2011 Week #17

And now, for the long-awaited return of our third picking partner...Coin!!  Yes, the lucky dime has made its triumphant return to pick games with Jason and me for Week 17, because Week 17 has long had the most random, bullshit results out of any of the weeks.  We brought out Coin three years ago to pick with us for Week 17, and we were shocked that Coin finished worse than both of us.  But before you think that Coin was just awful, no no, Coin went a healthy 7-8-1 that week, not so bad when you consider, it's a coin.  We were pretty damn good that week, as it turned out.  I was 8-7-1, and Jason was a robust 11-4-1.  So, without further adieu, our picks alongside Coin for this slate of regular season finales.  (BTW, in regards to how Coin decides its picks, heads = favorites, and tails = underdogs.)

Fav Spread Dog Dre Jay Coin

PHI (7-8)	9	Wash (5-10)			Phi	Phi	Wash
MIA (5-10)	3	NYJ (8-7)			Mia	Mia	Mia
NO (12-3)	9	Car (6-9)			Car	Car	NO
Det (10-5)	3½	GB (14-1)			Det	GB	GB
SF (12-3)	10½	STL (2-13)			StL	SF	StL
JACK (4-11)	3½	Ind (2-13)			Ind	Ind	Ind
NE (12-3)	10½	Buf (6-9)			Buf	NE	Buf
Tenn (8-7)	1½	HOU (10-5)			Hou	Tenn	Tenn
MIN (3-12)	1	Chi (7-8)			Chi	Min	Chi
Pit (11-4)	7	CLE (4-11)			Pit	Pit	Pit
Bal (11-4)	1	CIN (9-6)			Cin	Bal	Bal
ATL (9-6)	11	TB (4-11)			TB	Atl	TB
DEN (8-7)	3½	KC (6-9)			KC	KC	KC
OAK (8-7)	3	SD (7-8)			Oak	SD	SD
ARIZ (7-8)	3	Sea (7-8)			Ariz	Sea	Ariz
	Sun. Nite
NYG (8-7)	3	Dal (8-7)			Dal	NY	Dal

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• We both like Philadelphia to continue their late-season revival and drill the hapless Washington Redskins into Bolivian.  Jason observes that the Dream Team is not mentally tough, but they've been able to turn it on in the 2nd half after most of the hype had died, and it should continue versus the Shanahan Boyz, setting up Philly for the Houston Texans Memorial Pre-Season Media Darling for 2012.
• Hard to imagine that Jets outfit righting the ship and just deciding to get the win just because they need it to make the playoffs.  We like the Dolphins to savor knocking New York out despite not having Reggie Bush to run the rock.  And I personally like the Jets to take a QB in the draft.  End the Total Fraud reign already, Rex.
• Another agreement as we like that hot Carolina offense to keep them close against the red hot New Orleans offense.  Yes, the Saints are gunning for that first-round bye, but the defense can let Cam Newton and the Panthers stick around.
• Oh, those Week 17 point spreads.  The 14-1 Pack are dogs at home?  Say what???  And I'm giving the points and taking the Lions!  I hoped that Detroit wouldn't make the playoffs because I didn't think they deserved it after all the immaturity, but they're in, and they want to grab the #5 seed, and the Packers have absolutely nothing to play for.  Jason will still go with the Pack.  Something about windy conditions at Lambeau affecting the dome team Lions.  But does it matter against Matt Flynn?
• I am picking the Rams to stay close against the 49ers because I'd take any team getting 10½ against that San Francisco offense, but also because I admire how hard Steven Jackson continues to play despite his team's crummy season.  If St. Louis can knock off New Orleans, they can surely hang against the Niners.  Jason thinks St. Louis is more gutless than Indianapolis and will therefore go all-out to tank this game and try to secure the #1 draft pick.  They gotta be more professional than that...don't they?
• And speaking of the Colts, Jason heard that Jacksonville was favored and immediately took Indianapolis to win.  Blaine Gabbert favored?  As Rick Sutcliffe would slur, "No no no no no..."  But I fucked up the pick by saying that I actually like Jacksonville to win, but the hook scared me, so I like Indy to cover.  Smells like a 3-point game to me.  And as we know, getting cute like that almost never works.
• Jason likes New England to throttle Buffalo and therefore make the Bills finish with the same record as the Dolphins, which has been Jason's agenda for this 2nd half of the year.  The Patriots need this win to lock in the #2 seed and a bye, and a motivated New England squad with revenge on its mind for the Buffalo upset win in Week 3 seems daunting.  But I like Buffalo finding its way on offense the last couple of games, and that New England D should let the Bills hang around.
• The arrow is pointing down for Houston, but I like them over Tennessee because the Titans look very wobbly trying to limp into the playoffs with their ancient core veterans and hot-cold-hot-cold star RB Chris Johnson.  Plus, the Texans should use the extra days of prep after the Thursday night loss in Indy to gather one more big effort before the playoffs, even though Houston is locked in to the #3 seed.  Arian Foster may rest?  Fine, I think Ben Tate will be happy to take 20 carries.  Jason likes Tennessee because they're playing for something and because Houston has looked very bad.  The T.J. Yates Bandwagon looks empty and desolate.
• Jay will complete the Bears Won't Win A Game Without Cutler prophecy and pick a beat-up Vikings team to get the win.  I can't do that to the veteran Chicago defenders, especially Pro Bowlers Lance Briggs and Peanut Tillman and Hall-of-Famer Brian Urlacher.  They have to trounce Joe Webb and Toby Gerhart and go into the offseason with a teeny tiny amount of pride still intact.  Don't they?
• In the AFC North scenario, Pittsburgh needs to beat Cleveland and have Baltimore lose to Cincinnati in order to take the division and a bye.  Jason and I will be happy to take the Steelers to go into Cleveland and concuss the remaining Browns QBs, taking care of one half of that situation...
• ...But we differ on the other half.  Jason likes Baltimore to man up and put down the Bengals because Cincinnati is actually good and Baltimore won't play down to them.  If they sucked, Jay would like the Bengals.  I like the Bengals because they're still fighting for the playoffs and because the Ravens look old and sickly to me.  That wouldn't stop me from taking them next weekend to win a Wild Card game at the AFC West champ, but only if WR Anquan Boldin is back.
• As bad as Tampa Bay has looked, and as great as Atlanta looked the last time a Florida team came into the Georgia Dome (Jags, Week 15), and as much as the Falcons may want to win trying to avoid the #6 seed and a date next week with the Saints, I'm taking the Lions to win early in the day and lock up the #5 seed, making this game meaningless for Atlanta, and I'm taking Tampa to give it a lot better effort than the Dirty Birds.  They'll probably win the game just because it's so meaningless.  Raheem Morris will get fired anyway.
• And now for the AFC West showdowns.  Tim Tebow (Pro Bowl Alternate?  Really?!!) and the Broncos are in if they beat former Bronco Kyle Orton and the Chiefs, but even if they lose, they're still in with an Oakland loss versus San Diego.  We both like the Chefs to "upset" Denver.  Even Coin hath forsaken Tebow.  Jason observed that the lucky dime has "In God We Trust" inscribed on the front before I flipped it, and it still landed tails...
• ...But Jason and Coin both will take the Chargers to go into the Black Hole and knock off the Raiders and give Tebow the back-door entry into the AFC West title and the playoffs.  And if Tebow really is a homo, as my wife thinks, then he'll enjoy the back-door action.  As much as I hate to take them because it will validate the horrible Carson Palmer trade, I'm picking Oakland to beat up San Diego.  I was on the Chargers all the way until Philip Rivers stopped throwing well last week.
• In the meaningless Seahawks-Cardinals tilt, Jason likes the Seahawks because...eh, they're playing a little better.  I like the Cards because...eh, fuck it.  I don't have a good reason.  They're at home, how about that?
• And in the first playoff game of the new year, it's Cowboys at Giants.  I've made it clear--I got Dallas all the way because the Giants suck as home favorites.  Suck, suck, suck.  That's all the reason I need.  And Jason will take New York because Dallas still has the dumber QB and head coach, just as they did when they found a way to lose to the G-Men in Texas a few weeks ago.  I like Coin being on my side, and I like picking Seattle to beat St. Louis last year in the first playoff game, so maybe I'm on a roll.  I'm the new Vegas tout: I NEVER lose--on Week 17 win-and-you're-in Sunday nights!!!