| Fav | Spread | Dog | Dre | Jay | ||
| Thu. Nite | ||||||
| Ariz (4-0) | 2½ | STL (2-2) | StL 17-3 | StL | StL | |
| Sunday | ||||||
| Atl (4-0) | 3 | WASH (2-2) | Atl | Atl | ||
| PIT (1-2) | 3½ | Phi (3-1) | Phi | Phi | ||
| GB (2-2) | 7 | IND (1-2) | GB | Ind | ||
| NYG (2-2) | 9½ | Cle (0-4) | NY | Cle | ||
| CIN (3-1) | 3 | Mia (1-3) | Mia | Cin | ||
| Bal (3-1) | 6½ | KC (1-3) | Bal | Bal | ||
| CAR (1-3) | 2½ | Sea (2-2) | Sea | Car | ||
| Chi (3-1) | 5½ | JACK (1-3) | Jack | Chi | ||
| MIN (3-1) | 5½ | Tenn (1-3) | Min | Tenn | ||
| NE (2-2) | 6½ | Den (2-2) | Den | Den | ||
| SF (3-1) | 10 | Buf (2-2) | SF | Buf | ||
| Sun. Nite | ||||||
| NO (0-4) | 3½ | SD (3-1) | SD | SD | ||
| Mon. Nite | ||||||
| Hou (4-0) | 9 | NYJ (2-2) | Hou | Hou | ||
Some of our thoughts and observations included:
- The love affair with RG3 goes back home to DC as the Redskins host the perfect Falcons. We're going with Atlanta to stay perfect. Not only can I not figure out how Robert Griffin III can keep averaging well over 8 yards per pass attempt when he has almost no weapons, not only does the no-account, sorry-ass Washington pass rush get to try to harness Matty Ice, but a stat, and a very simple one: Washington is 0-7 in their last 7 home games. The Falcons haven't played down to the competition yet. Don't start this week, please.
- Pittsburgh is coming off a bye, and veteran defenders Troy Polamalu and James Harrison should give it a go against Michael Vick and the Eagles in a fight for the state of Pennsylvania. But Jason and I are getting worried about the health and age of the Steelers defense. Still looking to play at a high level on offense despite being 3-1, we like Vick and the Eagles to get the win. Jay calls Philly "the most underachieving 3-1 team ever," but we still like them over a slower than usual Pittsburgh team compiling only 5 sacks and 1 pick through their first 3 games.
- If not for Graham Harrell's butterfingers, the Packers were well on their way to covering the number against New Orleans. Someone get Aaron Rodgers a visor to protect those eyes. I will take Green Bay to build on that momentum and take out a game Indianapolis squad coming off a bye. If that Pack D backslides and lets Andrew Luck throw his way back, the Colts could cover, but I'm hoping they can get a lead and rush the passer and have some fun. Jason will go with the Luck of the Horseshoe (see what I did there?) to cover that TD. When I asked why, he profoundly responded, "Um...yeah." So he's got a solid grasp on why he expects Indy to stay close with Green Bay.
- I've been burned so many times picking the Giants to cover a big number that I really thought I would go with Cleveland as Jason did before I studied my precious stats. Jay, showing his age, talked about the Browns hanging tough like NKOTB, and I think I just threw up in my mouth a little. Yes, Cleveland has shown fight in all of their games. They've also shown that they suck. They will bring the 28th-ranked pass defense to Jersey to face Eli Manning's 2nd-ranked pass offense. I can see Eli throwing for 300 yards even without Ramses Barden or Hakeem Nicks.
- The Bengal Bumslayer Rule will sway Jason to take Cincinnati over Miami, who sport a bumtastic 1-3 record. Why am I picking the Dolphins for the upset win? Because I think they're a smidge above "Bum." Arizona's defense was overrated, but not where they should have given up over 400 yards to Ryan Tannehill and over 250 yards to Brian Hartline. Cincy's defense should accommodate Miami putting up more big numbers. The Bengals are giving up a massive 5.4 yards per carry and 7.7 yards per throw. The Andy Dalton-to-A.J. Green Connection probably won't be derailed, but the Fins may have the last possession, and the last laugh.
- I had bad flashbacks of that playoff game a few years ago, when Jamaal Charles was supposed to lead Kansas City to a defining win over Baltimore. Charles burst for a big TD and a 7-0 lead, and the Chiefs proceeded to act like they just realized that they don't belong on a major stage. This year, KC and "defensive guru" Romeo Crennel is giving up 8.5 yards per throw. Once again, they're not ready for a major stage. Jason says there will be a banner flying over the game that will read "Fire Pioli, Bench Cassel." The only reason Crennel isn't in that banner is, he just got there. Be patient, Romeo. They'll hate you too imminently.
- What a great test for a Seattle defense that has performed admirably this year thus far. The Carolina Panthers are far from perfect, but they are an extremely potent offense that will maul you if you're not careful. Jason will go with the Panthers and Cam Newton to build off of their showing against Atlanta and knock off the Seahawks making a long trip. I'll go with Seattle in a close one. Marshawn Lynch can go Beast Mode on this D, especially without Jon Beason, who's one of Carolina's best tacklers. And as long as Haruki Nakamura is running around for the Panthers looking like a fan who wandered in off the street, the opposition always has a chance.
- Now is where I get silly. Chicago looked awesome Monday night in killing the always overhyped Dallas Cowboys, and now they get to go to Florida to face what may be the worst team in the league, the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jason and many, many other folks cannot fathom the Bears blowing this contest, and they like Chi-Town to rumble. He LOVES the under, says it feels like an ugly 13-3 win. Now, I'm not completely insane. I'm not picking Blaine Gabbert to beat the Bears. I'm picking Maurice Jones-Drew to beat the Bears. Not because of any stupid grudge there may still be concerning MJD's criticism of Jay Cutler's toughness on Twitter a couple of years back during the NFC title game. No, I'm picking this one straight up because I don't trust Mike Tice and Cutler to respect their opponent well enough to come up with a great game plan like they did in Dallas. Consequently, the turnovers caused by Cutler getting belted will give the Jags great field position all evening, and Jones-Drew can march into the end zone with little resistance. I hope I'm wrong and that Chicago can come up with the right offensive game plan. But I don't trust the parties involved to respect Jacksonville's defense like they did DeMarcus Ware and the Cowboys.
- Tennessee smells. I can smell them from here. The Titans, not the people. I live in Tennessee now, and trust me, the smell of these fine folks is much appreciated now that I'm far away from the smells of the panhandlers and bums of Chicago. Anyway, the Titans will send Matt Hasselbeck out as QB after Jake Locker hurt himself again, and that's enough to give them their first win this year, according to Jason. Minnesota's due to fall back to the pack. He's right about that, but I don't think Tennessee's the team to do it. The Vikings should step on a far inferior team and ascend to 4-1. I'm not calling them a division champ or anything, but they're a not-terribly-bad squad.
- I hoped this game would be on prime time, but two surgeons, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, will perform in Massachusetts when the Broncos play the Patriots in the late afternoon. And although Jay and I both think one surgeon has a much better arm these days, we like the other surgeon to keep it close and cover a kinda big spread. Manning may not be what he was, but he's good enough to carve up a bad D and keep Denver in the game. As an aside, I wonder if a coach can get away with putting the entire active roster on the injury report as "questionable" as a way to stick it back at Bill Belichick. He's a real penis.
- Can Buffalo get out to an early advantage and force Alex Smith and the 49ers to play from behind? No? Then this is my Lock of the Week. Jason thinks otherwise. Buffalo's not the pathetic Jets, he contends, and the Bills can maybe hang close enough to San Francisco to win the pick on a garbage-time TD. I don't think Buffalo is as bad as the Jets, either, and they should avoid the shutout. But they're not much better, and Buffalo's defense should allow the Niners to have their way with them and do whatever they want.
- It's the very rare double-road team dip on our two nighttime picks. First, we're going with San Diego to step into the Bayou and keep the New Orleans Saints winless. We still haven't learned that interim interim head coach's name. That's because he hasn't done shit to warrant the recognition. Every time the Saints score, the Chargers should bolt right back, because that's how utterly horrendous the Saints defense has been. They need a new bounty system, I'm telling ya. I may not have much respect for Norv Turner, but I can't pick him to get outcoached by an interim v.2.
- And Monday night, Jon Gruden gets to make ice cream out of horseshit and try to tell a nation how good Mark Sanchez and the New York Jets can be if they tie it together and tighten it up. What a crock that will be. The plain fact is, the Jets don't have a real quarterback on their fucking roster, and they expect to win like that? That outing Week 1 for Sanchez against the Bills, he should get the DVD of that game framed and forever preserved. That Houston team they gotta face is going to get a hoot out of these Jets as they try to play and contend with one of the league's elite squads. The Texans aren't going to be in a hurry because there's no bonus for violating your opponent quicker than normal. They're going to take their time, they're going to beat the Jets, it's going to be clean and painless, and it should be by more than 9 points. Even if Jesus is allowed into the game as the replacement QB.
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