2011 Week #17

And now, for the long-awaited return of our third picking partner...Coin!!  Yes, the lucky dime has made its triumphant return to pick games with Jason and me for Week 17, because Week 17 has long had the most random, bullshit results out of any of the weeks.  We brought out Coin three years ago to pick with us for Week 17, and we were shocked that Coin finished worse than both of us.  But before you think that Coin was just awful, no no, Coin went a healthy 7-8-1 that week, not so bad when you consider, it's a coin.  We were pretty damn good that week, as it turned out.  I was 8-7-1, and Jason was a robust 11-4-1.  So, without further adieu, our picks alongside Coin for this slate of regular season finales.  (BTW, in regards to how Coin decides its picks, heads = favorites, and tails = underdogs.)

Fav Spread Dog Dre Jay Coin

PHI (7-8)	9	Wash (5-10)			Phi	Phi	Wash
MIA (5-10)	3	NYJ (8-7)			Mia	Mia	Mia
NO (12-3)	9	Car (6-9)			Car	Car	NO
Det (10-5)	3½	GB (14-1)			Det	GB	GB
SF (12-3)	10½	STL (2-13)			StL	SF	StL
JACK (4-11)	3½	Ind (2-13)			Ind	Ind	Ind
NE (12-3)	10½	Buf (6-9)			Buf	NE	Buf
Tenn (8-7)	1½	HOU (10-5)			Hou	Tenn	Tenn
MIN (3-12)	1	Chi (7-8)			Chi	Min	Chi
Pit (11-4)	7	CLE (4-11)			Pit	Pit	Pit
Bal (11-4)	1	CIN (9-6)			Cin	Bal	Bal
ATL (9-6)	11	TB (4-11)			TB	Atl	TB
DEN (8-7)	3½	KC (6-9)			KC	KC	KC
OAK (8-7)	3	SD (7-8)			Oak	SD	SD
ARIZ (7-8)	3	Sea (7-8)			Ariz	Sea	Ariz
	Sun. Nite
NYG (8-7)	3	Dal (8-7)			Dal	NY	Dal

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• We both like Philadelphia to continue their late-season revival and drill the hapless Washington Redskins into Bolivian.  Jason observes that the Dream Team is not mentally tough, but they've been able to turn it on in the 2nd half after most of the hype had died, and it should continue versus the Shanahan Boyz, setting up Philly for the Houston Texans Memorial Pre-Season Media Darling for 2012.
• Hard to imagine that Jets outfit righting the ship and just deciding to get the win just because they need it to make the playoffs.  We like the Dolphins to savor knocking New York out despite not having Reggie Bush to run the rock.  And I personally like the Jets to take a QB in the draft.  End the Total Fraud reign already, Rex.
• Another agreement as we like that hot Carolina offense to keep them close against the red hot New Orleans offense.  Yes, the Saints are gunning for that first-round bye, but the defense can let Cam Newton and the Panthers stick around.
• Oh, those Week 17 point spreads.  The 14-1 Pack are dogs at home?  Say what???  And I'm giving the points and taking the Lions!  I hoped that Detroit wouldn't make the playoffs because I didn't think they deserved it after all the immaturity, but they're in, and they want to grab the #5 seed, and the Packers have absolutely nothing to play for.  Jason will still go with the Pack.  Something about windy conditions at Lambeau affecting the dome team Lions.  But does it matter against Matt Flynn?
• I am picking the Rams to stay close against the 49ers because I'd take any team getting 10½ against that San Francisco offense, but also because I admire how hard Steven Jackson continues to play despite his team's crummy season.  If St. Louis can knock off New Orleans, they can surely hang against the Niners.  Jason thinks St. Louis is more gutless than Indianapolis and will therefore go all-out to tank this game and try to secure the #1 draft pick.  They gotta be more professional than that...don't they?
• And speaking of the Colts, Jason heard that Jacksonville was favored and immediately took Indianapolis to win.  Blaine Gabbert favored?  As Rick Sutcliffe would slur, "No no no no no..."  But I fucked up the pick by saying that I actually like Jacksonville to win, but the hook scared me, so I like Indy to cover.  Smells like a 3-point game to me.  And as we know, getting cute like that almost never works.
• Jason likes New England to throttle Buffalo and therefore make the Bills finish with the same record as the Dolphins, which has been Jason's agenda for this 2nd half of the year.  The Patriots need this win to lock in the #2 seed and a bye, and a motivated New England squad with revenge on its mind for the Buffalo upset win in Week 3 seems daunting.  But I like Buffalo finding its way on offense the last couple of games, and that New England D should let the Bills hang around.
• The arrow is pointing down for Houston, but I like them over Tennessee because the Titans look very wobbly trying to limp into the playoffs with their ancient core veterans and hot-cold-hot-cold star RB Chris Johnson.  Plus, the Texans should use the extra days of prep after the Thursday night loss in Indy to gather one more big effort before the playoffs, even though Houston is locked in to the #3 seed.  Arian Foster may rest?  Fine, I think Ben Tate will be happy to take 20 carries.  Jason likes Tennessee because they're playing for something and because Houston has looked very bad.  The T.J. Yates Bandwagon looks empty and desolate.
• Jay will complete the Bears Won't Win A Game Without Cutler prophecy and pick a beat-up Vikings team to get the win.  I can't do that to the veteran Chicago defenders, especially Pro Bowlers Lance Briggs and Peanut Tillman and Hall-of-Famer Brian Urlacher.  They have to trounce Joe Webb and Toby Gerhart and go into the offseason with a teeny tiny amount of pride still intact.  Don't they?
• In the AFC North scenario, Pittsburgh needs to beat Cleveland and have Baltimore lose to Cincinnati in order to take the division and a bye.  Jason and I will be happy to take the Steelers to go into Cleveland and concuss the remaining Browns QBs, taking care of one half of that situation...
• ...But we differ on the other half.  Jason likes Baltimore to man up and put down the Bengals because Cincinnati is actually good and Baltimore won't play down to them.  If they sucked, Jay would like the Bengals.  I like the Bengals because they're still fighting for the playoffs and because the Ravens look old and sickly to me.  That wouldn't stop me from taking them next weekend to win a Wild Card game at the AFC West champ, but only if WR Anquan Boldin is back.
• As bad as Tampa Bay has looked, and as great as Atlanta looked the last time a Florida team came into the Georgia Dome (Jags, Week 15), and as much as the Falcons may want to win trying to avoid the #6 seed and a date next week with the Saints, I'm taking the Lions to win early in the day and lock up the #5 seed, making this game meaningless for Atlanta, and I'm taking Tampa to give it a lot better effort than the Dirty Birds.  They'll probably win the game just because it's so meaningless.  Raheem Morris will get fired anyway.
• And now for the AFC West showdowns.  Tim Tebow (Pro Bowl Alternate?  Really?!!) and the Broncos are in if they beat former Bronco Kyle Orton and the Chiefs, but even if they lose, they're still in with an Oakland loss versus San Diego.  We both like the Chefs to "upset" Denver.  Even Coin hath forsaken Tebow.  Jason observed that the lucky dime has "In God We Trust" inscribed on the front before I flipped it, and it still landed tails...
• ...But Jason and Coin both will take the Chargers to go into the Black Hole and knock off the Raiders and give Tebow the back-door entry into the AFC West title and the playoffs.  And if Tebow really is a homo, as my wife thinks, then he'll enjoy the back-door action.  As much as I hate to take them because it will validate the horrible Carson Palmer trade, I'm picking Oakland to beat up San Diego.  I was on the Chargers all the way until Philip Rivers stopped throwing well last week.
• In the meaningless Seahawks-Cardinals tilt, Jason likes the Seahawks because...eh, they're playing a little better.  I like the Cards because...eh, fuck it.  I don't have a good reason.  They're at home, how about that?
• And in the first playoff game of the new year, it's Cowboys at Giants.  I've made it clear--I got Dallas all the way because the Giants suck as home favorites.  Suck, suck, suck.  That's all the reason I need.  And Jason will take New York because Dallas still has the dumber QB and head coach, just as they did when they found a way to lose to the G-Men in Texas a few weeks ago.  I like Coin being on my side, and I like picking Seattle to beat St. Louis last year in the first playoff game, so maybe I'm on a roll.  I'm the new Vegas tout: I NEVER lose--on Week 17 win-and-you're-in Sunday nights!!!

2011 Week 16: What I Learned

Sugar Huddle!  All Week 16 games in almost no detail as we get ready for a fun and frenzied Week 17:

• I guess one of the hottest teams in the league the last two weeks is...the Indianapolis Colts!  Way to fuck up the #1 draft pick.  Houston is not ready for prime time, or playoff time.
• The league's worst defense strikes again and almost costs New England the game.  But hey, way to keep fighting, Dolphins, for whatever it's worth.
• Baltimore continues to underwhelm me as they barely beat the Browns, giving me a cheap cover.  Can't emphasize how much I hate the Ravens in the playoffs, especially with their only consistent WR at less than 100%.
• Yep, Jason was right.  We couldn't get the Cincy-Arizona spread right.  Never works out when we try that shit.  In other news, catch of the millennium.
• Nice job, Redskins--take out the stud RB and young QB for the Vikings, and still get your doors blown off.  You suck hard.  Neither Minnesota or Washington is any good.
• Neither is Denver.  News flash:  Tim Tebow is bad at QB.
• Congrats to the Steelers, who stepped up for their missing QB by routing their opponent and building momentum for a playoff push...oh wait, they beat the Rams.  Never mind.
• Can you give failing grades to both QBs in the same game?  Because Eli Manning and Mark Sanchez both stunk out the Meadowlands.  The momentum changer was, one QB has Victor Cruz, and the other doesn't.  I love Dallas to come into New York and win the division next week.  The Giants have only one effective WR, and their QB is ice cold.
• Tampa Bay blows.  If the Panthers get some kind of D next season, watch out.
• Tennessee blew the spread for me on purpose, it seemed.  They threw two picks while driving to put the game away, then fumbled a ball in their own territory after stopping Jacksonville on 4th down.  The Titans were determined to not cover the number, and they succeeded.  And they're still in playoff contention!  Bastards.
• Interception Santa in KC?  That would be Kyle Orton, the Chiefs QB.  But that's not even what lost the game.  That would be Richard Seymour blocking two FGs for Oakland, forcing OT, where the Raiders kicked the winning FG.  Guess that's why Oakland paid Seymour the big bucks.
• San Diego is unstoppable when Philip Rivers is on.  Rivers was 28-53-299, one TD, 2 INT.  Rivers was not on.  San Diego is out.  Detroit is in.  Norv Turner is fucked.
• The moment Tony Romo was knocked out of the Dallas-Philly game, as Hawk Harrelson would say, it was OVAH.  But Romo will be fine for next Sunday night in the Meadowlands.
• SF keeps finding ways to win ugly.  I still don't want any part of them in the playoffs.
• And let's make this a combo entry: The two best offenses in the NFC lit it up on Sunday and Monday night.  I'm laying it all down right here--there's absolutely no fucking way that the NFC title game won't be New Orleans at Green Bay.  All the other prelim fights in the first two playoff weekends won't matter.  The Saints and Packers are running their offenses too damn good to be stopped by anyone except each other.

Week 16 Records--Dre 7-9, .438; Jay 9-7, .563
YTD Records--Dre 107-124-9, .463; Jay 117-114-9, .506

2011 Week #16

Love to get off to that great start to the week by winning ATS on Thursday night.  Unfortunately, that was the last Thursday game of the season.  Now on to this wild and wacky Saturday slate of games in the NFL.

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

	Thu. Nite
Hou (10-4)	7	IND (1-13)	Ind 19-16		Ind	Ind
	Saturday
NE (11-3)	9½	Mia (5-9)			NE	NE
BAL (10-4)	12½	Cle (4-10)			Cle	Bal
CIN (8-6)	4½	Ariz (7-7)			Ariz	Ariz
WASH (5-9)	7	Min (2-12)			Wash	Min
Den (8-6)	2½	BUF (5-9)			Buf	Den
PIT (10-4)	12	StL (2-12)			StL	Pit
NYJ (8-6)	3	NYG (7-7)			NYJ	NYG
CAR (5-9)	9	TB (4-10)			Car	Car
TENN (7-7)	7½	Jack (4-10)			Tenn	Jack
KC (6-8)	1	Oak (7-7)			KC	KC
DET (9-5)	1	SD (7-7)			SD	Det
DAL (8-6)	1	Phi (6-8)			Phi	Phi
SF (11-3)	1	SEA (7-7)			Sea	Sea
	Sun. Nite
GB (13-1)	11½	Chi (7-7)			GB	GB
	Mon. Nite
NO (11-3)	7	Atl (9-5)			NO	Atl

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• I still want to figure out our record when we pick the same team, because I don't think it's ever been very good.  We're going against each other on eight of the 15 remaining games, so it will be one of the more interesting weeks.  Here's one Jason and I agree on, those plucky Dolphins visiting those powerful Patriots.  The question with every Pats opponent is, can the offense fly high enough to keep up with New England?  We don't believe in Miami's ability to slow down Tom Brady and the boys.  And we can't pick Miami to keep up when they're still only 24th in the league passing.
• Baltimore is giving big points to Cleveland, and I will take the points because Seneca Wallace is playing better than Colt McCoy was at QB for the Browns (Jason tried to catch me and gave me a toss-up of McCoy vs. Sam Bradford, and because I'm not stupid, I said that I'd rather have Sam) and because Baltimore lost their most consistent receiving threat, Anquan Boldin, for the rest of the regular season.  Jason likes the Ravens because they should be nice and steamed after being embarrassed on NBC by San Diego, and Jason always leans towards the Ravens when they're coming off a thrashing.
• We're both going out of our minds and trying to nail a spread where we like the favorite to win but the underdog to cover.  And the spread is only 4½!  It's understandable to try that when the number's 10 or something, but 4½ means that we're basically expecting Cincinnati to beat Arizona by a FG only.  It's fucked up how we both liked the exact same scene to play out, but after making so many picks throughout the years, maybe we're starting to think alike.  That should frighten the fuck out of our respective wives.  Jason asked me to strike through this pick early, because we never get it right when we try to be cute like that.
• Back to our disagreements.  I can't take Minnesota to hang in there with Washington for one simple reason:  The thing the Redskins can do when the Vikings and Jared Allen start pressuring Rex Grossman in the pocket is throw it deep and beat the rush, and the Vikings have proven that the one thing they don't want to do this season is cover somebody.  I still have nightmares about the number of wide open receivers Tim Tebow had when he led the Broncos from behind over Minnesota.  Rex should have those same open guys, and he can actually throw.  Jason calls it "Ninja Defense," because the Vikings secondary looks at a guy, who then throws up the smoke bomb and vanishes, then reappears behind them running toward the end zone with the football.  Yet he wants the Vikes to cover, because it feels like a sluggish, 13-9 type game between two non-contenders.
• I'm trying to keep an open mind when picking Denver games because it's easy to let the Tebow Thing cloud your judgment.  And I am going with Buffalo at home to knock them off.  The Bills haven't stopped anyone all year, but they showed a little offensive spark last week.  I'm betting on them showing up for their last home game and engaging in a shootout, and maybe Stevie Johnson goes off, tired of hearing all of the Tebow crap.  As for Jay, he would like to unveil the JTG Unsponsored Stat of the Week!  Jason only wants to reveal one statistic that he feels relevant every week, while I pore over a lot of stuff.  This week, the number is 203.  What's 203?  Why, that's only Reggie Bush's rushing total last week in a Buffalo wintry mix.  What may Tebow and the other running backs do to the poor Bills?  Stay tuned.
• More big points for me!  I'll take the Rams to cover over Pittsburgh because the Steelers QB this week, Charlie Batch, is so old that he's not more mobile than Big Ben Roethlisberger.  This could be the lowest scoring game of the season among all games.  Pittsburgh's success is predicated on scoring strikes downfield in the passing game, and if Big Ben can't do that, they struggle to score.  Jason will go with the favorites because a 13-0 score counts.
• And in maybe the most shocking pick we've ever had, I, the big New York Giants fan, the Eli Manning fantasy league owner, I am looking at the war of words in Gotham and I am weighing the factors carefully, and I am picking...Gang Green!  I just feel that Eli is crumbling under pressure again, and this feels like he will cough up a lead by throwing a bad pick and the Jets will somehow cover the number.  And Jason, the bestower of the moniker Total Fraud upon Mark Sanchez, hater of Rex Ryan's mouth, Jason's taking...the G-Men!  Actually, Jason wanted to invent the Push Pick, where he predicts a game to be a push ATS, but we don't do that here at IMLD.  You gotta pick one way or the other.  So he went with the Giants because they're underdogs and they can cover without winning.  See, I think this game, for all the yap between coaches and other players and each other, is all about Eli.  He plays well, the Giants win, and he's the toast of the town.  He doesn't, the Jets win, and he's laughed at for thinking he was "elite."  I gotta go with the latter.  I've seen Eli and coach Tom Coughlin gag too many times.
• We agree to take the Panthers to trounce the Bucs.  Moving on...
• Back to disagreeing.  Jason will back the Jaguars to cover a big spread with a hook at Tennessee.  I will back the Titans.  It's their last stand as they try to make a playoff push, and Jacksonville's QB continues to be terrible.  And Tennessee's QB, Matt Hasselbeck, was feeling better this week healthwise.
• We will back Kyle Orton and Kansas City as they try to cripple Oakland's postseason hopes.  KC can still make the playoffs, if you can believe that.  Jason welcomes back to the main stage Interception Santa, a.k.a. Carson Palmer, who throws balls to everyone who wants one, even if you're being naughty and playing for the other team.  (Wait, that sounded dirty...)  It's the giving season, and we expect Palmer to be very giving to the Chiefs secondary.
• The only game we disagree on in that four-game 1-point spread clusterfuck is San Diego visiting Detroit.  Whichever team is trailing at the 2:00 warning in the 4th quarter has the opposition right where they want them.  The Chargers can explode and score on anybody, and of course, the Lions come roaring back at a moment's notice.  Jason will take the Lions to hold on and get another needed win, while I will pick Philip Rivers and San Diego to pull off a big road win and stay alive for a division title.
• I don't think Jason is being totally honest with his Philly pick, but it's his pick, so I have to honor it.  He's putting an end to the newfound Eagles love, and he's picking them to win right now.  "End this shit right now!" he said.  He can't believe that Philadelphia can still somehow win that division.  So he figures, if he takes them, they will lose and be eliminated.  He doesn't actually believe in the Eagles surge, but he's taking them as a way to snuff them out.  I do believe in the Eagles, actually, and I may pick them the rest of the way, so long as Michael Vick can still go.
• And we believe in Seattle to keep up their hot streak, although this may have as much to do with how San Francisco is playing their guys than anything else.  If SF was at full strength, I don't believe we would back the Seahawks here, but the loud Seattle home advantage and the Niners being in a little bit of disarray lead us to go with the Skittles gang.
• Christmas night features a 15-1 team going against a squad of 3rd-stringers, guys who have never seen the field as starters, some who have and were bad, a team that has "QUIT" written all over it.  Guess which team we're picking?
• And Monday night sees Jason and me going in opposite directions.  Jason thinks the Falcons will put up a fight for New Orleans because they're in the same division and they know what to expect, so they will give the Saints a run.  I'm taking the Saints squoosh.  Hell, I'm taking the Saints the rest of the season if they're playing on turf indoors, and that includes the playoffs.  New Orleans is just that hot, and QB Drew Brees is just that good lately.

Thu. Nite Texans @ Colts

Houston comes into Indianapolis as a seven-point favorite, and this one was tough for me.  I'm on a roll picking the Colts, so I have to respect that they have a cover streak going and that they're at home on a Thursday night, which has been the winning side for almost all of this year's Thursday games.  But Houston clearly has the better team, and they waxed the Colts to start the season.  But won't that motivate the Colts?  But do the Colts have anything left to play for now that they've achieved that one victory?  But shouldn't the Texans run roughshod over Indy, like every other team?  But hasn't the Indy run defense really been shored up this season by the outstanding play of Pat Angerer?  Gah!!  So many angles, so many factors...in the end, I split the baby and picked Houston to win and Indy to cover.  I don't think Jason went through all of those thoughts when he also took the Colts to cover.  He says he's back on the Thursday home team, simple as that.  And that's the difference between Jason and me.  One trusts his gut, the other overanalyzes everything.  But at least this time, we arrived at the same conclusion.  Hope we get it right.

My Pick:  Houston 19-14

Week 15 ATS Recap: The Race to the Bottom

Picking all the games can certainly lead to some humbling experiences. It's so easy to think that we have this all figured out after almost 4 full months of games, and then a week like this last one comes along to show us just how little we truly know. The late season push to be the chic pick of the next season has begun, and we might have to rename the award now that the Houston Texans have finally stepped up to claim a division crown. This is gonna be a tough week to dissect game-by-game considering all the losers on the board, but hopefully some things can be learned from the failures.

• Falcons (-13½) 41, Jaguars 14 (Thursday) - Both losers - Who was that that said they weren't taking any more road teams on Thursday nights? Oh, it was me, and I fell in love with the points and ignored a Falcon team that has put together a fairly solid regular season after a rocky 3-3 start.
• Cowboys (-7) 31, Buccaneers 15 (Saturday) - Both winners - The Cowboys may be dumb, but the Bucs are done.
• Bengals 20, Rams 13 - PUSH - Gotta love the Garbage Time Push. After stocking up on pushyness the first few weeks of the year, we managed to avoid the gamblers nightmare lately. This week gave us two. One, I was thrilled with. This one, however, I was not.
• Dolphins (+1) 30, Bills 23 - Both winners - So back in my Week 11 recap, I said that I would not be surprised if the Bills got overtaken in the division by Miami. Well, by virtue of this result, they are tied at 5-9 with two to play. Count that as one trend I saw. With all the ones I've missed, ya gotta savor the victories.
• Redskins (+6½) 23, Giants 10 - Jason winner, Dre loser - This looked like a field goal decision to me, one of those typical ugly, sloppy, close NFC East matchups. Other than the score, they totally lived up to the ugly and the sloppy. Does anyone want to win the NFC East?
• Colts (+7) 27, Titans 13 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Let's see: I was on the Colts to win one early, and Dre's been on them more of late. One of us was bound to be right eventually. The Colts brass came out and said that the Colts may need to win one game to save Jim Caldwell's job. Wow, way to set that bar high, guys! Maybe Rich Kotite would like another crack at this NFL coaching thing, since all it takes is ONE FUCKING WIN to save your job.
• Seahawks (+3½) 38, Bears 14 - Both winners - This was the easiest pick of the week. I may have dubbed Carson Palmer as "Interception Santa" this last week, but at least Palmer has had a modicum of NFL success. Caleb Hanie had his third three-pick game in all of four starts, and has now lost his job to one of the McCowns. Which one, no one cares. Funny to believe that Bear fans were clamoring for Hanie at one point. Incredible.
• Chiefs (+13½) 19, Packers 14 - Both losers - It's really hard to go undefeated. There's a reason it hasn't happened in almost 40 years. Every team gets up to knock off the undefeated team, and when that team happens to also be the Super Bowl Champs? Too much for the Packers to overcome, especially with shoddy defense and drop-happy receivers in a hostile environment to begin with. Living in Wisconsin, I have to say nothing has been pissing me off more than the Packer "fans" all writing this team off now that they've lost a game and been "exposed." Your team is 13-1. Shut the fuck up!
• Panthers (+6) 28, Texans 13 - Both losers - When you're down to your third string QB, best not to be turing the ball over three times. Houston handed out two picks and lost a fumble while Carolina played a clean game and hung on late for the win. What looked like it was going to be another second half collapse for the Panthers never materialized, and it was nice to see Cam Newton escape with a win. As Dre pointed out, the kid looked mentally beat down from all the losing, despite his great rookie season.
• Saints (-9) 42, Vikings 20 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Drew Brees is a monster.
• Lions 28, Raiders 27 - PUSH - Speaking of beasts, Calvin Johnson (the Cowboys third best receiver) single handedly saved my fantasy playoff matchup with 214 yards receiving and 2 touchdowns, the last of which beat the Raiders in the last minute and saved me from ANOTHER loss on the week against Dre. Interception Santa also must have had the Lions on his naughty list, because he managed not to throw one to the boys in blue all game. Of course, the Raiders still lost.
• Cardinals 20, Browns (+6½) 17 - OT - Both losers - We're always mystifed how Cleveland scores points at all. This week, they went to perennial backup Seneca Wallace for a spark, and got enough out of him to cover the number.
• Eagles (-3) 45, Jets 19 - Both losers - FUUUUUUCCCCKKKKKKKKK you Jets! I needed you guys to end the Eagles B.S. now, because can I really expect the stupidest team in the league to do it this week? The Eages need a LOT of help to win the NFC East at 8-8, but I do have to say that nobody will want to play them in the first round if they do it.
• Patriots (-9) 41, Broncos 23 - Both losers - The Broncos came out with a nice gameplan against the Pats. It was up tempo and featured a run-it-down-your-fucking-throat style of play the NFL hasn't seen this year (Oakland came close when McFadden was healthy). But then the Broncos got a bad case of the Fumbleitis, and you can't do that against Tom Brady and that New England offense.
• Chargers (+1½) 34, Ravens 14 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Baltimore was in the game, down only 10 at halftime, but then took their first three drives of the second half and went pick-pick-punt, while the Chargers scored 14 more points in that same period. Ballgame.
• Niners (-3) 20, Steelers 3 - Both losers - OK, Big Ben had ZERO business being out on the field for this game. Yes, the Steelers had a chance to capitalize on the Ravens loss Sunday night, but when your franchise QB has only one move, and that one move is evading the pass rush, and he's IMMOBILE.....you know what's going to happen. Roethlisberger turned into a statue in the pocket on his bum ankle, and the San Fran D teed him up to the tune of three sacks, a ton of pressures, and three picks. The Steelers get a couple creampuffs to finish out the season, and had better start to think about resting Big Ben.

2011 Week 15: What I Learned

• It's getting down to that murky time of the season where some teams are crumbling, some are just getting it together, and some are quitting.  And it's up to us, your friendly prognosticators, to figure out which is which.  Our ten combined wins this week says, it's going to be a bitch trying to sort it all out.
• Games in no detail:  Jaguars-Falcons (yeah, we were LOUD WRONG on that one), Cowboys-Buccaneers (okay team whoops terrible team, nothing to see here), Dolphins-Bills (wait, Buffalo let Reggie Bush rush for 200 yards on them?!?), Titans-Colts (easy for Indy to drop back into Tampa-2 when Hasselbeck proves he's ineffective, and I repeat, Tennessee should go to the bullpen and start Locker at QB), Saints-Vikings (great turf team whoops terrible anywhere team, nothing to see here), Browns-Cardinals (Seneca ran Cleveland offense better than Colt, but o-line breakdown loses the game), Ravens-Chargers (SD when Philip Rivers is making his throws cannot be stopped).
• A couple of small notes from the Bengals-Rams game.  A big F-U to Kellen Clemens, who played a good game at QB for St. Louis, including the last drive to get the TD that blew the cover for Jason and me.  And a big uh-oh to Cincinnati, who may fail to make the playoffs if they can't stop their stud WR from getting banged up at this late stage of the season.  Rookie WR A.J. Green made his usual array of circus catches, but he was getting up slower and slower as the game wore on and holding different aching body parts.  If he's less than 100% for these last two games, the Bengals can forget the postseason.
• Speaking of uh-oh, cue up Danyelle Sargent:  WHAT THE FUCK WAS THAT?!! Pt. 1--Redskins 23, Giants 10.  Wha??  Actually, this is somewhat easy to explain.  Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning don't handle prosperity well.  They have their backs against the wall going into Dallas last week, they come out on top.  They get a breather this week playing an awful Washington team at home, and they shit the bed.  I'm not even going back into the archives to see how the Giants have earned their rep as chokers when they're favored.  Just this season, they're 1-4-1 ATS as home favorites.  Unacceptable and unbelievable, and I did get fooled again, so I'm disqualified from using the CSI sound drop.  I have no reasoning behind it, some guys just can't handle being the top dog.  And just for extra emphasis, let me state it clearly:  Holy fuck, did Eli Manning suck dick in this game.  His throws were so off that I think some of them landed in the Hudson.
• Chicago played well for about a quarter and a half, gaining a 14-7 lead despite losing WR Johnny Knox to a horrific vertebrae injury.  Then the turnovers started coming fast and furious, Seattle built a lead, and the more the Bears pressed and tried to mount a comeback, the more QB Caleb Hanie had to drop back for passes, and the more disaster struck.  That guy doesn't need to be playing QB in the NFL.  He may be a great Arena League player, or Canadian League, but he's as much of an NFL quarterback as Tim Tebow.  That offensive line doesn't help, either.  And I have to give props once again to Tarvaris Jackson, who is doing a very good job managing games for the Seahawks, that is, not fucking up and throwing games to the other team like Hanie.  And Skittles sales must be sky high all around the Pacific Northwest.
• WHAT THE FUCK WAS THAT?!! Pt. 2--Chiefs 19, Packers 14.  Wha??  Did Green Bay miss Greg Jennings that much?  Or did having a real QB and coach make that big a diff for Kansas City?  Either way, the perfect season dream is over, and the Pack find themselves trying to stay in rhythm and motivated for the last two games.  No one cares what this means for KC, so congrats to Kyle Orton and Romeo Crennel, and now, get the fuck off the stage.  The real question is, did the Packers get exposed and do teams have a way to beat them in Wisconsin in January?  I'm still picking them to win it all because the Saints have to play up in Green Bay, and everyone else from the AFC is fatally flawed, even more than the Pack.
• WHAT THE FUCK WAS THAT?!! Pt. 3--Panthers 28, Texans 13.  Wha??  Just when we are ready to put our faith in T.J. Yates and back the Texans for a long playoff run, they get their doors blown off by a Carolina squad that hasn't held a lead almost all damn year.  We learned that Yates can't lead comebacks every week without his best player, Andre Johnson.  We learned that Houston can be in trouble if they don't establish that strong running game immediately (Arian Foster ran fine, but he got fumbleitis).  And we learned that Carolina can make adjustments and put in good game plans.  They moved the ball so well against a fierce Texans pass rush because Cam Newton really got the ball out fast every throw.  And with the big lead, Newton didn't have to keep throwing all game and risk the interceptions, and the Panthers were able to use their formidable rush game.  The blueprint is there to beat Houston--quick throws, put their backs to the wall, and create turnovers.
• Detroit does it again!  For the 4th time this year, they came back and won a game in which they trailed by 13 or more points.  That's a league record.  What can you say?  Stafford-to-Johnson can be a legendary combo if they keep this up.  What a great feeling it must be for Matthew Stafford to know that anytime he needs to complete a big pass, he can hit his WR Megatron and move the chains, or score the game-winning TD in this case.  I guess I should just thank the heavens that Detroit was favored by one and not Oakland, or else this would have been yet another comeback win for Jason.  Instead, it was a comeback push.  Still sucks, though.  I still don't believe in the Lions, BTW.
• WHAT THE FUCK WAS THAT?!! Pt. 4--Eagles 45, Jets 19.  Wha??  Are the Eagles really back from the dead like a zombie?  Well, as long as Michael Vick is in at QB and not Vince Young, I guess Philadelphia is capable of anything.  But off to a 28-0 lead?  Yes, I think the Jets are overrated, but that even surprised me.  You wouldn't want to be Santonio Holmes on this day--a couple of fumbles and a ridiculous TD celebration considering the Jets were still down 16 at that point.  Really?  But the story was how great Vick looked without a Jets pass rush hurrying him.  His throws were on time and accurate, and his scrambles were deadly because they weren't panicked and he didn't have to do it every snap.  The Jets continue their subpar road play, but this was a new low, even for them.  It will be like a porn convention Saturday at Giants Stadium, because the two New York teams will compete to see who can choke the hardest.
• Okay, who still thinks the Patriots are on the road to the Super Bowl?  If you do, I urge you to watch the 1st quarter of the Pats-Broncos game.  They gave up over 200 yards of offense in one quarter to Tim Tebow and the rest of that crappy Denver offense.  Over 200 yards in one fucking quarter!  The TV crew pointed out that Denver for some reason has gotten murdered in the 2nd quarter this season, coming in at a -87, and sure enough, when the smoke cleared at halftime of this contest, the Pats had outscored the Broncos by 20.  The score went from a 16-7 Denver lead to a 27-16 NE advantage, and despite his heroics all year, making Tebow play catch-up didn't work out because the Patriots came after him with a ferocious pass rush.  I may like New England's chances a little more if Mark Anderson can play DE like that every game, but we know the former Bear can't, and that's why he's a former Bear.  And if they can force turnovers like that all the time, they wouldn't be such a putrid defense.  But they can't.  Meanwhile, how will Tebow and the Broncos recover?  Well, they have to go to Buffalo, another bad D, but if NE could step up and have a big game, maybe the Bills can too.
• I won't even put this under What The Fuck Was That because the Steelers had no chance in San Francisco, and unfortunately for Jason and me, that became apparent as soon as the game began.  I assumed that with a week of rest, Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger would look a little better on his sprained ankle than he did.  He looked awful.  His throws were off target, his mobility was nonexistent, and he was the picture of ineffectiveness.  His lights were out before he got off the plane, so San Fran's stadium losing power was apropos.  Hell, Charlie Batch may have done better after all.  I still don't think much of San Francisco's offensive game plan, a bunch of dink-and-doink passes to barely move the chains and keep the clock running.  But when your defense is playing a crippled QB, I guess you don't have to do much when you have the ball except don't turn it over.  Pittsburgh should be scared shitless because if this injury to Big Ben lingers, they will be reduced to a low-scoring defensive unit that can't keep up with a high-flying offense, and that only gets you so far in the playoffs.

Week 15 Records--Dre 6-8-2, .429; Jay 4-10-2, .286
YTD Records--Dre 100-115-9, .465; Jay 108-107-9, .502

2011 Week #15

Jason and I were able to be a little holiday festive and jovial while making our picks tonight, because we were able to enjoy a winning pick for the Saturday night game.  Anything to wash away the taste of that horrible Thursday night pick.  On to the rest of the games for Week 15:

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

	Thu. Nite
ATL (8-5)	13½	Jack (4-9)	Atl 41-14		Jack	Jack
	Sat. Nite
Dal (7-6)	7	TB (4-9)	Dal 31-15		Dal	Dal
	Sunday
Cin (7-6)	7	STL (2-11)			Cin	Cin
BUF (5-8)	1	Mia (4-9)			Mia	Mia
NYG (7-6)	6½	Wash (4-9)			NY	Wash
Tenn (7-6)	7	IND (0-13)			Ind	Tenn
CHI (7-6)	3½	Sea (6-7)			Sea	Sea
GB (13-0)	13½	KC (5-8)			GB	GB
HOU (10-3)	6	Car (4-9)			Hou	Hou
NO (10-3)	9	MIN (2-11)			NO	Min
Det (8-5)	1	OAK (7-6)			Oak	Det
ARIZ (6-7)	6½	Cle (4-9)			Ariz	Ariz
PHI (5-8)	3	NYJ (8-5)			NY	NY
NE (10-3)	9	DEN (8-5)			Den	Den
	Sun. Nite
Bal (10-3)	1½	SD (6-7)			SD	Bal
	Mon. Nite
SF (10-3)	3	Pit (10-3)			Pit	Pit

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• We both jump on Cincinnati to rebound from that bad loss vs. Houston last week and whip the St. Louis Rams all over the field.  While I feel some fear knowing that the Rams somehow pulled an upset on Baltimore at home using a replacement QB in A.J. Feeley, I can't predict that outcome against another decent defense using Kellen Clemens.  Feeley may be ineffective, but Clemens is actively trying to give the football to the other team at all times.
• We're both still riding the Dolphins even after their bad loss against the Eagles last week.  Buffalo is just bad.  Jason has made it his mission to pick Miami and go against Buffalo so that the Fish finish ahead of the Bills in the standings, which would have been unheard of after Week 8 when Miami was 0-7 and Buffalo was 5-2.
• Our first disagreement of the week is on the Redskins-Giants game.  Jason has seen enough of the bad Giants defense this season.  He likes Rex Grossman to light it up against them.  Jay doesn't go to the stats often, but he cites that the Giants for all their offensive firepower this year are still -25 in point differential.  Yikes.  But I found a curious thing in those same point differential stats:  Washington is -61!  I know they had the great John Beck at the helm for several of those games, but most of that is on the defense and Grossman.  That 28-14 home beating by Washington against the Giants in Week 1 kicked off a fast start to the season for the Shanahan Boyz and the Skins.  This ain't the same Skins.  Give me the G-Men for some painful revenge.
• And I've gone down this road before and crashed and burned, but I'm going there again--gimme Indy to win!!  Yes, I don't just want the Colts to cover a TD against the Titans, I got them to win the game.  I really think they have to win one this year.  They're not that winless Lions team.  They were a playoff team last year, with a slightly better QB, I give you.  I'm really disappointed in Tennessee refusing to establish the run at home against a terrible New Orleans run D last week.  Did they really think they were going to outgun Drew Brees in a shootout?  I don't like the Titans putting an old, beat-up QB-WR combo out there in Matt Hasselbeck and Nate Washington.  And I can see the Colts outrushing them, too.  Jason thinks it's going to be the Chris Johnson Show on the Indy turf.
• Get your Skittles ready in Chicago, because we like the Seahawks and Marshawn Lynch to go Beast Mode on the hapless Bears.  I'm amazed that Caleb Hanie is favored against anybody the way he's played his first three NFL starts.  The Bears may not win another fucking game this year.  Well, at least Sam Hurd's got the hookup for the good stuff that can make them feel better about things.  Seattle has two straight good games at home with eleven days of rest between them.  Can they build on those successes and take that confidence into Chi-Town to get a win?  Guess what--they did it last year.  We'll gladly take them to do it again.
• Greg Jennings is missing at WR for the Packers as they visit the Chefs in Kansas City.  Whatever will Green Bay do?  How can Aaron Rodgers replace that important weapon?  Oh yeah--nine different players have caught TD passes for the Pack this year.  We think they can manage without Jennings.  Plus, Jason pointed out that Green Bay already saw the KC starting QB, Kyle Orton, in Week 4 when Orton was in Denver.  Green Bay won that game 49-23.  Ouch.  And that was the highly praised Denver D, not the not-so-praised Chiefs D.  We'll take GB squoosh.
• Fresh off of stomping my heart out with his late-game heroics, T.J. Yates leads the Texans onto their home field against the woeful Panthers.  The new AFC South champs are gunning for a first-round bye, so they should keep grinding against Carolina and get the win even though the Panthers probably will outthrow them.  What Arian Foster and Ben Tate do to Carolina on the ground should break Cam Newton's spirit and put some quit into coach Ron Rivera's squad.
• Jason is taking the big home points on this occasion for the Vikings.  Even though they host New Orleans indoors, Jason still likes the prospect of RB Adrian Peterson returning from injury to blast the Saints hard enough to keep the score close.  I'm guessing Peterson's workload will be rather low, being his first game back in several weeks.  And I just can't pick against New Orleans indoors on a fast track.
• I could have gone either way on this one, but Jason will take the Lions to get it done on a road trip at Oakland.  It will be fast, it will be intense, and Matt Williamson from the ESPN Football Today podcast said that it may shatter the world penalty flag record.  Cheap shots all over the place!  Jason calls Raiders QB Carson Palmer "Interception Santa," giving out balls to whomever is around.  (If only they were black balls, then he'd attract a Kardashian.  Hey hey!)  That may be true, but I'll pick Interception Santa because Oakland hopefully is bright enough to have Palmer hand the ball to Michael Bush and stand aside many, many more times than he throws.  Detroit will let you run on them, plus it ramps up the physicality and raises the chance of some hothead Lions, particularly the returning Ndamukong Suh, throwing a punch or blowing his stack and helping the Raiders out.
• My Lock of the Week would be Arizona to throttle Cleveland.  Jason thinks it smells like time for another Patrick Peterson punt return for a TD, but that's just because he's got Peterson in our fantasy league, which uses IDPs.  We both are curious to see QB John Skelton work some more magic with Larry Fitzgerald, tossing him the ball and watching him tear it away from anyone in the vicinity.  And, it's Seneca Wallace in at QB for the Browns, which isn't good for Cleveland fans.
• We're not fans of either the Eagles or the Jets, as has been well documented, although I liked Philadelphia coming into the season.  The way they've gone out like punks has turned me off, but we were faced with picking one or the other this week.  While I studied and agonized and really sweated out this one, Jason was ready with his pick immediately.  "Oh, I'll take the Jets," he said, because he would like to see Philly's flickering playoff candle get snuffed out for good.  I'm also going with Gang Green, although I will root for Philly because I can't stand Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez way more than anyone on the Eagles.  Also, I wonder if Philly will keep choking and losing games in front of the home crowd.  The Jets may only be 2-4 on the road, but the Eagles for some reason are 1-5 at home.
• It's been really hard to avoid the subject of Tim Tebow in sports talk these last few weeks.  The Tebow Thing has grown and grown and grown, and no, I'm not talking about his supposedly virgin penis.  We've had to adjust and admit that picking Tebow in a point-spread environment  isn't a toxic idea, and we've now both gone with the Broncos for two weeks in a row.  But I'm not doubling down my bet as strong as Jason is--see, he's got Tebow and the Broncos to win.  That's right.  New England's defense has nauseated Jason so much that he's taking Tebow to find a way to win the game over Tom Brady and the Patriots.  I was so floored by the declaration that I completely forgot what lame Tebow jokes I was going to bust out in this space.  Oh well.  Guess I'll just declare my opinion that Tebow can keep Denver close, although I'm not taking Denver to go all the way and win.  I wonder, if Bill Belichick puts enough WRs on the field as DBs, can Tebow get easily confused and start throwing the ball towards them, thinking maybe they're his WRs that were just acquired in an in-game trade?  Er, maybe not.
• On Sunday night, I'm shrinking away from Baltimore in fear of those three bad losses earlier this season on the road, and I'm backing Philip Rivers and the Chargers once again.  They seem to be really getting at it during this stretch drive.  Jason's looking forward to the Ravens ending this San Diego shit and eliminating them from playoff contention.
• And on Monday night, we have to go with the Pittsburgh Steelers on a very long road trip.  San Francisco needs to come out of their funk from last game if they're going to knock off the AFC champions, and we don't think they're motivated to do that.  Now, we saw Charlie Batch try to play QB for Pittsburgh when Ben Roethlisberger got twisted, and that would have made us run towards SF if Batch had to start.  But Big Ben appears to be giving it a go, so we'll go with the Steel to beat a Niners team that seems to be throttling it down and saving it for the playoffs, which we all know never works.  We do all know that, don't we?