| Fav | Spread | Dog | Dre | Jay |
| Saturday | ||||||
| PIT (12-4) | 3½ | Bal (13-4) | Bal | Bal | ||
| Sat. Nite | ||||||
| ATL(13-3) | 1 | GB (11-6) | Atl | GB | ||
| Sunday | ||||||
| CHI(11-5) | 10 | Sea (8-9) | Sea | Sea | ||
| NE (14-2) | 9½ | NYJ (12-5) | NE | NE | ||
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
Break out the ice packs and Excedrin when these two teams go at it. And that's just for those watching this carnage. Ravens RB Ray Rice came down with some kind of illness in the last day or so, and my first instinct was to assume that someone in the Pittsburgh hotel sneezed into Rice's room service food. But then I looked at Rice's numbers in the 2 games against the Steelers in the regular season: 8 carries for a whopping 20 yards in Week 4, and 9 for 32 in Week 13. Fuck it, I just got sick. But it's a sign of how hard and close these two play each other that I am acknowledging that Rice will do nothing in this game, and I said Baltimore goes nowhere without Rice playing well, and I'm still taking the Ravens to cover. They just stay within 3 points of each other all the time no matter who comes out on top. Both games this season were 3-point outcomes, so now the spread's 3 and a hook? Don't think so. Jason likes the Ravens to win outright, and I could see that. Some crazy INT by Ed Reed or sack/fumble by Ray Lewis to win the game? Easy to imagine. I'll call a Steelers comeback in the last minute with a Big Ben drive down the field to win by a FG. My X-factor: Steelers LB LaMarr Woodley. Clearly, Pitt's D is a different animal when SS Troy Polamalu is playing, as he will today. But by focusing on the Steelers' secondary, Joe Flacco and the Ravens may miss out on that incredible linebacking crew and allow them to create chaos at the line of scrimmage. Woodley has a knack for getting in the backfield when it counts--he's played in 4 playoff games in his career, and amazingly, he has 2 sacks in each of those games.
My Pick: Pittsburgh 23-21
Green Bay @ Atlanta
My head is still spinning from the pretzel logic Jason tried to use to justify his pick of the Pack tonight. Basically, he's going with Green Bay because Atlanta is his favorite team from childhood and he thinks he's guaranteed happiness either way if he goes with the Packers. He can have his team lose but get the pick right, or he can get the pick wrong but watch his squad advance to the conference finals. My one-word response to this: Huh?? It's the tortured logic of someone having to judge the team in his heart by using his brain, and we'll see how twisted I get when trying to explain how I'm judging my favorite team, the Bears, right after this pick. As for analysis of this one, the betting public is loving the Pack as the hot team, and this isn't just because of how good Green Bay is. Like Chicago, Atlanta hasn't been respected as an elite team despite their 13-3 record. Many experts seem to toss out the "Matty Ice just wins at home" line as if they think it's a big fluke that Falcons QB Matt Ryan has gone 20-2 at home in his pro career. I'm picking Atlanta because, dammit, winning NFL games at a .900 percentage under any circumstances is a skill, not a fluke. Atlanta just wins at home. They did it against the Packers in Week 12, and GB QB Aaron Rodgers had a huge day, throwing for 344 yards and also leading the team with 51 rushing yards. It still wasn't enough. The logic would be that GB has a much better chance with the emergence of a RB, James Starks, so that Rodgers doesn't have to do it all. That assumes that Rodgers can throw for at least 344 again, and it assumes that Ryan won't step up his game to do more than the 198 yards he threw for in that win. The Falcons just know how to win. Atlanta will be missing their nickelback, but that's okay because the Packers' 3rd WR, James Jones, can't catch. My X-factor: Falcons TE Tony Gonzalez. Atlanta will need RB Michael Turner to balance the offense, but Ryan only has a couple of downfield weapons he can count on, and when Roddy White is covered, he's going to have to find the veteran TE Gonzalez on seam routes and jump balls to move the chains.
My Pick: Atlanta 27-23
Seattle @ Chicago
It's the team with a new offense and horrible blockers whose coach was going to be shitcanned if they had a bad season hosting the worst playoff team in NFL history. Those of you who know what's going to happen in this game, go to hell because you're full of it. Any prediction can be valid or invalid because no one knows. Even looking back to their Week 6 meeting, you can't be confident that the events of that day are a portent to this Sunday's action. Will the Bears run only 13 times as a team like they did that day? Unlikely, as coordinator Mike Martz has been much more willing to run in the 2nd half of the season. Plus, Seattle LB Lofa Tatupu is loopy with concussion symptoms, and if he doesn't go, running the ball will be that much more inviting. Will the Seahawks sack Jay Cutler 6 times again? Who knows? The Chicago offensive line has been better, but they're still not good, and they had a bad day in their last game against Green Bay. Will Mike Williams go off for 10 catches and 123 yards again? Maybe. Whatever we think of Seattle, he and Matt Hasselbeck have a connection, and the whole team has to be confident coming off that ass whooping of New Orleans and knowing that they already beat this team at Soldier Field. So with all of that said, Jason and I will both cop out and take Seattle to cover but not to win. But at least I'll dream up a goofy scenario for the cover: It will be the 1st overtime playoff game under the new rules, and after Seattle wins the coin toss and drives for what would have been the game-winning FG under regular rules, they kick off to Devin Hester, who runs it back to the house for a wild 3-point Bears win. If any aspect of that actually comes true, I'm playing the fucking lottery. My X-factor: Bears WR Earl Bennett. Cutler had about a million incompletions in the Week 6 game, and although he wasn't picked off at all, he needs somebody, anybody, to serve as a possession receiver and convert some 3rd-downs and keep drives alive. The other Bears WRs have bad hands or don't know what route to run, so it's up to Bennett to be that guy.
My Pick: Chicago 23-20, OT
New York Jets @ New England
It's all about Rex Ryan's feet vs. Bill Belichick's brain, right? I'll take Belichick's brain every time in that battle. Give the Jets all the credit you want for their early-season victory over the Pats, but remember that those same Pats went on to lose to Cleveland before finding their way and destroying everyone the last 2 months, including these same Jets 45-3 on Monday night in Week 13. Jets CB Antonio Cromartie's clever comments this week about Tom Brady--"He's an asshole. Fuck him."--may seem like something to ignore, but I think New York says everything they say for a reason, and I believe that Cromartie wants Brady to try to pick on him instead of the more revered CB, Darrelle Revis. In the Week 13 massacre, Revis was the man mostly covering WR Wes Welker, he of the 11 deadpan feet references in one press conference. So Welker must have been shut down like Reggie Wayne last week, right? Not exactly. Welker went for 80 yards on 7 catches and a TD. Any distracting of Brady and diversion off of the Patriots game plan would at least give the Jets a chance. But it won't work. New England is too good to be thrown off by the Jets and all their bluster. A great stat from Miami sports guy Dan Le Batard, who loves to tweak the Jets and their miserable fan base: There have been 18 previous occasions in which a team that beat another team by 30 points in the regular season meets that same team in the playoffs. I'll give you one guess as to how many times the losing team exacted revenge and won the playoff game. That's right, zero. That doesn't shed any light as to who will cover the spread, but Jason and I will pick the Pats because they're much the better team. My X-factor: Patriots TE Aaron Hernandez. The rookie missed the last few games with injury, but in the 2 NE-NYJ matchups this season, he was a huge factor downfield, racking up 152 yards and a TD. If the Jets pay too much attention to the other rookie TE, Rob Gronkowski, Hernandez will take advantage.
My Pick: New England 34-20
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