2013 Week #4

Now that Bizarro Week is in the books, here are Jason and my picks for Week 4.

Fav	Spread	Dog	Final		Dre	Jay
	Thu. Nite
SF (1-2)	3	STL (1-2)	SF 35-11		StL	SF
	Sunday
Bal (2-1)	3	BUF (1-2)			Bal	Buf
TB (0-3)	1	Ariz (1-2)			Ariz	Ariz
Pit (0-3)	3	Min (0-3)		London, ENG	Min	Min
KC (3-0)	4	NYG (0-3)			NY	NY
Ind (2-1)	9½	JACK (0-3)			Ind	Jack
Sea (3-0)	1	HOU (2-1)			Sea	Hou
Cin (2-1)	3½	CLE (1-2)			Cle	Cle
DET (2-1)	3	Chi (3-0)			Chi	Chi
TENN (2-1)	3½	NYJ (2-1)			Tenn	Tenn
Wash (0-3)	3	OAK (1-2)			Wash	Wash
DEN (3-0)	10½	Phi (1-2)			Phi	Den
Dal (2-1)	1	SD (1-2)			SD	SD
	Sun. Nite
ATL (1-2)	1	NE (3-0)			Atl	Atl
	Mon. Nite
NO (3-0)	6½	Mia (3-0)			NO	Mia

All of our thoughts and observations are available on the Week 4 podcast, which you can hear at blogtalkradio.com/inmuchlessdetail or if you search on iTunes for In Much Less Detail:  The Podcast.  Still feels fuckin' cool to be able to say "Search for the show on iTunes."  Makes us feel like we're accomplishing something.

2013 Week 3: What I Learned

• Forgive me for not celebrating beating Jason for the first time this season.  I'm still looking at three straight weeks to start the year where I would've won more picks than I lost had I just picked the opposite of what I actually picked.  FML.  Bizarro Week, indeed.
• Two things the Eagles never figured out before their Thursday night loss to the Chiefs ended:  Start covering Kansas City's crossing routes, especially when Donnie Avery is the target, and stop throwing to Riley Cooper, who kept dropping passes as if he were expecting angry black men to come hit him hard or something.  One major factor that should worry Philadelphia in addition:  That video game version of Michael Vick, the one where he takes off running at top speed and gains 20 yards before anyone breathes on him?  Those versions of Vick are few and far between because of how beat up he gets as the season wears on, and the Eagles just took one of those games and squandered it.  The Chiefs are really dangerous when not going straight ahead.  It's a very familiar formula when playing against Alex Smith--physically take away the angles and make him beat you over the top.  No one's done it yet.
• Baltimore got some assistance from Houston in overcoming their offensive woes.  Matt Schaub threw an early INT right to the defender.  That helps.  Andre Johnson wasn't ready to answer the bell for the whole game, having to come off the field several times.  And it also helps when the Texans special teams gives up the booty to Tandon Doss on a punt return TD.  Jay and I stupidly went back to picking Houston after they showed a serious lack of urgency in almost losing to Tennessee.  This team has no heart right now.  They probably need a coach who will put his foot up their collective asses, but Gary Kubiak doesn't seem right for the role.  I might be through with them for a while until they show some fight.
• And now, the reigning heavyweight champions of showing no fight...the New York Football Giants!  Congrats guys, your prizes are waiting offstage.  Carolina wanted that game more from the opening whistle.  It was too damn easy for the Panthers to slice into the offensive line and sack Eli Manning over and over and over again.  Yes, every team has a game like this, but the G-Men didn't act like they were interested in fighting back.  They got that one possession early where they were in the red zone and got sacked, moving the ball back, and then missed the field goal.  After that, they looked like they quit.  Bad word to bring out in Week 3, but that's what the film looked like.  It was just too accommodating to Cam Newton and the Panthers offense for me to ignore the Q-word as a possibility.  Carolina will not look this good in any game the rest of the season.
• Washington and Detroit are very similar teams in that they're both talented on offense but flawed on defense, so their game coming down to the wire was no surprise.  Neither was it a surprise that the Redskins found themselves on the losing end.  How they did it was a bit bewildering.  They fouled up the 4th quarter by playing no defense on Calvin Johnson, watching their QB scramble and then cough up the ball even though no one was touching him, and getting a big TD catch overturned because the receiver couldn't hold on to the ball.  Usually it's Detroit finding ways to lose.  Griffin looked a little better on his runs, so perhaps he's starting to come around.  But he's still not as fast as last year.
• The Titans may not be title contenders, but they don't know how to play a boring game anymore.  Thanks to QB Jake Locker, every game's an adventure, for better or for worse.  He kept throwing the rock to Kenny Britt, who refused to catch the ball all game long and incurred dumb penalties and should have been benched by coach Mike Munchak after spending the week on Twitter claiming that he was being railroaded out of town at the end of the year (why would the Titans do that to such a wonderful player and community leader? LOL), but when they needed a 4th-quarter drive to win it with no Britt on the field, Locker came through.  Britt wasn't even the biggest cunt on the field, though.  That would be Chargers QB Philip Rivers, who argued against an offensive pass interference call in the end zone not on him but on someone else so demonstrably that he was flagged and set his team out of range for another shot at the end zone.  They had to settle for a FG.  I would have had to be stopped by my staff if I were Rivers' coach, because I would be tempted to bench him.  Who the fuck do you think you are that you can go batshit crazy arguing calls with the refs and cost your team precious field position?  That's worse than any action by Randy Moss or Terrell Owens or Deion Sanders or any of the other legendary hotdogs.  I was sure that San Diego would gain more yards than Tennessee on the day and still lose at the end, but the Titans looked a little scary with Locker scrambling for big yardage and making the pass coverage loosen up and pay attention to him.  Tennessee, despite its talent disadvantage most weeks, will not go down to anyone easy.
• I was looking forward to the Arizona secondary matching up with the New Orleans weapons and presenting a challenge for Drew Brees and the Saints.  What had happened was, Brees kept feeding passes to TE Jimmy Graham and the running backs and only took deep shots when they presented themselves, usually against CB Yeremiah Bell.  God, Brees is good.  Arizona's opening drive was perfect, ending with a touchdown, and Brees took over from there.  A pick from Interception Santa in the red zone down 24-7, and there went the Cards' chances for a backdoor cover.  I'm thinking that's the best group of defensive backs Brees is gonna play, and he carved them up because none of them could stick Graham.  Who else is going to contain the Saints passing attack??
• Whatever you may think of the New England offense right now, it's still good enough to put 23 points on the board, and Tampa had no chance of matching that with the way their offense is playing.  Goodnight, Josh Freeman.  Your college coach has yanked you for a freshman named Mike Glannon, hoping to spark ol' Tampa State U.  Good luck with that.
• Green Bay's entire defensive problem crystallized in this one game.  Roided-Up Troglodyte was on fire in the 1st half, forcing a fumble that turned momentum and started the Pack comeback down 14-0 in Cincinnati.  Aaron Rodgers didn't stop discount double-checking until the Pack were up 30-14.  Then Troglodyte got hurt.  Then Andy "Red Rifle" Dalton started the Bengal comeback, assisted by Giovanni Bernard, who provides a dose of electricity in the backfield that Cincy didn't have running and catching.  It was another rookie RB that cost Green Bay the game--their own, Jonhathan Franklin, who fumbled on 4th-and-1 up 3 in the 4th quarter.  The ball was recovered and ran back for the game-winning TD.  This may have been a function of the Packers not trusting their kicker.  Mason Crosby was terrible last year but brought back anyway, but coach Mike McCarthy could have sent him for a 48-yd. FG attempt instead of running on 4th-and-1.  He went with the run, and the fumble happened.  You can talk about the kicking situation or the Bengal pressure making Rodgers throw bad passes early, but the biggest GB issue to me is, how can they get players on defense who have the motor that Clay Matthews has?  Because when his motor turns off, they need other guys to fill in the gap, and right now, they don't have any.
• The first St. Louis series in Dallas was a hot mess:  A 3-and-out, but Dallas muffed the punt and left the Rams offense on the field, only to go backwards by getting sacked, and then a pass on a fake FG by the kicker was incomplete.  It didn't get better.  This was about as dominant a game between both teams' offensive and defensive lines as I've ever seen.  The Rams couldn't block the Cowboys for shit, and the Cowboys shoved around the Rams' d-line no problemo.  They should do that every game for DeMarco Murray.  He'd be an All-Pro RB with blocking like that.  I wondered for a second if Jason Garrett would have been smart enough to stay with the run as new coordinator Bill Callahan did all day had Garrett still been calling plays.  I assume Garrett was calling plays a couple of years ago when Murray ran for 253 yards against the Rams, so maybe he's not a total moron, but it sure seems like Garrett has over-relied on Tony Romo and the aerial attack lately, which is partially why he was removed as playcaller.  Whatever the case, St. Louis will not be competitive this Thursday against the 49ers if their lines play like that again.
• No one expected the Browns to be competitive against the Vikings after the upheaval earlier in the week.  Yeah, Bizarro Week at its finest.  So much for Minnesota being bulletproof when Adrian Peterson runs more than 20 times.  I didn't account for the awesomeness of Brian Hoyer.  Welp.  I'm moving on.
• Atlanta doesn't just let their foot off the gas as Jason suggests is their biggest problem.  Against the Dolphins down on South Beach, they got out of the car altogether.  The Falcons didn't tackle hardly anyone in the 2nd half, letting Ryan Tannehill lead a comeback victory in which he probably looked a lot better than he is.  And he looked fucking awesome.  Atlanta brought in Osi Umeniyora as a pass rush threat, and he paid dividends with a sack and strip, but the two questions remain:  Where is Osi the rest of the game and where is the rest of the Falcons D at any given time?  They had help coughing up this one, as Harry Douglas muffed a punt and Miami subsequently tied the game.  And Matty Ice didn't throw it up for Julio Jones late in the game when they needed a TD, then he forced it to him on the last possession when he was bracket-covered, resulting in the clinching INT.  Talk about doing just enough to lose.
• It's a world record for penalties for Gang Green!  Well, they went for the record of 25 and came up short, only drawing 20 flags.  And yet the Jets still beat the Bills because Geno Smith decided to be a long threat and go bombs away to the likes of Santonio Holmes and Steven Hill.  Bizarro Week strikes again!
• Speaking of Bizarro Week, how about the Colts coming off that big trade beating the 49ers by running down their throats with NOT Trent Richardson??  Everyone assumed they would prominently feature their new toy in their first game with him, but they started Ahmad Bradshaw, and let Bradshaw carry in the key moments in the 4th quarter to seal the deal.  For whatever reason, it looked like San Francisco played too fast to start on defense, getting flagged on the first two Indy plays, and then played too slow the rest of the way, letting Andrew Luck hit his targets without resistance and getting ran over by Bradshaw and Richardson.  Remember when Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs were a "Thunder and Lightning" combination with the Giants?  It was never "Thunder and Lightning," it was "Thunder and Thunder" because Bradshaw runs hard and angry, but he was lightning compared to the plodding Jacobs.  Folks, this may be the new "Thunder and Thunder."  As for the Niners' offense, they ran easy on the first possession and then abandoned the run for reasons I can't explain.  They tried to balance the offense, but with Anquan Boldin still unable to get free just like last week in Seattle and stud TE Vernon Davis not playing, the passing attack was a total FAIL.  That allowed Indy's D to start playing tight coverage and smothering the run because they knew the SF wideouts sucked ass.  Game, set, match.  Oh, Aldon Smith checked into rehab after the game but he played well, so at least he's got his priorities in order.
• Best team in the league.  Worst team in the league.  Coach of the best team in the league still thinks he's coaching at USC and trying to impress the BCS Committee.  Did ya think Seattle wouldn't run it up?
• I wish Pittsburgh hadn't shown some fight after the 1st quarter of their beating at the hands of Chicago because I still have hope that they can turn it around.  Just give Ben Roethlisberger some time and he can still find guys for big plays.  Antonio Brown might be the new Mike Wallace after all, who knows.  Yes, they still don't have a running game, yes, they still have major issues on the offensive line.  But call me Brokeback Dre, because I just don't know how to quit the mystique of the Pittsburgh Steelers.  I'm not totally stupid, though--Chicago was by far the better team on the field from the opening whistle to the final gun.  They're really good already on offense.  And the D is still the best in the world at going after that football at all costs.  The Steelers rallied back behind Big Ben but also by blitzing and rattling Jay Cutler, but live by the blitz, die by the blitz, as the Bears made killer big plays late using the open field provided by the Pitt all-out attack.  I can't really hate on the Bears anymore.  What more do they need to show?
• Terrelle Pryor has an idea of what to do in his offense, so Oakland isn't as hopeless as they seemed at times on Monday night in Colorado.  He doesn't have the expertise to execute the offense, but he looks like he knows where the ball should go.  I'm still rooting for him.  They could use Pryor taking off more often to shake up the defense.  I'm actually not completely convinced that Denver has much better talent than Oakland, but they have such excellent play designs.  And of course, the surgeon, Peyton Manning, who has the expertise to execute the designs.  Can any secondary figure out Peyton and the Broncos offense?  They'd better hurry, because Denver's getting better and better.  Manning might be playing better right now than he did in Week 1 when he threw seven touchdowns.  Think about that.

Week 3 Records--Dre 6-9-1, .400; Jay 4-11-1, .267
YTD Records--Dre 16-30-2, .348; Jay 25-21-2, .543

Week 3 ATS Recap: A Whole Week of WTF

Andre called it Bizarro Week. That about summed it up. In one week, everything we thought we knew about the league had been flipped: bad teams rose up, previously reliable teams faltered, and pass happy offenses embraced the run. This is why we pick 'em all! I'm just glad that putting up a 4-win week only cost me 2 games off my lead over Dre.

Picks We Both Won (2)

• Lions (PICK 'EM) 27, Redskins 20 - In a week when all flipped, even this one was in doubt. Tied at 17 going into the 4th quarter, the Lions managed to pull away thanks to their star playmakers in Matt "China Doll" Stafford and Calvin "Megatron" Johnson. They don't win many games, but they sure have enough nicknames to go around.
• Seahawks (-19) 45, Jaguars 17 - When Seattle backup QB Tarvaris Jackson has a more productive day in garbage time than any of the Jags regulars, you know it's been a tough day. With the 49ers faltering, the Seahawks look primed to put the NFC West in a stranglehold.

Picks We Both Lost (7 and a PUSH)

• Titans (-3) 20, Chargers 17 - PUSH - This was one of three picks I either tied or lost in the final seconds of the games. Inexplicably, with the Titans needing a TD to win, the Chargers played man up coverage on the outside, allowing Jake Locker to throw a ball up for grabs into single coverage. His receiver won the jump ball and sent my SD pick right to Pushyville. Props to Dre, he sure knows his pushy.
• Chiefs (+3) 26, Eagles 16 - We covered this on the podcast before our week 3 picks, but perhaps we BOTH underestimated the Chiefs and overestimated the Eagles. Philly hasn't looked like much since their breakneck first half against Washington, and while KC isn't flashy, they sure don't kill themselves and manage to get the job done.
• Ravens (-1) 30, Texans 9 - So Baltimore gets destroyed by Denver and barely escapes their home opener against Cleveland with a win, they're sure no match for the Texans, right? So, of course, the Ravens beat Houston with special teams and defensive touchdowns, despite being outgained on the day. That's So Ravens!
• Panthers (-1) 38, Giants 0 - OK, so maybe I had the Giants thing right about them sucking ass to start the season. Problem is, they've shown NOTHING to make anyone think they're going to turn this thing around. How bad is it when the Giants aren't even the best team in their city, and the other team is the fucking Jets?
• Saints (-9) 31, Cardinals 7 - We took a chance on the big number and lost. It happens. In the meantime, the Saints are looking better on both sides of the ball and look poised to cruise to the NFC South title if Atlanta can't figure out how to stop choking late.
• Browns (+6½) 31, Vikings 27 - All you need to know is how bad we ragged on Brian "Whoyer" Hoyer on the podcast and that the Cleveland banners outside their own stadium should read "What the Fuck?!?!?!?" Naturally, Cleveland won. We even referenced this in the show, we knew we had doomed ourselves.
• Jets (-1) 27, Bills 20 - The Bills got down big early and made a game of it late, but Gino Smith found Santonio Holmes in single coverage late (a theme on the day perhaps?), and Holmes beat his defender and then pushed him out of the way en route to a 69 yard game winning score.The Jets are 2-1, but know this: they're still crap.
• Broncos (-14½) 37, Raiders 21 - Really, the only drama in this whole game was the betting line. When the Broncos RBs are throwing down Rock-Paper-Scissors to see who will score the next TD, is there anything else in the game worth watching?

Picks Dre Won Head to Head (4)

• Patriots (-8½) 23, Buccaneers 3 - Tom Brady wasn't completely on the same page with his new wideouts yet, but the improvements were enough to hold off the sinking ship that is the Tampa Bay Bucs. It's getting ugly down in Tampa, and big changes are on the horizon if they don't right this thing.
• Bengals (+2½) 34, Packers 30 - The Packers seem good for one of these every year. Last year it was the meltdown in Indianapolis, and now this. The Bengals were up 14 before Aaron Rodgers touched the ball, but the Packers still managed to score the next 30 points. Should be enough, right? Nope, the Packers got sloppy late, and the Bengals took advantage and eked out the win. Neither team impressed this day.
• Cowboys (-3½) 31, Rams 7 - I got cute with the Rams and lost. Dre called it with his DeMarco Murray stat. Nice work. The talking heads are proclaiming the run game is back in Big D. I say no, Murray just loves to run on the Rams. End of story.
• Dolphins (-1) 27, Falcons 23 - Miami did the thing that Atlanta has been unable to: score the winning TD at the very end of the game. The Falcons high octane offense looks weak at the moment, while Miami, who managed to trail until the very end of the game, seems to have found its groove.

Picks I Won Head to Head (2)

• Colts (+10) 27, Niners 7 - Whoa! I expected a letdown from the Niners after getting crushed in Seattle, but not like that! Not at home. The radio commentators on this game pointed out that Seattle may have found the blueprint to beat Kaepernick in taking away the over the middle routes and making him beat you on the outside. It's exacltly what the Colts did, and something to keep an eye on as the season progresses.
• Bears (-1) 40, Steelers 23 - I told you that the Steelers were D-O-N-E in week 1 and I am certainly sticking by that assessment. The Bears are off to a nice 0-3 start, but good luck getting anyone to admit to you they are the best team in the NFC North. They're not. Not yet.

2013 Week #3

A new night for the podcast, maybe some new luck for me in the picks this week.  One can only hope.

Fav	Spread	Dog	Final		Dre	Jay
	Thu. Nite
PHI (1-1)	3	KC (2-0)	KC 26-16		Phi	Phi
	Sunday
Hou (2-0)	1	BAL (1-1)			Hou	Hou
CAR (0-2)	1	NYG (0-2)			NY	NY
WASH(0-2)	Pk	Det (1-1)			Det	Det
TENN(1-1)	3	SD (1-1)			Tenn	SD
NO (2-0)	9	Ariz (1-1)			Ariz	Ariz
NE (2-0)	8½	TB (0-2)			NE	TB
GB (1-1)	2½	CIN (1-1)			Cin	GB
DAL (1-1)	3½	StL (1-1)			Dal	StL
MIN (0-2)	6½	Cle (0-2)			Min	Min
MIA (2-0)	1	Atl (1-1)			Mia	Atl
NYJ (1-1)	1	Buf (1-1)			Buf	Buf
SF (1-1)	10	Ind (1-1)			SF	Ind
SEA (2-0)	19	Jack (0-2)			Sea	Sea
	Sun. Nite
Chi (2-0)	1	PIT (0-2)			Pit	Chi
	Mon. Nite
DEN (2-0)	14½	Oak (1-1)			Oak	Oak

All of our thoughts and observations are (or should be) up on the podcast right now, which, by the way in case you forgot, is at blogtalkradio.com/inmuchlessdetail.

2013 Week 2: What I Learned

• I had to learn to not get too excited about good starts to the week.  It can get real shitty in a hurry.
• Jason's got the "Tom Brady is a Whiny Bitch" market covered, so I'll try to look at the actual Jets-Pats game to see what could be learned from that.  Geno Smith's not scurred, I'll give him that.  He hangs in the pocket in the face of pass rushers and he doesn't try to run at every hint of trouble.  You know what else he doesn't do?  Get rid of the fucking football.  I couldn't say if his receivers were open or not, but he certainly held onto the ball as if they were all being blanketed, and predictably, when Smith and the Jets had to throw at the end of the game to try to win it, he got intercepted, because that's how it works.  Throw when you don't have to, and the defense will be much less prepared to make a play on the ball.  Simple.  I asked Jay at the beginning of the Saturday show if he thought the bad quality of the game was because it's the Jets, or Brady and the Pats aren't on the same page, or the weather, or the Thursday Night Football aspect where the teams are having an NFL car crash four days after their last car crash?  He said it's probably a combo of those things, and I think I agree.  But man, I wonder if New England's passing offense will look better this next upcoming game against Tampa with ten days of prep.  If not, that team's got no shot at a decent season.
• It's obvious that the Falcons have trouble defending teams when Matt Ryan and the offense hands them a big lead.  That's a direct result of having no pass rush.  No secondary can hold up under constant go routes and slants when the QB isn't being rushed.  It happened again vs. the Rams, as Matty Ice and Julio Jones put on an aerial show to push the Dirty Birds to a big lead before Sam Bradford and Tavon Austin kept hooking up to bring St. Louis back.  I like Atlanta to win the title still because defense is less important now than at any other time in the history of football.  But it doesn't make it any easier to watch the Falcons constantly get lit on fire through the air.  Thankfully they built that big lead early and held on, like I predicted.
• You know who the Chargers remind me of these first two games under new coach Mike McCoy?  The old New England Patriots, you know, when all of their receivers weren't 14 years old and bad.  You got the veteran QB in Philip Rivers, sitting comfortable and picking out very quick targets, and you got guys catching the ball in perfect position to turn upfield and make huge plays out of routine throws.  There's even Danny Woodhead running around catching dink-and-dunk underneath shit when needed, just like he did as a Patriot.  I'm not declaring San Diego the next big thing, but fuck, they would have blown Philadelphia out if not for two red-zone fumbles.  I'm really curious if the Eagles' poor defensive showing is a result of their hurry-up offense not leaving them recovery time, or if they just suck.  They even tried blitzing in the 2nd half to rattle Rivers, but they weren't successful.  The Eagles and Chip Kelly get the short week to prepare for old boss Andy Reid and the Chefs, and the way Alex Smith has run that offense, it might be more of the same Thursday night.
• Reid and that Novocaine offense, as Jason puts it, survived the Cowboys finding a way to not win, as they are wont to do.  I'll take the victory against the number, and I deserve it because Dallas was better even though they lost.  I was amazed at the Cowboys choosing to not even try to be balanced on offense in any way.  Tony Romo was going to throw to Dez Bryant on every play until Kansas City stopped it, and they really never did.  It was Bryant dropping a wide-open 1st-down conversion that opened the door for KC to get the comeback win.  Who knows if Dallas could have put up more points if they involved other players.  The Chiefs appear to have a baseline level of offensive production that they can rely on as long as Alex Smith is upright, and while that is a large improvement over the uncertainty of their QB play over the last decade, I'm still not calling them a playoff team.
• The Miami-Indy game went just like we figured--the Dolphins play hard, contend with the Colts all game, and Andrew Luck has a chance to win it late because it was a tight contest.  The difference is that finally, a team stopped Luck from completing the comeback.  Indy's protection broke down, and Luck couldn't weather the storm.  No shame in that loss for the Colts, but how about a round of applause for the 2-0 Miami Dolphins!  And on the road, no less.  That crazy pick of Miami bringing a division title to South Beach doesn't look so damn crazy right now, does it?!
• YA DONE PISSED ME OFF! Team #1:  The Houston Fucking Texans.  So the Texans are rolling along, not squashing the Tennessee Titans as I'd hoped, but outplaying them and winning by 4 with the chance to make it double digits and cover the number for me in the 4th quarter.  The sequence that followed made my jaw drop:  Houston tackled Chris Johnson in the end zone for a safety to go up 6, they got stopped on the next drive but pinned Jake Locker and that grade-school Titans offense at the 1-yd. line, then J.J. Watt and the "stout" Texans defense gives up a 99-yd. drive in like 4 minutes in which Locker found whatever receiver he wanted wide open, then Matt Schaub and that "elite" Texans offense take the next possession and go backwards three straight plays including two sacks (one didn't count due to offsetting penalties) before WR DeAndre Hopkins runs the wrong fucking way and Schaub throws a pick-6 right to the defender, and now Tennessee is not just covering but is winning by 8 and really should have gone home with the win, ruining millions of survivor pools.  The Texans were weak in that sequence, mentally, physically, in every way.  You can lose a game (or not cover a spread) in a variety of ways that don't involve getting your manhood blowed up in front of God and the world.  Yeah, yeah, credit to Jake Locker for making the throws, credit to Titans d-coordinator Gregg Williams for audibling to some bounties or something...but really, Houston, you played like 53 pussies in that 4th quarter, period.  DB Bernard Pollard put your star receiver Andre Johnson to sleep during that quarter, too, and you might not have won if not for that because it made Hopkins the only viable receiving option for Schaub during the rally, and Hopkins came through big time.  But seriously.  Get your shit together.  That's two games in a row where you played nothing like you're capable.
• Same old Aaron Rodgers, same old Washington defense (2 games, 1,023 yards of offense surrendered!), same RGIII bumbling around as if he didn't play at all during the preseason or something.  Nothing to see here, folks.
• Cleveland-Baltimore also went like I figured, with both offenses struggling mightily but the Ravens having just enough to win by a TD.  I know Brandon Weeden has been less than excellent as the Browns QB thus far, but remember, he does get deep threat WR Josh Gordon back from suspension next game in the Metrodome.  He might make a difference.
• YA DONE PISSED ME OFF! Team #2:  The Carolina Fucking Panthers.  It looks like coach Chico Rivera will pay the price for the Panthers and their consistent inconsistency.  Maybe fairly, maybe not.  But there's no doubt that this team doesn't know how to play winning football despite having some really talented players.  Buffalo was using a quicker pace with their rookie QB E.J. Manuel, and that should have been an invitation for the Panthers to confuse Manuel with different looks on defense and force him into indecision and mistakes.  But they just let the Bills hang around until that sad last drive where Manuel kept hitting short little passes that should have used up the game clock except Carolina would let Buffalo receivers run out of bounds or they would just commit a penalty and give the Bills renewed hope.  Then the TD pass to Stevie Johnson, the Bills' best WR by a mile, who was totally uncovered in the end zone...that was a wow.  Cam Newton and the Panthers looked better on offense than last week against Seattle, but they still didn't do enough to win.  Whoever let Bills DE Mario Williams rack up 4½ sacks while Carolina tried to put the game away should be cut right now.  And the Panthers kept losing defensive backs to injury, which I'm sure contributed to the confusion on that final drive with a bunch of new guys in there on defense.  But no excuses.  Quit trying to be like last year's Lions and Cowboys and Jets, inventing new ways to lose games.  It's not a good look at all.
• So much for the Vikings securing a win when Adrian Peterson runs more than 20 times.  He got 26 carries for 100 yards, but he couldn't punch the ball in the end zone on any of Minnesota's three FG drives in the 4th quarter, and that left Jay Cutler enough time to lead yet another game-winning drive.  The Vikes need another QB, not that Christian Ponder's the worst in the league (yeah, Gabbert, I'm looking at ya), but he's not very good.  The Bears?  Golf clap.  Nice win, boys, another come-from-behind effort.  But, um, remember what I said last week about protecting Jay Cutler from Jared Allen?  You let Allen get him once on a scramble, and it turned into a defensive TD.  Should have cost you the game.  Good luck next Sunday night in the Steel City.
• Weird shit in Tampa Bay, not just the lightning delay (ok, time out--WTF is with all these lightning delays??  Did we miss another Mayan deadline where we're all about to get electrocuted or something?) but it seemed like New Orleans let the Bucs' careless habits infect them, too.  How else to explain the Saints kicking a FG up 3 at the end of the 1st half and taking the points off the board because a TB penalty moved them from the 2 to the 1-yd. line, giving them a shot at a TD that they could have taken on 4th down from the 2 if it was that damn important?  They didn't get the TD and they missed covering the spread by a FG so they really screwed Jason and me out of that pick.  Tampa played hard, as we expected under their embattled college coach Greg Schiano, and they played undisciplined and stupid, as we also expected.  But in between all the Bucs penalties and generally putrid execution, Drew Brees found himself throwing an 85-yard INT for a TD that was such a direct bullet to the defender Mason Foster that it looked staged.  I guess if you touch the Buccaneers long enough, eventually you acquire the TB virus.  (YEEEAAAHH!!)  I still don't believe in the Saints.
• YA DONE PISSED ME OFF! Team #3:  The Detroit Fucking Lions.  Yes, I did suggest to Jason that Arizona stud WR Larry Fitzgerald looked likely to miss the game against Detroit.  But he jumped at that nugget of information and changed his pick voluntarily.  Late Sunday afternoon, after I got off work, I found out that Fitz was going to give it a go.  All I could do was hope that the Lions could persevere despite that.  Of course, they didn't.  Interception Santa even tried to give the Lions the game, as Detroit took an 8-point lead after the pick-6, but the Cardinals rallied back.  What Carson Palmer giveth with his INT gifts, he can taketh away because he's so much better than the previous Arizona QBs ever since Kurt "Dumplings" Warner retired.  Not sure how big of a loss Reggie Bush was in this game, as it looked like Detroit still had it in hand, but that blocked FG sure hurt the Lions and turned momentum. The team with the most blocked FGs since 2008 is the Arizona Cardinals, and I wish I knew how to quantify that into how much more likely they are to win games as a result.  I wonder if the Lions lead the league in come-from-ahead losses in that span.
• Jacksonville doesn't even piss me off because it's totally my fault that I keep picking them.  I'm going off the thought that they can't go 0-16, and Kansas City and Oakland looked like decent spots to get a win or at least cover the number.  How about this:  I don't care what the spread is Sunday when the Jags go to Seattle, I'll take the Seahawks and give the points as my Lock of the Week.  There, that should get Jacksonville their first cover of the year.  Probably even win the game.
• Running games made the difference in Jersey, where Peyton won the Manning Bowl for the 3rd straight time over Eli.  The Giants don't have one, and the Broncos do.  It's so hard to beat a good team with no balance, and Denver's a very good team.  As I figured, Eli didn't lay down and have a crap game, he just didn't have the firepower to hold off the Broncos and the offensive onslaught they were going to have.  Lots of talk about Eli's turnovers, which is a problem.  But it's not the reason the G-Men are in trouble.  David Wilson's failures are the main problems.  I don't know when Peyton gets to play a challenging defense, but until he does, the Broncos should roll.
• YA DONE PISSED ME OFF! Team #4:  The San Francisco Fucking-Niners.  San Fran probably doesn't even deserve to be one of the teams that pissed me off because the team they were playing was on another level and couldn't have been beaten by anyone Sunday night.  But the fact is, the 49ers still aggravated me.  They appeared to be overwhelmed by the moment playing in that unbelievably loud stadium in Seattle.  But it's not like they never played there before.  Colin Kaepernick got happy feet early because of the dominant D-line play of the Seahawks.  It looked like they forced more SF play-action than they normally run as the Niners tried to disrupt Seattle's defensive timing.  It never worked.  CB Richard Sherman took the challenge of holding down WR Anquan Boldin and excelled, and the rest of the D was freed up to fly to the ball and smother San Fran.  Both defenses were extra-hyped, but Seattle was able to stick to the run and pound away on the ground.  Russell Wilson took a shot on an option play but shook it off and stuck to the game plan, and Seattle was much the better team on this night.  I thought Coach Insane would have his team ready after last year's blasting.  I thought wrong.
• The Cincinnati cover over Pittsburgh was a case of a score being so close that it really could have gone either way, and illustrates how hard it is to pick against the spread.  If Cincy's last TD drive gets stopped and they take a FG, they win 16-10 (which was my score prediction) and the Steelers cover the 6½.  But it was not meant to be.  I thought Todd Haley was a boob when he coached the Chiefs, so I'm not surprised that Pittsburgh's offense is struggling now that he's their offensive coordinator.  But I'll recognize that he tried some different things to help out Ben Roethlisberger and the woeful Pittsburgh offense.  On their first two 3rd downs, they ran, trying to avoid the blitz and give the running game some confidence.  Didn't work, but they tried.  Ben seemed so stunned every time he got time in the pocket that he was too anxious to get the ball to his targets and missed his throws.  He wasn't as inaccurate as Andy Dalton, but it was close.  Haley also tried a bit of no-huddle, which was curious given the o-line struggles, but the TD at the end of the 1st half came off the no-huddle, so it looked like a good idea.  The worst thing the Bengals could do was blitz Big Ben, because he took advantage of the man-to-man coverage.  But once Cincy figured that out, they shut down the Steelers in the 2nd half just rushing 4 guys, or sometimes even 3.  Pittsburgh won't win any shootouts because they can't protect long enough for Ben to hit 5 or 6 big pass plays downfield.  He'll be lucky to get more than two downfield shots per game.  The Bengals have a Jekyll-and-Hyde at QB in Dalton.  He found receivers other than A.J. Green in the 2nd half to put the game away, but that was after he missed badly on several throws in the 1st half.  He has to be more consistent for them to take the next step.

Week 2 Records--Dre 7-9, .438; Jay 9-7, .563
YTD Records--Dre 10-21-1, .323; Jay 21-10-1, .677

Week 2 ATS Recap: The Illusion of Success

Week 2 is historically a rough week here at IMLD. So for both of us to come in around the .500 mark on this weeks picks is definitely a victory. Dre was much more confident in his picks (after a 3 win week, how could he be worse?) and I was strangely unsure of mine after a 12-3-1 Week 1 performance. We went head to head on less games this week, and I even spotted Dre a win on Thursday night, but still managed to build on my 9 game lead in the standings. But as with all things after the second week, the picture we think we see is often not reality. Several teams jumped out to 2-0 starts, but are plainly not as good as that record would indicate, and as we go into the next few weeks, I suspect we will see the real teams rise to the top.

Picks We Both Won (4)

• Packers (-9) 38, Redskins 20 - The Packers ran out to a 31-0 lead on Washington, making the second straight week the Skins got down early, and coasted to the win. There is nothing of note in the garbage time play of RGIII, who has compiled some nice, meaningless stats the last two weeks. I'm not a big stat guy, but I will go to them for my continued assumption that RGIII should NOT be playing right now. Through two games, Griffin has rushed for a total of 25 yards, versus 124 yards over the same period last year. He is simply not a threat at the QB position without his wheels as teams don't even need to game plan for that part of his game at the moment.
• Ravens (-6½) 14, Browns 6 - We expected Baltimore to cover here, but all covers are not equal. This game was crap, and Baltimore should be ashamed for this effort in their first home game since winning the Super Bowl. So far, the champs have not impressed.
• Bears 31, Vikings (+5½) 30 - Here's Chicago, out first contender for least impressive 2-0 team. They wont take the title, but they are in the running. So far, the Bears have eked out wins at home against Cincinnati and Minnesota, nice wins for sure, but not necessarily impressive. The two teams combined for 7 turnovers on the day, with defensive scores going both ways and the Vikings ran the opening kickoff back 105 yards for a TD. Both teams have a lot of work to do in a division that is still likely to be dominated by Green Bay.
• Broncos (-4) 41, Giants 23 - Peyton continued to dominate Eli in head-to-head matchups, but that overshadowed just how good this Denver squad looks so far. They are clicking on offense, defense, and special teams (Mr. X-Factor Trindon Holliday scores again). Meanwhile, we're really getting close to the heat being turned up on Tom Coughlin as my preseason prediction called for. One or two more games like this from the Giants, and then the run will start.

Picks We Both Lost (4)

• Chargers (+7½) 33, Eagles 30 - Well, we can cancel the coronation of Chip Kelly. That didn't last long.
• Saints 16, Bucs (+3) 14 - How, in todays NFL, does Josh Freeman manage to throw for 125 yards against the Saints defense. Freeman is regressing, and I'm suspecting that only a change of scenery will get him out of this funk.
• Cardinals (+1) 25, Lions 21 - Dre convinced me to change my pick here with the knowledge that Larry Fitzgerald was banged up. Seemed logical enough, until the Lions decided to contend with Tampa for Stupidest Team In Football and cough this one up. At least I didn't lose ground to Dre for my own stupidity.
• Bengals (-6½) 20, Steelers 10 - Should have stuck to my assessment from last week: the Steelers are done. They may have some fight left in them, just not much talent. Cincinnati is primed to win that division I am convinced, especially if Baltimore can't get their shit together.

Picks Dre Won Head to Head (3)

• Patriots 13, Jets (+12) 10 - I covered what a whiny bitch Tom Brady was on the podcast, but I will reiterate: Tom Brady was a whiny little bitch on Thursday night. When the Pats needed a cool head to help guide inexperienced receivers through a tough game, Brady decided the best thing to do to help them was yell at them, show them up, and mope on the sidelines. Classy. The Pats are another 2-0 team that's not been so impressive lately, but I'll save the best for last.
• Falcons (-5) 31, Rams 24 - In two weeks, both of the Falcons bugaboos have shown their ugly heads. Week 1 we got to see them not be able to finish under pressure, and here we got the other: the inability to put teams away. Atlanta ran out to a 21-0 lead, but instead of running away and hiding, they let the Rams chip their way back into the game, needing a late TD to extend the lead. Better to run into this now and work on it if the Falcons want to be considered elite.
• Chiefs 17, Cowboys (+3) 16 - I lost ATS, but was right on about KC winning this game. The Cowboys defense generated 6 less turnovers against KC than they did against the Giants. Unfortunately, the Giants turned it over 6 times. Andy Reid and Alex Smith may set offensive football back a generation with their Novocaine offense, but they will stick around in enough games that I picked them as one of my AFC Wild Card teams. Boring doesn't have to mean bad.

Picks I Won Head to Head (5)

• Dolphins (+1) 24, Colts 20 - Andrew Luck can't bring his team back in the 4th quarter of EVERY game. Who does he think he is? Jay Cutler? Nice get for Miami in Mike Wallace, think Pittsburgh wishes they still had him?
• Texans 30, Titans (+9) 24 - OT - Can't wait to hear Dres take on this game after her proclaimed the Texans as his LOCK OF THE WEEK!!! Houston also takes the crown as least impressive 2-0 team after needing miracle comebacks against San Diego and Tennessee, clearly the class of the NFL (sarcasm alert!).
• Bills (+3) 24, Panthers 23 - I sure needed that last second TD pass from E.J. Manuel, but I stand by my original thoughts on this game: How was Carolina a 3 point FAVORITE? I'm still shocked by this. What had Buffalo or Carolina done to swing this spread 6 points? Anyone?
• Raiders (-5½) 19, Jaguars 10 - As long as Dre wants to keep gifting me wins by taking Jacksonville, I will gladly accept.
• Seahawks (-3) 29, Niners 3 - Dre and I had a pretty good exchange about this game on the podcast. We clearly saw Seattle in a different light after they barely escaped Carolina with a 12-7 victory. I stuck with my original position on Seattle as being the superior team, and after the storms blew out of the Seattle area, the Seahakws proceeded to blow out the Niners. San Fran never mounted much of an effort against the Hawks and the 12th man, and established themselves as the class of the division.

Jason 9-7
Dre 7-9

I'm not comfortable with this big lead. Time to start blowing it soon.

2013 Week #2

I'm much more confident and excited about this week's games.  I'm trying not to overreact to the Week 1 happenings and analyzing things with a clear head, and I think I got my shit together.  It always helps when you win the Thursday nighter and get things off to a good start.  Here now, our picks.

Fav

Spread

Dog

Final

Dre

Jay

	Thu. Nite
NE (1-0)	12	NYJ (1-0)	NE 13-10		NY	NE
	Sunday
ATL (0-1)	5	StL (1-0)			Atl	StL
PHI (1-0)	7½	SD (0-1)			Phi	Phi
KC (1-0)	3	Dal (1-0)			Dal	KC
IND (1-0)	1	Mia (1-0)			Ind	Mia
HOU (1-0)	9	Tenn (1-0)			Hou	Tenn
GB (0-1)	9	Wash (0-1)			GB	GB
BAL (0-1)	6½	Cle (0-1)			Bal	Bal
Car (0-1)	3	BUF (0-1)			Car	Buf
CHI (1-0)	5½	Min (0-1)			Min	Min
NO (1-0)	3	TB (0-1)			NO	NO
Det (1-0)	1	ARIZ (0-1)			Det	Det
OAK (0-1)	5½	Jack (0-1)			Jack	Oak
Den (1-0)	4	NYG (0-1)			Den	Den
	Sun. Nite
SEA (1-0)	3	SF (1-0)			SF	Sea
	Mon. Nite
CIN (0-1)	6½	Pit (0-1)			Pit	Pit

Our thoughts and observations will be heard on the podcast, starting at 10P Central.  Don't miss it!