Here are our eerily congruent picks for Week 6.
| PHI (3-2) | 1 1/2 | Atl (4-1) |
|
| Phi | Phi |
| PIT (3-1) | 13 1/2 | Cle (1-4) |
|
| Pit | Pit |
| CHI (4-1) | 6 | Sea (2-2) |
|
| Chi | Chi |
| NYG (3-2) | 10 | Det (1-4) |
|
| NY | NY |
| NE (3-1) | 2 1/2 | Bal (4-1) |
|
| Bal | Bal |
| SD (2-3) | 9 | STL (2-3) |
|
| StL | StL |
| GB (3-2) | 3 | Mia (2-2) |
|
| Mia | Mia |
| NO (3-2) | 4 | TB (3-1) |
|
| TB | TB |
| HOU (3-2) | 4 1/2 | KC (3-1) |
|
| KC | Hou |
| NYJ (4-1) | 3 1/2 | DEN (2-3) |
|
| Den | NY |
| SF (0-5) | 7 | Oak (2-3) |
|
| Oak | Oak |
| MIN (1-3) | 1 | Dal (1-3) |
|
| Dal | Dal |
|
| Sun. Nite |
|
|
|
|
| Ind (3-2) | 3 | WASH (3-2) |
|
| Wash | Ind |
|
| Mon. Nite |
|
|
|
|
| Tenn (3-2) | 3 | JACK (3-2) |
|
| Tenn | Tenn |
Some of our thoughts and observations included:
- It's never ever good when we agree on so many picks. I have many stats about our picks that I want to look up whenever I find the notebooks from the past 10 years or so, but one of them is what our records are in weeks where we disagree on three or less games. We're only different on three this week, and I don't think there's any way we could possibly be over .500. It just never works that way. I thought I was going to hit Jason with some wacky picks, only to listen to him take the exact same picks for the exact same reasons.
- Jason believes that his beloved Falcons have gotten many lucky breaks this year, and that shit ends today. I agree, even though their opponents, the Eagles, are playing a worse option at QB, Kevin Kolb, than they have in reserve, Michael Vick. But Kolb showed me a little something last week, and I will actually pick him to make less mistakes than Atlanta's Matt Ryan. I see a late INT by Philly sealing the deal.
- Big spreads are always scary, but at least with this one, I made up my mind as soon as I knew who the participants were. It's the daunting Pittsburgh defense coming off a bye against rookie QB Colt McCoy and the woebegone Cleveland Browns. I have vivid memories of McCoy sucking big time at the U. of Texas, and I can't imagine he got better over the last few months. Plus, he's facing the Steelers. Plus, who the fuck is he supposed to be throwing to? Yeah, we like Pittsburgh huge in Rapelisberger's return. Hope Big Ben doesn't celebrate in the Favre cell phone tradition.
- I've heard some football "experts" peg the Chicago Bears as the luckiest team so far this season. I don't know if that's true, but I certainly didn't expect them to be 4-1. And today they get their QB Jay Cutler back, and they get to face a West Coast team traveling to the Windy City playing a noon game who have not performed at all in their two road games this year. It all combines to lead me to pick the Bears straight up and against the spread for the first time this year. So you know what's gonna happen. Seahawks blow out Da Bears. Always seems to work that way.
- Jason compared the run that the New York Giants have gone on to the Incredible Hulk. Ever since the pathetic display against Tennessee in Week 3, Tom Coughlin's coaching angry, the D line is sacking angry, Hakeem Nicks is catching angry...you wouldn't like the Giants when they're angry. We like the Giants to keep it up against Detroit despite what the Lions did to the Rams last week. This ain't the Rams. And I have a statistical edge to cite for this pick as well (not that my stats mean a damn thing). I like to slot big offenses and weak defenses this way: If you gain 4.5 yards per rush or 7.5 yards per pass attempt, you're a big offense, and if you give up 4.5 yards per rush or 7.5 yards per pass play, you're a weak defense. I can't recall the last time I saw a perfect matching of a big offense and weak defense in both categories. Giants O: 4.5 yards per carry, 7.5 yards per pass play. Lions D gives up: 4.8 yards per carry, 7.6 yards per pass play. Makes the Giants a total lock, right? Right?!
- Neither of us is daunted by the mad genius Bill Belichick having an extra week to prepare his New England Pats for the Baltimore Ravens. He still traded his best WR for nothing and replaced him with a shorter, slower player (Randy Moss out, Deion Branch in). He's still sending out a worse team on paper than the team that got anally reamed by the Ravens in the playoffs last year. And Ravens RB Ray Rice may be back to form, opening up the passing game for Joe Flacco and his weapons. We really like Baltimore here, but I'll be watching closely to see what Belichick can do with this weaker offense. It's possible that he and QB Tom Brady desire a more wide-open attack where no defense knows who's catching what pass, and they think they can make it work better than the record-setting numbers they put up with Moss. Time will tell.
- I HATE SAM BRADFORD. Yet I will take the Rams to cover 9 at home against the thoroughly unimpressive Chargers. We don't have St. Louis winning, but that number is way too high. Jason points out that every time Philip Rivers and that unstoppable San Diego offense scores, they must kick the ball back to the Rams, and that's where St. Louis can stay close. As we've seen, special teams coverage has been a bit of an issue for the Bolts this year.
- We do both have the Dolphins coming off a bye and going into Cheesehead Land, where injuries are starting to really pile up. The lackluster Green Bay offense now has a woozy QB trying to stay upright and call the signals, and on D, their horrible run defense will go against a fresh Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. I see Miami winning a close high-scoring game, and Jason sees the Fish by at least a TD.
- Jason will go with his favorite QB of all time, Josh Freeman, to keep it close against the New Orleans Saints. I'll go with the Bucs for the win. Tampa's weakest link is their run defense, but the Saints have no healthy RBs left to take advantage of them. Smells like a 19-17 late FG win to me.
- Finally, a game we disagree on. I know I called Kansas City coach Todd Haley a dumbass last week, but presuming he learned his lesson and won't try some fancy shit, he's got the athletes to beat the Houston Texans on the road, and I'll take the Chefs one last time before I leap off their bandwagon. I also like QB Matt Cassel to remember how to play the position and put up nice numbers on the Texans, who have by far the worst pass defense in all of football. Jason thinks the dream is over for the Chiefs, and I can easily see them collapsing off of the draining loss to Indy. But I think Houston can be had. They appear to be totally out of sync.
- I like Denver and Air Orton to cover that 3 1/2 point spread at home against the Jets, who I think are still overrated. Jason wants to get the annual Broncos deflation started now, but I'll hold off a little while on that. They're always tough at home, and they should keep up the aerial attack because the Jets' best cover man, Darrelle Revis, is still clutching his hamstring from several weeks ago.
- This might be the most incredible spread I've ever seen. Jason and I are at a complete loss as to why the winless San Francisco 49ers, still coached by an insane person, are a touchdown fav against anybody, much less the Oakland Raiders, who are coming off a big win over the Chargers and aren't a horrible team, like, I don't know, the winless San Francisco 49ers. Hell, we like Oakland to win, especially knowing that Jason Campbell will go at QB instead of the impotent Bruce Gradkowski. Jason also points out that it's not like the Raiders have to gear up for a grueling road trip in order to play this game. It's right across the fucking bay. I wonder what this spread would be if the game were in Oakland.
- I know how Brett Favre got that tendonitis in his right elbow, and it wasn't throwing a football. Hey, you gotta know how to drive that stick shift in order to get those disgusting cell phone pics just right. Jason says that the pics apparently give new meaning to "Brett Favre Watch," considering the watch that he's been prominently shown wearing to interviews and multiple retirement pressers is also shown on his wrist in the cock pics he sent to Jenn Sterger. We have no reason to like the Vikings against the Cowboys. Whatever the opposite of team cohesion is, that's Minnesota right now, and even dysfunctional Dallas should come in and beat them, er, knock them off.
- I admit that it's difficult to go against Peyton Manning and the Colts for me. I'm his biggest fan, as evidenced by some of my prior writing. But Indy's already 1-2 on the road this year, including an embarrassing loss to Jacksonville, and I think the Redskins are a way better team than Jacksonville. There's only so far a one-dimensional offense can take you, and I think the lack of a running game on the road against Washington will cost Indy another game. My slurping of Peyton and picking the Colts as my Super Bowl champ was dependent on a sliver of a running game to balance things out, but as long as Joseph Addai can't get in gear and Donald Brown can't get out of the trainer's room, the Colts will struggle to score as they did last week.
- Speaking of the Jaguars, we will go against the Jags at home against Tennessee. We have learned our lesson about doubting the Almighty Vince Young. He can do anything He puts his mind to, as long as Chris Johnson can run the ball effectively, which he should do against Jacksonville's bad D. This seems like a great spot for David Garrard to fling a late pick to clinch the close win for the Titans, and hopefully the Titans lead at that point will be more than 3.
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