Thu. Nite Steelers @ Titans

There must be a damn good reason for both Jason and me to go road fav on the short week.  I didn't talk to Jas before he texted me his 27-9 Pittsburgh prediction over Tennessee, but I'm going to assume it's for the same reason that I'm also calling for a Steelers squoosh:  The Titans positively blow.  It's a very good test for my thought that you can't take the road team on Thursday unless it's the only choice.  I wanted to give the Titans the benefit, and I wanted to slight the Steelers because they haven't been impressive at all this season.  But I'll have to forsake stats and go with the eyeball test this evening.  Tennessee just doesn't look ready to compete with any professional team right now.  The line is Pit -6.  If it matters, I may not go road team on Thursday the rest of the fucking year.

My Pick:  Pittsburgh 38-13

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2012 Week 5: What I Learned

• I learned to be grateful when I get a week over .500 picking stupid shit like the Jaguars in a big upset or the Ravens on the road against inferior competition.  What was I thinking?
• How 'bout that undefeated Arizona squad?  No one saw them comin'!  They're the next big thing, they're hot, they're on the come, they're...being sacked 702 times by the Rams, who weren't even blitzing extra guys.  They're fucked.
• Shout out to DA!!  David Aldridge, Washington, DC native and sidekick on Tony Kornheiser's radio show, had a prediction that Robert Griffin III would get KTFO and miss time because the Shanahan Boyz didn't know how to use him properly, what with all of their retarded option plays and called QB sprints.  I don't care how athletic he is, you don't do that to your star franchise QB.  But Aldridge didn't just say it would happen eventually, he said it would happen Week 5, guaranteed.  And he said this before the Goddamn season began.  I bow to the greatness of David Aldridge.  I'll get to Andrew Luck later, but as an example, he's quite the athletic QB and the Colts don't have him running the fucking option.  If he were of African heritage, maybe...anyhow, Atlanta needed that hit and the Washington defense to play down to their potential to mount a 2nd-half comeback.  Cause for concern?  Perhaps, but you should always be cautious picking the Falcons on grass.  They're just not the same team, ass-kickings of San Diego and Kansas City this year notwithstanding.
• I'm about through with Michael Vick.  He may be done.  Like, ineffective the rest of his career done.  This dude refuses to be careful with the football, plus he's not nearly as electric as he used to be.  Philadelphia had a formula with Vick a couple of years back when they saw that he still had some game.  His open-field talent scared the fuck out of other teams, so they could sprint him a couple of times to set up huge shots downfield throwing to DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin.  But now teams are better at covering those receivers at all times, and Vick isn't nearly as explosive as just a couple of years back.  And now, he's also giving up the ball almost every time he handles it.  Pittsburgh worries me too because their offensive rhythm was all off early, but I'll let it slide due to coming back from the bye week.  Big Ben and the WRs put it together in the end, but not enough to cover the number.
• Indy Inspiration because of their sick coach?  Uh, no.  Here's the thing about media narratives:  You gotta be smart and inspect all of these stories and find the real truth.  Don't you think that if for one second the Colts could play better football just because they were inspired by their head coach Chuck Pagano being out due to leukemia, it would manifest itself in the first half?  It's that simple, people.  If Indianapolis were inspired by Coach, they wouldn't have trailed 21-3 in the 3rd quarter.  They were down because they're not good and Green Bay is, and they came back and won because they mounted a pass rush on the Packers and their shit offensive line, and because Andrew Luck is a fucking baller.  No more, no less.  Oh, one more reason--always keep an eye on Clay Matthews, 'cause I'm still convinced that GB's defense performs only as well as he does.  And he was absent during the Colt rally.  They picked him up very well on his blitzes.  They deserve the credit, not the ghost of Chuck Pagano.
• Maybe the New York Giants don't play well unless they're in some sort of crisis.  They don't make Super Bowl runs unless they're the last team in the playoffs, all road games, all hostile environs.  They're historically mediocre at home under Tom Coughlin.  And their three home games this season, they got dong-whipped by the Cowboys, were getting killed by the Bucs before Eli Manning threw for 6,000 yards, and they were losing by double digits in the 1st half to the Cleveland Browns.  Gawd.  Maybe they turned it on and came back only because it was the Cleveland Browns.  Maybe a real team smothers them and puts them away.  The Browns?  They're employing a QB who qualifies for AARP and yet didn't know that when you throw a forward pass once and it gets knocked back to you, that's a completed pass, and you can't throw it forward again.  That about sums that game up.
• Cincinnati had a good rhythm going on offense early against Miami, but the game got decided because Andy Dalton and co. settled for FGs, and Ryan Tannehill and the Fins didn't.  When two similar teams go head-to-head, something that simple often decides it.  Miami's defense cinched it up and kept the Bengals out of the end zone.  Both teams scored 3 times, but Miami scored two TDs, and that was that.  A missed Mike Nugent FG late helped, too.
• What was that mess in Kansas City?  I'm not talking about cheering the Chiefs' QB Matt Cassel getting hurt.  I have no problem with that.  If he didn't suck, he wouldn't have gotten booed.  I'm talking about the Ravens and Joe Flacco losing their mojo and turning in a turd of a performance against a defense that had not impressed anyone this year.  I'm sick and tired of this team playing like shit against teams that they underestimate.  I thought they had gotten over that this season, but maybe not.  Baltimore allowed 3.2 yards per carry coming into this game.  How the fuck did Jamaal Charles rush for 125 in the 1st half?  And how did KC not have a lead with that kind of outing?  Oh yeah, Cassel's their QB.  Almost forgot.  Well, not for the near future.  Now Kansas City gets to cheer for the backup...BRADY QUINN?!?  Oh no.  They're gonna want Cassel back within the next couple of weeks.
• I don't like Cam Newton's decision-timing right now.  Not his decision-making, his decision-timing.  He doesn't seem to be making really bad decisions, like throwing into double-coverage or things like that.  But he seems to be taking forever to choose what he wants to do.  The offensive line can only block so long.  Whether it's option plays or drop-back throws, Cam's got a crisis of confidence going, and he'd better snap out of it quickly.  His coordinator called a throw late in the game on 4th-and-1, and I like that even less.  WTF???  The incompletion stopped a Panthers drive and gave a win to the Seahawks, and Seattle earned it, but still, Carolina didn't have a fair chance to let their playmakers make the plays to steal it at the end.  Really, 4th-and-1 and you need to call a pass??
• Jay Cutler's pick-and-stick rhythm belied my thoughts that he and Mike Tice couldn't call a good game plan two weeks in a row.  I was dead fucking wrong.  No two ways about it.  It helped that Jacksonville has absolutely no pass rush, but I knew that when I made the pick, so that's no excuse.  I'm sure the Bears are wondering, just as everyone else watching, how were they tied at the half with this dogshit team?  Then the 2nd half happened, and the cream rose to the top.
• Speaking of the better team putting it together, Minnesota--who, again, don't misunderstand me, is not a good NFL team, not at all--just trounced Tennessee, and that 30-7 score isn't right because it was a bigger blowout than even that.  Tennessee might be the worst team in the league.
• Peyton Manning was on his way to leading a comeback that would have earned Jason and me a backdoor cover when McGahee happened.  That's Willis McGahee, the Denver RB who's been pretty good this year but had a 4th quarter in New England that he'd like to forget.  He dropped a 4th-and-1 pass (there's that throwing on 4th-and-1 shit again), and he fumbled on the final Broncos drive.  Add in DeMaryius Thomas catching a long pass from Peyton on the opening drive and getting stripped at the NE 14, and the story of the game was, two surgeons in Manning and Tom Brady doing what surgeons do, but Manning was betrayed by his teammates.  I still think those long rainbow throws from Peyton don't have much on them, and a real secondary would have been camped under most of them.
• Wait...Buffalo might be worst team in the league.  Do the Titans and Bills play this year?
• Maybe there was inspiration in the air in New Orleans as well?  After all, the exiled coach and GM and defensive coordinator were all in the house for Drew Brees to break the all-time consecutive TD pass record.  That should have propelled the Saints to a blowout win over the Chargers...except the Chargers were winning 24-14 in the 3rd quarter.  Again, take that bullshit media narrative about being inspired by coaches or GMs or whatever and throw it as far out the window as your arms will allow.  The Saints won the game (and covered the number) mostly because Brees and WRs Devery Henderson and Marques Colston got on the same page for the first time this season.  Also, because on the San Diego final drive, referees twice disallowed big passes downfield due to dubious penalties, then LT Jared Gaither blew a tire and let NO defenders run right around him to get to QB Philip Rivers, and one of those defenders sacked Rivers, stripped the ball, and covered it up for the win.  Sean Payton didn't make Gaither's leg cramp up.
• I'm afraid Monday night showed me something I didn't want to admit:  Houston's not very good.  I like them a lot because they come right at you on offense and defense, without a lot of razzle-dazzle.  But look, the Jets are complete crap up and down, and the Texans should have killed them with the quickness.  But Houston was so lackluster that they were lucky they were playing the Jets, because another team may have completed the comeback and won the game.  Instead, New York managed to cover.  I've been talking about Houston's terrible schedule so far this year, and they still should sweep their division because all those teams stink.  But I don't think I'm taking them against any decent teams until they show me some consistency.  They let Mark Sanchez hit large plays in the air with receivers whom most of us have never heard of.  Kerley?  Where was Larry and Moe?  Schilens?  Wasn't he cut by the Raiders?  Cumberland?  Who the hell is he?  And anyone worried about the Jets' QB choice for purposes other than gambling or fantasy, please get hit by a fast train.  Thank you.

 Week 5 Records--Dre 8-6, .571; Jay 5-9, .357
YTD Records--Dre 44-31-2, .587; Jay 42-33-2, .560

Week 5 ATS Recap: Damage Control

Every year, we have those weeks. The weeks where favorites barely don't cover spreads, upsets don't come through, and the reads on certain teams just weren't accurate. Sometimes we just have "weeks like that." The key is, don't let those be 2 or 3 win weeks, like I've stacked up the last few seasons. Even this week, I'll take a 5-9, and I know for damn certain that Dre will take his 8-6 (hell of a season he's having, by the way).

Changing topics, this week I was informed by Dre that our late night Saturday picks were wearing him out, what with the 2 hours it takes us to focus to get the picks in, and then the time it takes him to post the picks. Totally understandable. We are pretty consistent with our 8:30 Central start times, because fuck it, we do it live. So I offered to call him earlier, say 7pm. That won't work, he says, because he hasn't had time to get all the research in for his picks. In fact, he hadn't even finished picking the prime time matchups for Week 5 when I called at 8:30. We lost both those picks.

• Rams (+2½) 17, Cardinals 3 - Both winners - Thank God for Thursday night. We gifted ourselves a win in the TNF contest, both of us on the thinking that the Cardinals were nowhere near as talented nor as deserving of the hype they were having heaped upon them. The Rams didn't look like world beaters, but when Kevin Kolb is overthrowing everyone in sight, you don't need to.
• Falcons (-3) 24, Redskins 17 - Both winners - Looks like the Falcons enployed the Mike Vick Defense against RG3. As in, bust him the fucking head until he can't come back in the game anymore and voila! you win! The Falcons should know how to play that defense since they saw it enough during the Vick years in Atlanta.
• Steelers 16, Eagles (+3½) 14 - Both winners - Much will be made of Mike Vick losing two more fumbles, but the Steelers pretty much dominated the stat sheet (and thanks to Vick won the turnover battle). I'll just say thanks for the cheap cover and move on.
• Colts (+7) 30, Packers 27 - Jason winner, Dre loser - It would figure that this would be one of the head to heads I won against Dre this week, since my whole rationale for the pick was "um, yeah!" Dre was only upset that I didn't go Howard Dean on him.
• Giants (-9½) 41, Browns 27 - Dre winner, Jason loser - The Browns actually played this game much tighter than the final indicated, initally jumping out to a 17-7 lead. In the end, the Browns had no answer for the Giants running attack (over 200 yards) or Brandon Weeden not knowing how many forward passes you can attempt on the same play (hint: it's not 2).
• Dolphins (+3½) 17, Bengals 13 - Dre winner, Jason loser  - Oh, how you've forsaken me Bengal Bumslayer Rule. How can we continue to live in a world where the Bengals don't feast upon teams with losing records. For 4 weeks, this was a mortal lock. Now, chaos.
• Ravens 9, Chiefs (+6½) 6 - Both losers - Seriously? Only THESE Ravens could phone a game like this in. You could have a paraplegic play this game in Madden 100 times as the Ravens and get a cover every time. But THESE Ravens show up in phone-it-in mode and can't even score a touchdown. Not one measley TD? In other news, Chiefs fans cheered when Matt Cassell got hurt, and wow, that's just cold. His backup is Brady Quinn. This reminds me of Bears fans being happy that Jay Cutler got hurt so they could see more Caleb Hanie. Careful what you wish for.
• Seahawks (+2½) 16, Panthers 12 - Dre winner, Jason loser - This is starting to get ugly for Cam Newton. I don't know what it is about these quarterbacks that are tremendously gifted athletes coming to the pros, but they don't handle adversity very well at all. Why does Newtons situation now remind me oh so much of Vince Youngs career trajectory. In college, both those guys were just better and faster than everyone else, so the game was just easy, they never had to face any real pressure. Both won national championships as well on the strength of their gifts. One flamed out, and the other, if he's not careful, could be in the same company a few years down the road. You're the team leader. Lead it.
• Bears (-5½) 41, Jaguars 3 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Now for a few picks from the Batshit Insane Department. Part One: Dre had the Jags to WIN this game.
• Vikings (-5½) 30, Titans 7 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Batshit Insane: Part Two. I had the Titans to hang with the Vikes. Wow, the Titans are a steaming pile right now.
• Patriots (-6½) 31, Broncos 21 - Both losers - Do the Broncos plan on ever getting a lead against good teams? It's hard to win when you're only hope is a mad dash comeback attempt from Peyton Manning. I mean it's fun to watch, but the Broncos appear to be heavily mediocre. They may have a little Bumslayer in them.
• Niners (-10) 45, Bills 3 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Batshit Insane: Part Three. What was I thinking? My only solace here is knowing that Dre is slowly being driven to madness (more madness) every time the Niners offense lights up some fools. The Niners gained 621 yards on offense. That's obscene, even given the awfulness of the Bills defense. The Bills gave up less to New England in their 52 point outburst. How sad for the Bills, though? 97 points against in TWO WEEKS? There's 12 teams that haven't given up that many points all season. And I picked them.
• Saints (-3½) 31, Chargers 24 - Both losers - This was the Show-Me pick of the week. In my pick, I stated I wouldn't be shocked to see a Saint win here. I mean, they weren't going 0-16 with that offense, but I was picking against them til they showed me something.
• Texans 23, Jets (+9) 17 - Both losers - Yeah, the Jets covered, but the superior team prevailed in the end. Despite all the trickeration and Razzle Dazzle on special teams, including a 100 yard KO return for a touchdown, the Jets just didn't have the muscle to compete with Houston. Total Fraud completed less than 50% of his throws, the Jet defense was gashed repeatedly by Arian Foster, and the Tim Tebow wildcat isn't even the best wildcat currently in the NFL (that would be the Colin Kaepernick version of it in San Fran). Sadly, the Texans 5-0 start will be overshadowed by the nuclear implosion going on at Jet camp. This is seriously going to be the most overhyped and overcovered 7-9 team EVER.

2012 Week #5

Week 5 is where some silliness can start to occur during a football season.  Teams who were great in the first 4 games can start to come back to Earth, other teams who stunk can figure out why they stink, and teams can lose focus and start going down to not-so-good units.  I've got a few surprises for this week's picks, and Jason does too.  We'll see which can keep his red-hot season going.

Fav	Spread	Dog			Dre	Jay
	Thu. Nite
Ariz (4-0)	2½	STL (2-2)	StL 17-3		StL	StL
	Sunday
Atl (4-0)	3	WASH (2-2)			Atl	Atl
PIT (1-2)	3½	Phi (3-1)			Phi	Phi
GB (2-2)	7	IND (1-2)			GB	Ind
NYG (2-2)	9½	Cle (0-4)			NY	Cle
CIN (3-1)	3	Mia (1-3)			Mia	Cin
Bal (3-1)	6½	KC (1-3)			Bal	Bal
CAR (1-3)	2½	Sea (2-2)			Sea	Car
Chi (3-1)	5½	JACK (1-3)			Jack	Chi
MIN (3-1)	5½	Tenn (1-3)			Min	Tenn
NE (2-2)	6½	Den (2-2)			Den	Den
SF (3-1)	10	Buf (2-2)			SF	Buf
	Sun. Nite
NO (0-4)	3½	SD (3-1)			SD	SD
	Mon. Nite
Hou (4-0)	9	NYJ (2-2)			Hou	Hou

Some of our thoughts and observations included:

• The love affair with RG3 goes back home to DC as the Redskins host the perfect Falcons.  We're going with Atlanta to stay perfect.  Not only can I not figure out how Robert Griffin III can keep averaging well over 8 yards per pass attempt when he has almost no weapons, not only does the no-account, sorry-ass Washington pass rush get to try to harness Matty Ice, but a stat, and a very simple one:  Washington is 0-7 in their last 7 home games.  The Falcons haven't played down to the competition yet.  Don't start this week, please.
• Pittsburgh is coming off a bye, and veteran defenders Troy Polamalu and James Harrison should give it a go against Michael Vick and the Eagles in a fight for the state of Pennsylvania.  But Jason and I are getting worried about the health and age of the Steelers defense.  Still looking to play at a high level on offense despite being 3-1, we like Vick and the Eagles to get the win.  Jay calls Philly "the most underachieving 3-1 team ever," but we still like them over a slower than usual Pittsburgh team compiling only 5 sacks and 1 pick through their first 3 games.
• If not for Graham Harrell's butterfingers, the Packers were well on their way to covering the number against New Orleans.  Someone get Aaron Rodgers a visor to protect those eyes.  I will take Green Bay to build on that momentum and take out a game Indianapolis squad coming off a bye.  If that Pack D backslides and lets Andrew Luck throw his way back, the Colts could cover, but I'm hoping they can get a lead and rush the passer and have some fun.  Jason will go with the Luck of the Horseshoe (see what I did there?) to cover that TD.  When I asked why, he profoundly responded, "Um...yeah."  So he's got a solid grasp on why he expects Indy to stay close with Green Bay.
• I've been burned so many times picking the Giants to cover a big number that I really thought I would go with Cleveland as Jason did before I studied my precious stats.  Jay, showing his age, talked about the Browns hanging tough like NKOTB, and I think I just threw up in my mouth a little.  Yes, Cleveland has shown fight in all of their games.  They've also shown that they suck.  They will bring the 28th-ranked pass defense to Jersey to face Eli Manning's 2nd-ranked pass offense.  I can see Eli throwing for 300 yards even without Ramses Barden or Hakeem Nicks.
• The Bengal Bumslayer Rule will sway Jason to take Cincinnati over Miami, who sport a bumtastic 1-3 record.  Why am I picking the Dolphins for the upset win?  Because I think they're a smidge above "Bum."  Arizona's defense was overrated, but not where they should have given up over 400 yards to Ryan Tannehill and over 250 yards to Brian Hartline.  Cincy's defense should accommodate Miami putting up more big numbers.  The Bengals are giving up a massive 5.4 yards per carry and 7.7 yards per throw.  The Andy Dalton-to-A.J. Green Connection probably won't be derailed, but the Fins may have the last possession, and the last laugh.
• I had bad flashbacks of that playoff game a few years ago, when Jamaal Charles was supposed to lead Kansas City to a defining win over Baltimore.  Charles burst for a big TD and a 7-0 lead, and the Chiefs proceeded to act like they just realized that they don't belong on a major stage.  This year, KC and "defensive guru" Romeo Crennel is giving up 8.5 yards per throw.  Once again, they're not ready for a major stage.  Jason says there will be a banner flying over the game that will read "Fire Pioli, Bench Cassel."  The only reason Crennel isn't in that banner is, he just got there.  Be patient, Romeo.  They'll hate you too imminently.
• What a great test for a Seattle defense that has performed admirably this year thus far.  The Carolina Panthers are far from perfect, but they are an extremely potent offense that will maul you if you're not careful.  Jason will go with the Panthers and Cam Newton to build off of their showing against Atlanta and knock off the Seahawks making a long trip.  I'll go with Seattle in a close one.  Marshawn Lynch can go Beast Mode on this D, especially without Jon Beason, who's one of Carolina's best tacklers.  And as long as Haruki Nakamura is running around for the Panthers looking like a fan who wandered in off the street, the opposition always has a chance.
• Now is where I get silly.  Chicago looked awesome Monday night in killing the always overhyped Dallas Cowboys, and now they get to go to Florida to face what may be the worst team in the league, the Jacksonville Jaguars.  Jason and many, many other folks cannot fathom the Bears blowing this contest, and they like Chi-Town to rumble.  He LOVES the under, says it feels like an ugly 13-3 win.  Now, I'm not completely insane.  I'm not picking Blaine Gabbert to beat the Bears.  I'm picking Maurice Jones-Drew to beat the Bears.  Not because of any stupid grudge there may still be concerning MJD's criticism of Jay Cutler's toughness on Twitter a couple of years back during the NFC title game.  No, I'm picking this one straight up because I don't trust Mike Tice and Cutler to respect their opponent well enough to come up with a great game plan like they did in Dallas.  Consequently, the turnovers caused by Cutler getting belted will give the Jags great field position all evening, and Jones-Drew can march into the end zone with little resistance.  I hope I'm wrong and that Chicago can come up with the right offensive game plan.  But I don't trust the parties involved to respect Jacksonville's defense like they did DeMarcus Ware and the Cowboys.
• Tennessee smells.  I can smell them from here.  The Titans, not the people.  I live in Tennessee now, and trust me, the smell of these fine folks is much appreciated now that I'm far away from the smells of the panhandlers and bums of Chicago.  Anyway, the Titans will send Matt Hasselbeck out as QB after Jake Locker hurt himself again, and that's enough to give them their first win this year, according to Jason.  Minnesota's due to fall back to the pack.  He's right about that, but I don't think Tennessee's the team to do it.  The Vikings should step on a far inferior team and ascend to 4-1.  I'm not calling them a division champ or anything, but they're a not-terribly-bad squad.
• I hoped this game would be on prime time, but two surgeons, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, will perform in Massachusetts when the Broncos play the Patriots in the late afternoon.  And although Jay and I both think one surgeon has a much better arm these days, we like the other surgeon to keep it close and cover a kinda big spread.  Manning may not be what he was, but he's good enough to carve up a bad D and keep Denver in the game.  As an aside, I wonder if a coach can get away with putting the entire active roster on the injury report as "questionable" as a way to stick it back at Bill Belichick.  He's a real penis.
• Can Buffalo get out to an early advantage and force Alex Smith and the 49ers to play from behind?  No?  Then this is my Lock of the Week.  Jason thinks otherwise.  Buffalo's not the pathetic Jets, he contends, and the Bills can maybe hang close enough to San Francisco to win the pick on a garbage-time TD.  I don't think Buffalo is as bad as the Jets, either, and they should avoid the shutout.  But they're not much better, and Buffalo's defense should allow the Niners to have their way with them and do whatever they want.
• It's the very rare double-road team dip on our two nighttime picks.  First, we're going with San Diego to step into the Bayou and keep the New Orleans Saints winless.  We still haven't learned that interim interim head coach's name.  That's because he hasn't done shit to warrant the recognition.  Every time the Saints score, the Chargers should bolt right back, because that's how utterly horrendous the Saints defense has been.  They need a new bounty system, I'm telling ya.  I may not have much respect for Norv Turner, but I can't pick him to get outcoached by an interim v.2.
• And Monday night, Jon Gruden gets to make ice cream out of horseshit and try to tell a nation how good Mark Sanchez and the New York Jets can be if they tie it together and tighten it up.  What a crock that will be.  The plain fact is, the Jets don't have a real quarterback on their fucking roster, and they expect to win like that?  That outing Week 1 for Sanchez against the Bills, he should get the DVD of that game framed and forever preserved.  That Houston team they gotta face is going to get a hoot out of these Jets as they try to play and contend with one of the league's elite squads.  The Texans aren't going to be in a hurry because there's no bonus for violating your opponent quicker than normal.  They're going to take their time, they're going to beat the Jets, it's going to be clean and painless, and it should be by more than 9 points.  Even if Jesus is allowed into the game as the replacement QB.

Thu. Nite Cardinals @ Rams

No surprise that undefeated Arizona comes in to St. Louis as a 2 and a hook-point fav.  The surprise may be that Jason and I are both calling for the upset.  No, the Rams don't look like world-beaters, but neither do the Cards, at least not after letting Miami put up yards aplenty on their supposedly improved defense.  I'm glad that Steven Jackson will get a stage to show what he can do, because I'm a longtime fan.  But Sam Bradford should be the star of the evening.  If Tannehill and Hartline can go bananas on the Cards, so should Sam and Gibson.  Jason calls it 23-21.  I have a few more points on the board but the same home team winning on short rest.

My Pick:  St. Louis 27-20

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Week 4 ATS Recap: Dre's Great Season Continues!

How bout that Andre? He wasn't too receptive to all the praise I was heaping upon him for the great start to the season that he's having, but c'mon: the guy is a monster! What is it now? Eleven games over .500 for the season, and we're only through week 4. That's incredible! He basically nailed the score of the Thursday night game last week too. Amazing. You know what else? The guy doesn't change his picks either. I have to admit, after spending a night bashing the Saints and then taking them to cover the spread (which is typical for me), that I listened to my own reasoning and flip-flopped to the Packers. It's an election year, so flip-flopping should be accepted.

Dre and I differed on 8 picks, so of course he crushed me, right? I mean, the guy is sporting a .590 win percentage for the year. Hell of a season!

• Ravens 23, Browns (+12) 16 - Both winners - This was too easy. The Ravens gutted out a tough, emotional, controversial win over the team that knocked them out of the Super Bowl last year in the Patsies. In came Cleveland on a short week. We've seen this too many times to count, but of course the Ravens were going to let the Brownies hang around. Hell, they almost let them tie the game at the very end. Nothing surprising here, and don't think for an instant that this game diminishes the Ravens title hopes, this is just how they roll.
• Patriots (-Not Enough) 52, Bills 28 - Both winners - Ouch. Buffalo scores 28 and lost by almost as many. The Patriots rallied from a 21-7 deficit to score 45 second half points. That's some serious ass-whoopery.
• Texans (-11½) 38, Titans 14 - Dre winner, Jason loser - I was a little taken back when the Titans announced that Jake Locker would start the season at QB, with a brutal 5 game stretch to start the season. After next weeks game against Pittsburgh would have been a perfect time to scrape Matt Hasselbeck off the turf and turn the keys over to Locker. As it turns out, it's Locker being scraped off the turf just about every week, and now Hasselbeck looks to be starting for the forseeable future after Locker reagrivated his left shoulder separation. Nothing to report for the Texans, they're still awfully good.
• Chargers (-1) 37, Chiefs 20 - Both winners - We cited how awful the Saints are in handing this game to the Bolts. Correct we were, while Jamaal Charles comeback season continues to go strongly, the Chargers did not allow the Chiefs to RUN their way back from a big defecit the way the Saints no-account defense did. Another easy win.
• Vikings (+4) 20, Lions 13 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Props to Dre for seeing this one coming (he's having a hell of a season didn't you know?). The Lions dominated the stat sheet against the Vikes, except for a couple little things. One: special teams. Two: Scoreboard! The Lions special teams channeled their inner Chargers special teams en route to allowing two special teams scores for the second straight week. They lost both games by a combined 10 points. I'm still not sold on the Vikings, who could be last years Bills. No, that's not something to aspire to.
• Falcons 30, Panthers (+7) 28 - Both winners - Sure, the Falcons needed some careless Cam Newton ball handling and horrific secondary play to eke out a win at home against a game Panther squad, but would the Falcons have it any other way? This Atlanta squad just keeps racking up regular season wins, which is nice and all, but we've seen this show before.
• Rams (+3) 19, Seahawks 13 - Jason winner, Dre loser - Finally, I started taking some games from Dre. Something seemed off about the spread for this game, making the "2-1" Seahwaks a road favorite against division rival St. Louis. Had Russell Wilson's game winning interception gone the other way, I doubt that the line would have had Sea -3. Nevertheless, the Rams rose up and slogged out a sloppy win that would have covered any theoretical spread.
• Niners (-4½) 34, Jets 0 - Dre winner, Jason loser - Back in week 1 I said that I'd never been so happy to lose a pick. Scratch that, NOW I've never been so happy to lose a pick. God, I hate the fucking Jets.
• Cardinals 24, Dolphins (+5) 21 (OT) - Jason winner, Dre loser - It would have made me happier if the Dolphins had hung on to win this game just so I don't have to see another "Power Poll" with the Cardinals in the #1 spot. Ridiculous.
• Broncos (-7) 37, Raiders 6 - Dre winner, Jason loser - When I lost picks this week to Dre, I lost them big! Niners 34-0? Didn't see it coming. Vikings special teams outscore the Lions? Nope, didn't see it either. Peyton Manning handing the Raiders their lunch? Let's just say I'm glad all losses count for the same. What NFL was I watching?
• Bengals (-1) 27, Jaguars 10 - Both winners - Seriously, we need to head to Vegas with the Bengal Bumslayer Rule. By my calculations, the Bengals will win 4 more games the rest of the season (Miami, Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland). Sadly, 7-9 wont get it done. The Bengals just don't play enough bums.
• Packers 28, Saints (+9) 27 - Both losers - Yes, I changed my pick, and over 20+ years of doing this, I don't think it's ever worked. Should I go on to lose the season to Dre by one game, I'll be able to point to this one game as the sole reason why. Of course, it's all nonsense, considering the Packers were on their way to rolling up the Saints until Graham Harrell decided to shit the bed and fumble on the Saints goal line. Aaron Rodgers better start wearing a visor, or he's gonne get the Curly treatment from other teams just to get Harrell some meaningful snaps. Matt Flynn he's not.
• Redskins (+1) 24, Bucs 22 - Jason winner, Dre loser - At this point, I might be the only remaining member of the Josh Freeman fan club, especially if people saw the tape of his first half against Washington. He got it turned around in the second half and even had his team up 1 with time running out, but in the end it was too much RG3 for the Bucs to handle. Hey Josh, it's a lot easier to win games when you don't let the other team get up 21-6 on you. Unless you're Tom Brady, then it's no big deal.
• Eagles (-1) 19, Giants 17 - Both winners - Ya gotta love the Eagles. Three wins by a combined 4 points. And the Giants! They've rolled up some also rans Bengal-style but are now 0-2 in their division. I can't make heads or tails of either one of these teams, so I won't even try. This whole division has 8-8 written all over it.
• Bears (+3½) 34, Cowboys 18 - Jason winner, Dre loser - I can just see Dre sitting there before I made my pick for this game going "please take Dallas, please take Dallas, please....awww dammit, I'm fucked." You can't mess with Bear Whispering.

Jason & Dre 10-5

2012 Week 4: What I Learned

• Some very exciting finishes this week, starting with the Thursday night Browns-Ravens game, which was a snore up until the finale.  I don't care that Cleveland almost won the game on the final throw, I just want props for nailing the score.  What's that?  I was off by one?  Oh no, my friends, Baltimore screwed up a routine extra point on their first TD, so the score really should have been 24-16, just like I said it would.  I will take full credit for that being the correct score, even though it wasn't.  The game went just like Jason and I thought it would, so nothing to talk about there.
• The Pats-Bills game didn't go like anyone thought it would.  Who saw an early Buffalo lead giving way to an eruption of New England points in the 4th quarter?  Who saw two 100-yard rushers and receivers for NE in the same game?  I cited a tough history at Buffalo for New England when I previewed the game, and that was a royal fuck-up on my part, because I recalled the 34-31 loss last year and the Lawyer Milloy Bowl, a shutout for the Bills in 2001.  Those are the only two losses that the Pats have suffered against Buffalo since the turn of the millennium.  If you're looking for a team that owns another, this is it.  And if you're looking for a team on a mission after early miscues, the Patriots might be the team.
• Speaking of ownage, that's what Houston has on the rest of the league through the first quarter of the season.  I don't want to necessarily say that the Texans have had a cupcake schedule early, but Miami, Jacksonville, Denver, and Tennessee doesn't read like a death wish of NFL title contenders.  But hey, they've done what they had to do.  On the issue of the Titans, look, I know that I'm the one guy in the world that was pushing Jake Locker for starting QB, and I still think they should start him because he won't get any better sitting behind Matthew Hasselbeck.  But if Locker hadn't gotten hurt again, the Titans may not have scored on the Texans despite Chris Johnson breaking off some good rushes.  Hasselbeck brings a veteran calming presence and a focus that Locker doesn't have yet.  He also brings the suck, which is why Houston's defenders were dancing into the end zone with the ball as much as Tennessee's receivers were.
• I think the Chiefs just turned it over again.  While I'm piling on, I think New England just scored another touchdown.
• Can we bury the Lions as a serious franchise again?  We had to do this last year when everyone thought they were going to challenge for a division title very soon, and I kept warning that they're not very strong mentally and not disciplined.  That was before their special teams decided that they'd like to become the weak link of the team.  No squad's ever allowed a punt and kickoff TD in consecutive games before Detroit last week and this week, so congrats are in order.  The game looked to be over after Percy Harvin's opening KO return for a TD, because all Minnesota had to do to keep the Lions at arm's length was have Christian Ponder throw deep balls in the direction of Detroit DB Bill Bentley and let him commit pass interference.  Minnesota's not very good.  But you know what they are right now?  Fucking better than Detroit.  No question.
• We both had Carolina hanging close with Atlanta and giving them a scare, but this was quite the scare.  Carolina should have won the game, but their defense once again let them down.  Joining Bentley in looking like they didn't belong on an NFL field was the Panthers' safety Haruki Nakamura, who kept getting torched by Roddy White for big plays when the Falcons needed them.  Carolina got a great pass rush and kept putting Matty Ice on his ass, but that's why he's Matty Ice--he kept getting up and making plays to keep the game alive.  The Panthers secondary was set up to let downfield plays happen because Michael Turner put down the bottle long enough to gash them for big runs.  He's so key to Atlanta's success.  And let's not let Cam Newton off the hook, as his 3rd-down fumble backwards to take a 1st down off the board led to the punt and the Falcons starting the game-winning drive at their own 1-yard line, which was fine for them because Roddy and Nakamura had one more date left.  Someone order Jim Schwartz and Ron Rivera new free safeties, please.
• Russell Wilson had to run for his life in St. Louis, and time ran out for him to get points for his Seahawks.  Yeah, it's hard to win when the opposing kicker (Greg Zuerlein) is nailing FGs from 58 and 60 yards, and yeah, it's hard when you give up a TD on a fake FG where the kicker threw to a WR just standing all alone at the goal line.  But it's also hard when your rookie QB, already struggling to string together completions, has to avoid a killer pass rush and lead a comeback in the air.  Just wasn't going to happen.  Eventually, Wilson started forcing passes, and the Rams got key interceptions to thwart the comeback.  What really sucks is that Seattle outran St. Louis by 100 yards.  Seattle has spunk and moxie and all that, but they can't win a game from behind through the air unless replacement referees are calling the game.
• Did the New York Jets do anything right against San Francisco?  Hmmm...didn't score a fucking point, got outrushed by 200 yards, gave up a Wildcat TD to the backup QB (which they just knew they would achieve themselves this year after the Tebow trade), gave up more sacks, more turnovers...ooh, here's something, they held Alex Smith to 143 yards in the air!  Now, the Jets had to throw for more than the 49ers if they held Smith to...huh, oh wait, look at that...Total Fraud only threw for 103 yards...in a game where they were losing all the way so they had to throw to get back in it...103 yards for the game.  Uh, um, wow.  I mean, just...wow.  So much for West Coast teams traveling east.
• I don't blame Arizona for not scouting Miami QB Ryan Tannehill or WR Brian Hartline.  Who the fuck are they?  They are the duo that lit the Cards up through the air in the desert, that's who.  431 yards for Tannehill, 253 of them to Hartline.  Props to Kevin Kolb for finding Andre Roberts twice and tying the score, forcing OT and letting the Arizona D force Tannehill into mistakes, completing the comeback with a FG after an interception.  I have to wonder, though--all the talk about Arizona being 4-0 and hot as hell dating back to the end of last season thanks to their top young defense, the question is, does a top young defense allow Ryan Tannehill to throw for 431 yards or Brian Hartline to catch 253 yards??  You think the Cards have a good defense?  Then why did they get dominated by Ryan Fucking Tannehill?
• Great game planning by Denver, as they didn't try anything very far downfield in the passing game.  Peyton Manning surgically cut his way through the Oakland defense with all underneath throws, letting his receivers operate in space.  I admired the scaling back of any long passes, but at the same time, I was terrified watching Manning ignore anything deep.  He's half a QB if he's never going to attempt anything over 15 yards.  The game took a snowball effect, as Manning slowly built a lead, and the more points the Broncos earned, the more pass pressure they dialed up on Carson Palmer, and the more hits Palmer took, until the thing was all downhill.  Can Denver do that against top teams?  That will make the difference between playoffs or no playoffs.
• Green Bay was unstoppable in the 1st half.  Jason was looking like a genius for changing his pick from New Orleans to the Packers.  Wha happened??  Aaron Rodgers missed a play or two, that's wha happened.  He was leading the Pack in the red zone for another TD drive when he got poked in the eye and had to come out of the game, and backup QB Lucas Graham Harrell fumbled a simple handoff to a RB, which the Saints recovered.  That led to a Drew Brees bomb TD pass and the Saints taking the lead.  So the Pack did what they should have done against a terrible NO defense, they just let the Saints hang around when they shouldn't have.  The better team won, but the lesser team covered.  It happens sometimes.  But it's guaranteed to happen when one of us changes his pick to go against said lesser team.
• Speaking of lesser teams, both Tampa Bay and Washington brought lesser-ranked pass defenses to battle, as in the two last-ranked pass defenses, and they didn't disappoint.  Tampa's Josh Freeman went for 299 yards in the air, and Washington's Robert Griffin III topped him with 323 passing yards.  Neither QB would be described as elite.  The difference in the game was, Tampa's D is, as I observed in their previous games, young and hungry and eager and very stupid.  At one point, they had RGIII backed up at his own 1-yard line, and they forced him into an incomplete pass on 3rd down.  One problem--they hit him very late and let the Redskins out of the shadow of their own goal post with a dumb personal foul.  TB had a rare late lead, but the defense couldn't hold on, and the Skins got a last-second FG to win it.  But Washington will still be in trouble for the season because that defense can't rely on the other team being dumb to overcome their own bad play.
• Michael Vick found himself at a Ku Klux Klan rally on Sunday night.  Every time he dropped back, angry people were chasing him and trying to murder him.  It's almost a miracle the Eagles won the game, which I guess indicates how I feel about the Eagles.  But I still have them winning the division because, as lucky as they are, they're still preferable over the Cowboys, Redskins, and Giants.  In a low-scoring dogfight, Vick found a rhythm in the 2nd half and strung together barely enough passes to get the win.  Eli Manning couldn't do the same for New York because Philly's Wide-9 pass rush harassed him as well.  The G-Men sorely missed Hakeem Nicks as the big possession receiver Eli can hit when in trouble.  Vick's scrambling ability also proved a big difference, but that's a surprise only because Andy Reid and Vick haven't been able to consistently figure out a way to take advantage of his feet on an every-week basis.
• What we saw on Monday night was Jay Cutler and Mike Tice respecting the defense they were playing, and as a result, they didn't call plays that left Cutler in jeopardy of getting his head torn off.  There's no guarantee that short slants and quick pops are going to work, so it's to Chicago's credit that they executed the plan in throttling the Cowboys.  But I think they grew up a lot during that game.  They knew that J'Marcus Russell Webb and the rest of that garbage offensive line had been struggling mightily, and DeMarcus Ware and the Boys were ready to feast.  So they took Dallas seriously and came up with plays that picked on the young secondary and exploited the linebackers as not ready to perform in pass coverage, all while keeping Cutler (mostly) clean.  Dallas was forced into boo-boos on offense because the Bears rarely blitz but whipped out the blitz packages for this game.  Tony Romo wasn't the only one affected by the speed of the Bears D; Dez Bryant couldn't get his hands up quick enough on several throws, and he didn't adjust his route on one of Romo's INTs, and Miles Austin had trouble finding room to get open, and Kevin Ogletree let a Romo pass tip off of his fingers for another INT.  It was a full team collapse for the world to see, and it's why I should have picked the Bears from the moment I heard about the game.

Week 4 Records--Dre & Jay 10-5, .667
YTD Records--Dre 36-25-2, .590; Jay 37-24-2, .607