this game he goes 7 catches for 120.  If he ever puts it all together, that's trouble.
    • How about Jason and me pulling a win-cover combo out of our asses in the Tennessee-Atlanta game?  Rarely do we both nail a game where we take the favorite to win but the underdog to cover.  How did it happen when the Titans were so far behind most of the game?  Jake Locker, baby!  Titans QB Matt Hasselbeck got his elbow tweaked in the 3rd quarter trying to lead a comeback that was sure to fail because he was off rhythm all game.  But then Locker comes in and provides a missing element, which is, he can move in the pocket laterally and avoid the Falcons pass rush, allowing receivers to get open on broken coverage.  There was once again no running game to balance things for Tennessee, so this kid was going to be the only way they mounted a comeback, and he couldn't finish the job only because the D let Atlanta run out the clock.  I vote Locker to start the rest of the season myself.  Why the fuck not?
    • The only thing people will talk about after the San Diego-Chicago game is how screwed the Bears are now that Jay Cutler will be lost for the rest of the year with a broken thumb.  The game was something to behold because it was two gunslingers in Cutler and Philip Rivers renewing an old rivalry and just scorching the opposing secondaries.  I wasn't taking Chicago to go far in the playoffs anyway because they give up so many yards in an attempt to not give up big plays behind them.  But they can still be very dangerous because of how well-coached the defenders are at creating takeaways.  As for the Chargers, they appear to be beyond screwed, but that division is very winnable, and Rivers and WR Vincent Jackson may finally be getting on the same page.
    • I wonder how Jason will justify that Eagles win over the Giants on Sunday night.  The joy of picking games out of your ass "because it makes no sense" is that you don't have to justify it.  But I'll try to make sense of it anyway.  Those crappy, Tebow-like, fluttering, limp-wristed throws from Philadelphia QB Vince Young went well for the Eagles because most of them were underneath and the New York linebackers seemed to have no clue how to defend them.  Young wasn't able to get many throws far downfield, but the likes of Brent Celek and Riley Cooper were having a ball catching shit under the Giants coverage and taking the balls a long way.  That was just bad football by Young.  And he won.  So you can imagine how bad the Giants and Eli Manning played.  Manning made a big downfield throw trying to mount a comeback on his last drive, and the very next play, he got blowed up and fumbled the ball.  Fuck.  And a fantasy element to this game as well for me:  I lost this week to Jason's mom, and by only 3 points.  I had Eli Manning, who played like shit except when he was finding Victor Cruz for big plays.  I own Victor Cruz.  He was chillin' on my bench for this game.  Oops.  And that wasn't even the killer.  The killer was the fact that I also own LeSean McCoy, who broke out with a huge run at the end of the game that saw him reach the NY 2-yard line...and then get shoestring-tackled before he could score.  Philly then kneeled to end the game.  Excruciating night for me all around.

    Week 11 Records--Dre 6-7-1, .462; Jay 9-4-1, .692
    YTD Records--Dre 68-85-7, .444; Jay 78-75-7, .510

      Week 11 ATS Recap: Blount Force Trauma

      Dre went back to his stats this week. It showed.



      • Broncos (+6) 17, Jets 13 (Thursday) - Jason winner, Dre loser - A pregame poll on NFL Network asked which starting QB in this game you'd rather have...Jesus or Total Fraud? Tebow got 70% of the vote. Not exactly a vote of confidence for the Sanchize. As it's been going, Tebow looked putrid for 55 minutes and the Bronco defense (including a monster game from Von Miller) held the Jets off balance long enough to let Tebow get one last drive. Staring at a 95 yard road to victory, and amassing just over 70 yards offense on the last 10 drives COMBINED, what do you think happened? Tebow goes the whole 95 yards, running in a TD on a scramble off a Jets all-out blitz. Nobody got home on the blitz, Tebow made one guy miss, and the Jets find their playoff hopes fizzling.

      • Lions 49 (-7), Panthers 35 - Jason winner, Dre loser - The Lions did it again. Come back from a big deficit, that is. Down 24-7 early in the second quarter, the Lions unleashed 6 touchdowns over the final 33 minutes of play, including what might be one of the best fantasy efforts of all time for a player owned in no leagues. That player would be Kevin Smith, and no I'm not talking about Silent Bob. Smith went for over 200 yards of offense and 3 touchdowns. Not bad for a guy claimed off the scrap heap. Carolina competed again, staking their claim as the best 2-8 team IN HISTORY!

      • Packers 35, Buccaneers 26 (+9) - Both losers - This had all the makings of a trap for the Packers heading into a big Turkey Day game at Detroit. The Pack lived up to that, allowing the Bucs to hang around until Aaron Rodgers found a streaking Jordy Nelson up the left sideline to put the dagger in Tampa. I'd rather talk about LaGarrette Blount, who did his best Marshawn Lynch impersonation on a 54 yard TD run. He had more help than Lynch, and didn't stiffarm a defender into next week like Lynch did, but wow, what an impressive run.

      • Cowboys 27, Redskins 24 (+7) OT - Both losers - Looks like we misunderestimated who could be the stoopider team on Sunday.

      • Dolphins 35 (-1½), Bills 8 - Both winners - OK, we figured the Bills were on their way to irrelevance for the season. But I didn't see it playing out like THIS! Miami, save for a putrid collapse against Denver, has played almost 4 solid games in a row, and it wouldn't shock me if Miami is ahead of Buffalo in the standings come seasons end.

      • Browns 14 (-1), Jaguars 10 - Jason winner, Dre loser

      • Raiders 27 (+1), Vikings 20 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Memo to the Vikings: don't expect to win many games when you turn it over 5 times AND lose your best player to an ankle injury. That being said, the Vikes made a valiant second half surge to make this game much more competetive than it needed to be. And thanks to Oakland, for saving us a week of "Tebow is in first place" madness.

      • Ravens 31, Bengals 24 - PUSH - The Bengals put up almost 500 yards of offense on a Ray-Ray-less Raven D. Andy Dalton threw for 373 yards without his best receiver in A.J. Green. So how'd Cincy lose? As is almost always the case, the turnover bug plagued the Bengals, and Baltimore did just enough with them to escape with a win.

      • Seahawks 24 (+3), Rams 7 - Dre winner, Jason loser - I called this one for the Rams, citing they had the best player on the field in Steven Jackson (I stole Dre's strategy). It failed, as on this day, the Rams were no match for Beast Mode himself, and Tavaris Jackson won the battle of who could suck less between he and Sam Bradford.

      • Niners 23 (-10), Cardinals 7 - Both winners - San Fran's offense and special teams looked awful for the first half, allowing the Cards to hang around a bit. Unfortunately for the Cards offense, they had to occupy the same field as the Niner defense, who abused the boys from the desert just about they way Dre and I thought they would.

      • Falcons 23, Titans 17 (+6½) - Both winners - Credit where credit is due. Dre and I almost NEVER win these picks where we pick a team to win but NOT to cover. Not only did the Falcons not cover, it was the Friendly Neighborhood Hook that provided us with an oh-so-cheap win. Thanks, Jake Locker. Locker, spelling an injured Matt Hasselbeck, brought the Titans back from a big deficit and got a nice late TD to cover the number. Once the Falcons knocked Hasselbeck out, you could almost see them take the foot off the accelerator, put on the cruise control, and hang on for dear life as Locker led the failed comeback.

      • Bears 31 (-3½), Chargers 20 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Just about the time I jump off the Bears, Dre jumps on them, and promptly breaks Jay Cutler's thumb. Nice work, Dre. So I'm wondering, where are all the "Jay Cutler is a pussy" tweets? And to Bear fans whining about Cutler being out, this is what you wanted isn't it? Caleb Hanie taking meaningful snaps? Good luck with that.

      • Eagles 17 (+5½), Giants 10 - Jason winner, Dre loser - No Vick? No Maclin? Vince Young starting? Load me up on the Eagles, baby! The more things went wrong for the "Dream Team," the more I loved them this week. There was ZERO pressure on Philly perform, so they did. The offense moved the ball well enough, and the Eagle disappearing run defense held the Giants to 30 yards on the ground. The Eagles also went back to their best player on offense, LeSean McCoy, to pound it out on the ground. Maybe Vick going down was good for the Eagles? For one week, it was.

      • Patriots 34 (-14½), Chiefs 3 - Both winners - I could sum up this entire matchup in two words: Tyler Palko.

      With a 9-4-1 effort, I once again escape "Expert" territory and get back over .500 for the season, while Dre's comeback stalled for a week, giving back all the ground he gained in week 10, going 6-7-1.

      Sunday, November 20, 2011

      2011 Week #11

      This week, I'm going to try to mix my gut picks with some stat-based picks and see what I can whip up.  Most of my picks are gut picks, but some are close games where I needed to consult some stats to make the difference.  But a couple are just a matter of taking the team with the better player on the field.  Here are our picks for Week 11:


      Fav Spread Dog

      Dre Jay



      Thu. Nite




      NYJ (5-4) 6    DEN (4-5) Den 17-13
      NY Den

      Sunday




      DET (6-3) 7    Car (2-7)

      Car Det
      GB (9-0) 14    TB (4-5)

      GB GB
      Dal (5-4) 7    WASH (3-6)

      Dal Dal
      MIA (2-7) Buf (5-4)

      Mia Mia
      CLE (3-6) 1    Jack (3-6)

      Jack Cle
      MIN (2-7) 1    Oak (5-4)

      Min Oak
      BAL (6-3) 7    Cin (6-3)

      Bal Bal
      STL (2-7) 3    Sea (3-6)

      Sea StL
      SF (8-1) 10    Ariz (3-6)

      SF SF
      ATL (5-4) Tenn (5-4)

      Tenn Tenn
      CHI (6-3) SD (4-5)

      Chi SD

      Sun. Nite




      NYG (6-3) Phi (3-6)

      NY Phi

      Mon. Nite



      NE (6-3) 14½ KC (4-5)

      NE NE

      Some of our thoughts and observations included:

      • We're going head-to-head right off the bat, as Jason will pick the Lions to rebound from being Sanduskied at Chicago last week and beat up on a weak Panthers unit.  Jay thinks the Lions are due to whip someone.  They are loving being the bullies and picking on the weaker teams, and Carolina, by record, is a weak team.  But I think, like any bully, that Detroit will shrink off when someone pops them in the mouth back, and Cam Newton seems to be the type of guy who doesn't take any shit from anybody.  I will pick Cam to bounce back from a bad game last week and pop the reeling Lions.  In a battle of QBs needing to come back from crappy games, between Cam and China Doll, give me Carolina to win.
      • No stats needed to pick Green Bay to keep rolling.  Tampa's defense should provide no resistance for Aaron Rodgers, plus it will be chilly Packer weather.  Give us the Pack, squoosh.
      • Cowboys and Indians scares me this time around because Washington is so down and so vulnerable that they are in prime position to strike and knock off Dallas.  Rex Grossman got his gig back, and you just know he's ready to throw it all around and prove that he never should have been stripped of his starting QB job.  And Jason's fond of saying how he can't take Dallas to cover big numbers because they seem to be too stupid to do so.  But Big D visiting the Redskins will amount to a sequel of Dumb and Dumberer, and we both will go with Dallas because right now, it seems Jason Garrett is a little less dumberer than the Shanahan Boyz.  Besides, Rex is shorthanded because Redskin WRs keep dropping like flies, and someone's gotta be open for Grossman to fling the ball to.  There aren't any healthy weapons left in the capital, unless Art Monk would like to unretire.
      • Why is 2-7 Miami favored over 5-4 Buffalo?  Because one team is playing like complete dung lately, and it ain't the Dolphins.  We'll take Miami to win its 3rd straight.  Buffalo might be done.
      • Jason's staying on that Cleveland Browns train, despite the train being headed for a cliff.  He'll take the Browns to find a way to beat an awful Jacksonville team.  I'll take the Jaguars to beat an awful Browns team because the best player on the field by far will be Jags RB Maurice Jones-Drew.
      • Why is 2-7 Minnesota favored over 5-4 Oakland?  Maybe it's lack of trust in Oakland QB Carson Palmer, maybe it's the Raiders missing starting RB Darren McFadden.  Jason can't go with the Vikings over Oakland even though that means he's siding with Carson Palmer.  After all, we can't have Tim Tebow and the Broncos in 1st place, can we?  We will if Oakland loses.  I'll pick Minnesota not just to create a week of "Tebow in 1st Place" stories on ESPN all day long, but because Minnesota will have the two best players on the field in RB Adrian Peterson and DE Jared Allen.
      • Hmmm, Baltimore isn't on the road and isn't playing a dogshit team?  We'll take 'em!  ( I add parenthetically that rookie QB Andy Dalton and Cincinnati will be without stud WR A.J. Green, and I'm not picking a rookie QB missing his best WR at the Baltimore D, even if the Ravens are without Ray Lewis.)
      • Shouldn't Roger Goodell make a ruling that the four NFC West teams can't play each other in the same week?  That just creates a couple of completely shitty matchups that make it that much harder to enjoy the sport.  But we pick everything here at IMLD.  The first NFC West "battle" has the Seahawks at the Rams, and Jason steals my logic here and takes the Rams because in RB Steven Jackson, they will have the best player on the field.  I refer to my stats for this one:  The Rams put their #16 run game against Seattle's #12 rush defense, which is only allowing 3.6 yards per carry.  I say the best player gets held in check, and I will take Seattle for a rare road win.
      • The next NFC West "duel" has the Cardinals getting big points at the 49ers.  No stats here.  San Fran's front seven on defense is great, they're limiting mistakes from QB Alex Smith, they're running the ball on anyone who wants to get in their way, and Arizona shouldn't be able to score more than the usual TD that John Skelton throws to Larry Fitzgerald, which is his only move.  Niners squoosh, and we love the under.
      • We both actually like Atlanta to get a win over Tennessee because they're the better team, but we like Tennessee to cover the spread.  The Titans showed some real fight last week in destroying Carolina, so it's hard to imagine them getting blowed out in the Georgia Dome.  Believe it or not, QB Matt Hasselbeck has been excellent this season, and his arm can keep the Titans in any game.  Well, maybe not any game, but this one.
      • Jason has a hunch that the Chargers are going to rise up and fire on the Bears because we're still waiting for the Chargers to make their annual push and because the Bears have their chests puffed out after killing Detroit and are prime for a letdown.  Why should I even try to justify my picking the Bears, who are clearly playing much, much better football than San Diego and probably should be a TD favorite?  All you need to know is, I just jumped on the Bears bandwagon after doubting them all year, and Jason has a hunch that they will lose.  What are you waiting for?  Go!  Go bet all you have on San Diego now!  Chicago is doomed!  Doomed, I say!
      • And now for our Replacement Quarterbacks In Prime Time portion of our program.  Sunday night, God--er, Vince Young--gets to take his talents to Jersey and lead the Dream Team--um, the Eagles--into Giants Stadium to take on Eli Manning and company.  Didn't Young throw one pass in a game earlier this year and have it intercepted?  Bad sign, I say, and I'll take the Giants.  Jason's going with Philly to win because, well, it's God!  And because it would make absolutely no sense.  And I'm scared to death of this pick as well.  It is indeed the kind of game Eli and coach Tom Coughlin find a way to lose because they are mentally weak and they check out in critical situations.  But Young has looked so lost since coming into the league that I cannot justify taking Philly to go to New York and beat a good Giants team.
      • On Monday night, everyone give a big warm reception to Tyler Palko!  *crickets*  Uh, okay...and now here's Tom Brady!!  *wild applause*  Yeah, there's no reason to think that whoever this Palko kid is has a chance, even if his Chiefs are playing New England, the worst pass defense in the league by the numbers.  It shouldn't matter.  Give us the Patriots to make it two Sanduskies in a row on Monday night, to go with the Packers anally raping the Vikings last week.  Hope Palko is quicker in the pocket than Sandusky is answering the seemingly simple question, "Are you sexually attracted to young boys?"  If he takes 16 seconds back there, even New England's pass rush will eventually get to him.

      Thursday, November 17, 2011

      Thu. Nite Jets @ Broncos

      Everybody get your chips down on the under for this one!  It's maybe the two worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL going head-to-head for everyone's viewing pleasure as Total Fraud and the New York Jets visit Jesus Christ and the Denver Broncos.  The Jets are a six-point favorite, and Jason will go with Jesus to walk on water and run on Gang Green and cover the number.  I feel like if the Jets are anywhere as good as they think they are, they will ignore the weariness of traveling on three days' rest from one night game to another and find a way to smother that high school Broncos offense.  Give me Total Fraud to cover, but not by much.  Repeat:  I LOVE the under.

      My Pick:  New York Jets 13-6

      Wednesday, November 16, 2011

      Week 10 ATS Recap: The Dark Side

      It's nice to see Dre come over to the dark side and pick games on feel and experience instead of stats. Now that he's had a nice week and made up a few games in the standings, he can go back to using his stats now as I need to make some games back up to pad this lead.



      • Raiders 24, Chargers 17 (Thurs Night) - Both losers - Micheal Bush gave the Raiders ground game a big boost, and Carson Palmer was able to throw the ball to his own team enough for the Raiders to grind out a short-week win at San Diego. With the Sunday results, the AFC West is all within one game of each other. Ick. Maybe the east coast wouldn't get all the media love if the teams is the Western divisions didn't suck so much ass.

      • Jaguars 17, Colts 3 - Dre winner, Jason loser - In the NFL, any team can win on any given sunday, unless that team is the Colts.

      • Broncos 17, Chiefs 10 - Both winners - Tim Tebow did his best Chris Weinke impersonation, going 2/8 passing and winning the game! In the least shocking news of the week, John Fox says that Tebow would be "screwed" in a conventional offense. Ya think?

      • Steelers 24, Bengals 17 - Both winners - Not quite the Sandusky we thought it would be, I came away from this game impressed with what Cincy was able to do against the Steelers. The Bengals are still not in the class of the elite teams. Yet.

      • Cowboys 44, Bills 7 - Both losers - If it wasn't for the collapse going on in Philly, maybe the Cowboys would be getting some more love for playing better ball of late. All of it wont matter because even a playoff push, or appearance, for Dallas still means Tony Romo will have to play in a pressure situation.

      • Saints 26, Falcons 23 (OT) - Both losers - All the focus is on the 4th down call in overtime by Mike Smith, but the reality was that the better team still won the game. Atlanta had to scramble down 10 late in the 4th quarter just to force OT. A better spot for the Falcons to have won the game would have been at the end of regulation with a 1st and goal inside of a minute. The Falcons couldn't win it then, and then were doomed by what? Guts? Fear? Who really knows? The better team won.

      • Rams 13, Browns 12 - Dre winner, Jason loser

      • Dolphins 20, Redskins 9 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Dre can keep picking the Redskins every week. I'll take the cheap wins.

      • Texans 37, Buccaneers 9 - Both winners - So Matt Schaub breaks his foot in garbage time, leaving the Texans with Matt Leinart to run their offense for what could be the rest of the season. Talk about snakebit: no Mario Williams, no Andre Johnson, no Arian Foster at times, and now no Matt Schaub. Know what that spells? No hope.

      • Titans 30, Panthers 3 - Both losers - Every time we write off Tennessee, they put together a nice game. Now with Houston reeling, this would be the time to the Titans to buck up and mount a second half surge.

      • Cardinals 21, Eagles 17 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Congratulations Philadelphia, you got lit up by John Skelton. Can you say Brady Quinn Done?

      • Seahakws 22, Ravens 17 - Both winners - Allow me to just copy/paste my Ravens vs. Steelers recap from last week: And we just had gotten done talking about how infuriating the Ravens are! This team is impossible to read. Lose to Jacksonville. Suck for three quarters against Arizona. So what are the chances a team that does those things goes into
        Heinz Field and beats the Steelers on a ballsy last minute TD drive? Zero, right? Fuck me, but the Ravens did it. NOW WATCH THEM GO TO SEATTLE AND LOSE THIS WEEK. JUST WATCH.

      • Bears 37, Lions 13 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Dre knew he was doomed as soon as I said I had a hunch on this one going to the Bears. The Bear Whisperer strikes in back to back weeks!

      • Niners 27, Giants 20 - Both losers - Looks like we gotta start giving the 49ers some respect as a good team in this league. The Giants moved the ball at will, but the game never got out of hand and the San Fran defense made plays when they needed to, giving Alex Smith opportunities to not-lose the game.

      • Patriots 37, Jets 16 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Even Rex Ryan is getting tired of Total Fraud. Took him long enough.

      • Packers 45, Vikings 7 - Dre winner, Jason loser - That was an all out Sandusky right there. Mike McQueary needed to stumble upon the rhythmic slapping the Pack was putting on the Vikes and put an end to it. Too soon?

      Tuesday, November 15, 2011

      2011 Week 10: What I Learned

       Oh, you damn right I'll put up a What I Learned column today after having a week over .500.  I have to, just to celebrate having a week over .500, which I had not done since Week 6.

      • Games in no detail:  Bills-Cowboys (Buffalo defense is free, freefallin'), Lions-Bears (Stafford sucked hard, and did he bust his finger before or after he started throwing helmets??), Rams-Browns (ick), Jaguars-Colts (Indy is by far the worst team in the NFL), Texans-Buccaneers (party's over Houston, your season is now in the hands of Matt Leinart!), Vikings-Packers (guess the "perfect season" talk should get fired up right about now).
      • The Thursday night game seemed to close the casket on what was the San Diego Chargers.  The Raiders came in missing a good RB and starting a bad QB, and the Bolts still couldn't get it together.  The reasons Carson Palmer was better than Philip Rivers were, Palmer managed to avoid throwing the ball to the opposition unlike Rivers, and Palmer kept tossing up jump balls deep until it worked.  It was a curious game plan, but it did eventually work.  I wouldn't bet on the Raiders having continued success doing that, but it looks like they can win the division if no one covers their receivers.
      • OMG, Tim Tebow and the Broncos set football back sixty years!  And they won!  Look, I'm the one who wondered whether Denver coach John Fox would insist on a more Tebow-friendly game plan while Tebow was starting, and Fox has answered the call.  It had to be tempting for Fox to let Tebow keep trying to run a real NFL offense with, you know, passes, and watch him drown under his own hype.  But professionalism took over, and Fox decided to let his coaches draw up game plans that relied heavily on the run in an attempt to set up defenses for a few surprise passes.  On Sunday, the Broncos got a great opponent upon whom they could execute that game plan, the Kansas City Chiefs, who have never been mistaken for an intelligent bunch of players or coaches.  Games have to be low-scoring for Denver to win like this, and the Chiefs obliged, botching drive after drive and giving Tebow and his guys hope.  Then, the big bomb over the top to Eric Decker for the long TD stunned everyone and gave Denver the lead for good.  I will still not pick Denver to beat a real team with this crap they're running, but hey, Jesus has a winning record so far, so we Tebow haters just have to deal.
      • Even though Jason and I were right in stating that the Bengals wouldn't hold up against the Steelers, I give them credit for turning in an inspired effort.  Cincinnati didn't give up at all.  Pittsburgh ran the same plays over and over against the Bengal D because they were working--I haven't seen so many bubble screens probably since Tebow at Florida--and Cincy had to make adjustments or else get blown out.  They adjusted, and they started hitting QB Ben Roethlisberger and changing field position, and eventually they came back and tied the game.  Then they realized that they were the Bengals and coughed up the football, allowing the Steelers to steal a win in Cincy.  For all the accolades, Bengals QB Andy Dalton is going to have to find some touch in order to have sustained success.  Pittsburgh eventually got wise to his style of firing the ball at his intended receiver as hard as possible and jumped into the passing lanes, getting a couple of INTs in the 4th quarter to put the game away.  Cincinnati is good, I admit it.  They're not as good as Pittsburgh.
      • Getting this out of the way now:  Atlanta coach Mike Smith made the right call in overtime against New Orleans.  He had a 4th-and-inches call to make at his own 30-yard line, and he went for it, and he didn't get it.  But it was the right call.  New Orleans has been shitty all year stopping anyone running.  Yes, they were much improved all day vs. the Falcons, but they still had not been stopping 4th-and-short plays.  You'd think Michael Turner could run for less than a yard, but he got stuffed.  Maybe QB Matt Ryan on a sneak was the smarter call.  But punting the ball back to Drew Brees and the Saints offense, who had been moving the ball effortlessly all day?  Not the right call.  Not to me, anyway.  As for the rest of the game, Atlanta should have lost in regulation.  They had poor run blocking for most of the game and the D was getting shredded by Brees and the play-action pass.  I can't stress enough how great Brees is when he gets in a rhythm with his tall WRs and TE Jimmy Graham.  They can be impossible to defend.  This race should be great to the end for the NFC South title because I'm not sure which is the better team.
      • It was back to Rex Grossman for the Shanahan Boyz and Washington in Miami, and nothing new was seen:  Rex had some nice downfield throws, actually moving the offense forward instead of laterally like John Beck, and then Rex threw the ball to the other team.  The reason Rex's mistakes cripple the Skins is because there's no defensive effort to counter the Rex screw-up.  Rex got to a Super Bowl making mistakes with the Bears because the Bears had a defense to counterbalance the screw-ups.  Washington has no defense.  They have decent pass rushers, linebackers who refuse to tackle, and cornerbacks who refuse to cover.  They made Davone Bess look like Jerry Rice and Reggie Bush look like Marcus Allen.  Miami's not a good offense at all, so it's not like I can say to pick the Skins when they're going against a bad offense so Rex's mistakes won't be capitalized upon.  I guess Washington is right now a pick only against the complete bottom-feeders on offense, like Jacksonville or Cleveland.
      • Tennessee outplayed Carolina so thoroughly that I wonder if Panthers QB Cam Newton was all there.  He played so slowly and scatterbrained that I'm concerned that perhaps he had a little too much fun during his bye week or something.  He was really bad on Sunday.  Something the Titans were doing on defense messed up his timing, and the whole team suffered for it.  And RB Chris Johnson finally had a good day, making the Panthers pay for their lax defensive effort.  In this battle of two rookie head coaches, one team was prepared and the other wasn't, so clearly we must rank Mike Munchak and the Titans above Ron Rivera and the Panthers.
      • Time to stick a fork in Michael Vick and the Philadelphia Eagles, which may confuse coach Andy Reid and make him hungry.  Just a horrible game by Vick and the rest of the team.  They're missing WR DeSean Jackson because he's being a prick about his contract situation, and the other decent WR, Jeremy Maclin, is hurt and ineffective.  Then it turns out Vick played like crap also because he had a couple of cracked ribs that he told no one about because he knew that would mean more Vince Young, which isn't good for anybody.  With all that, Philly still led Arizona in the 4th quarter, but the guys who actually inspired Young to call them the "dream team," the Eagles DBs, allowed Cardinals QB John Skelton to make plays downfield and eventually throw the winning TD.  Total bad play from every facet of the team, and that reflects very badly on the coaching staff.  I have a feeling we won't be seeing them back next season.
      • At least Baltimore had a little help playing down to their competition this time.  They didn't just lose because the QB played bad, or the defense wasn't interested; they lost because Ravens return man David Reed was on the take or something.  Two fumbles + two TDs for Seattle off those fumbles = a five-point Seahawks upset win.  Jason said he wouldn't be surprised if Seattle won, and he was right.  Really, Baltimore?  All the tough opponents on your schedule, and your three losses are Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Seattle?  Well, those are all road defeats, so if something can be learned, maybe it's don't go anywhere near the Ravens when they're visiting.
      • Lots to digest from the Giants-49ers battle.  That was some tough football played by both teams, and San Francisco deserves a ton of credit for getting the W.  The Giants pass game is clicking something fierce--early on, QB Eli Manning bobbled a snap and the intended receiver lost his shoe on the same play, and they still completed the pass.  But they couldn't finish the drives and had to settle for FGs.  Alex Smith showed some mustard on his throws that I didn't know he had.  He actually reminded me of a couple other QBs that I saw on Sunday in Andy Dalton and Mark Sanchez.  I think all three fire the ball way too hard to their receivers because they're afraid of the defense making a play if they don't zip the rock in as fast as possible.  But Smith also avoided the pass rush and had some big runs that might have slowed down the G-Men just a hair as the game wore on.  Major props go out to Anthony Dixon and especially Kendall Hunter for picking up the running slack for Niners stud Frank Gore, who did nothing in the 1st half before leaving with a knee injury.  There's no way SF wins without them.  Yet the Giants still had a chance, as Eli made his way down the field with his accurate passes before WR Mario Manningham broke off a route that he shouldn't have, allowing an INT at the end to seal the game.  New York is still a very tough team, and could have won this game.  But San Fran did, and at 8-1, they must be taken seriously.  That stout run defense and careful offensive game plan is very hard to defeat.
      • The other New York team didn't have a good Sunday either, but they should be much more concerned than the men in blue.  The Jets are going to force Total Fraud on the public as a legit Super Bowl contending QB if it's the last thing they do, and they're going to keep failing to make a Super Bowl.  I know that less talented guys have quarterbacked teams to Super Bowl titles, but those teams had monster defenses, and the Jets do not.  They won't always face Tom Brady and the New England offense in the playoffs, and besides, they seemed to have the key to defeating the Pats, but they left their keys at home Sunday.  Something clicked in the 2nd half, and Brady started running the offense as expertly as I've ever seen him run it.  It was an absolute clinic.  Every time the Jets plugged the box with linebackers, Brady threw it in the flat or over the middle on quick hitters, and when Gang Green put extra DBs on the field, Brady audibled to inside run plays for big yardage.  And that put the pressure on Sanchez to match Brady's output, and he just can't do it, even against the worst pass defense in the league.  I'm actually a little surprised that they didn't keep Sanchez throwing nothing but those first two passes he completed, an out route followed by a quick slant.  I wouldn't have him try anything else the whole fucking game.

      Week 10 Records--Dre 9-7, .573; Jay 6-10, .375
      YTD Records--Dre 62-78-6, .443; Jay 69-71-6, .493

      Sunday, November 13, 2011

      2011 Week #10

      Going with my gut didn't work for me on Thursday, but Jason lost with me too, so it's not just me.  So this week, I'm abandoning all stats.  That's right, it's a completely stat-free week!  I went with my gut on about half the picks, and on the others, I consulted my own "What I Learned" posts from a week and two weeks ago and tried to actually apply those lessons to these picks.  What a novel concept, huh?  Those picks will have my learned lesson listed below in the thoughts and observations section.  Here now, our picks for Week 10:

      Fav Spread Dog

      Dre Jay



      Thu. Nite




      SD (4-4) 7    Oak (4-4) Oak 24-17
      SD SD

      Sunday




      Jack (2-6) 3    IND (0-9)

      Jack Ind
      KC (4-4) 3    Den (3-5)

      Den Den
      Pit (6-3) CIN (6-2)

      Pit Pit
      DAL (4-4) Buf (5-3)

      Buf Buf
      ATL (5-3) 1    NO (6-3)

      Atl Atl
      CLE (3-5) StL (1-7)

      StL Cle
      MIA (1-7) 4    Wash (3-5)

      Wash Mia
      Hou (6-3) TB (4-4)

      Hou Hou
      CAR (2-6) Tenn (4-4)

      Car Car
      PHI (3-5) 14    Ariz (2-6)

      Ariz Phi
      Bal (6-2) SEA (2-6)

      Sea Sea
      CHI (5-3) Det (6-2)

      Det Chi
      SF (7-1) NYG (6-2)

      NY NY

      Sun. Nite




      NYJ (5-3) NE (5-3)

      NE NY

      Mon. Nite



      GB (8-0) 13    Min (2-6)

      GB Min

      Some of our thoughts and observations included:

      • In light of recent events at Penn State U., Jason and I would like to bring a new descriptor into the IMLD lexicon.  Along with calling a blowout as a "squoosh," we reserve the right to also refer to a blowout as "getting Sanduskied."  For instance, I'm picking the Jaguars to Sandusky the Colts, specifically RB Maurice Jones-Drew.  He should enjoy pulling down Indy's pants and sodomizing them from behind, because he's so good at it.  Jason needed only to hear that Jacksonville and their putrid passing game and QB Blaine Gabbert were not just favorites, but road favorites.  That was enough to push him towards Indianapolis getting their first victory.
      • And now for a long list of agreeable picks.  We like Denver at Kansas City because we feel foolish believing in the Chiefs last week against Miami after their big Monday night win over San Diego.  When the Chiefs lose, they don't just lose, they get Sanduskied.  And if Reggie Bush can do that to KC, what will the Broncos and their RB duo of Willis McGahee and Tim Tebow do?  What would Tebow do?  WWTD??  My Lesson Learned:  Kansas City, Week 7--"Oakland's 322 net yards was actually more than the Chiefs' 300," pointing to the Chiefs having defensive issues; Denver, Week 8--"Would you like to call some running plays for Mr. Tebow to take advantage of the one thing he knows how to do"?
      • We like Pittsburgh at Cincinnati because it's time for the Bengals to prove how real they are, which is to say not at all, and because Pittsburgh's gotta be mad after getting swept by the hated Ravens last week.  Jason never likes a Steelers opponent after a Steeler loss.  Bad timing for the other team.
      • We like Dallas to beat Buffalo but not cover the number.  Dallas remains too dumb to cover big numbers, and while 5½ isn't very big, it is against a decent team like the Bills, who are coming off that paddling by the Jets and should be looking for redemption.  My Lesson Learned:  Dallas, Week 8--"What Philadelphia did to Dallas was a thorough dismantling of another team...239 rushing yards?!?"
      • We like Atlanta to get it done at home against the Saints because Atlanta's looked hot, like as hot as any team under Green Bay.  They are clicking on offense, and New Orleans, as we know, is scuffling trying to stop the run.  Good luck stopping Michael Turner.  My Lesson Learned:  New Orleans, Week 8--"The Saints can't be trusted the rest of the year against a team that can run the ball at all."
      • Jason likes Cleveland to get it done against St. Louis.  He has no idea how the Browns score, but they do it and win games against really bad teams.  My viewpoint is that the Rams, however bad they may be, still aren't as bad as the Browns.  I'm taking a bad team over a worse team.
      • I struggled with Miami maybe getting their first home win over Washington.  Sure, the Redskins are horrible, but the Dolphins don't win at home.  They haven't won a home game since Michael Jackson was alive.  I split the difference in the end and took Miami to win but Washington to cover.  This feels like an overtime 3-point Dolphin win to me.  No stats, just feel baby.  19-16, write that shit down.  Jason will take Miami to cover because John Beck still makes him giggle, although we both have a funny feeling that the Shanahan Boyz will call on Sexy Rexy sometime during this one.  How much more Beck does one need to see?  My Lesson Learned:  Miami, Week 7--The Dolphins "did enough to win a game against a team without a QB who can actually get the ball down the field.  Well, for 55 minutes they did."
      • Houston is red hot right now, as Arian Foster and Ben Tate are making for a killer RB combo.  We'll go with the Texans over the Buccaneers because Houston is good and Tampa Bay is not.
      • Carolina isn't great, but they may be the best 2-6 team ever.  Would you want your favorite team to play them right now?  We'll take them over Tennessee because they're at least promising to be good soon, unlike the Titans.  Jason threw a stat at me to make up for all the stats I usually hit him with.  The Titans leading rusher this year is still Chris Johnson, but he has only 366 yards!  At this late stage of the season, I don't think Chris is hitting that 2,000-yard mark.
      • No indecision from me on the biggest spread of the week.  Arizona has a QB in John Skelton who can't do anything but throw the ball deep up for grabs, and WR Larry Fitzgerald, as he proved last week, will go get it.  So I love the Cardinals to cover two TDs at Philly, although Philadelphia badly needs this win.  They gotta get off the deck in this spot, right?  Jason thinks they'll rise all the way up and beat down the inferior opponent.
      • We'll both gladly take Seattle to cover almost a TD against Baltimore because Baltimore doesn't seem to know how to play hard when they don't fucking respect the opponent.  We'll pick them to keep playing down to their competition, although we both like the Ravens to win.
      • I didn't hesitate in picking Detroit to go into Chicago and get a big win because for some reason I think they still want to avenge getting robbed of a win in Chicago last year even though they already beat the Bears in Motown this year.  I know if I got a game-winning TD catch stolen from me like Calvin Johnson did, I'd relive it again upon walking back into the stadium, and it would motivate me to pull out my whang and Sandusky the Bears repeatedly until there are no other sounds echoing throughout Soldier Field except the sound of rhythmic slapping.  Jason is taking Chicago just because he has a hunch.  We know what that means.  Bet all you possess on Chicago immediately.
      • Jason loves the hook on the Niners-Giants spread, so he'll take New York to cover, but not to win.  I'm going all the way and taking the Giants FTW.  If the defense gets penetration and Eli Manning plays QB like he has so far this year, the Giants can hang with any team in the damn league.  And who do you want late in a close game, Alex Smith or Eli?  My Lesson Learned:  New York Giants, Week 8--"...quarterbacks win in this league by throwing, and Eli Manning's arm prevailed in the end..."; San Francisco, Week 8--"Niners QB Alex Smith at one point threw a play-action screen to an eligible offensive lineman for a first down, and if that wasn't crazy enough, he threw a play-action screen to a defensive lineman for another first down.  The Browns allowed Coach Insane to do that.  A real team will not."
      • On Sunday night, I struggled with taking New England to overcome the worst defense in the league (their own) or picking the Jets and handing Tom Brady his 3rd loss in a row.  I went with the Patriots because I still consider the Jets D overrated and I think Brady and the crew will be motivated to shred Gang Green and shake the losing streak.  Plus, the Jets can't get defensive penetration and rattle Brady quite like the Giants can.  Jason's not taking Mark Sanchez, he wants to make clear, but he's picking the Jets for the 2nd week in a row.  The Pats are playing bad, the Jets are playing well, and Jay's going with the team and the foot-loving coach that has had Brady and Bill Belichick's number lately.  My Lesson Learned:  New York Jets, Week 7--"The Bolts seemed to move the ball with ease when they had to early (against the Jets), and it wasn't Philip Rivers dominating with the pass."
      • And no stressing over the Monday night pick for me, either.  Yes, Minnesota stayed very close with Green Bay in QB Christian Ponder's first start, losing by only 6.  But that was in Minnesota with a huge effort from RB Adrian Peterson. Not that Peterson isn't capable of another huge effort, but it's less likely on the road, not to mention at Lambeau Field.  I like the Packers to Sandusky the Vikings by 20.  Jason will take Minnesota to keep it close because that's how Godawful the Pack's defense has been this year.

      Thursday, November 10, 2011

      Thu. Nite Raiders @ Chargers

      Alright, here I am, the new Dre, picking on gut and not overanalyzing things.  This one is easy.  Jason and I both like San Diego to squoosh Oakland.  My gut comes with a side of memories of Vincent Jackson and the Bolts whupping San Francisco on a Thursday night last year, as well as some nauseating thoughts of more Carson Palmer suckiness.  I will ignore my fear of more Philip Rivers INTs and take the better overall team, the San Diego Chargers.  The line is 7, and it ain't enough.

      My Pick:  San Diego 27-16

      Tuesday, November 8, 2011

      Week 9 ATS Recap: The Bear Whisperer

      The feeling Dre has right now is familar to me. After putting up a two win week earlier in the season, there isn't much that can be said. I spent my recap shitting on every teams chances that week instead of my usual recap, so to see Dre throw up his hands and head back to square one is not unfamiliar. More shocking to me is that I've erased a large early season deficit and at the halfway point of the regular season, more or less, am sitting 2 games over .500 and 10 games up on Dre. Did not see that coming.



      • Dolphins 31, Chiefs 3 - Both losers - A guy I know at work was planning on making a wager with the Chiefs being one of his winners. Earlier in the week, I warned him against making that pick. Then I made the same stupid pick. Since Miami made the move to Matt Moore, they've been, at the least, competetive. Tim Tebow erased a 15 point Miami lead with a little luck, then the Giants escaped a loss with a late comeback as well. Against KC, the Fins put it all together, finally, leaving the Colts as the only winless team in the league. I should listen to myself more when I tell people not to bet on certain games.

      • Saints 27, Buccaneers 16 - Both losers - The Bucs had the nine point spread covered with a 4th quarter surge, but allowed the Saints to walk down the field and kick the spread crushing FG late. Both teams piled up the yards, but it was the Saints ground game that made all the difference. When we dissected this pick, the Saints running attack was ranked pretty high after all the meaningless yards they racked up in the 62-7 debacle against the Colts, but here they ran effectively. If the Saints can produce on the ground like this against teams that don't blow on defense, they may be able to make a January run.

      • Falcons 31, Colts 7 - Both winners - This one went as predicted: easily. The Falcons didn't need their best effort against the inept Colts. They did, however, finally find a way to work Julio Jones into the offense. Jones made a spectacular diving catch in between several indifferent Colt defenders and then showed off his easy speed on a 80 yard slant and go. At one point in the game, Jones had 2 catches for 130 yards and 2 TD's. If he keeps that up, some of those draft picks the Falcons blew to get him might look worth it.

      • Texans 30, Browns 12 - Both winners - It looks like the Texans are finally exerting some of the muscle we thought they might with the Colts out of the AFC South picture. After stumbling out to a 3-3 start, the Houstons have handled three inferior opponents, as they should. The South looks like the Texans to lose, and only games against Atlanta and Cincinnati (?!?!?) look like potential roadblocks to a 10 win season.

      • Jets 27, Bills 11 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Once the Jets got up 13-0 midway through the 2nd quarter, this game felt over. The Bills just never clicked on offense, and the Jets made fewer mistakes, though they still managed to turn the ball over twice. Mark Sanchez was in his usual checkdown mode, and on this occasion, with a lead and the defense playing solid, it was enough.

      • Niners 19, Redskins 11 - Jason winner, Dre loser - What are the odds two teams score 11 points in the same week? Weird. Dre went the upset route here, picking the Skins to beat Jim "Coach Insane" Harbaugh. Harbaugh might be nuts, but he has this Niner team believing, and they have had the benefit of a really easy schedule. Confidence is a funny thing, and San Fran could be on the march to (gasp!) a first round bye.

      • Cowboys 23, Seahawks 13 - Jason winner, Dre loser - I imagine this pick, more than any of the week, infuriating Dre the most. This is the "pull it outta my ass" special, and I'm good for a few of these a season. Picks like this are when I don't mind Dre calling me lucky, cuz it means I won the pick!

      • Bengals 24, Titans 17 - Both losers - Guess we gotta stop making fun of Cincinnati. For one week anyways.

      • Broncos 38, Raiders 24 - Dre winner, Jason loser - All the press will go to Tebow for "leading" the Broncos to a win, but it was more about the resurrection of Willis McGahee and a brilliant Eddie Royal punt return that turned the tide in this one. As for the Raiders, this isn't the same team without Darren McFadden and Jason Campbell. Carson Palmer wasn't completely inept in his second game with Oakland, but it just doesn't feel like they have the same magic they had earlier in the season. It's a shame because I thought Oakland could have easily won the AFC West they way that San Diego and KC had played. They still might, but it wont be easy.

      • Giants 24, Patriots 20 - Both winners - Sometimes, someones just got your number. The Giants are the Pats worst nightmare: a team that can rush the quarterback without blitzing. Both Pittsburgh and New York abused the Patriot offensive line, forcing Tom Brady into some mistakes. Eli Manning saved some late heroics for the Giants final drive, and history repeated itself, with Manning tossing the game winning TD with virtually no time left on the clock. All that was missing was David Tyree catching a ball with his head.

      • Cardinals 19, Rams 13 (OT) - Both losers - How did the Rams lose? Steven Jackson piled up yards. The Ram defense produced two safties. The Ram offense outgained the Cards by over 120 yards. Yet there was Patrick Peterson, in overtime, fielding a punt at his own 1-yard line and taking it to the house. Cards win. This is what happens when you let a team that you have dominated hang around, and a blueprint on how to go 1-7.

      • Packers 45, Chargers 38 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Dre had this one called right, and STILL lost the pick. This was going to be the Chargers coming out party. Philip Rivers riddled the Packer secondary. Vincent Jackson looked unstoppable, as did Antonio Gates, as well as Mike Tolbert. But on the way to looking upstoppable, Philip Rivers had two tiny hiccups. By hiccups I mean complete meltdowns, as errant Rivers passes turned into two Packer pick-6's that put the Packers up 21-7 by the end of the first quarter. The Bolts comeback attempts, and there were many of them as Aaron Rodgers just kept matching the Chargers scores with drives and scores of his own, fell short time after time. By the time the Packers picked off Rivers for the third time to end the game, 83 points had been scored, the Chargers lost by 7, with only the three Rivers picks to blame for their defeat. The Packers dodged a bullet in this game, and it looked like they knew it. Even in a losing effort, this could be the springboard the Chargers need to ascend to the top of the AFC West.

      • Ravens 23, Steelers 20 - Both losers - And we just had gotten done talking about how infuriating the Ravens are! This team is impossible to read. Lose to Jacksonville. Suck for three quarters against Arizona. So what are the chances a team that does those things goes into Heinz Field and beats the Steelers on a ballsy last minute TD drive? Zero, right? Fuck me, but the Ravens did it. Now watch them go to Seattle and lose this week. Just watch.

      • Bears 30, Eagles 24 - Jason winner, Dre loser - The Bear Whisperer strikes again! Don't ask me why, but the Bears just have a knack for pulling off improbable wins as road dogs in prime time. Sure, that set of variables may sound random and like total horseshit, but I've seen it too many times over the years to discount it. Weird shit is bound to happen. Like the Eagles abandoning LeSean McCoy. Or, let's say, the Eagles rookie punter doing his best Tim Tebow impersonation and one hopping a wide open receiver. When does that happen? When the Bears are big road dogs in prime time, that's when! Credit to the Bears, who stuck to the ground game, which allowed Jay Cutler to go an entire game without being sacked, allowing him to keep his focus downfield and shredding the Eagles secondary. The Eagles are now 3-5, and if they don't get their act together quick, will be spending their January at home....just as I predicted. Would that make me the Eagle Murmurer?

      Thursday night games already? Seems sooner this year, doesn't it? Why don't they just play on Thursdays all year? When asked for comment on why the Thursday games are starting so early this year, the Jacksonville Jaguars denied it had anything to do with money. Just thought I'd toss a little David Garrard humor in there, it's been a while.