2010 Week #8

Here are the picks for a ghoulish Week 8.

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

SF (1-6)	1	Den (2-5)		London, ENG	Den	Den
KC (4-2)	7	Buf (0-6)			Buf	KC
DAL (1-5)	6½	Jack (3-4)			Dal	Dal
STL (3-4)	2½	Car (1-5)			Car	StL
CIN (2-4)	1	Mia (3-3)			Mia	Mia
DET (1-5)	2½	Wash (4-3)			Wash	Det
NYJ (5-1)	6	GB (4-3)			GB	NY
SD (2-5)	4	Tenn (5-2)			Tenn	Tenn
ARIZ(3-3)	3	TB (4-2)			TB	TB
NE (5-1)	5½	Min (2-4)			NE	NE
OAK(3-4)	2½	Sea (4-2)			Oak	Sea
	Sun. Nite
NO (4-3)	1	Pit (5-1)			Pit	NO
	Mon. Nite
IND (4-2)	5½	Hou (4-2)			Hou	Ind

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• Looking forward to seeing which league-wide trends continue this week.  Will it be the Year of the Ref Screw-Job, where officials find ways to rip victories out of the hands of deserving teams?  Or will it be the Year of the Stats Victory, where teams point to outgaining their opponents in yardage by a wide margin and try to take pride in winning the yardage game while losing the actual contest?
• How about Niners-Broncos for a great representation of the National Football League on an international scale?  Yuck.  Jason believes that the packaging of explosives meant to be sent from Yemen to America this week wasn't a terrorist attempt, but rather an effort to shut down air travel so that San Francisco and Denver couldn't make the trip to England and play this shitty game.  But it didn't work, unfortunately, as both planes made it to the U.K.  We'll take the Broncos to knock off Coach Psycho.
• I'm staying with the successful formula from last week of taking Buffalo to cover a big spread but not win the game, although they could have beaten Baltimore if not for a lucky bounce or two.  Jason has Kansas City steamrolling the Bills.
• As much as we hate the Cowboys, we'll give up the points and take Dallas to stomp Jacksonville, because that's how bad the Jaguars are, and because we're betting on a bounce for the Boys as they pick up the slack for a fallen teammate and rally around injured QB Tony Romo.  If they can't run the ball this week, with the flaccid Jags D and a desire to protect new QB Jon Kitna, then they may not win another game.
• I think I'm taking Carolina again only because I'm feeling prettay prettay prettay good about my upset pick last week of Panthers over 49ers.  Not a lot of folks with me on that pick I'm guessing.  I also like Matt Moore finding different people to throw to than Steve Smith, so I'll pick him to do it again versus a not-so-impressive Rams defense.  Jason is less than impressed with the Panthers.
• One of these days, I'm going to take the Cincinnati Bengals to beat someone.  I don't think they're one of the worst teams in the league, but I do think they're highly overrated, so I find myself picking against them every game because I believe that their opponent is a better team.  It applies this week too.  I believe Miami is a better overall team, and I have Jason on my side for this pick.  The Dolphins should win this one handily because they can dominate time of possession running the ball down the Bengals' throats and back it up with good pass play when needed.
• I similarly feel like Washington can dominate the Detroit Lions on the road by taking the air out of the ball with a solid running game.  From the first time I saw Ryan Torain run for the Redskins, I figured that he would be most effective rushing against not just a statistically weak run defense, but a physically weak team that would specifically wear down against a physical runner like Torain.  Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the Detroit Lions, 27th in the league against the run, getting gashed at 4.9 yards per carry, and ripe for an anal raping at the hands of Torain and the Skins.  Jason will hold true to his statement last week of Washington being the luckiest team in the league, and he will take Detroit off a bye.
• The New York Jets are also coming off a bye, and they continue a trend of being high-caliber opponents for the Green Bay Packers, who have had the Vikings, the Dolphins, and the Redskins the last three weeks.  Combine that with the Jets being at home, and Jason really likes New York for this tilt.  I foresee a huge game for Aaron Rodgers passing against the much ballyhooed Jets secondary, and a late high-scoring Packers victory.  Darrelle Revis may not be healthy just because his hamstring had two weeks to heal.  The hamstring doesn't know that it's supposed to be healed just because it had two weeks of rest.
• Jason loves the Titans over the Chargers, who are beat up and reeling and wondering how they can dominate stats in most of their games (SD is #1 in pass offense and pass defense) and still be only 2-5.  I say they will find a way to win this one just because they're due.  But I don't have confidence that they can find a way to win by more than a FG.
• We'll both take Radio Raheem Morris, the coach of the "best team in the NFC," the one and only Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  They're playing Arizona, who may be unpickable as long as they insist on sending out Max Hall as their QB.  Jason would like royalty pay from Josh Freeman, who's been getting free pub from Jason ever since the beginning of last year, when he opened the Josh Freeman Fan Club, which still has only one member.  Jason did indeed say that of all the QBs from last year's draft, he liked Freeman the best.  Turns out he was only a year ahead.
• And we'll both go with the Patriots to beat Brett Favre and his ankle fractures and fragments.  Whatever inside info Randy Moss could provide the Vikings on his old team, it won't help them actually stop New England from going up and down the field.
• Two teams playing way above their heads, coming off big wins last week...I'll take Oakland after they savaged the Broncos in Denver, and Jason will go with Seattle, who smothered Arizona.
• On Halloween Night, Jason will pick the Saints to wake up the ghosts and bounce back from that embarrassing beating Cleveland handed them last week.  (That punter run the Browns pulled off is the Play of the Year so far, though.)  I'll take the Steelers in a very close, fun matchup.  Their running game should provide enough of a cushion to ward off any late New Orleans black magic.
• I'll walk the tightrope on Monday night and take the Houston Texans, with their beast of a RB Arian Foster, to keep it close against the Indianapolis Colts and cover 5½.  Feels like a huge score with lots of back-and-forth scoring.  I'll call it 41-37.  Jason thinks the Colts will get spooked at the thought of starting 0-3 in their division and two games in back of the Texans, and will put on a prime time show to win by at least a TD.

Week 7 ATS Recap: The Joy of Alt+0189

Dre was leaving for vacation on Saturday, so we did our weekly picks on Friday night instead of our usual Saturday night. Dre complained about how ill prepared he was with his stats and breakdowns for the week and was going to lower himself to my level by picking games "out of his ass." So of course Dre went 10-4 for week, while I hustled for a 5-9. But fear not avid reader (all 3 or 4 of you), I'm sure Dre will be back breaking down yards-per-attempt and 3rd quarter YAC (OK I made that one up) this weekend.

• Browns 30, Saints 13 - Both losers - The theme of the year so far seems to be teams that completely dominate the stat sheet finding a way to lose games and lose them big. Of course, when you allow the opposing teams punter to outrush the other 3 running backs to play in the game all in one play, you deserve to lose. Nice one Saints. This is not an impressive 4-3 the Saints have put up, and they get the Steelers next week. Uh oh.
• Chiefs 42, Jaguars 20 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Past the theme of the year, the theme of Week 7 was picks that looked great until the 4th quarter started. The Jags played way over their heads until late in the 3rd quarter before the Chiefs decided to put 21 unanswered points and run away in this one. Dre is convinced that the Chiefs downturn is ready to start any moment now, but they are contending in the vastly superior AFC.
• Titans 37, Eagles 19 - Dre winner, Jason loser - The Eagles held the Titans offense in check for 3+ quarters and even knocked Vince Young out of yet another game. Down 19-10 with 13 minutes to go, the Titans went all Chiefs on the Cheesesteaks and put up 27 unanswered points, including 10 points in the last half minute as a final little "shove that up your ass" to yours truly for picking against them again.
• Falcons 39, Bengals 32 - Dre loser, Jason winner - My Falcons will save me! This pick looked automatic, but in this week of late combacks and ridiculous 2nd half scoring, not even this one went smoothly. Down 3 touchdowns, the Bengals behind Carson Palmer (?!?!?!) managed to squeak ahead at 25-24 midway through the 4th quarter. Atlanta quickly went all Chiefs on Cincy, scoring 2 late TDs to seal it before the Bengals managed a late garbage time TD.
• DeAngelo Hall 17, Bears 14 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Jay Cutler said he would continue to throw at the man who had 4 interceptions against him, tying the all-time mark. Of course he would. Without those 4 picks, the Bears actually had a chance to win the game. The Skins did nothing memorable on offense unless you count McNabb's own pick-6 that the-guy-I-thought-was-Mike Brown took back to the house. There's trouble in Chi-town as the Martz-Cutler experiment continues to fail behind the weakest offensive line that's not in Dallas. Meanwhile, the Skins have now taken over luckiest team in the league duties away from Atlanta.
• Stealers 23, Dolphins 22 - Dre winner, Jason loser - So Bathroom Ben fumbles the game away right into a pile of Dolphins in the end zone, one of whom emerges from the pile with the ball. So of course the refs couldn't tell who recovered the ball, not under ALL THE DOLPHINS LAYING ON TOP OF IT. So yes, while Rapelisberger came a foot from giving me the ATS win, I can't help but feel for yet another team jobbed by the refs.
• Bucs 18, Rams 17 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Here was Dre's second ATS win of the week via teams that won, but couldn't cover THREE FUCKING POINTS! That being said, I must fulfill my duties as President and Sole Member of the Josh Freeman Fan Club by mentioning that my boy Josh managed another late game comeback to propel the Bucs past the Rams and Dre's new buddy Sam Bradford.
• Ravens 37, Bills 34 (OT) - Both winners - The Ravens escaped with one here. The Bills managed to dominate the stat sheet, but they also managed to lose the turover battle, and the veteran Ravens did just enough to win. I hope the Bills aren't watching the last few games of Ryan Fitzpatrick and thinking they have solved their gaping QB hole. Two words for Buffalo: Scott Mitchell. I accused the Ravens of not being able to score 13, but if you had told me they would have put up 37, I would have figured this as a slam dunk cover. Where'd the pass D go in Baltimore?
• Panthers 23, Niners 20 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Surely the 49ers would build off their first win of the season. They told us they were still going to win the division, right? Nothing like heading to winless Carolina to get some reps in and start working on a winning streak, right? Unfortunately, Matt Moore and some guy named David Gettis (125 yards receiving, 2TD's) didn't get the memo. Gettis is bound to now be another kneejerk fantasy pickup. Good luck with that.
• Seahawks 22, Cardinals 10 - Both losers - The Seahawks have been automatic at home. So of course we both picked the Cards.
• Raiders 59, Broncos 14 - Dre loser, Jason winner - Sadly, I don't get points for margin of victory. I think I covered this one by more points combined than all of Dre's other wins over me this week. Air Orton had no chance this week, as his first pass of the game was a pick-6 and the Raiders had 31 points two minutes into the 2nd quarter.
• Patriots 23, Chargers 20 - Both winners - Pats as 3 point dogs going into the collapsing Chargers? In the immortal words of Darth Vader: "All too easy."
• Packers 28, Vikings 24 - Dre winner, Jason loser - The NFL apologized to Brad Childress for the ineptitude of the officiating crew that worked the game. Who apologized to Chilly about his 41 year old sexting QB tossing 3 picks to the Packers and fracturing his ankle in the process? The Vikings are in jeopardy of being Brady Quinn done while the Packers managed to escape in unimpressive style staring down a contest at the Jets. Any Packers not the IR prior to that game may be after it. The IR count for the Pack: 9!
• Giants 41, Cowboys 35 - Both winners - Speaking of Brady Quinn Done.....Tony Romo broke his collarbone! Jon Kitna isn't dead! Dez Bryant is pretty good! Too bad the Cowboys have no defense and no offensive line. The Giants put the nail in the coffin of the 2010 Boys. Excuse me while I laugh unmercifully....HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA SUCKAS!

Well, Dre kicked my ass this week. But I fear not, for his stats will soon return.

2010 Week #7

Very quick preview of Week 7 as I prepare for a trip:

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

NO (4-2)	13	Cle (1-5)			NO	NO
KC (3-2)	9½	Jack (3-3)			KC	Jack
TENN(4-2)	3	Phi (4-2)			Tenn	Phi
ATL (4-2)	3½	Cin (2-3)			Cin	Atl
CHI (4-2)	3	Wash (3-3)			Wash	Chi
Pit (4-1)	3	MIA (3-2)			Mia	Pit
TB (3-2)	3	StL (3-3)			StL	TB
BAL (4-2)	13	Buf (0-5)			Buf	Buf
SF (1-5)	2	CAR (0-5)			Car	SF
SEA (3-2)	6½	Ariz (3-2)			Ariz	Ariz
DEN (2-4)	9	Oak (2-4)			Den	Oak
SD (2-4)	3	NE (4-1)			NE	NE
	Sun. Nite
GB (3-3)	2½	Min (2-3)			GB	Min
	Mon. Nite
DAL (1-4)	3	NYG (4-2)			NY	NY

Some of our brief thoughts and observations included:

• More Colt McCoy plus a newly focused Saints team should equal pain for the Browns.
• Jason can't pass up taking all those points with the Jaguars even if it means he might be riding with Trent Edwards at QB.  That's enough to scare me into taking the Chiefs.
• Jason likes the red hot Eagles and QB Kevin Kolb.  It looks like I have to hang on with Kerry Collins at QB if I take the Titans over Philly, but that's how much I fear the Eagles will drop off in offensive production without WR DeSean Jackson, who doesn't remember his name or anything else and won't play Sunday.
• My dislike of the Falcons continues as I take the overrated Bengals to go into Atlanta and steal an upset win.  The Falcons pass D can give up big plays, even to fossils like Chad Johnson and Terrell Owens.  Jason loves the Falcons, who are a very strong home team.
• I can't take the Bears over the Redskins after that dismal effort they put forth against the Seahawks.  Plus, I think Washington may be poised to make a run because their early season schedule has been pretty tough, and Chicago doesn't measure up to the Colts or the Eagles or the Texans, who have all played Washington thus far.  And, I think Donovan McNabb usually has big days against his hometown team.  Jason will go with the Bears just because.
• I'm picking the Dolphins to upset the Steelers because Miami's passing offense has steadily improved this year, and I think they can have a big day against Pittsburgh since the run game won't be easy.  I can't blame Jason for taking Pitt, who's playing as well as anyone in the league.  But I'm playing a hunch.
• I now declare myself on the Sam Bradford Bandwagon, and I shall crush it as I have all others in the past, beginning with picking him and the Rams to win on the road at Tampa.  Jason likes the Bucs.
• We're both scared of the big Buf-Bal line, so we'll take the points.  I think Buffalo can stay close coming off a bye.  Jason reverts back to his old saying about big Baltimore spreads:  They can't cover 13 if they can't score 13.
• Jason will go with Coach Psycho over the Panthers.  I have actual reasons why I like Carolina over San Francisco.  Matt Moore is back at QB for the Panthers, which isn't a big celebratory fact in and of itself, but it means that Jimmy Clausen isn't playing, and that's great news for Car.  Plus, Steve Smith returns from injury for the Cats.
• Jason will take the points as Arizona goes into Seattle as a near TD dog.  Seattle makes so little sense that coming off their big win at Chicago, I'll take the Cards coming off a bye to knock them off and win straight up at Qwest Field.
• More big points for Jason as he takes the Raiders to cover at Denver.  I can't possibly go with Kyle Boller, who is likely to start at QB for Oakland.
• We're both fairly confident in the Patriots at San Diego because the Chargers are playing like shit, plus half of their eligible receivers are either going to play hurt or sit out.
• I'm not confident at all in taking the Packers over the Vikings, but I must, thanks to the Brett Favre Rule.  I am fearful that Minnesota might be gearing up for a run, starting with last week versus Dallas.  Jason sees another big lead for the Pack frittered away because they can't sustain a running game to put opponents away.
• Speaking of the Boys, we don't know why they're favored over the Giants, and we don't think it's going to be close.  Giants Monday night squoosh.

2010 Week 6: What I Learned

• Lemme get this right:  Jason and I differed on three picks.  I won one pick by a half point.  Jason won one pick by a half point after I had the lead with under a minute to go.  On the third pick, we pushed.  Can it possibly be a closer week than that?  It's been about the goofiest year of picking that I've ever seen and we're only six weeks through.  Crazy.
• Phi 31, Atl 17--Atlanta's lucky streak did end, as Jason correctly predicted.  I don't know if I expected quite the performance that we got from Eagles QB Kevin Kolb in Philly's blowout win, and neither did Philly's head coach, Andy Reid.  Reid laughed and giggled through the postgame presser as he commented on the problem with having a healthy Michael Vick ready to play QB again, forcing Reid to choose between him and the now red-hot Kolb:  "It's a positive thing, a positive, positive thing."  Translation:  I'm trying to talk myself into being happy that I have to make a choice that will paint me as a dumbfuck and a villain the moment we lose another game.  Fuck.  Fuck fuck fuck.
• Pit 28, Cle 10--Nothing new coming out of the Cle-Pit game.  The Steelers won thanks to a tough defense and a passing game reliant on big downfield strikes.  QB Ben Roethlisberger only completed 16 passes, but three of them were scores and he racked up 257 yards.  Most of Browns QB Colt McCoy's 281 yards came in garbage time.  Steelers squoosh.  Next.
• Sea 23, Chi 20--Wow, are the Chicago Bears in trouble.  They insist on running an offensive scheme predicated on blocking for their QB while he takes long drops back into the pocket and waits for his idiot receivers to figure out where they're supposed to run.  Meanwhile, the blocking sucks, the breakdown lets the pass rushers get to the QB, and he gets rocked.  That was six more sacks for Jay Cutler Sunday, totaling 15 in his last two games.  Fifteen sacks in his last two games!  Fathom how that must feel for a second.  The Bears have no chance at success against teams that can mount any kind of pass rush unless they make quick adjustments like they did in the Dallas win in Week 2.  As for Seattle, give them credit for taking advantage of the opponent's glaring weaknesses such as the Chargers special teams and the Bears offensive line.  Let's see them win games on their own merits in the future.
• NYG 28, Det 20--The Detroit Lions just will not say uncle and give up in any game.  The starting QB, Shaun Hill, breaks his arm in the 2nd quarter, forcing Det to go to Drew Stanton, who I thought was still on the roster just because someone in the front office liked him from his playing days at Michigan State.  But Stanton almost led the Lions to a comeback victory.  Only a couple of 4th-quarter turnovers stopped potential winning or tying drives.  Dare I say that the Lions are a must pick when they're large underdogs?  The Giants got the big plays rushing and throwing that I said they would, but the D couldn't contain WR Calvin Johnson and the great Drew Stanton, and the cover was not to be.  I hope that angers them and they take a pissed-off attitude to Dallas on Monday night to bury the Cowboys once and for all.
• NE 23, Bal 20, OT--Baltimore was smothering New England and well on their way to another win in Foxboro to complement the ass-whupping they gave the Patriots in the playoffs last year.  But QB Tom Brady got the new no-name offense in gear and led an impressive comeback OT win.  What was Seattle doing with WR Deion Branch that they couldn't get this kind of production in four years?  He went for 98 yards and a score on nine catches, many coming in the 4th quarter and OT, when Brady got a no-huddle offense ignited to lead the comeback against the Ravens D.  New England will be a tantalizing play the rest of the way because of the spark Brady and this spread offense can provide.  They won't break records like they did with Randy Moss, but they will continue to be prolific.
• StL 20, SD 17--How big of a pile of steaming excrement is the San Diego Chargers squad?  They didn't just lose by three to the St. Louis Rams and, grr, Sam Bradford.  They were actually down 17-0 in the 2nd quarter.  Bradford again looked like an NFL quarterback, which continues to puzzle me.  But let me give props to the reason the Chargers couldn't complete the comeback--drives that stalled thanks to six sacks by St. Louis down linemen.  Watch for them to make plays the rest of the way, especially the very talented duo of James Hall and Chris Long.  They're going to make life tough for any QB down early in a game trying to lead a charge back, because Hall and Long can pin their eyes back (thanks again Desmond Howard) and rush the passer all day.  SD special teams watch:  K Nate Kaeding had a FG attempt blocked because he slipped.  On turf.  Indoors.
• Mia 23, GB 20, OT--Lack of defensive studs Clay Matthews, Nick Barnett, and DBs Atari Bigby and Al Harris, who both have been missing all year, caught up to the Green Bay Packers and contributed to their home loss to the Miami Dolphins.  But the offensive line really doomed them, as Miami had their way with QB Aaron Rodgers, knocking him around all day.  Cameron Wake is a man to watch on the Dolphins D-line.  He's developed into a very dangerous pass-rushing threat.
• NO 31, TB 6--Yeah, about that Tampa Bay upset pick over the New Orleans Saints.  That was a royal fuck-up by both me and Jason, although he actually didn't have the Buccaneers to win.  Not much to break down here.  The Saints were pissed off coming off the bad loss to Arizona, and they got off on the Bucs.  Is the offense finally back to their bad selves from last season?
• Hou 35, KC 31--What an impressive display of flag football tackling in the Chiefs-Texans game.  Any time a ball carrier got close to a defender, no actual tackle was attempted.  Instead, the defender ran next to the ball carrier for a couple of strides, seemingly mimicking the actions of ripping a flag from the side of the runner, then peeled off and let the runner continue down the field.  Nothing really to break down here, either.  Both teams scored at will, the Texans scored several times in a row late to come back from down double digits, and the last team to score won, which happened to be the Texans.  It's pure luck that I won the pick once the dust cleared.  But expect their run defense to be even worse the rest of the year, because their monster LB DeMeco Ryans, always good for 100 tackles a year as he stops RBs after they break through the defensive line, tore his Achilles in this game.
• NYJ 24, Den 20--And karma immediately came back to bite me in the ass.  I lost this pick only because QB Mark Sanchez, flushed from the pocket with about a minute left in the game and his Jets down 3 to the Broncos, flung a Hail Mary on 4th down and allowed his WR to be interfered with, setting up a 1st-and-goal at the 2, which resulted in a rushing TD and extra point.  It was the luckiest play I've seen in a long time.  The ball was underthrown, but the receiver wasn't allowed to come back to the ball and try to make a play because the defender reached back and grabbed his facemask before the ball got there.  Legit call, but complete luck that the defender decided to do something that stupid.  The Denver running attack was total garbage coming into the game, so credit coach Josh McDaniels and the coordinators with committing to the run all game long.  Seven, yes, seven different men carried the ball for the Broncos, including Jesus himself, Tim Tebow, who scored a rushing TD.  Den ran for over 100 yards as a team and provided some balance for Air Orton and the passing game.  But that last pass interference play ruined the day for Den, and more importantly, ruined my pick.
• SF 17, Oak 9--Seriously, who thought it was a good idea to make San Francisco a 7-point favorite over the Oakland Raiders?  Come on!  As I totally predicted, the Raiders and QB Jason Campbell outplayed and outhustled the 49ers, taking advantage of a road crowd rooting for them and proving the Vegas handicappers wrong.  I had this one all the way!  Huh?  Oh.  Campbell sucked donkey balls and Niners QB Alex Smith was horrible until the 2nd half when it mattered?  And SF covered by a fucking point?  I see.  *Starts weeping*
• Min 24, Dal 21--Once again, the Dallas Cowboys played like little boys.  Undisciplined, unfocused, and inventing new ways to incur penalties.  Seriously, another TD celebration penalty after you got one last week?  Really??  And you lost both games?  Eleven penalties for 91 yards in this game helped sink the Boys.  And I didn't get what they were trying to do at all on offense.  QB Tony Romo dumped off passes all day to running backs on swing passes and screens, seemingly scared as hell to take shots down the field.  That was 15 catches for Dal RBs on the day for those counting.  Didn't make any sense.  May have worked against a team that couldn't come back late, but that's all Brett Favre has done his whole career.  Min outscored Dal 17-7 in the 2nd half.
• Ind 27, Wash 24--This was a fun game to watch.  The surgeon Peyton Manning slices and dices the Washington defense, running an offensive game plan that didn't allow the Redskins to substitute defenders because Peyton had the Colts at the line of scrimmage ready to execute the next play right after the previous play was done.  They were able to run the ball a little as well, keeping the Skins D off balance, and the 27 points at the end was enough for an Indy win.  But Donovan McNabb didn't let Peyton have the spotlight all to himself, rallying Wash to within a FG with some impressive QB work of his own.  The last Wash drive resulted in what Jason will recognize as the patented McNabb Garbage Time Touchdown (TM), making the point spread a push and salvaging the week as a push instead of me losing ground.  An aspect of the game worth noting was the Wash running success with Ryan Torain, which didn't come immediately.  His punishing style wore down Indy late, and it showed what can happen to the undersized Colts D-line when a beastly RB pounds on them throughout the contest.
• Tenn 30, Jack 3--Props to anyone who watched this dreadful game all the way through.  The only thing I thought was interesting was how Tennessee kept slamming their diminutive RB Chris Johnson into the Jaguars D late in the 4th quarter when the backup RBs should have been getting the rock and putting the game away.  Yes, Johnson eventually broke a long TD run to go over 100 yards for the game, but that made the score 30-3.  Totally unnecessary.  When Johnson is banged up late in the season and missing key games for the Titans as they compete for a playoff spot, remember games like this, when he took unneeded shot after unneeded shot in pursuit of meaningless yards and TDs.

Week 6 Records--Dre & Jay 6-7-1, .462
YTD Records--Dre & Jay 43-46-1, .483

A Programming Note

Jason's recap will be unavailable for Week 6, as he is on vacation with his fiancee.  Look for my What I Learned column tomorrow evening.

2010 Week #6

Here are our eerily congruent picks for Week 6.

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

PHI (3-2)	1 1/2	Atl (4-1)			Phi	Phi
PIT (3-1)	13 1/2	Cle (1-4)			Pit	Pit
CHI (4-1)	6	Sea (2-2)			Chi	Chi
NYG (3-2)	10	Det (1-4)			NY	NY
NE (3-1)	2 1/2	Bal (4-1)			Bal	Bal
SD (2-3)	9	STL (2-3)			StL	StL
GB (3-2)	3	Mia (2-2)			Mia	Mia
NO (3-2)	4	TB (3-1)			TB	TB
HOU (3-2)	4 1/2	KC (3-1)			KC	Hou
NYJ (4-1)	3 1/2	DEN (2-3)			Den	NY
SF (0-5)	7	Oak (2-3)			Oak	Oak
MIN (1-3)	1	Dal (1-3)			Dal	Dal
		Sun. Nite
Ind (3-2)	3	WASH (3-2)			Wash	Ind
		Mon. Nite
Tenn (3-2)	3	JACK (3-2)			Tenn	Tenn

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• It's never ever good when we agree on so many picks.  I have many stats about our picks that I want to look up whenever I find the notebooks from the past 10 years or so, but one of them is what our records are in weeks where we disagree on three or less games.  We're only different on three this week, and I don't think there's any way we could possibly be over .500.  It just never works that way.  I thought I was going to hit Jason with some wacky picks, only to listen to him take the exact same picks for the exact same reasons.
• Jason believes that his beloved Falcons have gotten many lucky breaks this year, and that shit ends today.  I agree, even though their opponents, the Eagles, are playing a worse option at QB, Kevin Kolb, than they have in reserve, Michael Vick.  But Kolb showed me a little something last week, and I will actually pick him to make less mistakes than Atlanta's Matt Ryan.  I see a late INT by Philly sealing the deal.
• Big spreads are always scary, but at least with this one, I made up my mind as soon as I knew who the participants were.  It's the daunting Pittsburgh defense coming off a bye against rookie QB Colt McCoy and the woebegone Cleveland Browns.  I have vivid memories of McCoy sucking big time at the U. of Texas, and I can't imagine he got better over the last few months.  Plus, he's facing the Steelers.  Plus, who the fuck is he supposed to be throwing to?  Yeah, we like Pittsburgh huge in Rapelisberger's return.  Hope Big Ben doesn't celebrate in the Favre cell phone tradition.
• I've heard some football "experts" peg the Chicago Bears as the luckiest team so far this season.  I don't know if that's true, but I certainly didn't expect them to be 4-1.  And today they get their QB Jay Cutler back, and they get to face a West Coast team traveling to the Windy City playing a noon game who have not performed at all in their two road games this year.  It all combines to lead me to pick the Bears straight up and against the spread for the first time this year.  So you know what's gonna happen.  Seahawks blow out Da Bears.  Always seems to work that way.
• Jason compared the run that the New York Giants have gone on to the Incredible Hulk.  Ever since the pathetic display against Tennessee in Week 3, Tom Coughlin's coaching angry, the D line is sacking angry, Hakeem Nicks is catching angry...you wouldn't like the Giants when they're angry.  We like the Giants to keep it up against Detroit despite what the Lions did to the Rams last week.  This ain't the Rams.  And I have a statistical edge to cite for this pick as well (not that my stats mean a damn thing).  I like to slot big offenses and weak defenses this way:  If you gain 4.5 yards per rush or 7.5 yards per pass attempt, you're a big offense, and if you give up 4.5 yards per rush or 7.5 yards per pass play, you're a weak defense.  I can't recall the last time I saw a perfect matching of a big offense and weak defense in both categories.  Giants O: 4.5 yards per carry, 7.5 yards per pass play.  Lions D gives up: 4.8 yards per carry, 7.6 yards per pass play.  Makes the Giants a total lock, right?  Right?!
• Neither of us is daunted by the mad genius Bill Belichick having an extra week to prepare his New England Pats for the Baltimore Ravens.  He still traded his best WR for nothing and replaced him with a shorter, slower player (Randy Moss out, Deion Branch in).  He's still sending out a worse team on paper than the team that got anally reamed by the Ravens in the playoffs last year.  And Ravens RB Ray Rice may be back to form, opening up the passing game for Joe Flacco and his weapons.  We really like Baltimore here, but I'll be watching closely to see what Belichick can do with this weaker offense.  It's possible that he and QB Tom Brady desire a more wide-open attack where no defense knows who's catching what pass, and they think they can make it work better than the record-setting numbers they put up with Moss.  Time will tell.
• I HATE SAM BRADFORD.  Yet I will take the Rams to cover 9 at home against the thoroughly unimpressive Chargers.  We don't have St. Louis winning, but that number is way too high.  Jason points out that every time Philip Rivers and that unstoppable San Diego offense scores, they must kick the ball back to the Rams, and that's where St. Louis can stay close.  As we've seen, special teams coverage has been a bit of an issue for the Bolts this year.
• We do both have the Dolphins coming off a bye and going into Cheesehead Land, where injuries are starting to really pile up.  The lackluster Green Bay offense now has a woozy QB trying to stay upright and call the signals, and on D, their horrible run defense will go against a fresh Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams.  I see Miami winning a close high-scoring game, and Jason sees the Fish by at least a TD.
• Jason will go with his favorite QB of all time, Josh Freeman, to keep it close against the New Orleans Saints.  I'll go with the Bucs for the win.  Tampa's weakest link is their run defense, but the Saints have no healthy RBs left to take advantage of them.  Smells like a 19-17 late FG win to me.
• Finally, a game we disagree on.  I know I called Kansas City coach Todd Haley a dumbass last week, but presuming he learned his lesson and won't try some fancy shit, he's got the athletes to beat the Houston Texans on the road, and I'll take the Chefs one last time before I leap off their bandwagon.  I also like QB Matt Cassel to remember how to play the position and put up nice numbers on the Texans, who have by far the worst pass defense in all of football.  Jason thinks the dream is over for the Chiefs, and I can easily see them collapsing off of the draining loss to Indy.  But I think Houston can be had.  They appear to be totally out of sync.
• I like Denver and Air Orton to cover that 3 1/2 point spread at home against the Jets, who I think are still overrated.  Jason wants to get the annual Broncos deflation started now, but I'll hold off a little while on that.  They're always tough at home, and they should keep up the aerial attack because the Jets' best cover man, Darrelle Revis, is still clutching his hamstring from several weeks ago.
• This might be the most incredible spread I've ever seen.  Jason and I are at a complete loss as to why the winless San Francisco 49ers, still coached by an insane person, are a touchdown fav against anybody, much less the Oakland Raiders, who are coming off a big win over the Chargers and aren't a horrible team, like, I don't know, the winless San Francisco 49ers.  Hell, we like Oakland to win, especially knowing that Jason Campbell will go at QB instead of the impotent Bruce Gradkowski.  Jason also points out that it's not like the Raiders have to gear up for a grueling road trip in order to play this game.  It's right across the fucking bay.  I wonder what this spread would be if the game were in Oakland.
• I know how Brett Favre got that tendonitis in his right elbow, and it wasn't throwing a football.  Hey, you gotta know how to drive that stick shift in order to get those disgusting cell phone pics just right.  Jason says that the pics apparently give new meaning to "Brett Favre Watch," considering the watch that he's been prominently shown wearing to interviews and multiple retirement pressers is also shown on his wrist in the cock pics he sent to Jenn Sterger.  We have no reason to like the Vikings against the Cowboys.  Whatever the opposite of team cohesion is, that's Minnesota right now, and even dysfunctional Dallas should come in and beat them, er, knock them off.
• I admit that it's difficult to go against Peyton Manning and the Colts for me.  I'm his biggest fan, as evidenced by some of my prior writing.  But Indy's already 1-2 on the road this year, including an embarrassing loss to Jacksonville, and I think the Redskins are a way better team than Jacksonville.  There's only so far a one-dimensional offense can take you, and I think the lack of a running game on the road against Washington will cost Indy another game.  My slurping of Peyton and picking the Colts as my Super Bowl champ was dependent on a sliver of a running game to balance things out, but as long as Joseph Addai can't get in gear and Donald Brown can't get out of the trainer's room, the Colts will struggle to score as they did last week.
• Speaking of the Jaguars, we will go against the Jags at home against Tennessee.  We have learned our lesson about doubting the Almighty Vince Young.  He can do anything He puts his mind to, as long as Chris Johnson can run the ball effectively, which he should do against Jacksonville's bad D.  This seems like a great spot for David Garrard to fling a late pick to clinch the close win for the Titans, and hopefully the Titans lead at that point will be more than 3.

2010 Week 5: What I Learned

• I'd love to know who's doing great picking ATS this year, because that person must have serious insider information.  I even managed to go 3-11 picking straight up this past week.  That's about as bad as it gets.
• Buffalo's horrible defense coughed up another one, this time against the Jaguars.  Ryan Fitzpatrick looked competent at QB for the Bills, guiding them to a 13-3 lead, but Buffalo in the end gave up 30 or more points for the 4th straight game.  They're working hard on securing that #1 pick in next year's draft.
• Kansas City's coach, Todd Haley, is stupid.  Really stupid.  The Chiefs had to kick off to the Colts to start their game, but Haley thought it would be a good idea to onside kick instead.  Nope, didn't work.  Indy took advantage of the shortened field and scored on the 1st possession.  The very next series, the Chiefs' 1st, ended with no points when they went for it on 4th and 2 from the Indy 8-yard line instead of taking the damn FG.  Kids, this is called setting the tone for your team.  When you go against the percentages right out of the gate, you tell your squad that you don't believe they can win the game playing straight up against the other team.  Haley and KC just showed why they won't win consistently anytime soon--because with their gimmicks and "gutsy" calls, they display that they don't think they're ready.
• Carson Palmer continues to play erratically for the Cincinnati Bengals.  His 3rd and final INT allowed Tampa Bay to drive for the game-winning FG and the road win.  That wiped out even a turn-back-the-clock rushing day for Cin RB Cedric Benson.  If getting Ced to run hard again ain't enough, what's left for the Bungles to do?
• You can't have much high of a panic level for Green Bay than where they are right now.  They're behind the Bears in their division, they pulled defeat from the jaws of victory Sunday against Washington, and their star QB Aaron Rodgers got his head bounced.  There were a lot of defensive injuries for the Packers coming into the game, and they incurred more during the contest.  As a result, Donovan McNabb was able to hit some huge pass plays and lead the Redskins to the comeback win.  Keep that in mind for the Pack in the future--it may not be the concussion to their signal caller that puts them in jeopardy for big losses, it may be the unraveling of their defense.
• I HATE SAM BRADFORD!!!
• And any true football fan had to hate the quality of QB play in the Carolina-Chicago debacle.  All I took from this game is that Carolina has the worst offense in the league.  Their highly rated rushing attack from last year has vanished, and none of their QBs could hit an ocean if they were throwing from the beach.
• Can it be this easy to beat the Houston Texans?  After all the hype and early-season love, did the Giants show that you can handle Houston the same way that it's always been?  New York took advantage of the Texans' atrocity of a secondary, then got to rush the passer because Houston had to throw to come back, allowing their ferocious front four to force turnovers on QB Matt Schaub and render him ineffective.  Seems so simple after the fact.
• Both Baltimore and Denver had success in the air, Kyle Orton with another 300-yard passing day, and Joe Flacco going for 196 himself.  What was the difference?  The Ravens had a running game as a complement.  They ran for 233 yards.  Denver ran for 39.  Ray Rice picked a good day to show up.
• My Cleveland Browns pick over the Atlanta Falcons had a chance, until the horror show that is Jake Delhomme doomed the Browns.  Seneca Wallace was having a decent game at QB until he got knocked out of the game, forcing the Human Interception Machine, Delhomme, onto the field.  The result:  13-23-97 yards, 2 INT.  The rest is history.  I'm having a hard time remembering this many quarterbacks in the league at one time who need to retire immediately--Delhomme, Todd Collins, Matt Moore, Derek Anderson, Alex Smith, maybe Carson Palmer and Brett Favre too.  That's a lot of suck.
• And I won't put Arizona rookie QB Max Hall in that company after one game, but suffice to say that the Cardinals didn't beat the Saints thanks to his play.  Yes, that was 17-27-168 and no TDs for the winning QB.  And it's a comeback win credited to him too, because New Orleans was up 10 in the 2nd quarter and feeling pretty pretty good, I imagine.  Then the goofiest shit started happening.  Hall gets crucified on a scramble and fumbles, and the ball bounces right to an offensive lineman, who runs it in for a TD.  Another Hall fumble was gathered by a lineman for a 10-yard gain.  Saints RB Ladell Betts coughs up the ball a couple of times, once for a Cards defensive TD.  Drew Brees throws a pick-6 trying to lead the game-winning drive for NO.  Basically, all the bounces went the Cardinals' way.  And that's why New Orleans outgained Arizona by 150 yards and lost by double digits.  I wouldn't count on that happening again if I were Arizona.
• Yes, Vince Young, a.k.a. God, smote Jason and me for doubting Him.  But the real story is, simply, the smarter, better-coached team won in the Titans-Cowboys game.  The costly interceptions by QB Tony Romo, the idiotic penalties, the lack of calm and composure--this is the effort the Cowboys put forth coming off a bye?? I'm still predicting a Wade Phillips firing and Jerry Jones stepping in as head coach before the season's done.
• And speaking of bad coaching, oh, those Chargers special teams.  What's special about two blocked punts in the 1st quarter?  The Raiders took a 9-0 lead thanks to those blocks, but the better team rallied to go ahead in the 2nd half.  But then someone came in at QB and led Oakland back into the lead.  Someone talented.  Someone impressive.  Someone poised.  Someone who fucking started the first couple of games before being benched for a journeyman who got knocked out of this game.  Raiders coach Tom Cable was forced to go to Jason Campbell at QB after Bruce Gradkowski was injured.  All Campbell did was go 13-18-159 and a TD.  All Cable did was say after the game that Gradkowski was still his QB.  Tom Cable has the IQ of an acorn.
• And Coach Psycho and his unprepared, undisciplined 49ers find another way to lose.  Alex Smith looked so lost at QB for San Francisco that the crowd was chanting for David Carr, who couldn't play his way out of a paper bag in Houston ages ago.  Nothing to see here.  Move along.
• The Little Wrangler soared at times in his Monday night spotlight game, but ultimately failed.  What I was struck by was Brett Favre's unending personal crusade to make people believe that he's a put-upon victim of circumstance who deserves pity.  He deserves none, of course.  His wife Deanna may deserve some pity if it turns out that she's blind and stupid, but I wouldn't be surprised if she knows that Favre fucks around and just lets him in order to keep reaping the benefits of being Mrs. Brett Favre.  Brett started Monday by tearfully apologizing to his team, the Minnesota Vikings, for having the Jenn Sterger drama serve as a distraction for the past week.  Um, where is his apology to Sterger for sexting her pics of his dick?!?  I guess in his world, it's much more important to make amends with the guys for letting his sewage get in the way of their preparation.  Then, during the game, he can't help but grab at his "injured" elbow every time a camera shows him close-up.  Gotta make sure everyone remembers that he's playing hurt and really shouldn't be out here.  Incredible.  In a twisted way, I kinda respect Favre's ability to turn every single situation into a soap opera that tortures him and victimizes poor Brett.  Of course, if I'm a teammate watching him jump up and down and celebrate his TD passes even though his team is losing, I really have to resist the urge to bodyslam the little turd.  And I'll be glad to pick the underachieving Cowboys next week to knock Favre down to 1-4.

YTD Records--Dre 37-39, .487
Jay 37-39, .487

Week 5 ATS Recap: Bizarro Football League

It wasn't supposed to be like this. Never can I remember so many preseason favorites look like dogs this deep into the season. Let's look at the likely preseason divsion winner, based solely on hype alone.

AFC (The superior and more steady conference by far this season)

North: Baltimore (Hype prevails)

South: Colts...duh (Hype fails, entire division is tied and Colts are 0-2 in division play)

East: Jets (Hype prevails)

West: Chargers (Hype fails)

NFC (Bizarro World)

North: Packers (Hype fails)

South: Saints (Hype fails)

East: Cowboys (Hype falls on its face)

West: 49ers (Hype dies a miserable death)

Sure it's only week 5, but there's one hard and fast rule coming into play when picking these games: Nothing makes any sense. Dre accuses me often of pulling picks out of my ass, and often times he is right, but there's also a feel for these picks that can't be explained by stats or what seems to make any sense. Sometimes the best move is to give a team the eye test, and go with your gut. It failed me the last few weeks, but thankfully it saved me several times this week.

• Jaguars 36, Bills 26 - Jason loser, Dre winner. Anyone else expect this game to feature two of the best quarterbacking displays of the week? If you said yes, you're a liar. The Jaguars ground and air attack put up more points than the Bills could counter and the Jags now sit at 3-2 in the quagmire that is the AFC South.

• Colts 19, Chiefs 9 - Both losers. I paid very close attention to this one. Even though the Chiefs failed to cover, they played a very solid game for 50 minutes, especially on defense and with regards to sticking to their impressive ground attack. At the critical moments, however, the Chiefs main deficiency became painfully obvious: Matt Cassel sucks hard. Three point Colt leads felt immense, and when the Colts finally eked out a late touchdown, it was sad watching the Chiefs still running the ball with time running down, because that is all they can do well on offense. The Chiefs showed tremendous heart, and it really looks like they are the class of the division, but in the end their poor quarterback play will doom them.

• Bucs 24, Bengals 21 - Both winners. There's a train leaving the station and you want to be on it. Of course it's the Josh Freeman train. How impressive that a second year quarterback on the road showed more poise and patience than an established (and clearly declining) veteran. Tampa stayed within themselves, took advantage of many Carson Palmer mistakes, and Freeman made a throw reminiscent of the Matt Ryan pass that beat the Bears in Ryan's rookie campaign. Talk about a clutch toss and catch to set up the game winning FG. On the other side of the field, the Bengals are a mess. Every week now, Palmer looks more and more done. I don't think he's ever fully recovered from his leg injury of several years ago in the playoffs against Pittsburgh, or he's hiding another malady.

• Redskins 16, Packers 13 - Jason loser, Dre winner. Bizarro League Alert. The Packers were the team of destiny. The Redskins were on rebuilding plan number 437. Again the Packers jumped out to an early lead. Again the Packers stopped scoring and started making mistakes. Again the injury bugaboo haunted the Pack, right up to their final offensive play that sent Aaron Rodgers to Concussion City. The Redskins hung around, did just enough to force overtime, and then capitalized on all the Packer mistakes and delivered the knockout blow: an overtime FG that gave the Skins their only lead of the game.

• Lions 44, Rams 6 - Both losers. This game reminded me of that scene from "A Christmas Story" where Ralphie finally just beats the living shit out of the kid that's been tormenting him all through school. In a brilliant twist of irony, the beatdown that the Lions administered means that they've now scored more points than they've allowed, and that along with $2 gets them a ride on the bus (not www.thebus36.com).

• Bears 23, Panthers 6 - Jason winner. Dre loser. Dre labelled me "The Bear Whisperer" this week in our pick discussion. Once he heard me pick the Bears, for no apparent reason, he knew he was doomed. I'm not a Bear fan, but I lived in Chicago most of my life, and maybe familiarity breeds contempt at times, but it also means I can look at my hometown team objectively. Todd Collins was destined to be a non-factor in the game, and whatever running game and defense the Bears had, they were going to use it come hell or high water during Jay Cutlers vacation to Concussion City. This game truly deserves a Bizarro League Alert. Bear QB's threw for 51 yards and 4 picks, and the Bears won by 17 and sit alone in first place. Go figure.

• Giants 34, Texans 10 - Jason winner, Dre loser. In the Giants 2007 Super Bowl season, they were the Road Warriors. They also faced a lot of media scrutiny after a lackluster start to the season and Tom Coughlin found himself on the hot seat. Sound familiar? After their impressive win last week against the Bears, I expected a springboard effect for the Giants, who look suddenly relevant again and could be dangerous in the weaker than weak NFC.

• Ravens 31, Broncos 17 - Both losers. Not even Air Orton could derail the Ravens, who look to have found some balance on offense, and are beginning to assert the dominance I expected from them all along. Championship caliber teams usually get better as the season wears on, and Baltimore could be in for a special season if they keep getting better.

• Falcons 20, Browns 10 - Jason winner. Dre loser. It sounded like Dre accused me of a little homerism in my picking this week. If anything, I'm usually a little hesitant to drink the Falcon Kool-Aid when I'm making my picks. This week felt like Atlanta was ready to assert themselves, which they did....on defense.....again. This still seems to be a very underrated defensive unit, only giving up 14 points a game. Cleveland seems to have developed a bad case of Picksixitis as it seems whoever starts at QB for the Brownies will throw an embarrassing pick-6 every week. This weeks winner: Kroy Biermann, whose highlight reel interception and return sealed the win for the Falcons, and for me.

• Cardinals 30, Saints 20 - Jason loser, Dre winner. Bizarro League Alert. This one was all Dre. I know his pick of the Cards was more an anti-Saints pick than a pro-Cards pick, but damn the Saints are a mess. Last year was truly a magical season for them, which in hindsight can be said for most Super Bowl teams. Defensive scores at will, two minute offense scores almost every game, playing Brett Favre in a NFC championship game. Not once all season have the Saints looked very good, and even in their wins have looked shaky at best (and look at who the Saints beat: Minnesota, San Francisco, and Carolina with their 1-13 combined record). Arizona, much like Washington, did just enough to hang around, and then took a page out of the Saints 2009 playbook by scoring two defensive touchdowns late to take and then pad the lead.

• Titans 34, Cowboys 27 - Both losers. I literally laughed when I heard this was a seven point spread for the Cowboys. My initial reaction was to take Tennessee, but then I let stats creep into my brain, most notably how well the Cowboys perform coming off bye weeks, as well as their impressive win at Houston two weeks ago. So of course Dre and I spit in the face of God, and He smote us.

• Raiders 35, Chargers 27 - Jason winner, Dre loser. Yeah, OK, THIS one I pulled out of my ass. Sure the Chargers have been playing Bizarro League football and this is a divisional matchup, but damn. San Diego's Not-So-Special Teams were on display again, having 2 punts blocked in the first five minutes of the game! Those blocks directly gave Oakland nine points. We made fun of the Chargers Not-So-Special Teams in our pick discussion, but this is getting ridiculous now.

• Eagles 27, Niners 24 - Jason winner, Dre loser. Bizarro League Alert. Oh, the primetime games. The Niners are trying to stave off an 0-5 start against an Eagles team reeling from a loss to McNabb and losing Micheal Vick all in the same game. This game SCREAMED Niners all the way. But we forget that this is the Bizarro Football League, and the year of the demise of preseason favorites. Post-hype, the Eagles put what should amount to the final nail in the coffin of Coach Psycho and the Alex Smith Experiment.

• Jets 29, Vikings 22 - Both winners. Is it Christmastime already? Brett Favre delivered an ATS win with a patented late game pick 6. In a soaking rain, the Vikings did their best for 3 quarters to look doner than done, then pulled off a late game rally and looked like they might just pull it out. Maybe in another year, but not in Bizarro Year. The Vikings now sit with as many wins as the Lions, with their only win coming against the Lions. But things get better for the Vikings right? Nope, they get to host their Bizarro League rivals next week at home against Dallas. My best guess for the result of that game: tie.

Another rough week down. What will the BFL hold for us next week? Stay tuned....

Jason 7-7

Dre 5-9

2010 Week #5

Here are the somewhat tardy picks for Week 5.

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

BUF (0-4)	1	Jack (2-2)			Jack	Buf
IND (2-2)	7	KC (3-0)			KC	KC
CIN (2-2)	6 1/2	TB (2-1)			TB	TB
GB (3-1)	2 1/2	WASH (2-2)			Wash	GB
DET (0-4)	3	StL (2-2)			StL	StL
CAR (0-4)	2 1/2	Chi (3-1)			Car	Chi
HOU (3-1)	3	NYG (2-2)			Hou	NY
BAL (3-1)	7	Den (2-2)			Den	Den
Atl (3-1)	3	CLE (1-3)			Cle	Atl
NO (3-1)	6 1/2	ARIZ (2-2)			Ariz	NO
DAL (1-2)	7	Tenn (2-2)			Dal	Dal
SD (2-2)	6	OAK (1-3)			SD	Oak
	Sun. Nite
SF (0-4)	3	Phi (2-2)			SF	Phi
	Mon. Nite
NYJ (3-1)	4	Min (1-2)			NY	NY

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• It's a very conservative week as far as the spreads go.  When you see a lot of spreads at 3 or 7 or right around those two numbers, it means that the bookmakers started the lines out at non-risky points, and the betting public largely went along with it.  The 3-point and 7-point home favorites are what Jason and I like to call "cop-out lines."  The bookies make the cop-out FG or TD line and the bettors don't move the line because they're also afraid to think differently on those specific games.
• The Buffalo as 1-point fav line was startling to me, but apparently not to Jason, who will ride the Ryan Fitzpatrick train.  Mostly, he thinks the Jags will come back to Earth after upsetting Indy last week.  I can see that, but it shouldn't take much to beat Buffalo.  And the line started off a trend of all four 0-win teams being favored.  I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.
• Jason was very tempted to go with KC straight up, but he's just taking the seven points.  (Speaking of crazy pills, the undefeated Chiefs as a 7-point dog.  Wow.)  I'm going out on that limb and taking the Chefs to win.  What they do best on offense is run, and what the Colts do worse in any facet of the game is defend the run.  I imagine both teams scoring at will all game using their preferred methods, and who knows, maybe Kansas City gets the ball last like the Jags did last week and hits the game-winning FG.  Plus, don't forget the possible big special-teams play that KC is capable of with their playmakers Javier Arenas and Dexter McCluster.
• My dislike of Cincy is well documented, as Jason's love of Tampa QB Josh Freeman.  It's a no-brainer for us to take those points against the Bengals, although I do have Cincy winning late.
• Ah, the completely unpredictable Washington Redskins.  I warned all of you that I don't have the slightest clue when it comes to picking Donovan McNabb games.  He plays like crap last week and they still pull out the win thanks to demolishing Michael Vick at the goal line on a play that didn't count.  I guess I will ride the momentum and pick the Skins to knock off the Packers with the help of RB Ryan Torain, who will get his opportunity to run all over Green Bay with Clinton Portis sitting out this game.  Jason admits the Pack haven't played very well yet, but he still likes them better than Mike Shanahan's motley crew.
• Detroit makes team #2 that will be favored to win despite having not won a game yet.  The St. Louis disrespect has been hot and heavy from me, but I can't deny what they've done so far this season.  They look much improved from last year, and although I still believe rookie QB Sam Bradford is overrated, he looked great last week.  Combine that with the Lions getting obliterated through the air all season long, and we have to go with the Rams and the points on the road despite Detroit playing every team tough thus far.  However, Jason would like to be noted as officially having the Lions to win the game but not cover the spread.  Write that shit down:  He's got it Lions 24, Rams 23 on a last-second FG.  His logic is that Detroit can win, but all of their games are close except for the Minnesota loss, so they won't win big.
• And I will hold true to my word, as I stated last week that Carolina would be my pick against the Chicago Bears if Bears QB Jay Cutler would sit out.  I'm stunned that I have to give points to do it, but I will anyway.   Jason agrees with me that what the Giants did to Cutler last week should have been blurred out like a porn PPV channel, but his point is, this isn't the Giants and they may not be going with Todd Collins at QB like the Bears are, but they're going with Jimmy Clausen, who might not be better at all.
• Speaking of the Giants, they made a hell of an impression on Jay, who loved how they "pinned their eyes back" (Desmond Howard malaprop, not Jason's) and got after the Bears.  Jason thinks they're underrated, and he'll take them over the inconsistent Texans.  I'll go with Houston because they seem to have their running game with Arian Foster in gear again, and they're such a dangerous offense when they have all facets in full power.
• Air Orton still gets no respect.  The Broncos are a touchdown dog against the Ravens??  Really?  This game should prove the point that there are no great teams in the NFL.  Judging by the power polls and this spread, folks seem to think that Baltimore is a great team.  We heartily disagree.  Again, I will pick Denver to go on the road in a tough matchup and get the victory largely thanks to a passing scheme that doesn't let the defense to key in on one favorite target.  Air Orton doesn't care what your name is, he just wants to get you the rock in space, and not even the vaunted Baltimore D will stop him.  Jason is on board with me this time, also liking Denver straight up.
• Jason is a Falcons fan and likes to see things positively for them, so it's no surprise that he likes Atlanta over the Browns.  But Cleveland has led in the 4th quarter of every game this season, and figured out a way to hold on to that lead last week.  Plus, Atlanta actually lost the game last week against San Francisco, if only the dumbass DB hits the ground after the interception.  Color me very unimpressed with the Dirty Birds.  Give me the Dawg Pound for the win, even with Jake Delhomme potentially back at QB.  The Browns and coach Eric Mangenius surely know by this point that the way for them to win games is not with great QB play, but by pounding the rock on the ground with Peyton Hillis or whomever they can scrounge up at the RB position.
• We're both frightened about this Saints-Cards line.  Neither of us is crazy enough to take undrafted rookie QB Max Hall to turn around Arizona and lead them to victory over the champs.  But we're still hesitant to take New Orleans by a TD because they've been so lackluster.  In the end, Jason went with the Saints, while I'll reluctantly hope for Hall and the running game to keep the Redbirds within seven.
• I completely expected Jason to revolt against the Cowboy love ("I wish I knew how to quit you!") which resulted in Dallas being a TD favorite over a solid Tennessee team.  But he couldn't pull the trigger.  We both agree that Dallas is grossly overrated.  But we also both agree that they're due for a great performance, they're coming off a bye, and the Titans appear to be in disarray.  You talk about an offense that can't operate when the running game isn't as effective as it should be.  Tenn completely bogs down when Chris Johnson isn't running crazy.  And Dallas has the D to contain Johnson and subsequently shut down the entire Titans scoring attack.
• Jay also surprised me by taking the Raiders to cover against the Chargers.  I see nothing out of Oakland to make me take them anytime soon.  I got Chargers squoosh as my lock of the week.
• And another 0-4 team gets picked by the bettors to break out and win.  Indeed, there is a week-to-week progression that Coach Psycho's 49ers team has put together, resulting in what should have been a victory in Atlanta last Sunday.  They got better on the road after two blowouts, and they already turned in a big effort in almost beating New Orleans at home.  I'll go with SF to finally put that 1st victory in the books this week.  Kevin "The Checkdown Zulu Master" Kolb and the Philadelphia Eagles lost their magic spell when Michael Vick got knocked the fuck out, and Kolb will have to earn my respect before I take the Eagles anytime soon.  Plus, their star RB LeSean McCoy is far from 100%.  Jason likes the Eagles D to prevent them from losing to San Fran.
• Now, time to thank A.J. Daulerio for making the Monday night game that much more interesting.  The subplots were already plentiful for the Vikings-Jets matchup.  You got Brett Favre coming back to New York, where he played for one year.  You got his Vikings coming off a bye and trying to put their season on the right track.  You got the always entertaining circus atmosphere surrounding coach Rex Ryan and the brash Jets.  You got the bright lights of New York.  And you got Randy Moss thrown into the mix, traded to the Vikings a few days ago after catching no balls for the Patriots in their Monday night win, potentially being the savior and guiding the messiah Favre and his congregation to the playoffs.  Then Daulerio, the editor of snarky sports website Deadspin, posted on Thursday afternoon this article containing voice messages and cell phone images of The Little Wrangler that Favre allegedly sent to some Jets sideline reporter slut back when he played for the Jets.  Such a juicy story because Favre has played this wholesome "Aw, shucks" family guy all this time, and it turns out he's a horny disgusting old man who doesn't know how to approach a woman without sending pictures of his cock.  So Jason and I are now convinced of a Deadspin Conspiracy, because we think that Daulerio had these pics and messages and sat on them until the week of Favre on Monday night with all the media spotlight going back to New York, the scene of the crime.  I'm not mad at the conspiracy at all, I'm glad that it happened so that I can feel better about having to pick the Jets and give four points thanks to the Brett Favre Rule.  The distractions hopefully will let me win this pick, although Jason also will take the Jets, so it really doesn't matter.  But it should be much fun to listen to that atrocious ESPN Monday night broadcasting crew try to talk around the whole Favre horndog mess.

2010 Week 4: What I Learned

• This NFL parity thing sucks.  How do you know who the really good teams are??
• Braylon Edwards can't make double moves and catch wide open touchdowns all season...can he?  That and a resurgent LaDainian Tomlinson killed the Bills as the Jets put together a 3-game winning streak.  I still don't like them, but I gotta respect them.  For now.
• Charlie Batch's "Close your eyes and fling" strategy didn't work for the Steelers this time, as they couldn't put up enough points to avoid a last-minute Joe Flacco TD pass to the forgotten T.J. Houshmandzadeh.  And the Ravens survive a tough matchup.  Maybe that pass will get Flacco going again, as he had not started the season as well as most had predicted he would.  And if Baltimore has a very good passing game, they can be almost unstoppable.
• I hate Sam Bradford.  As for Seattle, are they going to go 8-8 or what?  Find ways to win at home, turn in crappy efforts on the road...if they stay predictable like this, at least Jason and I can count on one guaranteed win per week.
• What does it mean when your team fumbles away a sure win?  Coach Psycho had to be going truly crazy watching 49ers CB Nate Clements intercept Falcons QB Matt Ryan's pass with 1:31 left in the 4th quarter and the Niners winning 14-13.  Clements refused to go down or get out of bounds and give his team the ball and a chance to run out the clock.  Instead, he tried to run all the way to the house for a TD and had to slow down to allow his blocking to set up, allowing Falcons WR Roddy White to run him down from behind and poke the ball out, allowing Atlanta to recover the fumble and drive back down the field to kick the game-winning FG.  There's a lesson somewhere in there about discipline and composure, but what are the odds that Coach Psycho Singletary can figure it out?
• This is what it sounds like when numbers lie, as Prince might sing.  Cincinnati QB Carson Palmer throws for 376 yards with two TDs, so one would think that he had a great game.  Terrell Owens had 222 yards receiving and a TD, so one would think he had a great game.  Wrong and wrong.  Most of this yardage for both guys came in the 2nd half out of a no-huddle offense when the Bengals were already down double digits to the juggernaut known as the Cleveland Browns.  And furthermore, T.O.'s 78-yard TD catch came when a defender covering him one on one just fell down.  Don't be fooled by the output--the Bengals still suck.  When Cincy needed this firepower at the end of the game, it was nowhere to be found.  I don't know how much success the Browns have in their future, but RB Peyton Hillis does it again, pacing their Top-10 rushing attack.  If he keeps it up, Cleveland can steal some more wins.
• I've been so dead wrong this season so many times that I'd like to take a moment and soak up the spotlight, as I point out that not only did I pick the Broncos to win at Tennessee, but I said how it would happen, with a late aerial attack from Air Orton.  Denver walked in with the #1 passing offense in the league, and by God, they got it done again.  Jason and I had a lot of fun watching the late downfall of Josh "Genius" McDaniels and the Broncos last year, and we'll enjoy it happening again.  But for now, all respect due to the Orange Crush.
• And oh, how close did I come to nailing the upset of the year, Panthers over Saints?  A late drive by QB Jimmy Clausen to put the Panthers in FG range comes up short, and Carolina only loses by 2.  Boy, are the Saints struggling.  But hey, at least they found a kicker in 46-year-old John Carney.  Cue the stale Chris Berman Honeymooners jokes.  (Not so) bold prediction:  If Cutler can't go for the Bears next week, I'm taking the Panthers straight up again.  Goodnight, everybody!
• What's wrong with the Green Bay Packers??  Still waiting for their 1st great team game.  And poor Detroit.  They certainly compete in every game, but it's easy to see why they keep losing--they have only one play (Calvin Johnson deep) and no secondary.
• 187 total yards, and he didn't play the 1st quarter.  This just in:  Arian Foster needs to miss more meetings and get suspended for the 1st 15 minutes of every game.  Or did he put up those large numbers because he was playing the Raiders?
• I told you Maurice Jones-Drew was done as an effective football player.  I also have no Goddamn clue what I'm talking about.  But the mitigating factor, of course, is he was playing against the Indianapolis Colts, who would let Jim Brown rush for 100 yards today.  Indy let the whole Jacksonville club run buck wild all over their ass.  The Jaguars QB, David Garrard, actually ran an option play in which he kept the ball and went 25 yards untouched for a TD.  That's a bullshit high school play and Indy had no chance to stop it.  That's fucking embarrassing.  So perhaps the most valuable lesson in all four of my What I Learned columns:  I have to take the points against Indy any time they're facing a team that can run the ball even a little.
• I didn't go with my gut in the Washington-Philadelphia game, which resulted in me being dead wrong in two different ways about this game.  Besides the result, I was off predicting the fan reaction to the return of Donovan McNabb.  I thought they would hate on him in Philly, but in the upset of the week, they gave him a standing ovation.  Philly fans acting with class--the Apocalypse must be upon us.  As for the game, I wanted to pick the Skins all week but eventually gave in to Michael Vick and how well he's played.  Then he gets knocked the fuck out and misses the 2nd half, allowing Kevin Kolb to show the world why Andy Reid was a dumbass for getting rid of McNabb.  Kolb refused to throw downfield despite his team being behind.  But the Eagles' biggest problem might not be the QB situation.  It might be their run defense.  Washington ran for 169 yards, including a bruising TD for someone named Ryan Torain and an 18-yard scramble by McNabb at the end of the game to seal it.  McNabb had a bad day throwing, save for a nice TD to Chris Cooley.  But thanks to Philly's D, he didn't have to throw to win the game.
• Derek Anderson blows harder than Gianna Michaels.
• Speaking of blows, how about that Chicago offensive line?  That was a special display they put on for the national television crowd.  What the Giants defensive line did to Bears QB Jay Cutler should have been rated TV-MA.  The prison-like gang-rape brutalization should have been viewed by mature audiences only.  I also want to give props to Ahmad Bradshaw, who eventually found room to run against the Bears D and, along with Brandon Jacobs, provided the only end-zone trips for this wretched game.
• The premature declaration of the arrival of Miami QB Chad Henne was shot down Monday night against the New England Patriots, who invented new ways to score on Miami seemingly every five minutes.  Run, throw, block kicks and punts, interceptions--you name it, the Pats used it to find their way onto the scoreboard.  The problem with New England is, they turn in so many uninspired efforts that you never know when to trust that they're all the way back as an elite team.  But as I said at the start of this entry, it's damn near impossible to know for sure who's really good in the NFL and who's just a mirage.

Week 4 ATS Recap: Paper Champions

I'm truly in midseason form now. Three of my Top 5 teams lost, one escaped a loss due to a bone headed defender, and the last one was spared humiliation thanks to a bye. This wasn't a good week to "Crown Their Ass."

• Jets 38, Bills 14 - Both winners. I mentioned in my top 5 piece that the Jets were slowly turning me into a believer. Here again is another solid step in the right direction. Surely, once I hop on the bandwagon, the wheels will fall off. Beating up on a sorry Buffalo team isn't exactly special, but looking at what the other big favorites did this week....it's something.

• Ravens 17, Steelers 14 - Both losers. Just when I was jumping off the Ravens, they go into Pittsburgh and beat my #1 ranked team in the league. Did the Steelers fall into the Packers trap of last Monday night? Did they start believing the hype, that they didn't need Bathroom Ben to run the offense? Baltimore played inspired D and scored just enough points to win, and now sit 3-1. It might not be the most convincing 3-1, but that can be said about a LOT of teams this year.

• Rams 20, Seahawks 3 - Jason winner, Dre loser. Dre made it official. He HATES Sam Bradford. Then he made it even more official by using stats to support his pick of his Bradford hate. Sadly, the Rams gave me my only head to head win this week against Dre. Go Sam Bradford!

• Falcons 16, Niners 14 - Jason loser. Dre winner. There's a theme this week: Good Teams Win Games Like This. This was the perfect example. The 49ers were up 14-0 after one quarter. Things looked good. They were up 14-13 and Matty Ice had just thrown the game sealing interception to Nate Clements. Don't be a hot dog, fall on the ball. Don't let Roddy White strip you. Don't let the Falcons win on a second straight miracle last second field goal. The Niners let all that happen. For the Falcons, better to be lucky than good..again. For the Niners: Good Teams Win Games Like This.

• Browns 23, Bengals 20 - Jason loser. Dre winner. The Browns weren't going to go 0-16. They've shown some heart this year. They carried a 4th quarter lead for the 4th straight game, and this time the Bengals let them finish the game out. Cincinnati: Good Teams Win Games Like This.

• Broncos 26, Titans 20 - Both winners. Your bags fly free on Air Orton too! Air Orton will even lead your team in rushing. Air Orton leads the NFL in passing. The Broncos went into Nashville and pulled out a 4th quarter come from behind victory. Move the Broncos up a few notches on the Respect-O-Meter, thanks to Air Orton!

• Saints 16, Panthers 14 - Jason loser. Dre winner. The Saints continue to disappoint. This week, they needed a last second FG to escape a loss to the winless Panthers. A win Dre predicted, but was robbed of because, bad as the Saints played, that's still Jimmy Clausen on the other side. Jimmy Clausen to me = Sam Bradford to Dre.

• Packers 28, Lions 26 - Both losers. The Lions played their asses off again and just.....couldn't.....pull.....it......out. These Lions are painful to watch. Can you imagine being a Lions fan? The Packers again failed to impress, but managed to barely survive second half turnovers and zero running game for the second straight week. The Packers are another 3-1 team that just doesn't look right. But: Good Teams Win Games Like This.

• Texans 31, Raiders 24 - Both winners. The Texans got up big late and survived some garbage time scoring from the Raiders to get out of Oakland 3-1. Arian Foster was a man in this one, running and catching a TD, and doesn't like being benched apparently.

• Jaguars 31, Colts 28 - Both losers. It looks like Maurice Jones-Drew is a little more "Carlos Delgado Done" than he is "Brady Quinn Done." Story: many years back Dre insisted that he didn't want Carlos Delgado on our keeper fantasy team because he was "DONE!" Needless to say, he wasn't. Back to the present: the Jags always seem to have a game like this saved up for the Colts. Without Bob Sanders, the Colts will be prone to stinkers on defense like this. Go back and watch David Garrard's touchdown run and cue up some Benny Hill music while watching the Colts defenders try to stop him. The Colts are a not-so-impressive 2-2 right now, and in danger of losing control of their division.

• Redskins 17, Eagles 12 - Both losers. What was that thing I said about the Eagles being good as long as Vick stayed healthy? I hate it when I'm right.

• Chargers 41, Cardinals 10. Both winners. The Cards are done (not "Carlos Delgado Done").

• Giants 17, Bears 3 - Both losers. We both expected the Giants to win. Common sense would say just pick the damn Giants but noooooo, we're smarter than that! One little news nugget that didn't register with me until after watching Jay Cutler get gang raped by the Giants D-Line: the should-have-been Giants Super Bowl MVP opened his mouth again. Of course I am referencing Tiki Barber. When shit spews out of his mouth, something seems to click in the minds of the Giants coaches and players that turn them into a really good-looking, ass-kicking football team. Wonder what Tiki will say now about Tom Coughlin's job security or Eli Manning being a gutless, uninspiring leader? My guess is not much.

• Patriots 41, Dolphins 14 - Jason loser, Dre winner. The margins are always slim when playing the Pats, and 2 dumb interceptions killed potential scoring drives for the Dolphins, who nursed a 7-6 halftime lead. They gave the Pats the inch, and then the Pats took the mile. New England didn't look back in the second half, and completely outclassed the Fins, and maybe sent a little message to the doubters ready to hand the AFC East to the Jets. Or maybe the Pats heard that I said that the Dolphins were the better team and used that as bulletin board material. Yeah, lets go with that. Makes me feel better, anyways.

Week 4, 2010 is in the books. The baseball playoffs start on Wednesday. This is always a great time of the year, when the NFL gets into the meat of its schedule and playoff contenders begin to emerge, and the Fall Classic looms.

Jason 5-9

Dre 8-6

4 weeks in, and still nary a push. Nice bounceback week from Dre, though.