- In a weekend filled with news and developments, Jason and I started Thursday night losing a game we think we should have won. The Bengals for all their flaws appeared to be a higher class outfit than the Dolphins, and with Richie Incognito in the fold, we now know that's as low class as it gets. Why did Miami beat Cincinnati then? Cincy didn't have more points than Miami in regulation because Andy Dalton all by himself kept the Fish in the game with terribly inaccurate interception throws. I thought Dalton was past that stage of his development, but he had a very bad night. Miami used a very cautious game plan to try to keep QB Ryan Tannehill from getting bounced around, and while it looked strange to see an NFL team run almost exclusively despite not being a very good run team, they kept Tanny clean mostly. Cincy actually looked like they would pull out the win late on Gio Bernard's "WTF?!?" run of the year, but give the Dolphins credit for hanging in there. Cameron Wake made the difference in the beginning with an early Dalton sack which caused the Bengals to go shotgun for almost every pass thereafter and in the end by burying Dalton for a GW safety even with the shotgun snap. Hard to overcome animals on pass rush. Hopefully Cincy learns from the loss and comes back stronger, because they had no business dropping this game.
- I don't want to say Atlanta has now looked like they quit necessarily, but man, if they haven't quit, then their effort on tape looks like shit. Matt Ryan without his top two speed weapons now produces INTs into triple coverage and Pick-6s on throws he would never make if he were concentrating. Embarrassing. A sure sign of quit is missed tackles, and Atlanta had massive trouble wrapping up Carolina runners and receivers on the day. They blitzed more as the desperation grew, and Cam Newton made them pay with on-target throws and of course the 8-yard TD run, which is his calling card. I think I now believe in the Panthers against pass defenses in the bottom half of the league, because the run is the base of that offense and sets up play action and read options, and even if you take away the run from Carolina, if you're not disciplined in your defensive backfield, Cam can shred you anyway. Atlanta is asleep and tucked away for this season as far as playoffs. They may be a value bet ATS when they play defenses that can't rush the passer.
- Two normally reliable factors had not been clicking lately in the Minnesota-Dallas matchup, and so Jas and I ignored those factors, and they bit us in the tookus. Dallas had not been coughing up games by having massive brain farts; even in losing last week at Detroit in the last seconds, the Cowboys played their end game correctly but just got overwhelmed by a career day by Calvin Johnson. And Minnesota had not been getting the all-world effort from their HOF RB Adrian Peterson. Both those factors came into play Sunday. Dez Bryant not only got a pass interference penalty with Dallas in FG range, but then removed his helmet to argue, drawing an extra penalty and forcing a punt. What a surefire way to snuff your team's momentum. And Peterson decided to show up, looking as beastly as ever on his 4th-quarter TD run. It was actually Christian Ponder looking decent at QB that kept the Vikings in the game. His comfort in the pocket was easy like Sunday morning compared to Tony Romo. And when the Cowboys did make it to Ponder, he showed good feet and avoided the big hits. Dallas is a mess on defense. Their front 7 don't make waves in pass rush without DeMarcus Ware, their secondary is young and undisciplined, and they had several Pick-6 chances on weak sideline throws but couldn't make it happen. Minny's front 7 had an A+ day, but they lost because their DBs weren't good enough on the final drive.
- And I ignored New Orleans having a subpar defense and a track record of mediocrity on the road, and the Jets made me pay dearly. The Saints have to feel great about having Jimmy Graham out there knowing no one can stop him even if he's gimpy, but if they're going to turn around and refuse to stop Chris Ivory, it comes out even after all that. Injuries played a huge factor in a few games, but losing Darren Sproles early doesn't make waves in the league. But maybe it should. Do the Saints make play calls like running a reverse on 4th down with their backup TE if Sproles is an option? I would guess hell no. Geno Smith wasn't a stud at all in this game, but when you call plays like that and give up 1st half points, you let Rex Ryan and the defense turn up the pressure in the 2nd half, and Brees was smothered. I'm sure if NO had the lead in the 2nd half, Rob Ryan would have buried Geno with blitz pressure.
- A bad turnover by the Rams started their day against Tennessee, and a bad turnover ended it. In between, the Titans had all they could handle from Zac Stacy and the St. Louis run blocking, which dominated the line of scrimmage all day. If they could control the football instead of turning it over, they could have won this game easily. Instead, they ceded field position to the Titans and let Chris Johnson have his biggest running day of the season. Tennessee gaining a 4th-quarter lead should have meant that they crush Kellen Clemens with pass blitz and lock the game away, but Stacy carried the Rams back. Jake Locker responded with his good and bad traits--he's a playmaker, but he's not the best decision maker. It was the Titan blitz that worked to get the strip sack from Clemens and give Johnson the ball for the final TD. Gregg Williams' D can do that coming off the bye, but later in the year, if you're a Titans fan waiting for that to save your bacon, you might be waiting a long time.
- You're up 10-3 in the 3rd quarter, you're 3rd-and-goal at the 1, you're playing an overrated defense that allows 4.7 yards per rush, you're starting a rookie QB who has shown an alarming lack of accuracy in his short career, and you call...a throw which goes directly to the other team for a 100-yard Pick 6??? I guess that's why Jason wanted to take Kansas City if Jeff Tuel was going to be the Buffalo starting QB. Smartest play of the day. Jason, not the play call. No, the play caller, Bills OC Nathaniel Hackett, and Tuel melded their wit and acumen to be THE DRIZZLING SHITS. I'm sure their parents are so proud. Kansas City scored nine points on offense and still deserved the win more than Buffalo. The Chiefs get a bye and then go to Denver on Sunday night. I don't care what the number is, Denver in Week 11 is the Lock of the Week.
- Washington's defensive backfield looked dazed and confused, but Robert Griffin III and the Redskins running game worked their way back and earned a late W. Nothing surprising here. San Diego is a flawed team with a resurgent QB but a lack of trust in its running game or its defense. Washington is a flawed team with an athletic QB still figuring out his own boundaries and a undisciplined secondary unconcerned with assignments as much as INTs. San Diego had the win late in regulation but didn't trust in its RBs. The Chargers had 1st-and-goal at the 1 with 30 seconds left and ran once with Danny Woodhead, who's no one's definition of a goal-line back, then threw two incompletions before taking the FG and forcing OT. Sad. The patented Matt Stafford snap-and-reach probably would have worked, much less give it to a damn real running back and let him do his job.
- I don't think Michael Vick expected when he got off the plane with his Eagles teammates in Oakland that one of them would be throwing a surprise Michael Vick Forced Retirement Party. But that's just what Nick Foles did in firing seven TD passes to lead Philadelphia to a rout over the Raiders. Nick Foles no doubt was THE SHIT. I still don't know why Chip Kelly's stuff doesn't work like this when Philly is at home, but damn if it's not that fyah as a visitor. And on the heels of Incognito's racist voicemails, it was great to see The Aryan Connection in full effect for the Eagles, as Foles once again singlehandedly made a fantasy superstar out of Riley Cooper, who's shoulder-to-shoulder with Incognito ready to fight every n---er in here, I'm sure. Hell, Foles tossed five of his seven TDs to white guys, which in 2013 is a sentence that I cannot believe I just typed. White Power rules in Philly, which means Vick can forget about playing for the Iggles ever again. (Send your hate mail to @imlddre.)
- Mike Glennon was the second lightweight QB to move his feet and make some plays and almost lead a shocking road upset, the first being Ponder. At least I fell on the right side of this one, taking Tampa Bay U. to cover a large number in Seattle. In addition to the Seahawks having major issues moving the ball in the air, which is why I took Tampa initially, Seattle also appeared to back off pressuring Glennon after they sent LB Bobby Wagner in on a blitz where he almost killed Glennon by hitting him so hard. They didn't pressure Glennon the rest of the day after that until late when they were rallying. Perhaps Seattle would have slept all the way through and lost the game, but the Bucs had RB Mike James throw a jump pass for the 3rd TD that made it 21-0 TBU, and that served as cold water in the Hawks' faces. Tampa may also have pulled the upset if they could get their pass D out of that stupid Tampa-2 that everyone has already seen doesn't work for their personnel. They weren't in zone the whole game, but they were in it enough to hurt them.
- I'm not going all the way back to Brown Fever with Jason Campbell, where I declared you had to pick Cleveland every time Brian Hoyer started at QB, but that team definitely plays better behind a QB not named Brandon Weeden. I'm about done with Baltimore until Ray Rice starts running again. Joe Flacco's not good enough to carry a team all by himself.
- Ben Roethlisberger's used to carrying teams with little support from the run game, but not even he could overcome Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, who looked like a USFL team on Sunday with all the points and yardage. Call them the Foxborough Express or something. But I want to warn you, dear reader: You may have heard lots of opinions about how Brady's back, how NE is an AFC power team again, how all is right with the world, but I'm telling you, Brady looked great because he had no one in his face. Pittsburgh cannot pass rush. Can't do it. I thought I was being bold calling for a 300-yard day for Brady. He went for 432 and four TDs! Come on. I'm carefully watching the sack numbers for Patriots opponents in the future, and if they can pressure the QB, I'm being very careful. Rob Gronkowski opened up the offense early, and when Brady wanted another receiver, he found him wide open because Troy Polamalu was out of position leaning towards Gronk. You knew Bill Belichick was confident because he went on 4th-and-goal in the 1st quarter and got stuffed. Belichick knew the Pats were better, and if they didn't make it they could get it back later, and the next play was Big Ben getting blitzed and throwing a terrible pick, followed by Brady to Danny Amendola wide open for a score. Roethlisberger hung in there long enough to lead a comeback to tie it up, and that just angered Brady, who led the rout from that point along with the NE blitz. But I'm still not a full New England believer.
- After the fact, I heard reports that the Houston offense was directionless in the 2nd half against Indianapolis due to their coach Gary Kubiak's collapse at halftime. That's fine reporting. It's also bullshit. Tom Brady doesn't lose that game. Ben Roethlisberger doesn't lose that game. Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, or Aaron Rodgers don't lose that game. This is on the kid Case Keenum, who had the heart and courage to light up the Colts with long bombs and good intermediate passes in the 1st half and didn't have that courage in the 2nd half because he doesn't know how to win NFL games, not because his damn coach collapsed. I felt so bad for RB Ben Tate, who clearly was in pain trying to run with four broken ribs but soldiered on anyway because Arian Foster wasn't able to go after a couple of plays. I felt bad for Andre Johnson, rediscovered as a weapon with the benching of Matt Schaub and then forgotten again. And I felt bad for the Texans defense, saddled with stopping the preeminent comeback QB in the game, Andrew Luck, and having no support from the offense the entire 2nd half. And I also felt good for Luck, because I think he's "elite" and I watched as a fan as he grinded out a big W, even though I Tweeted that Houston was going to win the AFC South at halftime and Luck was making me look retarded. One more observation: Wow, both these teams looked fast and excited and hyped up! Amazing what a Sunday night showcase game can look like when both teams are coming off a bye.
- The Monday night battle became interesting for a different reason--the star QB getting retired for the evening very early on, giving me a lucky win. Considering Green Bay found 20 points behind Seneca Wallace after Aaron Rodgers got KTFO by Shea McClellin, I concede that they probably would have found 40 behind Rodgers and spanked Chicago and covered the number. The whole complexion of the game changed from that injury, unsurprisingly. The Packers D spent so much time on the field, it's no wonder they couldn't contain the great Josh McCown and the Bears offense. It was the Marc Trestman Systems of Football (#trustintrest) prevailing in this one, as I predicted, but that Chicago D is worse than I thought. They couldn't tackle, they couldn't stop the run, and the only time they looked competent was when Wallace was forced to throw. Green Bay's offense is more run-based than normal these days, so they actually didn't look that off-balance with Seneca at QB. It's just that he had to throw and lead a comeback win, and that wasn't happening. That last drive for the Bears to wrap it up was excellent all around--great pass protection for McCown, great run blocking for Matt Forte, and great bleeding of the clock to leave the Pack with no time. Funny, I kept picking against GB when they started going through all of their injuries on offense and defense, and I get bailed out on this crazy pick because of the one injury they couldn't overcome.
Week 9 Records--Dre 7-6, .538; Jay 6-7, .462
YTD Records--Dre 63-68-2, .481; Jay 68-63-2, .519
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