| Fav | Spread | Dog | Final | Dre | Jay | |
| Thanksgiving | ||||||
| Hou (9-1) | 3 | DET (4-6) | Hou 34-31, OT | |||
| DAL (5-5) | 3½ | Wash (4-6) | Wash 38-31 | Wash | ||
| Thanksgiving Nite | ||||||
| NE (7-3) | 7 | NYJ (4-6) | NE 49-19 | NE | NE | |
| Sunday | ||||||
| CHI (7-3) | 6 | Min (6-4) | Chi* | Chi | ||
| CIN (5-5) | 9½ | Oak (3-7) | Cin* | Oak | ||
| Pit (6-4) | 1 | CLE (2-8) | Cle | Pit | ||
| IND (6-4) | 3 | Buf (4-6) | Buf | Ind | ||
| Tenn (4-6) | 4 | JACK (1-9) | Elvis | Jack | Jack | |
| Den (7-3) | 10 | KC (1-9) | Den | Den* | ||
| Atl (9-1) | 1 | TB (6-4) | Atl | TB* | ||
| Sea (6-4) | 2½ | MIA (4-6) | Sea | Sea | ||
| Bal (8-2) | 1 | SD (4-6) | SD* | Bal | ||
| SF (7-2-1) | 1 | NO (5-5) | NO | NO | ||
| ARIZ (4-6) | 1 | StL (3-6-1) | StL | StL | ||
| Sun. Nite | ||||||
| NYG (6-4) | 3 | GB (7-3) | NY | GB* | ||
| Mon. Nite | ||||||
| Car (2-8) | 3 | PHI (3-7) | Phi | Phi | ||
Some of our thoughts and observations included:
- I'm going to lock in the Bears right off the bat as they finally step down in class after two weeks against two of the top teams in the NFL. Jason won't lock it up, but he feels also that it's a must-win for Chicago against an inferior team, and they will step it up. I must say, the news of Jay Cutler returning swung my pick completely. Yes, the offensive line has been terrible as usual, but if I had to watch one more week of Jason Campbell, I was going to go with the Vikings. But Cutler should symbolize a return to normalcy for a very good, if not great, team.
- I'll also lock up the Bengals in the Carson Palmer Bowl. Cincinnati gets some more bums to slay in the form of a beat-up Raiders team still without their best player, RB Darren McFadden. I actually like Palmer to put up a nice game in his return to Cincy, but I like Andy Dalton to put up better numbers and lay claim to Cincinnati as his town and his town alone. Jason's not trusting the Bengals, and he'll pick Interception Santa to cover that big number.
- Jay's rebelling against all of the Charlie Batch hate and riding the Steelers in Cleveland. He was shocked that Pittsburgh was only a 1-point fav against a clearly worse squad. He'll trust the 37-year-old Batch to have it in him to beat the Cleveland Browns. I can't have the same faith in Batch. It's not just him, it's the Steelers in general being really beat up (isn't it a sign of End of Days when you have to sign Plaxico Burress?) and facing a Browns team that has shown fight at home this season. Yes, this week, it is me with the Brown Fever. Hope the Browns don't shit the bed and make me regret it.
- Another disagreement between Jay and me. Indianapolis didn't air any footage of the postgame after New England violated them last week, so I guess Chuckstrong didn't make the road trip. But Jason's back on the Colts as they host the Bills. He cites the same factor that I did in picking the Bears, which is, the Colts are taking a big step down in class from their opponent last week. I'm going with Buffalo in a coin flip. Both teams can give up big plays on the ground and in the air, but Buffalo has been better lately in rushing the passer, and maybe that's the difference. And Buffalo had the ten-day rest after the Thursday night win over Miami, giving them a little mini-bye.
- Elvis had to sing a few bars of "Suspicious Minds" as we felt like we're caught in a trap looking at Tennessee as a road favorite against a Jacksonville team invigorated by the change at QB last week. We both really like the Jags to win with Chad Henne at the helm, although neither of us had the balls to lock it up. But the Titans are far from a great franchise waiting to knock the Jaguars down a notch. We'll have to give the Titans big respect if they come in off the bye and punch Jacksonville in the mouth, but we're both going with the Jags to build on last week.
- Jason will lock up Peyton Manning as a huge road favorite (largest spread of the week) in a division matchup. That's a lot going against him, but at its essence, it's the 7-3 Broncos having to win by more than 10 against the 1-9 Chiefs, and if we don't overthink it, it's a task that shouldn't be very hard. Kansas City is FedEx'ing it in, scoring no more than 16 points from Week 5 on, and if they show some pride and give Denver a game, good for them, but we're not going to predict it to happen. It's very likely that they won't fight, especially with Brady Quinn once again attempting to play NFL QB.
- And now, nothing but small spreads the rest of the way. We'll really earn our tout titles in these games. It's a perfect storm for Jay to lock up Tampa Bay as they host the Falcons--he's got Falcon Hate from the way they've broken his heart over the years, and he's digging the hot streak of his favorite QB, Josh Freeman. Add in what Muscle Hamster can do to the Atlanta front 7, and Jason's loving the Buccaneers at home. But, Jason cited a stat in his zeal, and that spells doom for him, as we know. He marveled at how Tampa has scored more points on the season than Atlanta, and, for that matter, the mighty Packers. Oh, Jason, you and stats do not mix well typically. So I'm taking Atlanta to pull one out late. Tampa's definitely the hotter team, but are they better? Not yet, not with that secondary ready to get torched by Matty Ice. Look for WR Julio Jones to be the hero late, as the Falcons are going to try to use him less early to reserve him for later.
- Seattle is not at home in the Meat Grinder, and they are making what by distance I think is the longest road trip in the damn league, and they play at what will be 10A Seattle time, fucking with their body clocks. It's all good, because they're playing the Dolphins. The Seahawks are typically bad on the road, and Miami is typically bad at home. Something's gotta give, and we think it will be the team that got embarrassed at home a couple of weeks ago by the Goddamn Tennessee Titans.
- Speaking of embarrassing, fuck you faggot Ravens. You get a gift of a Pittsburgh team starting Byron Leftwich instead of Ben Roethlisberger, you let his fat ass run around for a TD on the ground after he hit a big pass play in the air, then when you shut him down, your offense goes on the fritz long enough for you to not cover by a half point. Thanks. Yeah, I'm locking up the Bolts to stick it up your ass. Philip Rivers found a new toy in Danario Alexander, and it's too late to save Norv Turner's job, but he and Antonio Gates should be enough to mow down the gutless Baltimore Ravens. Jason calls San Diego "the Cowboys of the AFC." That's correct, that's not a compliment.
- We're both not feeling great about picking New Orleans to knock off San Francisco, but hey, the Saints are the only team in the league that may be as hot as the Bucs, Broncos, or Pats. Jas doesn't see smooth sailing for the kid who's only going to make his 2nd NFL start at QB for San Fran, Colin Kaepernick. I also want to see him prove that he can perform in the environment that he's going to encounter in the Superdome. Should be close and very good, but we like Drew Brees to find a way again.
- We also like the Rams to find a way against the Cardinals because the Cardinals like to give you chances to find a way. Lots of chances. This Ryan Lindley Experiment at QB for Arizona will continue, and he makes his first NFL start against the St. Louis D-line, comprised of hungry guys who will feed on Lindley's carcass. Nice call, Ken Whisenhunt. Please pack your belongings and leave now.
- Jason's going to lock in the Pack as they visit the enigmatic New York Giants. He likes the idea of Eli Manning continuing to throw balls up for grabs as the Green Bay secondary settles underneath them. That's what the Packers defensive backfield does best. They may not be great tacklers or cover guys, but they do camp under bad throws like nobody's business. Why am I not on the same page? Well, for no good reason, I'm going to predict that Eli won't be throwing the terrible balls he's been throwing. If the "pitcher's dead arm" theory espoused by ESPN's Ron Jaworski in the film room was true, then think about what they do with pitchers who have a dead arm. "Have a seat, son, skip a turn in the rotation and rest up." And the G-Men had their bye last week, so Eli got his rest. I'm giving him the benefit and going with him this one time. But if he displays accuracy issues on the deep ball again, then I have to downgrade him and once again put him on the do-not-pick list. As Jay says, if he still can't throw after a week off, it's not a dead arm issue, it's probably a hidden injury issue.
- This horrible Monday night game will provide some opportunities for you fellow married guys to earn some brownie points talking with the wife or having a date night or taking care of the kids while she rests. The slightly interesting aspect is how little love Nick Foles is getting in the point spread. The pathetic Panthers are road favorites at Philadelphia, who may be mailing it in completely at this point. But we're giving the Eagles one more chance. Carolina simply hasn't done anything to deserve backing them as 3-point road favorites. In a battle of dumb and bad vs. dumb and bad, we're both going to pick Philly to pull it out. I still think Foles has something to offer, and Carolina should let him show it.
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