| Fav | Spread | Dog | Dre | Jay |
| NE (14-3) | 7 | Bal (13-4) | Bal | NE | ||
| SF (14-3) | 2 | NYG (11-7) | NY | SF |
Baltimore @ New England
Jason thinks this game smells pushy, and that would really suck because a push in any of the three remaining games is as good as a loss for me. It's all about snatching the points available for myself and surging past Jason to win the picks title. As for this game, Jason likes New England in a 20-13 type battle, holding off the vaunted Baltimore defense to advance to the Super Bowl. Yes, 20-13 is a push, but he's got NE because when in doubt, take the favorites and give the points in his world. I like Baltimore to win. Why? Well, they kinda did this before, this going up to Foxboro and whooping the Patriots thing. They did it a couple of years ago, and I'm picking them to do it again because the Pats defense gets to experience a big class hike, going from defending that high school Tebow offense to playing an actual NFL offense. I think QB Joe Flacco may be primed to break out against that D, especially with veteran teammate Ed Reed pulling his punk card this week. I call three TD passes for Joe. I call two rushing TDs and 140 yards for Ray Rice. And I think the Ravens want to make that one more Super Bowl push for this group of veterans on D, like Ray Lewis and Reed and Terrell Suggs, and I think they're highly motivated to assert defense as still ultimately the element of championship teams. Tom Brady was jacked up to defeat the Fightin' Tebows, but the Ravens will pose a much more difficult test. Our X-factors: Mine is Ravens CB Lardarius Webb. He's learned some ball-hawking skillz playing with Reed and the rest of those Baltimore vets, and he's gonna need them against Brady and co. Jason's is Patriots LB Rob Ninkovich. He likes Nink to keep creating havoc rushing the passer, just as he did in last week's bombing of the Broncos.
My Pick: Baltimore 41-20
New York Giants @ San Francisco
In this battle of east vs. west, Jason has abandoned ship as if he were an Italian captain, and he's jumping off the New York bandwagon. Just as I'm boarding. Great. Jason was blown away by San Fran last week in their upset of New Orleans, and he's not only riding the 49ers into the Super Bowl, but he's already picking them to win it all! Now, he's on to something if they can keep combining physical, fast defensive play with big-time offensive firepower, but that 2nd part is my issue. I said it last week: Alex Smith cannot have another game like that. He's not good enough. Jason likes the sloppy, rainy conditions that are forecast for this game, because he thinks this will slow down the Giants aerial attack. But I think Eli Manning is playing so well that it won't matter. He is really going balls out as he tries to back up his preseason claims of being an elite quarterback. There's a prior meeting this year between these squads to consider: Niners over Giants 27-20 in Week 10. The Giants settled for FGs early, and it cost them. My review of that game said that Smith won that game too, because RB Frank Gore was a non-factor for SF. And Jason's review said that the G-Men moved the ball at will. For all the talk of the great Saints offense getting knocked out by the Niners, it wasn't exactly a shining defensive effort. New Orleans still made the plays they needed to when the time came; it's just that Smith had the game of his life and led two comeback drives. I am not betting on him to do that shit again. Our X-factors: Mine is Giants WR Mario Manningham. With Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz getting all of the attention for their fabulous catches, Manningham has to take advantage of the weaker SF nickel coverage to make big plays when his teammates are covered. Jason's is 49ers secondary members Carlos Rogers and Donte Whitner. He likes what happens when those two athletes make plays on the ball and knock fools out.
My Pick: New York Giants 30-27
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