| Conf. Semis | ||||||
| Fav | Spread | Dog | Final | Dre | Jay | |
| Saturday | ||||||
| DEN (13-3) | 9½ | Bal (11-6) | Den | Bal | ||
| Sat. Nite | ||||||
| SF (11-4-1) | 2½ | GB (12-5) | SF | GB | ||
| Sunday | ||||||
| ATL (13-3) | 3 | Sea (12-5) | Atl | Atl | ||
| NE (12-4) | 9½ | Hou (13-4) | Hou | NE | ||
Baltimore @ Denver
In the weekend opener, it's Ray Lewis and the Witness to Murder Retirement Tour in the Mile High City against that goober who keeps winning football games even after a zillion neck surgeries. Three games this weekend have previous regular-season battles to check out. In this one, the Broncos went into Baltimore in Week 15 right after the Ravens shitcanned their offensive coordinator, Cam Cameron, and Denver tapped that ass like Kevin Garnett threatened to do to La La Anthony. In my review, I saw that Joe Flacco and Baltimore looked lost and uncoordinated, and Peyton was Peyton. I'm not switching up now. That Ravens offense still didn't look sharp last week despite the efforts of Anquan Boldin, and I will not predict them to put it together in Denver against one of the top defenses. It's going to be cold and miserable, a good time perhaps to rely on Ray Rice to run the rock for Baltimore, but they don't do that. I thought they'd try to do that in Week 15 and play into Denver's hands since they play the run well, but Jim Caldwell in his infinite wisdom didn't have that in his game plan. He's not bright enough to do it here, either. I'm back in love with my man crush Peyton Manning and that 5th-ranked pass game, and it won't matter that Ray Lewis and other missing parts that weren't there for Week 15 are present for this game. All that said, if the Ravens win this one, I'm locking them in to win the Super Bowl. If they get this done, they can't be stopped. Jas is actually taking Baltimore to win. He says in a tight game, the Ravens will play to their competition and rise up over the Broncos. The Ray-Ray Retirement Wagon wheels on, according to my partner, and since he's got the history of winning crazy picks in the Divisional Round weekend, I just wet my pants. Our X-factors: Mine is Broncos CB Champ Bailey. He's going to have to battle Boldin for those wild Flacco jump balls, and if he doesn't rein Anquan in, Baltimore can ride a few big bombs to the upset. Jason's is Broncos KR Trindon Holliday. He thinks the Broncos can continue to benefit from big special teams plays from Holliday, who's been hotter than fire since joining the team after their 6th game of the season. In ten games with Denver, Holliday averaged an impressive 32.5 yards per kick return, including a 105-yard TD sprint.
My Pick: Denver 27-10
Green Bay @ San Francisco
In the 1st game of the season, the 49ers surprised many by going into Green Bay and knocking the Packers around before winning 30-22 in a game that wasn't that close. This was B.C., as in Before Colin. Yep, Alex Smith led that victory, showing how gutsy the decision to keep him benched after his concussion was by Coach Insane. But Coach Insane, a.k.a. Jim Harbaugh, is an evil genius, and this right here is exactly what he's been waiting for--the playoffs, where his team melted down last year in the NFC Championship Game. This is why Colin Kaepernick is now the starting QB instead of Smith. Where Smith couldn't lead his squad to a game-winning FG against the Giants, Kaepernick will add a new athletic element and either break the game for San Francisco with his skillz or against them with his inexperience. Either way, it's going to be exciting. I think that the Packers are a little too beat up to persist this season, and they will go down here. Aaron Rodgers is still not on the same page with his receivers, who have been hurt and in and out of the lineup all season, and it won't take much hesitation by Rodgers for Aldon Smith and the Niners to come lay the wood. Harbaugh has had two weeks to invent new plays in the lab for Kaep, and I think Green Bay's defense will see some things that they can't be ready for. Jason's going with the popular upset pick, as most of the pundits think the Pack are poised for a run. He likes the bye week Green Bay got by facing Joe Webb and the pathetic Vikings last week, saying it looked like they were running a scrimmage while running out the clock. He likes GB to win on the SF Bay by more than a TD. Our X-factors: Mine is Packers WR/KR Randall Cobb. His speed is legit scary, and if he takes over as Rodgers' top target while breaking big plays on special teams, he could be a huge breakout star and steal this game all by himself. Jason's is 49ers WR Randy Moss. He thinks Moss will get a flashback to the old days and remember the damage he used to inflict on the Packers. Unfortunately, he's not in Lambeau Field, so he can't mock-moon the fans.
My Pick: San Francisco 34-27
Seattle @ Atlanta
In the old school pro wrestling Shocking Heel Turn of the Year, Jason stunned me by going against the Seahawks and picking the Falcons, who he's hated so much that he had them missing the playoffs before the season. It's hard not to love Seattle after their roaring comeback last week in DC, and of course, everyone hates Atlanta until they win a fucking playoff game and prove themselves worthy of the love. Well, why the hell do we both have them doing so this weekend? Well, Jason likes the concept of Atlanta being the very rare underdog favorite, meaning the hate has come their way so hard this week that they've felt like the underdogs of the weekend even though they're 3-point favs. He's going with the Dirty Birds building up frustration all year and especially in this two-week waiting period and exploding all over the Seahawks in a relentless rage. In this episode of Everybody Hates Atlanta, we like the Falcons to overcome. My rationale is that Russell Wilson simply can't play marvelous football every game in his rookie year. For no reason than a hunch, I have him making the key throwing error to lose it late, maybe to Jas's X-factor. Our X-factors: Mine is Falcons QB Matt Ryan. Another obvious one, I know, but shit, it's all about Matty Ice. Atlanta and coach Mike Smith steered Dirk Koetter's offense towards Matty Ice running the show, all for this moment, all because they know passing wins championships in this era. If Ryan can't come through, the Falcons are fucked. Jason's is Falcons CB Asante Samuel. Samuel's schema seems to be get toasted, make the big INT, get burned, break up the big pass, so Jason likes the veteran to eventually make the big INT and shut down the less-than-threatening Seattle WRs. Like the Greatest Show On Turf Rams, who would give up huge yardage only to watch CB Aeneas Williams sneak in for the key INT, Jas likes Samuel to come up with the play right when the Falcons need it most.
My Pick: Atlanta 31-27
Houston @ New England
Houston took a trip to Foxboro in Week 14 on Monday night and proceeded to get butt-fucked 42-14 in a game I called the JV vs. the Varsity. As much as I looked down on the Texans, I was still stunned that they came in so seemingly unprepared for the speed and excellence of the Patriots. I'm taking Houston to cover this weekend basically because I can't believe the Texans would witness that New England machine and how they execute a mere five weeks ago and allow themselves to be embarrassed in that same fashion again. I saw a different Houston team last week against Cincinnati, and Jason specifically cited that game as no proof that Houston was any good. I also said that I still didn't like them after that game, but I've come around a little. The defense was much better than it had been in the last month, and I can forgive the offense settling for field goals because they were, after all, playing a tough defense in the Bengals. Similar to Jason's opinion that Atlanta has heard the rumblings and accusations of "Fraud!", I think Houston's had to listen to a week of chatter that the Patriots have it easy in this one, like a 2nd bye week, a certain curly-haired little girl might say, and they will bring an angry, defiant attitude to Gillette Stadium and scare the hell out of every Pats fan for a full four quarters. New England's defense likes to let teams hang around no matter how many scores Tom Brady and the offense put up, and they may not put up as many scores if the Texans D has another good game. Jason likes the Patriots big. He was strong in his assertion that Cincinnati did nothing against a Houston team that only posted 19 points, and he doesn't think that will happen again with the Pats on the field. Our X-factors: Mine is Texans WR Kevin Walter. QB Matt Schaub can key on some targets and stay fixated even when they're covered, and while Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels are great targets to have, Schaub has to take advantage of Walter on the other side of the field in single coverage and use him when the Patriots least expect it. Jason's is Texans TE James Casey. Jason hates how Schaub sometimes keys in on Casey, who is not a great target to have. If Schaub finds himself hurriedly shoveling attempts Casey's way, it will be another long day for the Houston Texans.
My Pick: New England 27-23
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