Fun With Numbers: Playoff Teams w/ Elite or Subpar Offense or Defense

I got bored and started looking at some numbers the last couple of days.  I think it has something to do with how wide open I continue to think the NFL is going into this year's playoffs, and I decided to see if I could find a betting edge to sort out the teams.  I'm always harping on my favorite stats, yards per rush and yards per throw, so I decided to see if there was any importance to those numbers.  I set out to see if the squads over the years with the explosive offenses have had more success, or maybe it's the ones with the stifling defenses, and I also wanted to see if the teams that make the playoffs despite averages that are below the norm get bounced very quickly.  These things should work out the way one thinks, but I wanted to know what the numbers say, just to be sure.  I'm not trying to hype my findings as far off the expectations, but I did find a couple of trends that you may be able to use when deciding where you're laying your cash.

I used the regular season stats dating back to 2009, so that's eight years of data, and I came up with the following terms to decide what's a top or bottom offense or defense:  Since an average run game always seems to be around four YPC and an average passing attack around seven YPA, I labeled teams at 3½ YPC or less as an Elite run D or Subpar run O.  4½ YPC or more makes you an Elite run O or Subpar run D.  6½ YPA makes you an Elite pass D or Subpar Pass O.  7½ YPA makes you an Elite pass O or Subpar Pass D.  Got it?  If a team was in between those numbers, then they didn't show up on my chart in that specific field, so if a team was so vanilla that they didn't have what I defined as an Elite or Subpar offense or defense, they didn't make the chart at all.  From there, I slotted teams who fit these criteria and saw how they did SU and ATS for that year's playoffs.  For example, this is what the chart looked like for the 2009 season showing how those teams fared in the 2010 playoffs, including the Super Bowl:

	Elite                                                                       Subpar
		Run O 4.5+	Run D 3.5-	Pass O 7.5+	Pass D 6.5-	Run O 3.5-	Run D 4.5+	Pass O 6.5-	Pass D 7.5+
		Bal	Bal
SU/ATS		1-1/1-1	1-1/1-1
				Ind	Ind	Ind
				2-1/2-1	2-1/2-1	2-1/2-1
				SD		SD	SD
				0-1/0-1		0-1/0-1	0-1/0-1
		Dal		Dal
		1-1/1-1		1-1/1-1
				Phi	Phi
				0-1/0-1	0-1/0-1
		NYJ			NYJ
		2-1/2-1			2-1/2-1
		NO		NO			NO
		3-0/2-1		3-0/2-1			3-0/2-1
							Ariz
							1-1/1-1
				GB	GB
				0-1/0-1	0-1/0-1
				Min
				1-1/2-0
				NE
				0-1/0-1
Total		7-3/6-4	1-1/1-1	7-7/7-7	4-4/4-4	2-2/2-2	4-2/3-3

As you can see, there was hardly any separation in that year between the Elite and Subpar teams.  But a look deeper can reveal some eye-raising outcomes.  The Saints rode an Elite running attack by the committee of Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, and Reggie Bush, and a typical Elite passing attack by Drew Brees to a Super Bowl title, ignoring the Subpar run defense.  So no surprise, an Elite offense can go a long way.  The Cardinals won a playoff game despite also having a Subpar rush D, so does that mean the adage of defense winning championships is BS?  That's a small sample size to use to arrive there, but it's something I watched as I crafted charts for every year up to today, and no, I won't show you all of them.  I'll spare you the gory numbers.  It's also worth noting from '09 just how many teams made the playoffs with Elite passing games as opposed to running.  That's another legend people like to believe, including me:  Ya gotta run the rock to survive in the postseason.  Well, maybe you do, but not at an Elite level.  So after all the charts for the past eight years, here's the breakdown for each category:

	Elite Run O	Elite Run D	Elite Pass O	Elite Pass D
SU	23-25	11-7	54-46	29-19
ATS	24-24	10-8	51-47-2	29-18-1
	Subpar Run O	Subpar Run D	Subpar Pass O	Subpar Pass D
	6-4	26-24	4-6	13-14
	6-4	26-23-1	5-5	13-14

Again, I'm blown away by how many more teams are in the playoffs by having high-powered passing attacks ahead of anything else, but that's not why I did these charts.  I don't really care how a team made the field, I'm just trying to see if there's a particular style of team that's more deserving of a play when picking the games.  Are there any edges?  From what I see, a team with an Elite run and pass D is rare and it wins at a high percentage (8-3), though they're not a lock ATS (6-5).  High-powered offenses can get tripped up, though.  Teams with the combo of Elite running and throwing games don't fare so well, going 14-14 SU and only 12-16 vs. the number.  That's actually a worse percentage than the teams that have Subpar run and throw defenses, which are 7-6, though that's skewed by the unlikely 4-0 run that the 2011 Giants went on.  The Patriots won two playoff games that same year with a Subpar overall D, so six of the seven wins came that year.  Speaking of Eli Manning, another anomaly:  The only two teams to win any playoff games at all in this eight-year stretch while carrying a Subpar running offense are Eli's G-Men and the '09 Colts, with QB Peyton Manning, who lost the Super Bowl to the Saints.  So while having an Elite running game may be overrated, you can't overcome a Subpar running game without a Manning at the helm.

Other trends I noticed:

• By far, the best bet is on the team with the Elite pass defense.  That .617 percentage ATS is hard to ignore, though it's mostly boosted by the Legion of Boom-era Seahawks, the rival '49ers from '12 and '13, and the magical run by Aaron Rodgers and the 2010 Packers.  Remember when they could play defense?
• There was only one Perfectly Elite team, i.e. one team that was elite in all four categories:  The '14 Seahawks.  That's the team that should have won the title except for Darrell Bevell ignoring his Elite RB Marshawn Lynch with one yard to go for a TD, instead going with his Elite QB Russell Wilson, who threw the INT to lose it.  The lesson, now as it was then, is, if you're going to lose with a yard to go, lose with your RB.  Don't put it in the fucking air where anyone can grab it.
• There were three teams with Elite or Subpar numbers (remember, "normal" teams aren't listed, so some champs aren't accounted for) that made perfect runs SU and ATS through the playoffs:  the '10 Pack, the '11 Giants, and the '16 Patriots.  (The '09 Saints won it all but went 2-1 against the number.)  The obvious:  All of those four teams had Elite passers.  The surprise:  All but one (NE) also had Subpar rush defenses!  It doesn't matter if you can't stop the run, which correlates to the next item.
• Throw out the advantage of facing a bad run defense.  As you can see above, they're over .500 SU and ATS.  I actually have a theory on that:  Remember that playoff game when Herm Edwards took 2,000-yard rusher Larry Johnson and the Chiefs into Indianapolis and refused to rely on him even though the Colts were a bad run D, and Indy won?  I think coaches and coordinators get scared if their running game doesn't tear into the opposition right off the bat because they don't want to get eliminated without going to the air and going for the big chunk plays.  And they ignore the fact that most teams don't tear into an opponent on the ground early in a playoff game because the D is so jacked up.  If those coaches would just stick with the plan and grind it out, they may succeed more, but like ol' Herm, they get antsy and start looking for more and more big bombs from the QB, whether the QB is any good or not.  Something to consider if the Titans or Jags start slow on the ground.  Speaking of this year's playoff teams, here's how my little chart sets up for them:

	Run O 4.5+	Run D 3.5-	Pass O 7.5+	Pass D 6.5-	Run O 3.5-	Run D 4.5+	Pass O 6.5-	Pass D 7.5+
	Phi			Phi
	NO		NO
	KC		KC
			LAR			LAR
			NE			NE
			Min	Min
			Atl
			Pit
							Buf
				Jack

Here we see a couple of teams with Elite overall offenses in the Saints and Chiefs.  It's been a while since Drew Brees led such a potent offense, but we can see what happened when he did in 2009.  As for KC, Alex Smith led some teams in SF to the playoffs, but they didn't become an Elite passing group until that 2012 season when Colin Kaepernick took over halfway through.  We'll see how Smith fares this time with his own Elite passing game.  There are no Elite total defenses, but all three Elite passing Ds should be tough outs.  It's too bad that the Eagles could have came in with an Elite QB to buttress that Elite passing defense, as Minnesota will, but Carson Wentz won't be there.  Will Nick Foles join the infamous list of substitute QBs who get embarrassed in the playoffs, along with Ryan Lindley and Connor Cook?  As for the Bills making the postseason despite a Subpar passing game, they can look to two teams that won playoff games with crappy throwing:  The '10 Seahawks, who had home field advantage as 7-9 division champions and rode that and the birth of Beast Mode to an upset of the Saints, and last year's Texans, who were also at home and lucky enough to catch the Raiders without Derek Carr at QB and with the aforementioned Cook.  Buffalo isn't at home and won't be playing a backup QB, so they should not pose a problem for the Jags.

I hope you enjoyed my offbeat fun with numbers, and hopefully you spot a trend or two that helps your wallet this postseason and in the future.