Super Duper Bowl XLVI

For the second year in a row, it's not just a Super Bowl.  It's going to decide the season picks title between Jason and me, so it's a Super Duper Bowl!  I'm pumped up for the game, unlike my partner.  Priorities make you feel differently about things, so the only guess I can take as to why Jason has the blahs for this matchup is, he does have a little one due at the end of this month.  Makes a football game seem a little less important.  But make no mistake, we'll be watching when the ball is kicked off.  Now, we know that I have to pick the opposite of Jason no matter what, so I was prepared to make a case for either team based on who I had to take.  But, even before I knew Jason's pick for sure, I put money on one of the teams, which guarantees that they will lose, of course.  But the point is, I have a definitive opinion on this game, and I was afraid of Jason taking my team and making me split my rooting interests.  He didn't.

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

NE (15-3)

3

NYG (12-7)

NE

NY

New York Giants vs. New England

I didn't go all-out with my bet, only $20 with my aunt's husband.  But I had a chance to deny his offer, if only I would agree with him that the Giants are the pick.  But I didn't agree.  I will not pretend that I am in love with the Patriots winning this Super Bowl, but in these two weeks, I have talked myself into liking them.  My main reason is that, in the face of "experts" claiming that Tom Brady and Bill Belichick aren't interested in revenge for Super Bowl XLII, I have decided that these two ultra-competitive personalities are indeed interested in revenge for a perfect season and immortality ruined.  I really don't think it's much of a stretch to imagine Tom and Bill sipping brews every day after practice these last two weeks and sharing the pain of what happened the last time they were on the verge of a Super Bowl championship.  Add to that a host of other factors that one can read which way one chooses.  I think that Commissioner Roger Goodell's dream of NFL football today is coming true in this Super Bowl, and that helps NE.  In Goodell's world, defense is a minor distraction punishable by personal fouls if you should happen to hit the QB hard enough that his head snaps back, even if you don't come anywhere near his head.  Who would be surprised if the Giants get to Brady early in the game and knock him to the Lucas Oil Stadium turf, only to watch a yellow cloth fly into the air for no apparent reason?  But in an attempt to not even let Terrific Tom get touched, I think that the Pats have revamped their offense since Super Bowl XLII specifically because of what happened in that game.  Remember, that offense set records, destroyed teams, took it to the house at will--but it was predicated on Randy Moss getting downfield and doing what he did best, which is make plays on the ball no matter how far it was thrown.  But in waiting for his routes to develop, Brady got mauled by the G-Men up front, and that kept New England from putting up an insurmountable lead.  Then Eli-to-Tyree happened, and Plaxico happened, and the lead was, er, surmounted.  The longest route the Patriots have these days is, Brady to Gronk 15 yards downfield, and watch Gronk shove people aside and stomp into the end zone.  They broke out a long bomb to Chad Johnson in Denver because, well, it's Denver.  They broke out a long bomb to Deion Branch in the playoffs because, again, it's Denver.  And Brady didn't fare well throwing the long ball versus Baltimore.  So I feel that New York was the team that made New England develop an unparalleled short passing attack, and here they are, in Brady's biggest rival's city, against Brady's biggest rival's little brother, with another chance to knock off the team that ended his perfect season on the biggest stage.  And I have to go with Brady in this circumstance.  I think it will be close because in no way does the New England defense make me believe that they can stop Eli Manning and the Giants from answering the Pats at every turn.  And I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if it ended in a 3-point final, which would fuck me.  But I told Jason two weeks ago, when Patriots-Giants first became known, that I guarantee that New England would be a 5 to 7-point fav.  And if I believe that NE should be at least 5 points better than NYG, then I should go with that original instinct and pick NE by at least 5 points.  Here are my factors in favor of New England:

1. NOT the same team as the squad that got busted in the fucking mouth by the Giants four years ago
2. ESPN correspondent Greg Cosell pointed out on the Football Today podcast that TE chips could be huge--if Gronkowski and Hernandez can slow down the Giants edge rushers on their way to their routes, that will give Brady more time than he had four years ago
3. EVERYONE's picking the Giants, which has to serve as some more motivation for the legendary thin-skinned Belichick and Brady

And some factors in favor of the New York Giants:

1. Greg Cosell also pointed out that in the Giants' Week 9 win at New England, they didn't even have RB Ahmad Bradshaw or WR Hakeem Nicks
2. EVERYONE's picking the Giants, which has to serve as a confidence boost for a team that was one game away from missing the playoffs, just as the Packers were last year
3. All the attention surrounding Peyton Manning these last two weeks could shatter the fragile ego of a younger brother who has always been in Peyton's shadow, but I actually think Eli's ego is not fragile at all, and he may have an all-time game in his effort to establish himself as elite

So how did Jason arrive at picking Jet Blue?  Simple--he called it immediately after the conference title games.  Knowing that he'd have to pick the Super Bowl to win the season, he texted me minutes after the Giants kicked the FG to beat the 49ers that if the spread was under 3, he'd take the Pats, and if it was over 3, he'd take the G-Men.  That's when I promised him that NE would be a 5 to 7-point favorite.  I thought people would recognize that today's NFL is geared towards a team like the Pats winning it all because they focus completely on how better to execute their offense.  But folks have been so one-sided towards the Giants that, frankly, I'm shocked.  As I pointed out in my conference title game recap, it's not like New York is bringing in the world's greatest defense themselves.  I still fully believe in today being a shootout, an offensive showcase where defense is an afterthought and the scoreboard will be in danger of burning out.  Jason compared the Pats to the other team with a great offense and shitty defense, the Packers, and he points out that at least the Pack could stretch the field with their receivers.  He sees the game as also a back-and-forth contest, and he adds that NY better not spend one second trying to establish the run.  This is the Super Bowl, not a regular-season contest where you are trying to set up the rest of the league for when you play them later on.  You have to pull out all stops right damn now.  I will add that neither team defends the run particularly well either, so don't worry, whenever the Giants or Patriots want to sprinkle in a rush play, it will also be successful.  And finally, I'll point out that with all the focus on how NYG will get after Brady, keep an eye on whether the Giants can pass protect well enough.  Eli got his ass kicked against the Niners.  The Giants averaged 3 sacks per game this season, but the Pats were right there at 2.7.  Granted, that was mostly with DE Andre Carter, who's injured now, but they still have Mark Anderson and Vince Wilfork up front to push the pocket and make Eli move his feet, not to mention Jason's favorite LB, Rob Ninkovich.  And the Giants take much more time for their routes to develop.  Our X-factors:  Mine, and I hate to be so obvious, is Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski.  If he's not 100%, I'm in deep shit.  That's the definition of an X-factor.  If he doesn't do what he's supposed to do, it will affect the entire game.  And if Gronk can't get off the line of scrimmage and get downfield the way he had all season, it makes NE much, much less potent.  He and Aaron Hernandez have to take advantage of the Giants having the worst LB coverage in the league.  Ten hours of pre-game surrounding NYG LB and cancer patient Mark Herzlich is cute, but when the whistle blows, Gronkowski has to exploit him and make him wish that he was back in the hospital.  Even if he doesn't catch 10 balls, he's gotta show the threat of being the player he was to make the Giants respect him and open up the rest of the offense for the Pats.  Jason has an X-factor for each team.  For his pick, the Giants, it's DE Jason Pierre-Paul.  He wasn't there four years ago, so he's yet another body that needs to wreak havoc in the backfield and make Brady uncomfortable for the G-Men to have a chance.  For the Patriots, it's WR Deion Branch.  Jay envisions the Pats going back to a familiar weapon, and Branch has a history of coming through in the Super Bowl, winning an MVP in 2005 after catching 11 balls.

Oh, one last wish from me to Coach Belichick:  Please, Mr. Genius, PLEASE no sending WR Julian Edelman out in pass coverage!  If I see him lined up across from Victor Cruz in the slot, I'm pulling a Don Cornelius and busting a cap in my mouth.

My Pick: New England 44-38