| Fav | Spread | Dog | Dre | Jay |
| Saturday | ||||||
| NO (11-5) | 10 | SEA (7-9) | NO | Sea | ||
| Sat. Nite | ||||||
| IND(10-6) | 2½ | NYJ (11-5) | Ind | NY | ||
| Sunday | ||||||
| Bal (12-4) | 3 | KC (10-6) | KC | Bal | ||
| PHI (10-6) | 2½ | GB (10-6) | GB | GB | ||
New Orleans @ Seattle
We must now pat ourselves on the back for predicting this scenario MANY, MANY months ago. From Jason's preview of the opening game of the season, Vikings vs. Saints, written on TUESDAY, SEPT. 7: "They're already screwing up overtime because Brett Favre decided to end another NFC championship game with a horrible interception. Thanks, Brett! All we need now is for the Vikings to finish 11-5 and miss the playoffs while the NFC West winner goes 7-9 and gets a 4 seed." From my preview of a Rams trip to New Orleans in Week 14, written on Sunday, Dec. 12: "St. Louis is right there contending for the rancid NFC West, and they could host the Saints in a 1st round game. And the line would still be New Orleans favored by 9 or 10 points." Are you kidding me?? You mean to tell me that we had, from Opening Weekend, the scenario painted of NFC West winner going 7-9 and being the first sub-.500 division champ, winning the #4 seed in their conference and hosting a playoff game against the Wild Card Saints, and being a 10-point underdog? Hot damn, we nailed that shit! The only thing missing is that it was the Seahawks that pulled off that feat and not the Rams. With that awesome prediction playing out, I feel compelled to take the Saints and give the 10 points since I called it several weeks ago. And Jason? He is taking the Seahawks "just because." I made sure that I correctly quoted him on his pick so that he's not misunderstood. He's taking Seattle because he has a feeling that some shit's gonna happen to give the Hawks the cover. That's it. My reasoning is equally simple but a little more tangible: Two awful run games cancel out, leaving a battle of aerial attacks, which should be dominated by Drew Brees and the defending champions. Brees went for 382 yards and 4 TDs against Seattle in Week 11, and there's no reason to think he won't put up similar numbers. My X-factor: Saints WR Lance Moore. Marques Colston can handle the underneath possession catches if he's healthy, and Devery Henderson is the over-the-top deep bomb threat, so it's up to Lance Moore to be consistently open to catch the 15 to 20-yard intermediate balls that capture the attention of the Seattle secondary, which will open up Henderson later in the game.
My Pick: New Orleans 27-13
New York Jets @ Indianapolis
Yes, it's my boy toy, Peyton Manning, and he's playing a team that he historically owns, including spanking them last year in the AFC title game. Of course I have to pick the Colts. And, it's the unbearable Rex Ryan and his pretty feet, and his overrated Jets squad. Jason believes that it's time for the Jets to step up and move past the Colts, and he hates how the Indy offense looked all year. Can't blame him there. But I can't overlook that the Jets are still counting on Mark Sanchez at QB to lead the way, which doesn't inspire confidence as far as I'm concerned, and that Manning and the Indy offense has looked much better the last few weeks. Nothing like your streak of playoff appearances being on the line to foster trust and belief in your corps of inexperienced receivers. Plus, the Jets looking less than impressive rushing the ball lately has coincided with a Colts commitment to stopping the run. My X-factor: Colts WR Blair White. Fair or not, his white ass is in the Austin Collie White Boy Role of running dig routes in the middle of the field in front of the Jets nickelbacks and safeties and catching the balls that Manning feels he can't deliver to Reggie Wayne or Pierre Garcon because they will be covered, respectively, by Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie's kids. Manning trusts TE Jacob Tamme to get open in space, and he trusted Collie, who's injured. White simply has to be Collie's replacement, or Indy is in trouble.
My Pick: Indianapolis 23-17
Baltimore @ Kansas City
I wouldn't dare pick the Chiefs after all the shit I've talked about how I don't believe in them, would I? Oh, yes I would. Inverse of the Saints-Seahawks game, neither of these passing games impresses me, so it's up to which rushing attack will control the ball and therefore the game, and I think it will be KC. I understand that the Ravens averaged out to 5th in rush defense for the year, but I cannot get those bad games they had out of my head. Fact is, that great Baltimore D gave up 144 yards to Peyton Hillis, and 120 yards to someone named Mike Goodson, and 100 to Arian Foster in that Monday night game they probably should have lost at Houston. And this is Jamaal Charles, who placed himself with the gods with his 6.2 YPC average on the ground. Only Jim F. Brown averaged more yards per carry in a season. It wouldn't be surprising if the inexperienced Chiefs were not up to the challenge of performing like that against Baltimore in their first playoff game in many a moon. But I like to crash bandwagons, and I'm ending the KC bandwagon by picking them here. Plus, as Jason points out, Thomas Jones is backing up Charles, and Jones + random team = playoff success. Just ask the Jets and Bears. Jason will take the veteran, been-there-done-that Ravens and their own dynamic back, Ray Rice. My X-factor: Chiefs DE Tamba Hali. The Ravens don't have much WR speed, but those veterans can get open if the Chiefs don't rush QB Joe Flacco. It's up to Hali to lead the charge into the Baltimore backfield and pressure Flacco into mistakes.
My Pick: Kansas City 24-14
Green Bay @ Philadelphia
Finally, a game Jason and I agree on. This one's pretty simple to break down--neither of us think Michael Vick is up for the challenge of playing a big game against a tough defense and not screwing up. And against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' explosive offense, you almost have to play a perfect game to keep up. Vick has been slowing down at a rapid rate over the last month or so. It's obvious to anyone watching his games that he's not as fast running in the open field, and he's much quicker to step out of bounds or drop down and end his run when he gets in traffic. A hesitant Vick is a sloppy Vick, so when his eyes start to dart around in the pocket and he's thinking about running, that ball starts getting loose in his hand, and the Pack will be more than happy to take it away from him. Jason isn't sure if Vick will be able to finish the game, and I wouldn't be surprised if Green Bay knocked him out, either. The Eagles started the season with Kevin Kolb at QB in losing to the Pack, and they may end it with Kolb on the field as they lose to the Pack if Clay Matthews and company have their way. My X-factor: Packers DB Charles Woodson. Green Bay experimented with blitzing Woodson a lot last week in their season-saving win over the Bears. But I don't think they'll do that very much against Philly because they knew that the way to beat the Bears was to bum-rush that shitty offensive line and force Jay Cutler to make quick decisions, which ain't his strong suit. I believe that the Packers will trust their d-line and linebackers to contain Vick and make him put the ball up for grabs. That makes Woodson and his ballhawking skills extremely valuable downfield, where DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin will be operating, trying to get open for big home run catches. Woodson has to spend time cozying up next to one of those WRs, or Vick will eventually hit a few of those long bombs.
My Pick: Green Bay 38-27
No comments:
Post a Comment