| Conf. Finals | ||||||
| Fav | Spread | Dog | Dre | Jay | ||
| SF (12-4-1) | 3½ | ATL (14-3) | Atl | Atl | ||
| NE (13-4) | 8 | Bal (12-6) | Bal | Bal | ||
San Francisco @ Atlanta
The NFC's top seed held a 20-point lead in the 4th quarter in their only playoff game, held on for a triumphant comeback win, and will host the conference title game. And for that, they get to be underdogs to a team with a 2nd-year player at QB named a starter only weeks ago. The Atlanta Falcons are not getting the love from the bettors, and they won't get that love any time soon. Who thinks either AFC team would be underdogs to the Falcons in the Super Bowl? Me neither. It's obvious that Atlanta will not get that love or respect until they go all the way. The San Francisco 49ers are getting all sorts of love and affection coming off of their romp past the Packers behind the super nova 2nd-year QB, Colin Kaepernick. Here's how I see this one playing out: Atlanta will not have the rushing attack to complement the passing game because the Niners will bring the pain with NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis stuffing the run. That presses Falcons QB Matt Ryan into action, and we think he's (finally) up to the task. He's playing as well as he ever has, and maybe like Baltimore there's some retirement mojo for Atlanta as well, seeing that their all-time great TE Tony Gonzalez is hanging 'em up. SF will hold the better running game, but it shouldn't be as easy as last week against Green Bay. ESPN's Ron Jaworski observes that Atlanta's zone defense will allow them to better look in on Kaepernick as he gets ready to break contain, and he shouldn't gain so many yards before contact. It seemed that Green Bay had a little problem keeping track of where Kaep was and when he was running free in the open field. The Falcons cannot let that happen. Jason says that Atlanta has somehow perfected the art of pulling out a game if it's close, so he might like San Fran if he thought they were capable of blowing the Dirty Birds out. But he doesn't think that's happening. Even if the 49ers get the win, Jay loves that we got the hook. He's amazed that the Falcons are home dogs, and they have to be fired up and ready to bite. Our X-factors: Mine is Falcons CB Dunta Robinson. I believe Asante Samuel, the more athletic and rangier Atlanta CB, will try to stick the veteran Randy Moss and limit his big gains, leaving Robinson to duel with Michael Crabtree, the talented SF wideout who didn't have much impact in his career with Alex Smith at QB. Crabtree looks to be Kaepernick's favorite weapon, and Robinson has to slow him down and make Kaep beat them throwing somewhere else. Jason's is 49ers KR Ted Ginn Jr. He's the reason the Niners lost last year in the NFC title game. If Ginn were healthy, Kyle Williams wouldn't have been the punt returner, and he wouldn't have coughed up the ball twice to provide a big assist for the New York Giants. Jason looks to Ginn to celebrate being in position to help this time around by having a big return game, Trindon-Holliday-esque, he hopes. After all, Holliday's team did gag and lose.
My Pick: Atlanta 24-21
Baltimore @ New England
Deja vu strikes the 2nd conference title game. It was in Foxboro last year that we saw Joe Flacco show signs of becoming a big-time quarterback, and that outing convinced both Jason and me to pick the Baltimore Ravens to win the Super Bowl this season. And it was in Week 3 this season that the New England Patriots got their shot at going to Baltimore and showing them that they're not in the same class of the Pats, and they didn't close the deal. The Ravens got a last-second FG that may have sailed wide of the uprights, but the replacement referees (remember them??) called it good, leaving NE coach Bill Belichick to grab one of the refs demanding an explanation. The bettors clearly don't think that the Ravens are in New England's class, as they've made NE more than a TD favorite all week. Hell, NE was a 7-point fav last year in the AFC title game against these same Ravens before Flacco had his breakout game! Baltimore's playoff run is completely getting dismissed in the face of another Patriots title push, and we don't like that one bit. Jason's going to back his Super Bowl pick with those big points, and I'm going to take them to win. Now, I realize that I jumped off the Baltimore bandwagon when they fired their offensive coordinator three weeks before the playoffs, and when I jump back on a bandwagon, I usually crush it. So trust my pick at your own risk. But we're both happy to take all of those points because Baltimore's hot and because New England is always a bad performance by their offensive line away from Tom Brady losing his poise and having a bad game. No QB, except maybe Aaron Rodgers, withstands a shitty o-line game, but Brady's affected as much as anybody. That exquisite timing with his receivers, that no-huddle which flusters every opponent...throw all of that out if the line doesn't protect. The Ravens know this. They knew it when they beat up Brady in last year's conference title game, and they knew it this season when they beat up Brady and forced him into a bad 2nd half, allowing the rally and last-second FG that may or may not have sailed wide of the uprights. And don't forget, another freak broken arm robs New England of their most dangerous red-zone weapon, TE Rob Gronkowski. Roll the Ray Lewis Witness to Murder Retirement Tour all the way to the Bayou for the Super Bowl! Our X-factors: Mine is Patriots CB Aqib Talib. This is why Belichick brought Talib in, to have a decent CB who can make a one-on-one stop and make plays deep versus fast WRs. Talib better take his Flintstone Vitamins and get ready to slow down the speedsters running routes for the Ravens, particularly...Jason's X-factor, who is Ravens WR Torrey Smith. He set the field ablaze in the Rocky Mountains, and now he'll be set to fire it up against the Pats. In that Week 3 game, Smith posted 6 catches for 127 yards and 2 TDs. Talib, best wishes, Godspeed, and try not to commit pass interference while covering Smith.
My Pick: Baltimore 27-16
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