- I learned that in this Weekend of Evenly Matched Games, the outcome could be decided on any number of pivotal plays that make you famous, or in some cases, infamous. Hello, Billy Cundiff! There are only two reasons for a kicker to gain mainstream notoriety: 1, if he nails a Super Bowl-winning kick, like that Vinatieri fella, or 2, if he royally fucks up a kick and costs his team a title or great shot at a title, like the idiot liquored-up kicker Vanderjagt. I don't think Cundiff's name historically will be associated with Vanderjagt around the country because his team wasn't a prohibitive favorite like the Colts were, but at least in the Baltimore area, it's gonna be a curse word for years to come. Lost in that gut-wrenching outcome was a hell of a game in which we may have witnessed the birth of another "elite" quarterback in Joe Flacco. He's shown flashes many times before, but from the 2nd quarter on, he was on fire, playing better than his counterpart, Tom Brady, though I don't think Brady had the crap game that others are suggesting. Tom wasn't terrific, but he wasn't bad, either, outside of the deep ball. (One of the deep balls was picked by my X-factor Lardarius Webb...I believe I had that one.) Vince Wilfork showed what an impact a nose tackle can have when motivated. He controlled the game early and late with his run stuffing and pass rushing. It was only when he got tired that Flacco had time to make plays. I took notice of Brady and the Patriots kneeling out the 1st half against the Ravens despite having two timeouts. New England had a lead and they felt that they were going to cruise to the win, so they didn't have to push the issue, and as a result, one of the league's most explosive offenses took their foot off the gas. There's the spread right there. Brady couldn't lead that hurry-up offense for a quick TD in a 2-minute drill?? I did admire the Pats succeeding in running the ball into the end zone when they got into the red zone. Clearly, Brady read the Ravens as being ready to cover Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez on jump ball throws, so he simply called run plays. If he read a box stacking, I'm sure he would have audibled and gunned the ball to one of his great TEs. But mostly, I was very impressed with Flacco and the passing game. He spread the ball around, he made quick decisions, and he almost won the game with no help from his RB Ray Rice, who didn't exactly come up big this year in the playoffs. WR Lee Evans was a step away from the game-winning TD catch for Baltimore, but it was the right call to say that he didn't have control of the ball long enough to be a catch. And then, the very bad kick by Cundiff gave the Pats a 3-point win and kept me alive for the season picks championship. Jason was about to discover that these coin flip picks could go either way, and today, luck wouldn't be on his side. I certainly didn't see the game going this way because I thought Baltimore would blow New England's doors off. NE ran that no-huddle offense pretty cleanly and efficiently, and building that early lead before the Ravens could settle down is the reason they survived versus a better all-around team. The Ravens outgained the Patriots by almost 70 yards, they had better 3rd-down percentage, and Flacco almost threw those 3 TDs that I predicted if not for Evans getting the ball slapped away on the final drive. I'd pick Baltimore straight up again if they played next week. But instead, while the talking heads bleated about defense still winning titles, the league's 31st-ranked pass defense and worst overall is in the Super Bowl. Keep that stat in mind.
- And speaking of infamous, hello, Kyle Williams! The son of Chicago White Sox GM Kenny Williams made sure that choking and sucking it on the big stage ran through at least two generations. (Kenny played for the Sox in the '80s, and I watched him, being a Sox fan, so I vividly remember how awful he was.) The 49ers punt returner only because Ted Ginn couldn't play, Kyle decided to ignore a punt in the 4th quarter that brushed off his knee, allowing the Giants to recover uncontested, and New York took the lead on that possession. Then in OT, as both teams gave futile efforts to move the ball back and forth and it seemed as if the game was never going to end, Williams caught a punt and started upfield only to get the rock stripped, and New York kicked the game-winning FG on that possession. Talk about evenly matched--the Niners and Giants had exactly the same number of yards from scrimmage at the end of regulation, as well as obviously the same number of points. The Giants tried to win the best way they know how, with Eli Manning throwing 58 times, and the Niners tried the best way they know how, with Alex Smith throwing 26 times and trying to manage the game. And it almost worked. (Oh, one of Eli's TDs was to my X-factor Mario Manningham...I believe I had that one.) That's a really interesting way San Francisco is trying to succeed--trying to hit the big plays downfield while still acknowledging the limitations of the QB, who only attempted a handful of passes in this game to actual wide receivers. I hated it early in the season, but I grew to respect it as they kept getting victories, and I'll be curious to see if they bring in better weapons at WR in an attempt to open things up. They can still play smashmouth defense if they open up the offense, can't they? What they can't do is go 0-for-forever trying to convert 3rd down. That was fucking painful to watch. But the Giants survived the battle, and they move on to another war with New England. The Pats can't hit Eli Manning as many times as the Niners did because they're not good enough, and Manning still threw for 316 (oops, that's Tebow's trademarked number, isn't it?) and 2 TDs in rainy conditions. We know the Giants can hit Tom Brady because they did it in the Super Bowl four years ago and they did it in Week 9 this very season in an upset win at Foxboro. And yet the Pats are the opening-line favorite because we just can't imagine the Golden Boy losing to the G-Men again despite having--bears repeating again, I think--the league's worst defense. But it's not like the Giants are free of worries on defense. Remember, I told you to keep in mind that New England brings the 31st-ranked pass D into this Super Bowl. Well, New York comes equipped with the 29th-ranked pass defense. Against Tom Brady. In a dome. Yikes. And they both get bombed on the regular too, and I don't mean drinking. The Pats give up 8 yards per pass attempt, and the Giants give up 7.5. Meanwhile, NE achieves 8.4 yards per pass attempt on offense, and NY, 8.6. That's gotta be the highest matchup of passing offense yards per attempt in the history of the Super Bowl. It's even higher than last year's matchup between Green Bay and Pittsburgh, both of whom averaged a mere 8.1 ypa. So whichever way Jason goes, and I'll be going the other way, I'll step out on a limb early for you bettors who want to make an initial wager. I LOVE THE OVER!!!!!
Dre--104.1 + 8 = 112.1 pts; Jay--113.6 + 0 = 113.6 pts
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