Week 14 ATS Recap: Ice, Ice Baby

Picks We Both Won (4)

• Jaguars (+3) 27, Texans 20 - How sad is it that THIS was one of the games we were in undeniable agreement on? Gary Kubiak didn't make it through Friday after the Hottest Team in Florida (Part I) sent the Toxins on a clear path to the #1 pick in the draft.
• Eagles (-2½) 34, Lions 20 - Only the Lions could go on the road in piles of snow and look like a team that has everything under control and then promptly give up 28 4th quarter points and send the NFC North race into a three game sprint to the finish. Detroit is clearly a team that is mentally weak and simply refuses to take advantage of prosperity.
• Bengals (-6½) 42, Colts 28 - You knew there was no way the dome team from Indy was going to go in to Cincinnati and come out on top. Our weather theme worked wonderfully this week.
• Bears (-1) 45, Cowboys 28 - Neither team played any defense, but one team played LESS than no defense, and that would be the Dallas Cowboys. Josh Luke Cade McClown torched the Dallas secondary all night, and even the Great Sean Lee was no match for the circus catch reel that is Alshon Jeffery. Jason Garrett outcoached himself as well, abandoning the run in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, which is odd since the Bears have ZERO run D. While the Cowboys were punting, the Bears managed to score on every possession of the night, not once having to punt.

Picks We Both Lost (2)

• Ravens 29, Vikings (+7) 26 - At the 2:05 mark of the 4th quarter, the Ravens scored and added a two point conversion to take a 15-12 lead in the cold and snow. All they needed to do was clamp down and hang on for the win. Then the game went BATSHIT INSANE!!! as each team scored 2 touchdowns apiece in the final 125 seconds. It wasn't football at all, but damn was it exciting.
• Dolphins (+3) 34, Steelers 28 - Although I'm not totally sure that the last lateral of the Lateralpalooza finish of the game was indeed a lateral, it was tough to see Antonio Brown just barely step out of bounds to take away what might have been the winning score for the Steelers. Miami continues their ascent back to mediocrity, taking advantage of a light schedule, and the Hottest Team in Florida (Part II) is firmly in the wild card race in the AFC.

Picks Dre Won Head to Head (2)

• Jets (-3) 37, Raiders 27 - I deviated from my weather strategy on two games this week and ended up splitting them, so I can't feel so bad that Geno Smith decided to shed his turnover ways for long enough to guide the Jets to their (still shocking to me) 6th win.
• Saints (-3) 31, Panthers 13 - Dre telegraphed this pick all week, but he was right to jump off the Panthers. They simply cannot score enough points against a high octane offense like New Orleans, especially on the fast track. The Panthers are a nice story and play enough D that they could make waves in the postseason, but the end of their line would seem to be in Seattle or New Orleans.

Picks I Won Head to Head (8)

• Chiefs (-3) 45, Redskins 10 - After a tough three game stretch, the Chiefs got back to doing what got them to a 9-0 start: slaughtering the dogs. The only thing that would make this team more appropriate would be if Mike Vick followed Andy Reid to KC. Meanwhile, the Shanny Watch is in full swing, as it looks like Mike Shanahan is going to go all suicide-by-cop in DC. My best guess is that he WANTS to be fired and be done with RG3 and Daniel Snyder but still get paid, of course.
• Bucs (-2½) 27, Bills 6 - Mike Glennon went 9 of 25 passing for 90 yards and Tampa won by three touchdowns. OK then. Fortunately for them, they had Bobby Rainey, the next-man-up in the MASH unit Bucs running back stable, to carry the load the QB couldn't. The Bills continue to mystify, but this week were no match for Hottest Team in Florida (Part III).
• Patriots 27, Browns (+11) 26 - Sure, the Patriots had another one of their patented mad dash comebacks, but the story to me was the obvious difference in Cleveland whenever ANYONE who is not Brandon Weeden steps under center. Call it premature, but if the Browns can get that position solidified, they could be a Houston Texans Memorial team going in to 2014. You heard it here first. Oh, and the Pats lost Gronk for the season. They're fucked.
• Packers 22, Falcons (+3½) 21 - A game with no meaning suddenly looked huge as the Lions shit the bed in Philly. A fluky pick-6 put the Falcons up 11 at the half, but they were clearly doing nothing on offense after an early TD drive. Matt Flynn was shredding the Falcon D all day, and the Packers chipped away with field goals until taking a late lead and hanging on for dear life as the Falcons couldn't get into FG position into a stiff wind. Now only half a game back in the NFC North, the Packers still have a realistic shot at winning the division, but only if Aaron Rodgers makes it back, and soon.
• Broncos (-12) 51, Titans 28 - Denver is just too loaded to lose a shootout to Ryan Fitzpatrick. End of story.
• Cardinals (-6) 30, Rams 10 - Shocking Stat of the Week: Carson Palmer AKA Interception Santa didn't throw a single pick! With a defense like the Cards have, if Palmer doesn't screw the pooch, chances are good 'Zona will win.
• Niners 19, Seahawks (+2½) 17 - Yep, total cheap backdoor cover! I love it. Still, I will not sell short on Seattle as they were the "playing for nothing" team in this game and almost walked out of San Fran with the W anyways. The Niners were jacked up all game long, and their best punch barely won the game. If there is a next meeting, it will be in Seattle, and we all know how that will go.
• Chargers (-3) 37, Giants 14 - All the air came out of the Giants sails after the loss against Dallas, in my opinion. San Diego was still hanging on to a tiny thread of playoff hope and looked like it, as Philip Rivers continues to have the best season nobody talks about, primarly because of the Chargers no-account defense, and losing record.

I can't wait to hear Dre's breakdown of this week on the podcast Wednesday night. Or maybe it will just be a breakdown in general.

Jay 12-4
Dre 6-9