| Fav | Spread | Dog | Dre | Jay |
| GB (12-6) | 3½ | CHI (12-5) | Chi | Chi | ||
| PIT (13-4) | 4 | NYJ (13-5) | Pit | NY |
Green Bay @ Chicago
The betting public likes Green Bay. The pundits like Green Bay. I think God likes Green Bay. The entire universe likes the Green Bay Packers to go into Soldier Field and knock off the Chicago Bears. They're more than a field goal favorite on the road at the #2 team in the conference! Think about that for a second. It's hard to disrespect the Bears or love the Packers any more than picking GB to win on the road by more than 3 points. The overwhelming cheese love reminded me and Jason of two different recent scenarios, neither of which worked out for the road team. He thinks this sets up like the Pack visiting Arizona in the Wild Card round just last year. There was much love for GB as a sleeper to go through the NFC last season as the playoffs began, and you could find the Pack as a 1-point favorite in some sportsbooks at Arizona. They lost despite scoring 45 points. I am reminded of the New Orleans Saints in 2007 being a 2-point fav at Chicago in the NFC title game because no one wanted to believe that Rex Grossman and Lovie Smith could make it to the Super Bowl, and lo and behold, they did just that. Now it's Lovie and Jay Cutler being hated on, but I don't necessarily think it's unwarranted. As I've said many times this season, I don't think the Bears are nearly as good as their record. But I do think they're good enough to beat the Packers in a Soldier Field atmosphere the likes of which they've never experienced. I admit that there are several factors that I'm ignoring in order to take Chicago. There's GB's Aaron Rodgers playing as good as any QB in the game right now. There's the Bears getting a break in their 1st playoff game this year, playing a glorified scrimmage against a bad Seattle squad, which is not a good way to warm up for Green Bay. And there's the overdue appearance of a blown coverage by the Bears secondary allowing a WR to be wide open for a long TD catch, which they're good for at least once every playoff season. I call it their Cover-0. It seems like they call it on purpose sometimes, it's such a bad gaffe. I can see Brian Urlacher calling the defensive signals, looking at Greg Jennings and furiously waving his arms and pointing at him while calling for the Cover-0: "Don't cover him! Don't cover him! No! No! No! No!!" Despite all that, I am picking the Bears to win late because their defense has kept Rodgers relatively contained in their 2 earlier games. We all know that the Pack had trouble moving the ball in their 10-3 win over Chicago in Week 17. But looking back at their loss at Chicago in Week 3, it's interesting to note that of Rodgers' 34 completions and 316 yards, 9 of those catches and 115 of those yards went to a man who many thought would be a huge factor for the Packers as they marched through the NFC this season, TE JerMichael Finley, who won't be out there today. His absence combined with the Bears' defensive intensity and the Soldier Field crowd lead me to take Chicago to go to the Super Bowl for the 2nd time under Lovie Smith. For the record, Jason thinks Green Bay will win another tight battle, but by 3 points or less, hence his picking of Chicago to cover the number. Jason chuckled at the thought of a 6-seed being such a heavy favorite at the 2-seed, and I have to agree. But then again, I'm 1-7 in the playoffs ATS, so what the fuck do I know. My X-factor: Bears CB Charles Tillman. He's been a victim of the Cover-0 many times throughout the years, but he's also caught up to many receivers and stripped the pigskin, and turnovers will prove very costly in what should be a close contest.
My Pick: Chicago 19-16
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh
The Jets are now 8-2 on the road this season counting the playoffs, and one of those wins came in Week 15 at Pittsburgh, who the Jets had never beaten in the Steel City prior to that win. They were able to force Ben Roethlisberger into a lot of incompletions in that game and no INTs but 3 sacks and a lost fumble. I cited a big problem for Pittsburgh in this game in my What I Learned column. They were missing SS Troy Polamalu, and the Jets kept making big plays with QB Mark Sanchez by rolling him out on bootlegs for 1st-down runs, which I thought wouldn't happen if Troy were around. Well, Troy's around today, Mark. Good luck. Seriously, what do the "experts" see in Sanchez that make them place this guy on such a pedestal? I heard many people rank the 4 remaining QBs this week, and almost all of them put Sanchez 3rd ahead of Cutler because Sanchez has won 4 playoff games. News flash: QB wins is the most retarded stat in all of sports. The offense theoretically is on the field half the time, and sometimes less than that. So why does the QB get a "win"? Why not the middle LB? He quarterbacks the defense, and they have as much to do with a win as the offense. Actually, in the Jets' case, the defense has way more to do with the win than the offense. I'll try to not completely crush Sanchez today because he hasn't been atrocious on every single throw this postseason. But folks, he's not very good. Just watch him. He's not very good. He airmailed a bunch of throws in Indy, and he was merely adequate last week in Foxboro. And in this big win at Pittsburgh a few weeks ago? 19-29-170, and his only TD was running on the previously mentioned bootleg. That's not very good. I cannot pick a team to go to the Super Bowl with a QB who's not very good, not when they're playing against a team that's very good in every phase of the game. Jason agrees with me about Sanchez, but he's seduced by the Jets and what they've done so far in the playoffs, which I admit is pretty fucking impressive. Jason feels that this will be close just like the GB-Chi game, and he's going with the double whammy of picking two underdogs to cover today but not to win. He says this feels like 16-13 Steelers or something like that. I can see that, but the Pit-Bal game last week felt close, and it was, all the way up until a long bomb by Big Ben put Pittsburgh in position to win by a TD and cover the spread. The only thing stopping that from happening again today? Big Ben holding on to the damn football too long again. Let the rock go, Ben. For the sake of me having a chance to beat Jason in the Super Bowl pick in two weeks and earn a tie for the season, which won't happen if the Steelers don't cover today, let the motherfucking rock go!!! My X-factor: Steelers WR Hines Ward. Not just for his obvious value as a possession receiver keeping the 1st downs coming, but for his hardcore blocking of any defender trying to get to his teammates when they have the ball.
My Pick: Pittsburgh 24-14
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