Week 2 ATS Recap: The Illusion of Success

Week 2 is historically a rough week here at IMLD. So for both of us to come in around the .500 mark on this weeks picks is definitely a victory. Dre was much more confident in his picks (after a 3 win week, how could he be worse?) and I was strangely unsure of mine after a 12-3-1 Week 1 performance. We went head to head on less games this week, and I even spotted Dre a win on Thursday night, but still managed to build on my 9 game lead in the standings. But as with all things after the second week, the picture we think we see is often not reality. Several teams jumped out to 2-0 starts, but are plainly not as good as that record would indicate, and as we go into the next few weeks, I suspect we will see the real teams rise to the top.

Picks We Both Won (4)

• Packers (-9) 38, Redskins 20 - The Packers ran out to a 31-0 lead on Washington, making the second straight week the Skins got down early, and coasted to the win. There is nothing of note in the garbage time play of RGIII, who has compiled some nice, meaningless stats the last two weeks. I'm not a big stat guy, but I will go to them for my continued assumption that RGIII should NOT be playing right now. Through two games, Griffin has rushed for a total of 25 yards, versus 124 yards over the same period last year. He is simply not a threat at the QB position without his wheels as teams don't even need to game plan for that part of his game at the moment.
• Ravens (-6½) 14, Browns 6 - We expected Baltimore to cover here, but all covers are not equal. This game was crap, and Baltimore should be ashamed for this effort in their first home game since winning the Super Bowl. So far, the champs have not impressed.
• Bears 31, Vikings (+5½) 30 - Here's Chicago, out first contender for least impressive 2-0 team. They wont take the title, but they are in the running. So far, the Bears have eked out wins at home against Cincinnati and Minnesota, nice wins for sure, but not necessarily impressive. The two teams combined for 7 turnovers on the day, with defensive scores going both ways and the Vikings ran the opening kickoff back 105 yards for a TD. Both teams have a lot of work to do in a division that is still likely to be dominated by Green Bay.
• Broncos (-4) 41, Giants 23 - Peyton continued to dominate Eli in head-to-head matchups, but that overshadowed just how good this Denver squad looks so far. They are clicking on offense, defense, and special teams (Mr. X-Factor Trindon Holliday scores again). Meanwhile, we're really getting close to the heat being turned up on Tom Coughlin as my preseason prediction called for. One or two more games like this from the Giants, and then the run will start.

Picks We Both Lost (4)

• Chargers (+7½) 33, Eagles 30 - Well, we can cancel the coronation of Chip Kelly. That didn't last long.
• Saints 16, Bucs (+3) 14 - How, in todays NFL, does Josh Freeman manage to throw for 125 yards against the Saints defense. Freeman is regressing, and I'm suspecting that only a change of scenery will get him out of this funk.
• Cardinals (+1) 25, Lions 21 - Dre convinced me to change my pick here with the knowledge that Larry Fitzgerald was banged up. Seemed logical enough, until the Lions decided to contend with Tampa for Stupidest Team In Football and cough this one up. At least I didn't lose ground to Dre for my own stupidity.
• Bengals (-6½) 20, Steelers 10 - Should have stuck to my assessment from last week: the Steelers are done. They may have some fight left in them, just not much talent. Cincinnati is primed to win that division I am convinced, especially if Baltimore can't get their shit together.

Picks Dre Won Head to Head (3)

• Patriots 13, Jets (+12) 10 - I covered what a whiny bitch Tom Brady was on the podcast, but I will reiterate: Tom Brady was a whiny little bitch on Thursday night. When the Pats needed a cool head to help guide inexperienced receivers through a tough game, Brady decided the best thing to do to help them was yell at them, show them up, and mope on the sidelines. Classy. The Pats are another 2-0 team that's not been so impressive lately, but I'll save the best for last.
• Falcons (-5) 31, Rams 24 - In two weeks, both of the Falcons bugaboos have shown their ugly heads. Week 1 we got to see them not be able to finish under pressure, and here we got the other: the inability to put teams away. Atlanta ran out to a 21-0 lead, but instead of running away and hiding, they let the Rams chip their way back into the game, needing a late TD to extend the lead. Better to run into this now and work on it if the Falcons want to be considered elite.
• Chiefs 17, Cowboys (+3) 16 - I lost ATS, but was right on about KC winning this game. The Cowboys defense generated 6 less turnovers against KC than they did against the Giants. Unfortunately, the Giants turned it over 6 times. Andy Reid and Alex Smith may set offensive football back a generation with their Novocaine offense, but they will stick around in enough games that I picked them as one of my AFC Wild Card teams. Boring doesn't have to mean bad.

Picks I Won Head to Head (5)

• Dolphins (+1) 24, Colts 20 - Andrew Luck can't bring his team back in the 4th quarter of EVERY game. Who does he think he is? Jay Cutler? Nice get for Miami in Mike Wallace, think Pittsburgh wishes they still had him?
• Texans 30, Titans (+9) 24 - OT - Can't wait to hear Dres take on this game after her proclaimed the Texans as his LOCK OF THE WEEK!!! Houston also takes the crown as least impressive 2-0 team after needing miracle comebacks against San Diego and Tennessee, clearly the class of the NFL (sarcasm alert!).
• Bills (+3) 24, Panthers 23 - I sure needed that last second TD pass from E.J. Manuel, but I stand by my original thoughts on this game: How was Carolina a 3 point FAVORITE? I'm still shocked by this. What had Buffalo or Carolina done to swing this spread 6 points? Anyone?
• Raiders (-5½) 19, Jaguars 10 - As long as Dre wants to keep gifting me wins by taking Jacksonville, I will gladly accept.
• Seahawks (-3) 29, Niners 3 - Dre and I had a pretty good exchange about this game on the podcast. We clearly saw Seattle in a different light after they barely escaped Carolina with a 12-7 victory. I stuck with my original position on Seattle as being the superior team, and after the storms blew out of the Seattle area, the Seahakws proceeded to blow out the Niners. San Fran never mounted much of an effort against the Hawks and the 12th man, and established themselves as the class of the division.

Jason 9-7
Dre 7-9

I'm not comfortable with this big lead. Time to start blowing it soon.