- I learned that I now have to be on record with two completely contradictory statements. I said in my season review that Baltimore couldn't win the Super Bowl because no one wins a Super Bowl firing their offensive coordinator three weeks before the damn playoffs begin. I said last week that if Baltimore somehow went into Denver and knocked off the 13-3 Broncos, I'd have them going through to win the Super Bowl, because they could then beat anybody. Foot, meet mouth. Well, one of those statements will be flat wrong. I haven't decided which one yet. As for this game, it had to be one of the greatest days of Jason's prognosticating career, for not only did his X-factor, Denver KR Trindon Holliday, have a monster return day with a punt return and kick return each of a TD, but Baltimore pulled off the upset despite that, just like Jason said. All he could say is, "Scoreboard!" And all I can say is, wow. How did it happen? Looked like one of the quarterbacks had a much stronger throwing arm than the other, and those long bombs weren't defended well at all, and that's how the Ravens stuck around. They won the same way they scored first--by taking a Peyton Manning throw and intercepting it. Yes, the first pick was a deflection. But Peyton shoulders the blame for this loss, so to speak. The geometry of a QB's throws changes completely when arm strength decreases as markedly as Peyton's has, and I chronicled how weak his arm was throughout the season. His play and their record indicated to me that Peyton knew his limitations and figured out how to get the job done without trying things he's incapable of doing, like going deep and firing balls into tight spaces against the grain. He did keep his deep attempts to a minimum, but that last pass in overtime was desperation and perhaps choking under the pressure of trying to overcome a Baltimore team that decided to let its QB, Joe Flacco, torch the field with long bombs all over the place. I understand how Manning could come to feel that pressure, because Baltimore's offensive woes would lead one to believe that putting up 35 points in regulation would be more than enough to beat them. But there they were in OT battling a Ravens team that seemed to have a sort of destiny on their side. Let's be honest, those Flacco throws were hard and deep, but they weren't totally indefensible. A clearly over-the-hill Champ Bailey turned out to be my X-factor working against me because he kept getting shoved aside and physically beaten on bombs to Torrey Smith. The whole secondary fell apart on the game-tying heave to Jacoby Jones. Denver came in with the 8th-rated pass defense in the league, giving up only 6.4 yards per throw. Obviously, their schedule was more the reason than their actual play. I can't bury Peyton forever and say that he can't win a title ever again. But he must hold his composure and execute when the stage is bigger and the competition isn't Kansas City.
- In my only win of the weekend, Coach Insane watched his protege Colin Kaepernick start out with big-time jitters. San Francisco's Kaepernick threw a pick-6 on his 2nd pass attempt, and Green Bay had 7 points without any effort from their star QB Aaron Rodgers. The jitters would have had to be the only reason San Fran lost, however, because the rest of the game showed that three other very important categories when comparing Kaep and Rodgers were not in GB's favor: In arm strength, they appeared to be equal; in legs, Kaep clearly had the advantage; and in "leading the league in guts," as Jon Gruden would put it, Kaep also was not outdone by last year's league MVP. Those were some grapefruit-sized balls Kaepernick had Saturday night. He could have turtled and folded into his shell after that INT, but he let his cannon loose and delivered ball after ball on target, mostly to the only real receiver on the team, Michael Crabtree. And then when he was pressured and had to break the pocket, he put on a show with his feet never before done by any QB ever. When it was over, his stat line read 263 yards passing and 2 TDs, and 181 yards rushing and 2 TDs. Unbelievable! It was like watching Michael Vick in Madden '02 against the Jacksonville Jaguars--no fucking chance. He had help along the way from Packers punt returner Jeremy Ross, whose muff and subsequent Crabtree TD catch was a momentum shift, although Rodgers came right back with a TD drive. The biggest help he had was from Patrick Willis. The do-everything Niners linebacker made huge pass-rush blitzes in the 2nd half. Rodgers was under fire on 3rd down due to Willis, Justin Smith, and Aldon Smith, and the Packers weren't able to keep up with Kaepernick and his all-time performance for the ages. Coach Insane became Evil Genius for his decision to keep Kaepernick in for Alex Smith. Whatever you may think of Smith, he's never in his life been capable of an outing like this.
- Ravens-Broncos was a playoff classic. So was Seahawks-Falcons, but different. It wasn't a sad old lion possibly being put down, but rather an organization feeling like it had overcome the doubts and dominated a playoff win, only to blink and find itself losing and stuck in a fatal situation. Seattle got off to another slow start, like in Washington last week. Even Beast Mode got Beasted, as Marshawn Lynch fumbled early in the game and wasn't a big factor the rest of the way. Matt Ryan did what he was supposed to do, completing passes even while seeing his deep attempts broken up by the physical Seattle CB Richard Sherman. He got a great boost from the dormant running game, and that rushing attack from Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers led to a play-action bomb TD to Roddy White. You name it, it went in Atlanta's favor in the first 3 quarters, from Seattle becoming the team with 3rd-and-1 and 4th-and-1 issues when previously the Falcons were known for struggling in those situations, to Russell Wilson getting confused by Atlanta's muddle huddle and not finishing drives despite great intermediate throws to TE Zach Miller, to giving up a 7-minute 3rd-quarter drive that put Atlanta up 27-7 and should have put the game away. Then that 4th quarter happened. It was bad play calling by the Falcons, it was bad throws by Ryan, it was bad tackling by the Falcons D, it was Wilson and the Seahawks mounting another impossible rally, it was all of that. And Atlanta had to be smothered under the weight of their prior playoff gag jobs. But one thing the Dirty Birds have always done well under Ryan and coach Mike Smith is calmly find big throws and get in field goal range with very little time on the clock. And that's how they managed to find a long Matt Bryant FG with under a minute left to come back and steal the win, if not the cover. "Unbelievable," Jason texted me when it was over, but I don't know if that was his reaction to the breathtaking game as a whole or to losing the point spread in a game where our pick led by 20 in the 4th quarter and couldn't cover 3 lousy points. I know how most of the country will react to this one--write off Atlanta as the frauds they thought they were and favor San Francisco coming in to the Georgia Dome for the NFC title. But I won't write off Atlanta that fast, even though I might also pick against them. This is the kind of win that sometimes pushes a team through to a championship, because so many of those guys were winless in the playoffs before this game, and now that they know they can play well in a playoff game and also win it, they can focus on that small part in between where they cough up a big lead. They better work on it quick, though. The 49ers probably aren't going to be down 20 to the Falcons at any point.
- The Houston Texans played better in New England than they did that terrible Monday night in Week 14. That's not really saying much, but it's all I have to cling to after picking them to cover the number and losing. They did turn in a better effort. They didn't seem like they belonged in a different league than the Patriots. What did they seem like? A worse team by any measure than the Patriots, unfortunately for me. Houston had one drive in the 2nd quarter where they took advantage of great field position on a Danieal Manning kickoff return, and they gave the rock to Arian Foster and ran it five straight times until Foster scored a touchdown. I thought that was going to be huge for the Texans' confidence because they knew they could physically push around the mighty New England Patriots, and they would be able to use the threat of Foster to burn the Pats on play action for the rest of the game. They held the Pats to a 3-and-out and then got a FG to end the half down 17-13, and that had to shake NE and those who bet them. But my fear was that New England would regroup in the 2nd half and show why they were such big favorites, and that's just what they did. Texans QB Matt Schaub showed why he's not looked upon as elite, because in the 3rd quarter, when Tom Brady masterfully led two TD drives, Schaub threw the ball right to LB Rob Ninkovich, killing a promising drive. One might have turned the lights out on Houston covering after the Pats went up 38-13 in the 4th, but the Texans put a couple of drives together against New England's soft prevent-type defense and made it 38-28, and only one more garbage-time score would have covered for me, but it didn't happen. I wouldn't have deserved the win if it did happen. The Patriots mostly toyed with the Texans and weren't threatened after the Texans scored 10 to end the 1st half. New England looks poised for another push for the Super Bowl. Ray Lewis and his Team of Destiny are standing in their way, and they will be a tougher out than Houston. I think it's going to be another all-timer, and I can't dismiss Joe Flacco and his suddenly rocket arm as an upset candidate, especially now that the Ravens have earned another shot at the team that should have lost to them last season if not for Lee Evans having the dropsies.
Dre--109.2 + 3 = 112.2 pts; Jay--104.0 + 6 = 110.0 pts
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