2011 Week #17

And now, for the long-awaited return of our third picking partner...Coin!!  Yes, the lucky dime has made its triumphant return to pick games with Jason and me for Week 17, because Week 17 has long had the most random, bullshit results out of any of the weeks.  We brought out Coin three years ago to pick with us for Week 17, and we were shocked that Coin finished worse than both of us.  But before you think that Coin was just awful, no no, Coin went a healthy 7-8-1 that week, not so bad when you consider, it's a coin.  We were pretty damn good that week, as it turned out.  I was 8-7-1, and Jason was a robust 11-4-1.  So, without further adieu, our picks alongside Coin for this slate of regular season finales.  (BTW, in regards to how Coin decides its picks, heads = favorites, and tails = underdogs.)

Fav Spread Dog Dre Jay Coin

PHI (7-8)	9	Wash (5-10)			Phi	Phi	Wash
MIA (5-10)	3	NYJ (8-7)			Mia	Mia	Mia
NO (12-3)	9	Car (6-9)			Car	Car	NO
Det (10-5)	3½	GB (14-1)			Det	GB	GB
SF (12-3)	10½	STL (2-13)			StL	SF	StL
JACK (4-11)	3½	Ind (2-13)			Ind	Ind	Ind
NE (12-3)	10½	Buf (6-9)			Buf	NE	Buf
Tenn (8-7)	1½	HOU (10-5)			Hou	Tenn	Tenn
MIN (3-12)	1	Chi (7-8)			Chi	Min	Chi
Pit (11-4)	7	CLE (4-11)			Pit	Pit	Pit
Bal (11-4)	1	CIN (9-6)			Cin	Bal	Bal
ATL (9-6)	11	TB (4-11)			TB	Atl	TB
DEN (8-7)	3½	KC (6-9)			KC	KC	KC
OAK (8-7)	3	SD (7-8)			Oak	SD	SD
ARIZ (7-8)	3	Sea (7-8)			Ariz	Sea	Ariz
	Sun. Nite
NYG (8-7)	3	Dal (8-7)			Dal	NY	Dal

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• We both like Philadelphia to continue their late-season revival and drill the hapless Washington Redskins into Bolivian.  Jason observes that the Dream Team is not mentally tough, but they've been able to turn it on in the 2nd half after most of the hype had died, and it should continue versus the Shanahan Boyz, setting up Philly for the Houston Texans Memorial Pre-Season Media Darling for 2012.
• Hard to imagine that Jets outfit righting the ship and just deciding to get the win just because they need it to make the playoffs.  We like the Dolphins to savor knocking New York out despite not having Reggie Bush to run the rock.  And I personally like the Jets to take a QB in the draft.  End the Total Fraud reign already, Rex.
• Another agreement as we like that hot Carolina offense to keep them close against the red hot New Orleans offense.  Yes, the Saints are gunning for that first-round bye, but the defense can let Cam Newton and the Panthers stick around.
• Oh, those Week 17 point spreads.  The 14-1 Pack are dogs at home?  Say what???  And I'm giving the points and taking the Lions!  I hoped that Detroit wouldn't make the playoffs because I didn't think they deserved it after all the immaturity, but they're in, and they want to grab the #5 seed, and the Packers have absolutely nothing to play for.  Jason will still go with the Pack.  Something about windy conditions at Lambeau affecting the dome team Lions.  But does it matter against Matt Flynn?
• I am picking the Rams to stay close against the 49ers because I'd take any team getting 10½ against that San Francisco offense, but also because I admire how hard Steven Jackson continues to play despite his team's crummy season.  If St. Louis can knock off New Orleans, they can surely hang against the Niners.  Jason thinks St. Louis is more gutless than Indianapolis and will therefore go all-out to tank this game and try to secure the #1 draft pick.  They gotta be more professional than that...don't they?
• And speaking of the Colts, Jason heard that Jacksonville was favored and immediately took Indianapolis to win.  Blaine Gabbert favored?  As Rick Sutcliffe would slur, "No no no no no..."  But I fucked up the pick by saying that I actually like Jacksonville to win, but the hook scared me, so I like Indy to cover.  Smells like a 3-point game to me.  And as we know, getting cute like that almost never works.
• Jason likes New England to throttle Buffalo and therefore make the Bills finish with the same record as the Dolphins, which has been Jason's agenda for this 2nd half of the year.  The Patriots need this win to lock in the #2 seed and a bye, and a motivated New England squad with revenge on its mind for the Buffalo upset win in Week 3 seems daunting.  But I like Buffalo finding its way on offense the last couple of games, and that New England D should let the Bills hang around.
• The arrow is pointing down for Houston, but I like them over Tennessee because the Titans look very wobbly trying to limp into the playoffs with their ancient core veterans and hot-cold-hot-cold star RB Chris Johnson.  Plus, the Texans should use the extra days of prep after the Thursday night loss in Indy to gather one more big effort before the playoffs, even though Houston is locked in to the #3 seed.  Arian Foster may rest?  Fine, I think Ben Tate will be happy to take 20 carries.  Jason likes Tennessee because they're playing for something and because Houston has looked very bad.  The T.J. Yates Bandwagon looks empty and desolate.
• Jay will complete the Bears Won't Win A Game Without Cutler prophecy and pick a beat-up Vikings team to get the win.  I can't do that to the veteran Chicago defenders, especially Pro Bowlers Lance Briggs and Peanut Tillman and Hall-of-Famer Brian Urlacher.  They have to trounce Joe Webb and Toby Gerhart and go into the offseason with a teeny tiny amount of pride still intact.  Don't they?
• In the AFC North scenario, Pittsburgh needs to beat Cleveland and have Baltimore lose to Cincinnati in order to take the division and a bye.  Jason and I will be happy to take the Steelers to go into Cleveland and concuss the remaining Browns QBs, taking care of one half of that situation...
• ...But we differ on the other half.  Jason likes Baltimore to man up and put down the Bengals because Cincinnati is actually good and Baltimore won't play down to them.  If they sucked, Jay would like the Bengals.  I like the Bengals because they're still fighting for the playoffs and because the Ravens look old and sickly to me.  That wouldn't stop me from taking them next weekend to win a Wild Card game at the AFC West champ, but only if WR Anquan Boldin is back.
• As bad as Tampa Bay has looked, and as great as Atlanta looked the last time a Florida team came into the Georgia Dome (Jags, Week 15), and as much as the Falcons may want to win trying to avoid the #6 seed and a date next week with the Saints, I'm taking the Lions to win early in the day and lock up the #5 seed, making this game meaningless for Atlanta, and I'm taking Tampa to give it a lot better effort than the Dirty Birds.  They'll probably win the game just because it's so meaningless.  Raheem Morris will get fired anyway.
• And now for the AFC West showdowns.  Tim Tebow (Pro Bowl Alternate?  Really?!!) and the Broncos are in if they beat former Bronco Kyle Orton and the Chiefs, but even if they lose, they're still in with an Oakland loss versus San Diego.  We both like the Chefs to "upset" Denver.  Even Coin hath forsaken Tebow.  Jason observed that the lucky dime has "In God We Trust" inscribed on the front before I flipped it, and it still landed tails...
• ...But Jason and Coin both will take the Chargers to go into the Black Hole and knock off the Raiders and give Tebow the back-door entry into the AFC West title and the playoffs.  And if Tebow really is a homo, as my wife thinks, then he'll enjoy the back-door action.  As much as I hate to take them because it will validate the horrible Carson Palmer trade, I'm picking Oakland to beat up San Diego.  I was on the Chargers all the way until Philip Rivers stopped throwing well last week.
• In the meaningless Seahawks-Cardinals tilt, Jason likes the Seahawks because...eh, they're playing a little better.  I like the Cards because...eh, fuck it.  I don't have a good reason.  They're at home, how about that?
• And in the first playoff game of the new year, it's Cowboys at Giants.  I've made it clear--I got Dallas all the way because the Giants suck as home favorites.  Suck, suck, suck.  That's all the reason I need.  And Jason will take New York because Dallas still has the dumber QB and head coach, just as they did when they found a way to lose to the G-Men in Texas a few weeks ago.  I like Coin being on my side, and I like picking Seattle to beat St. Louis last year in the first playoff game, so maybe I'm on a roll.  I'm the new Vegas tout: I NEVER lose--on Week 17 win-and-you're-in Sunday nights!!!

2011 Week 16: What I Learned

Sugar Huddle!  All Week 16 games in almost no detail as we get ready for a fun and frenzied Week 17:

• I guess one of the hottest teams in the league the last two weeks is...the Indianapolis Colts!  Way to fuck up the #1 draft pick.  Houston is not ready for prime time, or playoff time.
• The league's worst defense strikes again and almost costs New England the game.  But hey, way to keep fighting, Dolphins, for whatever it's worth.
• Baltimore continues to underwhelm me as they barely beat the Browns, giving me a cheap cover.  Can't emphasize how much I hate the Ravens in the playoffs, especially with their only consistent WR at less than 100%.
• Yep, Jason was right.  We couldn't get the Cincy-Arizona spread right.  Never works out when we try that shit.  In other news, catch of the millennium.
• Nice job, Redskins--take out the stud RB and young QB for the Vikings, and still get your doors blown off.  You suck hard.  Neither Minnesota or Washington is any good.
• Neither is Denver.  News flash:  Tim Tebow is bad at QB.
• Congrats to the Steelers, who stepped up for their missing QB by routing their opponent and building momentum for a playoff push...oh wait, they beat the Rams.  Never mind.
• Can you give failing grades to both QBs in the same game?  Because Eli Manning and Mark Sanchez both stunk out the Meadowlands.  The momentum changer was, one QB has Victor Cruz, and the other doesn't.  I love Dallas to come into New York and win the division next week.  The Giants have only one effective WR, and their QB is ice cold.
• Tampa Bay blows.  If the Panthers get some kind of D next season, watch out.
• Tennessee blew the spread for me on purpose, it seemed.  They threw two picks while driving to put the game away, then fumbled a ball in their own territory after stopping Jacksonville on 4th down.  The Titans were determined to not cover the number, and they succeeded.  And they're still in playoff contention!  Bastards.
• Interception Santa in KC?  That would be Kyle Orton, the Chiefs QB.  But that's not even what lost the game.  That would be Richard Seymour blocking two FGs for Oakland, forcing OT, where the Raiders kicked the winning FG.  Guess that's why Oakland paid Seymour the big bucks.
• San Diego is unstoppable when Philip Rivers is on.  Rivers was 28-53-299, one TD, 2 INT.  Rivers was not on.  San Diego is out.  Detroit is in.  Norv Turner is fucked.
• The moment Tony Romo was knocked out of the Dallas-Philly game, as Hawk Harrelson would say, it was OVAH.  But Romo will be fine for next Sunday night in the Meadowlands.
• SF keeps finding ways to win ugly.  I still don't want any part of them in the playoffs.
• And let's make this a combo entry: The two best offenses in the NFC lit it up on Sunday and Monday night.  I'm laying it all down right here--there's absolutely no fucking way that the NFC title game won't be New Orleans at Green Bay.  All the other prelim fights in the first two playoff weekends won't matter.  The Saints and Packers are running their offenses too damn good to be stopped by anyone except each other.

Week 16 Records--Dre 7-9, .438; Jay 9-7, .563
YTD Records--Dre 107-124-9, .463; Jay 117-114-9, .506

2011 Week #16

Love to get off to that great start to the week by winning ATS on Thursday night.  Unfortunately, that was the last Thursday game of the season.  Now on to this wild and wacky Saturday slate of games in the NFL.

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

	Thu. Nite
Hou (10-4)	7	IND (1-13)	Ind 19-16		Ind	Ind
	Saturday
NE (11-3)	9½	Mia (5-9)			NE	NE
BAL (10-4)	12½	Cle (4-10)			Cle	Bal
CIN (8-6)	4½	Ariz (7-7)			Ariz	Ariz
WASH (5-9)	7	Min (2-12)			Wash	Min
Den (8-6)	2½	BUF (5-9)			Buf	Den
PIT (10-4)	12	StL (2-12)			StL	Pit
NYJ (8-6)	3	NYG (7-7)			NYJ	NYG
CAR (5-9)	9	TB (4-10)			Car	Car
TENN (7-7)	7½	Jack (4-10)			Tenn	Jack
KC (6-8)	1	Oak (7-7)			KC	KC
DET (9-5)	1	SD (7-7)			SD	Det
DAL (8-6)	1	Phi (6-8)			Phi	Phi
SF (11-3)	1	SEA (7-7)			Sea	Sea
	Sun. Nite
GB (13-1)	11½	Chi (7-7)			GB	GB
	Mon. Nite
NO (11-3)	7	Atl (9-5)			NO	Atl

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• I still want to figure out our record when we pick the same team, because I don't think it's ever been very good.  We're going against each other on eight of the 15 remaining games, so it will be one of the more interesting weeks.  Here's one Jason and I agree on, those plucky Dolphins visiting those powerful Patriots.  The question with every Pats opponent is, can the offense fly high enough to keep up with New England?  We don't believe in Miami's ability to slow down Tom Brady and the boys.  And we can't pick Miami to keep up when they're still only 24th in the league passing.
• Baltimore is giving big points to Cleveland, and I will take the points because Seneca Wallace is playing better than Colt McCoy was at QB for the Browns (Jason tried to catch me and gave me a toss-up of McCoy vs. Sam Bradford, and because I'm not stupid, I said that I'd rather have Sam) and because Baltimore lost their most consistent receiving threat, Anquan Boldin, for the rest of the regular season.  Jason likes the Ravens because they should be nice and steamed after being embarrassed on NBC by San Diego, and Jason always leans towards the Ravens when they're coming off a thrashing.
• We're both going out of our minds and trying to nail a spread where we like the favorite to win but the underdog to cover.  And the spread is only 4½!  It's understandable to try that when the number's 10 or something, but 4½ means that we're basically expecting Cincinnati to beat Arizona by a FG only.  It's fucked up how we both liked the exact same scene to play out, but after making so many picks throughout the years, maybe we're starting to think alike.  That should frighten the fuck out of our respective wives.  Jason asked me to strike through this pick early, because we never get it right when we try to be cute like that.
• Back to our disagreements.  I can't take Minnesota to hang in there with Washington for one simple reason:  The thing the Redskins can do when the Vikings and Jared Allen start pressuring Rex Grossman in the pocket is throw it deep and beat the rush, and the Vikings have proven that the one thing they don't want to do this season is cover somebody.  I still have nightmares about the number of wide open receivers Tim Tebow had when he led the Broncos from behind over Minnesota.  Rex should have those same open guys, and he can actually throw.  Jason calls it "Ninja Defense," because the Vikings secondary looks at a guy, who then throws up the smoke bomb and vanishes, then reappears behind them running toward the end zone with the football.  Yet he wants the Vikes to cover, because it feels like a sluggish, 13-9 type game between two non-contenders.
• I'm trying to keep an open mind when picking Denver games because it's easy to let the Tebow Thing cloud your judgment.  And I am going with Buffalo at home to knock them off.  The Bills haven't stopped anyone all year, but they showed a little offensive spark last week.  I'm betting on them showing up for their last home game and engaging in a shootout, and maybe Stevie Johnson goes off, tired of hearing all of the Tebow crap.  As for Jay, he would like to unveil the JTG Unsponsored Stat of the Week!  Jason only wants to reveal one statistic that he feels relevant every week, while I pore over a lot of stuff.  This week, the number is 203.  What's 203?  Why, that's only Reggie Bush's rushing total last week in a Buffalo wintry mix.  What may Tebow and the other running backs do to the poor Bills?  Stay tuned.
• More big points for me!  I'll take the Rams to cover over Pittsburgh because the Steelers QB this week, Charlie Batch, is so old that he's not more mobile than Big Ben Roethlisberger.  This could be the lowest scoring game of the season among all games.  Pittsburgh's success is predicated on scoring strikes downfield in the passing game, and if Big Ben can't do that, they struggle to score.  Jason will go with the favorites because a 13-0 score counts.
• And in maybe the most shocking pick we've ever had, I, the big New York Giants fan, the Eli Manning fantasy league owner, I am looking at the war of words in Gotham and I am weighing the factors carefully, and I am picking...Gang Green!  I just feel that Eli is crumbling under pressure again, and this feels like he will cough up a lead by throwing a bad pick and the Jets will somehow cover the number.  And Jason, the bestower of the moniker Total Fraud upon Mark Sanchez, hater of Rex Ryan's mouth, Jason's taking...the G-Men!  Actually, Jason wanted to invent the Push Pick, where he predicts a game to be a push ATS, but we don't do that here at IMLD.  You gotta pick one way or the other.  So he went with the Giants because they're underdogs and they can cover without winning.  See, I think this game, for all the yap between coaches and other players and each other, is all about Eli.  He plays well, the Giants win, and he's the toast of the town.  He doesn't, the Jets win, and he's laughed at for thinking he was "elite."  I gotta go with the latter.  I've seen Eli and coach Tom Coughlin gag too many times.
• We agree to take the Panthers to trounce the Bucs.  Moving on...
• Back to disagreeing.  Jason will back the Jaguars to cover a big spread with a hook at Tennessee.  I will back the Titans.  It's their last stand as they try to make a playoff push, and Jacksonville's QB continues to be terrible.  And Tennessee's QB, Matt Hasselbeck, was feeling better this week healthwise.
• We will back Kyle Orton and Kansas City as they try to cripple Oakland's postseason hopes.  KC can still make the playoffs, if you can believe that.  Jason welcomes back to the main stage Interception Santa, a.k.a. Carson Palmer, who throws balls to everyone who wants one, even if you're being naughty and playing for the other team.  (Wait, that sounded dirty...)  It's the giving season, and we expect Palmer to be very giving to the Chiefs secondary.
• The only game we disagree on in that four-game 1-point spread clusterfuck is San Diego visiting Detroit.  Whichever team is trailing at the 2:00 warning in the 4th quarter has the opposition right where they want them.  The Chargers can explode and score on anybody, and of course, the Lions come roaring back at a moment's notice.  Jason will take the Lions to hold on and get another needed win, while I will pick Philip Rivers and San Diego to pull off a big road win and stay alive for a division title.
• I don't think Jason is being totally honest with his Philly pick, but it's his pick, so I have to honor it.  He's putting an end to the newfound Eagles love, and he's picking them to win right now.  "End this shit right now!" he said.  He can't believe that Philadelphia can still somehow win that division.  So he figures, if he takes them, they will lose and be eliminated.  He doesn't actually believe in the Eagles surge, but he's taking them as a way to snuff them out.  I do believe in the Eagles, actually, and I may pick them the rest of the way, so long as Michael Vick can still go.
• And we believe in Seattle to keep up their hot streak, although this may have as much to do with how San Francisco is playing their guys than anything else.  If SF was at full strength, I don't believe we would back the Seahawks here, but the loud Seattle home advantage and the Niners being in a little bit of disarray lead us to go with the Skittles gang.
• Christmas night features a 15-1 team going against a squad of 3rd-stringers, guys who have never seen the field as starters, some who have and were bad, a team that has "QUIT" written all over it.  Guess which team we're picking?
• And Monday night sees Jason and me going in opposite directions.  Jason thinks the Falcons will put up a fight for New Orleans because they're in the same division and they know what to expect, so they will give the Saints a run.  I'm taking the Saints squoosh.  Hell, I'm taking the Saints the rest of the season if they're playing on turf indoors, and that includes the playoffs.  New Orleans is just that hot, and QB Drew Brees is just that good lately.

Thu. Nite Texans @ Colts

Houston comes into Indianapolis as a seven-point favorite, and this one was tough for me.  I'm on a roll picking the Colts, so I have to respect that they have a cover streak going and that they're at home on a Thursday night, which has been the winning side for almost all of this year's Thursday games.  But Houston clearly has the better team, and they waxed the Colts to start the season.  But won't that motivate the Colts?  But do the Colts have anything left to play for now that they've achieved that one victory?  But shouldn't the Texans run roughshod over Indy, like every other team?  But hasn't the Indy run defense really been shored up this season by the outstanding play of Pat Angerer?  Gah!!  So many angles, so many factors...in the end, I split the baby and picked Houston to win and Indy to cover.  I don't think Jason went through all of those thoughts when he also took the Colts to cover.  He says he's back on the Thursday home team, simple as that.  And that's the difference between Jason and me.  One trusts his gut, the other overanalyzes everything.  But at least this time, we arrived at the same conclusion.  Hope we get it right.

My Pick:  Houston 19-14

Week 15 ATS Recap: The Race to the Bottom

Picking all the games can certainly lead to some humbling experiences. It's so easy to think that we have this all figured out after almost 4 full months of games, and then a week like this last one comes along to show us just how little we truly know. The late season push to be the chic pick of the next season has begun, and we might have to rename the award now that the Houston Texans have finally stepped up to claim a division crown. This is gonna be a tough week to dissect game-by-game considering all the losers on the board, but hopefully some things can be learned from the failures.

• Falcons (-13½) 41, Jaguars 14 (Thursday) - Both losers - Who was that that said they weren't taking any more road teams on Thursday nights? Oh, it was me, and I fell in love with the points and ignored a Falcon team that has put together a fairly solid regular season after a rocky 3-3 start.
• Cowboys (-7) 31, Buccaneers 15 (Saturday) - Both winners - The Cowboys may be dumb, but the Bucs are done.
• Bengals 20, Rams 13 - PUSH - Gotta love the Garbage Time Push. After stocking up on pushyness the first few weeks of the year, we managed to avoid the gamblers nightmare lately. This week gave us two. One, I was thrilled with. This one, however, I was not.
• Dolphins (+1) 30, Bills 23 - Both winners - So back in my Week 11 recap, I said that I would not be surprised if the Bills got overtaken in the division by Miami. Well, by virtue of this result, they are tied at 5-9 with two to play. Count that as one trend I saw. With all the ones I've missed, ya gotta savor the victories.
• Redskins (+6½) 23, Giants 10 - Jason winner, Dre loser - This looked like a field goal decision to me, one of those typical ugly, sloppy, close NFC East matchups. Other than the score, they totally lived up to the ugly and the sloppy. Does anyone want to win the NFC East?
• Colts (+7) 27, Titans 13 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Let's see: I was on the Colts to win one early, and Dre's been on them more of late. One of us was bound to be right eventually. The Colts brass came out and said that the Colts may need to win one game to save Jim Caldwell's job. Wow, way to set that bar high, guys! Maybe Rich Kotite would like another crack at this NFL coaching thing, since all it takes is ONE FUCKING WIN to save your job.
• Seahawks (+3½) 38, Bears 14 - Both winners - This was the easiest pick of the week. I may have dubbed Carson Palmer as "Interception Santa" this last week, but at least Palmer has had a modicum of NFL success. Caleb Hanie had his third three-pick game in all of four starts, and has now lost his job to one of the McCowns. Which one, no one cares. Funny to believe that Bear fans were clamoring for Hanie at one point. Incredible.
• Chiefs (+13½) 19, Packers 14 - Both losers - It's really hard to go undefeated. There's a reason it hasn't happened in almost 40 years. Every team gets up to knock off the undefeated team, and when that team happens to also be the Super Bowl Champs? Too much for the Packers to overcome, especially with shoddy defense and drop-happy receivers in a hostile environment to begin with. Living in Wisconsin, I have to say nothing has been pissing me off more than the Packer "fans" all writing this team off now that they've lost a game and been "exposed." Your team is 13-1. Shut the fuck up!
• Panthers (+6) 28, Texans 13 - Both losers - When you're down to your third string QB, best not to be turing the ball over three times. Houston handed out two picks and lost a fumble while Carolina played a clean game and hung on late for the win. What looked like it was going to be another second half collapse for the Panthers never materialized, and it was nice to see Cam Newton escape with a win. As Dre pointed out, the kid looked mentally beat down from all the losing, despite his great rookie season.
• Saints (-9) 42, Vikings 20 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Drew Brees is a monster.
• Lions 28, Raiders 27 - PUSH - Speaking of beasts, Calvin Johnson (the Cowboys third best receiver) single handedly saved my fantasy playoff matchup with 214 yards receiving and 2 touchdowns, the last of which beat the Raiders in the last minute and saved me from ANOTHER loss on the week against Dre. Interception Santa also must have had the Lions on his naughty list, because he managed not to throw one to the boys in blue all game. Of course, the Raiders still lost.
• Cardinals 20, Browns (+6½) 17 - OT - Both losers - We're always mystifed how Cleveland scores points at all. This week, they went to perennial backup Seneca Wallace for a spark, and got enough out of him to cover the number.
• Eagles (-3) 45, Jets 19 - Both losers - FUUUUUUCCCCKKKKKKKKK you Jets! I needed you guys to end the Eagles B.S. now, because can I really expect the stupidest team in the league to do it this week? The Eages need a LOT of help to win the NFC East at 8-8, but I do have to say that nobody will want to play them in the first round if they do it.
• Patriots (-9) 41, Broncos 23 - Both losers - The Broncos came out with a nice gameplan against the Pats. It was up tempo and featured a run-it-down-your-fucking-throat style of play the NFL hasn't seen this year (Oakland came close when McFadden was healthy). But then the Broncos got a bad case of the Fumbleitis, and you can't do that against Tom Brady and that New England offense.
• Chargers (+1½) 34, Ravens 14 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Baltimore was in the game, down only 10 at halftime, but then took their first three drives of the second half and went pick-pick-punt, while the Chargers scored 14 more points in that same period. Ballgame.
• Niners (-3) 20, Steelers 3 - Both losers - OK, Big Ben had ZERO business being out on the field for this game. Yes, the Steelers had a chance to capitalize on the Ravens loss Sunday night, but when your franchise QB has only one move, and that one move is evading the pass rush, and he's IMMOBILE.....you know what's going to happen. Roethlisberger turned into a statue in the pocket on his bum ankle, and the San Fran D teed him up to the tune of three sacks, a ton of pressures, and three picks. The Steelers get a couple creampuffs to finish out the season, and had better start to think about resting Big Ben.

2011 Week 15: What I Learned

• It's getting down to that murky time of the season where some teams are crumbling, some are just getting it together, and some are quitting.  And it's up to us, your friendly prognosticators, to figure out which is which.  Our ten combined wins this week says, it's going to be a bitch trying to sort it all out.
• Games in no detail:  Jaguars-Falcons (yeah, we were LOUD WRONG on that one), Cowboys-Buccaneers (okay team whoops terrible team, nothing to see here), Dolphins-Bills (wait, Buffalo let Reggie Bush rush for 200 yards on them?!?), Titans-Colts (easy for Indy to drop back into Tampa-2 when Hasselbeck proves he's ineffective, and I repeat, Tennessee should go to the bullpen and start Locker at QB), Saints-Vikings (great turf team whoops terrible anywhere team, nothing to see here), Browns-Cardinals (Seneca ran Cleveland offense better than Colt, but o-line breakdown loses the game), Ravens-Chargers (SD when Philip Rivers is making his throws cannot be stopped).
• A couple of small notes from the Bengals-Rams game.  A big F-U to Kellen Clemens, who played a good game at QB for St. Louis, including the last drive to get the TD that blew the cover for Jason and me.  And a big uh-oh to Cincinnati, who may fail to make the playoffs if they can't stop their stud WR from getting banged up at this late stage of the season.  Rookie WR A.J. Green made his usual array of circus catches, but he was getting up slower and slower as the game wore on and holding different aching body parts.  If he's less than 100% for these last two games, the Bengals can forget the postseason.
• Speaking of uh-oh, cue up Danyelle Sargent:  WHAT THE FUCK WAS THAT?!! Pt. 1--Redskins 23, Giants 10.  Wha??  Actually, this is somewhat easy to explain.  Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning don't handle prosperity well.  They have their backs against the wall going into Dallas last week, they come out on top.  They get a breather this week playing an awful Washington team at home, and they shit the bed.  I'm not even going back into the archives to see how the Giants have earned their rep as chokers when they're favored.  Just this season, they're 1-4-1 ATS as home favorites.  Unacceptable and unbelievable, and I did get fooled again, so I'm disqualified from using the CSI sound drop.  I have no reasoning behind it, some guys just can't handle being the top dog.  And just for extra emphasis, let me state it clearly:  Holy fuck, did Eli Manning suck dick in this game.  His throws were so off that I think some of them landed in the Hudson.
• Chicago played well for about a quarter and a half, gaining a 14-7 lead despite losing WR Johnny Knox to a horrific vertebrae injury.  Then the turnovers started coming fast and furious, Seattle built a lead, and the more the Bears pressed and tried to mount a comeback, the more QB Caleb Hanie had to drop back for passes, and the more disaster struck.  That guy doesn't need to be playing QB in the NFL.  He may be a great Arena League player, or Canadian League, but he's as much of an NFL quarterback as Tim Tebow.  That offensive line doesn't help, either.  And I have to give props once again to Tarvaris Jackson, who is doing a very good job managing games for the Seahawks, that is, not fucking up and throwing games to the other team like Hanie.  And Skittles sales must be sky high all around the Pacific Northwest.
• WHAT THE FUCK WAS THAT?!! Pt. 2--Chiefs 19, Packers 14.  Wha??  Did Green Bay miss Greg Jennings that much?  Or did having a real QB and coach make that big a diff for Kansas City?  Either way, the perfect season dream is over, and the Pack find themselves trying to stay in rhythm and motivated for the last two games.  No one cares what this means for KC, so congrats to Kyle Orton and Romeo Crennel, and now, get the fuck off the stage.  The real question is, did the Packers get exposed and do teams have a way to beat them in Wisconsin in January?  I'm still picking them to win it all because the Saints have to play up in Green Bay, and everyone else from the AFC is fatally flawed, even more than the Pack.
• WHAT THE FUCK WAS THAT?!! Pt. 3--Panthers 28, Texans 13.  Wha??  Just when we are ready to put our faith in T.J. Yates and back the Texans for a long playoff run, they get their doors blown off by a Carolina squad that hasn't held a lead almost all damn year.  We learned that Yates can't lead comebacks every week without his best player, Andre Johnson.  We learned that Houston can be in trouble if they don't establish that strong running game immediately (Arian Foster ran fine, but he got fumbleitis).  And we learned that Carolina can make adjustments and put in good game plans.  They moved the ball so well against a fierce Texans pass rush because Cam Newton really got the ball out fast every throw.  And with the big lead, Newton didn't have to keep throwing all game and risk the interceptions, and the Panthers were able to use their formidable rush game.  The blueprint is there to beat Houston--quick throws, put their backs to the wall, and create turnovers.
• Detroit does it again!  For the 4th time this year, they came back and won a game in which they trailed by 13 or more points.  That's a league record.  What can you say?  Stafford-to-Johnson can be a legendary combo if they keep this up.  What a great feeling it must be for Matthew Stafford to know that anytime he needs to complete a big pass, he can hit his WR Megatron and move the chains, or score the game-winning TD in this case.  I guess I should just thank the heavens that Detroit was favored by one and not Oakland, or else this would have been yet another comeback win for Jason.  Instead, it was a comeback push.  Still sucks, though.  I still don't believe in the Lions, BTW.
• WHAT THE FUCK WAS THAT?!! Pt. 4--Eagles 45, Jets 19.  Wha??  Are the Eagles really back from the dead like a zombie?  Well, as long as Michael Vick is in at QB and not Vince Young, I guess Philadelphia is capable of anything.  But off to a 28-0 lead?  Yes, I think the Jets are overrated, but that even surprised me.  You wouldn't want to be Santonio Holmes on this day--a couple of fumbles and a ridiculous TD celebration considering the Jets were still down 16 at that point.  Really?  But the story was how great Vick looked without a Jets pass rush hurrying him.  His throws were on time and accurate, and his scrambles were deadly because they weren't panicked and he didn't have to do it every snap.  The Jets continue their subpar road play, but this was a new low, even for them.  It will be like a porn convention Saturday at Giants Stadium, because the two New York teams will compete to see who can choke the hardest.
• Okay, who still thinks the Patriots are on the road to the Super Bowl?  If you do, I urge you to watch the 1st quarter of the Pats-Broncos game.  They gave up over 200 yards of offense in one quarter to Tim Tebow and the rest of that crappy Denver offense.  Over 200 yards in one fucking quarter!  The TV crew pointed out that Denver for some reason has gotten murdered in the 2nd quarter this season, coming in at a -87, and sure enough, when the smoke cleared at halftime of this contest, the Pats had outscored the Broncos by 20.  The score went from a 16-7 Denver lead to a 27-16 NE advantage, and despite his heroics all year, making Tebow play catch-up didn't work out because the Patriots came after him with a ferocious pass rush.  I may like New England's chances a little more if Mark Anderson can play DE like that every game, but we know the former Bear can't, and that's why he's a former Bear.  And if they can force turnovers like that all the time, they wouldn't be such a putrid defense.  But they can't.  Meanwhile, how will Tebow and the Broncos recover?  Well, they have to go to Buffalo, another bad D, but if NE could step up and have a big game, maybe the Bills can too.
• I won't even put this under What The Fuck Was That because the Steelers had no chance in San Francisco, and unfortunately for Jason and me, that became apparent as soon as the game began.  I assumed that with a week of rest, Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger would look a little better on his sprained ankle than he did.  He looked awful.  His throws were off target, his mobility was nonexistent, and he was the picture of ineffectiveness.  His lights were out before he got off the plane, so San Fran's stadium losing power was apropos.  Hell, Charlie Batch may have done better after all.  I still don't think much of San Francisco's offensive game plan, a bunch of dink-and-doink passes to barely move the chains and keep the clock running.  But when your defense is playing a crippled QB, I guess you don't have to do much when you have the ball except don't turn it over.  Pittsburgh should be scared shitless because if this injury to Big Ben lingers, they will be reduced to a low-scoring defensive unit that can't keep up with a high-flying offense, and that only gets you so far in the playoffs.

Week 15 Records--Dre 6-8-2, .429; Jay 4-10-2, .286
YTD Records--Dre 100-115-9, .465; Jay 108-107-9, .502

2011 Week #15

Jason and I were able to be a little holiday festive and jovial while making our picks tonight, because we were able to enjoy a winning pick for the Saturday night game.  Anything to wash away the taste of that horrible Thursday night pick.  On to the rest of the games for Week 15:

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

	Thu. Nite
ATL (8-5)	13½	Jack (4-9)	Atl 41-14		Jack	Jack
	Sat. Nite
Dal (7-6)	7	TB (4-9)	Dal 31-15		Dal	Dal
	Sunday
Cin (7-6)	7	STL (2-11)			Cin	Cin
BUF (5-8)	1	Mia (4-9)			Mia	Mia
NYG (7-6)	6½	Wash (4-9)			NY	Wash
Tenn (7-6)	7	IND (0-13)			Ind	Tenn
CHI (7-6)	3½	Sea (6-7)			Sea	Sea
GB (13-0)	13½	KC (5-8)			GB	GB
HOU (10-3)	6	Car (4-9)			Hou	Hou
NO (10-3)	9	MIN (2-11)			NO	Min
Det (8-5)	1	OAK (7-6)			Oak	Det
ARIZ (6-7)	6½	Cle (4-9)			Ariz	Ariz
PHI (5-8)	3	NYJ (8-5)			NY	NY
NE (10-3)	9	DEN (8-5)			Den	Den
	Sun. Nite
Bal (10-3)	1½	SD (6-7)			SD	Bal
	Mon. Nite
SF (10-3)	3	Pit (10-3)			Pit	Pit

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• We both jump on Cincinnati to rebound from that bad loss vs. Houston last week and whip the St. Louis Rams all over the field.  While I feel some fear knowing that the Rams somehow pulled an upset on Baltimore at home using a replacement QB in A.J. Feeley, I can't predict that outcome against another decent defense using Kellen Clemens.  Feeley may be ineffective, but Clemens is actively trying to give the football to the other team at all times.
• We're both still riding the Dolphins even after their bad loss against the Eagles last week.  Buffalo is just bad.  Jason has made it his mission to pick Miami and go against Buffalo so that the Fish finish ahead of the Bills in the standings, which would have been unheard of after Week 8 when Miami was 0-7 and Buffalo was 5-2.
• Our first disagreement of the week is on the Redskins-Giants game.  Jason has seen enough of the bad Giants defense this season.  He likes Rex Grossman to light it up against them.  Jay doesn't go to the stats often, but he cites that the Giants for all their offensive firepower this year are still -25 in point differential.  Yikes.  But I found a curious thing in those same point differential stats:  Washington is -61!  I know they had the great John Beck at the helm for several of those games, but most of that is on the defense and Grossman.  That 28-14 home beating by Washington against the Giants in Week 1 kicked off a fast start to the season for the Shanahan Boyz and the Skins.  This ain't the same Skins.  Give me the G-Men for some painful revenge.
• And I've gone down this road before and crashed and burned, but I'm going there again--gimme Indy to win!!  Yes, I don't just want the Colts to cover a TD against the Titans, I got them to win the game.  I really think they have to win one this year.  They're not that winless Lions team.  They were a playoff team last year, with a slightly better QB, I give you.  I'm really disappointed in Tennessee refusing to establish the run at home against a terrible New Orleans run D last week.  Did they really think they were going to outgun Drew Brees in a shootout?  I don't like the Titans putting an old, beat-up QB-WR combo out there in Matt Hasselbeck and Nate Washington.  And I can see the Colts outrushing them, too.  Jason thinks it's going to be the Chris Johnson Show on the Indy turf.
• Get your Skittles ready in Chicago, because we like the Seahawks and Marshawn Lynch to go Beast Mode on the hapless Bears.  I'm amazed that Caleb Hanie is favored against anybody the way he's played his first three NFL starts.  The Bears may not win another fucking game this year.  Well, at least Sam Hurd's got the hookup for the good stuff that can make them feel better about things.  Seattle has two straight good games at home with eleven days of rest between them.  Can they build on those successes and take that confidence into Chi-Town to get a win?  Guess what--they did it last year.  We'll gladly take them to do it again.
• Greg Jennings is missing at WR for the Packers as they visit the Chefs in Kansas City.  Whatever will Green Bay do?  How can Aaron Rodgers replace that important weapon?  Oh yeah--nine different players have caught TD passes for the Pack this year.  We think they can manage without Jennings.  Plus, Jason pointed out that Green Bay already saw the KC starting QB, Kyle Orton, in Week 4 when Orton was in Denver.  Green Bay won that game 49-23.  Ouch.  And that was the highly praised Denver D, not the not-so-praised Chiefs D.  We'll take GB squoosh.
• Fresh off of stomping my heart out with his late-game heroics, T.J. Yates leads the Texans onto their home field against the woeful Panthers.  The new AFC South champs are gunning for a first-round bye, so they should keep grinding against Carolina and get the win even though the Panthers probably will outthrow them.  What Arian Foster and Ben Tate do to Carolina on the ground should break Cam Newton's spirit and put some quit into coach Ron Rivera's squad.
• Jason is taking the big home points on this occasion for the Vikings.  Even though they host New Orleans indoors, Jason still likes the prospect of RB Adrian Peterson returning from injury to blast the Saints hard enough to keep the score close.  I'm guessing Peterson's workload will be rather low, being his first game back in several weeks.  And I just can't pick against New Orleans indoors on a fast track.
• I could have gone either way on this one, but Jason will take the Lions to get it done on a road trip at Oakland.  It will be fast, it will be intense, and Matt Williamson from the ESPN Football Today podcast said that it may shatter the world penalty flag record.  Cheap shots all over the place!  Jason calls Raiders QB Carson Palmer "Interception Santa," giving out balls to whomever is around.  (If only they were black balls, then he'd attract a Kardashian.  Hey hey!)  That may be true, but I'll pick Interception Santa because Oakland hopefully is bright enough to have Palmer hand the ball to Michael Bush and stand aside many, many more times than he throws.  Detroit will let you run on them, plus it ramps up the physicality and raises the chance of some hothead Lions, particularly the returning Ndamukong Suh, throwing a punch or blowing his stack and helping the Raiders out.
• My Lock of the Week would be Arizona to throttle Cleveland.  Jason thinks it smells like time for another Patrick Peterson punt return for a TD, but that's just because he's got Peterson in our fantasy league, which uses IDPs.  We both are curious to see QB John Skelton work some more magic with Larry Fitzgerald, tossing him the ball and watching him tear it away from anyone in the vicinity.  And, it's Seneca Wallace in at QB for the Browns, which isn't good for Cleveland fans.
• We're not fans of either the Eagles or the Jets, as has been well documented, although I liked Philadelphia coming into the season.  The way they've gone out like punks has turned me off, but we were faced with picking one or the other this week.  While I studied and agonized and really sweated out this one, Jason was ready with his pick immediately.  "Oh, I'll take the Jets," he said, because he would like to see Philly's flickering playoff candle get snuffed out for good.  I'm also going with Gang Green, although I will root for Philly because I can't stand Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez way more than anyone on the Eagles.  Also, I wonder if Philly will keep choking and losing games in front of the home crowd.  The Jets may only be 2-4 on the road, but the Eagles for some reason are 1-5 at home.
• It's been really hard to avoid the subject of Tim Tebow in sports talk these last few weeks.  The Tebow Thing has grown and grown and grown, and no, I'm not talking about his supposedly virgin penis.  We've had to adjust and admit that picking Tebow in a point-spread environment  isn't a toxic idea, and we've now both gone with the Broncos for two weeks in a row.  But I'm not doubling down my bet as strong as Jason is--see, he's got Tebow and the Broncos to win.  That's right.  New England's defense has nauseated Jason so much that he's taking Tebow to find a way to win the game over Tom Brady and the Patriots.  I was so floored by the declaration that I completely forgot what lame Tebow jokes I was going to bust out in this space.  Oh well.  Guess I'll just declare my opinion that Tebow can keep Denver close, although I'm not taking Denver to go all the way and win.  I wonder, if Bill Belichick puts enough WRs on the field as DBs, can Tebow get easily confused and start throwing the ball towards them, thinking maybe they're his WRs that were just acquired in an in-game trade?  Er, maybe not.
• On Sunday night, I'm shrinking away from Baltimore in fear of those three bad losses earlier this season on the road, and I'm backing Philip Rivers and the Chargers once again.  They seem to be really getting at it during this stretch drive.  Jason's looking forward to the Ravens ending this San Diego shit and eliminating them from playoff contention.
• And on Monday night, we have to go with the Pittsburgh Steelers on a very long road trip.  San Francisco needs to come out of their funk from last game if they're going to knock off the AFC champions, and we don't think they're motivated to do that.  Now, we saw Charlie Batch try to play QB for Pittsburgh when Ben Roethlisberger got twisted, and that would have made us run towards SF if Batch had to start.  But Big Ben appears to be giving it a go, so we'll go with the Steel to beat a Niners team that seems to be throttling it down and saving it for the playoffs, which we all know never works.  We do all know that, don't we?

Sat. Nite Cowboys @ Buccaneers

Jason's text for this one:  "I got Dallas squoosh tonight.  Tampa is a mess."  I tried to talk myself into taking TB to catch up on Jason's monstrous lead, but I have to concur.  The spread is only Dallas -7, and I have to think that even if the Bucs put together some offense on the Cowboys D, the TB defense is so putrid that Tony Romo and Co. would drive right back and score.  And since they only have to win by more than a TD to cover, I'll roll with the Cowboys and hope that they don't outdumb themselves once again.

My Pick: Dallas 38-27

Thu. Nite Jaguars @ Falcons

I get the feeling that money has been flung towards Atlanta hard in the hours leading up to this game.  The spread is way bigger than I anticipated, which is fine because Jason and I were going with the underdog anyway even though Jason announced previously that he was done with road teams on Thursday nights.  The line at the moment is 13½, but we don't trust the Dirty Birds with that big of a number, especially coming off giving up big points to Carolina in the 1st half.  We're anticipating a low-scoring, slow-moving affair.  I'm not sure the Falcons are bright enough to take to the air with Matty Ice and light up the Jags like they should, and Maurice Jones-Drew should keep Jacksonville in the game.  I'm going Jags to nearly spring the upset, and we love the under!

My Pick: Atlanta 17-16

Week 14 ATS Recap: Four Steps Forward, One Step Back

OK, so Dre gets to gloat about the one pick he beat me on this week, and of course it's the one I changed my mind on. I'll take that every week if it means I can pick up three games in the overall picks. Nice job on the Indy win, Dre!

• Steelers 14, Browns (+14) 3 - Both losers - I'm not doing so well with these Thursday night games. The Steelers, yet again, failed to impress against an inferior foe in prime time. I know we knock Baltimore for playing down to their competition, but Pittsburgh has laid recent eggs against the Chiefs and now the Browns.


• Jaguars (+3) 41, Bucs 14 - Both losers - Jacksonville didn't score 41 (37) in their last three games COMBINED. With games left against Dallas, Carolina, and Atlanta, I'll call it now: Tampa wont win a game the rest of the year.


• Patriots 34, Redskins (+9) 27 - Jason winner, Dre loser - So Tom Brady throws a red zone pick that seals this win for me, then promptly tries to throw his receiver on the play under the bus, and his coach calls him out for in in plain view on the sidelines. Good for the New England coordinator for getting on Brady's ass. It was a bad throw into coverage in a spot where all the Pats needed was a field goal. I was watching a lot of picks not going my way toward the end of the early games on Sunday, and little miracles started happening to turn losers into winners. Good job, Brady!


• Texans (+3) 20, Bengals 19 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Speaking of little miracles. Houston needed an 80 yard drive and a last second TD to spring the "upset" on a very game Cicinnati team. It would have been easy for the Texans to fold up the tent after losing their first AND second string QBs, their best offensive playmaker, and thier best pass rusher. Houston has shown amazing tenacity through adversity, something the Colts (who lost ONE player) should be watching.


• Jets (-10½) 37, Chiefs 10 - Both winners - We saw this one coming. The Chiefs made the Jets look like an offensive juggernaut, and then promptly fired their coach.


• Lions 34, Vikings (+9½) 28 - Both winners - If I can see Joe Webb's helmet turning sideways the first time watching the play live, how can the refs not see it? If Detroit somehow manages to back into a playoff spot, I guess I can't be mad since they did get hosed last year at Chicago on the Calvin Johnson completing-the-act-of-the-catch bullshit. It all comes around.


• Saints (-3½) 22, Titans 17 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Jake Locker is offically Captain Almost Comeback. He's good at brining his team back, just to lose anyways.


• Eagles (+3) 26, Dolphins 10 - Both losers - Can you believe this shit? Philadelphia wins one game, to get to FIVE wins, and the media is resurrecting their "the Eagles are still alive" stories. Sure, the Eagles can win out to get to 8 wins and have a mathematical chance to make the playoffs, but this story is so lame it makes me want to watch more Tebow coverage. I just became the biggest Jets fan around, because I'm hoping Gang Green sticks the final, final, final, final, final fork in the stupid ass Eagles.


• Ravens 24, Colts (+16½) 10 - Dre winner, Jason loser - You got me on this one Dre!


• Falcons (-1½) 31, Panthers 23 - Both winners - I was set to pick Carolina all week but something kept nagging me right up until the point I flipped over to Atlanta: Carolina can't close games. Reminded of the first matchup between these two, which saw Carolina leading after three quarters just to give up 17 unanswered 4th quarter points, I decided that Atlanta would play smarter and was simply the better team. Look what happened, Carolina was up 16 at the half, just to give up 24 unanswered 2nd half points. History does repeat itself.


• Broncos 13, Bears (+3½) 10 (OT) - Both losers - The hook killed us here, just as the Bears fell on their own sword late in this one. Marion Barber made two critical mistakes, mistakes big enough to take peoples minds off of: 1) Caleb Hanie AND 2) Marion Barber was one of the reasons the Bears almost won. I figured something out about this Tebow thing too, about how he's able to keep coming back: his opponents have no respect for his game, and even after they are beaten, still can't believe it. Brian Urlacher even tossed a mighty underhanded compliment to Tebow, saying the Bears lost to a great running back. It's the doubt and the "I can't believe this is happening to US!" attitude that just fuels the Tebow mania. Sure, the Broncos are riding an incredible defense and even more incredible amounts of luck, but sometimes you make your own luck. Hell, it got Urlacher to a Super Bowl!


• Cardinals (+3½) 21, Niners 19 - Both losers - The Cards have gone into all out spoiler mode these last couple weeks, knocking off Dallas and now San Fran. The Niners had, and still have, a very slim chance at the #1 seed in the NFC, but by virtue of the loss here, have given up the advantage they held for the #2 seed as well. John Skelton came in for an injured Kevin Kolb (shocking!) and did what he does best: keeping both teams in the game. Looking at times lost AND brilliant, Skelton was a turnover machine until it mattered, and then led 2 late TD drives to slay the mighty 49ers.


• Packers (-Not Enough) 46, Raiders 16 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Did Dre call this an upset in the making? The only upset going around would belong to folks who wagered last week on Oakland to cover a big number. This was a meeting of two things that spelled disaster for the Raiders: a QB that throws a generous amount of interceptions, and a defense that excels at takeaways. Carson Palmer found 11 different pass catchers on the day.....too bad 4 of them were Packers.


• Chargers (-7½) 37, Bills 10 - Both winners - I hereby dub San Diego the "Eagles of the AFC" due to the fact that the media loves to blither on about how the Bolts STILL have a little playoff life left in them. I doubt they will do it, but if the Chargers can run the gauntlet of Baltimore, Detroit, and Oakland without a loss, then they deserve the comeback hype. Too bad they wont do it.


• Giants (+4½) 37, Stupidest Team in Football 34 - Both winners - This game was worth it just to see Jerry Jones blowing a gasket over Jason Garrett's time clock management woes. Then, wouldn't you know it, the Giants ice the Cowboys kicker on a made field goal, and then blocked the next attempt to escape with the win. I sure hope Dan Bailey, the Cowboys kicker, doesn't have any incentives built into his contract about field goal percentages, because the ones you make while being "iced"....those don't count.


• Seahawks (-10) 30, Rams 13 - Both winners - Special thanks to Seattle, for getting me to my first 10 win week this year. I'm gonna celebrate with some Skittles.

2011 Week 14: What I Learned

• I learned not to get too excited about a lucky week, because you always come back to Earth the following week.  Fuck.
• Games in no detail:  Buccaneers-Jaguars (TB breaks out 14-0, then their defense steps up, er, down), Raiders-Packers (wow, I've never been more wrong in my life), Bills-Chargers (Buffalo sinking, San Diego swimming), Giants-Cowboys (2 average defenses vs. 2 above-average offenses, and the smarter QB and coach win), Rams-Seahawks (Skittles for everybody except Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo, who should be fired for letting QB Sam Bradford try to play in that condition).
• The key nugget to take from the Thursday night Steelers win over the Browns is to remember just how Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger injured himself.  He actually rolled to his right on a pass play in order to avoid the pass rush, and then held on to the fucking ball so long that the rush came and sacked him anyway and rolled up on his ankle.  I'm confident that the Steelers would have found another TD and covered had Big Ben been fully healthy, because they were moving the ball better and better as the game went on and because Cleveland is pathetic.  But we all just saw why Pittsburgh won't be winning the title again--because Big Ben has completely given up on trying to find checkdown receivers and is married to the idea of hitting the home run every time, and that will cost his team dearly once again in the playoffs, just as it did in the Super Bowl last year.
• Speaking of hitting the home run, a weird thing happened to New England on their way to scoring another TD and covering the number over Washington--Tom Brady decided to get a kid WR involved instead of throwing the rock to the open man, Wes Welker, and in doing so, he underthrew Tiquan Underwood and got intercepted.  Then Brady got a new asshole ripped by Pats o-coordinator Bill O'Brien, who must have had big cash on the spread the way he reacted.  It was funny watching New England and Washington go up and down the field on each other.  It dawned on me that as much as I talk about the Redskins not being able to cover or tackle, neither can the fucking Patriots!  Their defense stinks, like, really bad.  And yet NE covers, as I predicted, if Brady doesn't decide to get magnanimous and involve other receivers in the scoring.  Just throw the ball to the open man, Goddammit.
• And here's another game where I came within a hair of winning, Houston and Cincinnati.  I said that as much as the Texans impressed me with their resiliency, I would back off on them this week and make 3rd-string rookie QB T.J. Yates prove that he can get it done on the road with no Andre Johnson to throw to.  And the motherfucker did exactly that, winning the game in the final seconds on a slant pass to Kevin Walter after leading a long drive against a tough Bengals defense that focused on shutting down the run game all day and stifled Arian Foster (though Ben Tate had a nice run).  It was actually a great Cincy defensive effort, ruined by that final drive.  I respect Bengals QB Andy Dalton going deep every time to A.J. Green because he knows Green is a freak and can make crazy catches, but that seemed to devolve into desperation heaves after a while, and Cincy still had the lead.  Dalton won't develop into a complete QB until he learns to find other guys to make plays in clutch moments.  As for Yates, the sample size is two games, which is nothing, but fuck, does he look impressive.
• I just wanted to shine a light on the Jets beating the shit out of the Chiefs to point out two things--1, na na, hey hey, goodbye to one of the more unintelligent NFL coaches, KC's Todd Haley, and 2, look at how the Jets have to run their offense to beat inferior teams, with 42 runs vs. 21 passes.  They even had Mark Sanchez call his own number to run in two TDs close to the goal line because they didn't want to risk his dumb ass throwing the ball to the other team.  They do not trust their QB at all.  I actually hope they make the playoffs again so I can laugh at them as they try to make it to the AFC title game for a 3rd time.  That defense ain't nearly as good as it has been, so it's not happening.
• Speaking of dumb, how did the Lions build a huge lead on a Vikings team that had to bench their QB for ineffectiveness (he was supposedly hurt, but really, they sat him because he was bad) and was missing their All-Pro RB?  Because Detroit is dumb and undisciplined, and that's why we picked Minnesota to cover.  And I picked the Vikings to win, and damn if they didn't almost come all the way back behind Joe Webb and do it, too.  They got down to the 1-yard line with time expiring, then the Lions grabbed Webb's facemask as they stripped the ball, but the refs were so tired from throwing flags at Detroit all day that they didn't have the energy to throw another one, and that was the game.  Amazing that Detroit almost coughed up an easy win like that.  I hope they also make the playoffs so I can laugh as they commit 50 penalties and start several brawls on their way to elimination.  Oh, forgot to credit Jason for a line during our chat about this game when we made our picks:  "Suh's acting crazy, crashing cars and being reckless?  Man, the Lions really are representing Detroit!"
• And speaking of losing on the last play when you refuse to throw the ball into the end zone, at least Webb had an excuse.  Jake Locker did the same for Tennessee as he tried to lead a heroic comeback against the Saints, but he has no excuses, he just panicked.  Titans QB Matt Hasselbeck is so old that he strained a calf muscle running three steps after a batted ball, so Locker had to play all of the 2nd half save for one play.  They had a shot to win because New Orleans is definitely off-key on grass as opposed to their home turf, and they had trouble getting untracked in Nashville.  But Drew Brees and Marques Colston made plays when it counted, and the Saints took the lead in the 4th quarter.  Tennessee marched down the field and had a shot with no time on the clock at New Orleans' 6-yard line, but Locker's scramble to find an open man ended with him getting sacked and letting the game end without even a desperation heave into the end zone.  There's nothing more pathetic than having the game in your hands and choking so bad that you swallow the football without even trying to throw it up.  I still think the Titans should just go with Locker the rest of the way to get him the experience that it will take for him not to gag it up next time he has the game in his hands.  And speaking of gagging, the Titans coaching staff rushed Chris Johnson 11 times against a crappy Saints run D?  What?!?
• Miami came out and scored the 1st TD vs. Philadelphia, and everyone thought the rout was on considering how bad the Eagles have been and how good the Dolphins have been.  Michael Vick didn't get the memo, and neither did the Eagles D, which caused two fumbles and a pick in the 2nd quarter to swing all the momentum towards Philly.  They sacked Matt Moore so much that they knocked him out of the game.  Where has this been all year?  And Vick did what he does in his return, which is find DeSean Jackson deep for a TD.  If they could have done that all year, the Eagles would be in much better shape.  I don't even want to see this scenario, but I wonder if there's a way that Philly can win a tiebreaker if they finish 8-8 along with the Giants and Cowboys and pull off a miracle and win the NFC East??  Oh, and Miami was just waiting for a bad loss so they could shitcan their coach.  This nice stretch they were on was probably torture for their front office.  But one bad beating, and it's vaya con dios, Tony Sparano.
• Baltimore smothers Indianapolis with its defense, Ray Rice runs the rock really well, easy victory for the Ravens...except I somehow won the pick.  On a TD pass in garbage time on the last play of the game.  Oh Jason, did you not have Indy picked and changed your mind??  You can lord having the better record and better season over me all day, but I have to bust your balls for this one.  You know it never works when either of us changes a pick!  I'm gonna get Cris Carter and drunk Mike Ditka and Boomer Berman to all go up where you live and stand on your lawn, and they're all gonna scream at you, C'MON MAN!!!
• Holy shit, did Atlanta try to let Carolina walk all over them in Charlotte, and the Panthers defense once again completely disintegrated.  Carolina jumped out to a 23-7 lead before letting the Falcons go for 24 unanswered.  It's not surprising considering the Panthers D all year, but I did want to acknowledge QB Cam Newton's facial and body expressions.  Usually, I hate the pundits who evaluate a player's body language, but I'm not going to try to pretend that I definitely know what's going on with Cam.  I just want to say, he sure looked like he was incredibly disheartened and tired and beaten down by how much he keeps losing despite being mostly fantastic.  It make me wonder if Carolina is a safe play at all these last three contests, because Cam looks about ready to throw in the towel.
• Ho hum, another 4th-quarter comeback by Tim Tebow and the Broncos, except this time, they couldn't cover the spread because they've become betting favorites as this crazy season has advanced.  A little advice to other teams when playing Denver--you may want to stop leaving WRs open in the 4th quarter, because regardless of how bad Tebow's been in that game up to that point, he's going to need to find the WRs in order to lead a comeback.  Minnesota left guys wide open last week, and Chicago did it this week.  I'm mentally tired just watching Denver games, and I'm about done trying to evaluate them.  Tebow is Jesus, and that's the explanation, I guess.  Maybe this opinion by Dan Bernstein, a Chicago sports talk show host, explains everything.
• Is San Francisco going to be able to go very far in the playoffs running such an unimaginative offense?  They couldn't get past the milquetoast Arizona Cardinals, failing to close with a 19-7 lead and the backup QB in the game for the Cards.  But John Skelton rescued the Redbirds once again, flinging 3 TDs and 282 yards and making up for a crap game in San Fran several weeks ago.  Really, Skelton doesn't appear to have much QB skill, but he knows how to throw it deep to his wideouts, especially Larry Fitzgerald.  It was clear that Coach Insane was going to take it easy on star RB Frank Gore now that the division was clinched, and Gore only carried ten times.  But that left the offense in QB Alex Smith's hands for 37 pass attempts while protecting a lead, and the result was, no TDs, only 18 completions, and 175 yards.  Blech.  If that's what happens when Gore is taken out of the game plan, then the Niners are destined to be drummed right out of the playoffs in their 1st game if the opposing run D is any good at all.

Week 14 Records--Dre 7-9, .438; Jay 10-6, .625
YTD Records--Dre 94-107-7, .468; Jay 104-97-7, .517

2011 Week #14

Time to find out if I can duplicate my fortune from last week, or will Jason re-establish his dominance?  Only one way to find out!  On to the picks for Week 14.

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

	Thu. Nite
PIT (9-3)	14	Cle (4-8)	Pit 14-3		Pit	Pit
	Sunday
TB (4-8)	3	JACK (3-9)			TB	TB
NE (9-3)	9	WASH (4-8)			NE	Wash
CIN (7-5)	3	Hou (9-3)			Cin	Hou
NYJ (7-5)	10½	KC (5-7)			NY	NY
DET (7-5)	9½	Min (2-10)			Min	Min
NO (9-3)	3½	TENN (7-5)			Tenn	NO
MIA (4-8)	3	Phi (4-8)			Mia	Mia
BAL (9-3)	16½	Ind (0-12)			Ind	Bal
Atl (7-5)	1½	CAR (4-8)			Atl	Atl
DEN (7-5)	3½	Chi (7-5)			Den	Den
SF (10-2)	3½	ARIZ (5-7)			SF	SF
GB (12-0)	11½	Oak (7-5)			Oak	GB
SD (5-7)	7½	Buf (5-7)		Elvis	SD	SD
	Sun. Nite
DAL (7-5)	4½	NYG (6-6)			NY	NY
	Mon. Nite
SEA (5-7)	10	StL (2-10)			Sea	Sea

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• We only differ on five picks this week, so I still can't make up the season-long deficit I've been in since Week 4.  And we're trying to shake off the rough start to this week from Thursday.  We start in Jacksonville, where one of my FedEx Mail-It-In Teams™ hosts the Buccaneers, who also don't appear to be giving their best effort.  Tampa's D may be bad, but so is Jacksonville's O, so we'll pick the slightly better Bucs to cover, although this smells like a push to me.  Jason wants the only real quarterback in this game, and that would be a hobbled Josh Freeman of TB.
• New England vs. Washington is a mismatch under most circumstances, but we just saw the Pats D almost blow the whole game to the winless Colts, so Jason will pick the Redskins to cover because they certainly have a better offense than Indy.  Rex Grossman can drop back and fling it off one foot with his eyes closed and move the ball better than the Colts and Dan Orlovsky, right?  While I agree on that point, I just think that New England can come back and score at will because Washington still doesn't cover or tackle.  The Pats might be a little embarrassed by letting the Colts so close at the end, and I don't think they will allow the Skins to hang around.
• Cincinnati is hanging on to playoff hopes, so I'm picking them to play desperate and pull out a victory over the impressive Texans, who really showed Jay something last week.  He's all-in on Houston after they ran the ball with ease and D'ed up Atlanta down in Texas.  While I too was impressed, I'm making T.J. Yates do another solid QB job on the road at a decent defense without Andre Johnson.  If he pulls this off, he'll really show me something.
• I was sure that Jason would never lay 10½ and take Total Fraud ever in his lifetime, but he simply observed that the Jets were playing Tyler Palko as justification for picking New York.  I concurred, and we moved on.
• We're both sour on the Detroit Lions, who aren't ready to contend because of maturity issues and injuries.  I say they're ready to fall out of playoff contention, so I'm picking the Vikings to win, and no, I don't believe that Adrian Peterson will come back this week for Minnesota.  I just think the Vikings will play more focused and better disciplined, which isn't hard to do against Jim Schwartz and company.  Both Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley are out, so look for Minny to pound the Lions up the middle all day with whomever is running the ball.  This spread would be my Lock of the Week, not straight up, mind you, just the spread.
• Here's one where we are split in a big way.  I'm taking the Titans to spring the upset on the Saints because New Orleans is coming off two prime-time home games where they got to strut their stuff and show the world how big and bold they are on their turf, and they're ripe for a physical ass-kicking by someone.  And the Titans can be that team because they're playing well, they're in the playoff hunt, and Chris Johnson is running the ball like a maniac.  It's like he's Dan Fielding in that episode of Night Court when he sees a hot military officer who wants him to serve under her, so to speak, and the medical maladies that he was faking to shirk his duties suddenly wear off.  "Wait...I feel better," he deadpans before busting out a mambo.  Johnson has been dancing all over his last couple of opponents, and New Orleans cannot stop the run.  They're allowing 4.9 yards per rush.  This sets up for a monster game for CJ.  Jason likes the Saints squoosh because they're on such a roll that he thinks they will not be stopped just because they're outside.
• My other FedEx Mail-It-In Team™, the Eagles, welcome back Michael Vick this week, just in time to face maybe the hottest team in football outside of Wisconsin, the Miami Dolphins.  We think it will not be a kind welcome back for Vick.  Jason has made this his Lock of the Week.
• I'm taking those big points again, baby!  Indianapolis is giving monster points again, this time 16½ at the Ravens, and I have to take the Colts because when the hell do the Ravens ever beat someone by 17 points?  Sure, Indy can give up big passing plays to Joe Flacco and then get gashed on the ground by Ray Rice, but for Baltimore to cover, all that has to happen, plus the Ravens have to guard against falling asleep and letting Dan Orlovsky come in the back door for a late cover.  I'm betting against all of that going right for Baltimore.  Jason points out that this ain't the Patriots defense that Indy would have to come back against, and while that's very true, it's also not New England's offense building the initial lead, so I feel fairly comfortable taking all those points.  And let it be known that Jason originally picked Indy when he heard the line and spent the next two minutes talking himself out of it and taking the Ravens, so if Indy covers, Jason can really get pissed because he wanted them initially.
• Okay, Falcons, one more chance.  One more opportunity to prove you belong in the discussion for NFC contenders and not be considered a joke.  This Carolina defense is awful and will let you have anything you want--run, pass, whatever.  Just take it.  We're watching you, dirty birds...oh, and Jason was prepared to take Carolina all week until the moment of truth, when he just couldn't do it.  The Panthers don't hold on and beat good teams this year.  They're putting up crazy numbers against everybody, but that D usually gives it all back.  Carolina gets the win over mostly bums, and Atlanta (hopefully) ain't no bum.
• We both give in to the power of our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ!  Oh, how we've forsaken you, Jesus!  We haven't both believed in you together, but this week, you play a Chicago team without its starting QB or RB, and it sets up to be a low-scoring gruntfest, right up your alley!  Yes, we admit that the Bears should provide the toughest defensive test for Jes--I mean, Tim Tebow.  But that's how bad Caleb Hanie is.  We think he'll turn the ball over enough to give the Broncos excellent field position and allow Denver to cover that 3 and a hook.
• San Francisco is still playing to have a 1st-round bye in the playoffs, so they should still be motivated to go smother the Cardinals in Arizona by more than 3½ despite having clinched their division last week.  Let's see how many big runs Beanie Wells can provide for Arizona in this game.  My guess is, not many.
• Jason will go with the Packers to bounce back from the scare in Gotham last week and trounce the Raiders.  I'll take those big points, and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise to me if Oakland snuck out a win.  Oakland is similar to Tampa Bay, who recently came in to Lambeau Field and almost upset Green Bay.  The Raiders will smack you in the fucking mouth with the run game, like Tampa.  But Oakland has a better passer and much better pass defense than Tampa, not that Oakland's pass D will really slow down Aaron Rodgers any.  But the Packers D should allow a Carson Palmer-led comeback, provided Palmer doesn't throw it to the team in green and yellow.
• Jason has declared the Buffalo-San Diego line an Elvis Game on the basis of spotting a trap in the 7½-point spread.  He believes that we're supposed to see all those points and automatically take Buffalo because they used to be good this season, and San Diego stinks, so he's gonna avoid that trap and just take the Chargers, no matter the number.  The Chargers are much better than the Bills, enough to give that many points and believe that it's not enough.
• Jay actually mentally dissected the Sunday night game and struggled with his pick.  Ultimately, he felt that this was a Dallas 3-point win waiting to happen, and he picked the Giants to cover at Dallas because Dallas is the dumbest team in history, as evidenced by last week.  I'm scared that the Cowboys may let last week affect them, so I'm taking New York to win.  How can you go out as a Cowboys player and go hard for that coach anymore?  "Yeah, we were close at the end, but we were afraid our coach would try to ice our own kicker again, so we decided to throw the ball towards the end zone before he had a chance to fuck up the game for us."  Should be high-scoring, should be very fun,and should end in the Giants' favor.
• And Jason begged me to pick the same as him for the Monday night finale just so that he didn't have any reason to watch any second of that game.  "Clean out the litter box" was one of the things Jason thought more worthy than watching St. Louis visit Seattle.  Despite the fact that he was shocked to hear that the Seahawks were favored by 10 over the Rams or anybody, he still took the Seahawks, and that's in connection with my pick, as it turned out.  I think I heard Jason crying tears of joy over not having to pay attention on Monday now.  I don't have any fancy stats here, just that Seattle is mediocre, St. Louis is horrible, and it doesn't matter if the Rams start Sam Bradford at QB or A.J. Feeley or someone named Tom Brandstater.  Just lay the 10 and go do something more fun with your life than watch this game.