2011 Week #4

I'm getting on a bus out of town for my bachelor party, so my picks will have to be sans my witty breakdowns for each game.  I'm sure you're all crushed.

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

CHI (1-2)	6	Car (1-2)			Car
Buf (3-0)	3	CIN (1-2)			Cin
CLE (2-1)	1	Tenn (2-1)			Cle
DAL (2-1)	1½	Det (3-0)			Dal
HOU (2-1)	3½	Pit (2-1)			Pit
NO (2-1)	6½	JACK (1-2)			NO
Min (0-3)	1½	KC (0-3)			Min
PHI (1-2)	9	SF (2-1)			Phi
Wash (2-1)	1½	STL (0-3)			StL
NYG (2-1)	1	ARIZ (1-2)			NY
Atl (1-2)	4½	SEA (1-2)			Atl
GB (3-0)	12½	Den (1-2)			Den
NE (2-1)	4½	OAK (2-1)			Oak
SD (2-1)	7	Mia (0-3)			Mia
	Sun. Nite
BAL (2-1)	3½	NYJ (2-1)			Bal
	Mon. Nite
TB (2-1)	10	Ind (0-3)			Ind

However, I would like to note that I'm taking Carolina to win straight up.  I want credit when that one comes in.

Week 3 ATS Recap: The Comebacks

You can throw my making up all the ground I lost to Dre last week, when I shit the bed with TWO wins, onto the pile of comebacks the NFL has seen this season so far. For some teams, blowing leads has become chronic (Minnesota), while for others (Buffalo) coming back has been par for the course. Of course, Buffalo should be used to coming back, considering they own the largest comeback in playoff history.

Also, what's with all the pushiness this year so far? We've seen more pushes (4) than we saw for ALL of 2010 (3). This season pushes have become like Tom Brady interceptions. You never used to see them, now you see nothing but...

• Panthers 16, Jaguars 10 - Both winners - We didn't factor for the weather, but the skies cleared enough for Cam Newton to toss a late TD to Greg Olsen and send the Panthers to their first win of 2011. It's hard to grade out Blaine Gabbert's first start due to the conditions, so I'll wait to see more before deciding if he's the answer over Luke "It's Not About the Money" McCown. It's not about the money. Really. We mean it. Seriously guys, c'mon.


• Titans 17, Broncos 14 - Both winners - In the wide open AFC South, Tennessee stands at 2-1 having gotten NOTHING from Chris Johnson and that new contract. The former Oilers turned to the other side of the ball in both their wins, leaning on an underrated (or underestimated) defense in what could be a surprising season in Nashville. Matt Hasselbeck looks like the winner so far in the geriatric QB carousel.


• Saints 40, Texans 33 - Jason winner, Dre loser - If Dre could skew these picks on how lucky he thinks my wins are, he'd be up 15 or so games on me already for the season. His Texans, down 33-32, needed only keep the Saints out of the end zone and force a field goal attempt to seal the win for Dre. Instead, they let the Saints ramble right down the field and let my fantasy goat, Mark Ingram, score his first ever NFL touchdown. Houston has nobody to blame but thier porous defense.


• Lions 26, Vikings 23 - PUSH - The Vikings would be 3-0 if games lasted 30 minutes. After a 17 point collapse the week prior against Tampa, the Vikings decided to get up 20 at halftime to up and coming Detroit. This game also marks the second week in a row that Dre and I differed on a game but both agreed on its "pushiness." Both times the game was a push. Both times I took the favorite and he took the dog. Both times a team needed a furious comeback to force the push after defeat stared me in the face. We need to stop agreeing on games looking pushy.


• Giants 29, Eagles 16 - Both winners - I found myself agreeing with Mike Vick. His style of play and his recklessness does cost him when it comes to refs giving him the benefit of the doubt on roughing calls and personal fouls. But what the refs are not in control of are the shitty offensive lines that Vick has had to labor behind in Atlanta and now Philly. The book on Vick is clearly to bust him up, get in his head, or better yet get him the hell out of the game. I'm sure teams would gladly take a 15 yard penalty to see #7 on the sideline for the rest of a game. They'd probably even spot the Eagles a 14 point lead before the opening kickoff if Andy Reid would promise not to use Vick. When you have the most versatile weapon in the league, maybe you should try to protect him better. The refs can only do so much.


• Bills 34, Patriots 31 - Dre winner, Jason loser - When you use the word "pick" and Tom Brady, it's usually used in a sentence like this: Tom Brady picked apart the Buffalo secondary. Which he did. That is, until he started dispensing the bad kind of "pick" like picks were something that came out of a Pez dispenser. Sure, not all the interceptions were Bradys fault. But Buffalo, down 21, seized on every Patriot mistake and when crunch time came, one team looked like the battle tested champs and the other like mistake prone up and comers. Guess which team looked like what? Scoreboard!


• Browns 17, Dolphins 16 - PUSH - If Dre wants to whine about luckiness, he should have been all over it on this game. You don't always have to win to be lucky. The Brownies played like ass for 58 minutes before scoring a late go-ahead TD. Miami then had the ball past midfield and proceeded to run three boneheaded pass attempts and then missed a 4th down conversion. Sometimes, not winning OR losing is winning.


• Niners 13, Bengals 8 - Both losers - We're all losers here, including anyone who watched this shitbag of a game.


• Raiders 34, Jets 24 - Jason winner, Dre loser - In a pass happy league, the Raiders have gone to the ground to pound out victories. It's like Al Davis is saying "fuck you" to all the teams that are copying his sling-it-deep attitude and unleashing the punishing attack of Darren McFadden and Micheal Bush just when the rest of the league least expected it. Not that I think Davis has anything to do with this, I just find this all amusingly ironic. The Raiders are a Buffalo comeback away from 3-0 and looking more solid than "favorite" San Diego. Mark Sanchez threw for 369 yards, and if you ever need to know the result of a Jets game without looking at the score, just look at Sanchez's passing totals. If he threw for 369 yards, the Jets lost. Bad.


• Ravens 37, Rams 7 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Dre lost his shit on this pick. When he uttered the words "fuck you, faggot Ravens" I just knew he was channeling the anger of how bad Baltimore let us all down the week before in the Music City Hangover. I wasn't going to fall into that trap, and the carnage on the field only really lasted a quarter, after which Baltimore was up 21-0. The Ravens were up 27-0 at halftime, and shockingly, won! That's how crazy the NFL is right now.


• Chargers 20, Chiefs 17 - Both losers - There's nobody but myself to blame for this loss. I called all the reasons WHY the Chiefs would cover but didn't have the balls to make the pick. This is what playing it safe after a 2 win week does to you. Hanging my head in disappointment this very moment.


• Bucs 16, Falcons 13 - Both losers - To paraphrase the wordsmith Dre: fuck you, faggot Falcons.


• Packers 27, Bears 17 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Sure, Dre may be a little buttsore from the phantom holding call that wiped out one of the most amazingly deceptive plays I've ever seen, but I have a fundamental problem with that play: why did the Bears roll it out down 10 with very little time left? That's a play you sandbag until you NEED it, like in overtime or down a touchdown or less very late in game. Sure, it would have covered the spread, and that's great for Dre. But for the Bears, they showed their ass just to get the chance to kick an onside kick? You know what that smell is in the air? Desperation. Nothing else smells like it.


• Seahawks 13, Cardinals 10 - Jason winner, Dre loser - My "research" for this game entailed me knowing that Seattle plays good at home. That was it. Even the cheap wins count the same as the well thought out ones.


• Steelers 23, Colts 20 - Both losers - The Colts finally showed up, and almost took out the AFC Champs. Curtis Painter looked almost serviceable in the last few minutes of the game, but after almost three full games of Kerry Collins looking like he wanted to be back at home drinking a beer, anything would have been an upgrade. Painter will get the call this week, but we'll see if it's too little too late for the 0-3 Colts.


• Cowboys 18, Redskins 16 - Both winners - Boys/Skins used to mean something on MNF. That crap on my TV Monday was just....wow, that was bad.

Just like last year, neither of us want to step up and get a lead. After three weeks, we're all square. Would we really have it any other way?

2011 Week 3: What I Learned

• How did Jason catch me in the season standings already?  Well, it's hard to hold a lead when you refuse to win any picks on Sunday after 3 o'clock.
• The day started off fine with an ugly Carolina win over an ugly Jacksonville team.  Sloppy weather, sloppy play, sloppy mess all around.  But we covered, so it was a beautiful sloppy mess.  Not fair to break this one down considering the conditions.  Oh, New Orleans visits the Jags next Sunday.  Lock of the Century.
• And we had success picking Denver to cover a large number at Tennessee.  This game slogged back and forth with neither team showing much offensive prowess, but then Matt Hasselbeck rose from the dead and led the Titans on a drive through the air, resulting in the TD that made the difference in the game.  Despite his best receiver, Kenny Britt, destroying his knee, Hasselbeck went over 300 yards anyway, a surprising performance to say the least.  I'll have to be more careful picking the Titans to get killed this year because, as long as the Hass stays in one piece, he's veteran enough to always keep his team in the game.
• Here's a game where if either me or Jason would have won, the other could call it lucky because both teams had many chances to put the other away.  Houston and New Orleans put on a classic for anyone who bet the over.  Scoring back and forth, neither defense willing to give an inch because they were too busy giving miles.  I learned that no lead is too big for Drew Brees and the Saints to overcome, and I learned that the Texans better get the ball in the end zone early or risk not having a big enough lead.  The reason the Saints could mount a comeback is because Matt Schaub and the Houston offense settled for FGs several times throughout the game when they could have been scoring TDs.
• OK, does someone have a Leslie Frazier voodoo doll that they put to use in the 2nd half of Vikings games?  The Minnesota coach has watched halftime leads vaporize in his first 3 games, not a good way to start a career.  Those are some awesome athletes Minnesota sends out there--Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin, Jared Allen, to name a few--and yet, they can't figure out a way to hold leads.  This week, it was Calvin "Megatron" Johnson and the Detroit Lions finding their way back into the game in the 2nd half.  The best athlete on the field turned out to be Johnson, because every time the Lions needed to move the ball, they threw it to him.  The real killer came in overtime, when Minny blitzed, leaving Megatron covered downfield 1-on-1.  A long catch later, Detroit kicked a FG and left Donovan McNabb wondering why the Vikings weren't lining up to take the kickoff.
• The New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles played an even game until the 4th quarter, when Michael Vick got knocked out of another game and left things up to Mike Kafka once again.  Kafka's now 0-2 trying to win close games for the Eagles after Vick leaves.  On the Giants side, someone else had to step up due to injury, and Victor Cruz did just that.  Eli Manning was missing a couple of receivers, so he had to trust in a banged-up Hakeem Nicks and Cruz, who had made a name for himself as someone who will drop the big pass at the perfect moment for you.  Not this time.  Cruz made tacklers whiff in the open field on one TD catch, and jumped up and outfought defenders on another.  Don't count on Cruz for consistency, but he was the man for one day.
• Jason's text to me after the Bills shocked the world and the Patriots:  "Fucking Buffalo won!"  Hey, nobody circles the wagons...but seriously, folks, the Bills have proven not just this year but last season as well that they cannot be counted out of any game.  They really do fight until the last whistle.  New England jumped on top 21-0 before Buffalo came storming back.  The story seems to be Tom Brady's 4 interceptions allowing the comeback, but of course, if you watch the picks, one or maybe two were his fault.  Two were tipped, and another was fought for and lost by the receiver.  It's just one of those days where everything breaks right for the other team.  New England will shake this off and recover.  And Buffalo may find a new level of confidence and really make life uncomfortable for AFC playoff contenders who didn't count on the Bills being a tough team.
• That's about the worst offensive line play I've ever seen, what Miami did against Cleveland.  The Dolphins couldn't sustain offense because Chad Henne was running for his life all day, and it finally caught up at the end.  The Browns got a miracle TD catch from Mohamed Massaquoi, and the Fish couldn't come back down the field.  I don't know where Miami will get wins from if they can't beat average teams away from Miami.  We already know they can't beat any team in Miami.  Maybe when they let go of head coach Tony Sparano, the new coach, Ozzie Guillen, can lend some insight.
• 1st team to score a TD in Cincinnati won the game Sunday, and that team was San Francisco.  What a shitty game.  Neither offensive line could stop a nosebleed, so Bart Scott would have been happy watching.  Both teams are just bad, and the less said about this one, the better.
• Mark "Total Fraud" Sanchez couldn't find any hot dogs to chew on this time in Oakland, so he had to actually play a whole game.  Not surprisingly, he lost.  Oakland's secondary isn't going to the Hall of Fame, but it's the best secondary Sanchize has played this year, and that's why the Jets lost.  Once the Raiders got their destructive running game going and got back into the game, Sanchez had to throw more than dinky swing passes to the running backs, and once he tried to go downfield, the incompletions started racking up.  He also got picked off and tried to scramble for a TD on their last possession and got stuffed.  The Jets cannot win relying on Sanchez's decision making.  He had a Sanchez Classic TD pass early by throwing a screen to RB LaDainian Tomlinson and letting LT do all the work.  Sanchize finished with 369 yards in the air, but they were mostly empty yards.  As for Oakland's run game, what else can you say?  They faced a Jets team that only gave up 3.6 yards per carry last year, and they used their speed on the outside to run right around them, including a TD on a WR reverse.  The Raiders can compete in any game because they will not deviate from their mission to pound the snot out of anybody on the ground.
• Who the hell is Torrey Smith???  Oh, and I HATE Sam Bradford.
• Yes, San Diego was missing maybe their best receiver in TE Antonio Gates, but my gosh, did they look anemic trying to pass against the Chiefs.  That's scary how impotent they appear without Gates.  They did put together a good rushing attack instead, along with lots of underneath routes thrown by Philip Rivers, but that's not how the Chargers best play on offense.  It almost cost them the game.  Matt Cassel was driving the Chiefs for the game-winning TD when he panicked under pressure and threw underneath right to a Charger.  Well, at least Kansas City competed this week.
• Once again, Atlanta had a chance to send a message that they were a complete team and could handle some road adversity.  Once again, they shit the bed.  Give Tampa Bay credit for a stout defensive effort, and for Josh Freeman utilizing quick slants to advance the ball and set up the Freeman rush TD and three FGs that the Bucs would need to get the win.  But God, when will the Falcons get out of their own heads and beat teams that aren't as good as they are?
• One WR can't beat 5, and that's why the Bears couldn't hang with the Packers.  Chicago at the moment has exactly one guy that seems to know how to play WR in the NFL, and that's Johnny Knox.  Everyone else is running bad routes, short-arming passes, or getting outfought for footballs by the defense.  Jay Cutler had many bad throws for Chicago too, so it was a team effort this time.  Green Bay moved up and down the field with Aaron Rodgers slinging the rock to anyone who wanted it, then hitting his freak TE JerMichael Finley in the end zone three times.  With all that, a horrible ref call stole this pick away from me, as the Bears should've managed to cover the spread despite being outmanned.  Late in the 4th quarter down 10, the Bears received a punt and had all their blockers run to one side of the field to block for the best return man ever, Devin Hester.  Green Bay sprinted in that direction thinking the punt was going there, but it actually went all the way on the other side to Johnny Knox, and he ran uncontested into the end zone.  This would have made the lead 3 and I would have covered the number.  But a ref called the Bears for holding and nullified the return.  Fox showed like 5 replays and never once showed a Bear holding.  Yes, Jason, another lucky pick for you.
• Larry Fitzgerald's awesomeness was smothered by his kicker and his team's d-line.  Seattle's Tarvaris Jackson was able to score a rushing TD to give the Seahawks a lead while Seattle's sickly team rushing attack managed 122 yards on the ground, and Arizona's 2 missed FGs from Jay Feely proved costly at the end.  There's just no accounting for Seattle Magic at their home stadium, known now as CenturyLink Field or something like that.  They just keep finding ways to get it done.
• Pittsburgh looked like they were having a good ol' time spanking the hapless Indianapolis Colts by 10 in the 1st quarter.  Troy Polamalu was flying around making plays, Ben Roethlisberger was throwing the ball around, and all seemed right with the world.  Then Ben started holding the ball too fucking long, as he's wont to do, and a couple of strips and a pick later, the Colts had a lead.  It was an off night for the Steelers D as a unit, as they allowed plays to the Colts to keep drives alive, including giving up a rush TD to tie the game at 20.  The sack-fumble by James Harrison that Polamalu took in for the score should have closed it out for Pittsburgh, but they let Curtis Painter drive the Colts for the tying score.  Pittsburgh could have easily lost this game despite clearly being the better team.  Give Indy credit for hanging in, but also devalue Pittsburgh for seemingly letting up.
• The Monday Night version of Cowboys & Indians was a sloppy game, but not because of the weather.  Dallas and Washington went back and forth making plays to get close to the goal line, then getting knocked backwards by the defense and having to settle for FGs.  Dallas could really be 0-3.  Dez Bryant couldn't go at WR for the Cowboys last week, so Miles Austin had to fly around and catch TDs to keep Dallas alive in San Francisco.  Against Washington, Austin was unavailable, and Jesse Holley couldn't recreate his magic from last game, so it was up to a banged-up Bryant to make plays for Tony Romo, and he did.  If Bryant wasn't out there, the Cowboys may not have had any big plays outside of a couple of runs by Felix Jones.  Rex Grossman had chances to put the Boys away, but Bad Rex showed up in key situations, throwing a bad pick and losing a fumble.  But hey, this is what Mike Shanahan wanted.  You anoint Rex as your quarterback, you'll win some games you should lose, and lose some games you should win.  As for Dallas, that o-line will get Romo hurt again, and that will be the demise of the Cowboys, much like last year.

Week 3 Records--Dre 5-9-2, .357; Jay 9-5-2, .643
YTD Records--Dre & Jay 18-26-4, .409

2011 Week #3

I'm out to prove that my 8-6 record from Week 2 was no fluke.  Jason's out to prove that his 2-12 mark will not prevent him from rallying and catching me.  We're both out to improve on our 3-11-1 record thus far this season on games we agree.  Ick.  On to this week's picks:

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

CAR (0-2)	3½	Jack (1-1)			Car	Car
TENN (1-1)	6½	Den (1-1)			Den	Den
NO (1-1)	4	Hou (2-0)			Hou	NO
Det (2-0)	3	MIN (0-2)			Min	Det
PHI (1-1)	9	NYG (1-1)			NY	NY
NE (2-0)	7	BUF (2-0)			Buf	NE
CLE (1-1)	1	Mia (0-2)			Mia	Cle
CIN (1-1)	1½	SF (1-1)			Cin	Cin
NYJ (2-0)	3	OAK (1-1)			NY	Oak
Bal (1-1)	4	STL (0-2)			StL	Bal
SD (1-1)	14½	KC (0-2)			SD	SD
TB (1-1)	1	Atl (1-1)			Atl	Atl
GB (2-0)	4	CHI (1-1)			Chi	GB
Ariz (1-1)	3½	SEA (0-2)			Ariz	Sea
	Sun. Nite
Pit (1-1)	10½	IND (0-2)			Pit	Pit
	Mon. Nite
DAL (1-1)	5½	Wash (2-0)			Wash	Wash

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• It's the start of the Blaine Gabbert Era in Jacksonville!  Aren't you excited?  Remember, David Garrard being cut wasn't about the money, according to head coach Jack Del Rio.  It was about giving Luke McCown the opportunity that he earned by being the better option.  And McCown's time period to prove his worth after being named the better option?  Two whole games!!  Yeah, Jacksonville's a fucking mess.  Jason's not impressed with Gabbert's highlight package from the preseason and practices, which seem to show that his best throw is the bubble screen.  Another rookie QB, Cam Newton, will have something to show Gabbert and the horrible Jags secondary on Sunday.  And it won't be just bubble screens.
• Uh oh, this is two in a row that we agree on.  We'll either pull our mark up to .500 quickly, or totally torpedo it.  Tennessee doesn't feel like they've earned the right to be a near TD favorite over anybody, so we have to go with the Broncos to cover, even though they're going through a horrific injury bug already.  Whatever the Denver fan base makes of Kyle Orton's arm, it's not bad enough to prevent him from keeping Denver in a game against Matt Hasselbeck and the corpse of Chris Johnson.
• Ah, we'll disagree on the highly watchable Houston-New Orleans tilt.  The Saints got the offense clicking last week, and Jason can't see the Texans defense shutting NO down.  But they don't have to.  They just have to stay within a field goal, and I think Matt Schaub and company can do that, even with Arian Foster hobbling around.  Ben Tate has provided more than adequate play at RB for the Texans to compete with just about anybody.
• We both agree that Matthew "China Doll" Stafford is about due to get his head caved in, kinda like Michael Vick last week.  But Minnesota has been less than impressive in blowing two leads in two weeks, so Jason will take the Lions to continue their march through the NFL in the Metrodome.  I have to go with Minny because I can't imagine they would keep using their premier weapon, Adrian Peterson, and keep finding a way to waste him and lose games.  Plus, we know that I still don't believe that the Lions are legit.  Get a road win in the division for the first time since the American Revolution, and I'll be closer to believing.
• The New York Giants are in trouble on offense, as Eli Manning keeps losing weapons.  Domenik Hixon was lost for the year last week, and Mario Manningham will miss this week's battle in Philadelphia.  Michael Vick apparently won't miss it despite being knocked loopy last week in Atlanta.  Jason wonders if New York will punt to DeSean Jackson this time around.  I doubt it.  We'll both take the Giants and those big nine points.  Jason thinks Vick may be prime to get knocked out again by that nasty Giant pass rush.  In addition, I think the Giants should be able to prevent a blowout by relying on their run attack against a less-than-impressive Philly linebacking group.
• The most entertaining game of Week 3 may be Tom Brady taking that fireworks show from New England on the road to Buffalo, which has scored more points than any other team through the first two weeks.  Jason actually blurted out a score prediction of 51-3 when I first brought this game up!  He was being hyperbolic, but despite the Bills playing at a high level, he's taking the Pats and giving the TD.  Buffalo hasn't played anyone, he says, and while it's true that Oakland on a cross-country trip and Kansas City don't represent the strongest of tests, they have passed with a flourish.  I can't take them to win, but I will take them to be driving for a late score attempting to win and falling just short.  New England won't be able to stop the running game, especially missing DT Albert Haynesworth, and maybe Brady will fail to top 500 yards since he'll be missing one of his athletic tight ends, Aaron Hernandez.
• Miami is playing so bad according to Jason that he's going to take Colt McCoy and the Cleveland Browns to beat them.  I'll take Miami simply because these are the only games they can win--road games against mediocre teams.  The Dolphins just refuse to win at home, but since they're in Ohio, I think they'll pull one out.
• We'll both take Cincinnati to get it done over Coach Insane and the San Francisco 49ers.  Yes, I anointed Mike Singletary Coach Psycho last year, and now I've deemed Jim Harbaugh Coach Insane.  Who passes up an opportunity to shave time off the clock and drive for a backbreaking TD while in the lead?  Coach Insane last week, that's who.  Oh, and Bengals WR Jerome Simpson getting busted for having marijuana delivered to his front door and RB Cedric Benson being notified that he will be suspended soon for his offseason activities?  You think those events will cause a distraction for Cincy?  Come on, man!  That's just another day in Bengal Land!  Chris Henry would call it a boring day, if he were still around.
• The term "total fraud" came up when Jason and I discussed the so-far successful 3rd season for Mark Sanchez.  He still looks like a deer in headlights at times, and the hype keeps coming while his New York Jets keep winning.  I've heard it described so many times by media members as "Mark Sanchez has won four road playoff games," as if his stellar play was the reason and not his stellar defense.  Well, get ready for more of it this week, because I'm picking the Jets to go to the Black Hole and win again to go to 3-0.  Oakland clearly has decided to put their offense in motion with the running attack primarily, but this is one of the teams in the league that can potentially stuff Darren McFadden and Michael Bush.  And it's yet another not-so-good secondary for Sanchez to find holes and get the ball to his guys.  Jason will gleefully be a Raider fan for this one week only.
• We also disagree on Baltimore coming to St. Louis and trying to wash away the bitter taste of last week's loss to the Titans.  Jason thinks that it will be Ravens squoosh.  "You don't wanna be St. Louis right now," he said, shuddering at the thought of what an angry Ravens team may do to the Rams after being embarrassed in Nashville.  I'll pick the Rams to cover because, well, I had a feeling Baltimore may play flat last week after such an emotional Week 1 win against the hated Steelers.  But I didn't have the balls to take Tennessee.  So, fuck you, faggot Ravens.  I'll gleefully be a Ram fan for this one week only.
• Who can possibly build a case to pick Kansas City right now?  Anyone?  Jason did suggest that we may want to be cautious because it's still September, and the Chargers still don't like playing well this early in the season.  Then, Jason looked up what the Chiefs have done in their last four games, including Week 17 and the playoff game last season.  They've been outscored in those games 150-27!  Gotta take San Diego squoosh.  And with no Antonio Gates or Malcom Floyd, maybe the Bolts will focus more on their running game and less on airing it out, which is exactly what they should do in a game where the opponent is hapless and reeling.  Establish the run and pound the snot out of KC.
• One more time, we will go with the Atlanta Falcons to do what they're capable of doing and beat lesser competition.  Coming off that impressive comeback win over the Eagles, the Falcons travel to Tampa to play that atrocious Buccaneers defense.  We'll take the Dirty Birds to leave some droppings on the pirate logo.
• Packers-Bears, arguably the best rivalry in the NFL, sees the Pack come in to Soldier Field as champions and the Bears with their heads spinning after that bad loss in New Orleans.  This is just the kind of game the Bears win.  No one thinks they have a chance due to their most recent performance, but somehow coach Lovie Smith finds a way to rally the troops, tweak the game plan, and put forth a much better effort.  Can't argue with Jason's assertion that the Green Bay defense will go for the kill against Jay Cutler, what with the Chicago offensive line handing out sacks like bags of Halloween candy.  But how can the Bears and offensive coordinator Mike Martz stay stubbornly with the long QB dropbacks after seeing Cutler get hammered last week?  They adjusted last year, and they should adjust this year, too.  The Bears found a way to beat Green Bay at home last year, and they could do it again.  But I'll take them to at least cover the spread.
• The hook scares me, but the Seahawks scare me more.  So I'll give three and a hook and take Arizona to cover at Seattle.  Jason will take the Seahawks in their home opener.  Seattle's home field advantage is undeniable.  But so is the fact that they really, really stink.
• Speaking of really stinks, how about the Colts?  They've got five prime time games to trudge through this season without their star attraction, Peyton Manning.  Here's the first one, and it's against the Pittsburgh Steelers, still steaming mad from their Week 1 embarrassment.  Where's former Indianapolis coach Jim Mora when you need him?  He doesn't care who they play, the Colts are diddly poo, and there's no way they're making the playoffs?!?!  Don't talk about playoffs!  You kiddin' me??  Steel squoosh.  Lock of the week.
• Monday night, Tony Romo and his punctured lung take on Rex Grossman and the high-flying Redskins.  I know Romo's lung is healed, but his defense isn't.  Rex came in to Dallas and lit them up last year, and he's playing better now than he was then.  And don't forget the last time Dallas played Washington in prime time.  The skins escaped with a win after Romo threw the tying TD that was erased by a holding penalty.  With star WR Miles Austin absent, and RB Felix Jones and Romo hurting, this one won't be that close.  We both love Washington to go to 3-0 and make Mike Shanahan look like a genius for another week.  But we know that a Washington meltdown is inevitable so long as they look to Rex to keep up his top-notch play.

2011 Week 2: What I Learned

• I learned that Jason can't have a successful week unless he talks to me trying to make me upset with his picks.  It feels good to be needed.
• It didn't take long for Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints to adjust to what the Chicago Bears were doing.  Brees only had to get knocked around a couple of times before the Saints and coach Sean Payton started calling plays to get the ball out much quicker.  Eventually, they brought the Bears D tighter and closer to the line of scrimmage because the quick hitters were working, and that allowed Brees to get the ball over the top and beat the horrendous safeties deep.  The Bears offense responded by letting Jay Cutler get his head caved in on almost every 2nd-half pass play.  Improved o-line, my fat black ass.
• Carolina's 13-0 lead on the Packers was gained solely due to the great play of Cam Newton.  It was also lost thanks to Cam Newton.  The kid has been impressive, I can't take that away, but he clearly is firing the ball at his deepest option on almost every play and daring the opposing defense to adjust.  That's great his first 1½ games out of the box, but look at what happened when Green Bay did adjust.  They made his deep throws really bad options, and he went for them anyway, and the INTs started piling up.  That allowed the Pack to come back and win the game, although they couldn't cover ten points.  Cam's got balls and he's fun to watch, but any defensive coordinator can shift coverage to take away deep threats.  Then we'll see how hot he is.
• Well-played game by Donovan McNabb and the Vikings.  Well, until the end.  Tampa Bay should never have had the opportunity to come back and win that game, but when you start getting cute with your offense and take the ball out of Adrian Peterson's hands, you give the other team a shot, and the Bucs took advantage and stole a win.
• I still ain't calling the Detroit Lions legit.  They beat a bad TB defense and rolled a mentally handicapped Chiefs team missing their best player, RB Jamaal Charles, who destroyed his knee while running out of bounds.  Two wins is two wins, but I still need to see more.
• The Colts had a shot at their first post-Peyton win, but their biggest detriment the last seven years reared its ugly head again--the porous run defense.  Peyton Hillis, the other Peyton, was the reason Cleveland was able to come back to beat Indianapolis.  Without a big bruising back, the Browns may not have been able to get back in the game.
• Seattle tried to cripple Big Ben Roethlisberger, diving at his knees and almost blowing out his ligaments.  It was still no contest for a pissed Steelers team facing a outgunned Seahawks organization.  But I'm very curious to see if Seattle will once again post some surprising home wins even though the team appears to be as bad as any in the NFL.  I don't know how they did it last year, but we'll see if they can do it again this year.
• One has to think that Baltimore did indeed leave their best game on the field last week at home against the hated Steelers, because that most certainly wasn't their best game at Tennessee.  When you let Matt Hasselbeck and Kenny Britt light up the back end of your defense like an arsonist in a forest, there's something very wrong.  The Ravens struggled last year to rush passers consistently, and this is why they're a notch below the best teams when they can't get to the QB.
• Somebody get Dustin Keller a lifetime Jets contract, stat!  The New York TE make Mark Sanchez look awesome in their pounding of the Jaguars.  Someone else also made Sanchize look great--the Jacksonville QB, Luke McCown, whose 4 INTs led to the Jags anointing Blaine Gabbert the starting QB for Week 3.  You know, if you were gonna wait for McCown's first bad game before giving the gig to Gabby, wouldn't you want to make it not so obvious by giving Luke the benefit of the doubt considering he was playing the Jets D?  Or does coach Jack Del Rio think the Jags would have been competitive had Blaine started Sunday instead of Luke?
• Buffalo gave us our first push of the year, as I nailed, but boy, did they try like hell to lose that game.  Big runs by Oakland helped build a big lead for the Raiders, and that was predictable because the Bills had the worst run defense last season.  What should have been equally obvious is the Bills erasing that big lead with big runs of their own, because the Raiders had the 4th-worst run defense last season.  Buffalo QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is getting a lot of love for the comeback, but it doesn't happen without Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller combining for 177 rushing yards.
• Kevin Kolb could have led a Cardinals comeback over Rex Grossman and the Washington Redskins if not for a fumble to end the game.  Kolb and Grossman went back and forth before Rexy was able to lead a drive that resulted in the game-winning FG.  But Kolb had one more drive left in him.  Unfortunately, he threw a pass to former Jets buster Chansi Stuckey, who was promptly stripped of the ball.  Both QBs can hang in there in a shootout, but I find myself rooting for Grossman because he isn't trying to be someone he's not out there.  He's gonna throw off one foot into traffic with his eyes closed, and that's that.  If it works, great, if not, there's always next time.  I kinda admire that.
• Of the many reasons the Cowboys-Niners game was compelling, one of them is that there were downfield weapons emerging for both teams that no one had ever heard of.  I can't name any of the guys Alex Smith was throwing to for San Francisco, and the big overtime play for Dallas was made by Jesse Holley, and the only reason to know him is that he was the street guy Michael Irvin brought to the Cowboys camp after Holley won a reality show for the opportunity.  That's how you can become an NFL star now?  Really?  I'd better start working out!  No one can take away Tony Romo's achievement, leading a wild comeback after having a rib broken and a lung punctured, but SF rookie coach Jim Harbaugh's blunder allowed it to happen.  In the 4th quarter, leading by seven, the 49ers nailed a 55-yard FG, but someone on the 'Boys jumped on someone's back trying to block the kick, which is a 15-yard penalty.  Instead of taking the points off the board and keeping the drive alive, Harbaugh opted to keep the points, which gives Romo and the offense that much more time to mount a comeback.  Even if continuing the drive doesn't result in a TD, you have a shorter FG try, and you've run some clock.  Harbaugh proved that he didn't expect to be playing with leads very often, or else, he would have thought his decision through much more carefully.
• Two surgeons took the field in Massachusetts, but Dr. Tom Brady was able to shine brighter than Dr. Philip Rivers in leading the Patriots to a 2-TD win over the Chargers.  They were basically even after the first quarter, but Rivers started turning the ball over, and that's how New England was able to get a lead and keep it.  Brady is in another world right now.
• My week of picking miracle small-spread covers by the underdog while picking the favorite straight-up continued with Denver surviving against Cincinnati.  The Broncos offense continued clicking under Kyle Orton, despite the Tebow chants, but the Bengals continue to look surprisingly good, too.  Andy Dalton has a strong arm, and if he can keep developing chemistry with receivers A.J. Green and Jerome Simpson, they could become a dangerous unit.
• Miami's offense with Chad Henne may work better than we all thought as well.  They need a better defense to keep them in games, and they need a better kicker.  Dan Carpenter shanked a 34-yard FG attempt and had a 22-yarder blocked.  No offense works when the kicker blows.  But the pass defense for the Dolphins has got to be feeling like they're under attack.  The Patriots one week, the Texans the next.  They get to go to Cleveland in Week 3, and that has to feel like a vacation.
• Michael Vick and the Philadelphia Eagles stayed within themselves on Sunday night.  They didn't try to do too much in Vick's return to Atlanta, they played under control (save for some questionable gadget play calls from Andy Reid), and they put up 31 points using only the 2nd and 3rd quarters.  They somehow still lost.  Philly was better than Atlanta for most of the game, but the weapon at QB who could have led the Eagles on another scoring drive in the 4th quarter when momentum was shifting towards the Falcons was knocked out of the game with a concussion.  Vince Young wasn't even available as a backup, so someone named Mike Kafka had to come in, and despite some good throws, he couldn't keep the Eagles above water.  Yes, credit Atlanta for hanging in there and mounting a comeback, and credit TE Tony Gonzalez for finding the fountain of youth.  But this should serve as a warning to the Eagles:  When Vick gets back, protect him, or wave goodbye to any hopes of a successful season.
• The Rams outplayed the Giants for most of Monday night, but I managed to win and cover this game somehow.  This one was all about giving up the huge plays.  New York found a way to hit home runs on offense and defense.  St. Louis went for 367 yards of total offense but couldn't find the big plays.  There was a muffed punt, and a backwards pass picked up by the defense and ran in for a TD, and a juggling TD catch...all plays made by the Giants in the 1st half.  You can't win games bending over and giving up the booty in big moments like that.  But the Rams should still win the NFC West.  None of those other teams would be able to even outplay the Giants, much less beat them.

Week 2 Records--Dre 8-6-2, .571; Jay 2-12-2, .143
YTD Records--Dre 13-17-2, .433; Jay 9-21-2, .300

Week 2 Reactions: Reasons For Pessimism

I'm skipping my ATS recap this week in favor of sharing some of my pessimism with the rest of you. After suffering through one of my worst weeks EVAH, it's clear that I don't know shit about the current state of the NFL when it comes to picking games ATS, so recapping futility is, well, futile. So here is a reason for every team in the NFL to be pessimistic about their chances to have a good season:

• Redskins - Bad Rex Grossman is bound to show up any minute.


• Cowboys - Romo's injury woes continue.


• Eagles - Your starting quarterback excels at two things: amazing playmaking ability and getting hurt. Your backup QB excels at the exact same two things.


• Giants - Brutal schedule and the injuries are a worry.


• Packers - Giving up 400 yards passing to Drew Brees is one thing, to Cam Newton....?


• Lions - Season rides on the health of White Mike Vick.


• Bears - Jay Cutler sees more sacks than a gay porn star. Fans clamoring for Caleb Hanie may get what they wish for, and deserve.


• Vikings - McNabb shows up to play but the defense blows a 17 point lead. In that division, you're fucked.


• Saints - Nice rebound against the Bears, secondary and running game need a LOT of work.


• Falcons - The KTFO strategy against Vick (Knocked the Fuck Out) worked, but for three quarters, you were staring 0-2 in the face. Offense looks great on paper, but slow and plodding on the field.


• Bucs - Defense, defense, defense. You don't get to play Donovan McNabb every week.


• Panthers - Cam Newton will show off brilliance and look completely lost at times almost every week. Gonna be a crazy ride.


• Niners - You lost to a guy with a broken rib AND a collapsed lung. AT HOME.


• Cardinals - Should be 0-2, offense is moving forward, defense stinks.


• Seahawks - Still the same two words: Tavaris. Jackson.


• Rams - Another team with a simply brutal schedule. Might be the best 5-11 team ever.


• Patriots - Keep 12 upright, and you'll be fine. Hard to have pessimism about that offense.


• Bills - 2-0 is nice, about to be 2-1.


• Jets - You should make the playoffs and then watch Mark Sanchez hold you back from the promised land again.


• Dolphins - Remember when people thought you had a good defense, like two weeks ago?


• Ravens - Playing to the level of your competition means you'll be playing a lot of road games come playoff time. Nobody to blame but yourselves.


• Steelers - You'll crush the weak and struggle against the strong, not a recipe for long term success.


• Browns - The only time I can see the Browns going to the Super Bowl is when I take a shit.


• Bengals - The future is bright. Technically 2042 is the future.


• Texans - It's one thing to be the media pick to FINALLY burst onto the scene. It's another to live it. Step up, Houstons.


• Titans - Enjoy that sneaky win against Baltimore. You still stink.


• Jaguars - Luke McCown gives you the best chance to win. It's not about money.


• Colts - Looks like the Andrew Luck sweepstakes really is on. Too bad there's another midwestern team that's throwing in the towel even worse than you are.


• Raiders - Enjoy being the hardest team to read all season long.


• Chargers - Despite the league trying to legislate special teams out of the game, you still have to play them.


• Broncos - The Chicago Syndrome will plague you all season, where the fan base spends more time pining for the backup (or third-string) QB.


• Chiefs - Lost your best defensive and offensive player in back to back games. My suspicion is that Jamaal Charles tore his ACL on purpose not the be on this shitbag of a team. Minus 79 point differential in two weeks AND playing a first place schedule? This team has historically bad written all over it.

My one reason for optimism: only being 4 games down after getting debacled this week. Thanks for letting me share my shitty week with all of you.

2011 Week #2

5-11 left me feeling real salty all week.  I'm ready to turn it around and put up a much better Week 2, although a few games are certainly coin flips for me.  But I love seven games as total crushers.  Here are our picks.

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

NO (0-1)	6½	Chi (1-0)			Chi	Chi
GB (1-0)	10	CAR (0-1)			GB	GB
MIN (0-1)	3	TB (0-1)			TB	Min
DET (1-0)	9	KC (0-1)			KC	Det
Cle (1-0)	2	IND (0-1)			Ind	Ind
PIT (0-1)	14	Sea (0-1)			Pit	Pit
Bal (1-0)	6	TENN (0-1)			Bal	Bal
NYJ (1-0)	9	Jack (1-0)			NY	Jack
BUF (0-1)	3	Oak (1-0)			Oak	Buf
WASH (1-0)	3½	Ariz (1-0)			Ariz	Wash
Dal (0-1)	3	SF (1-0)			SF	SF
NE (1-0)	7	SD (1-0)			NE	SD
DEN (0-1)	3½	Cin (1-0)			Cin	Den
Hou (1-0)	3	MIA (0-1)			Hou	Mia
	Sun. Nite
Phi (1-0)	2½	ATL (0-1)			Phi	Phi
	Mon. Nite
NYG (0-1)	6½	StL (0-1)			NY	StL

Jason's thoughts and observations are available in his earlier post.  Here are mine.

• I can't take the Bears to beat the Saints straight up, but I had the feeling all week that this would be a back-and-forth affair with New Orleans surviving.  That spread is just too big against this Bears defense the way they're playing.  Even with ten days to prepare, I can't take Drew Brees and the Saints by a full TD.
• Jason is right on when he says that this defense Cam Newton and the Panthers will see is a class upgrade from his first NFL game.  The Packers ain't the Cardinals.  Pack squoosh.
• Here's my first coin flip of the week.  Minnesota did nothing in San Diego to be worthy of being favored at home, while Tampa Bay did nothing against Detroit to be worthy of only being a 3-point underdog.  I'll split the difference and take the Bucs to cover.  I'd like to take Donovan McNabb and the Vikings to rebound and torch that rancid Bucs D, but I'm not yet convinced that McNabb still has what it takes to torch anybody.
• Detroit has to roll Kansas City this week if they're legit, and since they're not, I'll take those points and pick the Chiefs to stay in the game.
• Which crap team wins?  Browns or Colts?  I'll have to go with Indy and side with Jason.  If Kerry Collins has a shred of dignity, he throws 70 times this week and does whatever it takes to lead the Colts to victory over the less-than-impressive Brownies.
• Pittsburgh a 2-TD favorite after what Baltimore did to them?  That's insane!  It's Steeler bias, thinking Pitt can ignore their aging defense and just act like nothing happ...oh wait, they're playing Seattle.  Yeah, it's not enough.  Steel squoosh.  Lock of the week.
• Ravens-Titans should be a mismatch.  Baltimore is in trouble only if they were extra fired up for Pittsburgh and left their best game on the field last week.  I'll take the Ravens to be more professional than that and go into Nashville out to prove that Week 1 was no outlandish occurrence.
• Mark Sanchez draws his second bad secondary in as many weeks, and for the second time, I'll pick him to perform well and cover the number.  Jacksonville may have stopped Matt Hasselbeck and the Titans last week, but I wouldn't bet on that defense to step up again.
• I can also imagine Buffalo beating Oakland by a FG and providing our first push of the year, but what I can't imagine is a Bills blowout.  I can see Oakland possibly ekeing out a win with another punishing run attack, so I gotta take the 3 points and ignore the West Coast-East Coast flight plan and pick the Silver & Black.
• And speaking of going from West to East, Arizona goes to the nation's capital to find out which Rex will show up.  I can see Rex and the Skins taking advantage of the same D that allowed Cam Newton to throw for more yards in his debut than any other QB evah.  I can also see Kevin Kolb, Larry Fitzgerald and the Redbirds keeping pace in a high-scoring contest.  Again, it's close, but I gotta take the underdog and the points.
• San Francisco doesn't have the aerial weapons to take advantage of the Cowboys and their beat-up secondary.  I'll still predict that Tony Romo finds a way to fuck up the end of the game and lose.
• I'm going to take the Patriots to squoosh the Chargers, even though San Diego is my Super Bowl pick.  I think the Bolts like starting the season slow.  It's the one thing they're good at, that and letting in special teams TDs.  I think New England will put a whooping on San Diego, because Tom Brady appears to be in that zone right now, and it will serve as a Charger wake-up call and propel them to better play and a great season.  They may even wind up back in Foxboro in January.
• Cincinnati vs. Denver was such a coin flip that I've changed my straight-up pick.  I initially had the Bengals to come in and win due to Denver's short week and injuries, but I'm going to root hard for a last-minute comeback drive for Kyle Orton and a Broncos victory, just to shut the retards up who want Tim Tebow to play.  But I still will pick Cincy to cover.
• I feel a Texans squoosh at Miami because it's another big passing offense at the Dolphins, and New England screwed them so bad Monday night that Miami felt the need to cut the nickel back.  Maybe Andre Johnson or Jacoby Jones embarrasses them so bad that they fire the secondary coach on the field.
• Eagles-Falcons on Sunday night is the must-see game.  How many black folks will come out in Hotlanta to support Mike Vick, the dogfighting ringleader?  How many of them will have dog collars to show their support?  But seriously, this should be a tremendous game.  I think the Falcons let all of us know where they are in their development as an elite team last week when they got bumrushed by the Bears.  I'll go with Philadelphia to send the Dirty Birds to 0-2.  The lead that Vick and LeSean McCoy build with their legs, Matt Ryan will try to erase with his arm, and that's what the ballhawks in the Eagles secondary want him to do.
• Only one Monday night game this week.  It's that always exciting Rams-Giants rivalry.  I'll take Giants squoosh.  The G-Men have to be angry after letting Washington beat them in a division game, and young Sam Bradford and the Rams will provide a fresh sacrifice.  New York can light up the St. Louis cornerbacks if they can protect Eli Manning from the Rams pass rush.

One Half of the Week 2 ATS Picks

Maybe I found a new strategy. Just pick one game so crazy it sends Dre into a fit of rage and he forgets that the results of ALL the games count the same! I'm on to something here. So here are my Week 2 picks, in much less detail.

• Bears (+6½) at Saints. My pick: Bears. I was ready to make my first contingency pick of the year based on the availability of one Brian Urlacher after the death of his mother. Now that he's back with the team and going to play, I sense Urlacher and the Bears will play way over their heads and beat the unfortunate Saints.


• Packers (-10) at Panthers. My pick: Packers squoosh. This line was a gift from Moses. On their way to being +16 or 17 at home this week, Cam Newton decided to light up the Arizona secondary and almost win his first NFL start. This week, Dom Capers defense rolls into town with the Super Bowl champs. There will be no such luck for Cam this week.


• Bucs (+3) at Vikings. My pick: Vikings. There is no way that McNabb can play any worse (is there?) than he did last week. Here come the Bucs, reeling from a home loss to Detroit. The NFC North may prove to be much tougher than the South this year.


• Chiefs (+9) at Lions. My pick: Lions. White Mike Vick will stay upright enough to torture a KC secondary missing it's best player in Eric Berry.


• Browns (-2) at Colts. My pick: Colts. I HATED the Browns as a big home favorite last week and I hate them even more as a road FAVORITE this week, even if it is the Colts.


• Seahawks (+14) at Steelers. My pick: Steelers. Three words now famous in IMLD lore: It's not enough. As in points. Woe to be the team walking in to Heinz Field this week after the prison rape the Ravens unleashed on the AFC Champs last week.


• Ravens (-6) at Titans. My pick: Ravens. Just keep on rolling Baltimore. This might be a letdown trap, but c'mon, it's the Titans.


• Jaguars (+9) at Jets. My pick: Jaguars. You gotta score 9 to cover 9. I'm looking at you, Mark Sanchez.


• Raiders (+3) at Buffalo. My pick: Bills. This was the hardest game of the week for me to pick. I took the Bills at home because this game feels very "pushy" to me. My confidence on this one is low, as I wouldn't be surprised to see Oakland rack up another road win with their punishing rushing game.


• Cardinals (+3½) at Redskins. My pick: Redskins squoosh. Enjoy another week of Good Rex, Washington. It wont last for long.


• Cowboys (-3) at Niners. My pick:49ers. Remember when this used to be a marquee matchup? Man I feel old right now.


• Chargers (+7) at Patriots: My pick: Chargers. This feels like a 34-31 game to me, and since thats a three point margin, I gotta take the Bolts, even though I think they lose a close one.


• Bengals (+3½) at Broncos. My pick: Kyle Orton. Bronco fans are starting to remind me of idiot Bear fans, where you can't roll through a loss or two with your starting QB before you start whining for the backup, or in this case, the THIRD FUCKING STRINGER. Jesus couldn't beat out Brady "Now I'm Done" Quinn for the backup job, and the rabid Bronco fans are showing their true idiocy here. I look for Orton to light it up this week, crush the Bungles, and STILL GET BOOED!


• Texans (-3) at Dolphins. My pick: Dolphins. Texans as a road favorite against a team thats gotta be pretty sore from the butt whoopin Tom Brady heaped upon them. Gimme the Dolphins to buck up at home and give the Houstons all they can handle this week. Underrated game of the week right here.


• Eagles (-2½) at Falcons. My pick: Eagles. Unless the Falcons discovered the secret of open field tackling in one week, I'm looking for Vick to destroy them in his return to his old home. The only thing that could stop Philly is its porous O-line, which could happen at any minute. This Eagles season feels like a ticking time bomb.


• Rams (+6) at Giants. My pick: Rams. Both teams are banged up pretty bad, so I look for a high scoring, mistake riddled, awful Monday night matchup. It'll stay close, but I see the G-Men coming out ahead by a late, slim margin.

Opening Weekend ATS Recap: The Hangover

After dual 12-4's to start the 2010 season, Dre and I both knew that 2011 was bound to get off to a rocky start. After losing on Opening Night on Thursday and a wretched performance in the early games on Sunday, I expected a 3 or 4 win (or 5 - sorry Dre) week to be the result of my batshit insane picking. Something funny happened on the way to those 3 or 4 (or 5) wins, my late picks, and who cares if they were by luck - they were wins (HELLOOO!!!), started coming home.

• Packers 42, Saints 34 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Just to prove how slim the margin can between winning and losing, this game is the best example. The Saints, outplayed and playing from behind the whole game, had only a yard to go with time expired to trim the Packer lead to 2, and send the game to OT with a conversion. Mark Ingram was stuffed (rather the Saints putrid short yardage blocking) a foot from the end zone, and Dre sweated out a season opening win. The Packers played their typical game: get up big early, and then cruise control the rest of the game while allowing their opponent too many chances to get back into the game. The Saints battled hard, but they need to work on their short yardage execution if they expect to get deep into the playoffs. Good news for the Saints: they're still in first place in the NFC South.



• Eagles 31, Rams 13 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Well, Micheal Vick didn't get hurt - yet. Not that the Eagles O-line didn't try to get him hurt! Vick was hit 11 times in the contest, and at that rate, he won't last long. For while he's upright, Philly fans will enjoy their Tecmo Bowl offense. The Rams sustained too many injuries, and never really recovered from the loss of Steven Jackson.



• Bills 41, Chiefs 7 - Both losers - Nothing like calling the trap and then falling face first into it. In a week of crazy blowouts, this one was the biggest, and I gotta say: to me it was the most shocking. I'm interested to see how both these teams go forward from here.



• Bears 30, Falcons 12 - Both losers - The Falcons showed me something all right: they can't tackle for shit. On paper, both teams moved the ball well, but turnovers killed the Falcons, including a play where Matt Ryan channeled his inner Micheal Vick and literally laid the ball on the turf for the Bears to pick up. My gut tells me that this is the ultimate Week One Overreaction Game. I don't think Atlanta is THAT bad, and I don't think Chicago is THAT good. Good news for the Falcons: they're still in first place in the NFC South.



• Lions 27, Bucs 20 - Both losers - So much for Tampa exacting a little revenge for that silly loss to Detroit last year. With Stafford healthy, the Lions look dangerous. So basically, he's the white Mike Vick. Good news for the Bucs: they're still in first place in the NFC South.



• Jaguars 16, Titans 14 - Both losers - It's week one, and who gives a shit about either one of these teams? We pick all the games, all I can say.



• Bengals 27, Browns 17 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Finally, a head-to-head win. Somebody on the Browns must have been watching old Bears game film, as the Brownies decided to bring out the old Cover-Zero defense and put NOBODY on A.J. Green. Green could have scored with two broken legs he was so wide open, and the Bungles never looked back.



• Ravens 35, Steelers 7 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Looking at the Week 1 schedule, this was the one game, if given an ultimatum, that I HAD to see. I had a suspicion that the Ravens would be game for the AFC Champs, and boy were they. The Steelers, with their newfound crazy addiction to their passing game, were harrassed and frustrated for 60 minutes, resulting in seven turnovers. Not ones to let off the gas, the Ravens knew they had the Steelers on the ropes and just kept pummeling. The biggest "oh shit they didn't" moment came when the Ravens had just scored off ANOTHER Pittsburgh turnover to go up 27-7. On the extra point, the blockers opened up a hole so big that the holder on the play could have crawled in. It was unmerciful piling on, and maybe the Ravens awoke a sleeping giant, but it looked more like euthanasia to me.



• Texans 34, Colts 7 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Well, if you're gonna lose, lose BIG. Not the Colts, I meant me. I was hoping the Colts would drink their Miller Lite and "Man Up" for this game, but I guess they chose That Other Light Beer. Those commercials are ridiculously retarded by the way: how is drinking LIGHT FUCKING BEER manly? Now where's my Heineken Light?



• Redskins 28, Giants 14 - Both losers - Enjoy your season of Good Rex/Bad Rex Washington.



• Chargers 24, Vikings 17 - Both losers - The millisecond Percy Harvin lurched forward with the opening kickoff, you knew he was going to score, right? The Chargers held Donovan McNabb to 39 (THIRTY-NINE) passing yards and Adrian Peterson to under 100 yards and still didn't cover the number. In fact, they needed to mount a second half comeback. Way to sum up this one: I sent Dre a text mocking those Chargers special teams, his one word response....."Disgusting."



• Cardinals 28, Panthers 21 - Jason winner, Dre loser - I gleefully gave those 6½ points, even commenting that I LOVED the hook on that game. Sure, it's better to be lucky than good. Rays of hope for Panther fans literally shot out of Cam Newton's ass. Maybe we were wrong about that whole Vince Young/Tebow as God/Jesus thing, or is Newton maybe Moses or something? Let's wait and see. Good news for the Panthers also: they're still in first place in the NFC South.



• Niners 33, Seahawks 17 - Both winners - I don't want to dwell on this game too much, but in a week of some rancid special teams play, none was worse than the one minute stretch the Seahawks cover team lived through. They gave up a kickoff return and a punt return to Ted Ginn, Jr. in that stretch, and delivered Dre and myself a cheap ATS win. Thanks, guys!



• Jets 27, Cowboys 24 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Hopefully, Mark Sanchez is sending Tono Romo some lovely parting gifts after Romo became the first QB to cough up a 14 point lead in the 4th quarter in Cowboy HISTORY. Romo fell apart like only Tony Romo (and maybe Brett Favre) could, and overshadowed some really putrid 4th quarter quarterbacking from Sanchez, who overthrew quick hitches and proved that he can't deliver out routes with the worst of them. My opinion of both teams remains unchanged, the Cowboys will be more competitive this year (could they be LESS?) and the Jets won't ever win a title with Mark Sanchez at the helm.



• Patriots 38, Dolphins 24 - Both winners - Tom Brady threw for 478 more yards than Donovan McNabb, and Ron Jaworski dropped a "shit" on the air one play before Brady hit Wes Welker on a 99 yard touchdown strike. I felt bad for Jaws, who sheepishly apologized later in the game for his slip of the tongue. But damn, Jaws, if you're gonna swear, pick a better moment to do it. And a better game. Shit, man.



• Raiders 23, Broncos 20 - Jason winner, Dre loser - In between all the flags and the fights, which I lost count of, the Raiders continued thier divisional dominance, pounding the Broncos with a punishing running attack like I'd hoped they would. The Raiders really discovered something late last season, namely that Darren McFadden is a beast and riding on his back is a good formula for success. If the Raiders can clean up some of the extra-cirricular crap (is there a bigger IF in sports?), then they may have a chance to be a decent sleeper this year.

Week one is in the books, I managed to survive with a 7-9 while Dre played the part of the Pittsburgh Steelers this week and parlayed his Super Bowl loss into a hangover of a start at 5-11. Week two is always the great equalizer with ATS picks, as we apply what we "learned" from week one to week 2, which notoriously always blows up in our faces.

My wife wanted me to mention her in the post this week, so hi wife! Love you.

2011 Week 1: What I Learned

• I wish I knew which teams would come out of the gate ready to roll and which ones were #asleepattheweheel, as I described it on Twitter.
• Both the Packers and the Saints came out of the gate, or at least their offenses did.  Not much to break down here.  New Orleans has a stacked offense.  Green Bay has a stacked offense.  Advantage Green Bay, this time.
• Here you go, Falcons, your big showing to prove to the world that you're ready to ascend to the next level this season...and cue the Price Is Right FAIL music.  The Atlanta secondary just was not ready for the Mike Martz Offense.  The D-line pressured Jay Cutler and smacked him around a bit, but once he got just a little bit of time, he slung the pill to his receivers, who were actually where they were supposed to be.  And that little bit of protection will prove successful for the Bears most of the time, because the defense is awesome as always.  Chicago as a collective is just about as good as I can remember a unit at forcing turnovers.  They're the foundation.  The O-line is the big question.
• Jason gets to crow about having the better record than me this week.  But I get to crow about how dead wrong he was about the Colts vs. Texans matchup and how on the money I was.  This was no contest.  I don't know quite how good Houston is, but I feel even more confident about Indianapolis going nowhere trying to run a retired graybeard QB out there to replace Peyton Manning.  Put the Colts on ice for this year.
• Elvis lives!  The trap game of the week was AFC West champs Kansas City hosting the 4-12 Bills, and damn it, the Bills looked like the division champs out there.  Buffalo TE Scott Chandler announced his candidacy for league MVP, and before you know it, the Chiefs folded and gave up.  That's two home games in a row they've done that, counting the playoff game last year against Baltimore.  Kids, that ain't a good trend.
• Hmmm, maybe all ain't forgiven for Chris Johnson.  The Tennessee RB was AWOL for most of the Titans-Jags tilt, finishing with a grand total of 24 yards rushing.  This game provided the funniest moment of Week 1 for me.  Jaguars QB Luke McCown, obviously feeling proud of himself for not completely stinking, scrambled for a 1st down midway through the 3rd quarter and got up pointing demonstrably towards the Titans, signalling his triumphant 1st-down run.  One problem:  It wasn't a 1st-down run, and on the next play, McCown fumbled the ball away.  So how did the Jags manage to win?  Tennessee can't tackle, and Matt Hasselbeck can't move.  The Titans had many plays stopped for less yards than they wound up gaining, but couldn't wrap up and complete the tackle.  And new Titans QB Hasselbeck ended many drives all by himself by not being able to move out of the pocket and avoid the rush and create a play for his team.  Tennessee is in deep doo-doo if Johnson doesn't regain his form quickly.
• The Browns and the Bengals--two teams that aren't very good but went toe-to-toe for four quarters Sunday, until Cincinnati caught Cleveland's D sleeping and scored the go-ahead TD on a quick snap.  I'm not sure if Cincy was the better team, but they sure made the key play when it was needed.  We'll see if the Brownies can rebound, but they didn't look like a team you want to bet on very much in the near future.
• I said that the Rams weren't necessarily way out of their league as they got ready to play the Eagles.  I got the pick right, but I was wrong about the Rams being ready to match up with Philly.  St. Louis was completely outclassed.  The Eagles are fucking scary, man.  Look one way and you miss Michael Vick pulling out his video-game act and scrambling for big gains.  Look another way and you miss LeSean McCoy cutting and sprinting and making himself a dangerous weapon.  DeSean Jackson, Asante Samuel, Nnamdi Asomugha...Philadelphia is must-see TV, and next Sunday night, they may set some kind of ratings record when they travel to Atlanta for Michael Vick's first game there since his canine problems.  Whoa, doggy.
• Indeed, as Jason said, the Baltimore Ravens rose up like Michael and Scottie and the early '90s Chicago Bulls and put the Pittsburgh Steelers into a basket support.  A couple of things the Steelers will remember from this ass-kicking:  The Ravens trying out a fake extra point already up 27-7 and scoring two, and the crackback block someone threw Hines Ward when the game was out of control.  It's about time someone wiped out Ward when he wasn't looking, since that's his specialty, but Pittsburgh will remember it.  I think the main point to take from this game is that Green Bay showed the world how to beat the most physical defense in the NFL during the Super Bowl, which is to keep throwing at the secondary, and if everyone else can pull it off, the Steel Curtain may be ready to close.
• Week 15 last year:  Tampa Bay allows 433 yards of total offense to the Detroit Lions at home in a big loss that ultimately helped sink their playoff chances.  This past Sunday:  Tampa Bay allows 431 yards of total offense to the Detroit Lions at home in a big loss that opens their 2011 campaign in a very smelly fashion.  Goddamn, that Bucs defense stinks!  Matthew Stafford cramped up after every single throw he made, and he still went for 300 yards in the air.  I don't want to hear one more fucking thing about the Buccaneers being the pick to step into the playoffs after missing out last year until they show some improvement on the defensive side of the ball.  And no, one Aqib Talib pick-6 isn't good enough.
• How did the Chargers not cover giving nine points against Minnesota with the Vikings QB throwing for 39 yards?  Easy.  They gave up yet another special teams TD, right off the bat on the opening kickoff to Percy Harvin.  Take that one miscue away, and they wind up covering the number.  No change for San Diego's prognosis--fix the fucking special teams and have much better success.  As for Donovan McNabb, I've got three possible explanations for that pathetic performance.  1, he was facing last year's #1 defense.  2, he's short on weapons in his receiving corps.  3, he blows.  I can't decide which has more weight after one game.  I have a feeling we will all see what's real and what isn't after several more games.
• Rex Grossman will get each and every one of his receivers killed before the season is over with his high throws into traffic.  But the New York Giants let him get away with it this time, and the Washington Redskins opened up with a big win.  Same old Rex--high risk throws with big payoffs if they work.  He's consistent, I'll give him that.  The Giants were the best team on the field for three quarters.  It wasn't good enough, and therefore, they didn't deserve the win.
• Speaking of having the best team on the field and still losing, Carolina outplayed Arizona for most of their shootout.  I was tickled by the Cardinals using a stand-up defense at the line of scrimmage, trying to confuse the rookie QB Cam Newton, and watching Newton throw over the top to wide-open receivers.  Who's confused?  Not Cam, apparently.  And yet the Panthers couldn't finish the job because their new coach Ron Rivera couldn't stop sending jailbreak blitzes, and ultimately Larry Fitzgerald and Early Doucet burned the Carolina secondary and built confidence for Cards QB Kevin Kolb.  Arizona's rookie CB Patrick Peterson was exposed all day in coverage, but he came through with the punt return that won the game and gave Jason a cheap half-point cover.  Better to be lucky than good.
• 428 yards of total offense.  That's not one team in the Seattle-San Francisco showdown.  That's both combined.  Anyone who watched this game wanted to pour bleach into their eyes, I'm sure.  And thanks to Ted Ginn Jr. on special teams, we earned a cover.  Of the eight games Jason and I agreed on, this was one of the two that we won.  We'll quietly take it and just move on from there.
• In a scintillating battle of Which QB Will Fuck Up Worse?, Mark Sanchez and the Jets held on to beat Tony Romo and the Cowboys.  Yes, Dallas covered, but on that last INT thrown by Romo to Darrelle Revis, he only had one guy to beat and he would have ran down the sideline into the end zone.  So I consider this a lucky win for Jason as well.  Romo gave the game away, plain and simple, and it was only one shove to Revis out of bounds that saved the game from being a 7-point win for New York instead of a 3-point win.  But the game was entertaining for those of us who like watching overhyped players crash and burn before our very eyes.  Sanchez was having a decent game, too, before he started making mental errors.  But Romo retained his crown as king of all fuck-ups.  Well done, Tony.  Jessica Simpson is laughing somewhere.
• And congrats to the Miami Dolphins as well!  A new offensive coordinator put together some well-designed plays for Chad Henne and his crew, and they marched up and down the field.  They should be very proud of their aggressive passing game and newfound confidence...um, wait a sec...New England just scored again...
• And in the Monday night finale, here's one where Jason totally deserved the win.  It would have been a shame if Denver came back and beat Oakland, because the Raiders owned the Broncos.  They dominated at the line of scrimmage, and they showed that even with Hue Jackson as coach, they can continue to run the ball down your throat.  And to the fans chanting for Tim Tebow even though Denver QB Kyle Orton threw for 304 yards, I can only say this:  Did you SEE Tebow trying to play quarterback in the preseason?!?!?

Week 1 Records--Dre 5-11, .313; Jay 7-9, .438

2011 Week #1

It's time for the first week of real football!  And Jason and I are ready to duel right off the bat.  We disagree on seven picks, not counting my Thursday night win.  Now, on to the picks:

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

		Thu. Nite
GB	4	NO	GB 42-34		GB	NO
		Sunday
Atl	1	CHI			Atl	Atl
HOU	9	Ind			Hou	Ind
KC	5½	Buf			KC	KC
JACK	1	Tenn			Tenn	Tenn
CLE	6½	Cin			Cle	Cin
Phi	4	STL			Phi	StL
BAL	1	Pit			Pit	Bal
TB	1	Det			TB	TB
SD	9	Min			SD	SD
NYG	2½	WASH			NY	NY
ARIZ	6½	Car			Car	Ariz
SF	5½	Sea			SF	SF
		Sun. Nite
NYJ	5½	Dal			NY	Dal
		Mon. Nite
NE	6½	MIA			NE	NE
DEN	3	Oak			Den	Oak

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• One thing we both agree on is that if the Falcons would like to announce their presence this season with authority, it would be nice to walk into Soldier Field and hand the Bears an opening day loss.  I see a physical battle with neither team able to do much rushing, leaving it up to Matty Ice and the Atlanta air attack against Jay Cutler and his much inferior receiving corps.  Will Ray Edwards and John Abraham rack up multiple sacks in their first game together?  It shouldn't surprise anyone if it happens.
• And now, on to our most heated debate of the week.  For some strange reason, Jason likes Indy to not just cover nine points at Houston...he like them TO WIN!  He rambled on about the TV as motivation and how everyone was screaming that the Colts have no chance this week or this season without Peyton Manning and how if the Colts have any pride, they will crush the Texans, and how could the media hand the AFC South title to Houston before a game is played, and give Manning the MVP if he doesn't play and Indy does fall off to four or five wins, and blah blah blah...look, this is the Lock of the Week.  It's Houston's highly ranked offensive attack against a QB who was retired before the Colts called him on his old rotary phone and asked him to ride his Rascal scooter into Indiana and save them from the spectre of Curtis Painter.  It's Kerry Collins!  I understand the Colts should be fired up, I understand the Texans haven't earned any respect yet, but my God, it's Kerry Fucking Collins!  His beard is weird!  His stache is trash!  His stubble's in trouble!  He was chillin' in the exact same rocking chair as Randy Johnson, and now he's supposed to get up and take the Colts into Texas and lead them to a win, as if not having Peyton Manning ain't that big of a deal?  Jason is all set to give me a ring the moment this one goes final if somehow Indianapolis is on top.  I'm guaranteeing, I won't be getting that phone call.
• On to our first Elvis Game of the year, the Bills getting 5½ against that sad Kansas City outfit.  I explained the concept of the Elvis Game last year, but for those new readers (lol), here it is again.  This is a game that appears to be such an easy pick by me and Jason that in deference to our overconfidence, we declare that it must be a trap game, that Vegas must know something we don't to make such a seemingly lopsided line.  Jason then refers to an Elvis song called "Suspicious Minds" which contains the lyric, "We're caught in a trap."  Thus, the Elvis Game.  I think this one is a trap because as sad as Kansas City is, they're equipped with maybe the most dynamic rushing attack in the league, and they're facing last year's worst rush defense.  So even if Matt Cassel can't establish a connection with Dwayne Bowe, the Chefs should steamroll the Bills on the ground and win by a couple of TDs.  Right?  Right??
• Speaking of sad outfits, Jason has a scientific term to refer to what the Jacksonville Jaguars are:  "Out Of Their Fucking Minds."  Cutting their starting QB, David Garrard, the week before the season starts, and then declaring that it wasn't about the money, even though they saved $9M by doing so and installed a much inferior QB in Luke McCown?  It could only be about the money, and anyone with a brain knows this.  So I'll have to concur with Jason, the Jags are indeed Out Of Their Fucking Minds.  What the move also did was put all of the focus on RB Maurice Jones-Drew, who is the only weapon on offense until McCown proves himself able to do anything with the passing game.  Jones-Drew should get smothered every single game because defenses don't have to respect anyone else.  Jason declares the Jags Cincy Done, as in they're totally hopeless for this season.  Andrew Luck Sweepstakes, perhaps?  Oh, as for this game, welcome back, Chris Johnson.  All is forgiven.
• Jason had to swallow his pride and take the Bungles to cover the number this week, however.  He's stunned at the concept of the Cleveland Browns giving 6½ to anyone.  I'm also surprised, but because they're playing Cincinnati, and because a 7-0 final is possible and would cover the spread, I'm forced to go with the Brownies.  Guess I love the under.
• The media Upset Special this week is taking the Rams at home against the Dream Team; Jason has the Rams straight up, too. But just like when people jumped on any opponent of the Miami Heat last year to pull off the upset, I don't see a whole lot of rational thinking in the pick but rather a lot of emotion and hoping that the favorite gets smacked in the mouth.  That's certainly not to say that the Eagles are infallible or that the Rams are way, way out of their league.  But what I see when looking at this matchup is St. Louis in their first game with a new offensive coordinator, an aggressive defensive line that will try to get after Michael Vick and probably wind up running right past him several times, and an early-season Vick, unhurt, healthy, fresh and ready to rumble.  I'll be right there to call the Philly collapse when they start to show signs of decline.  But not on the very first day.
• Can anyone possibly predict a score for Steelers-Ravens other than 13-10?  Doesn't it seem like every one of their games ends in that very score?  What a physically punishing way to start your season for both teams.  They can't be happy having to do battle against each other right out of the box.  Jason is going with his Super Bowl pick, the Ravens.  I'll wait until Joe Flacco establishes that he knows what to do with his new speed receiver, Lee Evans, before declaring the Baltimore offense new and improved.  Jason has declared the Ravens as ready to "Scottie" the Steelers, as in when the Chicago Bulls finally stood up to their oppressors, the Detroit Pistons, who had been pummeling the Bulls for years in the late 1980s by doing such things as running Scottie Pippen's head into the stanchion underneath the basket.  When the Bulls were ready, they stepped on Detroit's head and ascended into the heavens.  I don't think Ben Roethlisberger is quite ready to have his head stepped on yet.
• Despite not believing in the Buccaneers being ready to step into a playoff run, I'll go with Jason this week and take them over the ultra-hyped Detroit Lions.  Tampa should be pumped to exact some revenge on Detroit for coming into Florida last year and running up over 400 yards of offense in beating the Bucs and killing their playoff dream.  Besides, Jason thinks it's about time for Lions QB Matthew Stafford to become the first player to injure himself tripping over the TV network's imaginary first-down yellow line.  Hell, the China Doll has hurt himself in almost every other way.
• OK, San Diego.  The league has attempted to legislate out of the game the only area where you failed last season, the special teams return.  Time for you to make your move.  Stay classy, San Diego.  You get to host Donovan McNabb and a bad Minnesota passing game.  Contain Adrian Peterson, and you should come out of it just fine.  Good luck, and Godspeed.
• McNabb's old boss, Mike Shanahan, opens his 2nd season in Washington hosting the New York Giants, and we hate Shanny so much that we're going with the Giants despite them losing half the roster to injury before the damn season begins.  I'll point out once again how absurd the Shanahan Boys harping on McNabb and the passing game was.  Take the four most important phases of the game--running, stopping the run, passing, stopping the pass.  What do you think the Redskins were best at last year?  Yep, that horrible, horrible passing game.  They were in the top 10 when McNabb was first benched, and they finished the season 8th.  They were 30th rushing, 26th stopping the run, and 31st stopping the pass.  Yep, it was all McNabb's fault.  And Obama.  Good luck, Rex Grossman.  You're gonna need it.
• No reason why I'm taking the Panthers to stay within 6½ of Arizona.  Carolina sends a rookie QB and head coach in their debuts on the road, and that seems like one has to go with the favorite in that scenario, as Jason is doing.  Cam Newton may throw for less yards than DeAngelo Williams runs, but I'll still take Carolina to cover.  I'm that unimpressed with the Cardinals.
• And speaking of unimpressed, when thinking of the Seattle Seahawks, think of two words:  Tarvaris.  Jackson.  We'll take the 49ers.  Squoosh.
• In the Sunday night special, it's maybe the two most hated teams in the league, although the Eagles have to fit in there somewhere.  It's a Cowboys and the Jets, led by two loudmouth brothers who (ok, Bart Scott, say it now) can't wait to tell you how good their respective no-championships-since-who-knows-when teams are.  Jason will take Dallas to cover that number now that Tony Romo's back in the saddle and Mark Sanchez is still at the helm for the Jets.  I'll actually pick Rex Ryan to have his troops better prepared than Rob.  Dallas hasn't been very successful in prime time lately.  Neither have the Jets, actually, but they're at home, the D will be amped up for the heralded Dallas aerial show, and some key players for Dallas are already dinged up, such as the starting right tackle and Miles Austin, the stud WR.  It feels like a big win in store for Gang Green.
• Monday night action gets started with the Patriots coming off that stinging defeat at the hands of the Jets in the playoffs visiting a Dolphins team that managed one home win last year.  Not sure how that happened, but most of the same players are still there in Miami, including the much-maligned coach Tony Sparano and QB Chad Henne.  Yuck.  The running games should cancel each other out, leaving the outcome up to Henne vs. Tom Brady.  And that's why we both have New England, squoosh.
• The late Monday game should be real fun.  It's an AFC West rivalry game, and those are usually quite nasty.  No one likes the Raiders, but the Broncos seem to have some extra spice when they play.  The known entities in this one are the Denver pass offense and the Oakland run offense.  The variable is the Denver defense, because they were ungodly bad last year but are under new management with some key additions.  Jason thinks the Broncos D will tear like a wimpy garbage bag against the Raiders mauling rushing attack.  I'll hope that the Hefty bag will be a more apt description for the Broncs and pick Denver.  Like Kansas City in the Monday nightcap last year, I think an already great fan base will be extra crazy in the late-night atmosphere and create a frenzied scene for their home team to feed off.