2010 Week #14

Here are the picks for an icy and weatherbeaten Week 14.

Fav

Spread

Dog

Dre

Jay

	Thu. Nite
Ind (6-6)	3	TENN (5-7)	Ind 30-28		Ind	Ind
	Sunday
Atl (10-2)	7½	CAR (1-11)			Atl	Atl
PIT (9-3)	9	Cin (2-10)			Pit	Cin
GB (8-4)	6½	DET (2-10)			GB	GB
JACK(7-5)	3½	Oak (6-6)			Oak	Jack
TB (7-5)	1	WASH (5-7)			TB	TB
BUF(2-10)	1	Cle (5-7)			Buf	Buf
NO (9-3)	9½	StL (6-6)			StL	StL
SF (4-8)	5½	Sea (6-6)			Sea	Sea	Elvis
NE (10-2)	1½	CHI (9-3)			NE	NE
NYJ (9-3)	5	Mia (6-6)			Mia	Mia
Den (3-9)	4	ARIZ (3-9)			Den	Ariz
SD (6-6)	9½	KC (8-4)			KC	SD
	Sun. Nite
Phi (8-4)	3½	DAL (4-8)			Phi	Dal
	Mon. Nite
Bal (8-4)	3	HOU (5-7)			Bal	Bal
NYG (8-4)	3	MIN (5-7)				Min

Our thoughts and observations were even less detailed than usual due to Jason's illness.  They included:

• Atlanta just keeps winning, and Carolina just keeps being Carolina.  Looking ahead a little, we were wondering who could possibly be picked to walk into the Georgia Dome and knock off the Falcons if they were to indeed clinch home field throughout the playoffs?  The Eagles?  Sure, they busted the Falcons in the fucking mouth in Week 6, but that was in Philly.  The Giants?  The Bears?  The Pack, who already lost down there?  The Saints, who will lose down there a week from Monday?  Honestly, if Atlanta is hosting two playoff games, aren't they a mortal lock to go to Dallas in February?
• Jason referred back to the Jeff Blake Corollary in taking the Bengals to cover the big number at Pittsburgh.  He took the Steelers in Week 10, going against the Jeff Blake Corollary, and we escaped with a cover, but he couldn't resist this time.  I'll gladly take Pittsburgh to cover over Cincinnati once again.
• The Packers keep winning, and the Lions keep being the Lions.  One observation I made during the Lions loss last week to the Bears that was very telling was that Detroit made a turnover in the 3rd quarter, stripping Bears QB Jay Cutler on a sack.  The Lions were already up 3 at that point.  They hit Calvin Johnson in the 2nd quarter on a TD pass that looked easy as pie.  So here goes 2 or 3 attempts to get the rock to Calvin after this turnover so that Detroit can get a 2-possession lead, right?  Not quite.  Run, sack, pass to the TE, kick FG.  Dumb, dumb, dumb.  Not one throw for Megatron??  Just throw it up and let him grab it!  Just once!  And that's why Detroit has averaged 4 wins every year this decade.  Same old sorry ass Lions.
• I guess the violence that the Oakland Raiders running game perpetrated upon the Chargers last week left an impression on me, because I will pick Oakland to go into Jacksonville and beat Jason's 1st place Jaguars.  I know that the Jags are running hard too with Maurice Jones-Drew, but they come up short defending the pass every week, and I think it will cost them this time.
• Washington's so bad that I think they will take advantage of Tampa Bay missing their best cover CB Aqib Talib and put up some yards through the air, and they'll still get whipped.  Fantasy geeks, watch for Bucs RB LeGarrette Blount to have a huge game, because the Redskins can't stop anyone from running the ball down their throats.
• More Jake Delhomme starting at QB for the Browns?  Our prediction?  More pain!  Despite taking the loss last week, we will once again go against the Human Interception Machine, and we'll root for those plucky Bills one more week.
• We'll take those big points and pick the Rams to cover at New Orleans.  This is a potential playoff preview, unfortunately.  St. Louis is right there contending for the rancid NFC West, and they could host the Saints in a 1st round game.  And the line would still be New Orleans favored by 9 or 10 points.
• It's time to introduce you three faithful readers of IMLD to the Elvis Game.  This is a game that appears to be such an easy pick by me and Jason that in deference to our overconfidence, we declare that it must be a trap game, that Vegas must know something we don't to make such a seemingly lopsided line.  Jason then refers to an Elvis song called "Suspicious Minds" which contains the lyric, "We're caught in a trap."  Thus, the Elvis Game.  We had quite a few of those last year, and indeed, most of the time over the years we lost the Elvis Game.  This week, the spread for Seattle-San Francisco seems too good to be true.  Coach Psycho is switching back to the ineffective Alex Smith at QB after getting routed at Green Bay.  Seattle is coming off a paddling of the Panthers.  So why the fuck is San Fran giving 5½ points?  We both love the Seahawks to get the W, which is why we feel so confident that the spread is a joke, which is why this pick is a trap game.  Confidence may be very sexy according to Sean Connery, but overconfidence is usually a bad sign in our case.
• We will gladly take New England to go into icy conditions and trounce the still overrated Chicago Bears.  If there's one QB and offense in that game that we know handles snow and wind, it's not Jay Cutler and the Bears.  We still can't get over the 59-0 assault of Tennessee that the Patriots delivered a couple of years ago in snowy, slushy weather.  I won't call that score, but I will predict another 3 TD passes for Tom Bieber.
• We will take the 5 points in New York and pick the Dolphins to cover against Rex Ryan and the humbled Jets.  Feels like another late comeback win for the reeling J-E-T-S, but I bet most of us would not be disappointed with a Miami victory.
• In the battle of two crap squads that make me vomit at the thought of having to take either, I'll give points to take the Broncos just so I don't have to pick the Goddamn Arizona Cardinals anymore this year.  (Of course, in the last 3 weeks they play 2 more teams that I want no part of, Carolina and San Fran.)  The running game has impressed lately, so hopefully Knowshon Moreno can do enough work to open up passing lanes for Air Orton.  Jason likes the thought of a no-name bum starting for Arizona and providing the answer they've been searching for all along, so he'll go with John Skelton as the new QB to lead the Cardinals to the promised land.  And he points out that anyone on the fence about Kurt Warner being a Hall of Fame QB should take one look at this shit team.  How far have they fallen without Warner leading the offense?
• Jason will pick the Chargers to put the hammer down on the Chiefs as they try to rally to yet another AFC West title.  I will take more big points here with Kansas City, as they get 9½ in San Diego.  I'm not back on the KC bandwagon at all, but rather, I continue to keep a close eye on the vaunted Charger passing game and how they've struggled the last couple of weeks.  Those receivers are still beat up, and Philip Rivers is wanting for a guy to run a route without coming up lame.  Vincent Jackson will try to go again after pulling a calf muscle.  Good luck.
• Jason will take the hook and go with the surging Cowboys, who are getting 3½ hosting Philadelphia.  He may say he likes Dallas to win as well, but really, he would only pick Big D if he had to pick straight up because he's sick of getting cute and taking a team to cover but not win.  Jason's Garrett Theory of new Dallas coach Jason Garrett holding back on the good offensive plays until Wade Phillips got fired continues to hold up.  I'll give 3 and the hook and take the Eagles because Michael Vick got to rest 10 days to get ready for this one, and because DeSean Jackson loves coming to Dallas and showing off his prodigious speed and retarded end zone dance steps.
• We like Baltimore to cover 3 at Houston, who are playing for pride at this point.  I think it will be a shootout with Arian Foster doing work on the ground and Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson keeping up in the air, but I think that the Ravens and Joe Flacco prevail ultimately.  Jason doesn't think it will be close.
• And finally, a 2nd Monday night game.  Weather forced the New York Giants to go to Minneapolis a day late, and the NFL pushed their game against the Vikings to Monday night.  Yes, there is no pick in my space.  That's because I would like to execute the first-ever Contingency Pick here at IMLD.  As you know, the Brett Favre Rule states that I will not pick Favre ever again in a game that he starts.  But as of press time, he still can't lift his damn arm.  I find it impossible to believe that he will play in this game, and if he doesn't, I like Minnesota to focus on Adrian Peterson and the rushing attack and ride All Day to victory.  But if Favre starts, of course, I can't pick the Vikings.  So I have it on record that my pick is Minnesota if Tarvaris Jackson goes, and New York if Brett Favre goes.  You degenerate gamblers will recognize this as an If Bet, which counts only if a previous bet wins.  Jason is not a prisoner of any silly rules, so he'll pick the Vikings regardless of who starts.