- We may have laughed about it on the podcast, but I learned that it may be time to go back to the Sacks Allowed/Sacks Earned stat, because this week seemed to be all about shitty pass blocking, game after game after game.
- In Tampa last Thursday, the Bucs took a flawed defensive strategy on the field against Carolina and, shocker, got exploited over and over. Tampa Bay U. hasn't actually quit yet on its college coach; a different Florida team has earned the first FedEx Mail-It-In Team™ award of the season, but we'll get to them next, ol' chap. Tampa just doesn't know how to adjust and do things differently, a trait no doubt earned from their rigid coach Greg Schiano. Cam Newton and the Panthers shredded the zone pass defense repeatedly and without much effort. The Bucs offense of course couldn't rally behind rag-armed Mike Glennon, but they were also plagued by bad snaps, Glennon's inaccuracy, lack of a run attack, and just being bad. All I can say is, at least they did appear to be still trying.
- And now, presenting the first 2013 FedEx Mail-It-In Team™, the Jacksonville Jaguars!! Confetti showers all around. Does anyone think they're trying out there? If Schiano is the college coach at Tampa Bay U., Gus Bradley is presiding over Jacksonville Prep Academy of Hair Design. It's the 1-7 ATS that stands out for the Jaguars, not just the 0-8 SU. They've only covered that ridiculous four-TD line at Denver, and nothing else. I really don't know where they're going to get a win down the road, or a cover, for that matter. Oh, that's five wins in a row for San Francisco.
- Jason Campbell was much better than anticipated for the Brown Fever, and he led them to a cover over the still-not-impressive Kansas City Chiefs. He couldn't get the win late partially because a bad KC punt broke good when the Browns muffed it, and partially because the Chiefs finally clamped down on defense. But most of the game, Campbell found success with quick deliveries, avoiding the KC pass rush, and a couple of times, he was mobile enough to escape pressure. Now, quick throws, a flea-flicker, and a little mobility shouldn't be enough to almost beat an 8-0 team, but again, Kansas City isn't that good. The Browns seemed to adjust mid-game to Alex Smith's tricks of throwing screens against the blitz and short crossing patterns against deep coverage. The Cleveland blitz started getting home, and the Browns had chances to pull off the upset. We'll see if Campbell can be consistent and provide some basic QB play for the Browns the rest of the way. He's better than Brandon Weeden, for damn sure.
- What happened in Massachusetts was sad to watch for me as a Miami believer. The Dolphins outplayed the Patriots in the first half, came out fired up for the second half eager to put the Pats away, and melted under the New England no-huddle offense and vomit-inducing blocking. It was like LT Bryant McKinnie had one good half left in him before he retired on the field without giving notice. He was great helping Miami execute a short passing game early, and it was clear the Dolphins' Job One was to protect Ryan Tannehill. They even ran the ball on 4th-and-1 right where Vince Wilfork would have been standing, and they rattled Tom Brady, and everything was going their way...and then New England brought the blitz in the 2nd half and Tannehill had no chance. He even seemed to lose trust by the end, cringing and bracing himself before the D arrived. That's dangerous. If your starting QB doesn't think he's got time to do anything, even when he has time, there goes your entire game plan. Give the Pats credit for awesome run blocking out of the no-huddle, but Miami had an opportunity to make a real statement and shit the bed.
- New Orleans still can't stop the run, but they can hit the hell out of a QB and make him skittish in the pocket. More bad pass blocking helped the Saints beat the Bills and cover the big number, and yes, I crushed another bandwagon. Thad Lewis wasn't the same QB by the end of his game either. Perhaps he can share a beer with Tannehill and commiserate. If the Bills could have stayed on Fred Jackson's back and kept running all game long instead of playing catch-up, they may have had a chance. But holding Drew Brees and the Saints offense back is a very tough task, especially when Jimmy Graham plays only in the red zone and can't be stopped even when everyone knows the ball is coming his way, and especially when a pass coverage results in a linebacker trying to cover Kenny Stills. Why the fuck a linebacker was trying to cover Kenny Stills for even one play, I don't know, but that's how he caught his first of two TDs on the day. I still think New Orleans' best defensive player is Drew Brees.
- How? How did Dallas let Detroit drive down the field in four plays and win the game with no timeouts and Calvin Johnson open for more catches after an already hellacious day?? Because that's the Dallas Cowboys in a nutshell, I suppose. Teams who were -4 in turnover ratio were 1-54 all time SU before the Cowboys coughed this one up. I'm not even mad at losing the pick ATS because I said this game was going to be close and I didn't feel strongly about the pick. Like a lot of these football simulator websites, I have my games where I'm very confident, and those where it's so close that I don't feel the least bit confident about my pick, but hey, we pick 'em all. Lots of stuff in this game besides the obvious Megatron display and Dez Bryant tantrum. Detroit's dirty defense was awake early, and it looked like Tony Romo was going to get KO'd if Dallas didn't protect him better, but they made the adjustment and called more runs to counter the Lions overaggressiveness. Bryant only had three catches to prove how much of a beast he is, and he did it. But Johnson was unbelievable. The quick slants were open for him for some reason, and when Dallas tried to adjust and stop that, Matthew Stafford just started lofting it up for him to go grab it and make video game plays. The Lions were losing because Stafford's second-most open receiver was Cowboys LB Sean Lee, and because Reggie Bush and Megatron had really bad fumbles in the 2nd half. As for Bryant, I'm not going to pick one side or the other. It's true that he's an immature diva for ranting like a madman on the sideline while his team was winning, presumably being selfish and upset for getting way less targets than Megatron was getting. It's also true that he probably wanted to make more plays to help his team because he knew he was the best option, and as a competitor he should be pissed that he wasn't getting those chances. Both are truths. There's no definite side to take.
- Still don't know what's wrong with Eli Manning and why he can't make it click with his receivers this year, but he didn't need to in Philadelphia because the Eagles find ways to shoot themselves in the foot at home. This time, they actually did it the way Jason and I accurately predicted: They went to Michael Vick at QB even though he probably wasn't physically ready because Nick Foles was concussed and Matt Barkley isn't trustworthy, and Vick got hurt again, and Barkley came again and wasn't good enough. That was all she wrote.
- Can a team look more old and slow than the Pittsburgh Steelers did on the first play from scrimmage at Oakland? Terrelle Pryor ran a simple read option and took it 93 yards up the middle untouched, and the Raiders were off and running. From there, Pittsburgh forced Pryor into mistakes when he had to throw, but the Steelers couldn't stop the run or run a balanced offense because they were down 14-0 and 21-3, allowing the blitz to tee off on Ben Roethlisberger and smother the comeback attempt. The atrocious punting and kicking (2 short missed FGs by Shaun Suisham) will get the press, but the Steelers lost because they couldn't protect Big Ben or slow the rush. If the Steelers' front seven have lost their ability to move laterally and stop the run, they can pack it in now.
- Bengals 49, Jets 9?? Even Ron Burgundy thinks that escalated quickly. Geno Smith saw what a QB with poise and weapons looks like, and realized that it wasn't him, so he threw two Pick-6s to take the blowout to the ridiculous stage. I said that Andy Dalton has been steadily showing signs of improvement this season, and this was the culmination. The Jets took away his favorite toy, A.J. Green, and Dalton shrugged and made a star out of rookie Marvin Jones, throwing him eight completions, four in the end zone. Can we now say that the Bengals can win even if you take away A.J. Green? If so, it's exactly the kind of growth I was hoping for when I picked Cincinnati to go to the Super Bowl. And media coverage tried to put the blame for the pass coverage breakdown on Jets rookie CB Dee Milliner. That looked like the whole secondary having problems to me, not just one kid.
- I wanted to give Atlanta the next FedEx Mail-It-In Team™ award, but I don't think they mailed it in versus the Cardinals. I think the Falcons were another of those teams with horrible pass protection this week, I think the Atlanta DBs were as lost as any group I've seen all year between pass coverage and run contain, and I think Matty Ice, naturally, wasn't on the same page with his new receivers at the most inopportune times. His INTs were nowhere near the intended receivers, and I suspect most or all of the receivers weren't where they were supposed to be. And this was after Interception Santa gave Atlanta their first three points on a total gift pick, so Atlanta had momentum and opportunity. Now, keep an eye on them in these next games as their reality sinks in. They might be ready to mail it in behind their clearly unhappy star TE Tony Gonzalez. If his effort wanes, the rest of them could follow suit.
- Washington, like Miami, had a better team down and in the crosshairs in the 2nd half and couldn't figure out how to put them away, and we really should take the mental note and learn something about both teams. Whatever we may have thought about the Dolphins or Redskins, they showed what they're really made of on Sunday. Pierre Garçon made a great one-handed catch in the 1st half for the Skins, and the next play, the center snapped the ball early and Robert Griffin III wasn't looking for it at all. RG3 was not in rhythm, he was throwing his deep ball but into double coverage, he got TE Jordan Reed hurt on a throw where he was covered but two other WRs were wide open...and Washington led in the 4th quarter after all that. Shannyball was in effect, as Washington ran and ran and ran, taking occasional deep pass shots and then going back to the run. So what happened? As soon as Peyton Manning got Denver in a rhythm and on the comeback trail in the 4th quarter, Shannyball stopped, RG3 started getting pounded by the Bronco blitz right up the middle, and the snowball rolled down the mountain. Before you knew it, Griffin was knocked out of the game and Kirk Cousins shouldered the responsibility to lead the comeback against a fired-up Denver D, and that went predictably bad. Combine an overwhelmed defense with an overwhelmed offensive line, and this is what happened to the Skins in Colorado. Can't blame just Griffin for this one.
- Speaking of overwhelmed, isn't it obvious by now that Christian Ponder sucks and shouldn't be starting? Okay, Josh Freeman had a "concussion," but why would Leslie Frazier not go back to Matt Cassel, who's not very good but is better right now than Freeman or Ponder? I picked Minnesota to cover at home against Green Bay because I hoped that Ponder would feed Adrian Peterson all day like he did last year as Peterson earned league MVP honors. And AP did work when he could. But the problem was, when it came time for Ponder to throw, he looked scared shitless to let the ball go. This is as dangerous as Miami with a QB who looks afraid of contact. This loss wasn't all on Ponder, of course. The Vikings D got outclassed by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers all night long. At one point there was another LB, Chad Greenway, caught covering a WR, Jordy Nelson, and of course that resulted in a Packer TD. And the run attack wore down Minnesota over time, which it's designed to do. I'm still amazed at Green Bay's seamless adjustment to being a run-first outfit. Stick with them until someone stops them, I guess.
- The trend that I cited on the podcast and ignored came up to bite me on the tookus. Teams favored on Monday night by ten or more points were 5-8 ATS coming into the Seahawks-Rams tilt, but I stuck with Seattle anyway because the Rams were sending Kellen Clemens as their QB and I thought that would be a total disaster against the Seattle secondary. It wasn't. Clemens mixed in strong throws with totally off-target ones, and that was enough to lead three FG-scoring drives and cover the number. Why didn't Seattle score more than 14? Because of all the offensive offensive line performances this weekend, this was the worst. Paul McQuistan's still impersonating an offensive lineman, and Robert Quinn couldn't have been happier, as he, Chris Long and the St. Louis defense spent all evening deeper in the Seattle backfield than Lexington Steele in Alexis Texas. I also have words for Seahawks offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell: Dude, you tried to get too cute all game long, and you almost got your QB killed. First-and-goal at the 1 and you called no runs for Marshawn Lynch?? Bullshit! Total bullshit, and I don't even own Lynch in a fantasy team. But it was stuff like that that resulted in no rhythm for Russell Wilson and his receivers, along with the lack of protection. Wilson was also holding the ball a little too long. The last drive summed up the Rams nicely: Great running effort from Zac Stacy and Daryl Richardson, good throws from Clemens, a drive that started at their own 3 gets them at about the Seattle 1 needing a TD to win, and...no rushing attempts? Kellen Clemens' arm against the Seahawks DBs FTW?? Nice try, Rams. The Redbirds weren't the only losers in town.
Week 8 Records--Dre 5-8, .385; Jay 8-5, .615
YTD Records--Dre 56-62-2, .475; Jay 62-56-2, .525
No comments:
Post a Comment