| Fav | Spread | Dog | Dre | Jay | ||
| SF (13-4-1) | 4 | Bal (13-6) | Bal | SF |
Baltimore vs. San Francisco
Jason was forced to take the opposite side of my pick this year since I have the lead going into the Super Bowl. But he's got reasons why he's taking the 49ers to beat the Ravens 31-20. He thinks this will be the game where Baltimore's defense finally gets exposed as old and slow. In Colin Kaepernick, the Ravens will face a QB way more dynamic than the previous three they've played in the playoffs, those being Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady. Kaep's mobility compared to those three is off the charts. Jason thinks the Ravens will be in jeopardy when the Niners go to the pistol offense and make the linebackers commit to the run, leaving TEs Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker running free down the seam, just like Atlanta allowed in the NFC title game. San Fran, meanwhile, has a very good D, and that's getting a little overlooked in the face of Ray's Last Ride, or as I call it, the Witness to Murder Retirement Tour. Baltimore's getting a lot of love for their D knocking fools out, but San Fran is not below a good cheap shot occasionally from safeties Dashon Goldson or Donte Whitner. Watch those deep bomb attempts from Flacco to WRs Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones, because whether they work or not, those guys might get a shot to the dome just to let them know. And those bombs must hit for the Ravens, or else they got no chance. I'm going in favor of the Baltimore defense in my pick. I previously said that I love the under in this game, so I don't think San Fran's D will be bad, either. I'm calling for a defensive struggle in the Superdome, and I think it's going to be aesthetically unpleasant. I mean, I'm going to love it, because I love a good physical defensive chess match, but I'm afraid the expectations of the big event are going to make people in general feel like the game is a boring disappointment. I just don't see a smooth offensive display from either team, mostly because the defenses are both very good, but also because both QBs are Super Bowl virgins and will scuffle on the big stage, at least early. I trust Joe Flacco to break out and make the important throws more than I trust Colin Kaepernick. Not for their careers, not for the next five years, but for this one game, I'm trusting Flacco more. I would think the athletes in SF's linebacking corps wouldn't let Flacco dump a screen to RB Ray Rice and get big yardage, but it wouldn't shock me. Baltimore better be ready to grind out yards. The Niners don't have to blitz their nickel and dime backs much, so the 70-yard bomb probably won't happen for Flacco. That's fine. I like WR Anquan Boldin for about 8 catches for 120 yards and a TD. When San Francisco has the rock, I'm watching for Baltimore containing the 49er running attack by funneling the action inside to Ray Lewis instead of letting Kaepernick and RBs Frank Gore and LaMichael James perforate them on the perimeter. That will leave 3rd-and-long for Kaep, and if he can convert that regularly, then I'm in trouble. But that may be where Jim Harbaugh, the Evil Genius formerly known as Coach Insane, will try to show the world how brilliant he is by running one of his many trick plays. That may lose the game or win it ultimately. SF can find success if the Ravens can't cover those TEs when they run that read-option play-action. But I don't see a lot of big plays for the SF receivers. The Ravens secondary is playing as violent as ever, and I just don't think the Niners are ready. I won't predict safeties Bernard Pollard or Ed Reed putting a Niner WR to sleep on a deep ball, but I'm kinda anticipating it. Wonder if Randy Moss will still call himself the best if he has to be peeled off the turf. And I never talk about kickers, but the kicker might be the kicker in this one. Niners K David Akers might matter, and he's been bad at times this year. Ravens rookie Justin Tucker has been solid, and that might make the difference, especially in this point spread. Our X-factors: Mine is Ravens LB Ray Lewis. Hey, it's Ray's Last Ride! Gotta go with the inspirational leader, the man who's led Baltimore all the way back to the Promised Land, the man who will ascend straight to Heaven upon the game's end, according to the Saturday Night Live sketch. I hope he's the man who will make the tackles in the middle of the field and also turn back the clock and jump up for a big interception late in the game. Jason's is 49ers DL Justin Smith. It's been well reported amongst all those other wild storylines that star DE Aldon Smith hasn't found a single sack since Justin Smith tore his triceps late in the regular season. Justin is a real veteran, not only letting Aldon rush the QB by occupying offensive linemen, but sometimes holding those linemen and letting Aldon slip inside. It's not a penalty if it's not called. Jason hopes that Justin pulls out all the stops and impacts the pass rush, letting Aldon get back to playing like the stud he's been.
My Pick: Baltimore 20-16
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