Week 17 ATS Recap: The Revenge of Coin

Ah, week 17. A week so crazy and unpredictable that we compete against the flip of a coin to poke fun at how there is no way to know just how the week will play out. Games that look meaningful become rendered meaningless by the result of other games. Some teams are already on the golf course. Some teams are in preseason mode, holding out their best players for their playoff runs, while others are playing for simple pride or a chance to spare their coach a firing.

So, of course, Coin won the weeks picks with an 11-5 record (after a 12-4 last season) which leaves me wondering if I should take that dime to Vegas every Week 17.

One last time for the regular season:

Picks We Both Won (5)

• Panthers 21, Falcons (+5½) 20 - The Panthers racked up 9 sacks of Matt Ryan, and that pressure thanks to a swiss-cheese Falcon O-line was the only reason that Carolina escaped with the NFC South title. The Falcons finished up 4-12, but played much tougher over their last 6 games, unable to win many games but racking up a ton of covers over that span. The Panthers will have some major work to do. I'm on the fence as to how they can perform in the playoffs, and squeaking out a win against a wounded Atlanta team didn't impress me.
• Bengals (-6½) 34, Ravens 17 - By smoking the Ravens, the Bengals earned themselves a home date with San Diego next weekend and also eliminated the Champs from the postseason. A juggernaut at home, Cincy never relented against a deeply flawed Raven team and poured it on after the Ravens tied it up at 17 in the third quarter.
• Packers (-3) 33, Bears 28 - We've spent a lot of time on the NFC North in recent podcasts. When it came to crunch time, Dre and I saw it the same way: the Packers getting Aaron Rodgers back would be the difference against the Bears, even in Chicago. With all that being said, Jay Cutler and the Bears were up 28-27 with 4 minutes left in the game. The Packers proceeded to go on a game winning drive that saw them convert three 4th downs (including one at their own 29 yard line), the last of which was the "dagger" throw from Rodgers to an impossibly wide open X-Factor Randall Cobb for a 48 yard touchdown. Right on schedule, the Bear faithful were quick to hop on the play of Cutler, but the Bears defense was what lost them this game. Dre and I often joke about the Bears "Cover Zero" defense, where opposing wideouts are left running free through the secondary. We even commented a couple weeks back that we hadn't seen it yet this year. The Bears picked their last defensive snap of the season to roll it out, and it was a backbreaker.
• Saints (-11) 42, Buccaneers 17 - The Saints needed a win to ensure their spot in the postseason, and they did not let Tampa even into the game. Drew Brees unloaded on the woeful Bucs, and the worst pass offense in the league resides in Tampa, and they could not compete. The Saints are a major force at home, but their destiny lies on the road if they are to make it to the Super Bowl.
• Eagles 24, Cowboys (+7) 22 - I don't get too invested in games that don't involve teams I have a rooting interest in, but I found myself rooting for Kyle Orton to pull off the upset Sunday Night. Dallas gave Philadelphia all it could handle, but Orton pulled a Romo at the end of the game, throwing the crushing pick to wrap up the NFC East for the Eagles. The Cowboys played their usual stupid brand of football all season long, and ultimately did not deserve to win the game, or the division. The best team won.

Picks We Both Lost (5)

• Steelers (-7) 20, Browns 7 - Pittsburgh came some crazy shit in San Diego away from making the playoffs, but I'm glad they didn't.
• Giants (-3½) 20, Redskins 6 - The G-Men thankfully put the last nail in the Shanahan coffin, as well as in the Kirk Cousins hype machine. Cousins managed a very Josh Freeman-like 38.8% completion rate, with zero TDs and two picks. Let's hope sanity finds its way back to DC, because I do believe RG3 is a unique talent in this league.
• Colts (-10½) 30, Jaguars 10 - We doubted the Colts could cover 10 against any team. So did we underestimate the Colts or overestimate the Jaguars? Sadly, I don't know, which leaves me still wondering which Colt team we will get against the Chiefs this weekend.
• Jets (+5½) 20, Dolphins 7 - Ryan Tannehill picked an awful moment to go back to being the choker he was in big games earlier in the season. Needing only a win against the "Oh God Geno Smith"-led Jets, Miami never looked on track. The Jets played like one of those teams fighting for their coach, which is an overused term, but here it applies. It looks like it worked too, as Rex Ryan has thus far avoided the chopping block.
• Niners (PICK) 23, Cardinals 20 - As the blowout raged in New Orleans, this games meaning dwindled. The Cards will head into the offseason as a 10-6 team that missed the playoffs, but have nothing to be ashamed of. San Fran will head to Green Bay for a rematch of last years Division round matchup where Colin Kaepernick ran the Packers out of the building.

Picks Dre Won Head to Head (1)

• Broncos (-11) 34, Raiders 14 - Peyton Manning put the cherry on top of the best statistical regular season by a QB in history AND the Bronocs wrapped up the #1 seed in the AFC. Just another day at the office for these Broncos. Unfortunately, they carry the weight of last years miracle playoff exit against the Ravens as well as Mannings predilection for being great in regular season and an easy out in the playoffs.

Picks I Won Head to Head (5)

• Titans 16, Toxins (+7) 10 - Can I get a "fuck yeah!!!" for cheap-ass covers!
• Vikings 14, Lions (+3) 13 - Can I get a DOUBLE "fuck yeah"!!!!!!!!
• Patriots (-7½) 34, Bills 20 - The Bills were surprisingly game until LaGarrette Blount punched his way to the end zone from 35 yards out to put this one out of reach. The Patriots may be the weakest #2 seed I've ever seen, but kudos to Belichick and Brady for keeping this steaming pile on top of the competition.
• Chargers 27, Chiefs (+9½) 24 (OT) - I chalk this up as one of those ridiculous week 17 spreads that would never have happened the OTHER 16 weeks of the year. The Chefs might have been cruising to their #5 seed, but they still have talent on both sides of the football, and only lost the game thanks to the buffoonery of the officials, missing penalties AND turnovers late in the contest. I'm still glad the Chargers won and made the playoffs because they were the most fun team left of the 4 AFC wild-card contenders.
• Seahawks (-11½) 27, Rams 9 - We may have our legitimate doubts about the Seattle offense, but there is no denying that their defense is the best in football. They held the Rams to 158 yards of TOTAL offense, which makes Roger Goodell cry inside since he loves the offensive bukkake going on all over NFL fields. I figured Seattle for being a little PO'd after losing at home to the Cardinals, and now that they have home field wrapped up, I'd lay some serious odds that we will be seeing the Seahawks in Febraury.

Jason 10-6
Dre 6-10
Fucking Coin 11-5

See you in the playoffs.

2013 Week #17

Here it is, the final pick sheet of the regular season.  And oh boy, you should listen to our podcast to hear the way we bring you these picks.  It was, uh, unique.  Yeah.

Fav	Spread	Dog	Final		Dre	Jay	Coin
Car (11-4)	5½	ATL (4-11)			Atl	Atl	Car
TENN (6-9)	7	Hou (2-13)			Tenn	Hou	Hou
PIT (7-8)	7	Cle (4-11)			Cle	Cle	Pit
NYG (6-9)	3½	Wash (3-12)			Wash	Wash	NY
CIN (10-5)	6½	Bal (8-7)			Cin	Cin	Cin
IND (10-5)	10½	Jack (4-11)			Jack	Jack	Ind
MIA (8-7)	5½	NYJ (7-8)			Mia	Mia	NY
MIN (4-10-1)	3	Det (7-8)			Min	Det	Det
GB (7-7-1)	3	CHI (8-7)			GB	GB	Chi
NE (11-4)	7½	Buf (6-9)			Buf	NE	Buf
NO (10-5)	11	TB (4-11)			NO	NO	NO
Den (12-3)	11	OAK (4-11)			Den	Oak	Oak
ARIZ (10-5)	Pk	SF (11-4)			Ariz	Ariz	Ariz
SD (8-7)	9½	KC (11-4)			SD	KC	KC
SEA (12-3)	11½	StL (7-8)			StL	Sea	Sea
	Sun. Nite
Phi (9-6)	7	DAL (8-7)			Dal	Dal	Dal

All of our thoughts and observations that weren't cut off by technical difficulties can be heard on our podcast archive page located at:  blogtalkradio.com/inmuchlessdetail

Andre and the Bandwagon

Looks like Dre crashed another bandwagon with his Chiefs pick this last week.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.

Week 16 Recap Show going live soon. Week 17 pick show Friday Night!

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/inmuchlessdetail

2013 Week #16

The impending playoffs (playoffs?!?) come closer as we get set for the next-to-last week of this regular season.  Jay and I square off on eight picks, with a contingency pick for me.  Here's Week 16:

		Week 16
Fav	Spread	Dog	Final		Dre	Jay
Mia (8-6)	2½	BUF (5-9)			Mia	Mia
CAR (10-4)	3	NO (10-4)			NO	Car
Dal (7-7)	2½	WASH (3-11)			Wash	Wash
STL (6-8)	4	TB (4-10)			StL	StL
NYJ (6-8)	2½	Cle (4-10)			NY	Cle
KC (11-3)	7	Ind (9-5)			KC	Ind
CIN (9-5)	8½	Min (4-9-1)			Min	Cin
Den (11-3)	10	HOU (2-12)			Den	Den
Tenn (5-9)	5	JACK (4-10)			Tenn	Jack
SEA (12-2)	10½	Ariz (9-5)			Ariz?	Sea
DET (7-7)	9½	NYG (5-9)			NY	NY
SD (7-7)	10	Oak (4-10)			Oak	Oak
GB (7-6-1)	2½	Pit (6-8)			GB	Pit
BAL (8-6)	2½	NE (10-4)			Bal	Bal
	Sun. Nite
PHI (8-6)	3	Chi (8-6)			Phi	Phi
	Mon. Nite
SF (10-4)	13½	Atl (4-10)			SF	Atl

All of our thoughts and observations will be heard live in ten minutes at:  blogtalkradio.com/inmuchlessdetail

2013 Week 15: What I Learned

• So some of the Pro Football Focus made perfect sense in these games (Green Bay did give up rushing yardage easily), some didn't hit at all (Andre Johnson didn't come close to replicating his outing against the Colts in Week 9).  I did appreciate the extra 411 despite the uneven results.  Still looking for that magic formula that will give me the winner of every game.  Gotta be better odds of finding that than winning MegaMillions, amirite??
• Games in no detail:  Seahawks-Giants (WTF is wrong with Eli Manning?  He was THE DRIZZLING SHITS), Texans-Colts (no slow start for Andrew Luck against Houston this time, and Case Keenum can kiss his shot at starting next year goodbye), Bills-Jaguars (E.J. Manuel didn't lose the game for Buffalo, yawn), Eagles-Vikings (forget the bad Philly D, they ran Shady McCoy eight times?!?), Redskins-Falcons (seven Washington TOs and they still covered?  Falcons blow), 49ers-Buccaneers (TB now has the worst pass offense in the NFL--yeah, that Glennon kid's really good, LOL), Chiefs-Raiders (has Oakland ever heard of a motherfuckin' screen pass???  And yes, Jamaal Charles gets credit for being THE SHIT), Jets-Panthers (Geno gonna Geno), Saints-Rams (wow, did the Rams pass rush fuck with Drew Brees, but I guess it was all Garrett Hartley's fault), Cardinals-Titans (Fitzpatrick gonna Fitzpatrick with that overtime INT, and that's the last we'll see of Larry Fitzgerald on the hands team).
• We don't have to worry about deciphering which team will show on three days rest and which will falter.  The last Thursday game of the season saw Peyton Manning and the Broncos, coming off another fireworks display three days earlier against Tennessee, come up limp against statistically one of the worst defenses in the league, San Diego.  Yep, the Chargers controlled the ball and kept Manning off the field for long stretches, but I've seen that done to him often over the years, and he just takes the ball and does what he does anyway when it's his turn.  Not this time.  The story was what the Bolts did with the ball when they had it.  Philip Rivers wore out Broncos CB Kayvon Webster, targeting him over and over with much success, and Ryan Mathews ran very well to balance the offense.  San Diego was hungry and played like they could smell a playoff spot.  Denver didn't have the same urgency.  They didn't know what Kansas City was going to do to Oakland a few days later, so I expect them to bounce back.
• Boy, was that showing in Cleveland a perfect microcosm of Jay Cutler and all he encompasses.  First drive, start slow, running, then short passes, then longer passes, driving towards glory and shutting up all the haters until...intercepted.  Okay, throttle it down, manage the ball, couple of possessions including one long one that resulted in a FG, doing well, relax, breathe...fuck, Pick-6, give the lead back to the Browns.  Aye carumba.  And then the rest of the game, he balled out and led the Bears to victory with throws within the Marc Trestman offense that was so expertly executed by Josh McCown over the past month and some throws that McCown could never make.  And there it all was on full display:  Why Cutler's detractors hate him, and why those who appreciate him do so.  He can screw up and make the key mistake.  He can also overcome and make plays that a lot of other QBs could never make.  If you think McCown should be starting even though Cutler's healthy, you saw what you needed to convince yourself that you're right.  If you think Cutler's obviously better and should be starting, well, you saw what you needed to convince yourself that you're right.  Either way, thanks to the choking dog Detroit Lions, it will be a fun ride for the next few weeks in Chi-Town.
• In South Florida, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots rediscovered life without Rob Gronkowski.  It means close losses and anguishing moments in the red zone with the game on the line and no receivers getting themselves open.  This team is somehow 10-4 despite their problems in the passing game all year, and I'm telling you, they're not competing for a Super Bowl.  Not the way they struggle to find someone with some size to make a play when they need it.  It was unfair the last couple of years when they had two guys who fit that description, but now Gronk's hurt and Aaron Hernandez is doing the Jailhouse Rock.  The offense looked slower than usual, running more of a hustle-up than hurry-up, but Brady was efficient throughout the game.  The one time he hit a big guy for a red zone TD, it was Michael Hoomanawanui, and that's all you need to know about their lack of options.  NE looked to have the formula for shutting down the improved Dolphins offense, that is, hit Ryan Tannehill in the mouth.  But Miami shifted to calling everything out of shotgun, giving Tanny a little more time if he chose to throw, and it worked.  They sacked Tannehill again on the eventual game-winning drive, but then let him covert a 4th-and-5 to stay alive, then he beat LB Donta Hightower in coverage to win it.  Brady Bradied his way down the field to give the Pats a shot, but no Gronk in the end zone meant an INT to seal it.  Miami finally polished off the Patriots, as they should have in Foxborough.
• There sure is a lot of blame being spread around in Dallas for their latest gag job.  Let's make it a little simpler:  Jason Garrett is the head coach.  No matter that he says Tony Romo exercised bad judgment in checking out of a run play into a pass when Romo was picked off with the lead in the 4th quarter, allowing Green Bay to drive for the victory after being down 26-3 at halftime.  Garrett must have given him the right to exercise that judgment.  That's on Garrett.  Dallas all of a sudden remembered in the 2nd half that their defense sucks, and that can go on GM Jerry Jones, but lots of teams with bad defenses put opponents away by running the ball and keeping it away from the other guys.  Not those Cowboys.  They were on fire in the 1st half, getting big runs, then play-action into big passes, then big runs...oops, there's Romo nearly being picked off in the end zone in the midst of all that, but just a hiccup.  Green Bay and Matt Flynn were horribly off rhythm.  His passes all had no spice, like a pitcher who hadn't warmed up and was throwing everything four feet short of the plate.  It was a polished offense vs. a makeshift offense with a backup.  Wha happened??  Well, RB DeMarco Murray would disappear for long stretches while the Cowboys chucked the ball all around the place, and unless you convert all those throws, that's a good way to cough up a lead over time.  The Packers had two 80-yard TD drives to start the 2nd half, and to answer that 2nd TD, Dallas went with zero runs and got sacked.  Dez Bryant made another hellacious TD catch to put Dallas up two scores before the collapse.  He made news by leaving before the game ended with the Pack kneeling it out.  Why not?  The rest of the team had already left mentally, thanks to shitty coaching.
• Pittsburgh did show a last gasp of pride in beating the division-leading Cincinnati Bengals.  They had a big assist from the elements.  Ben Roethlisberger looked much more comfortable firing balls through the stiff wind coming off the three rivers, and Andy Dalton didn't adjust until the 2nd half, when his team was already way behind.  Of course Ben eventually had to go for the deep bomb and get picked off; it's one of his two fatal flaws, the other being holding on to the ball too long, but OC Todd Haley seems to have curtailed that.  It was another worrisome outing for Dalton.  He was woefully inaccurate for most of the evening because of some wind, and I wouldn't poo-poo it normally except Roethlisberger on the other side didn't seem to be much bothered.  It was the younger athletes you never heard of stuffing the run for the Steelers and creating the pass rush, so that's something to build on.  And Antonio Brown's a monster receiver.  They targeted Bengals CB Dre Kirkpatrick early and often, so score another one for Pro Football Focus.  I didn't like Pittsburgh's tentative running, penalties, and turnovers to start the 4th quarter because that's what teams who don't expect to be winning do, but they held on to their minuscule playoff hopes.  Cincinnati looks like they won't last long against tough teams or tough weather.
• You can have a lot of excitement and points with your choking dog team, like the Cowboys, or you can have a tense defensive struggle end with a gag, like what Detroit experienced on Monday night against the defending champs, who also hold on to playoff hopes with their win.  I Tweeted that the story of the game might be the referees if the Lions lost, because the Ravens benefited from some strange officiating, but make no mistake, Detroit coughing up a late lead is the focus because it was so predictable.  Whether is was Calvin Johnson not making use of his Megatron powers and dropping wide open passes or the always maddening 3rd-and-1 pass plays that don't work or the 4th-quarter bad decisions by Matthew Stafford, you knew somehow that the Lions were going to find a way to lose that game.  John Harbaugh made a choice worthy of his brother Jim's nickname, Coach Insane, when he ran the ball on 3rd-and-10 from the Detroit 45, setting up Justin Tucker for failure with a 61-yard FG attempt.  Except he didn't fail.  The manager went to his closer in an impossible situation for the save, and the closer went to work and got it done.  As for Matt Elam, the Baltimore DB who called Megatron old, he started roughly, picking up a personal foul and a big missed tackle on the opening drive, but Detroit's gonna Detroit, so Stafford threw Elam the INT to end the game after the Tucker FG.  All future Detroit opponents should call out the Lions before the game.  Can't hurt, unless you're the Cowboys, of course.

Week 15 Records--Dre 9-6-1, .600; Jay 7-8-1, .467
YTD Records--Dre 105-113-6, .482; Jay 113-105-6, .518

2013 Week #15

So this week I decided to try some new information to use in making my picks.  Enter Pro Football Focus, who list three things to focus on for every game.  I had my eyes opened by some of those things, and now my picks are a little weirder than usual.  But desperate times call for desperate measures.  Here's Week 15:

Fav	Spread	Dog	Final		Dre	Jay
	Thu. Nite
DEN (11-2)	10½	SD (6-7)	SD 27-20		Den	SD
	Sunday
Sea (11-2)	7	NYG (5-8)			Sea	NY
CLE (4-9)	Pk	Chi (7-6)			Chi	Chi
IND (8-5)	5	Hou (2-11)			Hou	Hou
Buf (4-9)	2½	JACK (4-9)			Buf	Jack
NE (10-3)	1	MIA (7-6)			Mia	NE
Phi (8-5)	6½	MIN (3-9-1)			Phi	Phi
ATL (3-10)	6	Wash (3-10)			Wash	Wash
SF (9-4)	5	TB (4-9)			SF	SF
KC (10-3)	5	OAK (4-9)			Oak	KC
CAR (9-4)	10	NYJ (6-7)			Car	Car
DAL (7-6)	6½	GB (6-6-1)			GB	GB
NO (10-3)	6½	STL (5-8)			NO	NO
Ariz (8-5)	2½	TENN (5-8)			Tenn	Tenn
	Sun. Nite
Cin (9-4)	1½	PIT (5-8)			Pit	Cin
	Mon. Nite
DET (7-6)	6	Bal (7-6)			Bal	Bal

All of our thoughts and observations will be heard on the podcast live at 10P Central:  blogtalkradio.com/inmuchlessdetail

2013 Week 14: What I Learned

• We all learned to bet with Jason's picks in weeks where he goes to a game, because we all would have been rich if we did.  Or something like that.  Oh, and his Dome Team Theory held water:  Dome teams playing in cold and/or snow were 0-4 Sunday, but 2-2 ATS, and one of those ATS wins was the Falcons, who Jay told you to take.  So he was 3-1 ATS using his theory, missing only the Vikings in that batshit crazy game in Baltimore.  If you extend it out to warm-weather teams playing in icy conditions, that was an additional 1-2 SU and ATS, with only the Fins punking the Steelers as a W.
• Games in no detail:  Toxins-Jaguars (I think Gary Kubiak gave Mike Shanahan the blueprint on how to fuck around with the QBs and get your ass fired); Bills-Buccaneers (where was this ball-hogging D for Tampa all season??); Browns-Patriots (and yet another slow start for the Pats, but the comeback wins should end with the loss of Gronkowski); Raiders-Jets (it's a win, I'll take it); Rams-Cardinals (INT Santa's elbow is either just fine or it makes him accurate when it hurts); Giants-Chargers (I'm done with the G-Men this year, they're dead to me).
• Minnesota keeps fighting for their coach Leslie Frazier, and while it's sweet, it won't keep him employed in the Twin Cities.  It's hard to blame him for this loss in Baltimore, but it goes on his record just the same.  It was a story of speedy athletes in snow and ice making a straight line ahead and daring anyone to stop them, and this was repeated throughout the league.  The names in this one were Jones, Patterson, and Brown, but the point was, once the fast guys figured out the bad turf would hurt the defenders who weren't coordinated enough to slow them, they started flying up and down the field playing Catch Me If You Can.  The Ravens happened to have the ball last.
• Washington's defense and special teams were THE DRIZZLING SHITS the likes of which I don't think I've seen in a long time.  That's one of the worst combos of D and special teams I've ever seen.  The D wasn't tackling and the ST weren't filling their gaps at all against Kansas City.  I've been known to be stubborn when I latch onto an idea that maybe keeps getting proved wrong in my face, but I don't care:  I still don't think the Chiefs are very good.  But against the Real Housewives of DC, they were awesome in all phases.  The drama has continued today as Mike Shanahan has announced that Robert Griffin III will not be played the rest of the season not because he's hurt, but because Shanny doesn't want to risk him getting hurt, which is almost legit if we're talking Week 17 with no playoffs in sight, but is complete bullshit in Week 15.  Shanny just wants to get fired by owner Dan Snyder and get all the cash he's owed next year.  I'm betting he'll get his wish.
• Once again, Pittsburgh had a shot to climb the ladder to an improbable playoff berth after a slow start, and once again, they chose the wrong time to look old and slow on defense as well as to stop protecting Ben Roethlisberger.  Miami had no problems with the cold and snow because they were playing a team that refused to tackle them.  The Steelers hardly made any stops against the Dolphins running or passing with the exception of Troy Polamalu's turn-back-the-clock Pick-6.  But Troy ultimately failed to bring down TE Charles Clay on an easy tackle, allowing the game-winning score.  The tackling is really the only reason why the Dolphins covered the number in a shootout.  The reason they won the game is because Antonio Brown got confused and stepped out of bounds on the last scramble of the game before he scored.  First coach Mike Tomlin in Baltimore, now Brown.  That sideline for Pittsburgh is jinxed.
• Here's the top example of a great athlete figuring out the bad surface and taking advantage:  Eagles RB LeSean McCoy, who was THE SHIT against Detroit.  He ran for 148 yards in the 4th quarter alone and had two awesome TD runs as Philadelphia scored all 34 of its points in the 2nd half.  Jeremy Ross figured it out for the Lions, running a KO return and punt return for TDs in a constant snowstorm that measured six to eight inches on the field, and yes, that's above average.  But if you don't have a runner like McCoy, you can't match his production, and Reggie Bush wasn't active for the game.  As hard as Joique Bell ran for the Lions, he didn't have the speed or moves to break out.  Detroit's pass attack didn't just have issues throwing, but just snapping the ball to Matthew Stafford.  For Lions center Dominic Raiola, longtime asshole, a day like that couldn't have happened to a nicer guy.
• Snow was not an issue in Cincinnati, but it was very cold, and the Colts weren't up for the challenge.  I'm about ready to throw up my hands trying to figure out Andy Dalton.  He was damn near flawless in this game.  His throws and decision making seemed to be as sharp as I've ever seen him.  I know Indianapolis doesn't have the most stout defense, but Dalton threw on them like they were a juco team.  Cincy had a bad day tackling or else this would have been even more of a blowout, as two of Andrew Luck's TD passes were plays where the receiver was surrounded by defenders after he made the catch and he broke arm tackles to take it to the house.  I think that's more of an indictment of the Bengals than credit for the great football skills of LaVon Brazill and Da'Rick Rogers.
• Look out Lions, the Pack is back!  Well, maybe not if Aaron Rodgers doesn't take the field soon, but Green Bay did pull through and beat Atlanta to move within a half-game of Detroit in the NFC North.  The Falcons for the second week in a row played much better than I thought they would.  Their blitz got home and affected Matt Flynn, but Green Bay's pass rush couldn't get to Matt Ryan in the 1st half.  Flynn wasn't half bad when he had time to operate.  But Atlanta getting the lead allowed them to pass rush and blitz, and they loved that.  Only a Packers sack-fumble allowed them to take the lead, and the D held on.  They couldn't find one more score in the game to cover the spread for me because they're still mediocre without Rodgers.  Jason will have a report on the experience at 9° Lambeau Field on tonight's podcast.
• The final word on Peyton Manning's throwing arm in cold weather appears to be:  Unless you have the world's greatest cover corners, it doesn't matter what the temperature is.  And no lead is safe.  Tennessee became the second team this season to be a double-digit underdog at Denver, have a lead at halftime, and wind up not coming anywhere close to covering the Goddamn number, after Washington in Week 8.  Guess what moron was picking the 'dog both times?  This guy.  Peyton's unbelievable unless I'm picking him is the lesson to learn here, I guess.
• Intensity and physicality was the order of the day in San Francisco, where the 49ers managed to beat an 11-1 team and not cover the spread.  Oh wait, I was picking them too.  No wonder.  If Frank Gore doesn't blow a tire on that 51-yard run in the 4th quarter, he scores and San Fran does cover, but that would have only happened if Jason picked them.  I think I learned what it will take to beat Seattle:  You actually don't want to pass rush Russell Wilson.  He appeared to be much better throwing the ball on the run than standing in the pocket with his WRs covered tightly.  Once he breaks the pocket, his receivers can scramble and get away from the coverage and make themselves open.  Not to mention Wilson's ability to kill you running in the open field after your pass rush has sprinted by him.  As for Colin Kaepernick, he's not as good as Wilson right now partially because his throws need more touch.  He can get a ball between defenders in zone, but only because he's got big guys catching (Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin, Mario Manningham).  He doesn't like pressure even though he's probably faster than Wilson and would invite the chance to run from blitzers.  It looked like the Seahawks got flagged for defensive holding much more than usual, perhaps because they were on the road and the referees were more aware of the clutching and grabbing.  It would explain why of Kaep's eight INTs this year, four are to Seattle.  But if the refs call the DBs for that, it makes Seattle much more vulnerable.  And why did the Niners run Gore only 17 times?
• Yes, Jay rode the Carolina bandwagon right off the side of the mountain.  Glad to know someone other than me can do that.  It took about a quarter for New Orleans to match Carolina's defensive speed and intensity on offense, but they dominated from the 2nd quarter on, from the offensive line to the route running of the WRs to Drew Brees' throws.  Sean Payton at one point chose to keep a play that gained seven yards rather than take a penalty on the Panthers that would have given the Saints five yards and an automatic first down.  That's either a confused head coach or an arrogant one, but the Saints could do no wrong Sunday night.  Cam Newton only had a couple of long bomb attempts, and they were inaccurate, and you're not catching the Saints in the Superdome without accurate throws downfield.  There was more misdirection than normal from the Saints, but it did serve to slow down the Panthers pass rush.  Let's see if they use that again in two weeks in Charlotte.
• The score in Chicago was shocking considering how easy Dallas came out running against the worst rush D in football.  DeMarco Murray ran for 19 yards on the first play from scrimmage and 52 yards on the opening drive, where Dez Bryant scored a TD to make it 7-0.  Murray finished the game with only 146 yards rushing, and the Bears finished up 17 without ever having to punt.  Yeah, the Dallas braintrust fucked up again.  Why would they go away from the run on a cold, windy night?  What past Tony Romo December performances made them think using him was the way to win this game?  The Cowboys started having some infighting eventually once the offense started grinding to a halt, which is not surprising.  Josh McCown?  That's surprising.  He continues to make the right decision, whatever it may be, even running for nice gains.  He has sold his soul to the devil obviously.  Lots of Tweets on Monday night that Jay Cutler should be cut loose by Chicago in order to keep McCown long term.  That, of course, is stupid, but McCown's play has been so superb that it's understandable to come to that conclusion.  And with the Lions breaking down before our eyes, it may come down to Cutler being ready in Week 16 or 17 with the division on the line and Marc Trestman having to make that choice.  I don't envy him.  If the Bears lose that potential clinching game, people will totally overlook the terrible Chicago defense and claim that Trestman chose the wrong QB.  If only it were that simple.

Week 14 Records--Dre 6-10, .375; Jay 12-4, .750
YTD Records--Dre 96-107-5, .473; Jay 106-97-5, .522

Week 14 ATS Recap: Ice, Ice Baby

Picks We Both Won (4)

• Jaguars (+3) 27, Texans 20 - How sad is it that THIS was one of the games we were in undeniable agreement on? Gary Kubiak didn't make it through Friday after the Hottest Team in Florida (Part I) sent the Toxins on a clear path to the #1 pick in the draft.
• Eagles (-2½) 34, Lions 20 - Only the Lions could go on the road in piles of snow and look like a team that has everything under control and then promptly give up 28 4th quarter points and send the NFC North race into a three game sprint to the finish. Detroit is clearly a team that is mentally weak and simply refuses to take advantage of prosperity.
• Bengals (-6½) 42, Colts 28 - You knew there was no way the dome team from Indy was going to go in to Cincinnati and come out on top. Our weather theme worked wonderfully this week.
• Bears (-1) 45, Cowboys 28 - Neither team played any defense, but one team played LESS than no defense, and that would be the Dallas Cowboys. Josh Luke Cade McClown torched the Dallas secondary all night, and even the Great Sean Lee was no match for the circus catch reel that is Alshon Jeffery. Jason Garrett outcoached himself as well, abandoning the run in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, which is odd since the Bears have ZERO run D. While the Cowboys were punting, the Bears managed to score on every possession of the night, not once having to punt.

Picks We Both Lost (2)

• Ravens 29, Vikings (+7) 26 - At the 2:05 mark of the 4th quarter, the Ravens scored and added a two point conversion to take a 15-12 lead in the cold and snow. All they needed to do was clamp down and hang on for the win. Then the game went BATSHIT INSANE!!! as each team scored 2 touchdowns apiece in the final 125 seconds. It wasn't football at all, but damn was it exciting.
• Dolphins (+3) 34, Steelers 28 - Although I'm not totally sure that the last lateral of the Lateralpalooza finish of the game was indeed a lateral, it was tough to see Antonio Brown just barely step out of bounds to take away what might have been the winning score for the Steelers. Miami continues their ascent back to mediocrity, taking advantage of a light schedule, and the Hottest Team in Florida (Part II) is firmly in the wild card race in the AFC.

Picks Dre Won Head to Head (2)

• Jets (-3) 37, Raiders 27 - I deviated from my weather strategy on two games this week and ended up splitting them, so I can't feel so bad that Geno Smith decided to shed his turnover ways for long enough to guide the Jets to their (still shocking to me) 6th win.
• Saints (-3) 31, Panthers 13 - Dre telegraphed this pick all week, but he was right to jump off the Panthers. They simply cannot score enough points against a high octane offense like New Orleans, especially on the fast track. The Panthers are a nice story and play enough D that they could make waves in the postseason, but the end of their line would seem to be in Seattle or New Orleans.

Picks I Won Head to Head (8)

• Chiefs (-3) 45, Redskins 10 - After a tough three game stretch, the Chiefs got back to doing what got them to a 9-0 start: slaughtering the dogs. The only thing that would make this team more appropriate would be if Mike Vick followed Andy Reid to KC. Meanwhile, the Shanny Watch is in full swing, as it looks like Mike Shanahan is going to go all suicide-by-cop in DC. My best guess is that he WANTS to be fired and be done with RG3 and Daniel Snyder but still get paid, of course.
• Bucs (-2½) 27, Bills 6 - Mike Glennon went 9 of 25 passing for 90 yards and Tampa won by three touchdowns. OK then. Fortunately for them, they had Bobby Rainey, the next-man-up in the MASH unit Bucs running back stable, to carry the load the QB couldn't. The Bills continue to mystify, but this week were no match for Hottest Team in Florida (Part III).
• Patriots 27, Browns (+11) 26 - Sure, the Patriots had another one of their patented mad dash comebacks, but the story to me was the obvious difference in Cleveland whenever ANYONE who is not Brandon Weeden steps under center. Call it premature, but if the Browns can get that position solidified, they could be a Houston Texans Memorial team going in to 2014. You heard it here first. Oh, and the Pats lost Gronk for the season. They're fucked.
• Packers 22, Falcons (+3½) 21 - A game with no meaning suddenly looked huge as the Lions shit the bed in Philly. A fluky pick-6 put the Falcons up 11 at the half, but they were clearly doing nothing on offense after an early TD drive. Matt Flynn was shredding the Falcon D all day, and the Packers chipped away with field goals until taking a late lead and hanging on for dear life as the Falcons couldn't get into FG position into a stiff wind. Now only half a game back in the NFC North, the Packers still have a realistic shot at winning the division, but only if Aaron Rodgers makes it back, and soon.
• Broncos (-12) 51, Titans 28 - Denver is just too loaded to lose a shootout to Ryan Fitzpatrick. End of story.
• Cardinals (-6) 30, Rams 10 - Shocking Stat of the Week: Carson Palmer AKA Interception Santa didn't throw a single pick! With a defense like the Cards have, if Palmer doesn't screw the pooch, chances are good 'Zona will win.
• Niners 19, Seahawks (+2½) 17 - Yep, total cheap backdoor cover! I love it. Still, I will not sell short on Seattle as they were the "playing for nothing" team in this game and almost walked out of San Fran with the W anyways. The Niners were jacked up all game long, and their best punch barely won the game. If there is a next meeting, it will be in Seattle, and we all know how that will go.
• Chargers (-3) 37, Giants 14 - All the air came out of the Giants sails after the loss against Dallas, in my opinion. San Diego was still hanging on to a tiny thread of playoff hope and looked like it, as Philip Rivers continues to have the best season nobody talks about, primarly because of the Chargers no-account defense, and losing record.

I can't wait to hear Dre's breakdown of this week on the podcast Wednesday night. Or maybe it will just be a breakdown in general.

Jay 12-4
Dre 6-9

2013 Week #14

Jay and I can't seem to stop disagreeing with each other.  We're heads up on ten of the 15 remaining games this week.  Once again, I can make up a lot of ground...or get curb-stomped.  Here are our picks for NFL Week 14:

Fav	Spread	Dog	Final		Dre	Jay
	Thu. Nite
Hou (2-10)	3	JACK (3-9)	Jack 27-20		Jack	Jack
	Sunday
BAL (6-6)	7	Min (3-8-1)			Bal	Bal
KC (9-3)	3	WASH (3-9)			Wash	KC
TB (3-9)	2½	Buf (4-8)			Buf	TB
PIT (5-7)	3	Mia (6-6)			Pit	Pit
PHI (7-5)	2½	Det (7-5)			Phi	Phi
CIN (8-4)	6½	Ind (8-4)			Cin	Cin
NE (9-3)	11	Cle (4-8)			NE	Cle
NYJ (5-7)	3	Oak (4-8)			NY	Oak
GB (5-6-1)	3½	Atl (3-9)			GB	Atl
DEN (10-2)	12	Tenn (5-7)			Tenn	Den
ARIZ (7-5)	6	StL (5-7)			StL	Ariz
SF (8-4)	2½	Sea (11-1)			SF	Sea
SD (5-7)	3	NYG (5-7)			NY	SD
	Sun. Nite
NO (9-3)	3	Car (9-3)			NO	Car
	Mon. Nite
CHI (6-6)	1	Dal (7-5)			Chi	Chi

All of our thoughts and observations can be heard in thirteen minutes right here:  blogtalkradio.com/inmuchlessdetail

2013 Week 13: What I Learned

• Games in no detail:  Buccaneers-Panthers (no contest but I still think Panthers are peaking too soon); Dolphins-Jets (are there any competent QBs in the Jets organization??  No?  Oh, okay, and that whole team is THE DRIZZLING SHITS); Falcons-Bills (wait, Roddy White's still alive???).
• The Thanksgiving wrap-up was basically covered on the podcast Saturday, Nov. 30 before we made the rest of our picks (listen in the archives at the above link or subscribe to In Much Less Detail:  The Podcast via iTunes--what are you waiting for?!).  I'll add this about the Packers-Lions game:  I was disappointed in Green Bay's inability to keep up their intensity despite the efforts of their QB Matt Flynn.  About the 2nd quarter, the Pack defense started figuring out that no matter how many plays they made, Flynn was not going to make them count for anything, so they almost stopped playing, and oops, Detroit won by 30.  As for the only thing being talked about from the Steelers-Ravens game, the Mike Tomlin interference that wasn't called, I admit that initially I got very mad because Jacoby Jones had a return TD no sweat that would have put Baltimore back in front by enough to cover the spread and all of a sudden he's caught from behind.  Replays did make it look like Jones swerved inside to avoid Tomlin, making him susceptible to being ran down.  But the more I thought about it, I think that's on Jones to keep fucking running.  What's gonna happen if he runs into Tomlin?  There will be a penalty on Tomlin and maybe the refs award the TD to Jones anyway.  It's a quick decision to make, so I'm not going to kill Jacoby, but I think he should have kept straight down the sideline and put the pressure on Tomlin to move his ass quickly or on the zebras to make a call if Tomlin does clip him.  Then again, the zebras had a really rough game and weekend, so maybe you don't want to put even more on their plates.
• Tennessee and Indianapolis exposed holes that each team has that shows neither are anywhere near good enough to make an impact in the playoffs this year.  But it was still a hard-fought, even contest.  The Titans tried to blitz Andrew Luck to death, and they did succeed in keeping the Colts out of the end zone while the Titans scuffled on offense.  Chris Johnson got no holes to run, showing his biggest weakness--no desire to make plays if he doesn't have room to roam.  Indy had three possessions of good yardage in the 1st half that then failed to make it into the red zone because Tennessee jacked up the pressure.  And Donald Brown as feature back for the Colts didn't work because he wasn't serving as a change-of-pace to the bruising Trent Richardson.  Trent didn't beat up the Titans and soften them up for Brown to fly past.  When Indy needed to pass, they offered terrible protection, which is why Luck eventually became his own 3rd-down yardage gainer.  He'll get brutalized in the playoffs doing that.  Tennessee probably should have won the game, except their QB Ryan Fitzpatrick couldn't hold on to the football.  I was left shaking my head at the end because I was so underwhelmed by both teams.
• Why would I pay attention to the Jags-Browns game?  Because I wanted to see how the hell a good Cleveland defense gave up 32 points to Jacksonville.  And as Jason said when changing his pick from the Browns to the Jaguars, it's all about Brandon Weeden finding ways to screw up.  The Jags secondary was so bad, they made Weeden look good early, and Josh Gordon couldn't have been happier.  The Browns D did get pushed around in the run game, setting up play-action for Chad Henne to make some plays, but almost all of Jacksonville's drives were set up by Weeden looking elsewhere other than Gordon and getting picked off or stripped repeatedly.  He's really bad.  Like, almost Geno Smith bad.  With all of that, Gordon won the game for Cleveland in the last few minutes with an awesome catch-and-run TD, and the great CB Joe Haden lost it with atrocious coverage of Cecil Shorts III in the final minute.  I have no idea who's starting for Cleveland at QB for the next game, but they're determined to claim that Weeden was "concussed" in this game and can't go.  Riiiight.
• Don't trust in Trest to make important game decisions in crunch time.  Marc Trestman appeared to have lost the game for Chicago in OT by choosing to send Robbie Gould out for a 47-yard FG on 2nd down in Minnesota.  He's been defending the decision in the media since then, but there's no defense.  You've installed perhaps the most prolific offense in Bears history, and you're scared to gain more yardage to make the FG try shorter??  Honestly, that's bullshit.  Even Lovie Smith wouldn't have been that stupid.  No, there's no guarantee that the Bears wouldn't have fumbled the ball or gotten picked off or lost yardage, but really, if you're that afraid of turnovers, you're in the wrong profession.  Gould missed the kick, the Vikings and Adrian Peterson rumbled down the other way, and Blair Walsh made his FG to win the game for Minny.  Chicago fell back to 6-6 and probably out of the playoffs, but they really don't deserve to be in the playoffs anyway with that run defense and coaching.  To get gouged by Peterson when you know what's coming, and to get pierced through the air by Matt Cassel as well, and to still have a great chance to win the game, and piss it away like that...that's terrible.  I guess I can eat crow for claiming the Vikings were quitting on Leslie Frazier.  They still suck.
• Philadelphia's defensive line came to play in giving the Eagles their second straight home win, this one over Arizona.  Nick Foles has been money at QB for the Eagles ever since taking over for Michael Vick, but it's been Philly's D that's been a problem all year.  If they can get penetration at the line of scrimmage like they did in this one, they'll be formidable.  I forgot Trent Cole was still active.  The Cardinals will have to tighten their protection up majorly if they want to keep Interception Santa upright, and as much fun as we make of Carson Palmer, any chance Arizona has will drain away if Palmer gets injured.  He kept up his recent good performance, but his turnovers ultimately were fatal, along with Arizona's LB coverage, of lack thereof.  There was a questionable penalty at the end that overturned a Cards INT and gave the Eagles a free first down, but hey, bad calls happen.  If Arizona had a clue how to cover Zach Ertz or Brent Celek, it wouldn't have come to that.
• Why the hell did Tom Brady need to throw for 371 yards in order for New England to eek out a win over the pathetic Toxins??  Another slow start by the Patriots, another lead to overcome, another look at how less-than-awesome New England has been all season.  They didn't even activate RB Stevan Ridley, he of the fumble-itis from last week, and I wasn't surprised that Bill Belichick did that.  You fumble a lot, star or not, he will decide to not play your ass, and Ridley may be cut once the season's over.  I think they could have used him, as I'm not impressed by Shane Vereen or LeGarrette Blount.  If you want to take one good thing away for NE, it's that Brady can even get up to 371 yards and put together a win through the air.  He maybe couldn't have done this in Week 3 or 6.  But Julian Edelman has become reliable, and obviously Rob Gronkowski is a huge addition.  But you can't have a lot of confidence in New England going forward.  There's too many very important things wrong with them right now, and not a lot of time to get them right.
• San Francisco didn't put up 371 yards through the air on St. Louis, but make no mistake, they looked much more dangerous through the air with the addition of WR Michael Crabtree, finally healthy after not playing all season.  Yeah, he would have scored a TD on that long catch down the sideline if he were all the way back from his foot issues, but hey, how many wide open sideline throws has Colin Kaepernick had this year with anyone else??  Kaep didn't look like the best QB ever (shout out to Ron Jaworski--nope, you're never living that one down, buddy), but he did look much less anxious when in the pocket.  Funny how having more than two passing options will do that.  The Rams look like they're building an offense in the New Orleans mold, where they look much less dangerous off the turf.  Having Kellen Clemens as your QB also makes you less dangerous, as does running the ugliest-looking fake punt in history.  They were outclassed all the way in this one.
• Kansas City needs to start worrying now.  Their offense has looked amazing for two weeks in a row now, and everyone says their defense is very good, and yet they've lost three games in a row now.  This is what happens when you don't play against shitty backup quarterbacks.  It was all KC early against Denver.  Broncos RB Knowshon Moreno looked beat up as I thought he might, although he would make a couple of big plays later.  The Chiefs laid hands on Peyton Manning, although it took a safety blitz to do so, but still couldn't sack him.  However, the next throw after they knocked him on his ass was an INT into double coverage.  Peyton then figured out that he shouldn't deviate from short quick passes, so he started slicing up KC, then even without much of a running game, he executed play-action bombs to Eric Decker over and over and over again.  Decker was THE SHIT no matter who was covering him.  It was mostly Marcus Cooper getting embarrassed, but sometimes Brandon Flowers and others.  Kansas City went from up 21-7 in the 2nd quarter and dominating to down 35-21 and asphyxiating.  The Denver D made enough plays to shut down Alex Smith and the Chiefs, but it looked like Peyton Manning's awesomeness froze KC more than the defense.  Every TD throw crushed them more and more until they had no time to recover.  And with their lack of experience at being a championship team, I bet every time KC gets punched in the mouth the rest of the season, they will hear the voices in their head telling them they're flukes and not good enough, and it will start waves of panic throughout the team.  Watch.
• I'm not sure why Cincinnati felt the need to come out of their bye in San Diego with a lot of fluffy offensive tricks, but it almost cost them the win.  Lots of fakes and read-options and short screens gave Andy Dalton and the Bengals a grand total of seven points at halftime against a defense that ranked near the bottom of the NFL coming in.  They handled Philip Rivers and the Chargers offense because the rested pass rush generated great pressure.  Rivers adjusted in the second half and threw quicker, but lucky for Cincy, Antonio Gates couldn't hold on to the pill.  When it was time to straighten up and just make winning plays in the 2nd half, Dalton dropped back and threw down the middle to A.J. Green, who had no defenders within five yards of him, for the game-winning TD.  See how fucking easy that was?  If they did that from the jump, the Bengals probably would have scored 40.  Sometimes genius coaches, like Cincy OC Jay Gruden, outthink themselves.
• Much better running and flexibility by Robert Griffin III gave Washington an advantage against the New York Giants, but much better pass rushing by the Giant Justin Tuck and typical Redskins defense erased that advantage.  Washington dropped to 0-5 in their night games this year because they didn't protect their star QB when he wasn't breaking contain and making plays with his feet.  He can't do that every single play.  Even Eli Manning, bad as he's been all year, was able to mount a comeback on this D, but the Skins had a shot on the last possession to steal it.  The referees became all-time confused, however, and one of them gave Washington a 1st down and moved the chains on his side of the field while the others called it 3rd and short on the other side.  When the next pass was incomplete, Mike Shanahan and the Skins were stunned to find that it was now 4th down instead of 2nd.  Here's the thing:  That incomplete pass was a perfect pass to TE Fred Davis that he dropped because he's Fred Davis.  Then once the confusion was settled, the 4th-down throw was complete to Pierre Garcon...who promptly coughed the ball up to Will Hill for a turnover that ended the game.  So twice after they had what they were told was a 1st down taken away, RG3 made the throw to give them an actual 1st down, and the Giants wound up with the football.  The refs fucked up the chain situation royally.  The Skins then fucked up the comeback effort by being incompetent.
• New Orleans had absolutely no chance in Seattle from start to finish.  None.  Total beatdown.  What did it mean?  It meant that if the Saints have to go through Seattle in the playoffs, they can forget it.  Percy Harvin wasn't even in this game for the Seahawks, and neither were CBs Brandon Browner or Walter Thurmond III.  New Orleans had all their weapons, and still had no chance.  It was quite the spectacle of two teams who just aren't nearly as formidable outside of their home stadiums.  I think if Seattle had to go through New Orleans in the playoffs, based on what I've seen from the Seahawks on the road this season and in the past, I'd pick New Orleans and give whatever points you want.  Hell, the Hawks have to go to San Francisco next week, and they might be favored based on this outing.  Be careful that you know what you're watching.  Week 6 last year, the Hawks knocked off Tom Brady and the Pats at home in a big comeback victory, asserting themselves as a force to be reckoned with, and followed that by going to San Francisco and scoring...wait for it...6 points!  You think they're going to fare much better this year?

Week 13 Records--Dre 8-7-1, .533; Jay 5-10-1, .333
YTD Records-- Dre 90-97-5, .481; Jay 94-93-5, .503