2012 Week #4

We're giving you a lot of diversity with this week's picks, not only because we differ on eight of the fourteen remaining games, but also because Jason will give you his rationale for his selections while I will provide you with a meaningless stat to back up each of mine.  Off we go.

Fav	Spread	Dog			Dre	Jay
	Thu. Nite
BAL (2-1)	12	Cle (0-3)	Bal 23-16		Cle	Cle
	Sunday
NE (1-2)	3½	BUF (2-1)			NE	NE
HOU (3-0)	11½	Tenn (1-2)			Hou	Tenn
SD (2-1)	1	KC (1-2)			SD	SD
DET (1-2)	4	Min (2-1)			Min	Det
ATL (3-0)	7	Car (1-2)			Car	Car
Sea (2-1)	3	STL (1-2)			Sea	StL
SF (2-1)	4½	NYJ (2-1)			SF	NY
ARIZ (3-0)	5	Mia (1-2)			Ariz	Mia
DEN (1-2)	7	Oak (1-2)			Den	Oak
Cin (2-1)	1	JACK (1-2)			Cin	Cin
GB (1-2)	9	NO (0-3)			GB	GB
TB (1-2)	1	Wash (1-2)			TB	Wash
	Sun. Nite
PHI (2-1)	1	NYG (2-1)			Phi	Phi
	Mon. Nite
DAL (2-1)	3½	Chi (2-1)			Dal	Chi

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

•  New England has a rough history in Buffalo, especially last season when they blew a big lead, but we're both liking the Patriots here.  Neither of us is very impressed with the Bills, and the Pats and Coach Belichick should still be huffing and puffing and angry from their encounter with the replacement refs last Sunday night.  Useless Stat Alert!  Don't assume that Buffalo will enjoy a big advantage running the ball; NE is only allowing 3.3 yards per rush this year.
• Do not get me started railing against Detroit for losing that game in Nashville last week, and don't let me go on about how bad I still think Tennessee is.  And I'm a Jake Locker fan, but geez, he's not that good, Detroit's defense just made it seem that way.  Houston's defense?  Kinda good, so I'll take them and give big points.  Should be the Lock of the Week.  I don't see the Titans scoring a touchdown.  Jason's not in a giving mood, so he'll take those big points, even though the Texans look like the class of the league.  Useless Stat Alert!  Let's see Locker duplicate his aerial performance without WR Kenny Britt on the road and facing the 4th-ranked pass defense in the league, surrendering only 5.7 yards per throw.
• The San Diego-Kansas City pick is all about New Orleans.  Huh?  Well, we don't believe KC is any good, because their big win last week came over a bad New Orleans defense that has let every team it's played earn its only victory of the season.  Therefore, we love San Diego.  How's that for giving the Chargers respect?  We love them even though we're not paying them any attention.  We just think Kansas City stinks.  Useless Stat Alert!  Kansas City is already 0-1 at home, having been torched in the opener by Atlanta, and they're giving up 8.3 yards per pass attempt.
• Speaking of bad, do not get me started railing against Detroit...oh wait, I already railed against Detroit two picks ago.  Therefore, I will get cute and pick them to beat Minnesota but not cover 4.  Just feels like a FG victory to me.  The Lions don't seem cohesive enough to cover a big spread against anyone.  Jason calls it a Lions squoosh because the Vikings should be feeling great about themselves coming off of the big San Fran upset, and they should be ripe for the picking.  Useless Stat Alert!  Maybe Christian Ponder can take advantage of that putrid Detroit pass defense, as he leads a group averaging a stunning (for them) 7.4 yards per pass.
• We're both getting cute and taking Carolina to cover a big number in Atlanta against one of the hottest teams in the NFL.  Jason didn't see Atlanta the first two weeks, like John Cena with his hand in front of his face.  But he jumped on them last week while I had the Bolts, and it didn't work for me.  Now Jay's back doubting, and I'm joining him because I think Cam Newton got enough bad press for his bad play and bad attitude versus the Giants that it will motivate him to a big game against the Falcons' beat-up secondary.  If the Panthers don't slow Atlanta down on that Georgia Dome track, it might be a blowout, but we're sticking with Cam and the Cats.  Useless Stat Alert!  Newton's still hitting big plays, as the Panthers are averaging 9.8 yards per pass attempt, tied for most in the league with Cincinnati.
• How will the Seahawks respond to the gift from Monday night?  Badly, says Jason.  He likes St. Louis to get 'er done because they're comfortably mediocre, just like all of Jeff Fisher's teams, and that should be enough to knock off a lucky Seattle squad.  I say, Seattle is a notch above mediocre, especially on defense, and they should be hungry to prove that the Monday gift was not a fluke.  Useless Stat Alert!  It's another bad offensive line for Seattle to snack on; the Rams have surrendered 12 sacks already through 3 games, and the Seahawks have made 10 after picking up 8 versus Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
• Jason's going to set aside his Jet hatred in order to pick Gang Green over San Francisco because that's how much he hates a West Coast team traveling to the East Coast for an early game.  Sound reasoning.  I'm going with the Niners despite the humbling loss they suffered in Week 3.  That game in Minneapolis showed me that Alex Smith and company are shit if they fall behind because they don't have a come-from-behind type of offense, and I have no faith in Total Fraud building an early lead.  Useless Stat Alert!  It's a nice offense for San Fran's D to bounce back on; New Yawk ranks only 23rd in net yardage.
• Can I win a late game this week?!  I fucked them all up last week.  Let's start in Glendale, where the Cardinals may be the talk of the league if not for the substitute teachers in zebra stripes.  They're 3-0, if you haven't heard.  I will put an end to their good fortunes right now by jumping on the bandwagon and crushing it like only I can.  I'll give that 5 and take the Redbirds over the Fish.  Arizona's been doing it with suffocating defense so far this season, and Miami is not the right team to come in and break that up.  Reggie Bush is their best player by a mile, and he's really banged up.  Jason likes Miami anyway.  He hates this game because he doesn't have a great feeling either way, but he's going to go against the overhyped team in this matchup and take the points.  I LOVE THE UNDER.  Useless Stat Alert!  If Bush is ineffective or doesn't start, it would be up to Ryan Tannehill and the 25th-ranked Dolphin pass offense to perform against Arizona's 7th-ranked pass defense, giving up only 5.9 yards per throw.  Will Miami even score?
• I jump back on the Peyton Manning bandwagon, even though it looked old and rickety last week against Houston.  But that's how much I don't believe in Oakland.  The big comeback win over the Steelers was nice, but I think Denver's defense will provide a little more resistance for Darren McFadden and the Raiders.  It's too many points and too many bad-looking Manning throws for Jason, who sides with the Silver and Black covering in the altitude in a division battle.  Useless Stat Alert!  For all of Manning's miscues and 1-2 record, his passing offense is still 14th in the league, averaging 7.2 yards per pass attempt, and they get to fire at Oakland's 26th-ranked pass defense.
• The Bengal Bumslayer Rule says that we have to pick Cincinnati because they're playing a bad team in Jacksonville.  Simple rule:  If Cincy's playing a good team, go against them.  If they're playing a bad team, go with them.  Easy money.  A resurgent Maurice Jones-Drew should not be enough for the Jags once Andy Dalton and A.J. Green get cranked up for the Bengals.  Useless Stat Alert!  It's the only one you need.  Bengals 9-0 last year against losing teams, 0-7 against winning teams.
• New Orleans is so bad that they're a 9-point dog to a team that just had a crushing controversial loss on Monday night and have to head home to play on a short week.  And Jason is going to sweat this one out with me, because he had the Saints to cover at first, then changed his pick.  Tsk tsk.  How many times has one of us changed a pick only to see our original choice reign victorious?  But I talked him into it because New Orleans is so historically bad on defense and Green Bay should be mad and fired up when they take the field.  In the Goodell Bowl of teams royally fucked by the commissioner, we'll go with the team with the much better defense.  And Jason thinks, maybe the officials give the Pack a call or two as sort of a mea culpa to make up in a small part for the Monday night debacle.  Useless Stat Alert!  The first three defenses Green Bay had to play this season currently rank 11th (San Francisco), 6th (Chicago), and 4th (Seattle).  New Orleans?  30th.  Rodgers' first contest against a bad D.  Oh, shit.
• Speaking of bad defenses, please welcome Mike Shanahan and his Washington Redskins to Tampa, where Josh Freeman will be waiting to take advantage of a secondary that's been victimized by everyone who's come across it.  You won't see me picking TB very often due to a favorable matchup for Freeman and the Tampa Bay aerial attack, which leaves a lot to be desired for me.  But I can't pass this opportunity to keep pounding the Skins, who were everyone's darling team after Week 1.  Jason will go with the Skins and Robert Griffin III to step up against a Buccaneers team that may be young and hungry but isn't very good yet.  Useless Stat Alert!  It's the two worst pass defenses in the league going head-to-head, with Washington #31 and Tampa Bay #32.  But with no Pierre Garcon to take advantage for the Redskins, that leaves an edge for Freeman and his healthy Bucs.
• Very intriguing prime time battles, starting on Sunday with one more (last?) chance for Michael Vick to perform to expectations and lead the Eagles not just to victory, but to a decent performance that's not marred by a multitude of turnovers.  Unless they're apple.  Everyone loves apple turnovers.  (Womp womp.)  We're no fans of the G-Men in big games, so against our better judgment, we'll ride with Vick one more time against a defense that has to pressure him or else get torched in their injured and bad secondary.  We just don't think the New York Giants are that good, and we think they will struggle against a Philadelphia defense that has shown flashes of great play against the Browns and Ravens.  Useless Stat Alert!  The Giants are sporting a gaudy 9.3 yards per pass attempt given up on defense.  Seriously, Vick needs to grab Jeremy Maclin, DeSean Jackson, and Brent Celek by the facemasks and let them know that there are big plays to be had downfield.
• It's a big one personally for me on Monday night, as my hometown Bears face the Cowboys, who seem to be the favorite team in this area here in Memphis, Tennessee.  If Dallas wins, I will not hear the end of it from my co-workers.  But I have to take Dallas because Jay Cutler and the Bears have given me no reason to trust them with this new offense in prime time in a hostile environment against a rude and physical pass rush.  I don't want to sound like a typical sports talk radio caller, whining about Cutler not being able to see at night due to his diabetes or some other stupid bullshit reason, but I haven't seen him play a good game at night in forever.  I can't pick Chicago until they show an ability to get the job done in a big spot in spite of their terrible offensive line and probably terrible playcalling by Mike Tice.  Jason's loving that hook and going with Dallas to win by a FG.  Whatever the reason, if Jason the Bear Whisperer likes Chicago and the points, that makes me very scared.  Useless Stat Alert!  The worst o-line loses, and it looks like that would be Chicago.  Cutler's been sacked 11 times and been forced into 6 interceptions, while Tony Romo has been sacked 7 times and thrown 3 picks.

Thu. Nite Browns @ Ravens

It's a welcome back for the referees, as the scabs are history as of this very game.  And it's a welcome back for me, as I will go stats heavy this week and go back to what I know best, letting the numbers tell me what pick I should make.  My pick happens to line up with Jason's on this one.  We both like Cleveland +12 in Baltimore.  Jason cites the Ravens coming off a big emotional important win on Sunday night, and oh, how we've seen so many letdowns in those circumstances.  I'll back my pick up with some stats:  Baltimore's legendary defense through three games actually ranks lower than Cleveland in sacks (9 to 8) and interceptions (5 to 3).  If the Browns could trot Joe Haden out at CB, I might even have been tempted to call for the shocking upset.  I'll just call for the backdoor cover.

My Pick:  Baltimore 24-16

2012 Week 3: What I Learned

• I need real NFL referees back.  Now.
• The Giants-Panthers game was a tale of two offensive lines.  Carolina got pushed around by New York's defense, and Cam Newton was under siege all night.  The G-Men kept Eli Manning clean, and he marched his offense up and down the field.  That happens.  What I didn't get is how did the Giants discover the magic elixir that allowed them to get into that physical back-and-forth contest with Tampa Bay, you know, the one where Eli threw for over 500 yards, then travel to Charlotte only three days later and not just hang with the young and hungry Carolina Panthers but blow them off their own field.  I haven't been so sure of a pick in a while, and the pick was dead fucking wrong.  But that's what the Giants do--they underperform when they should, and they excel when they're not expected to do well.
• Speaking of Tampa, their defense impressed again versus Dallas, only giving up quick slants to a potent offense and keeping the Bucs in the game.  They may have had a shot to win, but Josh Freeman couldn't get rid of the ball, and the Cowboys were able to snuff out TB rallies with their pass rush.  And another kneel-down scrum at the end, as Tampa coach Greg Schiano can't seem to forget that he's not coaching in college anymore and keeps instructing his defense to blow up the center and QB as they attempt to kneel and run out the clock.  I'm not going to make a big deal out of it.  I'll just say that it's all about winning and losing.  If Schiano can put together a good enough squad and start winning, no one will care that his team shows false hustle during the kneel-down.  If they don't win, that tactic will be cited as evidence that he's a small-minded college coach, and he'll get shitcanned.  All about the results.
• I have crushed another bandwagon!  Just as everyone crowned the 49ers as the bast in the world, I decide that I can't stay away from picking them at a lacking Minnesota outfit, and of course they get beat.  The Vikings made a desperate go-for-it decision on 4th and goal on their 1st possession, and if they get stuffed, that may have been the game.  But they score, and grab that early momentum, and the result is a game where Alex Smith has to play catch-up and use his arm to rally San Francisco to victory.  You see how that worked out.  Christian Ponder played a career game against a tough defense, and he gets the credit.  That sprint past the blitz for the rushing TD that made it 14-0 was a special play.  For all of the Alex Smith love, I'd probably rather have Ponder right now.
• Detroit fucked up that win at Tennessee long before the overtime gaffe that defined a directionless, undisciplined franchise under coach Jim Schwartz.  The Lions fell asleep at the wheel for two special teams TDs for the Titans, and they couldn't hold a lead because the D kept giving up the booty to Jake Locker in his career game.  They manage to steal two late TDs in about 2.1 seconds to miraculously force OT, then down 3, they line up on 4th and a yard, well within FG range, in order to draw Tennessee offside with a hard count and earn a cheap 1st down.  But see, that requires the team you're playing to have less discipline than you.  And since that's impossible, the Lions wind up somehow "accidentally" snapping the ball and getting stuffed on a QB sneak, ending the game.  Maybe QB Shaun Hill, playing for a hurt China Doll, saw glory and a quick yard and called for the sneak, unbeknownst to the rest of his line.  If that's true, again, it's the mark of an undisciplined team.  Bottom line:  Detroit should not have lost that game.
• Cincinnati tried to give up the booty to RGIII and tried to blow a big lead, but Washington couldn't take advantage because the Shanahan Boyz couldn't stop calling option plays and other crazy shit in the playbook that kept getting Robert Griffin blasted and potentially broken.  Seriously, I got Week 5 in the "RGIII Gets Sent to IR" pool.  This one went how I thought it would, as the lack of a Redskin pass rush exposed their secondary, and Andy Dalton toasted them like Pop Tarts.  The Bengal defense wilted in the 2nd half, in part thanks to chasing Griffin around, but there's got to be a better way to take advantage of his athleticism than options and letting him get busted in the fucking mouth for 60 minutes.  If the Shanahan Boyz were the geniuses that they purport to be, they'd discover another way.
• And now, the funeral and burial of the New Orleans Saints.  We'll be featuring Louis Armstrong-style trumpet and street marching bands as we wind our way through the French Quarter on our way to the cemetery...Yes, Jason declared the Saints dead if they allowed the Chiefs to compete, and the Chiefs didn't just compete, they rallied back from a deficit as if they had every right to.  Jamaal Charles sliced through the Saints defense like Usain Bolt at a high school track meet, and poof, a 24-6 New Orleans lead was gone.  I'm still not sold on Matt Cassel; I don't think the comeback would have occurred without Charles getting busy.  But I am sold on New Orleans being lost in the wilderness, and like Peyton Manning earning MVP last year in Jason's eyes due to how horrible the Colts were in his absence, I may have to start a Sean Payton for Coach of the Year campaign.
• The New York Jets D took advantage of young Miami Dolphins players to fight back into their game down in Florida.  Fumbles, dropped passes, wrong routes--you name it, Miami provided it.  So that left the Jets a chance to grab a win if they could rally on offense.  Uh oh, that means Mark Sanchez at the helm...and a funny thing happened.  Total Fraud's repertoire of quick slants and little cute misdirections, the same shit he always does that gets smashed by real teams, well, it all worked, and the Jets got within a FG of a last-second win.  The FG was blocked, and the Fins celebrated...and it meant nothing because coach Joe Philbin "iced" the kicker with a timeout right before the block.  Of course, Gang Green nailed the FG after the TO.  And yet another coach genius move of icing the kicker goes against his own team.  When will these guys start trusting their special teams to make a play instead of trying to outsmart everyone?
• Andrew Luck: 313 yards, 2 TDs.  Blaine Gabbert:  155 yards, 1 TD.  That means the Colts crushed the Jags, right?  No, because in a rarity for me this week, I visualized a big performance and it actually happened.  Maurice Jones-Drew lit up Indianapolis on the ground for 177 yards, providing basically the only offense for Jacksonville, and Gabbert was able to throw a "short" pass to Cecil Shorts, who took it 80 yards for the game winner.  I missed the days where a running back starting against Indy was guaranteed to put up massive yardage, but it looks like those days may be back.  I guess LB Pat Angerer, who's been hurt for every game so far this season, makes that much of a difference for the Colts.
• I gotta keep these late-afternoon recaps short because every single game charted high on my WTF?! reaction list.  First, Michael Vick continued to play like shit as the Cardinals moved to 3-0 by routing the Eagles in Arizona.  Vick's decision-making blows right now.  He's taking too long to throw the ball, and he's running right into defenders instead of around them like he used to.  He's gotta get better, like, right now, or else Andy Reid will be left with no choice but to bench his ass.  Kevin Kolb looked all-world.  If the Eagles didn't sack him, he made every play.  That had to be a one-game great performance.  Don't bet on a repeat.
• It was all about the Atlanta D in San Diego, as Philip Rivers and the Chargers couldn't get anything going in losing to the Falcons while scoring only 3 points.  Matt Ryan looks very comfortable, the Falcons offense is humming along, and if the defense keeps this up, they will be at the top of the NFC at the end of the year.
• Denver stayed within shouting distance of the Texans, even as Houston and Matt Schaub lit up CB Tracy Porter early and often.  They must have seen something on tape in preparation, because they targeted Porter and used him like a tampon.  It was one of those long bomb attempts on Porter that cost Schaub a part of his ear, as he exposed himself to a big hit from blitzing LB Joe Mays.  Bottom line is, Peyton Manning couldn't complete the comeback because he can't gun the ball like he needs to in order to make big plays downfield.
• And in Oakland, the vaunted Pittsburgh D let them down big-time.  Ben Roethlisberger made all the throws in putting up 31 points on the Raiders, and from there, it's up to the defense to pick on Interception Santa and put the game away.  But they let Darren McFadden run wild and put the Silver & Black back in the game.  The Antonio Brown fumble didn't help; the talented Steelers WR had a big catch and fumble that gave Oakland the rock in great field position, and they took advantage.  The big boot by Sebastian Janikowski gave them the win in the end, but Pittsburgh allowed Oakland to get to that point by playing terrible defense.  Is age finally getting to the Steel Curtain?
• Then the scab refs took the spotlight in both prime-time matchups.  First, in Baltimore, the meltdown came because the game-winning FG for the Ravens appeared very close to missing, but the refs called it good, and New England coach Bill Belichick tried to actually grab a ref as he ran off the field because he wanted an explanation so bad.  That's gonna cost him cash, I'm sure.  But that's how little respect coaches and players have for these guys.  The game breakdown went like this for me:  New England kept Tom Brady clean, and he played a fucking great game picking apart the Baltimore defense.  Then their pass protection broke down late, Brady started getting sacked on 3rd downs, and that's why Joe Flacco had a chance to lead a comeback.  Otherwise, he would have had no shot.  So the better team lost, but I got a win thanks to the ½-point hook on the spread, so I'll gladly take it.
• In Seattle, the shit hit the fan with such ferocity that Jason's posted twice about the refs since, and the media feeding frenzy continues even as of this writing.  The refs botching the call on the game-winning TD is all the talk.  I'll join in briefly by saying that, yeah, I don't know how one could rule it a simultaneous catch by Packers DB M.D. Jennings and Seahawks WR Golden Tate.  Jennings on every single replay I've watched had more possession of the ball than anyone else, ruling out the "simultaneous" possibility, meaning that any other opinion of the catch would have to claim that Tate had the ball outright, which isn't truthful at all.  The zebras fucked up royally.  I'm not even mad at the clear push-off by Tate because that happens on every jump ball and never gets called.  Anyway, how did we get to that point?  Because Seattle pounced on Aaron Rodgers in the 1st half and stifled the Green Bay offense, but they weren't able to get it going when they had the ball save for the 1st TD pass to Tate from Russell Wilson.  So when Green Bay adjusted in the 2nd half and ground-and-pounded Seattle with RB Cedric Benson, they didn't have much of a hill to climb to take the leap and control of the contest.  It should have worked and given the Pack a big win in a hostile environment against a ferocious defense.  Alas, thanks to the high school referees, it didn't.  Oh, and I'm also convinced with no proof at all that they didn't overrule their call after seeing the replay because they wanted to be able to leave Seattle.  If they give Green Bay the win on appeal, they may not have made it out of the stadium with their lives.

Week 3 Records--Dre  6-10, .375; Jay 9-7, .563
YTD Records--Dre 26-20-2, .565; Jay 27-19-2, .587

Now It All Makes Sense

After a day of fallout from the MNF incident, I found this article interesting.

From SI.com http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/peter_king/09/25/replacement-referees-packers-seahawks/index.html

Buried in Part 3 of the article, we find out that the NFL Officiating Supervisor is none other than Hall of Infamy inductee Phil Luckett. Seriously. That's not a joke. THE Phil Luckett. The guy who gave us the NFL's Greatest Hits of Referee Fuck Ups, so much so that he was an inagural entrant into our tongue-in-cheek Hall of "Fame." Holy shitsnacks.

Week 3 Recap: Refpocalypse Now

Last week, I defended the replacement refs, guys who are clearly overmatched but doing a difficult task to the the best of their ability. Let's face it, these guys can't win. A game was bound to come down to a bad call, and last nights MNF Packer/Seahawks game was the one. On it's own, the call was bad. Really, really bad. Packer DB MD Jennings intercepted a hail mary pass from Russell Wilson as Golden Tate flailed/hugged/touched the ball and Jennings on their way down to the ground. At no point did Tate ever possess the ball, while Jennings maintained possession all the way through "the process." OK, horrible ending to a fairly horrible game. Taken as one bad call to end a game, I think we could all stomach it. Added to the confusion, mistakes, blatant disregard of NFL rules, and heightened by the players, coaches, and fans disbelief, the NFL has taken the most popular game in the land and made it a mockery of itself.

Instead of talking about the Vikings stunning throttling of the 49ers, the Falcons dominance on the west coast, or the Cardinals (?!?!) 3-0 start, we're talking still about the refs. Bill Belichick touched a ref! Jim Harbaugh was mean to a ref! The refs gave the Titans something like 25 free yards in overtime! And now, the nadir, the refs cost a team a game. On Monday Night, in front of millions to see. Not only did the refs cost a team a 2-1 start, they cost people betting real money on these games hundreds of millions of dollars, they cost fantasy teams, and most egregiously of all, they cost me and Dre a win! Bastards.

Speaking of bastards, I lost a lot of respect for the NFL Network. Yes I know that the network is in the employ of the league, but when you make the talking points coming out of ESPN look rational, you have a credibility problem. NFL Network trotted out talking heads on it's "NFL AM" show this morning that implied that the refs "may" have made the right call. These people know who signs their checks, while over at ESPN, the outrage and sadness was palpable. Steve Young was near tears. Trent Dilfer was speechless. Jon Gruden made sense. It was like bizarro world.

My other loss of respect goes to Mike McCarthy, the Packer head coach. If you get jobbed by the officials to the degree that his team did, you don't leave it to TJ Fucking Lang to be the one to stand up. If I was McCarthy, I would have stood at the postgame press conference making out checks to the league while I tore everyone within earshot a new asshole. McCarthy also had no business in sending out anything other than a goon squad for the final extra point. Somewhere, Greg Schiano was wishing that was his team that got hosed so he could blow up that extra point. McCarthy, in his acceptance of it all, lost a lot of respect. Case in point: Jim Leyland after Jim Joyce blew a perfect game for Armando Galarraga. A game Leylands team WON, by the way. Aaron Rodgers called the call "awful" and left it at that. Greg Jennings wanted Golden Tate to take a lie detector test. Sadly, however, nobody stood up to the beast that is the league. Such is why this wont change. The locked out regular officials have no reason to give in to the demands of the league at this point. With every week that passes, people lament guys who've made calls just as bad over the years. Bizarro indeed.

Jason 9-7
Dre 6-10

2012 Week #3

Oooh wee, was I LOUD WRONG on Thursday night. Got me scared that this is the week that my win percentage comes crashing down like a falling star. Only one way to find out.

Fav	Spread	Dog			Dre	Jay
	Thu. Nite
CAR (1-1)	2½	NYG (1-1)	NY 36-7		Car	NY
	Sunday
DAL (1-1)	9	TB (1-1)			Dal	TB
CHI (1-1)	7	StL (1-1)			Chi	Chi
SF (2-0)	6½	MIN (1-1)			SF	Min
Det (1-1)	3½	TENN (0-2)			Det	Tenn
WASH(1-1)	3	Cin (1-1)			Cin	Wash
NO (0-2)	9	KC (0-2)			NO	NO
NYJ (1-1)	1	MIA (1-1)			NY	NY
Buf (1-1)	3	CLE (0-2)			Buf	Buf
IND (1-1)	3	Jack (0-2)			Jack	Ind
Phi (2-0)	3	ARIZ (2-0)			Phi	Phi
SD (2-0)	3	Atl (2-0)			SD	Atl
Hou (2-0)	1	DEN (1-1)			Den	Hou
Pit (1-1)	3½	OAK (0-2)			Pit	Pit
	Sun. Nite
BAL (1-1)	1½	NE (1-1)			NE	Bal
	Mon. Nite
GB (1-1)	3	SEA (1-1)			GB	GB

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• Jason comes out with the underdog Bucs at Big D to cover the number in the Cowboys' home opener.  I ain't buying it.  I know Jay's the president of the Josh Freeman Fan Club, but Dallas should get the double-digit win here.  If they don't, they're not going to be nearly as formidable as certain people were shouting they were after Week 1.  If Dallas pass protects for Tony Romo, it's a squoosh.
• I haven't felt this squeamish about a Lock of the Week in a long time, but here it is:  I got Chicago to rebound from the Green Bay debacle and rout the Rams in Soldier Field.  Jason concurs.  It's the Rams' first game off the turf this season, the Bears are pissed, and St. Louis RB and workhorse Steven Jackson may not even answer the call to take the field.  The D-line must dominate for Chicago here.  No excuses.
• It's really hard to go against San Francisco right now the way they're playing.  Jason's doing just that, and it's another one of his hunches, so he's a lock to win this pick.  He just feels that the Vikings can cover the number at home.  I guess they could if Adrian Peterson can get it in gear, but I'm afraid that Minnesota may have no passing game at all against the frenzied 49ers secondary.  Hard to cover if you can't throw for any scores.
• I may have to sign over my card as president of the Jake Locker Fan Club to Jason if he takes this game down.  He's got Tennessee to beat Detroit straight up.  Jay's right when he spots the Lions as a defense ripe for the picking, but I can't pick the Titans as the team to exploit them until they show a damn running game to balance things out.  How much can one realistically predict Chris Johnson to rush for in this game?  30, 40, 50 yards?  He's been beyond terrible so far this year.  I'll side with Matt Stafford to get right against the lackluster Titans pass rush, rebounding from facing the suffocating SF defense, and Detroit to keep Tennessee buried.
• Jason's making it simple for the Bengals--if they're facing a good team, he's against them, if they face a bum, he's for them.  He had to struggle with this one, though, because just what the fuck is Washington?  They looked like world beaters vs. the Saints, not so much vs. the Rams.  Jay's verdict:  Washington's slightly above average, therefore not a bum, and Cincy can't beat a team that's not a bum.  My verdict:  The Redskins lost the only semblance of a pass rush to injury in Brian Orakpo, and the Bengals can beat them with no pressure up front to harass Andy Dalton.  Plus, Cincinnati was 5-3 on the road last year, and Washington 2-6 at home, for what that's worth.
• One of Jason's playoff teams is going 0-3 to start the year.  We both think it has to be Kansas City, because if it's New Orleans, oh shit, is it gonna get crazy on the Bayou.  Jason goes so far as to say, if the Saints even let the Chiefs compete, they're done for the year.  Ow.  I hope New Orleans can take advantage of the first linear QB they're going to face this season.  Matt Cassel won't be flying around making plays with his feet, so the Saints D should adjust to the easier assignment and make some fucking plays, already.
• Which task is repeatable, Jason wonders:  Miami getting their doors blown off against Houston in Week 1, or Reggie Bush blowing away a team on the ground against Oakland in Week 2?  He thinks it's the former, so he'll hold his nose and pick the Jets for a road division win.  I'm with him.  As overrated as Gang Green is, I don't think they can lose to a team that can't throw.  But Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez are capable of coming up short in any situation, so be careful.
• We'll go with Buffalo to bounce back and make it two wins in a row because we still don't believe that Cleveland is a real NFL franchise.  But I'm willing to consider the Browns as new and improved if they show up in this one.  The Bills have the type of defense that can be exploited by the Browns, so if Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson have game and last week wasn't a fluke, they should have a good showing here.  But we trust C.J. Spiller over Weeden and Richardson, so we got Buffalo to make it to 2-1.
• This game is one of my hunches, but it's based in statistics.  I like Jacksonville to prevail at Indy because I have flashbacks of Maurice Jones-Drew walking up and down Lucas Oil Stadium, racking up rush yards everywhere in the building like Super Mario finding coins in every nook and cranny of the castle.  No reason to think he's going to pull out one of those big-time games, but I just got a feeling that he's ready to do so in this, his 3rd game of the season after holding out all of training camp.  160 yards and a couple of TDs sounds about right to me.  Jason is taking the Colts for the same reason he usually goes against the Jaguars:  Blaine Gabbert is still breathing.
• On to an interesting Sunday late slate, starting with the Eagles flying to Arizona in a battle of 2-0 squads.  We both think Andy Reid and the Philly defense will have something for ex-Eagle Kevin Kolb, starting QB for the Cardinals only because the great John Skelton can't go.  The trade looks awesome so far, but it would turn to shit if Philly lets Kolb beat them.  The Eagles were supposed to have an improved defense this season, so they have to stomp their former teammate in this matchup if they are legit.  And Michael Vick can't turn the ball over 4 times every fucking week, can he??
• I was waffling on the Falcons-Chargers tilt until Jason cited a stat, meaning his pick was doomed, meaning I had to take the other side.  Jay's stat is that Atlanta has won their last eight West Coast visits, and he's going with the Dirty Birds.  It's tough picking against them right now, but it's still early in the season, so the Chargers aren't ready to throw up on their shirts just yet.  That comes later.  Basically, the QB that doesn't show up loses this one, and Philip Rivers at home barely gets the nod over Matty Ice for me.
• Even harder to go against Houston, but I believe Peyton Manning had to learn something in that performance Monday night at Atlanta.  Those throws that floated and fluttered in the air to various Falcon defensive backs had to teach him that certain throws that used to get there don't get there, at least not yet, and he'll adjust and make other open reads and throws going forward, starting with the Texans, a team he used to rip on the regular back in the day as a Colt.  Maybe there's some muscle memory there.  Jason just cites Houston as "the most talented team in the league."  No more needs to be said.
• The hook makes me nervous, but I'll take Pittsburgh anyway to go into Oakland and beat a team and coach that seem to be directionless, or as Jason says, "They don't know what they're doing."  Not much needs to be said there, either.
• Game of the Week Sunday evening, as the AFC title game rematch goes down in Baltimore, and as much as I'm loving Joe Flacco, you'd think I'd be in lockstep with Jason in taking our predicted Super Bowl champ to avenge the last meeting.  No Lee Evans to drop the game winner this time, Jay says.  I say, not so fast because the Ravens don't have their best pass rusher, Terrell Suggs, and Arizona showed last week how to beat the Patriots, and that's fuck with Tom Brady.  I think Suggs is that important that his absence makes the difference in this regular season battle.  I still got Baltimore in the playoffs because losses and experiences like this will help the Ravens grow, and because Suggs will be back by then.
• On Monday night, it's Green Bay's turn to go into "The Meat Grinder," Jason's Morning Zoo-like nickname for Seattle's home arena.  But we like the Packers to survive the grinder because GB D-coordinator Dom Capers could eat rookie QB Russell Wilson for supper with various blitzes and schemes after ten days of prep.  Seattle can use that great home atmosphere for three division meetings with substandard offenses, but in Aaron Rodgers and the Pack's weapons, the Seahawks ain't seen nothing like this.  If they can compete, it will be a hell of a feat.

Thu. Nite Giants @ Panthers

I was interested in checking the point spread of this contest yesterday when the news of all the Giants injuries came out.  I wondered if I could sneak in a pick for Carolina with a favorable spread before the number moved in order to get an advantage in the Covers.com contest.  (Did I mention that I'm ranked 10th after two weeks out of 10,150 contestants???)  And indeed, I got Carolina -1 at about 5P Central.  This morning, Jason informed me that he's getting as cute as it can get, because he sees the spread now is Carolina -2½ and he's taking the Panthers by a 19-17 score, which means he's got New York to cover.  As much as I want to give him the -1 line from yesterday and save him the embarrassment of getting blowed out this evening, he cited the most current line, so we're going with that.  And if you don't know the Giants injuries, among them are WR Hakeem Nicks, who caught 199 yards of balls Sunday; backup WR Domenik Hixon; and starting tailback Ahmad Bradshaw.  All are out for tonight's game.  Coming off of last Thursday's bad pick, I'm instituting a new but not totally new rule for myself of not taking any road teams on a short week unless I have a damn good reason.  And the G-Men missing so many key parts against Cam Newton and the potent Carolina attack would rank as the opposite of a damn good reason.

My Pick:  Carolina 34-27

Week 2 ATS Recap: The Replacements

Sure, I guess you'd expect a post of this title to be a rant against the current "replacement" referees employed by the NFL. Oh, but you'd be so wrong. Yeah, the games are taking longer, they're slowing to a snails pace at times, and the refs lose control of the players once in a while.

So what's different? Having watched two weeks of games so far, I actually kinda like these "replacements." It's been two whole weeks, and not once have I heard the phrase "point of emphasis." That term usually is tied to some rule that the NFL wants the previous refs to watch closely, and for the first month of the season we are treated to flags flying every time it's even in question if the "point of emphasis" occured. This season? Nope.

The fans, driven by the media, are quickly turning on these new refs. To hear Mike Tirico last night during the Broncos-Falcons game, they should be. We had apparently reached the low point of the season in bad officiating, even though the majority of the calls were correct OR corrected, and other than the pace of the game, the refs did not factor in the outcome. Funny thing, that "pace" of the game. It's ironic that the announcers, employed by networks that treat us to a plethora of commercials during every timeout, during injuries, during reviews, after kickoffs and punts, that these same announcers would talk about the refs affecting the pace of the game. That's beyond silly. So I'm going to take it easy on the new guys, it's not like what they replaced was much better.

• Packers (-5½) 23, Bears 10 - Both losers - The Packers played the Niners, arguably the best team in the NFC, and lost in Week 1. The Bears blew out the Colts. So, of course, we went all Denny Green on the Bears and "crowned their ass." The Pack had other ideas, and it wasn't Aaron Rodgers leading the way, it was the Packer defense. Maybe they heard all their negative press, but guys who made big plays during the 2010 Super Bowl run and came up small in 2011, suddenly were making plays again. Clay Matthews, Charles Woodson, and "X-Factor" himself, Tramon Williams, all shut down the Bears.
• Giants (-7) 41, Bucs 34 - PUSH - The Giants were staring 0-2 in the face and Tampa was looking to be a surprising 2-0, but the sleeping Giants awoke and Eli Manning decided to do what he does best: play flawless 4th quarter quarterback. The G-Men went nuts in the 4th and shellshocked Tampa could do nothing but watch. I did enjoy watching the Bucs blow up the kneel down at the end of the game. I was unaware that there was some unwritten rule that you can't do that. Unwritten rules? What is this, baseball? If they had blown up Eli and he fumbled and Tampa did something with it, we'd be seeing a whole new trend in the league.
• Panthers (+2½) 35, Saints 27 - Both winners - The Saints are scoring 30 a game, so don't tell me that Drew Brees is lost without Payton. The story here is that the Saint D is giving up almost 40 a game so far, to Washington and Carolina, which aren't exactly offensive juggernauts. Carolina saw what a college QB could do to the Saints after RG3 put on a clinic in week 1, and guess who was RG3 before RG3 came into the league? Cam Newton, that's who, and he put on a show of his own. Fortunately for the Saints, their next opponent has Matt Cassell under center. If he lights up the Saints, this could get real ugly.
• Cardinals (+13½) 20, Patriots 18 - Dre winner, Jason loser - This was so typical, even once the Cards got up 20-9, you just knew the Pats would come back and win. Arizona even graciously fumbled while trying to run out the clock, gifting the game to Brady and Belichick. Even as Stephen Gostkowski's kick sailed way off target, I just knew the Pats would win, even after they'd lost. Maybe Roger Goodell will overturn the outcome, just so things can go back to normal. Arizona can't WIN at New England. Just....just no.
• Colts (+3) 23, Vikings 20 - Jason winner, Dre loser - OK, I know the Colts were horrible last year, but how could the Vikings be three point road favorites in this game? Maybe the stats were against me on this pick, but you don't make a bad team a home dog against an equally bad team, do you? Andrew Luck played a nice game and the Vikes comeback was too little, too late.
• Eagles (+1) 24, Ravens 23 - Both losers - Dre has a saying for this: "fuck you, faggot Ravens!"
• Bills (-3) 35, Chiefs 17 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Wow, I'm sure glad I picked up CJ Spiller in my fantasy league. In other news, the Chiefs reek. So glad I picked them and the Saints as division winners.
• Bengals (-7) 34, Browns 27 - PUSH - The Bengals had this game sewn up plenty of times but kept letting the Browns get back to down 7. This should have been an easy cover but wasn't. Put no faith in the offensive show put on the Browns, the Bengals suck.
• Texans (-7) 27, Jaguars 7 - Both winners - Take note New England, this is what good teams do to inferior opponents. It's only two weeks, but Houston is scary good. Not to be one-sided, Jacksonville is also scary bad.
• Dolphins (+1) 35, Raiders 13 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Another home dog to a so-so opponent....curious. Reggie Bush ran like a man who knew his quarterback was Ryan Tannehill. In fact, Bush ran for 28 yards less than Tannehill threw for. How 1989 of the Dolphins.
• Seahawks (+3) 27, Cowboys 7 - Both winners - The Cowboys went in to "The Meat Grinder" and never had a chance. There's something about being isolated in the Pacific Northwest that seems to give the Seahawks some advantage at home. Maybe it's something in the water, who knows? Whatever it is, it's working, and Pete Carroll isn't giving away the secret.
• Rams (+3½) 31, Redskins 28 - Both winners - Even though the Rams stink, we knew that their defense wouldn't roll over like the Saints D did for RG3. As an added bonus, Dres buddy Sam Bradford had a nice day too, so I'm sure he was happy.
• Steelers (-5) 27, Jets 10 - Dre winner, Jason loser - I've never been so happy to lose a pick. Let's leave it at that.
• Chargers (-6½) 38, Titans 10 - Both winners - We all just know the Chargers are going to find a way to screw this all up, right? Right? Tennessee, on the other hand, will have nothing to screw up. They're statistically worse than the Jaguars right now, and that's not good.
• Niners (-7) 27, Lions 19 - Both winners - After the heartbreak of the NFC Championship loss to the Giants, the Niners look like a team on a mission to make up for their mistakes. Now if they can just find a way not to let Kyle Williams return punts in the playoffs they'll be fine.
• Falcons (-3) 27, Broncos 21 - Dre winner, Jason loser - For all the Peyton Manning turnovers, the Broncos were a Falcon third down conversion away from getting the ball back with a chance to take the lead late. A depleted Falcon secondary hung on for dear life after scheming Peyton Manning into some deep throws he clearly can't make anymore. I've seen less ducks at Oregon football games, and a Falcon D missing Brent Grimes, Chris Owens, and at times Asante Samuel, somehow managed 4 first quarter turnovers and got off to a lead they wouldn't relinquish, even though the high octane Falcon offense was rather stifled by the Denver D.

2012 Week 2: What I Learned

• I learned that I'm #10 overall after two weeks on the Covers.com NFL contest.  So if you want my spread picks and over/unders, just follow "dredog" and rack up the cash.  Although, I will say that it hasn't been hard picking o/u for most of this year's games so far.  Just take mostly overs.  Duh.
• So many storylines emerged from the Bears-Packers game, but I can't ignore the most important one, which I've been saying all along:  If Clay Matthews plays like he's capable, Green Bay can beat anyone anytime.  That defense is so much better when they've got a Neanderthal roided-up troglodyte running around trying to murder the QB.  If Jay Cutler could have yelled and shoved Matthews, he would have, but instead he went after the softest player on the field, which was his own LT JaMarcus Webb.  I should fly my fat ass to Chicago and audition for the gig.  I can't be a worse blocker than Webb.  And I thought Cutler had much more control of the offense under the new coordinator Mike Tice.  If I knew Meathead Mike was going to call most of the plays, I never would have picked the Bears as my Super Bowl team.
• Sometimes, a game seems like two different games in one because a team plays one way early and adjusts and plays better late.  In Jersey, the Giants and Eli Manning came out sleepwalking, and a fast, alert and young Tampa D made them pay.  I don't want to sound like I'm declaring the Bucs defense as back on track, but man, they looked swift and dangerous for a half.  Keep an eye on them.  If they make strides throughout the season, Tampa can become competent.  What a turnaround in the 2nd half for Eli and his gutsy WRs, Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz.  Nicks fought injuries and Cruz his emotions (his grandma died earlier in the week) to make plays and complete the comeback.  Jason certainly was cussing the G-Men out as they not only stole the game, but forced a push on the spread.
• Carolina is just scratching the surface of what they can do on offense.  They're still running many college-like formations, with Cam Newton holding the option of pitch, keep, or fling downfield, and it's not like New Orleans has a great defense against standard offenses, but they really looked lost against the Panthers.  The Saints ran out to the early lead, too, but Drew Brees and his offense couldn't get out of 2nd gear.  The game plan was to kill a blitzing Carolina D with screens and underneath routes to RB Darren Sproles, but once the Saints fell behind and had to hit bigger plays downfield, Brees couldn't make the connections.  I continue to have a bad feeling about New Orleans as the season wears on.  If that offense isn't clicking, that defense will get them beat consistently.
• Bad, worse, worst.  Bad:  New England's pass protection.  Worse:  Arizona's ball security, as they were trying to run the ball and run the clock out when they simply coughed the thing up into the air for anyone to grab.  New England took it and drove down for what should have been the game-winning FG.  Worst:  Stephen Gostkowski, who nailed four long FGs on the day, only to hook the game-winner badly.  And down in flames go millions of Boston-area survivor pools.  Oh, and I dunno what the Pats are trying to with their pass distribution, but it sure looks like they're trying to phase out Wes Welker.  He isn't being targeted nearly as much as usual.  Good luck with that, Mr. Brady.
• I thought that Minnesota would feed Adrian Peterson and destroy Indianapolis on the ground, and I thought Jared Allen and the Vikings would rush Andrew Luck and sit on his head all day.  Neither happened.  Luck displayed some surprising elusivity, which isn't a word but I just made it one, in avoiding the rush and hitting big passes when needed, and the Colts get a FG and win it late.  Yeah, that Luck guy?  He's pretty good.
• Ravens-Eagles was another performance where it seemed like two games in one.  Michael Vick continues to play reckless and give the ball to the other team, and he put Philadelphia in a big hole at home to Baltimore.  Then Vick discovered TE Brent Celek and relied on him to move the chains in the 2nd half, and the Eagles completed a stunning comeback.  As a fantasy guy, I know how frustrated Houston was with Jacoby Jones as they tried to make him a receiving threat, but he was just no good at it.  Joe Flacco certainly made use of him.  I'm still high on Flacco, especially after seeing him make a receiver out of Jones, but he found himself in a high-scoring shootout, and he couldn't answer the bell at the end.  The Ravens D won't always be there to hold the other team down, so Joe still has a ways to go in order to be elite.
• Romeo Crennel is not having fun as the defensive guru and permanent head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs.  Week 1 saw his Chiefs get lit by the Falcons, and Week 2 has 2 TD passes, 2 TD runs, and a punt return against his squad.  And it was the Buffalo Bills!  I'm a C.J. Spiller fan from his college days, but come on, he's not this good.  KC is just this bad.  I ain't picking the Chiefs anytime soon until they show me some consistency, on offense and defense.
• 318 yards and three TD throws from Andy Dalton, and the Bengals still couldn't blow out the Browns?  A couple of things to take away--Cleveland may have won if their CBs were on the field (Joe Haden was suspended and Sheldon Brown was hurt), and Cleveland isn't a complete no-show on offense apparently.  It's hard to love Brandon Weeden at QB, what with his thin receiving corps and his 83-year-old body, but he almost led the comeback, so he's worth watching.  And Trent Richardson is a bitch to tackle, which is not news, but he's so banged up that it's hard to know when he's going to give a full effort.  Let's see if Cleveland can put together consecutive good efforts on offense.
• Memo to new Raiders coach Dennis Allen:  See that other fucker running everywhere against your defense?  That's called a running back.  His name is Reggie Bush.  You may have heard of him because he used to fuck this skank named Kardashian.  But that's of no matter to you.  What matters is, you have a very good running back too.  His name's Darren McFadden.  I ask you, Allen, what do you think the game outcome will be when you rush McFadden only 11 times for 22 yards?  You think you're gonna win doing that?  Check that final score and get back to me.  Idiot.
• Um, what was that in Seattle?!  Yes, we picked the Seahawks to knock off the new kings of hype, the Dallas Cowboys, but it looked like Dallas didn't even show up.  Dallas fumbled the opening kick, had a punt blocked, and were down 10-0 in the first 5 minutes, and they responded with exactly one scoring drive the whole game.  Maybe Tony Romo still had Carrie Underwood's pussy juice on his fingers from fumbling that FG in the playoffs in Seattle oh so many years ago.  Actually, it's completely unfair to bring that fumble up again because it had nothing to do with this game, but I just want to try and get "Carrie Underwood's pussy juice" trending.
• Washington looked like much the better team in St. Louis for most of the game.  They lost their poise and blew it late, but at least they can try to build off of their good play for the first 3 quarters.  The Rams and Sam Bradford decided to make a star and a new possession WR out of Danny Amendola, but the Redskins were still winning before gagging it up.  Josh Morgan caught a pass for the Skins, then got provoked by annoying CB Cortland Finnegan and threw the ball at him, prompting a 15-yard penalty and making the game-tying FG attempt over 60 yards away.  It was obviously unsuccessful.  There's been a lot of comparing Skins QB Robert Griffin to Cam Newton, but what I saw on Sunday was, Washington has a much more scaled-down, easy-to-process offense in place for RGIII, and that's probably the right move, but the team can only succeed running that offense against really bad defenses like the Saints.  Once they get into division play, I expect them to struggle mightily.
• More Mark Sanchez pump-faking gave the Jets an early edge in Pittsburgh, and I just had to shake my head.  How can it be that easy for an inferior QB and receiving group to get open just by using stutter routes and pump fakes?  Are they going to get big yards all year by doing that?  Unreal.  The Steelers D stepped up big-time in the 2nd half, and they smothered what passed for New York Jets air attacks.  Isaac Redman stepped up as well, running hard for the Steelers, and that's really big, because Todd Haley can try to coordinate big pass plays all he wants for the Pittsburgh offense, but it won't work without a rushing component to force opposing defenses to hesitate before sending everyone at the immobile QB Ben Roethlisberger.
• I'm also shaking my head at the style of play employed by San Francisco.  Alex Smith just keeps making the right decisions, and the ball just keeps moving despite my skepticism.  I'm trying to not point at the other team's D every time the 49ers succeed on offense, because eventually, I have to give credit to Smith, Coach Insane, and the architects putting the game plans together.  But really, the Lions can't cover at all.  Good Lord, their secondary is putrid.  The San Fran D is scary, but that's also not news.  I think they can be beaten, but only by a very well-coached, prepared team, which was not what they faced Sunday night.
• I was sad to see what's become of Peyton Manning's arm on Monday night.  Much was made on commentary of Atlanta disguising defenses and surprising Manning once the play started, but he's seen that shit before.  His reads were what they always have been, but his arm isn't, and that's why he was intercepted three times in the 1st half.  By the time he figured out that he had to scale down his throws in velocity, the comeback fell short.  Denver should be okay going forward, so long as Manning realizes that he's not gunning balls through tight spaces the way he used to.  As for the Falcons, I liked how Matt Ryan didn't try to force the issue, taking what Denver gave him.  His lack of mistakes is what allowed Atlanta to hold the lead.  I think he's learning that when he needs to break out the big gun and hit Roddy White and Julio Jones all over the field, he'll be able to do so, but when it's not necessary, he can be cool and play conservative.  It almost cost his team this time, but it's better than giving the ball away trying to take risks and stay aggressive.

Week 2 Records--Dre & Jay  9-5-2, .643
YTD Records--Dre 20-10-2, .667; Jay 18-12-2, .600

2012 Week #2

Fav	Spread	Dog			Dre	Jay
	Thu. Nite
GB (0-1)	5½	Chi (1-0)	GB 23-10		Chi	Chi
	Sunday
NYG (0-1)	7	TB (1-0)			NY	TB
NO (0-1)	2½	CAR (0-1)			Car	Car
NE (1-0)	13½	Ariz (1-0)			Ariz	NE
Min (1-0)	3	IND (0-1)			Min	Ind
Bal (1-0)	1	PHI (1-0)			Bal	Bal
BUF (0-1)	3	KC (0-1)			KC	Buf
CIN (0-1)	7	Cle (0-1)			Cin	Cin
Hou (1-0)	7	JACK (0-1)			Hou	Hou
Oak (0-1)	1	MIA (0-1)			Oak	Mia
Dal (1-0)	3	SEA (0-1)			Sea	Sea
Wash (1-0)	3½	STL (0-1)			StL	StL
PIT (0-1)	5	NYJ (1-0)			Pit	NY
SD (1-0)	6½	Tenn (0-1)			SD	SD
	Sun. Nite
SF (1-0)	7	Det (1-0)			SF	SF
	Mon. Nite
ATL (1-0)	3	Den (1-0)			Atl	Den

Jason had to e-mail me his picks this week, so in honor of his one-sentence opinions of some of the games, I will also give one and only one sentence for each of my picks.  So here are our picks in just about as little detail as possible:

• Bucs-Giants, J:  "But the Giants win."  D:  Nah, 11 days to get ready for the bad TB defense should give NY the rout.
• Saints-Panthers, J:  None.  D:  Brees will show up again, but I like Cam to get loose on that NO defense.
• Cards-Pats, J:  None.  D:  If Arizona rushes Brady, they may present a problem and earn a backdoor cover.
• Vikes-Colts, J:  None.  D:  Close one, but Jared Allen can eat Andrew Luck for lunch and give Minnesota an edge.
• Ravens-Eagles, J:  "Mike Vick made it through new Cleveland, not so sure about making it through old Cleveland."  D:  Agreed, and if any team can cure Ravens' road woes, it's Eagles, who usually struggle at home.
• Chefs-Bills, J:  "I'm smellin' pushy."  D:  Not me, not with Tamba Hali back for KC and that shitty run D back for Buffalo.
• Browns-Bengals, J:  "The bumslaying continues."  D:  BRANDON WEEDEN?!?
• Texans-Jags, J:  "Squoosh."  D:  Mismatch.
• Raiders-Dolphins, J:  None.  D:  Another tough pick comes down to QB play, so I'll take Interception Santa over Tannehill.
• Cowboys-Seahawks, J:  "Dallas is going into The Meat Grinder."  D:  Best defensive effort wins, so I'll take Seattle in their home opener.
• Redskins-Rams, J:  "LOVE THE HOOK."  D:  Like Rams to win because defensive line should better contain RGIII.
• Jets-Steelers, J:  "...but Pitt for the win."  D:  Getting cute again, but I like Big Ben to torch the Jets' back end with no Revis Island.
• Titans-Chargers, J:  None.  D:  How can Tennessee compete with minimal WRs and no running game??
• Lions-49ers, J:  None.  D:  Can't believe I'm saying this, but I like Alex Smith to perform against a terrible and injured Detroit secondary.
• Broncos-Falcons, J:  "Smellin' more pushy, Peyton lights up Atlanta without Grimes."  D:  Definitely concur on the pushy smell, but I'm siding with Atlanta since I got them winning anyway.

Thu. Nite Bears @ Packers

We're using the 5 and a hook spread from Wednesday because it doesn't matter. Jason and I have been leaning towards taking the Bears straight up since the season began, and that's just what we're gonna do. Green Bay didn't give either of us much of a reason to pick them, so we're not. Chicago is ready to pounce on that terrible Pack secondary, and they also should find running the ball to be easy with the holes their passing attack will open up. Sure, Aaron Rodgers and the Pack should throw and stay in the game, but it feels like they're not quite ready for a shootout, especially now that WR Greg Jennings has been ruled out tonight. The Bears have always looked at the Packer game as bigger than the other games, and they should be ready to hold off Green Bay's desperate actions to try and ward off an 0-2 start. I can hear the experts now: "What's wrong with the Green Bay Packers???" Jason calls it 31-21. I got a few more points, but the same outcome. My Pick: Chicago 37-31

Week 1 ATS Recap: Support Your Local Long Snapper

Ah, week one of the NFL. The guaranteed overreaction week. It's fun because it's so insane. The postgame storylines are full of snap predictions: who's the best team? who's the biggest flop? so-and-so is on pace for 30 touchdowns, the Jets are going to score SEVEN HUNDRED POINTS this season.

So I'm taking a deep breath, and trying not to overreact. We all know that Week 2 is our bugaboo because we think we know it all after Week 1.

• Cowboys (+4) 24, Giants 17 - Both winners - Since I went out on a limb and took Dallas to reach the Super Bowl and the Giants to miss the playoffs, I guess it's hard to make baseless assumptions off this game. Yay me!
• Bears (-10) 41, Colts 21 - Both winners - I predicted 3 picks for Andrew Luck, who came out and threw....three picks. The Colts are a long way off, but the Bears are primed to do some damage. This might be the most complete Bears offense I've ever seen.
• Vikings 26, Jaguars (+3½) 23 - Both winners - We both had the Jags to win, and neither one of us care two shits about these teams, so we'll take the cheap cover and move on.
• Jets (-2½) 48, Bills 28 - Dre winner, Jason loser - The Jets are going to score SEVEN HUNDRED POINTS this season. Actually, they are on pace for 768!! It's incredible. Too bad I still think the Jets are a steaming pile of manure. A win over the Bills will not convince me otherwise.
• Texans (-12½) 30, Dolphins 10 - Both winners - Well, my 30-0 prediction didn't come home for me, and Reggie Bush only accounted for 40% of Miami's offense, not the 80% I thought he would. What looked like a ho-hum game went nuts in the last 2 minutes of the first half, as Houston flexed their muscle on offense and defense to the tune of 21 points in 1:53. Hard to learn much from this game that we didn't already know: the Texans are really friggin' good.
• Patriots (-4½) 34, Titans 13 - Both winners - I'm still mystified how the Pats were 4½ favorites over the Jake Locker led ex-Oilers. This game SCREAMED "trap," but turned out to just be a gift. Was there really money being laid on Tennessee this last weekend? New England is still the class of the AFC East and should sleepwalk to the division title.
• Lions 27, Rams (+9) 23 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Dre killed me in the early games, taking his hatred of the Lions over his hatred of Sam Bradford. The Lions did what they did to start last season: give up a ton of points early and then claw their way back and steal a win. That might have worked last year, but the NFC is much more competetive this year, apparently.
• Redskins (+9) 40, Saints 32 - Both winners - I'm starting to suspect that I may have been wrong about the NFC South. I also was off thinking that RG3 and Washington would be roadkill this year. The Saint defense had no answer for Griffin and his complementary (at best) receiving corps. And just as a odd tidbit of info, the Skins got to 40 by scoring 10 in all four quarters. Can't say I've ever seen that before.
• Eagles 17, Browns (+9½) 16 - Both losers - There's a reason that "taking the Browns to the Super Bowl" is a euphemism for "taking a shit." Brandon Weeden is the latest shit-stain under center for the Poopies. Without his ineptitude and four picks, the Brownies would have easily taken a win away from the Eagles. Instead, they Browned the bed and let and equally unimpressive, but escaping healthy, Mike Vick literally thieve a win at the very end. Pathetic.
• Falcons (-2½) 40, Chiefs 24 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Remember what I said about being wrong about the NFC South? Whoa boy was I wrong about my Atlanta Falcons. I'd lumped Matty Ice in a category with Mark Sanchez, and what do they both do? They shut me up (for one week anyways). Unlike in NY, the Falcons offense looks scary good, with real weapons everywhere. Julio Jones might be regarded as Calvin Johnson good by the end of this season. In our season preview, I touched on how good I thought Jones would be this year, but hot damn he's a monster. Reason for worry: Brent Grimes out for the year. That hurts. Oh yeah, Kansas City, they hung tough in the first half and outgained the Falcons overall, but stats can lie. The eyes told a different story. The arrow is still pointing up for the Chefs, though.
• Niners (+5) 30, Packers 22 - Jason winner, Dre loser - I FINALLY took one from Dre when San Fran went into Lambeau and demolished the Pack. The score was closer than the game, as the Packers benefitted from a cheap punt return with 2 blocks in the back not called, and some late game "heroics" from Aaron Rodgers. The Niners are who I thought they were: stellar defense and just enough offense. My gut told me to take them in the West, and I didn't see any reason to change that. Watch out Packers: the Bears are rolling in Thursday night. The Pack could be looking at 0-2.
• Cardinals (-1) 20, Seahawks 16 - Both losers - So much for the Russell Wilson love fest. That came crashing down quick. The Cards got a go ahead TD pass from Kevin Kolb and Wilson couldn't deliver on a 4th and goal as time ran out.
• Bucs (-1) 16, Panthers 10 - Both losers - The great Cam Newton led the Panthers to exactly TEN points?!? Thanks for nothing Cam (I drafted him in fantasy)! Still I can be proud, as President and Original Member of the Josh Freeman Fan Club. Way to go kiddo!
• Broncos (-1) 31, Steelers 19 - Jason winner, Dre loser - The only thing that would have made that win over the Steelers better for Peyton Manning is some tapenade.
• Ravens (-7) 44, Bengals 13 - Both winners - Oh man, Baltimore is scary good. This is a team that is going to get Terrell Suggs back in time for the playoffs too. Super Bowl or bust for the Ravens. Same ol', same ol' for the Bengals, play a good team and lose. Rinse and repeat. I'll give them this: they're predictable. That's GOLD when picking games.
• Chargers (+1) 22, Raiders 14 - Dre winner, Jason loser - My suspicion is that all 32 teams, this week, are reviewing their backup long-snapper situation. After the horror show put on by we-shouldn't-know-who-he-is Travis Goethel, the plight of the under appreciated long snappers has finally come to light. Looks like Greg Williams was putting the bounties on the wrong guys! He should have been going after the long snappers all along. Everyone has a backup QB, or six wide recievers, but if a team only has one long snapper, and he gets hurt, they're fucked!

Dre 11-5 (.688)
Jason 9-7 (.562)

Two games back, but so what. We'll take this every week.

2012 Week #1

Aaaaannd...they're off!

Fav

Spread

Dog

Final

Dre

Jay

Wed. Nite

NYG

4

Dal

Dal 24-17

Dal

Dal

Sunday

CHI

10

Ind

Chi

Chi

MIN

3½

Jack

Jack

Jack

NYJ

2½

Buf

NY

Buf

HOU

12½

Mia

Hou

Hou

NE

4½

TENN

NE

NE

Elvis

DET

9

StL

StL

Det

NO

9

Wash

Wash

Wash

Phi

9½

CLE

Phi

Phi

Atl

2½

KC

Atl

KC

GB

5

SF

GB

SF

Sea

2½

ARIZ

Sea

Sea

Car

1

TB

Car

Car

Sun. Nite

DEN

1

Pit

Pit

Den

Mon. Nite

BAL

7

Cin

Bal

Bal

OAK

1

SD

SD

Oak

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• We see things the same way in most of the early Sunday games.  In Chicago, Jason and I both like the new-look Bears to romp past the new-look Colts, making it 0-1 for rookie starting QBs even though Andrew Luck should be the most successful of the five in the long haul.  This is a potentially bad spot for Luck, though.  In his very first real pro game, he gets Julius Peppers trying to eat him and a Tampa-2 defensive look to decipher.  I actually wouldn't be too surprised if he solved the puzzle and had some success, however.  Luck is very, very intelligent.  Jason just sees a rookie QB squoosh.
• As terrible as Blaine Gabbert was as the Jacksonville quarterback last year, Christian Ponder wasn't much better for Minnesota.  Maurice Jones-Drew suits up for the Jags, but won't see much PT.  Meanwhile, Adrian Peterson won't be in the game much on the other side of the field.  It's pretty much a toss-up in the Tidy Bowl Crap Game of the Week.  We're taking the Jags to win on a hunch.
• I should give Jason the Buffalo win already because siding with the New York Jets never works out for me.  But I'll back off on striking out my pick before the game even starts.  Jay's right when he observes that the J-E-T-S are a mess, mess, mess, and they should struggle to score any points.  But I'm rebelling against the early hype for the Bills as a sleeper playoff team.  Yeah, they added some great pass rushers, but if those guys don't arrive at the QB, then the QB gets to torch that same back seven that he has the last few years.  Even if that QB is named Total Fraud.  And I have a stat, of course.  Bills, 1-7 on the road last year, Jets 6-2 at home.  And now they have Jesus on their side.
• We really like Houston over Miami, and so does the rest of the betting world, making the Texans the biggest favorites this week.  I tried to not necessarily make my season predictions match up with my picks in Week 1, because of course, just because you made the playoffs doesn't mean you won the first game you played that season.  But in this case, Miami is so bad and Houston is so good, how can I not go with the obvious choice?  Hell, Jason says this may be a shutout.  When your one and only yardage threat is Reggie Bush, who was hot garbage before the 2nd half of last season, you don't have much in the way of hope.  0-2 for the rookie QBs thus far.
• Jason didn't want me to label this our first Elvis Game of the year, but he's the one who mentioned the word "trap" when he found New England, fresh off a Super Bowl appearance, favored by only four and a hook at a mediocre Tennessee squad.  It's a curious line, but I get it--you got a first-year starter at QB for the Titans in Jake Locker, so you don't know what to expect there, but you admit that he's in a perfect spot for his first start.  It's a huge name opponent.  It's at home.  If you show up and give it a game effort, you get pub and a confidence boost.  And the defense you're playing stinks like a sausage factory.  I was leaning towards picking the Titans a few weeks ago when I found out about the matchup because of those factors.  Now the magic moment has arrived...and I got Brady throwing for 300 yards and like 4 TDs and the Pats with a 10-point win.  Yep, I'm a chickenshit.
• Here goes the beginning of my Detroit hate for this season--I'm picking Sam Bradford and the Rams to cover the number on the road at the Lions.  I must really hate Detroit.  I'll never be a bigger Steven Jackson fan than during this contest.  Jason's no Lion lover, but it's the Rams.  He can't see St. Louis holding off the Stafford-to-Johnson connection.
• Here goes my wild and zany upset special of Week 1, and my attempt to not let my preseason picks obscure my vision of these particular games.  I got Washington TO WIN.  Jason merely has them covering, but that's 1-2 for the rookie QBs in our eyes.  My dislike and distrust of the Shanahan Boyz is well-documented, and I don't have them sniffing the playoffs.  But in this, the interim interim Saints coach's first rodeo, I'm taking Robert Griffin III to run around, make some plays, and shock all of New Orleans.  This is the type of ego-boosting skin on the wall that will motivate the Shanahan Boyz to pull out all the stops in order to pull off the win.  And DC will be abuzz, and then Griffin will play better defenses and get pulverized.
• 1-3 for rookie QBs, as Brandon Weeden meets his first pro opponent in the Philadelphia Eagles and wishes he were lying next to Art Modell and not having to witness the carnage.  As always, Jason says, the key for the Eagles is, will Michael Vick be upright when the game ends?  Against the Cleveland Browns, the answer is, yep.  Sure will.
• Very different viewpoints on the Falcons-Chiefs matchup.  Jason says there's no way Atlanta is coming away with a season opener in Arrowhead Stadium.  The Dirty Birds don't get it done on Opening Day, he says, and this will be more of the same.  I definitely disagree, but I add that this is the time for the Falcons to change it up and get the job done.  If ever there was a time to put a flamethrower to those early-season woes and slow starts, this is it.  Kansas City will not have its only pass rusher, Tamba Hali, who's suspended, and their secondary is already banged up.  Your move, Matty Ice.  Your move.
• On to the afternoon slate and the clear main event of the weekend, 49ers at Packers.  I had to adhere to my preseason ramblings and go with the Pack to win and cover here.  I imagine if Green Bay gets to the QB early and rattles him, the prodigy Alex Smith may not throw for 200 yards.  If San Fran's pass rush is the real deal, here's a great chance to flex those muscles against an average at best offensive line.  Let's see what you got, boys.  Jason says this is the matchup we were waiting for in the playoffs last year, but the Giants changed those plans.  Now it's here, top offense vs. top defense, and he's going with the 49ers defense to win.
• Now here's something we may never have seen before.  This phenomenon of starting a rookie QB right out of college is a recent one, so there aren't many to choose from, but how many rookie QBs have been road favs in their very first game?  We'd guess it's never happened.  Such is the love surrounding the new kid on the block, Seattle's Russell Wilson.  And we think that it's so absurd, so ludicrous...that we're going to pick him and give the points.  That's how fucking pitiful John Skelton and the Arizona Cardinals are.  Put Ken Whisenhunt out of his misery and fire the fucker, already.
• Jason messed up this pick for us by citing a stat.  He tried to rationalize it, saying that he only came across it by accident and it didn't really mean much, but the fact is, he cited it.  He knows how bad I do on a pick when I cite a stat, but he did it anyway.  It was just something about how much Cam Newton owned the Buccaneers statistically last year.  Yes, Cam owned pretty much everyone he played last year.  We could have ignored that and just picked the Panthers to rout the Bucs and moved on.  But no, Jason cited a stat, and now Carolina's gonna get upset by Tampa, and there's nothing we can do about it.  Thanks a lot, Jason.
• On a special Sunday edition of Sunday Night Football, Peyton Manning gets to resume his Hall of Fame career...against a Pittsburgh defense that last played against that same Broncos team in that same building, getting carved up by Tim Tebow and having their season ended.  Think they remember that?  I do.  That's why I'm taking Pittsburgh to come in and gain a measure of revenge against Denver, even though Manning had nothing to do with their loss earlier this year.  Jason will go with the Broncos.  If Peyton's still got it, he's got a prime time stage to show everyone, and Jason will root hard for him to complete his comeback with a victory.
• On to the Monday night doubleheader, which I always get hyped for during the day, only to fall asleep in the first quarter of the nightcap.  First up, Baltimore, our Super Bowl pick, hosting Cincinnati.  Jason declared Dalton-to-Green the new-age Jeff-Blake-to-Carl-Pickens combo, and if you're too young to know about that duo, look it up on your own personal Google machine.  That combo never won diddly squat because once you stopped that play, the Bengals had nothing left, and it may be the same now.  This is my Lock of the Week, BTW.
• And on the West Coast, the Raiders will fight through their crowd and try to avoid getting shivved before they take on the Chargers.  Jason will ride with Darren McFadden, the oft-injured but hugely talented Oakland RB, and he'll take Interception Santa over the Bolts.  I don't doubt that McFadden will dominate in the running game, but it's San Diego QB Philip Rivers's first chance to show what he's got after that abominable 2011 campaign.  I'll have plenty of chances to be proven wrong if Rivers, TE Antonio Gates, WR Malcom Floyd, and others on the Chargers are not yet healthy and are hurting the team.  But in their very first game?  Give me Rivers over the #27 pass defense last year.  Fuck, there I go using stats again.  I just handed another pick to Jay.