| Fav | Spread | Dog | Final | Dre | Jay | |
| Thu. Nite | ||||||
| BUF (3-6) | 1 | Mia (4-5) | Buf 19-14 | Buf | Buf | |
| Sunday | ||||||
| WASH (3-6) | 3½ | Phi (3-6) | Phi | Phi | ||
| GB (6-3) | 3 | DET (4-5) | Det | GB | ||
| ATL (8-1) | 9½ | Ariz (4-5) | Ariz | Atl | ||
| TB (5-4) | 1 | CAR (2-7) | TB | TB | ||
| DAL (4-5) | 9½ | Cle (2-7) | Dal | Cle | ||
| STL (3-5-1) | 3½ | NYJ (3-6) | NY | StL | ||
| HOU (8-1) | 15 | Jack (1-8) | Hou | Hou | ||
| Cin (4-5) | 3½ | KC (1-8) | Cin | Cin | ||
| NO (4-5) | 4½ | OAK (3-6) | Oak | Oak | ||
| NE (6-3) | 9½ | Ind (6-3) | Ind | Ind | ||
| DEN (6-3) | 8½ | SD (4-5) | Den | Den | ||
| Sun. Nite | ||||||
| Bal (7-2) | 3½ | PIT (6-3) | Bal | Pit | ||
| Mon. Nite | ||||||
| SF (6-2-1) | 6 | Chi (7-2) | Chi | Chi | ||
Some of our thoughts and observations included:
- Jason starts out getting cute with no Michael Vick playing for the Eagles. He likes Philly to cover as a dog at RG3, but Washington to win. No Vick means no turning the fucking ball over to the opponent once you reach their red zone, or at least a reduced chance of that happening. I agree totally with Jay's logic. Vick had become toxic with his refusal to let go of the ball until someone was about to level him, and from what little I saw of the Philadelphia QB Nick Foles, he's already more trustworthy than Vick. I don't know if he'll have enough success to save Andy Reid's job, but against the porous Redskins secondary, I'll take him to pull out an upset win.
- I'm not getting cute with the 3-point line in Detroit. I got the Lions to knock off the Packers. Why? Because I was looking forward to Green Bay getting some very talented guys back from injury coming off the bye, and for the most part, they're staying sidelined. No Greg Jennings, no Charles Woodson, no Clay Matthews (the only pass rush they have), and Jordy Nelson is still gimping around. They need all hands on deck the way Detroit is moving the ball through the air (#1 in the NFL), and they don't have 'em. Jason still calls for a rout. The weapons GB still have remaining should be enough to beat the Lions.
- I will get cute and pick the rotting corpse of the Arizona Cardinals to come off their bye and give Atlanta a fight. The Falcons haven't been impressive at home this year ATS, and I'm wondering if they'll have a bit of trouble motivating themselves after losing the perfect season last week. This isn't exactly a team chock full of veterans who know how to move on from such a disappointment. What's their mental state? Jason's not worried about any of that because they're still playing the Cardinals, after all. Smells like a 40-17 bounce back to him.
- I'll take Tampa to win and cover that 1. Wow, I'm out on a limb! But seriously folks, I can't justify taking the Panthers, one of the NFL's lowest performers, against the Buccaneers, who are outperforming all expectations at the moment. As much as I want to give Cam Newton another chance against an awful pass defense, he hasn't done enough to warrant it. Neither has his coaching staff, who refuse to let him throw more even though he's averaging 8 yards per pass attempt. The power run attack hasn't worked, so it's time to try something else, but coach Ron Rivera and his crew don't seem to be bright enough. Jason's loving his guy Josh Freeman putting together a big year, so he's on the bandwagon firmly.
- Jay's not going to trust "the stupidest team in football," the Dallas Cowboys, to cover double digits over the Cleveland Browns. He feels that they will find a way to give up a garbage-time TD and win by one possession. I'm no Browns fan, I'm no Brandon Weeden fan, and I'm not trusting a team 0-4 on the road and who may be without their best cornerback, Joe Haden. One of these days, the Cowboys have to step up against an inferior team and stomp them out. Don't they?
- Here's where I get really cute. St. Louis should build on forcing a tie against the mighty 49ers and take that momentum back home against the circus that is the New York Jets, and they should beat the hell out of the Jets and cover the number. But I don't trust the Rams to be able to accomplish that. The Rams are 19th in passing, and Sam Bradford to me is competing for the Total Fraud title because that's horrible for a #1 overall draft pick in his 3rd year. However, Mark Sanchez has been extra "fraudy" lately, and I can't possibly think he would lead the Jets to a victory. So yeah, Rams by a FG. What the hay. Jason will take St. Louis over the hot mess that is Gang Green, and I don't blame him one bit.
- If we did Power Rankings, there's a good chance Houston would be #1 and Jacksonville would be #32, although Jason says he's got teams with worse records as more dangerous in his mind than the Texans. But this is the rare battle of consensus best team in the league vs. worst team, and we're not able to take the worst team to cover that massive number. It would be harder if Houston had displayed a more consistent offense this year, because we know that hot offenses can make spreads even bigger than this one. I think the Jags would be 16 or 17-point dogs at New England, to use one example. But Houston can cover this number by scoring on only three possessions. TD, TD, FG, smother the pathetic Jags offense. 17-0 works for us.
- The impossible-to-predict Bengals travel to Kansas City, and if you believe in the Chiefs after that impressive effort at Pittsburgh this past Monday, then you would have to like them to lose by less than 3½ or maybe even win. Color us not believers. Will the Bengals slay another bum? We'll stick with them after they handed a whoopin' to the Giants. We might have had to go another direction if the line was bigger, because Cincy winning by a TD on the road would be hard to imagine, but this number is small enough for us.
- Back to gettin' cute: New Orleans engages in another duel with a crappy pass defense a week after prevailing over Atlanta, and I got them beating Oakland and Interception Santa by a point or two after Santa delivers the game-winning pick. I'm not about to trust the Saints to run off a long streak of covers with their D still playing as terrible as they are. And frankly, I chuckle at them being a 4½-point fav on the road versus a team with a whopping one less win than them. Jason will go even further, taking Oakland to win. The Raiders can't run or defend Drew Brees, but that's how Godawful the New Orleans defense is.
- Should be a shootout in Foxboro between the Colts and Patriots, perhaps reminiscent of the Manning-Brady contests from last decade? Is Andrew Luck ready for that and all it entails? You know he's hearing the comparisons all week, and that can be smothering to a youngster. But Jason and I really like Luck's makeup, and we think he'll rise to the moment and engage Terrific Tom in a back-and-forth, which should result in a one-possession loss, which easily covers 9½ points. I believe Jay threw out a 400-yard game for Luck. If that happens, he really needs to hit Vegas.
- Speaking of Peyton Manning, he gets to torch the San Diego back end once again, you remember, the defense that let Manning come back from down 24-0 in Week 6 on Monday night. Boy, the Chargers have to come in deflated after somehow losing that game in Tampa last week to drop below .500. This is a must-win game for them, but unfortunately, it's against Peyton Manning in the midst of one of his hottest stretches ever. Gotta go Broncos squoosh here.
- Jason is going rogue on Sunday night, taking Byron Leftwich and the Pittsburgh Steelers to upset the Baltimore Ravens. He sees Leftwich going off on a Ravens team that's good at underestimating opponents, especially when they travel. If Baltimore is next level this year, as Jay and I both believed in picking them to win the Super Bowl, then they are not going to gag in the prime-time moment as they have in the past. So I will keep the faith in them and believe that they see a chance to bury their prime rival in the next couple of weeks while they play without their leader at QB. A big factor not to overlook: The Steelers are also without their 2nd-best WR, Antonio Brown, so Leftwich will be keying on Mike Wallace, and when he's not there, it will be Emanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery coming to the rescue, and I think that spells really bad news for Pittsburgh.
- On Monday, it appears that Alex Smith will take the helm for San Francisco against the Bears defense. We really like that. I'm of the opinion that the Niners would have been much more dangerous with Colin Kaepernick at QB because he can play from behind or in front with his athleticism, whereas Smith has been proven to only be able to play from in front. Jason the Bear Whisperer is on my side, pointing to the circumstances being ripe for his traditional Chicago pick: They're on national TV, they're visiting the West Coast, and they're the underdog. I don't know how much better Jason Campbell will be at QB for Chicago than he was last week, but the defense feeding on Alex Smith should give Campbell a cushion to relax. In what should be a violent encounter of two defenses hammering the fuck out of each other, we'll take the Bears to come out on top.
No comments:
Post a Comment