Week 17 ATS Recap: Because It Makes No Sense

We enter the final week of the regular season every year fearful of the randomness and unpredictability that it brings. Over the last few years, I've done pretty well for myself in the mayhem, probably due to the fact that I specialize in picks that make no logical sense whatsoever. It drives my analytical counterpart nuts I'm sure, but what looked like a breezy Week 17 picking against the Coin turned into a full on rout and padded my lead going into our playoffs. I was all set to go with a season recap this week, but Week 17 and its fallout are more fun than any witty retrospective, which I'll save for another day.

• Before I get started, I'll just point out that Coin went 7-8-1 ATS. I'm not breaking down a coin flip in my comments.
• Eagles (-9) 34, Redskins 10 - Both winners - The game was a microcosm of the Eagles season. Underwhelming and coasting to a 13-10 lead early in the 4th quarter, the overtalented and underacheiving Eagles turned on the afterburners and scored 3 straight TDs while the defense stymied the Skins. As with the rest of the Eagles season, it was a lot of glitter, and way too little - way too late. Listen for the whispers of the Eagles as the Houston Texans Memorial Preseason Chic Media Pick for the postseason after their "strong" finish.
• Dolphins 19, Jets (+3) 17 - Both losers - Total Fraud did not disappoint. Needing to win the game and get a LOT of help (which they ironically almost got, and ALL of it save that Tennessee won) to back into the playoffs yet again, the Jets overhyped but strangely all over the TV ads quarterback looked shaky at best as Houston Texans Memorial candidate #2, the Miami Dolphins, finished their season on a solid note. They still jettisoned the coach in Miami, even though the Fins never quit. As for Total Fraud, I guess the Pepsi Max guy needs to give better halftime speeches.
• Saints (-9) 45, Panthers 17 - Both losers - The 49ers let the Rams hang close, so for a little playoff practice, Drew Brees lit up the Panthers. Brees earned a lot of MVP hype the last half of the season, and he didn't disappoint here.
• Packers (+3½) 45, Lions 41 - Jason winner, Dre loser - I tried to warn Dre that he was selling short on Matt Flynn. But I did not expect the greatest passing day by a Packer QB EVAH! Flynn threw for 520 yards and 6 TDs in a barnburner played on a frigid day with 30+ MPH winds. Even worse? The Lions outgained the Packers, meaning both teams combined for easily over ONE THOUSAND yards of offense for the day. Flynn earned himself the right to be the next Kevin Kolb/Matt Cassel/Scott Mitchell and will certainly get paid well for his services. My predicted landing spot: Seattle. I also give zero credit to the theory that Flynn's performance somehow lessens the impact of what Aaron Rodgers does week in and week out. The talking heads are loving that theory, because nobody likes a frontrunner. It's boring.
• Niners 34, Rams (+10½) 27 - Dre winner, Jason loser - The Rams became a very sneaky cheap cover the last few games with Kellen Clemens under center. Other than that, the Niners got up 21 with six minutes to go and put on the cruise control. San Fran is not a team that can just flip the switch. They need the week off.
• Jaguars (-3½) 19, Colts 13 - Both losers - The season ends as it began, with me expecting the Colts to compete. The results were the same, with the Colts looking weak without their franchise QB. Or is he? (insert dramatic music cue)
• Patriots (-10½) 49, Bills 21 - Jason winner, Dre loser - It takes a special kind of awful to spot yourself a 21 point lead and not only manage to lose the game, but also not cover an 11 point number. Buffalo managed to do as I predicted back in Week 11, they squandered a 5-2 start to finish in LAST place in their division. I wonder how much of that money they laid out for Ryan Fitzpatrick is guaranteed?
• Titans 23, Texans (+1½) 22 - Dre winner, Jason loser - OK, I don't want to hear anything out of Dre about cheap covers after this one! A 1 point outcome on a 1½-point line. It only would have been worse if he called Tennessee to win, but NOT to cover.
• Bears (+1) 17, Vikings 13 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Was Christian Ponder drafted just to make Joe Webb look like a serviceable NFL quarterback? If that was the goal, then great job Vikings!
• Steelers 13, Browns (+7) 9 - Both losers - Why do the Steelers keep running, or limping, their franchise quarterback out onto the field, when they know he will get destroyed due to his lack of mobility and penchant for hanging onto the ball too long? Why did I take the Steelers this week instead of doing as I did in Week 16 and taking them because Roethlisberger WASN'T playing? Picking this playoff game with Ben under center at Denver scares me. It's scary to say, but I'd like the Steelers a lot more with Charlie Batch.
• Ravens (-1) 24, Bengals 16 - Jason winner, Dre loser - The Bengals aren't total scrubs. The Ravens showed up. It's like deja vu all over again. Baltimore is still my AFC Super Bowl pick. They don't have to play the Seahawks and the Cardinals anymore.
• Falcons (-11) 45, Buccaneers 24 - Jason winner, Dre loser - This is why Week 17 is so weird, it's the only week where game results can impact on each other, which can really lead to a snowball of wins or losses ATS. Dre called the Lions to beat Green Bay, which didn't happen, which turned his "meaningless" game here into a much more meaningful tilt. I had the Packers to win outright, so all Atlanta had to do to avoid a drubbing at the hands of the Saints was beat the sad sack Bucs. The Falcons got the memo, jumped on the Bucs early and often, and helped hand Raheem Morris his walking papers. The Tampa owners could have just sent them down to Mike Smith to hand over to Raheem during the handshake. Too bad it would have only been the second most exciting handshake of the year (I'm looking at you Harbaugh and Schwartz).
• Chiefs (+3½) 7, Broncos 3 - Both winners - Kyle Orton got his revenge! I guess. Matt Flynn almost threw for more yards than both these teams gained in total offense. It's like the Gods of Good Defense demanded a sacrifice for all the scoring in the league this season and the ritual was performed at Mile High. Tim Tebow still gets his playoffs though, so prepare for a week of fellating from the media. It's gonna get messy!
• Chargers (+3) 38, Raiders 26 - Jason winner, Dre loser - You can rack the Chargers up as our third Houston Memorial candidate. The annual San Diego December mad dash to playoffs fell flat against the Lions in week 16, making this game mostly about keeping the Raiders out of the playoffs. The Bolts spoiled Oaklands party, and sent Denver AND Cincinnati to the postseason all at the same time. Merry Christmas AND Happy New Year, AFC, don't say we never got you anything - Love, the Chargers.
• Cardinals 23, Seahawks 20 (OT) - PUSH
• Giants (-3) 31, Cowboys 14 - Jason winner, Dre loser - To hear the hype the week before the game, it seemed to be a foregone conclusion that the Cowboys would steamroll into the Meadowlands and punch their playoff ticket. Never one to subscribe to foregone conclusions, I smelled a rat, and went against the hype AND the stupidest team in football.