2012 Week 10: What I Learned

• Games in no detail:  Colts-Jaguars (Jags suck), Broncos-Panthers (Cam scores 1st, Peyton answers with a million points in a row), Titans-Dolphins (Tennessee was really inspired by what the Bears did to them, I guess), Bills-Patriots (that's a couple of piss-poor defenses right there), Raiders-Ravens (Baltimore really respected Oakland, running a fake FG up 41-17), Jets-Seahawks (ho hum, another defensive smothering by Seattle).
• Yeah, yeah, sour grapes, I know, but I'll say it anyway:  The better team didn't win in Tampa.  Philip Rivers and the Chargers were wiping the field with the Buccaneers, but Josh Freeman pulled it out in the end.  He had help from the Chargers special teams, which reared its ugly head by allowing a momentum-shifting punt block for a TD.  Freeman had some great moves in the pocket to avoid the rush, and that allowed him to make the plays and complete the comeback.  Rivers isn't known for his mobility, so when he rolled right late in the game, his ill-advised toss downfield was intercepted for another TD.  I'm still not impressed with the Bucs, but I think the Bolts are going to get crapped on for finding another way to lose, and I'm not so sure they're underwater as most folks will claim.
• Watched the whole Giants-Bengals game.  Saw Eli Manning in action.  Yep, agree with the diagnosis.  Something's really fucking wrong with his arm on deep throws.  He drilled short and intermediate throws all over the place hard and accurate, but the handful of deep throws he attempted were way off.  I mean, way off.  That deep ball just ain't there for Eli right now.  And the deeper the hole got, the more Eli tried to wait for deep routes to develop while getting up the nerve to throw, and he wound up getting sacked more often than not.  Can't trust the G-Men until I see Eli throw deep with accuracy, whenever that will be.  Cincy can contend if they keep that kind of pass rush going, but I don't know how many more teams they're going to play with a crap pass protection like New York.
• There's not much to say about the Falcons-Saints game, but I wanted to say how wrong I was.  I said that New Orleans would definitely not make the defensive plays to win the game, and they did.  Atlanta gave up points and yards, New Orleans gave up points and yards, and in the end, Matty Ice had the ball and a chance to win, and they couldn't make the plays.  Now that I've admitted I was wrong, I will now point out that Matt Ryan threw deep on the last drive for Roddy White, who was wide fucking open, but because it was a broken play, he had stopped running, and he couldn't catch up to the ball over his head.  But he beat two NO defensive backs whose job it was to keep all Falcons in front of them leading by 4.  So that's how New Orleans made the defensive plays to break the undefeated record of the Falcons.  Congrats.
• Minnesota's still going to collapse and not make the playoffs, but they got to knock out the Lions once again and feel good about themselves.  Taking the early lead started the snowball rolling downhill, because that led to the Vikings pass rush pounding on Matthew Stafford, which led to the Vikings running the ball with Adrian Peterson, which led to more Minny points, and so on and so forth.  I would have never thought Christian Ponder could have found receivers to take an early lead with Percy Harvin injured.  World, meet Jarius Wright.  Who??
• QB KTFO #1:  Michael Vick, Eagles (concussed).  Nick Foles showed some promise when he came in for Vick, but ultimately, he couldn't beat Dallas by himself.  The same o-line problems Philadelphia had with Vick were there with Foles.  The Eagles started well, too, with a TD pass on the opening drive, but as overhyped and overdramatic as the Cowboys are every year, they got their shit together better than Philly.
• QB KTFO #2:  Alex Smith, 49ers (concussed).  Credit his replacement, Colin Kaepernick, with sparking the offense and coming back to force a tie with the Rams.  I tweeted that San Francisco was dead because they trailed St. Louis 14-0, and we know Alex Smith can't come back from that kind of deficit.  He didn't have to.  Mad props to Kaep.
• QB KTFO #3:  Jay Cutler, Bears (concussed).  His replacement, Jason Campbell, looked like he hadn't played an NFL game in a while, and he couldn't lead a comeback against Houston, who only scored 13 points, so it's not like the comeback was a giant number.  But Chicago's running game was struggling while Houston's was thriving, so it was much harder to get a pass attack going for the Bears because they were in 3rd-and-long all night while the Texans were in 3rd-and-short.  That's pretty much the game in a nutshell.
• QB KTFO #4:  Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (shoulder).  If you saw his replacement, Byron Leftwich, then you know why Pittsburgh couldn't cover against the Chiefs and why they almost lost the game.  Kansas City put up a hell of a fight, though.  They finally took a lead, scoring first, and they didn't let the Steelers push them around physically.  Special recognition goes to LB Derrick Johnson for singlehandedly crushing Pittsburgh's attempt to establish the run.  The Chiefs still lost because they are supreme at finding ways to lose, but they fought like hell for 60 minutes.  It was the extra time that did them in.

Week 10 Records--Dre 6-8, .429; Jay 7-7, .500
YTD Records--Dre 78-65-3, .545, Jay 73-70-3, .510 

Week 10 ATS Recap: Where One Loss Means You Suck

Picks We Both Won (4)

• Colts (-3) 27, Jaguars 10 - It's great for the Colts to be sitting on 6 wins already and in the drivers seat for a playoff berth, but it's come at the expense of some also-rans during their 4 game win streak. A big test awaits them at New England.
• Patriots 37, Bills (+13) 31 - Neither of us expected the Pats to put on a 4th quarter offensive explosion the way it went down the last time these two teams met. Buffalo is always good for hanging with the Pats at least once a year, and came up with a nice cover.
• Seahawks (-6) 28, Jets 7 - Something tells me I should copyright "The Meat Grinder" because I get the sense that the moniker for the Seabags home turf is going to suspiciously catch on somewhere.
• Cowboys (-1) 38, Eagles 23 - Eagle fans anxious to see more Nick Foles seem to forgot how he gave up the booty on two late defensive scores for the Boys. This Vick hate is very reminiscent of all the Cutler hate in Chicago. That went well last year once Cutler got hurt, right Bears fans?

Picks We Both Lost (5)

• Titans (+6) 37, Dolphins 3 - The Titans went back to Jake Locker, and now that Chris Johnson isn't completely useless, the product on the field looked markedly better for Tennessee. It didn't help Miami that Ryan Tannehill decided to shit the bed all day long either with three picks.
• Saints (+1) 31, Falcons 27 - To hear it in the media now, these 8-1 Falcons are total shit and not to be trusted, as if the only way to prove themselves would have been to go 16-0 and sweep through the playoffs. Despite a lackluster defensive effort, Matt Ryan had two late chances to win but couldn't convert on two separate 4th and goal situations. The Saints are being propped up as a very dangerous late season team, but I still see them as a spoiler with too little defense to surge out past several better teams. As for Atlanta? Worst 8-1 team ever, apparently.
• Vikings (+3) 34, Lions 24 - Thanks, Detroit, for temporarily messing up my prediction of the Vikings starting strong but still managing to finish in last. If Adrian Peterson keeps up what he's doing, however, he might run himself to an MVP.
• Niners 24, Rams (+12½) 24 - Insert random Donovan McNabb joke here ______________
• Steelers 16, Chiefs (+11½) 13 OT - For a crap team, the Chiefs sure seem to show up in primetime a lot. But, like last year, they managed to compete against a team they had no business being on the same field with. Like last year, they found a way to lose late, though I do think the Steelers had a little help in that 4th quarter (hint: bad officiating).

Picks Dre Won Head to Head (2)

• Ravens (-9½) 55, Raiders 20 - Yeah, that was me making fun of the Ravens offense.
• Bengals (+4) 31, Giants 13 - Dre went all Ron Jaworski and broke down the poor play of Eli Manning, and wow was he right. For one weekend, you couldn't tell which NY team had the worse QB, and that's hard to do with Sanchez in town.

Picks I Won Head to Head (3)

• Broncos (-4) 36, Panthers 14 - Peyton Manning is continuing to show why he should be an MVP candidate this season, and should have been one last season, when he didn't take a single snap. The Broncos are clearly the class of their division, though that's not saying too much, but also look to be a serious title contender in the AFC.
• Bucs (-3) 34, Chargers 24 - The Chargers dominated the stat sheet again, but turnovers did them in. I think that could be the recap of every Chargers loss the last several seasons. San Diego is a serious contender to unseat Dallas as the stupidest team in football, if they haven't already.
• Texans (+1) 13, Bears 6 - Dre never learns. His homerism forgot to notice that The Bear Whisperer had abandoned his beloved team. Houston toughed one out in the wind, rain, and muck of Soldier Field, and surprisingly looked more ready for "Bear weather" than the Bears did. Having Arian Foster helps a lot too, as well as having a Bear offense forget that anyone other than Brandon Marshall is on the field. Bear fans might be overjoyed that Mike Martz isn't calling the plays anymore, but at least he knew who Matt Forte was. Mike Tice (Dre's favorite head coach ever) has no clue.

2012 Week #10

The boys were back at it, trading barbs and talking shit while we made our picks for the week.  We didn't talk as much shit as normal because both of our voices are still on the mend, but I got a couple of nuggets to spice up the notes after the picks.

Fav	Spread	Dog	Final		Dre	Jay
	Thu. Nite
Ind (5-3)	3	JACK (1-7)	Ind 27-10		Ind	Ind
	Sunday
Den (5-3)	4	CAR (2-6)			Car	Den
TB (4-4)	3	SD (4-4)			SD	TB
MIA (4-4)	6	Tenn (3-6)			Mia	Mia
NE (5-3)	13	Buf (3-5)			Buf	Buf
BAL (6-2)	9½	Oak (3-5)			Bal	Oak
NYG (6-3)	4	CIN (3-5)			Cin	NY
Atl (8-0)	1	NO (3-5)			Atl	Atl
Det (4-4)	3	MIN (5-4)			Det	Det
SEA (5-4)	6	NYJ (3-5)			Sea	Sea
Dal (3-5)	1	PHI (3-5)			Dal	Dal
SF (6-2)	12½	StL (3-5)			SF	SF
	Sun. Nite
CHI (7-1)	1	Hou (7-1)			Chi	Hou
	Mon. Nite
PIT (5-3)	11½	KC (1-7)			Pit	Pit

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• I'm going with a straight hunch in taking Carolina over Denver.  Comparing stats, you'd have to take Peyton Manning and the Broncos over Cam Newton and the Panthers every time, but I think Cam's broken out of his spell and he'll be able to propel Carolina to an upset win.  Jason thinks it's a slam dunk to go with the hot team in Denver, and I don't blame him, but I'm siding with the moody phenom.  Wait, not clear enough...the black moody phenom.  There, that's better.
• Tampa Bay's pretty hot themselves.  Josh Freeman's found something, observes the president of the Josh Freeman Fan Club, JTG, and the Bucs are on a roll.  Jay's happy to pick Freeman and Doug "Muscle Hamster" Martin over the Bolts.  He even calls 3 TD receptions against his old team for the former Charger Vincent Jackson.  I definitely don't see San Diego letting that happen.  I'll take the Chargers in a squeaker because if it's going to be a shootout, I'm still trusting the experience of Philip Rivers over Freeman.  It's all about Rivers for me.  If he performs, they win, if not, Tampa will romp.
• We both are queasy about giving six points and picking the up-and-down Miami Dolphins, but my fucking God, Tennessee is a terrible team in need of a new coach and philosophy.  My guy Jake Locker returns to the lineup for the Titans.  His gift is a welcome from Cameron Wake.  Someone get the blotter.
• New England opened up a can of whoop-ass in the 4th quarter at Buffalo earlier this season, and we're just not feeling the Pats coughing up another period quite like that.  That's a lot of points, and very few teams rely on being in a rhythm like New England and their precision offense.  I'm hoping that their bye week will throw them off long enough for the Bills to score a couple of times and build an insurmountable point-spread lead, so when NE comes back again, at least Buffalo still wins with the points.
• Jason thinks Baltimore's offense falls into that old category with other teams who couldn't score to save their lives.  He says the Ravens will have trouble covering 10 points because they will have trouble scoring 10 points.  He correctly pointed out all of the tight games in which the Ravens have been involved this season.  All fine and good.  But I am not picking Interception Santa going West to East playing at 1P Eastern without Darren McFadden running the ball for him.  And Baltimore's offense isn't bad, it's thoroughly mediocre.  They're 16th rushing and 15th passing, and that should be good enough to beat a beat-up Raiders squad by two TDs.
• Here's a situation where someone thinks they've scouted something and now it's up to us, the general public, to decide what to believe.  You know the crappy throws Eli Manning has been making over the last few games for the Giants?  NFL Films' Greg Cosell said that he watched film with Ron Jaworski and has diagnosed Manning with a dead arm, like a major league pitcher halfway through the baseball season.  You know what?  Sounds like as good an explanation as any to me.  All I know is, I'm going to have a hard time picking the G-Men until I see better consistency on the deep throw from Eli.  Jason will back New York against the fizzling Bengals.
• I didn't ask Jason, but I thought for sure I'd be backing the Saints in this battle when it came up on the schedule.  And with the Falcons undefeated?  It will be rockin' in the Superdome, and Atlanta will have a very hard time combating that.  Well, they've fucking combated every other challenge so far this year, so why not?  Drew Brees will have to throw for over 500 yards to build a lead big enough to hold off a Falcons comeback, and that's unlikely, so we have to back the Dirty Birds.  In a very fun gunfight, which defense do you trust more to make the big play to win the game?  Hint:  NOT NEW ORLEANS.
• That starts a string of picks where we're seeing eye-to-eye.  The Vikings are falling fast, so we're backing the Lions in a road division tussle.  Detroit will struggle to stop Adrian Peterson, like everyone else, and then they'll look at Minnesota try to execute a passing attack without their only WR, Percy Harvin, and they'll laugh and sack Christian Ponder multiple times and romp in the Twin Cities.
• Seattle.  Meat Grinder.  Total Fraud.  Check, please.
• Dallas visiting the completely untrustworthy Michael Vick.  The Eagles are just pitiful.
• I'm skeptical of giving all those points and backing such a one-dimensional offense like San Francisco, and so is Jay.  But it's all about the 49ers defense.  Jay did the stat work for this one:  Last four SF wins, they've allowed 0, then 3, then 6, then 3.  Sam Bradford and your #24 pass offense, best wishes.
• Jason's backing the Texans in a huge road tilt at Chicago because he thinks they're going to be very motivated to show better than they did the first time they played a Sunday night game, which resulted in their only loss of the season to Green Bay.  I remember typing that I don't think Houston is very good based on their showing, and I still don't think Houston is very good.  I think the Bears are hella motivated after that piece of performance art in Nashville.  I know I'd want to get after the next opponent ASAP to prove that the Titans game wasn't a fluke.  In fact, I think that Titans game is the type of game a team builds off for the next several games.  I'm taking the Bears here, and I can already tell you that I'll be happy to take them next Monday in San Fran.  Write that shit down.
• Kansas City?  The team that can't take a lead?  On the road at a surging Pittsburgh team?  In prime time?  Come on.  When we see a reason to pick the Chiefs, we'll let you know.  I think I got KC getting all the way to 13, of course after letting the Steelers get to 34.  Jason's predicting the ol' blanking.  Either way, squoosh.

Thu. Nite Colts @ Jaguars

If you checked my What I Learned from this past week, you already know my pick.  The Colts are decent, the Jaguars are terrible, and Jason and I are both compelled to take the road team on a short week.  Indianapolis gives 3 points to Jacksonville.  It's not enough.  Whoa mama, it's not enough.  Jason's generous and calling it 19-13 Colts.  I got Andrew Luck lighting it up on the national stage and flinging four touchdowns in a straight up rout.

My Pick:  Indianapolis 31-16

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2012 Week 9: What I Learned

And I actually watched some games this time, so I can comment without talking completely out my ass!

• I had the score of the Chiefs-Chargers game nailed on the head early in the 4th quarter.  My 17-6 was looking nice until Kansas City did what they've been doing all year, which is, play from behind panicked and with zero poise and start turning the ball over constantly.  And next thing you know, there went the over.  But at least I didn't pick those Chiefs, so it was all good.  Man, KC is one shit team.  I can't call them a mail-it-in team because I'm not sure I've ever seen a very good effort from them by which I can compare.  Just keep watching in awe to see if they will ever hold a lead, and don't you dare pick them unless they're at home playing an equally shitty team.
• Alfred Morris is still running hard for Washington, but he's a rookie, so that will stop soon.  They're fucked when it does.  Robert Griffin III's play action out of that grade-school triple option crap is how he gets most of his big downfield throws.  When that running game disappears, watch out.  The long drive by the Redskins in the 2nd quarter down 7-3 may have decided their loss against Carolina.  It took about 7 minutes off the clock, it included two 4th-down conversions, and it ended with RG3 trying to run it in on 4th and goal from the 2 on a sprint sweep to the right, which got walled off.  I like the guts, but when you work that hard and get nothing for it, it can take the spirit out of you, and that's what happened the rest of the game.  And an observation about Cam Newton:  Dude, you got all the celebratory moves, after a TD, after a 1st-down run, you make sure everyone sees how happy you are for yourself, and then if you lose, your bottom lip is out and you can't figure out what's wrong.  It's going to be fascinating watching how you develop in the public eye, but at the moment, you're just a pure douche.  Love watching you play though.
• I made sure to watch the Detroit-Jacksonville game because the Jags have to host the Thursday game this week.  I wanted to see if they should get the same consideration as every other team hosting on a Thursday night.  The answer is, no, they shouldn't.  They absolutely stink.  That QB Blaine Gabbert is still no good.  He seems to have no touch at all.  He didn't just overthrow some of his guys, he put the ball in places where two or three defenders had a better crack at catching it than his intended receiver.  And he did that many times, and I guess that's why the Jaguars are once again ranked DFL in passing.
• I think the Bears defense just scored again.
• Denver's pass rush is becoming a very underreported factor in the team's success.  Everyone knows about what Peyton Manning's doing, but Cincinnati had the home-field advantage and forced a couple of INTs, so they had a shot at winning this one easily.  The Bengals took a lead early in the 4th quarter, then Peyton did his thing.  But the Broncos pass rush is what allowed Peyton to get the ball back a 2nd time and score again, thus covering the number for us.
• In the same vein, Baltimore's in real trouble if they don't find a way to generate a pass rush.  Cleveland scoring on five drives against the heralded Ravens defense should never happen, and it would have resulted in a Browns victory and more Brown Fever if they could have completed a few of those drives for TDs instead of having to settle for 3.  Terrell Suggs hustled back from injury to lend a hand to the Baltimore sack attack, but if he's not going to show up on gameday (one QB hit against Brandon Weeden), it doesn't really matter how quick he returned.
• I think the Bears special teams just scored again.
• Yep, that thar's a professional quarterback they got down in Naptown.  Andrew Luck lit up the Dolphins for 433 yards, a rookie record, and he's got the Indianapolis Colts at 5-3, which no one should have predicted.  And Ryan Tannehill almost kept pace for Miami, but it's clear that when Luck gets in a rhythm in his domed home, he's sizzling hot.
• It's getting almost predictable in Seattle.  Pound opponent with Beast Skittles at RB, trust rookie QB enough to make key 3rd-down throws and not much else, count on defense and home crowd to suffocate opponent's comeback attempts.  Rinse, lather, repeat.  As someone making picks on a public blog for all to scrutinize, I must say, I like predictable.  Keep it comin', Pete Carroll!
• You know who else is predictable?  Interception Santa!!  Ho ho ho, Carson Palmer had balls to deliver to all the good boys on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, to the delight of Josh Freeman, Doug Martin, Greg Schiano, and those who picked the Bucs, namely Jason and me.  Only Carson could put up 414 yards and three TDs and ruin the day by stopping the Oakland comeback bid cold with his legendary inaccuracy.  As for Martin, who ran for 251 and four TDs,  I can't help but be impressed, but the kid is from Oakland, so be wary.  This was probably one of those all-timers that he pulled out to show off to his homiez.  Don't count on anything remotely resembling this game in the future.
• I think the Bears defense just scored again.
• Some of those ref calls early made me think that the New York Giants were the chosen ones and that they were going to be awarded the game versus Pittsburgh to honor the victims of SuperStorm Sandy.  Steelers coach mike Tomlin tried to give the game to the Giants too, calling for a dumb fake FG run in the 4th quarter that didn't fool anyone.  What happened was a little stunning and hard to believe.  All at once, Eli Manning lost his command and started throwing the ball all over the place, Isaac Redman started breaking off big running plays for Pittsburgh, and the Giants appeared to all get tired and worn down on defense.  On a day where the Steelers had to fly to the game that morning and should have been the ones wearing down, the G-Men found themselves running out of gas.  I put that on Eli ending drives with wild throws and keeping his defense on the field.  I also put that on Ahmad Bradshaw and the rest of the Giants' poor excuse for a backfield, because if they could run the ball in the 4th quarter, Eli wouldn't have had to throw.
• Dallas can blame lots of missed tackles for its close loss at Atlanta, but they can also blame themselves for not relying more on Tony Romo.  Wha??  Yes, Dallas should have relied more on Tony Romo to win that game.  It was clear that their running game was not up to the task.  Felix Jones ran for a grand total of 39 yards, and he was the leading rusher.  Romo threw 35 times for 321 yards, and I'm sorry, but if you told me before the game that Romo was throwing only 35 times, I'd say the Cowboys would lose.  When you bring no run game to the park like Dallas did, you gotta throw around 50 times if you want to have a chance.  Their only touchdown of the game was in the 4th quarter in a hurry-up offense where Romo was able to find a rhythm.  Hey, I've never said that Romo can't play NFL football.  I've always said that he can't seem to stop finding ways to lose games late.  But in the case of trying to figure a way to knock off the undefeated Falcons, the only way they were going to find a way to win was through Romo, and terrible coach Jason Garrett was way too conservative in his game plan.
• Keep an eye out for the Eagles as a mail-it-in team, because I don't know how many more times they can gather themselves to take the field for a football game and watch Michael Vick turn the ball over and refuse to throw the thing unless he's about to get clobbered.  I know I would be disheartened if I were on the Eagles.  No matter what I do for my team, the QB shits on it.  Fucking up the lateral on the kickoff return wasn't Vick's fault, at least I don't think it was, but it's another example of having your spirit crushed.  New Orleans is the most fun team to watch by a mile.  Throw it all around, score, give up yards every way you can imagine, let them score, back and forth they go.  In other words, don't buy the hype that they're going to make a run in the season's 2nd half.  No team with a D that bad can be trusted except on a game-to-game basis.

Week 9 Records--Dre 12-2, .857; Jay 8-6, .571
YTD Records--Dre 72-57-3, .558; Jay 66-63-3, .512

2012 Week #9

Your friendly neighborhood prognosticators are under the weather.  Jason e-mailed his picks with no detail whatsoever because he's getting over a bug, and I requested the e-mail instead of getting the detail over the phone because I have no voice right now.  So I am playing hurt, but I'm here with our picks for Week 9 as well as my detail for my selections.

	Thu. Nite
SD (3-4)	9	KC (1-6)	SD 31-13		SD	KC
	Sunday
WASH (3-5)	3	Car (1-6)			Car	Wash
GB (5-3)	10	Ariz (4-4)			GB	Ariz
Det (3-4)	5	JACK (1-6)			Jack	Jack
Chi (6-1)	3½	TENN (3-5)			Chi	Chi
Den (4-3)	4	CIN (3-4)			Den	Den
Bal (5-2)	3½	CLE (2-6)			Bal	Bal
HOU (6-1)	10	Buf (3-4)			Hou	Hou
Mia (4-3)	1	IND (4-3)			Ind	Mia
SEA (4-4)	4	Min (5-3)			Sea	Min
OAK (3-4)	1	TB (3-4)			TB	TB
NYG (6-2)	3	Pit (4-3)			NY	Pit
	Sun. Nite
ATL (7-0)	3½	Dal (3-4)			Atl	Atl
	Mon. Nite
NO (2-5)	3	Phi (3-4)			NO	NO

• We start with a head-to-head battle, as Jay will go with Robert Griffin III over Cam Newton in a contest of dissimilar black quarterbacks.  Griffin's wiry, fast and has his head screwed on, Newton's massive, egotistical, and seems to have a screw loose.  But I'm calling for the end of the ongoing soap opera that is Cam's Crisis of Confidence.  If Cam hasn't been licking his chops all week at the thought of coming into DC against the last-ranked pass defense in the league, then he really has lost his mojo.  But I think he knows that he's gotta do work versus this team.  Washington's lack of a pass rush has not stopped RG3 from collecting 3 wins, but it should really sting the Skins on Sunday.
• Interesting that Jason's taking the Cardinals to cover at the Pack after what Arizona did this past Monday night.  I wish I could ask him why, but he'd probably just say "Eh, it's a hunch."  I know Green Bay was less than impressive against Jacksonville.  Arizona is playing way worse than Jacksonville, and think about that for a second.  This is my Lock of the Week.
• And the Jaguars get to host the league's most undisciplined team, the Detroit Lions.  Guess we were both impressed with the Jags last week.  Well, I'm also influenced by the Detroit effort last week, and I'll take Jacksonville to win.  Calvin Johnson is very iffy for Detroit, and since they can't run, they need all the weapons they can get.
• This would be my lock if not for Green Bay.  Chicago struggled last week against a clearly inferior Carolina squad.  They've been grilled by the local media all week.  Fans are wondering how real they are.  The Titans are the perfect opponent at the perfect time.  They should trounce Tennessee by two touchdowns.  LP Field should be ringing with cheers from inebriated Bears fans.
• Can't pick the Bengals because they're playing a team that's not made of 53 scrubs.  Denver's also led by Peyton Manning, who's playing on another level right now.  He's the guy you want to lead your team into a tough road battle, because his focus and commitment won't be an issue.  Oh, and he's 7-0 lifetime versus Cincinnati.
• We could pick Cleveland again, but neither of us is trying his luck.  I just feel that if Baltimore is any good, then coming off their bye they fire off against the Brownies.  And Jason and I both picked Baltimore to win the Super Bowl, so they gotta come through here, because any team beaten by the Browns I don't think can win the Super Bowl.
• If Houston's any good, they roll over the Bills by 10 or more.  By the numbers, it's the worst run defense the Texans maybe have ever seen, and Arian Foster is poised for a monster effort.  He might run for 200 yards easy.
• Andrew Luck and the Colts will provide a big test for a Miami defense getting credited for their wins.  I don't think they can pass the test.  Luck knows to avoid a bad running game when he has to, and the Dolphins rush defense has been stout.  That leaves Luck to find a way to win with his arm, and he'll gladly accept the challenge.  Miami is trotting out a banged-up QB in Ryan Tannehill and a less-than-impressive group of receivers.  Reggie Bush could have a huge day running on the Colts, but I don't think it will be enough.
• I am completely gobsmacked that Jason is taking any visitor in the Meat Grinder, his nickname for Seattle's home stadium.  I'm even more stunned when I realize he's taking the Vikings.  Last we saw Minnesota, they were getting crucified at home against Tampa on a Thursday night.  The long rest between games shouldn't hide the hell that Minny feels walking into CenturyLink Field.  Pete Carroll at his rah-rah best should eke out another home win.
• We both have Tampa Bay to travel to Oakland and knock off the Raiders.  This one may be all about the pass rush.  Josh Freeman, the Tampa QB, seems to really be gaining confidence as he torches bad secondaries for big yards, and Oakland is near the bottom of the league in sacking the QB.  I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Oakland led late and gave up the pussy to Freeman in the final minute.
• The Steelers-Giants pick is easy to me:  Pittsburgh couldn't use the hotel they had reserved in New York thanks to SuperMegaStorm Sandy, so they're flying to the game on Sunday morning, then playing Sunday afternoon.  There's not a lot of precedent for old veterans flying to a city and playing an NFL game.  But I gotta think that's not going to go well.  I mean, flying on gameday and playing against the champs??  That seems insurmountable to me.  But now that I went on and on about it, Jason will win this pick.
• That must be a lot of money going on the Cowboys to make the undefeated Falcons only a 3½-point home fav.  But we'll back Atlanta anyway.  Should be no coming out flat on a national-TV stage for the Dirty Birds, plus the other team is employing Tony Romo as QB.  Even if he plays great because he's going to have to carry the team since they are lacking healthy RBs, he'll still find a way to lose.

And Monday, we both have the Saints knocking off the woebegone Eagles.  Easy pick for me--I can't trust Michael Vick.  I have to go against Philadelphia  until further notice.  I even cut him from my fantasy team.  He's having his own Crisis of Confidence, but he should be beyond that at his age.  Drew Brees and the Saints should make Juan Castillo getting fired a couple of weeks back a good thing for Juan, because this particular beatdown won't occur on his watch.

Thu. Nite Chiefs @ Chargers

San Diego is a 9-point favorite versus Kansas City, and that's really big considering how the Bolts have been playing lately.  In a divisional matchup with a lot of storylines, I'll try to keep this one simple.  As bad as San Diego's been, Kansas City has been worse.  This should be a careful, low-scoring gruntfest between two coaches trying not to fuck up on a national stage.  Since the two QBs, Matt Cassel and Philip Rivers, haven't been able to throw the ball into the proverbial ocean, I see a run-heavy slugfest, and I will favor Ryan Mathews running against the Chiefs over Jamaal Charles running against the Chargers.  NFL.com calls this game "The Desperation Bowl."  Pro Football Talk speculates that SD coach Norv Turner may be booted if he loses.  Makes a boring game kinda interesting.  Also making it interesting: Jason is going with the road dogs, calling it a 19-14 Chargers victory but Chiefs cover.  I don't trust KC to even find the end zone tonight.

My Pick:  San Diego 17-6

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