Dre Jay
| Season | 131-118-7 | 122-127-7 | |||
| 0.526 | 0.490 | ||||
| x200 | x200 | ||||
| Playoff Points | =105.2 | =98.0 |
With that, here's our Wild Card picks, which provided us with lots of topics and excitement but only found us differing on one pick:
| Fav | Spread | Dog | Dre | Jay | ||
| Saturday | ||||||
| HOU (12-4) | 4½ | Cin (10-6) | Cin | Hou | ||
| Sat. Nite | ||||||
| GB (11-5) | 9½ | Min (10-6) | GB | GB | ||
| Sunday | ||||||
| BAL (10-6) | 7 | Ind (11-5) | Ind | Ind | ||
| Sea (11-5) | 3 | WASH(10-6) | Sea | Sea |
Cincinnati @ Houston
For the second season in a row, the NFL kicks off Wild Card weekend with its least star-studded matchup. The most famous person in this game is probably Houston WR Andre Johnson, and he's not a household name at all outside of football fanatics. But there are a couple of intriguing factors to see here: The Texans have two more wins than the Bengals this time, whereas last year, they only had one, and last year, they had to start rookie QB T.J. Yates because Matt Schaub was hurt. Well, you'd think the Texans would be much bigger favorites this time around. Nope, they were 4-point favs last year, and they're 4½-point fave this time around, which means a combo of the public respects Cincy as a tougher out this time and the public hates H-Town in part thanks to their play in the last few weeks. I had to go with Cincy to win here. I've been saying Houston isn't very good all year, and they seem to be hot to prove it lately. This is the Revenge of Dalton and Green, as the two Bengals stars came in to Reliant Stadium last season against a backup QB and couldn't get it done. This time, I say they run it up and blast an overrated Texans squad by two touchdowns. Cincy's got a veteran RB to help move the ball in BenJarvus Green-Ellis, they've got a nasty defense that will make gaining yards tough, and I think Houston's playing bumtastic enough for the Bengals to slay some more bums. Jason will take Houston because he says that whatever their issues, they're not bums, and they should overmatch Cincinnati easy. The Texans pissed away their first-round bye with their crappy play, but Jay thinks that may be a good thing. Sometimes that's what it takes to wake a sleeping giant, so he likes Gary Kubiak's team to go Hulk-Smash. Our X-factors: Mine is Bengals KR Brandon Tate. Houston's been so bad that even the special teams has suffered, giving up a big TD last week to the Colts' future Hall-of-Famer Deji Karim. I like Tate to break one and take momentum early. Jason's is Texans CB Jonathan Joseph. Cincy still relies way too much on stud WR A.J. Green for big plays, so it's Joseph's job as the team's best cover corner to limit Green and stifle him in coverage.
My Pick: Cincinnati 37-23
Minnesota @ Green Bay
Jay already highlighted my issue with the Vikings in his Devil's Advocate feature. This smells strongly like a Barry Sanders playoff game. Don't know what a Barry Sanders playoff game looks like? Go Google it. I'll wait. Back? Ok, you see how bad he was in the playoffs, especially on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. Barry would make everyone look bad during the regular season, but unfortunately, he couldn't get the motor running once the stakes were raised. Now, this streak that Vikings RB Adrian Peterson is on is something fierce. But it's all regular season. Every obstacle in his way the last month, he's ran through it, around it, and over it. We're both saying, great, awesome, now do it again. It will be frozen tundra weather on Saturday night, too--frigid in the 20s with flurries. Who really thinks Green Bay will let Peterson embarrass them for the second week in a row, this time on their home turf in the playoffs? And if the Pack weren't going to play Peterson as if he were the only guy on the field, they have to snicker at the thought that Christian Ponder, leader of the 31st-ranked passing game in the league, has been battling a sore throwing elbow. It's funny, Jason said that he thought AP would get his, but the end zone would be too far and there would be lots of Blair Walsh kicking for Minny, and that wouldn't be good enough against Aaron Rodgers and the Pack. But when I asked Jay what Peterson "getting his" consisted of, he estimated about 80 yards, and that's about what I said. But I labeled that as Peterson getting shut down. I can't predict a Sanders-like day totally, which would be like -4 yards, but I do think that 70 or 80 yards for someone so clearly the only offensive threat counts as shutting him down. Either way, Rodgers has his full array of receivers, and we like Green Bay squoosh. I'd love to see Rodgers on a pitcher's mound testing out a radar gun. Yes, I'm ready for Spring Training, not because I'm through with football, but because I'm cold. Our X-factors: Mine is Packers LB A.J. Hawk. Someone for the love of God needs to be waiting for Peterson to break outside and get big yards on the perimeter, because he does it only every run, and Hawk needs to be that guy. If Peterson gets beyond the linebackers and is tackled often by the backfield, that Packers front seven is playing extremely bad football. Jason's is Packers K Mason Crosby. The blowout may hit a bit of a snag if Crosby shanks early FG attempts and turns the crowd against him, giving the Vikes momentum and smothering his already-light air of confidence.
My Pick: Green Bay 34-3
Indianapolis @ Baltimore
Yes, it's Old Colts vs. New Colts as Jason observed a couple of days ago. But it's also a fiery battle of inspiration vs. inspiration, and I didn't even realize it until Dan Le Batard brought it up on his radio show. If the Colts bring in their coach on their Chuckstrong carriage but they're met by the Ray Lewis War Dance, surrounded by fans with lighters in tribute to Lewis and his pending retirement, which inspiration wins out? And does anyone actually realize that this inspiration shit doesn't mean anything once the fucking ball is kicked off?? No one's thinking about the cancer-stricken coach or the old fart about to retire when the whistle blows. Anyway, Jason and I see the Inspiration Bowl resulting the same way, although we have it happening differently. We both like Baltimore to win but Indy to cover the touchdown. It's so hard to put trust in Baltimore to cover after their tumultuous season, even though they happened to end that season with a division title. On the other hand, it's hard to trust the Colts to bring their creampuff 11-5 record into that hostile environment and come away with a win behind a rookie QB (Andrew Luck) who likes to throw INTs. I think Luck will lead the Colts back late and earn a backdoor cover because he's led late comebacks all year. It's when he seems most comfortable. Jason actually thinks he'll come out firing and grab an early advantage and the Ravens will fight back and win a close one late. Our X-factors: Mine is Ravens FB Vonta Leach. Indy wants to get pounded on the ground. Indy loves to get pounded on the ground. I don't think the Ravens will survive all through the playoffs trying to pound teams, but if there's one game where Ray Rice should run wild behind his moose of a fullback for about 30 carries, it's this one. Jason's is Ravens LB Terrell Suggs. T-Sizzle has been held back for a playoff run almost as cautiously as Ray Lewis, so if there's a time to wake up and do what you're paid lots of dough to do, Jason says it's now for Suggs and his pass-rushing skillz.
My Pick: Baltimore 26-20
Seattle @ Washington
Here's the TV main event of the day, two rookie QBs setting the league on fire, one with the commercials and the (cornball) smile to make him potentially a megastar, the other leading a squad blowing teams out with regularity. And we love the team blowing people out and lighting fools up. The Seahawks are just playing too well to ignore, and the betting public agrees, making them the only road favorite of the weekend against a team in the Redskins that has not lost since their bye week and is featuring the best running game in the world. The two Washington rooks are awesome, but one of them, QB Robert Griffin III, was running at a very very reduced speed than what he had been running all season, and I am basing my pick mostly on that. If Griffin is at full speed, I may have to go with the Skins, but anyone saw Sunday night against Dallas that he's not close to full speed. That factor cannot be overstated. When Griffin would turn the corner on any run before the knee injury four weeks ago, he'd be a threat to go to the end zone. With that brace on his
My Pick: Seattle 30-19
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