Here are the somewhat tardy picks for Week 5.
| BUF (0-4) | 1 | Jack (2-2) |
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| Jack | Buf |
| IND (2-2) | 7 | KC (3-0) |
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| KC | KC |
| CIN (2-2) | 6 1/2 | TB (2-1) |
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| TB | TB |
| GB (3-1) | 2 1/2 | WASH (2-2) |
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| Wash | GB |
| DET (0-4) | 3 | StL (2-2) |
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| StL | StL |
| CAR (0-4) | 2 1/2 | Chi (3-1) |
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| Car | Chi |
| HOU (3-1) | 3 | NYG (2-2) |
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| Hou | NY |
| BAL (3-1) | 7 | Den (2-2) |
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| Den | Den |
| Atl (3-1) | 3 | CLE (1-3) |
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| Cle | Atl |
| NO (3-1) | 6 1/2 | ARIZ (2-2) |
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| Ariz | NO |
| DAL (1-2) | 7 | Tenn (2-2) |
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| Dal | Dal |
| SD (2-2) | 6 | OAK (1-3) |
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| SD | Oak |
| Sun. Nite |
|
|
|
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| SF (0-4) | 3 | Phi (2-2) |
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| SF | Phi |
| Mon. Nite |
|
|
|
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| NYJ (3-1) | 4 | Min (1-2) |
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| NY | NY |
Some of our thoughts and observations included:
- It's a very conservative week as far as the spreads go. When you see a lot of spreads at 3 or 7 or right around those two numbers, it means that the bookmakers started the lines out at non-risky points, and the betting public largely went along with it. The 3-point and 7-point home favorites are what Jason and I like to call "cop-out lines." The bookies make the cop-out FG or TD line and the bettors don't move the line because they're also afraid to think differently on those specific games.
- The Buffalo as 1-point fav line was startling to me, but apparently not to Jason, who will ride the Ryan Fitzpatrick train. Mostly, he thinks the Jags will come back to Earth after upsetting Indy last week. I can see that, but it shouldn't take much to beat Buffalo. And the line started off a trend of all four 0-win teams being favored. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.
- Jason was very tempted to go with KC straight up, but he's just taking the seven points. (Speaking of crazy pills, the undefeated Chiefs as a 7-point dog. Wow.) I'm going out on that limb and taking the Chefs to win. What they do best on offense is run, and what the Colts do worse in any facet of the game is defend the run. I imagine both teams scoring at will all game using their preferred methods, and who knows, maybe Kansas City gets the ball last like the Jags did last week and hits the game-winning FG. Plus, don't forget the possible big special-teams play that KC is capable of with their playmakers Javier Arenas and Dexter McCluster.
- My dislike of Cincy is well documented, as Jason's love of Tampa QB Josh Freeman. It's a no-brainer for us to take those points against the Bengals, although I do have Cincy winning late.
- Ah, the completely unpredictable Washington Redskins. I warned all of you that I don't have the slightest clue when it comes to picking Donovan McNabb games. He plays like crap last week and they still pull out the win thanks to demolishing Michael Vick at the goal line on a play that didn't count. I guess I will ride the momentum and pick the Skins to knock off the Packers with the help of RB Ryan Torain, who will get his opportunity to run all over Green Bay with Clinton Portis sitting out this game. Jason admits the Pack haven't played very well yet, but he still likes them better than Mike Shanahan's motley crew.
- Detroit makes team #2 that will be favored to win despite having not won a game yet. The St. Louis disrespect has been hot and heavy from me, but I can't deny what they've done so far this season. They look much improved from last year, and although I still believe rookie QB Sam Bradford is overrated, he looked great last week. Combine that with the Lions getting obliterated through the air all season long, and we have to go with the Rams and the points on the road despite Detroit playing every team tough thus far. However, Jason would like to be noted as officially having the Lions to win the game but not cover the spread. Write that shit down: He's got it Lions 24, Rams 23 on a last-second FG. His logic is that Detroit can win, but all of their games are close except for the Minnesota loss, so they won't win big.
- And I will hold true to my word, as I stated last week that Carolina would be my pick against the Chicago Bears if Bears QB Jay Cutler would sit out. I'm stunned that I have to give points to do it, but I will anyway. Jason agrees with me that what the Giants did to Cutler last week should have been blurred out like a porn PPV channel, but his point is, this isn't the Giants and they may not be going with Todd Collins at QB like the Bears are, but they're going with Jimmy Clausen, who might not be better at all.
- Speaking of the Giants, they made a hell of an impression on Jay, who loved how they "pinned their eyes back" (Desmond Howard malaprop, not Jason's) and got after the Bears. Jason thinks they're underrated, and he'll take them over the inconsistent Texans. I'll go with Houston because they seem to have their running game with Arian Foster in gear again, and they're such a dangerous offense when they have all facets in full power.
- Air Orton still gets no respect. The Broncos are a touchdown dog against the Ravens?? Really? This game should prove the point that there are no great teams in the NFL. Judging by the power polls and this spread, folks seem to think that Baltimore is a great team. We heartily disagree. Again, I will pick Denver to go on the road in a tough matchup and get the victory largely thanks to a passing scheme that doesn't let the defense to key in on one favorite target. Air Orton doesn't care what your name is, he just wants to get you the rock in space, and not even the vaunted Baltimore D will stop him. Jason is on board with me this time, also liking Denver straight up.
- Jason is a Falcons fan and likes to see things positively for them, so it's no surprise that he likes Atlanta over the Browns. But Cleveland has led in the 4th quarter of every game this season, and figured out a way to hold on to that lead last week. Plus, Atlanta actually lost the game last week against San Francisco, if only the dumbass DB hits the ground after the interception. Color me very unimpressed with the Dirty Birds. Give me the Dawg Pound for the win, even with Jake Delhomme potentially back at QB. The Browns and coach Eric Mangenius surely know by this point that the way for them to win games is not with great QB play, but by pounding the rock on the ground with Peyton Hillis or whomever they can scrounge up at the RB position.
- We're both frightened about this Saints-Cards line. Neither of us is crazy enough to take undrafted rookie QB Max Hall to turn around Arizona and lead them to victory over the champs. But we're still hesitant to take New Orleans by a TD because they've been so lackluster. In the end, Jason went with the Saints, while I'll reluctantly hope for Hall and the running game to keep the Redbirds within seven.
- I completely expected Jason to revolt against the Cowboy love ("I wish I knew how to quit you!") which resulted in Dallas being a TD favorite over a solid Tennessee team. But he couldn't pull the trigger. We both agree that Dallas is grossly overrated. But we also both agree that they're due for a great performance, they're coming off a bye, and the Titans appear to be in disarray. You talk about an offense that can't operate when the running game isn't as effective as it should be. Tenn completely bogs down when Chris Johnson isn't running crazy. And Dallas has the D to contain Johnson and subsequently shut down the entire Titans scoring attack.
- Jay also surprised me by taking the Raiders to cover against the Chargers. I see nothing out of Oakland to make me take them anytime soon. I got Chargers squoosh as my lock of the week.
- And another 0-4 team gets picked by the bettors to break out and win. Indeed, there is a week-to-week progression that Coach Psycho's 49ers team has put together, resulting in what should have been a victory in Atlanta last Sunday. They got better on the road after two blowouts, and they already turned in a big effort in almost beating New Orleans at home. I'll go with SF to finally put that 1st victory in the books this week. Kevin "The Checkdown Zulu Master" Kolb and the Philadelphia Eagles lost their magic spell when Michael Vick got knocked the fuck out, and Kolb will have to earn my respect before I take the Eagles anytime soon. Plus, their star RB LeSean McCoy is far from 100%. Jason likes the Eagles D to prevent them from losing to San Fran.
- Now, time to thank A.J. Daulerio for making the Monday night game that much more interesting. The subplots were already plentiful for the Vikings-Jets matchup. You got Brett Favre coming back to New York, where he played for one year. You got his Vikings coming off a bye and trying to put their season on the right track. You got the always entertaining circus atmosphere surrounding coach Rex Ryan and the brash Jets. You got the bright lights of New York. And you got Randy Moss thrown into the mix, traded to the Vikings a few days ago after catching no balls for the Patriots in their Monday night win, potentially being the savior and guiding the messiah Favre and his congregation to the playoffs. Then Daulerio, the editor of snarky sports website Deadspin, posted on Thursday afternoon this article containing voice messages and cell phone images of The Little Wrangler that Favre allegedly sent to some Jets sideline reporter slut back when he played for the Jets. Such a juicy story because Favre has played this wholesome "Aw, shucks" family guy all this time, and it turns out he's a horny disgusting old man who doesn't know how to approach a woman without sending pictures of his cock. So Jason and I are now convinced of a Deadspin Conspiracy, because we think that Daulerio had these pics and messages and sat on them until the week of Favre on Monday night with all the media spotlight going back to New York, the scene of the crime. I'm not mad at the conspiracy at all, I'm glad that it happened so that I can feel better about having to pick the Jets and give four points thanks to the Brett Favre Rule. The distractions hopefully will let me win this pick, although Jason also will take the Jets, so it really doesn't matter. But it should be much fun to listen to that atrocious ESPN Monday night broadcasting crew try to talk around the whole Favre horndog mess.
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