Week 17 ATS Recap: The Revenge of Coin

Ah, week 17. A week so crazy and unpredictable that we compete against the flip of a coin to poke fun at how there is no way to know just how the week will play out. Games that look meaningful become rendered meaningless by the result of other games. Some teams are already on the golf course. Some teams are in preseason mode, holding out their best players for their playoff runs, while others are playing for simple pride or a chance to spare their coach a firing.

So, of course, Coin won the weeks picks with an 11-5 record (after a 12-4 last season) which leaves me wondering if I should take that dime to Vegas every Week 17.

One last time for the regular season:

Picks We Both Won (5)

• Panthers 21, Falcons (+5½) 20 - The Panthers racked up 9 sacks of Matt Ryan, and that pressure thanks to a swiss-cheese Falcon O-line was the only reason that Carolina escaped with the NFC South title. The Falcons finished up 4-12, but played much tougher over their last 6 games, unable to win many games but racking up a ton of covers over that span. The Panthers will have some major work to do. I'm on the fence as to how they can perform in the playoffs, and squeaking out a win against a wounded Atlanta team didn't impress me.
• Bengals (-6½) 34, Ravens 17 - By smoking the Ravens, the Bengals earned themselves a home date with San Diego next weekend and also eliminated the Champs from the postseason. A juggernaut at home, Cincy never relented against a deeply flawed Raven team and poured it on after the Ravens tied it up at 17 in the third quarter.
• Packers (-3) 33, Bears 28 - We've spent a lot of time on the NFC North in recent podcasts. When it came to crunch time, Dre and I saw it the same way: the Packers getting Aaron Rodgers back would be the difference against the Bears, even in Chicago. With all that being said, Jay Cutler and the Bears were up 28-27 with 4 minutes left in the game. The Packers proceeded to go on a game winning drive that saw them convert three 4th downs (including one at their own 29 yard line), the last of which was the "dagger" throw from Rodgers to an impossibly wide open X-Factor Randall Cobb for a 48 yard touchdown. Right on schedule, the Bear faithful were quick to hop on the play of Cutler, but the Bears defense was what lost them this game. Dre and I often joke about the Bears "Cover Zero" defense, where opposing wideouts are left running free through the secondary. We even commented a couple weeks back that we hadn't seen it yet this year. The Bears picked their last defensive snap of the season to roll it out, and it was a backbreaker.
• Saints (-11) 42, Buccaneers 17 - The Saints needed a win to ensure their spot in the postseason, and they did not let Tampa even into the game. Drew Brees unloaded on the woeful Bucs, and the worst pass offense in the league resides in Tampa, and they could not compete. The Saints are a major force at home, but their destiny lies on the road if they are to make it to the Super Bowl.
• Eagles 24, Cowboys (+7) 22 - I don't get too invested in games that don't involve teams I have a rooting interest in, but I found myself rooting for Kyle Orton to pull off the upset Sunday Night. Dallas gave Philadelphia all it could handle, but Orton pulled a Romo at the end of the game, throwing the crushing pick to wrap up the NFC East for the Eagles. The Cowboys played their usual stupid brand of football all season long, and ultimately did not deserve to win the game, or the division. The best team won.

Picks We Both Lost (5)

• Steelers (-7) 20, Browns 7 - Pittsburgh came some crazy shit in San Diego away from making the playoffs, but I'm glad they didn't.
• Giants (-3½) 20, Redskins 6 - The G-Men thankfully put the last nail in the Shanahan coffin, as well as in the Kirk Cousins hype machine. Cousins managed a very Josh Freeman-like 38.8% completion rate, with zero TDs and two picks. Let's hope sanity finds its way back to DC, because I do believe RG3 is a unique talent in this league.
• Colts (-10½) 30, Jaguars 10 - We doubted the Colts could cover 10 against any team. So did we underestimate the Colts or overestimate the Jaguars? Sadly, I don't know, which leaves me still wondering which Colt team we will get against the Chiefs this weekend.
• Jets (+5½) 20, Dolphins 7 - Ryan Tannehill picked an awful moment to go back to being the choker he was in big games earlier in the season. Needing only a win against the "Oh God Geno Smith"-led Jets, Miami never looked on track. The Jets played like one of those teams fighting for their coach, which is an overused term, but here it applies. It looks like it worked too, as Rex Ryan has thus far avoided the chopping block.
• Niners (PICK) 23, Cardinals 20 - As the blowout raged in New Orleans, this games meaning dwindled. The Cards will head into the offseason as a 10-6 team that missed the playoffs, but have nothing to be ashamed of. San Fran will head to Green Bay for a rematch of last years Division round matchup where Colin Kaepernick ran the Packers out of the building.

Picks Dre Won Head to Head (1)

• Broncos (-11) 34, Raiders 14 - Peyton Manning put the cherry on top of the best statistical regular season by a QB in history AND the Bronocs wrapped up the #1 seed in the AFC. Just another day at the office for these Broncos. Unfortunately, they carry the weight of last years miracle playoff exit against the Ravens as well as Mannings predilection for being great in regular season and an easy out in the playoffs.

Picks I Won Head to Head (5)

• Titans 16, Toxins (+7) 10 - Can I get a "fuck yeah!!!" for cheap-ass covers!
• Vikings 14, Lions (+3) 13 - Can I get a DOUBLE "fuck yeah"!!!!!!!!
• Patriots (-7½) 34, Bills 20 - The Bills were surprisingly game until LaGarrette Blount punched his way to the end zone from 35 yards out to put this one out of reach. The Patriots may be the weakest #2 seed I've ever seen, but kudos to Belichick and Brady for keeping this steaming pile on top of the competition.
• Chargers 27, Chiefs (+9½) 24 (OT) - I chalk this up as one of those ridiculous week 17 spreads that would never have happened the OTHER 16 weeks of the year. The Chefs might have been cruising to their #5 seed, but they still have talent on both sides of the football, and only lost the game thanks to the buffoonery of the officials, missing penalties AND turnovers late in the contest. I'm still glad the Chargers won and made the playoffs because they were the most fun team left of the 4 AFC wild-card contenders.
• Seahawks (-11½) 27, Rams 9 - We may have our legitimate doubts about the Seattle offense, but there is no denying that their defense is the best in football. They held the Rams to 158 yards of TOTAL offense, which makes Roger Goodell cry inside since he loves the offensive bukkake going on all over NFL fields. I figured Seattle for being a little PO'd after losing at home to the Cardinals, and now that they have home field wrapped up, I'd lay some serious odds that we will be seeing the Seahawks in Febraury.

Jason 10-6
Dre 6-10
Fucking Coin 11-5

See you in the playoffs.